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SOCIO-POLITICAL OPINION RESEARCH REPORT
CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE – NORTH MACEDONIA
TEAM INSTITUTE AND STARR OPINION RESEARCH
JUNE 2020
THIS RESEARCH REPORT WAS PREPARED BY THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE – NORTH MACEDONIA (NDI), TEAM INSTITUTE AND STARR OPINION RESEARCH. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF NDI.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3
The public mood has turned pessimistic.
A sizable segment of voters shifted their outlook for North Macedonia from neutral to pessimistic. In March, 30% said
the country was headed in the right direction, 35% were neutral and 33% said North Macedonia was headed in the
wrong direction. In June, 29% indicated right direction, 26% were neutral (loss of nine percentage points) and 44%
wrong direction (increase in 11 percentage points).
Economic concerns are top-of-mind.
After three months of withstanding the pandemic, citizens’ primary concerns are now focused on the economy and, to a
lesser degree, governance (i.e. Rule of Law, Justice), at levels similar to before the pandemic. Compared to March,
more citizens’ surveyed report that people’s lives have gotten worse in the past three years. Nearly four in ten (38%)
feel lives in North Macedonia have gotten worse, a 14-point increase from March; 21% say it has gotten a lot worse, a
10-point jump from March. Among ethnic Albanians, the percentage feeling things are worse tripled, from 13% in March
to 36% in June.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4
Little substantial political movement. The elections remain competitive.
Traditional indicators of levels of trust in institutions and favorability of political parties and politicians have generally not
changed from their previous low March levels. The parliamentary ballot tests remain competitive between the two
coalitions. This is consistent with the high levels that said in March they would not change their selection.
More than eight in ten who selected a party (82%) said they were certain with their vote, and 13% said they might
change their mind. Among the most supported parties, 83% of VMRO supporters were firm in their decision, 87% for
the SDSM BESA coalition, 85% for DUI and 82% for Alliance for Albanians and Alternativa.
Political participation remains high, but trust in the electoral process has waned.
Nearly seven in ten citizens (69%) plan to vote in the elections, despite the health concerns, with 40% saying they will
definitely vote. However, fewer than half of citizens (46%) are confident the upcoming election will be free and fair, a
drop in six points from 52% in March. Four in ten (42% ) lack confidence, with nearly one in four (23%) not confident at
all. Of those who lack confidence in the election, three in ten (29%) cited pressures, manipulations and forgery as the
reason.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
5
Disinformation remains a concern for voters.
Broad concern (57%, similar to the 54% in March) remains that disinformation can impact the election. Eighteen (18%)
are very concerned, similar to the 15% who felt this way in March.
Nine in ten citizens (90%) reported being exposed to disinformation, similar to the rate reported in March. Television
remains the leading source (68% said they were exposed to it). Since March, there has been an increase in social
media, from 45% to 53%, and web sites, from 21% to 28%.
Support for Euroatlantic integration remains strong.
Support for joining NATO remains strong with 74% supportive and 18% opposed. More than eight in ten adult citizens
of North Macedonia (84%) were aware the country joined NATO. Of the 84% aware of the news, 69% said it made
them more hopeful for the country and 13% said it made them less hopeful.
Citizens remain strongly supportive of North Macedonia joining the EU. Eight in ten citizens of North Macedonia (79%)
support joining the EU, and 57% strongly support this move. Citizens are most drawn to the future economic benefits of
joining the EU.
Contents Research MethodologyI
II
III
IV
V
Demographics of Respondents
General Outlook
Favorability of Political Parties and Leaders
VI
Institutional Trust and Job Approval
Parliamentary Elections and Party Preferences
EU and NATO AccessionVIII
Key Reforms
Media Usage and Disinformation
VII
IX
X
Good Neighborly Relations
I. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
8
RESEARCH
METHODOLOGY
QUANTITATIVE: Face to Face (F2F) Computer-Aided
Personal Interviewing (CAPI)
QUANTITATIVE: Face to Face (F2F) Computer-Aided
Personal Interviewing (CAPI)
Time Frame February 26 to March 5, 2020 June 12 to June 21, 2020
Population Citizens of the Republic of North Macedonia,
aged 18 years and older
Citizens of the Republic of North Macedonia,
aged 18 years and older
Sample Design Nationally representative, multistage stratified sample of
1,212 respondents aged 18+. Households are distributed
proportionally in urban and rural areas and by ethnicity in
all eight regions of the country.
