•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

Contribution to real GDP growthYear-over-year change

Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers’ IndicesLevel

Electricity consumptionYear-to-date, year-over-year change

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics of China; (Top right) Caixin/Markit, J.P. Morgan Economic Research; (Bottom right) CEIC, China Electricity Council. PMIs are relative to 50, which indicates deceleration (below 50) or acceleration (above 50) of the sector.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Net exports

Gross capital formation (investment)

Consumption

GDP

Secondary

Tertiary

7/2020: -2.5%

7/2020: -2.1%

Manufacturing

Services

7/2020: 54.1

YTD 2020:

-1.6%

8/2020: 53.1

China: Economic snapshot | 7GTM - Asia

4

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

55

Source: Australian Industry Group, Institute for Supply Management, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, Markit, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.PMIs are relative to 50, which indicates deceleration (below 50) or acceleration (above 50) of the sector. Heatmap colors are based on PMI relative to the 50 level, with green (red) corresponding to acceleration (deceleration). *Developed market includes Australia, Canada, Denmark, euro area, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and the U.S. **Emerging market includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hong Kong SAR, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Global manufacturing and services PMIIndex

Global manufacturing PMI breakdown

Manufacturing

Services

Lowest point 4/20: 23.7

Lowest point 4/20: 39.6

Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) | 13GTM - Asia

5

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19

Sep

'19

Oct

'19

No

v '19

Dec '19

Jan

'20

Feb

'20

Mar

'20

Ap

r '2

0

May '20

Ju

n '20

Ju

l '2

0

Au

g '20

Global 50.6 51.8

DM* 49.8 51.2

EM** 51.4 52.5

U.S. (Markit) 50.9 53.1

U.S. (ISM) 54.2 56.0

Euro area 51.8 51.7

Germany 51.0 52.2

France 52.4 49.8

Italy 51.9 53.1

Spain 53.5 49.9

UK 53.3 55.2

Australia 54.0 53.6

Japan 45.2 47.2

China (Markit) 52.8 53.1

China (NBS) 51.1 51.0

Korea 46.9 48.5

Taiwan 50.6 52.2

Indonesia 46.9 50.8

India 46.0 52.0

Russia 48.4 51.1

Brazil 58.2 64.7

Mexico 40.4 41.3

# markets above 50 6 6 5 7 7 7 3 0 1 5 10 11

66

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) FactSet; (Right) BIS. G4 are the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve. *Key deposit rates that central banks charge commercial banks on their excess reserves. **The BoJ has adopted a three-tier system in which a negative interest rate of -0.1% will be applied to the policy rate balance of the aggregate amount of all financial institutions that hold current accounts at the BoJ. ***Count covers the 38 central banks included in the Bank for International Settlements’ central bank policy monitor except Argentina, Croatia and Hong Kong. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Policy rateDeposit

rate*

Eurozone 0.0% -0.5%

Japan** -0.1 to 0.0% -0.1%

UK 0.1% 0.1%

U.S. 0.0 to 0.25% 0.1%

Changes in central bank policy ratesNumber of hikes or cuts***

G4 central bank key policy ratesPer annum

Developed markets

Emerging marketsRate hikes

Rate cutsDeveloped markets

Emerging markets

Central bank policy rates | 18GTM - Asia

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 YTD'20

77

Source: BEA, Conference Board U.S., FactSet, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Labor, Wards Intelligence, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Indicators are: Consumer Confidence – Monthly survey index of how consumers perceive their own financial status and the general economy; Wage Growth – Average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers; Nonfarm Payrolls – Monthly change in U.S. nonfarm employment (three-month moving average); Housing Starts – Number of private housing units that construction has started within a specified timeframe; Light Vehicle Sales – Cars and passenger trucks sold in a given month; Business Confidence –Monthly survey of Chief Executive Officers about their outlook for the economy; Capex – Monthly new orders of non-defense capital goods (excluding aircraft); Durable Orders –Monthly new orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector, seasonally adjusted; Industrial Production – Monthly output of the industrial sector; Leading Economic Index – An index aggregating values of 10 key variables intended to forecast future U.S. economic activity; Credit Conditions – Leading Credit Index that aggregates performance of six financial market instruments to track credit conditions in the U.S. economy.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

