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BACKGROUND PAPER 5
Powering Up: Costing Power Infrastructure
Spending Needs in Sub-Saharan Africa
COUNTRY ANNEX
Orvika Rosnes and Haakon Vennemo Econ Pöyry, in association with Norplan and Power
Planning Associates
MARCH 2009
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© 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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About AICD
This study is a product of the Africa Infrastructure Country
Diagnostic (AICD), a project designed to expand the
world’s knowledge of physical infrastructure in Africa.
AICD will provide a baseline against which future
improvements in infrastructure services can be measured,
making it possible to monitor the results achieved from
donor support. It should also provide a better empirical
foundation for prioritizing investments and designing
policy reforms in Africa’s infrastructure sectors.
AICD is based on an unprecedented effort to collect
detailed economic and technical data on African
infrastructure. The project has produced a series of reports
(such as this one) on public expenditure, spending needs,
and sector performance in each of the main infrastructure
sectors—energy, information and communication
technologies, irrigation, transport, and water and sanitation.
Africa’s Infrastructure—A Time for Transformation,
published by the World Bank in November 2009,
synthesizes the most significant findings of those reports.
AICD was commissioned by the Infrastructure Consortium
for Africa after the 2005 G-8 summit at Gleneagles, which
recognized the importance of scaling up donor finance for
infrastructure in support of Africa’s development.
The first phase of AICD focused on 24 countries that
together account for 85 percent of the gross domestic
product, population, and infrastructure aid flows of Sub-
Saharan Africa. The countries are: Benin, Burkina Faso,
Cape Verde, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya,
Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia,
Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan,
Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Under a second phase of
the project, coverage is expanding to include as many other
African countries as possible.
Consistent with the genesis of the project, the main focus is
on the 48 countries south of the Sahara that face the most
severe infrastructure challenges. Some components of the
study also cover North African countries so as to provide a
broader point of reference. Unless otherwise stated,
therefore, the term “Africa” will be used throughout this
report as a shorthand for “Sub-Saharan Africa.”
The World Bank is implementing AICD with the guidance
of a steering committee that represents the African Union,
the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD),
Africa’s regional economic communities, the African
Development Bank, the Development Bank of Southern
Africa, and major infrastructure donors.
Financing for AICD is provided by a multidonor trust fund
to which the main contributors are the U.K.’s Department
for International Development, the Public Private
Infrastructure Advisory Facility, Agence Française de
Développement, the European Commission, and Germany’s
KfW Entwicklungsbank. The Sub-Saharan Africa Transport
Policy Program and the Water and Sanitation Program
provided technical support on data collection and analysis
pertaining to their respective sectors. A group of
distinguished peer reviewers from policy-making and
academic circles in Africa and beyond reviewed all of the
major outputs of the study to ensure the technical quality of
the work.
The data underlying AICD’s reports, as well as the reports
themselves, are available to the public through an
interactive Web site, www.infrastructureafrica.org, that
allows users to download customized data reports and
perform various simulations. Inquiries concerning the
availability of data sets should be directed to the editors at
the World Bank in Washington, DC.
Annex 1 Country output tables
This appendix lists detailed output tables for the overall investment requirements in Sub-Saharan
Africa. We report country tables highlighting the difference in investment, refurbishment and variable
costs under each scenario, as well as investment and refurbishment volumes, capacity mix, cross-border
transmission capacity investments and energy trade.
Southern Africa Power Pool 3
Angola 3
Botswana 7
Democratic Republic of Congo 11
Lesotho 15
Malawi 19
Mozambique 23
Namibia 27
Republic of South Africa 31
Zambia 35
Zimbabwe 39
Nile Basin – East Africa Power Pool 44
Burundi 44
Djibouti 49
Egypt 53
Ethiopia 57
Kenya 62
Rwanda 66
Sudan 70
Tanzania 75
Uganda 79
Western Africa Power Pool 83
Benin 83
Burkina Faso 87
Côte d’Ivoire 91
Gambia 96
Ghana 100
Guinea 104
Guinea Bissau 109
Liberia 113
Mali 117
Mauritania 121
Niger 125
Nigeria 129
Senegal 133
Sierra Leone 137
Togo 141
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Central Africa Power Pool 145
Cameroon 145
Central African Republic 150
Chad 154
Republic of Congo (Br.) 158
Equatorial Guinea 162
Gabon 166
Islands States 170
Cape Verde 170
Madagascar 174
Mauritius 178
Regional totals for the island states 182
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
3
Southern Africa Power Pool
Angola
Table A1.1 Overview: Angola 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 8.9 9.6 11.0 0.1 8.8
Exports (TWh) 4.8 4.9 5.0 0.1 4.5
Net exports (TWh) -4.1 -4.7 -6.0 0.0 -4.3
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
620 620 620 620 620
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 198 198 203 305 203
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 0 2 8 1 184 8
New cross-border transmission
(MW) 1 802 1 902 2 120 0 1 735
Target Access Rate 14 % 24 % 46 % 46 % 46 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
88 % 88 % 88 % 80 % 88 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 4 % 4 % 4 % 16 % 4 %
Other 7 % 8 % 8 % 3 % 8 %
Table A1.2 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Angola
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects* - - -
Trade stagnation Medio Kwanza 6,700 10 Not available
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
4
Table A1.3 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Angola
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.1 0.7 2.6 288.8 2.6
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.3 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 265.9 0.0
Other 0.1 0.7 2.6 2.6 2.6
Rehabilitation cost 10.5 10.5 10.8 12.3 10.8
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0
Hydro 10.5 10.5 10.8 10.8 10.8
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0 0.0
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.2 0.0
Installed
capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.8 0.0
T&D Investment cost 231 276 357 269 291
Cross-border
grid 78 81 87 0 73
Distribution
grid 139 139 139 139 87
Urban
connection 11 31 79 79 79
Rural
connection 2 24 51 51 51
Rehabilitation cost 38 38 38 38 38
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 78 78 78 78 78
Total Capital cost 280 325 408 609 342
Investment
Cost 231 277 359 558 293
Rehabilitation
cost 49 49 49 50 49
Variable cost 78 78 78 177 78
TOTAL 357 403 486 785 420
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
5
Table A1.4 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Angola
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Existing
capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
T&D Investment cost 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5
Cross-border
grid 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Distribution
grid 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Urban
connection 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Rural
connection 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total Capital cost 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6
Investment
cost 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Variable cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
Total 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.7
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
6
Table A1.5 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Angola
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.5 6 20 2,250 20
Rehabilitation
cost 59 59 61 71 61
T&D Investment cost 1,860 2,222 2,873 2,170 2,341
Rehabilitation
cost 308 308 308 308 308
Total 2,228 2,595 3,262 4,799 2,730
Table A1.6 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Angola
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.8 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
T&D Investment cost 2.3 % 2.8 % 3.6 % 2.7 % 3.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 %
Total 2.8 % 3.3 % 4.1 % 6.1 % 4.5 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
7
Botswana
Table A1.7 Overview: Botswana 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 11.9 10.1 10.4 1.2 15.2
Exports (TWh) 7.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 11.8
Net Exports (TWh) -4.1 -4.1 -4.3 5.3 -3.3
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
120 120 120 120 120
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 12 12 12 12 12
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)* 0 0 6 1 206 6
New cross-border Transmission
(MW) 2 656 2 077 2 141 0 4 194
Target Access Rate 30 % 40 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Coal 100 % 100 % 96 % 100 % 96 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 0 % 4 % 0 % 4 %
* Mmamabula power plant (2 400 MW) is, for modelling purposes, assumed to be located in South Africa (in order to reflect the short distance between the power plant and the point where the power will be fed into the South African transmission grid). Consequently, the investment volumes and costs of Mmamabula are not included in the tables for Botswana, but in the tables for South Africa.
Table A1.8 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Botswana
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects* - - -
Trade stagnation No new projects* - - -
*Only mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
8
Table A1.9 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Botswana
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.1 2.1 196.4 2.1
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 194.3 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Rehabilitation cost 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Thermal 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 10.3 10.3 10.3 171.8 10.3
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 161.5 0.0
Installed
capacity 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
T&D Investment cost 30 31 59 50 55
Cross-border 12 10 10 0 17
Distribution
grid 19 19 19 19 8
Urban
connection 0 2 7 7 7
Rural
connection 0 1 24 24 24
Rehabilitation cost 14 14 14 14 14
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 29 29 29 29 29
Total Capital cost 45 46 76 260 72
Investment
cost 30 31 61 246 57
Rehabilitation
cost 14 14 14 14 14
Variable cost 39 39 39 201 39
Total 84 85 115 461 111
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
9
Table A1.10 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Botswana
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.1
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
Existing
capacity 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
T&D Investment cost 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
Cross-border 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Distribution
grid 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Urban
connection 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Rural
connection 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Total Capital cost 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.7 0.6
Investment
cost 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.6 0.4
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Variable cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.3
Total 0.5 0.5 0.7 2.9 0.9
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
10
Table A1.11 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Botswana
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 1 16 1,336 16
Rehabilitation
cost 4 4 4 4 4
T&D Investment cost 245 252 478 399 446
Rehabilitation
cost 111 111 111 111 111
Total 359 367 609 1,850 577
Table A1.12 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Botswana
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 8.5 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 1.6 % 1.6 % 3.1 % 2.6 % 3.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.9 %
Total 2.3 % 2.3 % 3.9 % 11.8 % 4.5 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
11
Democratic Republic of Congo
Table A1.13 Overview: DRC 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
Exports (TWh) 49.9 50.7 52.2 2.7 50.1
Net Exports (TWh) 49.9 50.5 51.9 2.3 49.7
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 2 224 2 230 2 236 2 236 2 236
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 7 169 7 604 8 401 761 7 972
New cross-border Transmission
(MW) 5 678 5 772 5 984 0 5 657
Target Access Rate 8 % 20 % 39 % 39 % 39 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
100 % 100 % 100 % 99 % 100 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 0 % 0 % 1 % 0 %
Table A1.14 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Democratic Republic of Congo
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion Nzilo II 120 4 No estimate
Zongo II 150 4 No estimate
Inga III 3,500 5 1,730
Grand Inga 1 6,000 12 4,025
Trade stagnation Nzilo II 120 4 No estimate
Zongo II 150 4 No estimate
Inga III 3,500 5 1,730
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
12
Table A1.15 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – DRC
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access
Rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 652 697 774 80 735
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 652 689 760 66 721
Other 0 8 14 14 14
Rehabilitation cost 110 110 110 110 110
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 110 110 110 110 110
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 0 0
New capacity 0 0 0 0 0
Installed
capa
city
0 0 0 0 0
T&D Investment cost 109 275 500 446 493
Cross-border 53 53 54 0 53
Distribution
grid 29 29 29 29 23
Urban
connection 24 104 256 256 256
Rural
connection 3 89 162 162 162
Rehabilitation cost 38 38 38 38 38
Variable cost (existing capacity) 49 49 49 49 49
Total Capital cost 909 1,120 1,423 674 1,377
Investment
cost 761 972 1,275 526 1,228
Rehabilitation
cost 148 148 148 148 148
Variable cost 49 49 49 49 49
Total 958 1,169 1,472 723 1,426
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
13
Table A1.16 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – DRC
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 5.8 6.2 6.9 0.7 7.1
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 5.8 6.2 6.8 0.6 6.9
Other 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Rehabilitation cost 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Existing
capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
T&D Investment cost 1.0 2.5 4.5 4.0 4.7
Cross-border 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5
Distribution
grid 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Urban
connection 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.5
Rural
connection 0.0 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.6
Rehabilitation cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Total Capital cost 8.1 10.0 12.7 6.0 13.2
Investment
cost 6.8 8.7 11.4 4.7 11.8
Rehabilitation
cost 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4
Variable cost 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Total 8.6 10.5 13.2 6.5 13.7
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