Nationally representative, multistage stratified sample of
1,213 respondents aged 18+. Households are distributed
proportionally in urban and rural areas and by ethnicity in all
eight regions of the country.
Sample Size 1,212 respondents
Estimated margin of еrror of +2.81 percentage points
at the 95% level of confidence
1,213 respondents
Estimated margin of error of +2.81 percentage points
at the 95% level of confidence
Research Team
Interviewer network of 45 interviewers and
10 regional supervisors
Interviewer network of 50 interviewers and
10 regional supervisors
Average Length of
Interview
25 minutes 18 minutes
Special Procedures All the interviewers were given a protocol with safety
measures to employ to conduct research during COVID-19.
Weighting Data is weighted according to 4 variables: gender, age,
ethnicity and statistical regions, SSO, 2013
Data is weighted according to 4 variables: gender, age,
ethnicity and statistical regions, SSO, 2013
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY – TRACKING STUDYQUANTITATIVE RESEARCH: SURVEY OF REPRESENTATIVE SAMEPLE OF 1,213 RESPONDENTS
NOTES
9
The estimated margin of sampling error for the survey is ±2.81 percentage points at the 95% confidence
interval.
• Meaning: If the same survey is conducted 100 times, we expect that in 95 of those surveys the
responses would fall somewhere within our margin of sampling error.
• The margin of error will be larger among subgroups of respondents, such as among ethnic
Macedonians and ethnic Albanians.
• In looking at voting preference between the two parties, an advantage within 5.6 percentage point is
still "within the margin of error" and therefore the party ahead may actually be behind, or tied, or may
have a greater lead.
The research provides opinions in a point in time and changes over time.
All sample surveys and polls may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to
sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error.
Due to the rounding of numbers, the sum of the percentages may not always be 100.
OBJECTIVES OF THE PROGRAM
10
The goal of this program is to promote citizens’ input into the development of political party
electoral strategies and platforms ahead of the 2020 parliamentary elections
The objective of the survey is to identify and track broader social and political trends of all
citizens of North Macedonia
POLITICAL CONTEXT
11
• 26 February: First case of COVID-19 confirmed in the Republic of North Macedonia.
• 18 March: The President of North Macedonia proclaimed a state of emergency, the first time since its independence.
• 22 March: Parliamentary elections scheduled for April 12 are officially postponed by a governmental decree.
• 25 March: The European Council decided to take the next step in opening EU accession negotiations with North
Macedonia.
• 27 March: North Macedonia joined NATO as its 30th member.
• 10 June: DUI's President Ali Ahmeti announced that they are proposing a concept for a first Albanian Prime Minister.
• 15 June: The President of the Republic of North Macedonia Stevo Pendarovski proclaimed a state of emergency for
eight days, i.e. until 22 June, after the political parties reached an agreement to hold elections on July 15.
Proclaimed Election Day will be a non-working day for all citizens of the Republic of North Macedonia.
• 18 June: Verdicts were reached in the "Extortion" (racket) case, with Bojan Jovanovski sentenced to 9 years in prison,
and Katica Janeva to 7 years.
• 24 June: Official start of the parliamentary election campaign.
II. DEMOGRAPHICS OF RESPONDENTS
DEMOGRAPHICS OF RESPONDENTS
13
7.6%
29.3%
8.3%
9.0%
8.5%
11.7%
10.7%
14.9%
Survey Distribution by Statistical Regions
65%
25%
10%
Macedonians
Albanians
Other
34%
36%
30%
18-34
35-54
55+
50%50%
57%Urban population
Rural population 43%
Survey Distribution by Settlement
Survey Distribution by Ethnicity
Survey Distribution by Gender
Survey Distribution by Age Groups
Skopje
Northeast
East
SoutheastVardar
Pelagonija
Southwest
Polog
III. GENERAL OUTLOOK
TREND: GENERAL OUTLOOKOverall, is the country moving in the right or wrong direction?