U.S. business cycle indicatorsCurrent percentile rank relative to range of data since Jan. 1990

Consumers Businesses

3

months

ago

Latest

Ele

vate

dR

etre

nched

United States: Business cycle thermometer | 25GTM - Asia

0

25

50

75

100

ConsumerConfidence

WageGrowth

NonfarmPayrolls

HousingStarts

Light VehicleSales

BusinessConfidence

Capex DurableOrders

IndustrialProduction

LeadingEconomic

Index

CreditConditions

Example

88

0.06%0.03% 0.02%

0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

2.50%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet, U.S. Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Market expectations are the federal funds rates priced into the Fed Fund futures market as of 30/06/20. Federal Reserve projections shown are the median estimates of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Federal funds rate expectationsMarket expectations for the fed funds rate

FOMC June 2020 forecast

Percent

2020 2021 2022Long

run

Change in real GDP, 4Q to 4Q -6.5 5.0 3.5 1.8

Unemployment rate, 4Q 9.3 6.5 5.5 4.1

PCE inflation, 4Q to 4Q 0.8 1.6 1.7 2.0

Federal funds rate

FOMC long-run projection

FOMC year-end estimates

Market expectations on 31/08/20

Long

run

United States: Monetary policy | 29GTM - Asia

9

Source: FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Returns are total returns based on MSCI indices, except the U.S., which is the S&P 500, and China A, which is the CSI 300 index in U.S. dollar terms. China return is based on the MSCI China index. 10-yr total (gross) return data is used to calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflect the period 31/08/10 – 31/08/20. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Global and Asia equity market returns | 31GTM - Asia

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q '20 YTD '20 Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.

ASEAN U.S. India U.S . China A Ja pa n Ta iwa n China U.S . Ta iwa n Ta iwa n China A U.S . China A

3 2 .4 % 2 .1% 2 6 .0 % 3 2 .4 % 5 2 .1% 9 .9 % 19 .6 % 5 4 .3 % - 4 .4 % 3 7 .7 % 2 1.5 % 2 1.8 % 15 .2 % 2 4 .5 %

Kore a ASEAN China Ja pa n India China A U.S . Kore a India China A India China Ta iwa n India

2 7 .2 % - 6 .1% 2 3 .1% 2 7 .3 % 2 3 .9 % 2 .4 % 12 .0 % 4 7 .8 % - 7 .3 % 3 7 .2 % 2 0 .6 % 19 .9 % 11.2 % 2 3 .5 %

Ta iwa n Europe ASEAN Europe U.S . U.S . Kore a India Ta iwa n U.S . U.S . Ta iwa n China China

2 2 .7 % - 10 .5 % 2 2 .8 % 2 6 .0 % 13 .7 % 1.4 % 9 .2 % 3 8 .8 % - 8 .2 % 3 1.5 % 2 0 .5 % 12 .9 % 8 .0 % 2 0 .6 %

India Kore aAPAC

e x- JPTa iwa n Ta iwa n Europe

APAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JPASEAN Europe Kore a U.S . China A Kore a

2 0 .9 % - 11.8 % 2 2 .6 % 9 .8 % 10 .1% - 2 .3 % 7 .1% 3 7 .3 % - 8 .4 % 2 4 .6 % 19 .6 % 9 .7 % 7 .3 % 2 0 .3 %

APAC

e x- JPJa pa n Kore a Kore a China India ASEAN China A Ja pa n China

APAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JPJa pa n Ta iwa n

18 .4 % - 14 .2 % 2 1.5 % 4 .2 % 8 .3 % - 6 .1% 6 .2 % 3 2 .6 % - 12 .6 % 2 3 .7 % 18 .5 % 5 .4 % 6 .9 % 17 .7 %