14
Table A1.17 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – DRC
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 4,616.2 4,940 5,491 573 5,215
Rehabilitation
cost 620 622 623 623 623
T&D Investment cost 877 2,216 4,029 3,593 3,971
Rehabilitation
cost 307 307 307 307 307
Total 6,421 8,085 10,451 5,097 10,117
Table A1.18 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – DRC
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 41.3 44.2 49.1 5.1 50.1
Rehabilitation
cost
5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.0
T&D Investment cost 7.8 19.8 36.0 32.1 38.2
Rehabilitation
cost
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0
Total 57.4 72.3 93.5 45.6 97.2
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
15
Lesotho
Table A1.19 Overview: Lesotho 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Exports (TWh) -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
75 75 75 75 75
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 0 0 0 0 0
New cross-border Transmission
(MW) 0 0 0 0 0
Target Access Rate 6 % 17 % 35 % 35 % 35 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 % 5 %
Table A1.20 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Lesotho
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects - - -
Trade stagnation No new projects - - -
*Only mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.21 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Lesotho
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Rehabilitation cost 0 0 0 0 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 0 0
New capacity 0 0 0 0 0
Installed
capacity 0 0 0 0 0
T&D Investment cost 6 10 0 17 14
Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid 6 6 6 6 3
Urban
connection 0 2 5 5 5
Rural
connection 0 1 6 6 6
Rehabilitation cost 2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 7 7 7 7 7
Total Capital cost 8 12 19 19 16
Investment
Cost 6 10 17 17 14
Rehabilitation
cost 2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost 7 7 7 7 7
Total 15 18 25 25 22
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.22 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Lesotho
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Existing
capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
T&D Investment cost 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8
Cross-border 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Distribution
grid 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Urban
connection 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Rural
connection 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Total Capital cost 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9
Investment
cost 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Variable cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Total 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.23 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Lesotho
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost 0 0 0 0 0
T&D Investment cost 50 77 134 134 111
Rehabilitation
cost 17 17 17 17 17
Total 67 94 151 151 128
Table A1.24 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Lesotho
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rehabilitation
cost
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
T&D Investment cost 2.3 3.6 6.2 6.2 6.2
Rehabilitation
cost
0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
Total 3.1 4.3 7.0 7.0 7.2
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Malawi
Table A1.25 Overview: Malawi 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 1.3 2.1 1.8 0.0 1.3
Exports (TWh) 0.1 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -1.2 -1.7 -1.5 1.6 -1.3
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
175 175 175 175 175
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 100 100 100 100 100
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 0 0 1 698 1
New cross-border
transmission (MW) 177 261 227 0 197
Target access rate 7 % 18 % 15 % 15 % 15 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hyd
ro 92 % 92 % 91 % 98 % 91 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 6 % 6 % 6 % 2 % 6 %
Oth
er 3 % 3 % 3 % 1 % 3 %
Table A1.26 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Malawi
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects* - -
Trade stagnation Songwe**
343 7 Notavailable
Kaphichira Phase II 58 4 50
Kholombizo 240 7 391
Fufu 100 6 141
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
** Borders to Tanzania
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.27 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Malawi
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
Rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0 0 0.3 135.0 0.3
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 134.8 0
Other 0 0 0.3 0.3 0.3
Rehabilitation cost 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 0 0
New capacity 0 0 0 0 0
Installed
capacity 0 0 0 0 0
T&D Investment cost 13 34 33 32 31
Cross-border 1 1 1 0 1
Distribution
grid 7 7 7 7 5
Urban
connection 5 26 17 17 17
Rural
connection 1 1 9 9 9
Rehabilitation cost 5 5 5 5 5
Variable cost (existing capacity) 14 14 14 14 14
Total Capital cost 22 43 43 176 41
Investment
cost 13 34 34 167 32
Rehabilitation
cost 9 9 9 9 9
Variable cost 14 14 14 14 14
Total 35 57 56 190 54
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.28 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Malawi
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Existing
capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
T&D Investment cost 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Cross-border 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Distribution
grid 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Urban
connection 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6
Rural
connection 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Total Capital cost 0.7 1.4 1.4 5.7 1.4
Investment
cost 0.4 1.1 1.1 5.4 1.1
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Variable cost 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Total 1.2 1.9 1.8 6.2 1.9
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.29 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Malawi
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0 2 1,039 2
Rehabilitation
cost 22 22 22 22 22
T&D Investment cost 103 276 269 261 253
Rehabilitation
cost 42 42 42 42 42
Total 167 340 335 1,364 319
Table A1.30 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Malawi
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.0 0.1 33.8 0.1
Rehabilitation
cost
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
T&D Investment cost 3.4 9.0 8.8 8.5 9.0
Rehabilitation
cost
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
Total 5.4 11.1 10.9 44.4 11.3
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Mozambique
Table A1.31 Overview: Mozambique 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 12.7 13.4 13.2 7.0 12.5
Exports (TWh) 19.1 19.2 19.1 9.2 20.2
Net exports (TWh) 6.4 5.8 5.9 2.1 7.7
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
2 174 2 174 2 174 2 174 2 174
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 180 180 180 180 180
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 3 247 3 248 3 248 2 348 3 248
New cross-border transmission
(MW) 1 400 1 400 1 400 0 1 253
Target access rate 14 % 23 % 20 % 20 % 20 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
97 % 97 % 97 % 69 % 97 %
Coal 3 % 3 % 3 % 30 % 3 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Table A1.32 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Mozambique
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion Boroma 160 7 150
Mpanda Uncua 1,300 10 2,000
Cahora Bassa North 850 5 771
Lurio 183 4 339
Lupata 654 8 1,215
Mazingir 40 4 55
Mawuzi III 60 3 119
Trade stagnation Boroma 160 7 150
Mpanda Uncua 1,300 10 2,000
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.33 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mozambique
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 605.6 605.9 605.9 407.3 605.9
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 202.4 0.0
Hydro 605.6 605.6 605.6 204.6 605.6
Other 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Rehabilitation cost 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
Thermal 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
Hydro 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 17.4 17.4 17.4 147.4 17.4
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 130.0 0.0
Installed
capacity 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4
T&D Investment cost 47 82 75 58 67
Cross-border 17 17 17 0 16
Distribution
grid 17 17 17 17 11
Urban
connection 12 34 28 28 28
Rural
connection 0 14 13 13 13
Rehabilitation cost 20 20 20 20 20
Variable cost (existing capacity) 43 43 43 43 43
Total Capital cost 682 718 711 494 703
Investment
Cost 653 688 681 465 673
Rehabilitation
cost 30 30 30 30 30
Variable cost 60 60 60 190 60
Total 742 778 771 685 763
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.34 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mozambique
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 6.2 6.2 6.2 4.2 6.8
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0
Hydro 6.2 6.2 6.2 2.1 6.8
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.2
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0
Existing
capacity 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
T&D Investment cost 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8
Cross-border 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2
Distribution
grid 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Urban
connection 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Rural
connection 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Total Capital cost 7.0 7.3 7.3 5.1 7.9
Investment
cost 6.7 7.0 7.0 4.8 7.5
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Variable cost 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.9 0.7
Total 7.6 8.0 7.9 7.0 8.5
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.35 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mozambique
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 4,649.7 4,653 4,652 2,949 4,652
Rehabilitation
cost 54 54 54 54 54
T&D Investment cost 379 664 604 464 541
Rehabilitation
cost 162 162 162 162 162
Total 5,244 5,532 5,472 3,628 5,408
Table A1.36 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mozambique
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 47.5 % 47.5 % 47.5 % 30.1 % 52.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
T&D Investment cost 3.9 % 6.8 % 6.2 % 4.7 % 6.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.8 %
Total 53.6 % 56.5 % 55.9 % 37.1 % 60.4 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Namibia
Table A1.37 Overview: Namibia 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 4.8 4.8 4.9 1.2 4.4
Exports (TWh) 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.0 1.6
Net Exports (TWh) -3.7 -3.8 -3.8 0.9 -2.8
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
240 240 240 240 240
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 120 120 120 120 120
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 0 1 2 1 059 2
New cross-border Transmission
(MW) 544 550 556 0 498
Target Access Rate 37 % 45 % 53 % 53 % 53 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
67 % 66 % 66 % 31 % 66 %
Coal 33 % 33 % 33 % 8 % 33 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 60 % 0 %
Other 0 % 0 % 1 % 0 % 1 %
Table A1.38 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Namibia
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects - -
Trade stagnation Popa Falls 23 4 No estimate
Baine* 180 4 320
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
**Borders to Angola
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.39 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Namibia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 0.4 0.7 129.6 0.7
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.5 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.4 0.0
Other 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7
Rehabilitation cost 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Thermal 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 13.1 13.1 13.1 213.1 13.1
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 200.1 0.0
Installed
capacity 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1
T&D Investment cost 98 103 107 77 71
Cross-border 29 29 30 0 26
Distribution
grid 67 67 67 67 34
Urban
connection 2 3 4 4 4
Rural
connection 0 3 7 7 7
Rehabilitation cost 55 55 55 55 55
Variable cost (existing capacity) 102 102 102 102 102
Total Capital cost 159 164 169 268 133
Investment
Cost 98 103 108 207 72
Rehabilitation
cost 61 61 61 61 61
Variable cost 115 115 115 315 115
Total 274 279 284 583 248
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.40 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Namibia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.3 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.8 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 2.1 % 0.2 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.0 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
T&D Investment cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 0.8 % 0.8 %
Cross-border 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.0 % 0.3 %
Distribution
grid 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.4 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.2 %
Total Capital cost 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.7 % 2.6 % 1.6 %
Investment
cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 2.0 % 0.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 %
Variable cost 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 3.1 % 1.4 %
Total 2.7 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 5.8 % 2.9 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.41 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Namibia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 3 6 939 6
Rehabilitation cost 36 36 36 36 36
T&D Investment cost 787 826 863 623 571
Rehabilitation cost 440 440 440 440 440
Total 1,263 1,305 1,345 2,038 1,052
Table A1.42 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Namibia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 9.3 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
T&D Investment cost 7.8 % 8.2 % 8.5 % 6.2 % 6.7 %
Rehabilitation cost 4.4 % 4.4 % 4.4 % 4.4 % 5.2 %
Total 12.5 % 12.9 % 13.3 % 20.2 % 12.4 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
31
Republic of South Africa
Table A1.43 Overview: South Africa 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 38.8 37.2 37.7 21.8 45.1
Exports (TWh) 0.6 0.8 1.4 7.8 1.2
Net exports (TWh) -38.3 -36.4 -36.4 -14.0 -44.0
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
13 463 13 463 13 463 13 463 13 463
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 21 690 21 690 21 690 21 690 21 690
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)* 18 657 19 082 19 399 20 873 7 239
New cross-border transmission
(MW) 819 528 547 0 1 647
Target access rate 71 % 79 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
8 % 8 % 8 % 8 % 11 %
Coal 82 % 82 % 82 % 83 % 77 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 9 % 9 % 9 % 9 % 12 %
* Mmamabula power plant (2 400 MW) is, for modelling purposes, assumed to be located in South Africa (in order to reflect the short distance between the power plant and the point where the power will be fed into the South African transmission grid). Consequently, the investment volumes and costs of Mmamabula are not included in the tables for Botswana, but in the tables for South Africa.
Table A1.44 Possible Hydropower Expansion: South Africa
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate (Mill.