15
30%
35%33%
29%
26%
44%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Right direction Neutral-neither right nor wrongdirection
Wrong direction
Feb/March
June
9%- 9%
+ 11%
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
16
29%
26%
44%
30%
27%
42%
27%
19%
54%
32%34%
31%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Right direction Neutral-neither right nor wrong direction Wrong direction
Total
Macedonian
Albanian
Other
GENERAL OUTLOOKOverall, is the country moving in the right or wrong direction?
NOTE: Increase in
wrong direction
emphasized among
ethnic Albanians
(+28%)
TOP ISSUEIn your opinion, what is the MOST serious problem facing the country today?
Economic issues
Governance
issues
33%
31%
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
17
%
COVID 19 22%
4
5
1
1
2
9
18
22
6
27
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Health
General political situation
Interethnic relations
Integration in the EU
Human rights, democracy and freedom
Judiciary, justice
Crime and corruption
Situation with COVID 19
Standard of living
Economy and employment
NOTE: All other responses
have less than 1%
18
35%
48%
0,4%
33%31%
22%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Economic issues Governance issues COVID 19
Feb/March
June
17%
22%
NOTE: Decrease in governance
issues emphasized among
ethnic Albanians
- 17%
+ 22%
TREND: TOP ISSUEIn your opinion, what is the MOST serious problem facing the country today?
19
TREND: TOP ISSUE In your opinion, what is the MOST serious problem facing the country today?
3%
6%
1%
3%
4%
15%
24%
0,4%
8%
27%
4%
5%
1%
1%
2%
9%
18%
22%
6%
27%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Health
General political situation
Interethnic relations
Integration in the EU
Human rights, democracy and freedom
Judiciary, justice
Crime and corruption
Situation with COVID 19
Standard of living
Economy and employment
June
Feb / March
8%
+22%
- 6%
- 6%
Economic issues
Governance
issues
33%
31%
COVID-19 22%
June
TOP TWO ISSUESIn your opinion, what are the TWO MOST serious problems facing the country today?
Economic issues
Governance
issues
66%
59%
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
20
%
COVID-19 39%
1
0
2
1
1
1
3
3
11
13
39
1
3
5
19
31
15
51
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Do not know
Refuse to answer
Other
All of the above
Infrastructure
Pollution, environment
Education
Security, stability
Health
General political situation
Situation with COVID 19
Interethnic relations
Integration in the EU
Human rights, democracy and freedom
Judiciary, justice
Crime and corruption
Standard of living
Economy and employment
TREND: CURRENT SITUATION, AS COMPARED TO 2017Thinking about the past three years, do you think people’s lives in our country have…?
21
11%
13%
42%
26%
6%
21%
17%
31%
24%
5%
0 10 20 30 40 50
Gotten a lot worse
Gotten a little worse
Not changed
Improved a little
Improved a lot June
Feb / March
- 11%
+ 10%
42%
24%
29%
31%
38%
Feb/ March June
32%
Not
changed
Worsened
Improved
CURRENT SITUATION, AS COMPARED TO 2017Thinking about the past three years, do you think people’s lives in our country have…?
28%
Not Changed
Improved
Worse
38% 30% 36% 29% 39%
22
Base: 788 Base: 298Base: 127
AMONG ETHNIC
MACEDONIANSAMONG ETHNIC
ALBANIANSAMONG
OTHER ETHNICITIES
+ 8%+ 24% + 21%
NOTE: 8% increase for people’s
lives have gotten worse among
ethnic Macedonians
NOTE: 24% increase for people’s
lives have gotten worse among
ethnic Albanians
NOTE: 21% increase for people’s
lives have gotten worse among
other ethnicities
IV. INSTITUTIONAL TRUST AND JOB APPROVAL
INSTITUTIONAL TRUSTTo what degree do you trust or not trust the following?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
24
2
3
3
4
5
4
8
11
11
11
12
15
17
20
17
19
18
20
17
25
21
28
20
21
22
21
24
18
20
22
18
17
46
43
42
36
37
24
36
29
1
2
3
1
1
1
1
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Courts
The Public Prosecutors Office
State Commission for Prevention of Corruption
Political Parties
Parliament
Media
Technical Government
Presidency
I fully trust them I trust them I neither trust nor distrust them I have no trust I have no trust at all Do not know
30% 46%
25% 54%
24% 46%
22% 57%
19% 54%
15% 66%
14% 64%
13% 68%
Trust No trust
25
12%
16%
18%
19%
21%
25%
25%
35%
13%
14%
15%
19%
22%
24%
25%
30%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Courts
The Public Prosecutors Office
State Commission for Prevention of Corruption
Political Parties
Parliament
Media
Technical Government
Presidency
June
Feb/March
% that said “I fully trust them” or “I trust them”
- 5%
TREND: INSTITUTIONAL TRUST To what degree do you trust or not trust the following?