Ja pa nAPAC

e x- JPEurope China ASEAN Kore a Ja pa n ASEAN

APAC

e x- JPJa pa n ASEAN Kore a

APAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JP

15 .6 % - 15 .4 % 19 .9 % 4 .0 % 6 .4 % - 6 .3 % 2 .7 % 3 0 .1% - 13 .7 % 2 0 .1% 17 .0 % 1.6 % 6 .8 % 17 .0 %

U.S . China Ta iwa nAPAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JPChina China Ta iwa n Europe

APAC

e x- JPEurope Ja pa n Europe Europe

15 .1% - 18 .2 % 17 .7 % 3 .7 % 3 .1% - 7 .6 % 1.1% 2 8 .5 % - 14 .3 % 19 .5 % 15 .6 % - 1.4 % 6 .3 % 16 .4 %

China Ta iwa n U.S . China A Ja pa nAPAC

e x- JPEurope Europe China Kore a China India Kore a ASEAN

4 .8 % - 2 0 .2 % 16 .0 % - 2 .6 % - 3 .7 % - 9 .1% 0 .2 % 2 6 .2 % - 18 .7 % 13 .1% 15 .4 % - 5 .0 % 5 .7 % 16 .2 %

Europe China A China A India Europe Ta iwa n India Ja pa n Kore a ASEAN China A Europe India Ja pa n

4 .5 % - 2 0 .5 % 10 .9 % - 3 .8 % - 5 .7 % - 11.0 % - 1.4 % 2 4 .4 % - 2 0 .5 % 8 .8 % 14 .5 % - 5 .3 % 3 .2 % 13 .5 %

China A India Ja pa n ASEAN Kore a ASEAN China A U.S . China A India Ja pa n ASEAN ASEAN U.S.

- 8 .4 % - 3 7 .2 % 8 .4 % - 4 .5 % - 10 .7 % - 18 .4 % - 15 .2 % 2 1.8 % - 2 7 .6 % 7 .6 % 11.6 % - 17 .6 % 2 .2 % 13 .4 %

10-yrs ('10 - '20)

10

Earnings growthEarnings per share, year-over-year change, consensus estimates

Source: IBES, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Asia Pacific ex-Japan, emerging markets (EM), Europe and U.S. equity indices used are the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan, MSCI Emerging Markets, MSCI Europe and S&P 500, respectively. Consensus estimates used are calendar year estimates from IBES. Revisions are based on the current unreported year. Net earnings revisions is (number of companies with upward earnings revisions – number of companies with downward earnings revisions) / number of total companies. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Earnings revisions ratiosNet earnings revisions to consensus estimates, 13-week moving average

2018 20202019 2021

Global equities: Earnings expectations | 33GTM - Asia

24%

8%

5% 6%

1%

-2% -1%

-2%

-20%

-9%

-5%

-32%

27%

32%

24%

38%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

U.S. EM Asia Pacific ex-Japan

Europe -80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

U.S.

Europe

Japan

Asia Pacific

ex-Japan

11

S&P 500 earnings growth estimatesYear-over-year change

Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) Compustat. *Energy sector earnings are expected to increase by 2,027% in 2021. **The forward price-to-earnings ratio in the energy sector at 31 August 2020 was -86x. The energy sector reached a historic maximum of 1,720x and a historic minimum of -1,138x. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

S&P 500 price-to-earningsForward price-to-earnings ratio

15-year range

Current

15-year average2021

2020

United States: Sector earnings and valuations | 41GTM - Asia

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

0x

10x

20x

30x

40x

50x

60x

12

Source: Barclays, Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Based on Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate High Yield Index (U.S. HY), Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate Investment Grade Index (U.S. IG), J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index – EM Global (GBI-EM) (Local EMD), J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMBIG) (USD EMD), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI) (USD Asian Bond), Bloomberg Barclays Pan European High Yield (Europe HY), J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index – Global Traded (DM Government Bond), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit High Yield Index (Asia HY), Bloomberg Barclays Global U.S. Treasury –Bills (3-5 years) (U.S. Treasury) and Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury – Bills (1-3 months) (Cash). 5-year data is used to calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.). Returns are in U.S. dollars and reflect the period from 31/08/15 – 31/08/20. *Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of the principal) of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates and is expressed as number of years. Rising interest rates mean falling bond prices, while declining interest rates mean rising bond prices. **Correlation to the MSCI AC World Index is a measure over 10 years of data. Positive yield does not imply positive return. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Global bond opportunities Fixed income sector returns