USD)
Trade
expansion
Bramhoek Pumped
Storage 1,332 5 1,400
Steelport Pumped
Storage 1,000 7 976
Trade
stagnation Same
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
32
Table A1.45 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – South Africa
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 2,607.3 2,677.2 2,745.3 2,984.0 776.7
Thermal 2,138.8 2,206.7 2,244.9 2,483.6 276.3
Hydro 313.7 313.7 313.7 313.7 313.7
Other 154.8 156.8 186.7 186.7 186.7
Rehabilitation cost 1,045.5 1,045.5 1,045.5 1,045.5 1,045.5
Thermal 1,013.6 1,013.6 1,013.6 1,013.6 1,013.6
Hydro 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 5,026.4 5,072.0 5,100.9 5,486.9 3,820.3
New capacity 1,985.6 2,048.6 2,084.1 2,305.7 256.5
Installed
capacity 3,040.8 3,023.3 3,016.8 3,181.3 3,563.8
T&D Investment cost 1,192 1,229 1,324 1,322 608
Cross-border 2 1 1 0 4
Distribution
grid 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 455
Urban
connection 18 37 70 70 70
Rural
connection 0 18 80 80 80
Rehabilitation cost 800 800 800 800 800
Variable cost (existing capacity) 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495 2,495
Total Capital cost 5,645 5,752 5,914 6,152 3,230
Investment
Cost 3,800 3,907 4,069 4,306 1,385
Rehabilitation
cost 1,846 1,846 1,846 1,846 1,846
Variable cost 7,521 7,567 7,596 7,982 6,315
Total 13,167 13,319 13,510 14,134 9,546
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.46 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – South Africa
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 0.3 %
Thermal 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.1 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 %
Thermal 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.6 % 1.3 %
New capacity 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.2 %
T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.2 %
Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.8 %
Total Capital cost 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.7 % 1.8 % 1.1 %
Investment
cost 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 0.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Variable cost 2.1 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.3 % 2.1 %
Total 3.8 % 3.8 % 3.9 % 4.0 % 3.2 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.47 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – South Africa
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 17,929 18,406 18,894 20,515 5,518
Rehabilitation
cost 5,908 5,908 5,908 5,908 5,908
T&D Investment cost 9,605 9,903 10,661 10,651 4,900
Rehabilitation
cost 6,445 6,445 6,445 6,445 6,445
Total 39,887 40,662 41,907 43,518 22,770
Table A1.48 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – South Africa
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 5.1 % 5.3 % 5.4 % 5.9 % 1.9 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 2.0 %
T&D Investment cost 2.7 % 2.8 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 1.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 2.2 %
Total 11.4 % 11.6 % 12.0 % 12.4 % 7.7 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Zambia
Table A1.49 Overview: Zambia 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 41.0 41.1 41.1 2.4 41.1
Exports (TWh) 39.4 39.2 39.3 8.4 40.4
Net Exports (TWh) -1.6 -1.8 -1.8 6.0 -0.7
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
268 268 268 268 268
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 1 670 1 670 1 670 1 670 1 670
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 0 2 3 1 726 3
New cross-border Transmission
(MW) 7 548 7 511 7 526 0 7 694
Target access rate 20 % 29 % 29 % 29 % 29 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
95 % 95 % 95 % 97 % 95 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 4 % 4 % 4 % 2 % 4 %
Other 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 %
Table A1.50 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Zambia
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects* - - -
Trade stagnation Kafue Gorge Lower 600 6 600
Itezhi Tezi 120 5 142
Kalungwhishi 163 7 210
Batoka**
800 10 1,250
Devils Gorge**
300 7 454
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
** Borders to Zimbabwe
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.51 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Zambia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0 0.6 1.0 302.3 1.0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 301.4 0
Other 0 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0
Rehabilitation cost 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5 56.5
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 0 0 0 0
New capacity 0 0 0 0 0
Installed
capacity 0 0 0 0 0
T&D Investment cost 193 225 233 92 217
Cross-border 141 142 142 0 141
Distribution
grid 43 43 43 43 27
Urban
connection 8 16 11 11 11
Rural
connection 1 24 38 38 38
Rehabilitation cost 81 81 81 81 81
Variable cost (existing capacity) 99 99 99 99 99
Total Capital cost 330 364 372 532 356
Investment
cost 193 226 234 394 218
Rehabilitation
cost 138 138 138 138 138
Variable cost 99 99 99 99 99
Total 429 463 471 631 455
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.52 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Zambia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35%
access r
ate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.8 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.8 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 1.8 % 2.1 % 2.2 % 0.9 % 2.3 %
Cross-border 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 0.0 % 1.5 %
Distribution
grid 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Total Capital cost 3.1 % 3.4 % 3.5 % 5.0 % 3.7 %
Investment
cost 1.8 % 2.1 % 2.2 % 3.7 % 2.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.4 %
Variable cost 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Total 4.0 % 4.3 % 4.4 % 5.9 % 4.7 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
38
Table A1.53 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Zambia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 4 7 2,310 7
Rehabilitation cost 319 319 319 319 319
T&D Investment cost 1,551 1,814 1,881 740 1,747
Rehabilitation cost 655 655 655 655 655
Total 2,524 2,793 2,862 4,023 2,729
Table A1.54 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Zambia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 21.7 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 3.0 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 3.0 % 3.3 %
T&D Investment cost 14.6 % 17.0 % 17.7 % 6.9 % 18.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.8 %
Total 23.7 % 26.2 % 26.9 % 37.8 % 28.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
39
Zimbabwe
Table A1.55 Overview: Zimbabwe 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 25.9 24.8 25.5 12.4 28.3
Exports (TWh) 23.1 21.6 22.0 8.8 27.7
Net Exports (TWh) -2.7 -3.2 -3.5 -3.6 -0.6
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 1 835 1 835 1 835 1 835 1 835
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 2 225 2 228 2 251 2 158 2 251
New cross-border Transmission
(MW) 3 388 2 979 3 072 0 4 371
Target Access Rate 41 % 49 % 67 % 67 % 67 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
74 % 73 % 73 % 47 % 73 %
Coal 26 % 26 % 26 % 52 % 26 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 0 % 1 % 1 % 1 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
40
Table A1.56 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Zimbabwe
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate (Mill.
USD)
Trade
expansion
Gairezi 35 2 35
Condo 100 100
Batoka**
800 10 1,250
Devils Gorge**
300 7 454
Mupata Gorge**
300 7 454
Victoria Falls**
390 7 590
Kariba South
Extension
300 3 200
Trade
stagnation
Gairezi 35 2 35
Condo 100 100
Batoka**
800 10 1,250
Devils Gorge**
300 7 454
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
** Borders to Zambia
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
41
Table A1.57 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Zimbabwe
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 402.5 403.7 411.7 375.5 411.7
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 165.2 0.0
Hydro 402.5 402.5 402.5 201.2 402.5
Other 0.0 1.2 9.2 9.2 9.2
Rehabilitation cost 97.4 97.4 97.4 97.4 97.4
Thermal 57.1 57.1 57.1 57.1 57.1
Hydro 40.4 40.4 40.4 40.4 40.4
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 116.9 116.9 116.9 223.0 116.9
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 106.1 0.0
Installed
capacity 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9 116.9
T&D Investment cost 115 145 238 201 214
Cross-border 41 36 37 0 52
Distribution
grid 75 75 75 75 36
Urban
connection 0 19 20 20 20
Rural
connection 0 15 106 106 106
Rehabilitation cost 160 160 160 160 160
Variable cost (existing capacity) 185 185 185 185 185
Total Capital cost 775 807 907 834 883
Investment
Cost 518 549 650 577 626
Rehabilitation
cost 257 257 257 257 257
Variable cost 302 302 302 408 302
Total 1,077 1,109 1,210 1,243 1,186
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
42
Table A1.58 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Zimbabwe
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 8.5 % 8.6 % 8.7 % 8.0 % 9.9 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.5 % 0.0 %
Hydro 8.5 % 8.5 % 8.5 % 4.3 % 9.7 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.3 %
Thermal 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.4 %
Hydro 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 4.7 % 2.8 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.3 % 0.0 %
Installed
capacity 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.8 %
T&D Investment cost 2.4 % 3.1 % 5.1 % 4.3 % 5.1 %
Cross-border 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.0 % 1.2 %
Distribution
grid 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 0.9 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.5 %
Rehabilitation cost 3.4 % 3.4 % 3.4 % 3.4 % 3.8 %
Variable cost (existing capacity) 3.9 % 3.9 % 3.9 % 3.9 % 4.4 %
Total Capital cost 16.4 % 17.1 % 19.2 % 17.7 % 21.2 %
Investment
Cost 11.0 % 11.7 % 13.8 % 12.2 % 15.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 5.5 % 5.5 % 5.5 % 5.5 % 6.2 %
Variable cost 6.4 % 6.4 % 6.4 % 8.7 % 7.3 %
Total 22.9 % 23.5 % 25.7 % 26.4 % 28.4 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
43
Table A1.59 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Zimbabwe
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 3,081.6 3,091 3,152 2,733 3,152
Rehabilitation
cost 551 551 551 551 551
T&D Investment cost 927 1,172 1,919 1,621 1,726
Rehabilitation
cost 1,288 1,288 1,288 1,288 1,288
Total 5,848 6,101 6,909 6,192 6,716
Table A1.60 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Zimbabwe
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 65.4 % 65.6 % 66.9 % 58.0 % 75.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 11.7 % 11.7 % 11.7 % 11.7 % 13.2 %
T&D Investment cost 19.7 % 24.9 % 40.7 % 34.4 % 41.4 %
Rehabilitation
cost 27.3 % 27.3 % 27.3 % 27.3 % 30.9 %
Total 124.1 % 129.4 % 146.6 % 131.4 % 161.1 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
44
Nile Basin – East Africa Power Pool
Burundi
Table A1.61 Overview: Burundi 2015
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.8
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2
Net Exports (TWh) -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 0.0 -0.6
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
13 13 13 13 13
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
18 18 18 18 18
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 15 30 173 30
New cross-border Transmission
(MW)
39 86 78 0 66
Target Access Rate 6 % 25 % 31 % 31 % 31 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro 84 % 56 % 43 % 60 % 43 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 16 % 44 % 57 % 40 % 57 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.62 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Burundi
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects* - - -
Trade stagnation Ruzizi III ** 27 4 32
Rusumo Falls *** 21 5 38
Kabu 16 20 5 44
Kaganuzi Complex 39 5 162
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
** Borders to DRC and Rwanda
*** Borders to Tanzania and Rwanda
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
46
Table A1.63 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Burundi
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 5.9 11.4 71.7 11.4
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.8 0.0
Other 0.0 5.9 11.4 29.9 11.4
Rehabilitation cost 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.4 0.4 0.5 2.0 0.5
New capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0
Installed
capacity 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.4
T&D Investment cost 7 47 69 68 68
Cross-border
grid 0 1 1 0 0
Distribution
grid 3 3 3 3 2
Urban
connection 4 14 8 8 8
Rural
connection 0 29 57 57 57
Rehabilitation cost 1 1 1 1 1
Variable cost (existing capacity) 4 4 4 4 4
Total Capital cost 10 55 82 142 82
Investment
Cost 7 53 80 140 80
Rehabilitation
cost 2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost 4 4 4 6 4
Total 14 59 87 148 86
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
47
Table A1.64 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Burundi
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.9 % 5.7 % 1.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.3 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.9 % 2.4 % 1.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.0 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.6 % 3.7 % 5.5 % 5.5 % 5.8 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Urban
connection 0.3 % 1.1 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 2.3 % 4.6 % 4.6 % 4.9 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total Capital cost 0.8 % 4.4 % 6.6 % 11.4 % 7.0 %
Investment
cost 0.6 % 4.2 % 6.4 % 11.2 % 6.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.4 %
Total 1.1 % 4.7 % 6.9 % 11.8 % 7.4 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
48
Table A1.65 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Burundi
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.3 43 83 558 83
Rehabilitation
cost 5 5 5 5 5
T&D Investment cost 59 385 571 567 567
Rehabilitation
cost 9 9 9 9 9
Total 75 443 669 1,140 665
Table A1.66 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Burundi
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 3.4 % 6.7 % 44.6 % 7.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 %
T&D Investment cost 4.8 % 30.8 % 45.6 % 45.3 % 48.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 %
Total 6.0 % 35.4 % 53.5 % 91.1 % 56.7 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Djibouti
Table A1.67 Overview: Djibouti 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Generation capacity -
installed (MW)
85 85 85 85 85
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
45 53 54 54 60
New cross-border Transmission
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Target Access Rate 31 % 50 % 53 % 53 % 53 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Table A1.68 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Djibouti
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects - - -
Trade stagnation No new projects - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
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Table A1.69 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Djibouti
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 18.8 22.1 22.5 22.5 24.8
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 18.8 22.1 22.5 22.5 24.8
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
New capacity 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
Installed
capacity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
T&D Investment cost 1 3 4 4 4
Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid 0 0 0 0 0
Urban
connection 1 3 3 3 3
Rural
connection 0 0 1 1 1
Rehabilitation cost 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (existing capacity) 1 1 1 1 1
Total Capital cost 20 26 27 27 29
Investment
cost 20 25 27 27 29
Rehabilitation
cost 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost 2 2 2 2 2
Total 22 27 29 29 31
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Table A1.70 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Djibouti
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 1.9 % 2.2 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.7 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 1.9 % 2.2 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.7 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Total Capital cost 2.0 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 3.2 %
Investment
cost 2.0 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 3.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Total 2.2 % 2.8 % 2.9 % 2.9 % 3.4 %
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Table A1.71 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Djibouti
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 136 160 163 163 179
Rehabilitation cost 0 0 0 0 0
T&D Investment cost 9 27 34 34 33
Rehabilitation cost 2 2 2 2 2
Total 146 189 199 199 215
Table A1.72 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Djibouti
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 13.8 % 16.2 % 16.5 % 16.5 % 19.5 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.9 % 2.8 % 3.5 % 3.5 % 3.6 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Total 14.9 % 19.2 % 20.2 % 20.2 % 23.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Egypt
Table A1.73 Overview: Egypt 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 55.2 46.5 43.2 1.0 44.6
Exports (TWh) 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Net Exports (TWh) -54.8 -45.5 -42.2 0.0 -43.7
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
17 103 17 103 17 103 17 103 17 103
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
113 113 113 113 113
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
6 988 8 163 8 529 11 439 6 609
New cross-border Transmission
(MW)
10 000 10 000 10 000 0 10 000
Target Access Rate 93 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro 12 % 12 % 11 % 10 % 12 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 87 % 88 % 88 % 89 % 87 %
Other 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 %
Table A1.74 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Egypt
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects* - - -
Trade stagnation No new projects* - - -
*Only mini-hydro in rural node
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Table A1.75 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Egypt
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 692 827 862 1 143 677
Thermal 669 775 810 1 091 625
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 23 52 52 52 52
Rehabilitation cost 3 3 3 3 3
Thermal 3 3 3 3 3
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 4 552 5 188 5 399 8 429 4 296
New capacity 3 979 4 616 4 826 6 496 3 724
Installed
capacity 573 573 573 1 933 573
T&D Investment cost 287 367 367 367 315
Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid 130 130 130 130 78
Urban
connection 92 92 92 92 92
Rural
connection 65 145 145 145 145
Rehabilitation cost 172 172 172 172 172
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 310 310 310 310 310
Total Capital cost 1,155 1,369 1,405 1,686 1,167
Investment
cost 979 1,194 1,229 1,510 991
Rehabilitation
cost 175 175 175 175 175
Variable cost 4,862 5,498 5,708 8,739 4,606
Total 6,016 6,867 7,113 10,424 5,773
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.76 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015 – Egypt
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.9 % 0.6 %
Thermal 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.8 % 0.5 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 3.4 % 3.9 % 4.0 % 6.3 % 3.6 %
New capacity 3.0 % 3.4 % 3.6 % 4.8 % 3.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 1.4 % 0.5 %
T&D Investment cost 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Total Capital cost 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.0 %
Investment
cost 0.7 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.1 % 0.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 3.6 % 4.1 % 4.3 % 6.5 % 3.8 %
Total 4.5 % 5.1 % 5.3 % 7.8 % 4.8 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.77 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Egypt
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 4,795.6 5,721 5,966 7,916 4,679
Rehabilitation
cost 19 19 19 19 19
T&D Investment cost 2,349 3,035 3,035 3,035 2,612
Rehabilitation
cost 1,386 1,386 1,386 1,386 1,386
Total 8,549 10,160 10,406 12,356 8,696
Table A1.78 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Egypt
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 3.6 % 4.3 % 4.4 % 5.9 % 3.9 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 1.8 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.2 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 %
Total 6.4 % 7.6 % 7.8 % 9.2 % 7.2 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Ethiopia
Table A1.79 Overview: Ethiopia 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.4 3.4
Exports (TWh) 30.9 29.6 29.6 3.3 30.0
Net Exports (TWh) 30.9 28.5 26.2 -0.1 26.6
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
831 831 831 831 831
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
335 335 335 335 335
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
8 157 8 323 8 699 1 933 8 699
New cross-border Transmission
(MW)
3 527 3 258 2 997 0 3 048
Target Access Rate 15 % 32 % 60 % 60 % 60 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro 100 % 98 % 94 % 81 % 94 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 2 % 6 % 19 % 6 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.80 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Ethiopia
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate (Mill.