70%
62%
57%
51%
54%
38%
48%
40%
68%
64%
66%
54%
57%
46%
54%
46%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Courts
The Public Prosecutors Office
State Commission for Prevention of Corruption
Political Parties
Parliament
Media
Technical Government
PresidencyJune
Feb/March
26
% that said “I have no trust” or “I have no trust at all”
+ 6%
+ 6%
+ 8%
+ 7%
TREND: INSTITUTIONAL TRUST To what degree do you trust or not trust the following?
V. FAVORABILITY OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND LEADERS
50% 56%64% 67%
74% 78%70% 75% 69%
79%
41% 39%28% 29%
16% 15% 16% 17% 17% 11%
28
Feb / March June
SDSM
Favorable
Feb / March June
VMRO - DPMNE
Unfavorable
Feb / March June
DUI
June
ALLIANCE FOR
ALBANIANS AND
ALTERNATIVA
Feb / March June
BESA
TREND: FAVORABILITY OF POLITICAL PARTIESPlease tell me if you have a very favorable view, somewhat favorable view, somewhat unfavorable view or very unfavorable view of
each political party.
+ 7%+ 5% + 10%
+ 3%
+ 4%
49% 54%64% 68% 74% 80%
71% 77%69% 74% 70%
78%
44% 40%25% 28%
16% 15% 17% 17% 15% 15% 11% 11%
29
Favorable
Unfavorable
Zoran Zaev
Feb / March June
Hristijan Mickoski
Feb / March June
Ali Ahmeti
Feb / March June
Zijadin Sela
Feb / March June
Billal Kasami
Feb / March June
Afrim Gashi
Feb / March June
TREND: FAVORABILITY OF POLITICIANSPlease tell me if you have a very favorable view, somewhat favorable view, somewhat unfavorable view or very unfavorable view of
the following individuals.
+ 5%
+ 4%
+ 6% + 6% + 5% + 8%
+ 3%- 4%
VI. PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND PARTY
PREFERENCES
LIKELIHOOD OF VOTINGHow likely are you to vote in the parliamentary elections if they are held in July 2020?
69% Likely to vote
23% Less likely or not voting
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
31
6
2
13
10
29
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Do not know
Refuses to answer
Definitely will not vote
Probably will not vote
Probably will vote
Definitely will vote
%
TREND: LIKELIHOOD OF VOTINGHow likely are you to vote in the parliamentary elections if they are held in April/July 2020?
32
76%
18%
69%
23%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Likely to vote Less likely or not voting
Feb / March
June
(Definitely + probably)
- 7%
+ 5%
NOTE: 9% decrease among ethnic
Macedonians and 15% decrease
among ethnic Albanians in likelihood
of voting. 5% increase among other
ethnic groups
32%
8%
40%
29%
10%
Feb/ March June
44%
Probably will
vote
Probably will
not vote
Definitely
will vote
Definitely
will not vote 10% 13%
CONFIDENCE IN THE ELECTION PROCESSHow confident are you that the parliamentary elections will be conducted free and fairly?
46% Confident
41% Not Confident
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
33
12
1
23
19
29
17
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Do not know
Refuses to answer
Not confident at all
A little confident
Somewhat confident
Very confident
%
NOTE: 91% of SDSM Coalition
and 27% of VMRO-DPMNE
voters are confident the
elections will be free and fair
34
TREND: CONFIDENCE IN THE ELECTION PROCESSHow confident are you that the parliamentary elections will be conducted free and fairly?