Global fixed income: Yields and returns | 43GTM - Asia

5-yrs

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q '20 YTD '20 Ann. Ret.

USD

Asia nAsia HY U.S . HY

Europe

HYCa sh U.S . IG

Europe

HY

U.S .

Tre a sU.S . IG

8 .3 % 5 .2 % 17 .1% 2 1.0 % 1.8 % 14 .5 % 13 .5 % 8 .8 % 5 .8 %

U.S . IGUSD

Asia n

Loc a l

EMD

Loc a l

EMD

U.S .

Tre a s

USD

EMDAsia HY

DM

Gov't

USD

EMD

7 .5 % 2 .8 % 11.4 % 15 .4 % 0 .9 % 14 .4 % 11.8 % 7 .4 % 5 .1%

Asia HYUSD

EMDAsia HY

USD

EMD

DM

Gov'tU.S . HY

USD

EMDU.S. IG Asia HY

6 .1% 1.2 % 11.2 % 9 .3 % - 0 .7 % 14 .3 % 11.2 % 6 .9 % 5 .1%

USD

EMD

U.S.

Tre a s

USD

EMDU.S. HY

USD

Asia n

Loc a l

EMDU.S . HY

USD

Asia n

USD

Asia n

5 .5 % 0 .8 % 10 .2 % 7 .5 % - 0 .8 % 13 .1% 10 .2 % 4 .9 % 5 .0 %

U.S .

Tre a sCa sh U.S . IG Asia HY U.S . HY Asia HY U.S . IG

Europe

HYU.S . HY

5 .1% 0 .0 % 6 .1% 6 .9 % - 2 .1% 12 .8 % 9 .0 % 3 .7 % 4 .8 %

U.S . HY U.S . IGUSD

Asia n

DM

Gov'tU.S . IG

USD

Asia n

Loc a l

EMDAsia HY

U.S .

Tre a s

2 .5 % - 0 .7 % 5 .8 % 6 .8 % - 2 .5 % 11.3 % 7 .0 % 3 .0 % 4 .1%

DM

Gov't

DM

Gov't

Europe

HYU.S . IG Asia HY

Europe

HY

USD

Asia n

USD

EMD

DM

Gov't

0 .7 % - 2 .6 % 3 .4 % 6 .4 % - 3 .2 % 10 .3 % 6 .1% 2 .1% 3 .8 %

Ca sh U.S . HYDM

Gov't

USD

Asia n

USD

EMD

U.S.

Tre a s

DM

Gov'tU.S . HY

Europe

HY

0 .0 % - 4 .5 % 1.6 % 5 .8 % - 4 .6 % 6 .9 % 1.5 % 1.7 % 2 .9 %

Europe

HY

Europe

HY

U.S .

Tre a s

U.S .

Tre a s

Loc a l

EMD

DM

Gov't

U.S .

Tre a sCa sh

Loc a l

EMD

- 6 .0 % - 7 .6 % 1.0 % 2 .3 % - 6 .7 % 6 .0 % 0 .5 % 0 .5 % 1.2 %

Loc a l

EMD

Loc a l

EMDCa sh Ca sh

Europe

HYCa sh Ca sh

Loc a l

EMDCa sh

- 6 .1% - 18 .0 % 0 .3 % 0 .8 % - 8 .2 % 2 .2 % 0 .0 % - 7 .5 % 1.1%

Sector YTMDuration*

(years)