USD)
Trade
expansion
Mandaya 2,000 8 247
Baro 2 + Genji 700 7 502
Geba (1 & 2) 372 6 361
Halele Wrabesa (1 &
2)
422 5 474
Karadobi 1,600 8 2,040
Genale III 258 5 304
Border 1,200 6 1,626
Beles 220 4 294
Chemoga Yeda (1&2) 281 4 403
Neshe 43 3 69
Genale IV 256 4 383
Alethu West 265 6 561
Alethu East I 186 6 438
Gojeb 153 5 287
Baro 1 200 5 505
Trade
stagnation
Mandaya 2,000 8 247
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.81 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Ethiopia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 1,135.5 1,199.8 1,344.9 403.1 1,344.9
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 1,135.3 1,135.3 1,135.3 193.5 1,135.3
Other 0.2 64.5 209.6 209.6 209.6
Rehabilitation cost 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 133.2 141.3 159.5 62.4 159.5
New capacity 97.0 123.1 141.4 28.6 123.3
Installed
capacity 36.3 18.2 18.2 33.8 36.3
T&D Investment cost 206 687 1,658 1,598 1,636
Cross-border 71 66 61 0 62
Distribution
grid 69 69 69 69 46
Urban
connection 64 120 120 120 120
Rural
connection 2 431 1,408 1,408 1,408
Rehabilitation cost 84 84 84 84 84
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 116 116 116 116 116
Total Capital cost 1,444 1,989 3,105 2,103 3,083
Investment
Cost 1,342 1,887 3,003 2,001 2,981
Rehabilitation
cost 102 102 102 102 102
Variable cost 249 257 276 178 276
Total 1,693 2,246 3,381 2,281 3,359
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.82 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Ethiopia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 6.2 % 6.5 % 7.3 % 2.2 % 8.2 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 6.2 % 6.2 % 6.2 % 1.1 % 7.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.4 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.3 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 0.3 % 1.0 %
New capacity 0.5 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.2 % 0.8 %
Existing
capacity 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
T&D Investment cost 1.1 % 3.7 % 9.0 % 8.7 % 10.0 %
Cross-border 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.0 % 0.4 %
Distribution
grid 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 %
Urban
connection 0.3 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 2.3 % 7.7 % 7.7 % 8.6 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 %
Total Capital cost 7.9 % 10.8 % 16.9 % 11.4 % 18.9 %
Investment
cost 7.3 % 10.3 % 16.3 % 10.9 % 18.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 %
Variable cost 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.0 % 1.7 %
Total 9.2 % 12.2 % 18.4 % 12.4 % 20.6 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.83 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Ethiopia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 8,500.1 8,972 10,037 2,987 10,037
Rehabilitation
cost 101 101 101 101 101
T&D Investment cost 1,660 5,623 13,649 13,161 13,471
Rehabilitation
cost 679 679 679 679 679
Total 10,940 15,375 24,466 16,928 24,288
Table A1.84 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Ethiopia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 46.3 % 48.8 % 54.6 % 16.3 % 61.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
T&D Investment cost 9.0 % 30.6 % 74.3 % 71.6 % 82.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 4.2 %
Total 59.6 % 83.7 % 133.2 % 92.2 % 148.8 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Kenya
Table A1.85 Overview: Kenya 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 2.0 0.5 3.3 1.0 2.7
Exports (TWh) 3.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5
Net Exports (TWh) 1.3 -0.4 -2.8 -0.5 -2.2
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
695 695 695 695 695
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
383 389 389 395 389
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
901 913 987 1 237 987
New cross-border Transmission
(MW)
600 0 266 0 201
Target Access Rate 27 % 42 % 67 % 67 % 67 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro 44 % 44 % 42 % 36 % 42 %
Coal 34 % 34 % 32 % 28 % 32 %
Gas 7 % 7 % 7 % 20 % 7 %
Other 14 % 15 % 19 % 17 % 19 %
Table A1.86 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Kenya
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion No new projects* - - -
Trade stagnation No new projects* - - -
*Only mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.87 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Kenya
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 231 235 264 288 264
Thermal 81 81 81 105 81
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 150 155 183 183 183
Rehabilitation cost 20 21 21 21 21
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 20 20 20 20 20
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 144 144 144 298 144
New capacity 131 131 131 282 131
Installed
capacity 13 13 13 16 13
T&D Investment cost 132 214 412 409 397
Cross-border 15 0 3 0 2
Distribution
grid 65 65 65 65 50
Urban
connection 51 120 200 200 200
Rural
connection 1 29 144 144 144
Rehabilitation cost 48 48 48 48 48
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 130 130 130 130 130
Total Capital cost 431 518 745 766 730
Investment
Cost 362 450 676 697 661
Rehabilitation
cost 68 69 69 69 69
Variable cost 274 274 274 428 274
Total 705 792 1,019 1,194 1,004
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.88 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Kenya
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.0 %
Thermal 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.3 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.5 %
New capacity 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.5 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.5 % 0.7 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 %
Cross-border 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Urban
connection 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Total Capital cost 1.5 % 1.8 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.7 %
Investment
cost 1.3 % 1.6 % 2.3 % 2.4 % 2.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Variable cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.5 % 1.0 %
Total 2.4 % 2.8 % 3.5 % 4.2 % 3.7 %
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Table A1.89 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Kenya
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 1,628.9 1,664 1,875 2,042 1,875
Rehabilitation
cost 115 118 118 119 118
T&D Investment cost 1,062 1,732 3,353 3,329 3,231
Rehabilitation
cost 387 387 387 387 387
Total 3,193 3,901 5,733 5,878 5,611
Table A1.90 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Kenya
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 5.7 % 5.8 % 6.5 % 7.1 % 7.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
T&D Investment cost 3.7 % 6.0 % 11.7 % 11.6 % 12.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.4 %
Total 11.1 % 13.6 % 19.9 % 20.4 % 20.9 %
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Rwanda
Table A1.91 Overview: Rwanda 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports (TWh) 1.1 0.7 1.1 0.0 1.1
Net Exports (TWh) 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.0 1.1
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
25 25 25 25 25
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
24 24 24 24 24
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
327 330 330 94 330
New cross-border Transmission
(MW)
120 90 120 0 124
Target Access Rate 16 % 29 % 18 % 18 % 18 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro 95 % 95 % 95 % 86 % 95 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 5 % 5 % 5 % 14 % 5 %
Table A1.92 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Rwanda
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion Ruzizi III**
27 4 32
Ruzizi Div.***
135 6 160
Rusumo Falls**
31 5 57
Sici 3***
87 3 203
Nyabarongo 28 4 111
Panzi***
19 4 69
Trade stagnation Ruzizi III**
27 4 32
Ruzizi Div.**
135 6 160
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
** Borders to DRC and Burundi
*** Borders to DRC
**** Borders to Tanzania and Burundi
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.93 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Rwanda
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 80.8 81.7 81.8 23.6 81.8
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 80.8 80.8 80.8 22.6 80.8
Other 0.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Rehabilitation cost 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 5.8 5.8 5.8 2.0 5.8
New capacity 4.8 4.8 4.8 1.0 4.8
Installed
capacity 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
T&D Investment cost 16 36 21 20 19
Cross-border 1 1 1 0 1
Distribution
grid 3 3 3 3 1
Urban
connection 13 28 13 13 13
Rural
connection 0 4 5 5 5
Rehabilitation cost 2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 5 5 5 5 5
Total Capital cost 100 121 106 47 104
Investment
Cost 97 117 103 44 101
Rehabilitation
cost 3 3 3 3 3
Variable cost 11 11 11 7 11
Total 111 131 116 53 115
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Table A1.94 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Rwanda
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 0.7 % 2.6 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 0.6 % 2.6 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.2 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 %
Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Urban
connection 0.4 % 0.8 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
Total Capital cost 2.9 % 3.4 % 3.0 % 1.3 % 3.4 %
Investment
cost 2.8 % 3.3 % 2.9 % 1.2 % 3.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Total 3.2 % 3.7 % 3.3 % 1.5 % 3.7 %
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Table A1.95 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Rwanda
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 631.4 638 639 184 639
Rehabilitation
cost 7 7 7 7 7
T&D Investment cost 132 288 169 162 157
Rehabilitation
cost 16 16 16 16 16
Total 786 949 831 368 818
Table A1.96 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015)– Rwanda
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 18.0 % 18.2 % 18.2 % 5.2 % 20.7 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
T&D Investment cost 3.8 % 8.2 % 4.8 % 4.6 % 5.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 %
Total 22.4 % 27.1 % 23.7 % 10.5 % 26.5 %
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Sudan
Table A1.97 Overview: Sudan 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 39.0 31.2 29.2 0.2 30.0
Exports (TWh) 54.8 45.7 42.4 0.2 43.8
Net Exports (TWh) 15.8 14.5 13.1 0.0 13.9
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
2 554 2 554 2 554 2 554 2 554
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
3 676 3 709 3 704 568 3 704
New cross-border Transmission
(MW)
14 567 13 675 13 491 0 13 397
Target Access Rate 34 % 50 % 60 % 60 % 60 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro 87 % 87 % 87 % 73 % 87 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 6 % 6 % 6 % 13 % 6 %
Other 6 % 7 % 7 % 14 % 7 %
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Table A1.98 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Sudan
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate (Mill.
