ppcr expert group reporting meeting 27 january 2009 world bank climate investment funds report of...

PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January 2009

World Bank Climate Investment Funds

Report of PPCR Expert Group on Country Selection Process

27 January 2009

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Climate Change in AfricaPPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January 2009

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Remit

• Identify 5-10 countries or groups or countries for participation in PPCR

• Address a number of criteria:

vulnerability

eligibility

country preparedness & rapid results

country distribution (regional)

Hazard types

Coherence & value addition

Replicability & sustainability

Scalability & development impact

Context

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Addressing criteria in ToR

Criteria

• Hazard (V), vulnerability (I) & preparedness (III) addressed explicitly

• Country distribution (IV) addressed through choice of regions

• Eligibility (II) considered - countries not selected if ineligible

• Replicability & sustainability (VII) related to regional contexts

• Scalability & development impact (VIII) function of development & hazard contexts

• Coherence & value addition (VI) depends on specific national contexts

• To a significant extent, VI, VII & VIII will depend on nature of programmes & projects supported, & how they are implemented - cannot pre-judge

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Practical considerations

• Short timescale

• How to bring some coherence & transparency to process?

• What data to use?

• How to deploy data? Problems with indicator-driven approaches…

• How to address criteria?

• How to ensure selection relevant to climate change?

How to approach the problem?

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Risk assessment approach

• Address climate change risks faced by countries

• Risk arises from interaction of hazards with underlying vulnerability

The EG’s approach

Hazard as an entry point for analysis

STEP 1

• Identify long-term, large-scale climate change hazards

• Select climate change “hot-spots” where these hazards are high

STEP 2

• Identify which countries are most vulnerable to hazard(s) in question

Use indicators relevant to region, hazard & development context

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Hazards are not just about extremes and variability

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Climate change “hot-spots” in Africa

Source: IPCC (2007)

North Africa / Maghreb

• Extreme desiccation - risks to water availability, agriculture, rangelands, food security

Southern Africa

• Desiccation coupled with risk of landscape/ecosystem collapse in greater Kalahari region & ENSO impacts

• Risks to livelihoods, food security, water resources

Sahel

• Highly uncertain, increased rainfall variability, possibility of wetter conditions but not necessarily sustained

• How to deal with decadal-scale variability & longer? Risks of maladaptation

Annual temperature & precipitation changes over Africa between 1980-1999 & 2080-2099 from MMD-A1B

simulations, men for 21 models.

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ISO3V10 Country LECZ CDRIa IWS FI HDI CVI CDVI CDRIb RAIDZA Algeria 3.96 0.71 85 4 104 4 0 4 --EGY Egypt 38.19 0.33 98 4 112 4 0 4 --LBY Libya 15.60 0 - <2.5 56 0 0 .. --MRT Mauritania 29.25 190.22 53 10 137 4 13 3 3.38MAR Morocco 8.04 1.32 81 6 126 4 1 4 --TUN Tunisia 14.77 2.13 93 <2.5 91 4 1 4 --

Indicators for vulnerability screening in North Africa / Maghreb

• LECZ - population in low-elevation coastal zone

• CRDIa - total no. affected by climate-related disasters 1978-2007, scaled by 2007 popn.

• IWS - % of population with access to improved water source

• FI - food insecurity inferred from % of population undernourished

• HDI - human development index rank, proxy for adaptive capacity

• CVI - climate vulnerability index (emphasising water)

• CDVI - number of occurrences in top fifth of vulnerability index with 13 different weights

• CDRIb - historical climate disaster risk on scale 1-5 based across related indices for 1990s

• RAI - Resource allocation index, proxy for country preparedness

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Other “hot-spot” regions identified

South Asia: Exposed to changes in water availability resulting from loss of Himalayan glaciers. Loss of water outside monsoon season, also extremes, SLR.

Southeast Asia: High exposure to sea-level rise and associated coastal climate change hazards due to low-lying land, megadeltas, high population.

Central Asia: Exposed to desiccation as a result of high temperature increases, significant reductions in rainfall & loss of snow-melt from mountain regions.

Andean region: Exposed to severe reductions in water availability due to glacier loss, also other hazards linked to ENSO, circulation changes.

Caribbean: High exposure to a suite of hazards associated with sea-level rise, possible changes in tropical storms, ecosystem loss, desiccation & water loss.

Pacific Islands: Similar to Caribbean region, with additional problems of isolation & fact that many islands are low-lying atolls.

+ North Africa/Magreb, Southern Africa & Sahel (previous slide) = 9 regions

Based on projections from IPCC AR4 (2007), expert judgment & review of other, post-AR4 literature.

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Countries & regional groups selected

Country or group Alternate Possible regional group

1 - -

2 - -

3 Bolivia (Andean region) Peru + Colombia, Ecuador

4 Bangladesh (South Asia) India + Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives

5 Nepal (South Asia) Bhutan Combine Nepal & Bhutan

6 - -

7 Tajikistan (Central Asia) Uzbekistan + Turkmenistan, Kyrghyz Rep., Kazakhstan

8 Mauritania (N. Africa) Morocco

9 Zambia (southern Africa) Angola

10 Niger (Sahel) Chad + Mali &/or Sudan

11 Mozambique (African LDCs) Ethiopia, Sierra Leone None proposed

Caribbean region (Dominica, Guyana, Haiti)

Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines (Southeast Asia)

Pacific region (countries TBC)

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Country distributionLeast Developed Countries (LDCs) Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

Bolivia Caribbean Selection

Bangladesh Pacific Selection

Nepal Coastal zone and sea-level rise

Cambodia Bangladesh

Zambia Caribbean region

Mauritania Pacific region

Mozambique Southeast Asia group

Niger

Haiti

Drought risk and water availability.Mountain Region (snow and ice melt, with watersupply, ecological zone and other consequences) Zambia

Bolivia Mauritania

Nepal Niger

Floods

Bangladesh

Cambodia

Vietnam

Guyana

Philippines

Nepal

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• Global distribution - regional balance

• Diverse environments & development contexts

• A range of key long-term hazards also linked with extreme events

• Identification of additional high-risk African LDCs

Comments on countries selected

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Strengths of the EG’s approach

• Coherent methodology & conceptual framework

• Transparent process

• Combines expert judgment with indicator-based data

• Not reductionist - not based on single-number index

• Addresses contextual nature of risk (to an extent)

• Is climate change specific (except for preparedness indicator & HDI)

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Caveats

• Top-down approach

• Characterisation of hazard & vulnerability necessarily crude

• Based on projections that may be conservative - may miss certain hazards and/or underestimate their severity

• Focuses on large-scale, long-term, systemic hazards & risks - countries may experience high risks due to other combinations of hazard & vulnerability, e.g. combinations of extremes etc.

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• More participatory selection process might be desirable

has its own risks - easy to lose climate change focus

Alternatives & improvements

• Method could be refined by developing better indicators

Hazard index addressing different national context

Vulnerability indicators targeting national hazard & development contexts

Risk indices combining hazard & vulnerability

Time & resource intensive undertaking, but might start with one region

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End of presentation

ppcr expert group reporting meeting 27 january 2009 world bank climate investment funds report of...

Documents

africa source

variability slide

countries risk

prejudge slide

egs approach hazard

interaction of hazards

tor criteria hazard

country selection process