Correl. to

MSCI AC

World**

Correl. to

10-year

UST

Asia HY 7.1% 4.4 0.72 -0.11

U.S. HY 5.9% 3.6 0.83 -0.23

USD EMD 4.7% 8.1 0.63 0.10

Local EMD 4.6% 5.0 0.67 -0.09

Europe HY 4.3% 3.5 0.81 -0.33

USD Asian 3.8% 5.7 0.57 0.23

U.S. IG 2.0% 8.7 0.37 0.46

DM Gov't 0.6% 8.8 0.13 0.58

U.S. Treasury 0.5% 7.2 -0.43 0.98

Cash 0.1% 0.2 -0.13 0.14

13

Source: iBoxx, ICE BofA Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan Economics Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Based on J.P. Morgan Domestic High Yield Index (U.S. high yield), J.P. Morgan U.S. Liquid Index (JULI) (U.S. investment grade), J.P. Morgan Euro High Yield Index (Euro high yield), iBoxx EUR corporates (Euro investment grade), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI) (USD Asia credit), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit China Index (USD China offshore credit), J.P. Morgan Asia Credit High Yield Index (USD Asia high yield), J.P. Morgan EMBI Global (EMD USD), J.P. Morgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index – CEMBI (USD EMD corporates), J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global (Local EMD). Positive yield does not imply positive return. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Spread to worst across fixed income sub-sectorsBasis points, last 10 years

10-yr. average

Latest

10-yr. range

YTD minimum

YTD maximum

Global fixed income: Valuations | 45GTM - Asia

541

166

509

111

237

320

474

356 331

472

573

168

524

98

248252

662

383

322

419409

125

349

67

179 193

478

275

221

350

1139

387

1045

211

432 437

1130

662

606561

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

U.S. highyield

U.S.investment

grade

Euro highyield

Euroinvestment

grade

USDAsiacredit

USD Chinaoffshore credit

USD Asiahigh yield

USD EMD USD EMDcorporates

Local EMD

14

12.0%9.7%

7.3% 7.0% 7.0% 6.5%5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 1.7% 1.3%

16.7%

0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%

4.0% 3.2%

0.4%

13.2%

2.1% 1.2%

21.1%

4.2%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

12.5%

0.0%

13.2%

0.0%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20

Source: J.P. Morgan Economics Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Default rate is defined as the percentage of the total market trading at or below 50% of par value and includes any Chapter 11 filing, pre-packaged filing or missed interest payments. Spreads indicated are benchmark yield-to-worst less comparable maturity Treasury yields. **Data reflects 20-year average and is as of 31/12/19. U.S. corporate high yield is represented by the J.P. Morgan Domestic High Yield Index.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Last 12 months sector default ratesSectors with highest index weights

High yield spread and default rate*

Default rate Spread to worst (basis points)

10-yr average Latest

HY spread to worst 541bps 573bps

HY energy spread to worst 663bps 934bps

HY default rate 2.0% 5.8%

HY ex-energy default rate 3.1%** 4.0%

Recessions

Default rate

Index weight

U.S. high yield bonds | 53GTM - Asia

15

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Dow Jones, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The “Diversified” portfolio assumes the following weights: 20% in the MSCI World Index (DM Equities), 20% in the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex-Japan (APAC ex-JP), 5% in the average of the MSCI EM Latin America and MSCI EM EMEA Indices (EM ex-Asia), 10% in the J.P. Morgan EMBIG Index (EMD), 10% in the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate (Global Bonds), 10% in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Corporate High Yield Index (Global Corporate High Yield), 15% in J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (Asian Bonds), 5% in Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate Investment Grade Index (U.S. IG) and 5% in Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury –Bills (1-3 months) (Cash). Diversified portfolio assumes annual rebalancing. All data represent total return in U.S. dollar terms for the stated period. 10-year total return data is used to calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and 10-year price return data is used to calculate annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflects the period 31/08/10 – 31/08/20. Please see disclosure page at end for index definitions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Asset class returns | 56GTM - Asia

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q '20 YTD '20 Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.