USD)
Trade expansion Shirri 400 8 549
Shukoli 210 8 420
Lakki 210 8 429
Bedden 400 8 880
Fula I 720 8 1,319
Morgat 240 4 595
Roseires ext. +
Dinder 135 4 173
Dal Low 340 6 1,096
Dagash 285 6 1,048
Sabaloka 120 3 396
Shereiq 315 6 1,190
Kabjar 300 7 1,125
Trade
stagnation Shirri 400 8 549
Shukoli 210 8 420
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.99 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Sudan
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 1,166 1,179 1,177 182 1,177
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 1,166 1,166 1,166 171 1,166
Other 0 13 11 11 11
Rehabilitation cost 0 13 11 11 11
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 88 90 90 37 90
New capacity 51 53 52 1 50
Installed
capacity 37 37 37 36 40
T&D Investment cost 161 297 340 303 318
Cross-border 50 39 37 0 37
Distribution
grid 59 59 59 59 37
Urban
connection 48 104 166 166 166
Rural
connection 4 94 78 78 78
Rehabilitation cost 43 43 43 43 43
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 97 97 97 97 97
Total Capital cost 1,370 1,519 1,560 529 1,538
Investment
cost 1,327 1,476 1,517 485 1,495
Rehabilitation
cost 43 43 43 43 43
Variable cost 186 187 187 135 187
Total 1,556 1,707 1,748 663 1,725
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Table A1.100 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Sudan
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 2.6 % 2.6 % 2.6 % 0.4 % 3.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 2.6 % 2.6 % 2.6 % 0.4 % 3.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
T&D Investment cost 0.4 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.7 % 0.8 %
Cross-border 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Total Capital cost 3.1 % 3.4 % 3.5 % 1.2 % 3.9 %
Investment
cost 3.0 % 3.3 % 3.4 % 1.1 % 3.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.5 %
Total 3.5 % 3.8 % 3.9 % 1.5 % 4.4 %
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Table A1.101 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Sudan
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 9,223.7 9,318 9,304 1,434 9,304
Rehabilitation
cost 0 0 0 0 0
T&D Investment cost 1,299 2,410 2,754 2,457 2,576
Rehabilitation
cost 348 348 348 348 348
Total 10,870 12,076 12,406 4,239 12,228
Table A1.102 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Sudan
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 20.6 % 20.8 % 20.7 % 3.2 % 23.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 2.9 % 5.4 % 6.1 % 5.5 % 6.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 %
Total 24.2 % 26.9 % 27.7 % 9.5 % 31.1 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Tanzania
Table A1.103 Overview: Tanzania 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets
for access
rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5
Exports (TWh) 2.1 0.1 2.9 0.5 2.3
Net Exports (TWh) 2.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 1.8
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
468 468 468 468 468
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
305 305 305 305 305
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
1 753 1 862 2 046 1 767 1 864
New cross-border Transmission
(MW)
224 0 266 0 201
Target Access Rate 13 % 30 % 29 % 29 % 29 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro 68 % 65 % 61 % 67 % 65 %
Coal 24 % 23 % 21 % 20 % 23 %
Gas 9 % 12 % 14 % 9 % 9 %
Other 0 % 0 % 4 % 4 % 4 %
Table A1.104 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Tanzania
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion Ruzumo**
62 5
Songwe***
330 7
Mpanga 144 8 191
Masigira 118 7 157
Rumakali 222 10 351
Ruhudji 358 8 611
Trade stagnation Same - - -
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
** Borders to Rwanda and Burundi
*** Borders to Malawi
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.105 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Tanzania
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 243.2 254.9 302.5 269.6 285.0
Thermal 97.1 107.3 115.2 82.3 97.7
Hydro 146.1 146.1 146.1 146.1 146.1
Other 0.0 1.5 41.2 41.2 41.2
Rehabilitation cost 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2
Thermal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.2
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 131.6 180.9 219.5 115.4 134.3
New capacity 113.7 171.9 201.6 97.4 125.3
Installed
capacity 17.9 9.0 17.9 17.9 9.0
T&D Investment cost 63 156 276 265 263
Cross-border 10 0 12 0 9
Distribution
grid 29 29 29 29 18
Urban
connection 24 118 51 51 51
Rural
connection 0 9 184 184 184
Rehabilitation cost 36 36 36 36 36
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 60 60 60 60 60
Total Capital cost 358 463 631 586 600
Investment
cost 306 411 579 534 548
Rehabilitation
cost 52 52 52 52 52
Variable cost 192 241 280 176 195
Total 550 704 911 762 794
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.106 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Tanzania
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 1.3 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.4 % 1.7 %
Thermal 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.4 % 0.6 %
Hydro 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.2 % 0.6 % 0.8 %
New capacity 0.6 % 0.9 % 1.1 % 0.5 % 0.7 %
Existing
capacity 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.8 % 1.5 % 1.4 % 1.6 %
Cross-border 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Distribution
grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.6 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 %
Total Capital cost 1.9 % 2.5 % 3.4 % 3.1 % 3.5 %
Investment
cost 1.6 % 2.2 % 3.1 % 2.8 % 3.2 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Variable cost 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 0.9 % 1.2 %
Total 2.9 % 3.7 % 4.8 % 4.0 % 4.7 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.107 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Tanzania
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 1,742.4 1,824 2,174 1,948 2,052
Rehabilitation
cost 92 92 92 92 92
T&D Investment cost 507 1,257 2,294 2,199 2,184
Rehabilitation
cost 289 289 289 289 289
Total 2,630 3,461 4,849 4,527 4,617
Table A1.108 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Tanzania
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 9.3 % 9.7 % 11.5 % 10.3 % 12.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
T&D Investment cost 2.7 % 6.7 % 12.2 % 11.7 % 12.9 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.7 %
Total 14.0 % 18.4 % 25.7 % 24.0 % 27.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Uganda
Table A1.109 Overview: Uganda 2015
Trade expansion Trade
stagnation
Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 1.0
Exports (TWh) 4.9 3.2 3.6 0.8 3.9
Net Exports (TWh) 4.1 2.7 2.8 0.4 2.9
Generation capacity - installed
(MW) 358 358 358 358 358
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 191 191 191 191 191
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 1 198 1 271 1 258 707 1 258
New cross-border Transmission
(MW) 745 421 537 0 407
Target Access Rate 8 % 27 % 25 % 25 % 25 %
Generation capacity
mix (%):
Hydro
94 % 90 % 91 % 87 % 91 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 6 % 10 % 9 % 13 % 9 %
Table A1.110 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Uganda
Scenario Project* Planned capacity (MW) Lead time (years) Cost estimate (Mill. USD)
Trade expansion Bujagali # 5 50 4 31
Kalagala tot 450 8 512
Murchison Base 2 222 10 397
Ayago North 304 8 730
Bygoe 13 3 25
Bujagali 200 4 526
Trade stagnation Bujagali # 5 50 4 31
Kalagala tot 450 8 512
Murchison Base 2 222 10 397
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.111 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Uganda
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access
rates, trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 289 317 312 179 312
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 289 289 289 156 289
Other 0 29 24 24 24
Rehabilitation cost 10 10 10 10 10
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 10 10 10 10 10
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 27 27 27 18 27
New capacity 12 12 19 3 19
Installed
capacity 14 14 7 14 7
T&D Investment cost 58 203 186 174 179
Cross-border
grid 16 10 12 0 9
Distribution
grid 23 23 23 23 19
Urban
connection 13 54 54 54 54
Rural
connection 6 116 96 96 96
Rehabilitation cost 28 28 28 28 28
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 39 39 39 39 39
Total Capital cost 385 559 536 391 529
Investment
Cost 347 520 498 353 491
Rehabilitation
cost 38 38 38 38 38
Variable cost 65 65 65 56 65
Total 451 624 601 448 594
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Table A1.112 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Uganda
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation
Low
growth
Current
access
rate
35%
access
rate
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates
National
targets for
access
rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 2.0 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 1.2 % 2.3 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 2.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 % 1.1 % 2.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
T&D Investment cost 0.4 % 1.4 % 1.3 % 1.2 % 1.3 %
Cross-border
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Distribution
grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.8 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total Capital cost 2.7 % 3.9 % 3.7 % 2.7 % 3.9 %
Investment
cost 2.4 % 3.6 % 3.5 % 2.5 % 3.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 0.5 %
Total 3.1 % 4.3 % 4.2 % 3.1 % 4.4 %
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Table A1.113 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Uganda
Tradeexpansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 2,255.0 2,463 2,426 1,389 2,426
Rehabilitation
cost 57 57 57 57 57
T&D Investment cost 472 1,672 1,525 1,429 1,470
Rehabilitation
cost 226 226 226 226 226
Total 3,010 4,419 4,234 3,101 4,180
Table A1.114 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Uganda
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 15.7 % 17.1 % 16.9 % 9.7 % 17.9 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
T&D Investment cost 3.3 % 11.6 % 10.6 % 9.9 % 10.9 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.7 %
Total 21.0 % 30.8 % 29.5 % 21.6 % 30.9 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Western Africa Power Pool
Benin
Table A1.115 Overview: Benin 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.9
Exports (TWh) 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -0.4 -0.8
Generation capacity - installed
(MW) 75 75 75 75 75
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW) 112 112 112 112 112
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW) 0 3 4 76 4
New cross-border
transmission (MW) 162 81 160 0 92
Target Access Rate 25 % 35 % 50 % 50 % 50 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro 17 % 16 % 16 % 12 % 16 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 28 % 0 %
Other 83 % 84 % 84 % 61 % 84 %
Table A1.116 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Benin
Scenario Project
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
No new
projects* - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.117 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Benin
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 1 1 8 1
Thermal 0 0 0 7 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 1 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost
4 4 4 4 4
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 2 2 2 2 2
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 57 57 57 94 57
New capacity 0 0 0 37 0
Installed
capacity
57 57 57 57 57
T&D
Investment
cost
28 45 66 65 61
Cross-border
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
18 18 18 18 13
Urban
connection
8 18 35 35 35
Rural
connection
2 9 12 12 12
Rehabilitation
cost
15 15 15 15 15
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
36 36 36 36 36
Total Capital cost 47 65 86 93 81
Investment
Cost
28 46 67 74 62
Rehabilitation
cost
19 19 19 19 19
Variable cost 93 93 93 130 93
TOTAL 140 158 179 223 174
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Table A1.118 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Benin
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.4 % 0.9 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.6 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 %
T&D Investment cost 0.4 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Total Capital cost 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.4 % 1.3 %
Investment
cost 0.4 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Variable cost 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 2.0 % 1.5 %
Total 2.1 % 2.4 % 2.7 % 3.4 % 2.9 %
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Table A1.119 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Benin
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 1.2 8 10 59 10
Rehabilitation
cost 23 23 23 23 23
T&D
Investment
cost 227 363 528 527 489
Rehabilitation
cost 120 120 120 120 120
Total 371 514 681 729 642
Table A1.120 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Benin
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.9 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 %
T&D
Investment
cost 3.5 % 5.5 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 2.0 %
Total 5.7 % 7.8 % 10.4 % 11.1 % 10.6 %
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Burkina Faso
Table A1.121 Overview: Burkina Faso 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0
Exports (TWh) 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
66 66 66 66 66
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
95 95 95 95 95
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 1 0 0 0
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
117 50 0 0 0
Target Access Rate 9 % 20 % 23 % 23 % 23 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 61 % 61 % 61 % 61 % 61 %
Table A1.122 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Burkina Faso
Scenario Project
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
No new
projects* - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
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Table A1.123 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Burkina Faso
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
4 4 4 4 4
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 3 3 3 3 3
Other 1 1 1 1 1
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 24 39 39 39 39
New capacity 0 0 0 0 0
Installed
capacity
24 39 39 39 39
T&D
Investment
cost
21 44 50 50 49
Cross-border
grid
3 1 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
10 10 10 10 9
Urban
connection
8 31 39 39 39
Rural
connection
0 2 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost
17 17 17 17 17
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
32 32 32 32 32
Total Capital cost 42 65 71 71 71
Investment
Cost
21 44 50 50 50
Rehabilitation
cost
21 21 21 21 21
Variable cost 57 71 71 71 71
TOTAL 99 136 142 142 142
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Table A1.124 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Burkina Faso
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Total Capital cost 0.6 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 %
Investment
cost 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Variable cost 0.7 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Total 1.3 % 1.8 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.125 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Burkina Faso
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.2 1 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost 24 24 24 24 24
T&D
Investment
cost 170 355 405 405 398
Rehabilitation
cost 136 136 136 136 136
Total 330 517 566 566 559
Table A1.126 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Burkina Faso
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
T&D
Investment
cost 2.2 % 4.7 % 5.3 % 5.3 % 5.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 %
Total 4.3 % 6.8 % 7.5 % 7.5 % 7.5 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Côte d’Ivoire
Table A1.127 Overview: Côte d’Ivoire 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 15.2 13.9 11.1 0.2 11.9
Exports (TWh) 11.5 10.6 12.0 3.7 9.5
Net exports (TWh) -3.7 -3.3 0.9 3.5 -2.5
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
498 498 498 498 498
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
601 601 601 601 601
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
136 345 1,368 1,562 552
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
2,596 2,340 2,226 0 2,006
Target Access Rate 54 % 63 % 73 % 73 % 73 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
59 % 64 % 77 % 79 % 66 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 40 % 34 % 20 % 19 % 30 %
Other 0 % 1 % 2 % 2 % 3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.128 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Côte d’Ivoire
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
Soubre 316 6 471
Singrobo 80 3 184
Louga 280 5 678
Malamasso 90 3 245
Daboite 91 3 269
Ndieliesso 90 3 315
Missouli 21 2 not available
Kokumbo 78 3 not available
Abisso-Come 90 3 not available
Gibo-Popoli 112 4 not available
Boloubre 156 4 not available
Tayaboui 100 4 not available
Trade
stagnation Same
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.129 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Côte d’Ivoire
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
40 102 402 458 166
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 39 94 380 436 143
Other 1 8 22 22 22
Rehabilitation
cost
32 32 32 32 32
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 32 32 32 32 32
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 12 15 31 140 18
New capacity 1 4 13 17 6
Installed
capacity
11 12 18 123 12
T&D
Investment
cost
106 147 212 185 202
Cross-border
grid
32 28 27 0 24
Distribution
grid
38 38 38 38 30
Urban
connection
28 41 46 46 46
Rural
connection
8 39 101 101 101
Rehabilitation
cost
49 49 49 49 49
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
99 99 99 99 99
Total Capital cost 227 330 695 725 449
Investment
Cost
146 249 614 644 368
Rehabilitation
cost
81 81 81 81 81
Variable cost 111 114 131 239 117
TOTAL 338 445 826 964 566
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Table A1.130 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Côte d’Ivoire
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.2 % 0.5 % 1.8 % 2.1 % 0.8 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.2 % 0.4 % 1.7 % 2.0 % 0.7 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.6 % 0.1 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.6 % 0.1 %
T&D Investment cost 0.5 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Cross-border
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Distribution
grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Total Capital cost 1.0 % 1.5 % 3.2 % 3.3 % 2.2 %
Investment
cost 0.7 % 1.1 % 2.8 % 3.0 % 1.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 1.1 % 0.6 %
Total 1.5 % 2.0 % 3.8 % 4.4 % 2.7 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.131 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Côte d’Ivoire
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 312 802 3,159 3,600 1,295
Rehabilitation
cost 180 180 180 180 180
T&D
Investment
cost 852 1,184 1,708 1,494 1,629
Rehabilitation
cost 396 396 396 396 396
Total 1,741 2,563 5,444 5,671 3,500
Table A1.132 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Côte d’Ivoire
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 1.4 % 3.7 % 14.5 % 16.5 % 6.2 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 %
T&D
Investment
cost 3.9 % 5.4 % 7.8 % 6.8 % 7.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.9 %
Total 8.0 % 11.7 % 24.9 % 26.0 % 16.8 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Gambia
Table A1.133 Overview: Gambia 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports (TWh) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
Net exports (TWh) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
22 22 22 22 22
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
74 74 74 66 74
Generation capacity – new
investments (MW)
0 2 4 4 4
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
24 20 19 0 20
Target Access Rate 59 % 66 % 79 % 79 % 79 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Table A1.134 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Gambia
Scenario Project
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
No new
projects* - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.135 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Gambia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 1 2 2 2
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 1 2 2 2
Rehabilitation
cost
2 2 2 2 2
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 30 36 37 30 37
New capacity 0 0 0 0 0
Installed
capacity
30 36 37 30 37
T&D
Investment
cost
6 9 15 15 15
Cross-border
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
1 1 1 1 1
Urban
connection
4 5 7 7 7
Rural
connection
0 3 7 7 7
Rehabilitation
cost
1 1 1 1 1
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
1 1 1 1 1
Total Capital cost 8 13 20 19 20
Investment
Cost
6 10 17 17 17
Rehabilitation
cost
3 3 3 3 3
Variable cost 31 37 38 31 38
TOTAL 40 50 58 51 57
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Table A1.136 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Gambia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 4.5 % 5.2 % 5.4 % 4.5 % 5.7 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 4.5 % 5.2 % 5.4 % 4.5 % 5.7 %
T&D Investment cost 0.8 % 1.4 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.4 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.6 % 0.8 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 %
Rural
connection 0.1 % 0.5 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Total Capital cost 1.2 % 1.9 % 2.9 % 2.9 % 3.1 %
Investment
cost 0.8 % 1.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Variable cost 4.6 % 5.4 % 5.6 % 4.6 % 5.9 %
Total 5.9 % 7.3 % 8.4 % 7.5 % 9.0 %
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Table A1.137 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Gambia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.3 5 12 12 12
Rehabilitation
cost 12 12 12 11 12
T&D
Investment
cost 45 76 123 123 122
Rehabilitation
cost 6 6 6 6 6
Total 63 99 153 152 152
Table A1.138 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Gambia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.9 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.6 % 1.9 %
T&D
Investment
cost 6.6 % 11.2 % 18.1 % 18.0 % 19.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 %
Total 9.2 % 14.6 % 22.5 % 22.3 % 23.7 %
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Ghana
Table A1.139 Overview: Ghana 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 10.0 9.3 11.0 2.8 8.5
Exports (TWh) 1.7 0.6 1.4 0.3 1.6
Net exports (TWh) -8.3 -8.7 -9.6 -2.6 -6.9
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
1,713 1,713 1,713 1,713 1,713
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
160 160 160 160 160
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
980 1,005 1,048 1,400 1,048
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
922 770 979 0 659
Target Access Rate 55 % 62 % 76 % 76 % 76 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
76 % 76 % 75 % 67 % 75 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 19 % 19 % 19 % 28 % 19 %
Other 4 % 5 % 7 % 6 % 7 %
Table A1.140 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Ghana
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW) Lead time (years)
Cost estimate (Mill.
