powerpoint presentation€¦ · 13/08/2015 1 . 2 history of woodland cover source: forestry...
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13/08/2015 1
2
History of Woodland Cover
Source: Forestry Commission
Planting post 1919
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5,000
10,000
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20,000
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45,000
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Are
a (h
a)
Area of new planting GB 1920-2016(FC & non-FC*, grant aided)
*includes non-FC restock to 1972
Broadleaves
Mixed or notspecified
Conifers
year to 30 Sep year to 31 Mar
Source: Forestry Commission
Some markets for wood
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Forests of the World
Source: Japanese Space Agency 2009
Canada
• WE ARE NOT ALONE IN HAVING PLANT HEALTH PROBLEMS: Canada; PLANT HEALTH CATASTROPHY Mountain Pine Beetle
• REDUCED ANNUAL ALLOWABLE CUT ON EAST COAST –loss of pulp markets
• INTERACTION WITH USA - impact of US tariffs • HIGH “inventory” in US South. But US; Housing Market recovery.
What will happen in the elections? • Uruguay, Brazil; Additional supply but low levels in global terms • Europe; Potential increased supply but at relatively high prices
China
• CHINA BOTH REDUCING PRODUCTION AND INCREASING DEMAND • China; Forest Protection Program – plan to ban commercial logging
in all “natural forests” by end of 2017 (up to 50 million mcubed/pa) • Urbanisation- • increasing Middle Class • WHERE DOES CHINA GET ITS LOGS • Russia; Timber available but constrained by infrastructure and
distance and tariffs (export tariff on logs) • New Zealand; Approaching maturity but some increase likely. • US NORTH WEST
• SUSTAINABLE TIMBER SUPPLIES CAN NOT JUST BE SWITCHED ON-
WORLD COMPETITION FOR LAND. NO NEW FRONTIERS
Will China’s timber needs continue?
Source: Stafford Timberland
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/hbop/pnbp/linechartimage
Source: ONS
Growth in UK conifer sector
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
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Vo
lum
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ho
usa
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3o
verb
ark
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Actual production of softwood timber volume and forecast of softwood timber availability
forecast all
actual all
forecast PS
actual PS
forecast FC/NRW
actual FC/NRW
Source: Forestry Commission
Overview of the 50-year forecast of softwood timber availability
Source: Forestry Commission
Deliveries of roundwood (UK-grown Hardwood)
Source: Forestry Facts and Figures
Overview of the 50-year forecast of hardwood timber availability
Source: Forestry Commission
Source: Forestry Commission
Threats and Opportunities
Threats
- Plant Health
- Climate change
- Skills shortages
- Lack of scale
- UK/Global economic downturn
Opportunities
- Global supply imbalance
- Access to processors
- Proximity to markets
- Weak sterling
- Energy Markets
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