ppp final ifm
TRANSCRIPT
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A Presentation on
Presented to: Presented by: Nikunj Patel Sachin Nandha
Sandip Gunge
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Introducton
• The theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) explains movements in the exchange rate between two countries’ currencies by changes in the countries’ price levels.
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The Law of One Price Law of one price
• Identical goods sold in different countries must sell for the same price when their prices are expressed in terms of the same currency.
– Example: If the dollar/pound exchange rate is $1.50 per pound, a sweater that sells for $45 in New York must sell for £30 in London.
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PiUS = (E$/€) x (Pi
E)
where:
PiUS is the dollar price of good i when
sold in the U.S.
PiE is the corresponding euro price in
Europe
E$/€ is the dollar/euro exchange rate
The Law of One Price
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Purchasing Power ParityEPPP
$/€ = PUS/PE
where:
PUS is the dollar price of a reference commodity basket sold in the United States
PE is the euro price of the same basket in Europe
CountryGDP (PPP) $
United States 13,811,200
Eurozone 10,371,393b
People's Republic of China 7,055,079
Japan 4,283,529
India 3,092,126
Germany 2,727,514
Russia 2,088,207
France 2,061,884
United Kingdom 2,046,780
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The Relationship Between PPP and the Law of One Price• The law of one price applies to individual
commodities, while PPP applies to the general price level.
Purchasing Power Parity
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Absolute PPP and Relative PPP• Absolute PPP
• Relative PPP
Purchasing Power Parity
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• The monetary approach makes a number of specific predictions about the long-run effects on the exchange rate of changes in:
– Money supplies
– Interest rate
– Output levels
A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP
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Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price
The Dollar/Exchange Rate and Relative U.S./German Price Levels
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The failure of the empirical evidence to support the PPP and the law of one price is related to:• Trade barriers and nontradable
• Departures from free competition
• International differences in price level measurement
Explaining the Problems with PPP
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PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run• Departures from PPP may be even greater in the short-
run than in the long run.– Example: An abrupt depreciation of the dollar against
foreign currencies causes the price of farm equipment in the U.S. to differ from that of foreign’s until markets adjust to the exchange rate change.
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Explaining the Problems with PPPPrice Levels and Real Incomes, 1992
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The Real Exchange Rate
Real depreciation of the dollar against the euro
Real appreciation of the dollar against the euro is the opposite of a real depreciation.
Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate
Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates
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• There are two specific causes that explain why the long-run values of real exchange rates can change:
– A change in world relative demand for American products
– A change in relative output supply
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Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium
Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates
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The most important determinants of long-run swings in nominal exchange rates (assuming that all variables start out at their long-run levels):
A shift in relative money supply levels
A change in relative output demand
A change in relative output supply
When all disturbances are monetary in nature, exchange rates obey relative PPP in the long run
Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates
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Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates
The Real Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate, 1950-2000
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Sectoral Productivity Growth Differences and the Change in the Relative Price of Nontraded Goods, 1970-1985
Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates
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Thank You