USD)
Trade expansion Awisam 88 3 174
Abatumesu 63 3 162
Juale 193 4 528
Bui 400 7 622
Asouso 51 3 150
Nounibiel**
(20%) 12 2 57
Sedukrom 26 not available
Jomuro 26 not available
Tanoso 30 not available
Kojokrom 36 not available
Hemang 54 not available
Trade stagnation Same
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
** Shared with Burkina Faso
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Table A1.141 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Ghana
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
262 272 288 322 288
Thermal 0 0 0 34 0
Hydro 262 262 262 262 262
Other 1 10 27 27 27
Rehabilitation
cost
9 9 9 9 9
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 9 9 9 9 9
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 32 32 32 530 32
New capacity 9 9 9 219 8
Installed
capacity
23 23 23 311 24
T&D
Investment
cost
128 180 271 266 243
Cross-border
grid
5 4 5 0 4
Distribution
grid
79 79 79 79 52
Urban
connection
42 53 73 73 73
Rural
connection
3 44 114 114 114
Rehabilitation
cost
34 34 34 34 34
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
94 94 94 94 94
Total Capital cost 433 494 602 630 573
Investment
Cost
391 452 560 588 531
Rehabilitation
cost
42 42 42 42 42
Variable cost 126 126 126 624 126
TOTAL 559 620 728 1,255 699
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Table A1.142 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Ghana
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 % 1.8 % 1.9 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.0 %
Hydro 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.7 %
Other 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 3.0 % 0.2 %
New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 1.2 % 0.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 1.8 % 0.2 %
T&D Investment cost 0.7 % 1.0 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 %
Urban
connection 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Total Capital cost 2.4 % 2.8 % 3.4 % 3.6 % 3.7 %
Investment
cost 2.2 % 2.6 % 3.2 % 3.3 % 3.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Variable cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 3.5 % 0.8 %
Total 3.2 % 3.5 % 4.1 % 7.1 % 4.6 %
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Table A1.143 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Ghana
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 2,058 2,129 2,253 2,489 2,253
Rehabilitation
cost 48 48 48 48 48
T&D
Investment
cost 1,034 1,450 2,184 2,142 1,954
Rehabilitation
cost 270 270 270 270 270
Total 3,410 3,896 4,755 4,949 4,525
Table A1.144 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Ghana
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 11.6 % 12.0 % 12.7 % 14.1 % 14.7 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
T&D
Investment
cost 5.8 % 8.2 % 12.3 % 12.1 % 12.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.8 %
Total 19.3 % 22.0 % 26.9 % 27.9 % 29.6 %
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Guinea
Table A1.145 Overview: Guinea 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports (TWh) 18.2 17.8 17.4 0.0 17.5
Net exports (TWh) 18.2 17.8 17.4 0.0 17.5
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
119 119 119 119 119
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
28 28 28 28 28
Generation capacity – new
investments (MW)
4,287 4,288 4,288 568 4,288
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
2,204 2,225 2,283 0 2,271
Target Access Rate 21 % 31 % 40 % 40 % 40 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
99 % 99 % 99 % 94 % 99 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 1 % 1 % 1 % 6 % 1 %
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Table A1.146 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Guinea
Scenario Project*
Planned
capacity (MW) Expected online
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
Kaléta I 105 2008 143
Sambangalou**
60 2009 139
Kaléta II 210 209
Kassa 118 93
Souapiti II 500 605
Amaria I 300 309
Amaria II 665 835
Souapiti II 750 1008
Balassa 181 171
Gozoguezia 48 110
Morisanako 100 246
Tiopo 120 296
Koukoutamba 281 440
Bouréa 161 373
Diaoya 149 332
Téné 76 122
Fello Sounga 82 263
Fomi 90 300
Grand Kikon 291 637
Trade
stagnation
Kaléta I 105 2008 143
Sambangalou**
60 2009 139
Kaléta II 210 209
Kassa 118 93
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
** Shared with Senegal
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Table A1.147 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Guinea
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
860 860 860 114 860
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 860 860 860 114 860
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
1 1 1 1 1
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 1 1 1 1 1
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 91 91 91 11 91
New capacity 71 71 71 8 71
Installed
capacity
20 20 20 3 20
T&D
Investment
cost
61 77 87 47 87
Cross-border
grid
44 43 40 0 41
Distribution
grid
6 6 6 6 5
Urban
connection
10 24 37 37 37
Rural
connection
1 4 4 4 4
Rehabilitation
cost
2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
7 7 7 7 7
Total Capital cost 924 940 951 165 951
Investment
Cost
920 936 947 161 947
Rehabilitation
cost
3 3 3 3 3
Variable cost 98 98 98 18 98
TOTAL 1,022 1,038 1,049 183 1,049
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Table A1.148 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Guinea
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 17.3 % 17.3 % 17.3 % 2.3 % 18.7 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 17.3 % 17.3 % 17.3 % 2.3 % 18.7 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 1.8 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 0.2 % 2.0 %
New capacity 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 0.2 % 1.5 %
Existing
capacity 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.1 % 0.4 %
T&D Investment cost 1.2 % 1.5 % 1.8 % 1.0 % 1.9 %
Cross-border
grid 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.0 % 0.9 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.2 % 0.5 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.8 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Total Capital cost 18.6 % 18.9 % 19.2 % 3.3 % 20.7 %
Investment
cost 18.6 % 18.9 % 19.1 % 3.3 % 20.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 2.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 % 0.4 % 2.1 %
Total 20.6 % 20.9 % 21.1 % 3.7 % 22.8 %
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Table A1.149 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Guinea
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 6,632 6,635 6,635 880 6,635
Rehabilitation
cost 8 8 8 8 8
T&D
Investment
cost 490 617 703 381 702
Rehabilitation
cost 15 15 15 15 15
Total 7,145 7,275 7,362 1,284 7,361
Table A1.150 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Guinea
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 133.7 % 133.8 % 133.8 % 17.7 % 144.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
T&D
Investment
cost 9.9 % 12.4 % 14.2 % 7.7 % 15.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total 144.1 % 146.7 % 148.4 % 25.9 % 160.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Guinea Bissau
Table A1.151 Overview: Guinea Bissau 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.6 1.2 2.1 0.0 1.5
Exports (TWh) 0.6 1.1 1.9 0.0 1.3
Net exports (TWh) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.2
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
22 22 22 22 22
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 0 0 24 0
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
266 538 818 0 646
Target Access Rate 14 % 25 % 33 % 33 % 33 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
0 % 0 % 0 % 44 % 0 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 56 % 100 %
Table A1.152 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Guinea Bissau
Scenario Project
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
No new
projects* - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
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Table A1.153 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Guinea Bissau
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 0 0 11 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 10 0
Other 0 0 0 1 0
Rehabilitation
cost
1 1 1 1 1
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 1 1 1 1 1
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 8 8 8 11 8
New capacity 0 0 0 2 0
Installed
capacity
8 8 8 8 8
T&D
Investment
cost
3 7 10 5 9
Cross-border
grid
2 3 5 0 4
Distribution
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Urban
connection
1 3 5 5 5
Rural
connection
0 1 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
1 1 1 1 1
Total Capital cost 3 8 11 18 10
Investment
Cost
3 7 11 17 9
Rehabilitation
cost
1 1 1 1 1
Variable cost 8 9 9 11 9
TOTAL 12 17 20 29 19
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Table A1.154 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Guinea Bissau
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.7 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 2.0 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.9 % 2.3 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.6 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 2.0 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 %
T&D Investment cost 0.7 % 1.9 % 2.8 % 1.5 % 2.5 %
Cross-border
grid 0.4 % 0.9 % 1.3 % 0.0 % 1.1 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.2 % 0.8 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.2 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Total Capital cost 0.9 % 2.1 % 3.0 % 4.7 % 2.8 %
Investment
cost 0.7 % 1.9 % 2.8 % 4.5 % 2.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Variable cost 2.2 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 3.0 % 2.4 %
Total 3.1 % 4.5 % 5.4 % 7.7 % 5.2 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.155 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Guinea Bissau
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0 1 0 84 0
Rehabilitation
cost 4 4 4 4 4
T&D
Investment
cost 20 57 84 44 76
Rehabilitation
cost 3 3 3 3 3
Total 27 64 91 135 82
Table A1.156 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Guinea Bissau
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 22.4 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 %
T&D
Investment
cost 5.4 % 15.2 % 22.4 % 11.7 % 20.4 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Total 7.1 % 16.9 % 24.1 % 35.8 % 22.2 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Liberia
Table A1.157 Overview: Liberia 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.6 0.7 1.7 0.0 1.6
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -0.6 -0.7 -1.7 0.0 -1.6
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
64 64 64 73 64
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 9 0 369 0
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
91 99 258 0 246
Target Access Rate 1 % 13 % 66 % 66 % 66 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
100 % 88 % 100 % 98 % 100 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 12 % 0 % 2 % 0 %
Table A1.158 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Liberia
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new projects
Trade
stagnation
Manu River 45
Mount Coffee
expansion
60 not available
Mano 1 180 605
SP-B1 120 437
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.159 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Liberia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 4 0 191 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 191 0
Other 0 4 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
3 3 3 4 3
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 3 3 3 3 3
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 1 1 1 14 1
New capacity 0 0 0 5 0
Installed
capacity
1 1 1 9 1
T&D
Investment
cost
5 23 39 37 36
Cross-border
grid
1 1 2 0 2
Distribution
grid
5 5 5 5 2
Urban
connection
0 0 32 32 32
Rural
connection
0 17 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
4 4 4 4 4
Total Capital cost 9 29 42 232 40
Investment
Cost
5 26 39 228 36
Rehabilitation
cost
3 3 3 4 3
Variable cost 5 5 5 18 5
TOTAL 14 35 48 250 45
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Table A1.160 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Liberia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 % 22.7 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 22.7 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.4 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 1.6 % 0.1 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.6 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 1.1 % 0.1 %
T&D Investment cost 0.7 % 2.7 % 4.6 % 4.4 % 4.7 %
Cross-border
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.0 % 0.2 %
Distribution
grid 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.3 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 4.0 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 2.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Total Capital cost 1.1 % 3.5 % 5.0 % 27.6 % 5.1 %
Investment
cost 0.7 % 3.1 % 4.6 % 27.1 % 4.7 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.4 %
Variable cost 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 2.1 % 0.7 %
Total 1.7 % 4.2 % 5.7 % 29.7 % 5.8 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.161 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Liberia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0 26 1 1,533 1
Rehabilitation
cost 19 19 19 20 19
T&D
Investment
cost 44 182 313 299 293
Rehabilitation
cost 0 0 0 0 0
Total 63 227 333 1,852 313
Table A1.162 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Liberia
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 3.1 % 0.1 % 182.4 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.5 %
T&D
Investment
cost 5.2 % 21.6 % 37.3 % 35.6 % 37.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Total 7.5 % 27.0 % 39.6 % 220.3 % 40.2 %
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Mali
Table A1.163 Overview: Mali 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 16.2 15.2 12.7 0.1 13.6
Exports (TWh) 15.4 14.0 10.9 0.4 11.7
Net exports (TWh) -0.8 -1.2 -1.9 0.3 -1.8
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
288 288 288 288 288
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
46 46 46 66 46
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 5 3 284 3
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
3,571 3,298 2,703 0 2,890
Target Access Rate 15 % 25 % 39 % 39 % 39 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
74 % 73 % 73 % 82 % 73 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 6 % 6 % 6 % 3 % 6 %
Other 20 % 21 % 21 % 14 % 21 %
Table A1.164 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Mali
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new projects
Trade
stagnation
Feloue 62 2 83.7
Gouina 95 2 160
Kenie 56 3 100
Gaoulgo 300 814
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
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Table A1.165 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mali
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 2 1 115 1
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 113 0
Other 0 2 1 2 1
Rehabilitation
cost
2 2 2 3 2
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 2 2 2 2 2
Other 0 0 0 1 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 4 4 4 40 4
New capacity 0 0 0 4 0
Installed
capacity
4 4 4 35 4
T&D
Investment
cost
70 92 111 85 106
Cross-border
grid
35 32 26 0 28
Distribution
grid
24 24 24 24 18
Urban
connection
9 25 52 52 52
Rural
connection
1 10 8 8 8
Rehabilitation
cost
18 18 18 18 18
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
43 43 43 43 43
Total Capital cost 91 114 132 220 128
Investment
Cost
70 94 112 199 107
Rehabilitation
cost
20 20 20 21 20
Variable cost 47 47 47 82 47
TOTAL 137 161 179 303 175
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Table A1.166 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mali