APAC

e x- JPEMD

APAC

e x- JP

DM

Equitie s

Asia n

Bonds

Asia n

Bonds

EM e x-

Asia

APAC

e x- JPCa sh

DM

Equitie s

DM

Equitie sU.S . IG

DM

Equitie s

EM e x-

Asia

18 .4 % 8 .5 % 2 2 .6 % 2 7 .4 % 8 .3 % 2 .8 % 2 7 .1% 3 7 .3 % 1.8 % 2 8 .4 % 19 .5 % 6 .9 % 11.4 % 2 2 .8 %

EM e x-

AsiaU.S . IG

Globa l

Corp HY

Globa l

Corp HYU.S . IG EMD

Globa l

Corp HY

DM

Equitie s

Asia n

Bonds

APAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JP

Globa l

Bonds

APAC

e x- JP

APAC

e x- JP

16 .6 % 8 .1% 18 .9 % 8 .4 % 7 .5 % 1.2 % 14 .0 % 2 3 .1% - 0 .8 % 19 .5 % 18 .5 % 6 .1% 6 .8 % 17 .0 %

Globa l

Corp HY

Globa l

BondsEMD Dive rsifie d EMD Ca sh EMD

EM e x-

Asia

Globa l

Bonds

EM e x-

Asia

EM e x-

Asia

DM

Equitie sDive rsifie d

DM

Equitie s

13 .8 % 5 .6 % 18 .5 % 5 .4 % 5 .5 % 0 .0 % 10 .2 % 2 0 .3 % - 1.2 % 18 .9 % 17 .6 % 5 .7 % 6 .6 % 13 .8 %

DM

Equitie s

Asia n

Bonds

EM e x-

Asia

APAC

e x- JP

DM

Equitie s

DM

Equitie sDive rsifie d Dive rsifie d U.S . IG Dive rsifie d Dive rsifie d

APAC

e x- JP

Globa l

Corp HYDive rsifie d

12 .3 % 4 .1% 17 .0 % 3 .7 % 5 .5 % - 0 .3 % 8 .2 % 17 .0 % - 2 .5 % 16 .5 % 12 .4 % 5 .4 % 6 .6 % 9 .0 %

Dive rsifie dGloba l

Corp HY

DM

Equitie sCa sh

APAC

e x- JPU.S . IG

DM

Equitie s

Globa l

Corp HY

Globa l

Corp HYU.S . IG

Globa l

Corp HY

Asia n

BondsEMD

Globa l

Corp HY

12 .2 % 2 .6 % 16 .5 % 0 .0 % 3 .1% - 0 .7 % 8 .2 % 10 .3 % - 3 .5 % 14 .5 % 11.4 % 4 .9 % 5 .6 % 7 .9 %

EMD Ca sh Dive rsifie dAsia n

BondsDive rsifie d

Globa l

Bonds

APAC

e x- JPEMD EMD EMD EMD Dive rsifie d

Asia n

BondsEMD

12 .0 % 0 .1% 15 .5 % - 1.4 % 3 .0 % - 3 .2 % 7 .1% 9 .3 % - 4 .6 % 14 .4 % 11.2 % 3 .2 % 5 .4 % 7 .8 %

Asia n

BondsDive rsifie d

Asia n

BondsU.S . IG

Globa l

BondsDive rsifie d U.S . IG

Globa l

BondsDive rsifie d

Globa l

Corp HYU.S . IG

Globa l

Corp HYU.S . IG U.S . IG

10 .6 % - 2 .4 % 14 .3 % - 1.5 % 0 .6 % - 3 .3 % 6 .1% 7 .4 % - 5 .8 % 13 .4 % 9 .0 % 2 .3 % 5 .2 % 5 .1%

U.S . IGDM

Equitie sU.S . IG

Globa l

Bonds

Globa l

Corp HY

Globa l

Corp HY

Asia n

BondsU.S . IG

EM e x-

Asia

Asia n

Bonds

Asia n

BondsEMD

Globa l

Bonds

Globa l

Bonds

9 .0 % - 5 .0 % 9 .8 % - 2 .6 % 0 .2 % - 4 .9 % 5 .8 % 6 .4 % - 6 .8 % 11.3 % 6 .1% 2 .1% 2 .6 % 4 .6 %