NOTE: Decrease in
confidence highlighted
among ethnic Albanians
19
33
21
1817
29
19
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Very confident Somewhat confident A little confident Not confident at all
Feb / March
June
%
+ 5%
CONFIDENCE IN THE ELECTION PROCESSIF NOT CONFIDENT IN THE ELECTION SYSTEM: What are the reasons you are not confident elections will be free and fair?
35
AMONG THE 41% OF PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN THE ELECTION PROCESS
7%
3%
5%
2%
4%
5%
6%
12%
13%
15%
29%
0 10 20 30 40
Do not know
Refuses to answer
Other
No conditions, without clean voters list, monitoring mission
Low turnout
International influence
I do not trust the political parties
Corruption, bribery
Covid 19 pandemic
We never have fair elections, there are always irregularities
Pressures to vote, manipulations and forgery
Base: 504 respondents
46
41%
13
Little or not confident at all
HISTORY OF POLITICAL PRESSUREIn the last three years, were you, a member of your family, a relative or someone you personally know subjected to pressure such
as force, threats, vote-buying or other illegal means, to vote in a particular way?
18%
EXPOSED TO PRESSURE
(Know someone or
personally pressured)
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
36
7
5
3
16
72
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Do not know
Refuse to answer
I was personally subjected to pressure
I personally know people who weresubjected to pressure
I was neither subjected to a pressure norknow people who we
MULTIPLE ANSWERS
89 11
91 9
9.5
9.5
16.5
1.5
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.8
1.3
1.3
5.7
7.2
21.2
24.8
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Do not know
Refuse to answer
Will not vote
Invalid ballot
Other
People's Party of Roma
Political Party Voice for Macedonia
MORO "Worker's Party"
Never North "Only Macedonia"
DPA
Levica
Integra Macedonian Conservative Party
Coalition on Alliance for Albanians and Alternativa
DUI
VMRO-DPMNE Coalition (Renewal)
SDSM and Besa Coalition (We can)
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSIf the parliamentary elections were held today, which party would you vote for?
Would you say you are definitely voting for this party or you might change your mind?
Would definitely vote
Might change mind
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
37
% AMONG VOTERS OF THESE PARTIES
79 21
83 17
% AMONG VOTERS OF THESE PARTIES
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSIf the parliamentary elections were held today, which party would you vote for?
Would you say you are definitely voting for this party or you might change your mind?
38
17%
5%
14%
1%
1%
2%
1%
9%
29%
20%
9%
10%
19%
3%
23%
26%
10%
8%
10%
16%
2%
2%
29.7%
29.3%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Do not know
Refuse to answer
Will not vote
Levica
DPA
Integra Macedonian Conservative Party
Alliance for Albanians and Alternativa
DUI
SDSM and Besa Coalition (We can)
VMRO DPMNE Coalition Renewal
Macedonian
Albanian
Other
NOTE: All other responses
have less than 1%
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSIf the parliamentary elections were held today, which party would you vote for?
Base: 1,213 (all respondents)
Margin of Error: + 2.8 points at
95% confidence interval
39
Undecided (Don't Know)
Refuse to Answer
Will not vote
Coalition of Alliance for Albanians andAlternativa
DUI
VMRO-DPMNE
SDSM and BESA Coalition 24.8%
21.2%
16.5%
22.0% 27,6%
18.4% 24.0%
AMONG ALL
9.5%
9.0%
4.4% 10.0%7.2%
6.7% 12.3%
6.2% 11.8%
2.9% 8.5%Coalition of Alliance for
Albanians and Alternativa5.7%
13.7% 19/3%
Percentage from survey
Maximum with
Margin of Error
(+2.8)
Minimum with
margin of error
(-2.8)
5.6%
40
5.8
7.2
19.6
24.6
5.7
7.2
21.2
24.8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Coalition of Alliance for Albanians andAlternativa
DUI
VMRO-DPMNE Coalition
SDSM and Besa Coalition
June
Feb / March
NOTE: In the Feb/ March
survey, 22,9% of the
citizens stated they would
vote for SDSM and 1,7% for
Movement BESA
TREND: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSIf the parliamentary elections were held today, which party would you vote for?