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.3 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.3 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.1 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.1 %
T&D Investment cost 0.8 % 1.1 % 1.3 % 1.0 % 1.4 %
Cross-border
grid 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.0 % 0.4 %
Distribution
grid 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Total Capital cost 1.1 % 1.3 % 1.6 % 2.6 % 1.6 %
Investment
cost 0.8 % 1.1 % 1.3 % 2.3 % 1.4 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.6 %
Total 1.6 % 1.9 % 2.1 % 3.6 % 2.2 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.167 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mali
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 1 13 7 916 7
Rehabilitation
cost 14 14 14 17 14
T&D
Investment
cost 565 739 893 681 857
Rehabilitation
cost 144 144 144 144 144
Total 724 910 1,058 1,759 1,023
Table A1.168 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mali
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 10.8 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
T&D
Investment
cost 6.6 % 8.7 % 10.5 % 8.0 % 11.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.9 %
Total 8.5 % 10.7 % 12.4 % 20.7 % 13.2 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Mauritania
Table A1.169 Overview: Mauritania 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.5
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 0.3 -0.5
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
37 37 37 37 37
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
63 63 63 63 63
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 0 1 136 1
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
21 48 79 0 54
Target Access Rate 23% 34 % 46 % 46 % 46 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 58 % 0 %
Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 42 % 100 %
Table A1.170 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Mauritania
Scenario Project
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
No new
projects* - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
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Table A1.171 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mauritania
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 0 0 13 0
Thermal 0 0 0 13 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
2 2 2 2 2
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 29 29 29 87 29
New capacity 0 0 0 58 0
Installed
capacity
29 29 29 29 29
T&D
Investment
cost
15 22 28 27 24
Cross-border
grid
0 1 1 0 1
Distribution
grid
11 11 11 11 7
Urban
connection
3 8 14 14 14
Rural
connection
0 2 2 2 2
Rehabilitation
cost
5 5 5 5 5
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
11 11 11 11 11
Total Capital cost 22 29 35 48 31
Investment
Cost
15 22 29 41 24
Rehabilitation
cost
7 7 7 7 7
Variable cost 39 39 39 97 39
TOTAL 61 68 74 145 70
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Table A1.172 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mauritania
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 2.2 % 0.9 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.5 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.9 %
T&D Investment cost 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total Capital cost 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.2 % 1.0 %
Investment
cost 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 1.0 % 0.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 2.5 % 1.2 %
Total 1.5 % 1.7 % 1.9 % 3.7 % 2.2 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.173 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mauritania
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0 1 1 93 1
Rehabilitation
cost 10 10 10 10 10
T&D
Investment
cost 121 175 228 221 191
Rehabilitation
cost 41 41 41 41 41
Total 172 227 281 365 244
Table A1.174 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mauritania
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.4 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
T&D
Investment
cost 3.1 % 4.4 % 5.8 % 5.6 % 6.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.3 %
Total 4.4 % 5.8 % 7.1 % 9.3 % 7.6 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Niger
Table A1.175 Overview: Niger 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.4 1.5
Exports (TWh) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -0.7 -1.4 -1.5 -0.4 -1.5
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
38 38 38 73 38
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 1 0 202 0
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
117 193 206 0 204
Target Access Rate 7 % 18 % 20 % 20 % 20 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
0 % 0 % 0 % 73 % 0 %
Coal 100 % 99 % 99 % 14 % 99 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 1 % 1 % 13 % 1 %
Table A1.176 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Niger
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion No new projects - - -
Trade
stagnation
Kandadji 125 4 359
Dyondyonga 26 2 69
Gambou I 50 3 not available
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.177 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Niger
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 0 0 72 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 72 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
2 2 2 4 2
Thermal 2 2 2 2 2
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 2 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 10 10 10 44 10
New capacity 0 0 0 3 0
Installed
capacity
10 10 10 41 10
T&D
Investment
cost
10 33 34 34 34
Cross-border
grid
1 1 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
4 4 4 4 4
Urban
connection
5 27 29 29 29
Rural
connection
0 2 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost
16 16 16 16 16
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
14 14 14 14 14
Total Capital cost 28 52 53 126 52
Investment
Cost
10 33 34 106 34
Rehabilitation
cost
18 18 18 20 18
Variable cost 24 24 24 59 24
TOTAL 52 75 76 185 76
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Table A1.178 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Niger
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.6 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.6 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 1.0 % 0.2 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.9 % 0.2 %
T&D Investment cost 0.2 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.7 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total Capital cost 0.6 % 1.1 % 1.2 % 2.8 % 1.2 %
Investment
cost 0.2 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 2.3 % 0.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Variable cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.3 % 0.5 %
Total 1.1 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 4.1 % 1.7 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.179 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Niger
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0 1 1 571 1
Rehabilitation
cost 11 11 11 13 11
T&D
Investment
cost 80 268 277 276 275
Rehabilitation
cost 129 129 129 129 129
Total 221 410 418 990 416
Table A1.180 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Niger
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 12.5 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
T&D
Investment
cost 1.8 % 5.9 % 6.1 % 6.1 % 6.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.9 %
Total 4.8 % 9.0 % 9.2 % 21.7 % 9.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Nigeria
Table A1.181 Overview: Nigeria 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 1.0 0.9 2.1 2.1 2.1
Exports (TWh) 0.2 2.2 4.2 2.4 3.9
Net exports (TWh) -0.8 1.3 2.1 0.3 1.8
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
1,011 1,011 1,011 1,011 1,011
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
4,057 4,644 5,454 5,208 4,017
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
10,323 10,522 10,828 10,828 10,828
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
161 224 366 0 296
Target Access Rate 59 % 67 % 82 % 82 % 82 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
85 % 81 % 76 % 77 % 83 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 14 % 17 % 21 % 20 % 14 %
Other 0 % 1 % 3 % 3 % 3 %
Table A1.182 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Nigeria
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
Mambila 3900 2000
Makurdi 1062 7 1983
Lakoja 1950 9 4463
Zungeru 950 not available
Onitsha 1050 not available
Ikom 736 not available
Guara 300 not available
Dadin Kova 34 not available
Katsina Ali 310 not available
Trade
stagnation
Same
*Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.183 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Nigeria
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
1,671 1,748 1,867 1,867 1,867
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 1,658 1,658 1,658 1,658 1,658
Other 13 90 210 210 210
Rehabilitation
cost
169 177 189 186 168
Thermal 17 26 38 34 17
Hydro 151 151 151 151 151
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 1,452 1,779 2,232 2,095 1,429
New capacity 121 121 121 128 121
Installed
capacity
1,331 1,659 2,111 1,966 1,308
T&D
Investment
cost
1,375 1,749 2,379 2,377 1,708
Cross-border
grid
1 1 2 0 1
Distribution
grid
1,013 1,013 1,013 1,013 343
Urban
connection
306 355 484 484 484
Rural
connection
55 380 880 880 880
Rehabilitation
cost
473 473 473 473 473
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
596 596 596 596 596
Total Capital cost 3,688 4,148 4,908 4,903 4,217
Investment
Cost
3,046 3,497 4,246 4,244 3,576
Rehabilitation
cost
642 651 662 659 641
Variable cost 2,048 2,376 2,828 2,691 2,026
TOTAL 5,736 6,523 7,736 7,594 6,243
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.184 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Nigeria
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 1.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 0.8 %
New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.7 % 0.8 % 1.1 % 1.0 % 0.8 %
T&D Investment cost 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.0 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.2 %
Urban
connection 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 %
Total Capital cost 1.9 % 2.1 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.5 %
Investment
cost 1.6 % 1.8 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 %
Variable cost 1.0 % 1.2 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.2 %
Total 2.9 % 3.3 % 3.9 % 3.9 % 3.7 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.185 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Nigeria
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 12,669 13,246 14,133 14,133 14,133
Rehabilitation
cost 976 1,035 1,117 1,092 972
T&D
Investment
cost 11,080 14,091 19,162 19,149 13,762
Rehabilitation
cost 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812 3,812
Total 28,537 32,184 38,224 38,186 32,679
Table A1.186 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Nigeria
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 6.5 % 6.8 % 7.2 % 7.2 % 8.4 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 %
T&D
Investment
cost 5.7 % 7.2 % 9.8 % 9.8 % 8.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 2.3 %
Total 14.6 % 16.4 % 19.5 % 19.5 % 19.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Senegal
Table A1.187 Overview: Senegal 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.9 1.5 2.0 0.7 1.5
Exports (TWh) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.5
Net exports (TWh) -0.5 -1.0 -1.4 -0.6 -1.0
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
205 205 205 205 205
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
139 139 139 139 139
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
251 254 258 320 258
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
175 324 487 0 380
Target Access Rate 34 % 44 % 51 % 51 % 51 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
0 % 0 % 0 % 9 % 0 %
Coal 42 % 42 % 42 % 38 % 42 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 58 % 58 % 58 % 53 % 58 %
Table A1.188 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Senegal
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
Sambangalou**
60 2009 139
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
** Shared with Guinea
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.189 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Senegal
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
41 42 44 62 44
Thermal 40 40 40 40 40
Hydro 0 0 0 18 0
Other 1 2 3 4 3
Rehabilitation
cost
4 4 4 4 4
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 4 4 4 4 4
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 131 131 131 185 131
New capacity 58 58 58 59 58
Installed
capacity
73 73 73 126 73
T&D
Investment
cost
281 307 326 323 238
Cross-border
grid
1 2 3 0 2
Distribution
grid
261 261 261 261 174
Urban
connection
16 32 42 42 42
Rural
connection
3 12 20 20 20
Rehabilitation
cost
118 118 118 118 118
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
370 370 370 370 370
Total Capital cost 444 471 491 507 403
Investment
Cost
322 349 369 385 281
Rehabilitation
cost
122 122 122 122 122
Variable cost 501 501 501 555 501
TOTAL 946 972 993 1,062 904
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.190 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Senegal
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.4 %
Thermal 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.4 % 1.1 %
New capacity 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 %
Existing
capacity 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.9 % 0.6 %
T&D Investment cost 2.1 % 2.3 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 1.9 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.4 %
Urban
connection 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 3.0 %
Total Capital cost 3.3 % 3.5 % 3.6 % 3.7 % 3.3 %
Investment
cost 2.4 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.8 % 2.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Variable cost 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 4.1 % 4.1 %
Total 7.0 % 7.2 % 7.3 % 7.8 % 7.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.191 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Senegal
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 279 287 299 443 299
Rehabilitation
cost 23 23 23 23 23
T&D
Investment
cost 2,266 2,473 2,623 2,601 1,913
Rehabilitation
cost 951 951 951 951 951
Total 3,519 3,734 3,895 4,018 3,186
Table A1.192 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Senegal
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.2 % 3.3 % 2.4 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
T&D
Investment
cost 16.7 % 18.2 % 19.3 % 19.1 % 15.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.0 % 7.7 %
Total 25.9 % 27.5 % 28.6 % 29.6 % 25.8 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Sierra Leone
Table A1.193 Overview: Sierra Leone 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 1.6 1.4 2.6 0.0 2.5
Exports (TWh) 0.6 0.7 1.7 0.0 1.6
Net exports (TWh) -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 0.0 -0.9
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
62 62 62 62 62
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
0 46 46 46 46
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 0 1 145 1
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
323 314 661 0 633
Target Access Rate 41 % 46 % 51 % 51 % 51 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
81 % 46 % 46 % 77 % 46 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 19 % 54 % 54 % 23 % 54 %
Table A1.194 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Sierra Leone
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
Benkongor I-III 200 511
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.195 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Sierra Leone
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 0 0 56 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 56 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
0 1 1 1 1
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 1 1 1 1