Globa l

Bonds

APAC

e x- JP

Globa l

BondsEMD Ca sh

APAC

e x- JP

Globa l

Bonds

Asia n

Bonds

DM

Equitie s

Globa l

Bonds

Globa l

BondsCa sh Ca sh

Asia n

Bonds

5 .5 % - 15 .4 % 4 .3 % - 6 .6 % 0 .0 % - 9 .1% 2 .1% 5 .8 % - 8 .2 % 6 .8 % 3 .3 % 0 .5 % 0 .6 % 4 .6 %

Ca shEM e x-

AsiaCa sh

EM e x-

Asia

EM e x-

Asia

EM e x-

AsiaCa sh Ca sh

APAC

e x- JPCa sh Ca sh

EM e x-

Asia

EM e x-

AsiaCa sh

0 .1% - 2 1.2 % 0 .1% - 8 .5 % - 2 0 .2 % - 2 2 .7 % 0 .3 % 0 .8 % - 13 .7 % 2 .2 % 0 .0 % - 2 4 .3 % - 2 .5 % 0 .2 %

10-yrs ('10 - '20)

16

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet, U.S. Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.*The real broad trade-weighted exchange rate index is the weighted average of a market’s currency relative to a basket of trading partners’ currencies adjusted for the effects of inflation. The weights are determined by comparing the relative trade balances, in terms of one market’s currency, with other markets within the basket. **The U.S. dollar index shown here is a nominal trade-weighted index of major trading partners’ currencies. Major currencies are: British pound, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Swedish kroner and Swiss franc. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

U.S. dollar performanceIndex, Jan. 2006 =100

U.S. dollar index**

Real trade-weighted exchange rate index (REER)*

8/2020: 103.588/2020: 108.09

Recessions

U.S. dollar | 59GTM - Asia

17

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Commodity Index

Agriculture

Oil

Natural Gas

Industrial Metals

Gold

Precious Metals

Example

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) CME; (Right) Barclays, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, MSCI. Commodities are represented by the appropriate Bloomberg Commodity sub-index priced in U.S. dollars. Crude oil shown is West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. Other commodity prices are represented by futures contracts. Z-scores are calculated using daily prices over the past five years. Based on Bloomberg Commodity Index (Comdty.); MSCI ACWI Select – Energy Producers IMI, Metals & Mining Producers ex Gold & Silver IMI, Gold Miners IMI, Agriculture Producers IMI (Energy (E), M&M (E), Gold (E), Agri. (E)); Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Credit – Corporate Energy Index (Energy (FI)); Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit – Corporate High Yield Metals & Mining Index (U.S. M&M (FI)); Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Credit – Corporate Metals & Mining Index (Euro M&M (FI)); J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Corporate Credit – Corporate Metals & Mining Index (EM M&M (FI)).5-year total return data is used to calculate annualized returns (Ann. Ret.) and 5-year price return data is used to calculate annualized volatility (Ann. Vol.) and reflects the period 31/08/15 – 31/08/20. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Commodity pricesCommodity price z-scores for the past five years, USD per unit

Returns

High level

Current

Low level

$43

$38

$247

$2.5

$12 $76

$64

$255

$4.8$1.5

$144

$34

$144$84

$120

$2,069$1,050

$1,979

$93$59

$73

| 62GTM - Asia

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2Q'20 Ann. Ret. Ann. Vol.