% AMONG ALL RESPONDENTS
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSIF NOT VOTING IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: What are the reasons you might not vote in the parliamentary election?
41
4%
37%
1%
1%
8%
12%
15%
22%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Refuses to answer
Not interested
Something else
Physical issues
Have other commitments
Dissatisfaction, dissapointment by all parties
Boycotting
Fears about COVID-19
16.5
83.5
Will not vote Base: 200 respondents
AMONG THE 16% OF PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT VOTING IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSIF NOT VOTING IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: What is something that could be said or done that would make you
change your mind about voting in the elections?
42
4%
1%
58%
6%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
5%
5%
9%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Do not know
Refuse to answer
Nothing
Other
Rule of law, justice for all
The political program of the party
Third option, new politicians
Personal benefit
To work for the good of the people
Fulfilled promises
Better economy and living standard
Employing a member of my family
Having the COVID 19 pandemic under control
16.5
83.5
Will not vote Base: 200 respondents
AMONG THE 16% OF PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT VOTING IN THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSThe Ministry of Health, with Venko Filipche, and the Commission for Infectious Diseases will require all voters, organizers and
observers to wear protective equipment, use hand sanitizer and keep a two-meter distance from each other. Given this, how confident
are you that the July parliamentary election will be conducted with acceptable safety measures? Are you…?
43
5%
1%
24%
22%
32%
16%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Do not know
Refuses to answer
Not confident at all
A little confident
Somewhat confident
Very confident
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
48% Confident elections will be
conducted with acceptable health safety
46% Not Confident elections will be
conducted with acceptable health safety
NOTE: 86% of SDSM Coalition and
30% of VMRO-DPMNE voters are
confident the elections will be with
acceptable health
VII. GOOD NEIGHBORLY RELATIONS
THE PRESPA AGREEMENTWhich of the following is closest to your opinion today about the Prespa Agreement?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
45
29%
25%
33%
6% 6%
41%
32%
21%
4% 3%3%
7%
61%
14% 15%
19%
28%
43%
4%6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
I oppose the PrespaAgreement
I do not like theAgreement, but I believe
it was necessary
I support the PrespaAgreement
Refuse to answer Do not know
Total
Macedonian
Albanian
Other
46
31%
26%
32%
5%6%
29%
25%
33%
6% 6%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
I oppose the PrespaAgreement
I do not like the Agreement,but I believe it was
necessary
I support the PrespaAgreement
Refuse to answer Do not know
Feb / March
June
NOTE: There are no
statistically significant
changes from the Feb/
March survey
TREND: THE PRESPA AGREEMENTWhich of the following is closest to your opinion today about the Prespa Agreement?
RELATIONS BETWEEN NORTH MACEDONIA AND BULGARIABulgaria and our country signed a friendship agreement in 2017. And Bulgaria did not veto the start of our accession talks with the
EU. However, Bulgaria has demanded we make changes regarding our country’s language and history before entering the EU.
Which of the following positions is closer to your view?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
47
11%
3%
30%
28%
29%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Do not know
Refuse to answer
We should be be very offended and should not negotiateat all, even if it keeps us out of the EU
We should be very worried, we should try to reach anagreement
Bulgaria is trying to gain favor with their own people, weshould not worry about the demands
RELATIONS BETWEEN NORTH MACEDONIA AND BULGARIABulgaria and our country signed a friendship agreement in 2017. And, Bulgaria did not veto the start of our accession talks with the
EU. However, Bulgaria has demanded we make changes regarding our country’s language and history before entering the EU.
Which of the following positions is closer to your view?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
48
29%28%
30%
27%
25%
39%
35%37%
6%
28%
24%
31%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Bulgaria is trying to gain favor with theirown people, but they cannot veto EU
accession. So, our country should notworry much about these demands
We should be very worried about theBulgarian demands because this might
create problems for joining the EU, so weshould try to reach an agreement
We should be very offended about theBulgarian demands and should not
negotiate at all, even if it keeps us out ofthe EU
Total
Macedonian
Albanian
Other
VIII. EU AND NATO ACCESSION
NATO ACCESSION Have you personally seen, read, or heard anything about our country joining NATO? IF YES: Did this make you feel….