Ene rgy

(FI)Gold (E) M&M (E)

Euro M&M

(FI)Gold (E) Gold (E) Gold (E) Gold (E)

- 7 .3 % 6 2 .9 % 3 7 .5 % - 0 .9 % 5 1.1% 5 4 .7 % 17 .5 % 3 7 .1%

EM M&M

(FI)M&M (E) Agri. (E)

US M&M

(FI)M&M (E) M&M (E)

EM M&M

(FI)M&M (E)

- 10 .9 % 5 7 .8 % 2 0 .3 % - 3 .5 % 17 .1% 2 8 .8 % 7 .1% 2 9 .0 %

Agri. (E)US M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

Ene rgy

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)Ene rgy (E)

US M&M

(FI)Ene rgy (E)

- 13 .7 % 4 5 .5 % 14 .7 % - 3 .7 % 16 .5 % 18 .6 % 5 .7 % 2 2 .7 %

Euro M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

US M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

US M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

Ene rgy

(FI)Agri. (E)

- 16 .1% 3 2 .4 % 9 .9 % - 4 .1% 14 .0 % 18 .3 % 3 .9 % 14 .3 %

Ene rgy (E) Ene rgy (E) Gold (E) Agri. (E) Agri. (E)Ene rgy

(FI)M&M (E) Comdty.

- 2 0 .6 % 2 9 .2 % 9 .4 % - 8 .9 % 13 .8 % 16 .4 % 2 .5 % 12 .8 %

US M&M

(FI)

Euro M&M

(FI)Ene rgy (E) Comdty.

Ene rgy

(FI)Agri. (E)

Euro M&M

(FI)

EM M&M

(FI)

- 2 3 .7 % 2 1.9 % 9 .1% - 11.2 % 13 .4 % 13 .9 % 2 .0 % 12 .8 %

Comdty. Agri. (E)Ene rgy

(FI)Ene rgy (E) Ene rgy (E)

US M&M

(FI)Agri. (E)

US M&M

(FI)

- 2 4 .7 % 15 .7 % 9 .0 % - 11.4 % 9 .5 % 8 .4 % 0 .9 % 11.0 %

Gold (E) Comdty.Euro M&M

(FI)Gold (E) Comdty.

Euro M&M

(FI)Ene rgy (E)

Ene rgy

(FI)

- 2 6 .3 % 11.8 % 3 .9 % - 13 .0 % 7 .7 % 8 .3 % - 5 .9 % 10 .6 %

M&M (E)Ene rgy

(FI)Comdty. M&M (E)

Euro M&M

(FI)Comdty. Comdty.

Euro M&M

(FI)

- 4 0 .1% 11.1% 1.7 % - 17 .8 % 5 .2 % 5 .1% - 7 .7 % 8 .6 %

2015 - 2020

18

Source: FactSet, U.S. Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Gold and real rates USD / Troy oz U.S. 10-year Treasury inflation-protected security

Gold price TIPS yield (inverted)

Gold | 63GTM - Asia

19

12/2008: $34.27

Global oil supply and demandMillion barrels per day

Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; (Top right) U.S. Energy Information Administration.*Oil costs are 2015 data, except for the U.S. which is as of June 2020.Guide to the Markets – Asia. Data reflect most recently available as of 31/08/20.

Cost of oil production by countryUSD / bbl, 2015*

Price of oilBrent crude, USD / bbl

08/2020: $45.3

07/2008: $145.6506/2014: $115.06

Forecast

Demand

Supply

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

$60

U.S

. -

Pe

rmia

n (

Oth

er)

U.S

. -

SC

OO

P/S

TA

CK

UK

U.S

. -

Ea

gle

Fo

rd

U.S

. -

Pe

rmia

n (

DE

)

Oth

er

U.S

. shale

Oth

er

U.S

. (n

on-s

hale

)

Bra

zil

U.S

. -

Pe

rmia

n (

Mid

land)

Canada

Norw

ay

An

gola

Colu

mb

ia

Nig

eria

Chin

a

Me

xic

o

Ka

zakhsta

n

Lib

ya

Ve

nezuela

Alg

eria

Russia

Iran

UA

E

Iraq

Sa

udi A

rabia

Ku

wait

Oil: Short-term market dynamics | 64GTM - Asia

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan '18 Jul '18 Jan '19 Jul '19 Jan '20 Jul '20 Jan '21 Jul '21

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