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
50
58% More Hopeful
12% Less Hopeful
4
4
8
15
7
5
34
24
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Do not know
Refuse to answer
No, unaware
No effect
Much less hopeful
Somewhat less hopeful
Somewhat more hopeful
Much more hopeful for the future of our country
%
NATO ACCESSION Have you personally seen, read, or heard anything about our country joining NATO? IF YES: Did this make you feel….
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
51
24%
34%
5%7%
15%
8%
20%
32%
6%
8%
19%
10%
29%
45%
2% 2%4%
6%
34%
25%
4%
9%
15%
6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Much more hopefulfor the future of our
country
Somewhat morehopeful
Somewhat lesshopeful
Much less hopeful No effect No, unaware
Total
Macedonian
Albanian
Other
NATO ACCESSION Our country joined NATO in March 2020. Do you…
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.81
52
74% Total Support to join NATO
48%
26%
7%10%
42%
29%
10%
14%
67%
17%
45%
26%
9%11%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Strongly support joining NATO Somewhat support joining NATO Somewhat oppose joining NATO Strongly oppose joining NATO
Total
Macedonian
Albanian
Other
TREND: NATO ACCESSIONOur country will likely be joining NATO soon/Our country joined NATO in March 2020. Do you…
53
5%
9%
7%
26%
53%
8%
10%
7%
26%
48%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Refuse / DK
Strongly oppose joining the NATO
Somewhat oppose joining the NATO
Somewhat support joining the NATO
Strongly support joining the NATO
June
Feb / March
- 5%
EU ACCESSION Have you personally seen, read, or heard anything about the European Union approving the start of final negotiations for our country
to join the EU? IF YES: Did this make you feel….?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
54
58% More Hopeful
11% Less Hopeful
4%
3%
11%
12%
6%
5%
35%
23%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Do not know
Refuse to answer
No effect
No, unaware
Much less hopeful
Somewhat less hopeful
Somewhat more hopeful
Much more hopeful for the future of our country
EU ACCESSION Have you personally seen, read, or heard anything about the European Union approving the start of final negotiations for our country
to join the EU? IF YES: Did this make you feel….?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
55
23%
35%
5%6%
11% 12%
19%
33%
6%8%
15% 14%
28%
43%
3% 2% 3%
9%
35%
32%
4%
8%
10%9%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Much more hopeful forthe future of our
country
Somewhat morehopeful
Somewhat lesshopeful
Much less hopeful No effect No, unaware
Total
Macedonian
Albanian
Other
TREND: EU ACCESSION Our country is moving toward negotiations to join the EU. Do you…
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
56
5%
8%
6%
25%
57%
6%
9%
6%
24%
55%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Refuse / DK
Strongly oppose joining the EU
Somewhat oppose joining the EU
Somewhat support joining the EU
Strongly support joining the EU
June
Feb / March
NOTE: There are no
statistically significant
changes from the Feb/
March survey
EU ACCESSION Our country is moving toward negotiations to join the EU. Do you…
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
57
79% Total Support joining EU
55%
24%
6%
9%
49%
28%
7%
13%
70%
14%
0 0
55%
25%
10%7%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Strongly support joining theEU
Somewhat support joining theEU
Somewhat oppose joining theEU
Strongly oppose joining theEU
Total
Macedonian
Albanian
Other
EU ACCESSION Whether or not you support joining the EU, which benefits do you think will SIGNIFICANTLY help our country?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
58
3%
2%
12%
1%
19%
25%
26%
32%
49%
49%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Do not know
Refuse to answer
No benefits
Other
Reduce the rate of emigration
Fight against corruption
Rule of law, judiciary reforms
Freedom of movement
Foreign investments, new employments
Better standard of living, increased wages
MULTIPLE RESPONSE
EXTERNAL SUPPORTAccording to you, which one of these countries or organizations helps our country’s national interests the most?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
59
7
2
19
2
7
13
5
13
31
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Do not know
Refuses to answer
None of the above
China
Russia
Turkey
NATO
United States of America
European Union
%
EXTERNAL SUPPORT According to you, which one of these countries or organizations helps our country’s national interests the most?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
60
20
3
12
7
11
2
39
10
0
17
0
14
11
41
22
2
12
10
14
4
26
0 10 20 30 40 50
None of the above
China
Turkey
Russia
United States of America
NATO
European Union
Macedonian
Albanian
Other
%
IX. KEY REFORMS
SATISFACTION RELATED TO KEY REFORMS
Rule of Law Mechanisms to
Reduce
Corruption
Freedom of Expression
62
Somewhat satisfied
Very satisfied
Very dissatisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
30%
satisfied25%
satisfied58%
satisfied
66%
dissatisfied71%
dissatisfied38%
dissatisfied
5%
43%25%
23%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Satisfied Dissatisfied
3%
45%
22%
26%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
14% 17%
44%
21%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
TREND: SATISFACTION RELATED TO KEY REFORMS
63
Dissatisfaction related to key reforms
Feb/ March June Change
Rule of Law 65% 66% +1%
Mechanisms to reduce corruption 70% 71% +1%
Freedom of expression 30% 38% +8%
PERCEIVED TRENDS IN KEY REFORMSCompared to three years ago, do you think the…
Rule of Law Mechanisms
to Reduce
Corruption
Freedom of Expression
(speech and the media)
64
20%
45%
32%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Gottenbetter
Notchanged
Gottenworse
17%
44%
34%
Gottenbetter
Notchanged
Gottenworse
35%
41%
19%
Gottenbetter
Notchanged
Gottenworse
TREND: SATISFACTION RELATED TO KEY REFORMS
65
Gotten better Not changed Gotten worse
Feb/March June Feb/ March June Feb/ March June
Rule of Law 20% 20% 48% 45% 27% 32%
Mechanisms to reduce corruption
18% 17% 48% 44% 30% 34%
Freedom of expression 39% 35% 42% 41% 12% 19%
X. MEDIA USAGE AND DISINFORMATION
MEDIA USAGEWhat is your primary source of political news?
Which media do you trust the most as a source for political news?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
67
Primary source of political news (%) Most trusted source (%)
1
1
0
1
4
8
25
60
0 20 40 60 80
Do not know
Refuse to answer
Radio
Newspaper andmagazines
Friends and family
Web portals
Social media
Television
11
1
2
2
2
5
6
8
10
10
12
16
0 5 10 15 20
None
TV 21
MTV
www.a1on.mk
www.facebook.com
Different TV channels
TV Alfa
TV 24
TV Kanal 5
TV Telma
TV Alsat
TV Sitel
NOTE: Younger and more
educated citizens in higher %
use social media as primary
source for political news
CONCERN ABOUT DISINFORMATIONSome have suggested that disinformation related to COVID-19 and the election has been spreading in our country. Disinformation is
false information that is shared with an intent to cause harm. How concerned are you that disinformation might influence enough
voters to impact the results of the parliamentary elections? Are you…
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
68
8%
18%
18%
38%
18%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Do not know
Not concerned at all
A little concerned
Somewhat concerned
Very concerned
NOTE: There are no
statistically significant
changes from the Feb/
March survey
INCIDENTS AND LOCATION OF DISINFORMATIONPlease tell me if you have been exposed to disinformation in these sources of information?
90%
VOTERS EXPOSED TO
DISINFORMATION
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
69
%
3
2
5
1
4
8
10
15
19
28
53
68
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Do not know
Refuse to answer
None
E-mails
Billbords
Radio
Printed materials, flyers
Newspapers
People
Web sites
Social media
Television
NOTE: Political parties,
supporters of political
parties and media are
most likely to be creating
or spreading election
disinformation
XI. MIGRATION
71
MIGRATIONIs there any member of your household who has emigrated to live and/or work abroad?
Is there any member of your household who will likely emigrate to live and/or work abroad in the next year?
Base: 1213 (all respondents)Margin of Error + 2.8
39
53
8
30
62
8
56
36
9
51
42
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Someone in household has migrated in the past None No household emigration in the past, butsomeone will likely immigrate in next year
Total
Macedonian
Albanian
Other