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 6 23 23 26 23
New capacity 0 0 0 2 0
Installed
capacity
6 23 23 24 23
T&D
Investment
cost
21 26 35 29 31
Cross-border
grid
3 3 7 0 6
Distribution
grid
5 5 5 5 1
Urban
connection
13 17 21 21 21
Rural
connection
0 1 2 2 2
Rehabilitation
cost
1 1 1 1 1
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
5 5 5 5 5
Total Capital cost 23 29 38 88 34
Investment
Cost
21 27 36 85 31
Rehabilitation
cost
1 3 3 3 3
Variable cost 10 28 28 31 28
TOTAL 33 57 66 118 61
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.196 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Sierra Leone
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.5 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 3.5 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.3 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.5 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.3 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.5 %
T&D Investment cost 1.3 % 1.6 % 2.2 % 1.8 % 2.0 %
Cross-border
grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.0 % 0.4 %
Distribution
grid 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.8 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total Capital cost 1.4 % 1.8 % 2.4 % 5.5 % 2.2 %
Investment
cost 1.3 % 1.7 % 2.2 % 5.3 % 2.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost 0.6 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.9 % 1.8 %
Total 2.0 % 3.5 % 4.1 % 7.4 % 3.9 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
140
Table A1.197 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Sierra Leone
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0 1 3 449 3
Rehabilitation
cost 0 8 8 8 8
T&D
Investment
cost 171 213 283 230 249
Rehabilitation
cost 11 11 11 11 11
Total 182 233 305 697 270
Table A1.198 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Sierra Leone
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 28.0 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
T&D
Investment
cost 10.6 % 13.3 % 17.6 % 14.3 % 15.9 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Total 11.3 % 14.5 % 19.0 % 43.4 % 17.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
141
Togo
Table A1.199 Overview: Togo 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 1.7 0.5 1.1 0.0 1.3
Exports (TWh) 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4
Net exports (TWh) -1.1 -0.4 -0.9 0.5 -0.9
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
31 31 31 91 31
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 199 200 321 200
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
61 0 5 0 0
Target Access Rate 21 % 30 % 50 % 50 % 50 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
100 % 99 % 99 % 56 % 99 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 44 % 0 %
Other 0 % 1 % 1 % 0 % 1 %
Table A1.200 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Togo
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
Adjaralla**
(50%)
49
Adjaralla ext.**
(50%)
38.5 2 76.5
Tchala 90 146
Tetetou 20 132
Trade
stagnation
Same
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
** Shared with Benin
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
142
Table A1.201 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Togo
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 60 60 72 60
Thermal 0 0 0 12 0
Hydro 0 60 60 60 60
Other 0 1 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost
2 2 2 3 2
Thermal 0 0 0 1 0
Hydro 2 2 2 2 2
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 4 4 97 4
New capacity 0 3 3 76 3
Installed
capacity
0 0 1 21 1
T&D
Investment
cost
10 19 37 37 37
Cross-border
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
3 3 3 3 3
Urban
connection
6 13 30 30 30
Rural
connection
0 3 4 4 4
Rehabilitation
cost
3 3 3 3 3
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
7 7 7 7 7
Total Capital cost 14 84 102 115 102
Investment
Cost
10 80 97 109 97
Rehabilitation
cost
5 5 5 5 5
Variable cost 8 11 11 105 11
TOTAL 22 95 113 219 113
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
143
Table A1.202 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Togo
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
53%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.5 % 2.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 3.4 % 0.1 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 2.6 % 0.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.7 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.7 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.2 % 0.5 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.1 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total Capital cost 0.5 % 2.9 % 3.5 % 4.0 % 3.6 %
Investment
cost 0.3 % 2.8 % 3.4 % 3.8 % 3.4 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 3.6 % 0.4 %
Total 0.8 % 3.3 % 3.9 % 7.6 % 4.0 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
144
Table A1.203 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Togo
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0 477 477 559 477
Rehabilitation
cost 9 9 9 15 9
T&D
Investment
cost 77 156 298 298 297
Rehabilitation
cost 24 24 24 24 24
Total 110 666 808 896 807
Table A1.204 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Togo
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
53% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 16.6 % 16.6 % 19.4 % 16.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.3 %
T&D
Investment
cost 2.7 % 5.4 % 10.3 % 10.3 % 10.4 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 %
Total 3.8 % 23.1 % 28.1 % 31.1 % 28.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Central Africa Power Pool
Cameroon
Table A1.205 Overview: Cameroon 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Exports (TWh) 6.9 6.7 6.9 0.2 7.6
Net exports (TWh) 6.9 6.6 6.7 0.0 7.4
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
249 249 249 249 249
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
596 596 596 596 596
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
2,430 2,443 2,471 1,015 2,471
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
796 789 831 0 905
Target Access Rate 61 % 68 % 71 % 71 % 71 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
96 % 96 % 95 % 91 % 95 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 4 % 4 % 5 % 9 % 5 %
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Table A1.206 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Cameroon
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
Memve'Ele 202 6 160
Nachtigal 267 7 318
Njock 150 371
Lom Pangar 56 3 115
Bini a Warak 75 4 not available
Song Ndong 280 not available
Kikot 500 not available
Sonmbengue 900 not available
Trade
stagnation
Memve'Ele 202 6 160
Nachtigal 267 7 318
Njock 150 371
Lom Pangar 56 3 115
Bini a Warak 75 4 not available
Song Ndong 280 not available
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
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Table A1.207 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Cameroon
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
410 415 426 180 426
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 410 410 410 164 410
Other 0 5 16 16 16
Rehabilitation
cost
32 32 32 32 32
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 32 32 32 32 32
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 54 54 54 29 54
New capacity 30 31 31 9 31
Installed
capacity
23 23 23 21 23
T&D
Investment
cost
86 124 169 147 165
Cross-border
grid
22 21 21 0 24
Distribution
grid
22 22 22 22 15
Urban
connection
42 50 41 41 41
Rural
connection
1 31 85 85 85
Rehabilitation
cost
21 21 21 21 21
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
43 43 43 43 43
Total Capital cost 549 592 647 380 643
Investment
Cost
497 539 595 328 591
Rehabilitation
cost
52 52 52 52 52
Variable cost 97 97 97 72 97
TOTAL 646 688 744 452 740
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Table A1.208 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Cameroon
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 1.6 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 0.7 % 1.9 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 0.7 % 1.8 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
New capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.7 %
Cross-border
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Total Capital cost 2.2 % 2.4 % 2.6 % 1.5 % 2.8 %
Investment
cost 2.0 % 2.1 % 2.4 % 1.3 % 2.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Variable cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.4 %
Total 2.6 % 2.7 % 3.0 % 1.8 % 3.2 %
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Table A1.209 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Cameroon
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 3,126 3,163 3,242 1,370 3,242
Rehabilitation
cost 179 179 179 179 179
T&D
Investment
cost 696 998 1,359 1,187 1,327
Rehabilitation
cost 167 167 167 167 167
Total 4,167 4,507 4,947 2,903 4,914
Table A1.210 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Cameroon
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 12.5 % 12.6 % 12.9 % 5.5 % 14.2 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.8 %
T&D
Investment
cost 2.8 % 4.0 % 5.4 % 4.7 % 5.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Total 16.6 % 18.0 % 19.7 % 11.6 % 21.5 %
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Central African Republic
Table A1.211 Overview: Central African Republic 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
18 18 18 18 18
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
24 68 143 143 139
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Target Access Rate 3 % 15 % 34 % 34 % 34 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Table A1.212 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Central African Republic
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
Boali III 10 not available
Palambo 300 450
Trade
stagnation
Same
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.213 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Central African Republic
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
5 13 28 28 27
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 5 13 28 28 27
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
1 1 1 1 1
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 1 1 1 1 1
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 1 1 3 3 3
New capacity 0 1 2 2 2
Installed
capacity
1 1 1 1 0
T&D
Investment
cost
1 9 20 20 20
Cross-border
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
1 1 1 1 1
Urban
connection
0 7 19 19 19
Rural
connection
0 1 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
1 1 1 1 1
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
2 2 2 2 2
Total Capital cost 9 25 51 51 50
Investment
Cost
6 23 48 48 47
Rehabilitation
cost
2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost 3 4 5 5 5
TOTAL 12 29 56 56 55
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Table A1.214 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Central African Republic
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.3 % 0.7 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.3 % 0.7 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.1 % 0.5 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.2 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.4 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.1 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Total Capital cost 0.5 % 1.4 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.9 %
Investment
cost 0.3 % 1.3 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 2.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total 0.6 % 1.6 % 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.2 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.215 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Central African Republic
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 36 103 214 214 209
Rehabilitation
cost 5 5 5 5 5
T&D
Investment
cost 11 76 164 164 162
Rehabilitation
cost 12 12 12 12 12
Total 65 197 396 396 388
Table A1.216 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Central African Republic
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 2.0 % 5.7 % 11.8 % 11.8 % 12.4 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
T&D
Investment
cost 0.6 % 4.2 % 9.0 % 9.0 % 9.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Total 3.6 % 10.8 % 21.8 % 21.8 % 23.0 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Chad
Table A1.217 Overview: Chad 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.0 1.3
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -0.2 -0.8 -1.3 0.0 -1.3
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
0 0 0 22 0
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 0 0 174 0
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
35 118 202 0 201
Target Access Rate 3 % 15 % 26 % 26 % 26 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Table A1.218 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Chad
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
No new
projects* - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
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Table A1.219 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Chad
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 0 0 33 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 33 0
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 1 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 1 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 84 0
New capacity 0 0 0 77 0
Installed
capacity
0 0 0 7 0
T&D
Investment
cost
2 22 39 39 39
Cross-border
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Urban
connection
2 20 38 38 38
Rural
connection
0 2 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
1 1 1 1 1
Total Capital cost 3 23 39 73 39
Investment
Cost
2 22 39 72 39
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 1 0
Variable cost 1 1 1 85 1
TOTAL 4 23 40 157 40
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.220 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Chad
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.0 % 0.0 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.9 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.5 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Total Capital cost 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.9 % 0.5 %
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.8 % 0.5 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1.0 % 0.0 %
Total 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 1.9 % 0.5 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.221 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Chad
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0 1 0 191 0
Rehabilitation
cost 0 0 0 4 0
T&D
Investment
cost 18 177 314 314 313
Rehabilitation
cost 3 3 3 3 3
Total 21 182 317 512 317
Table A1.222 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Chad
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 2.3 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D
Investment
cost 0.2 % 2.1 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Total 0.3 % 2.1 % 3.7 % 6.0 % 3.9 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Republic of Congo (Br.)
Table A1.223 Overview: Congo (Br.) 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 5.6 4.7 4.4 0.0 5.2
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -5.6 -4.7 -4.4 0.0 -5.2
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
129 129 129 148 129
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
1,318 1,540 1,689 2,381 1,220
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
639 539 498 0 593
Target Access Rate 22 % 33 % 53 % 53 % 53 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
100 % 100 % 100 % 85 % 100 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 0 % 0 % 15 % 0 %
Table A1.224 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Congo (Br.)
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
Imboulou 100 200
Sounda II 160 230
Dijoue ext. 15 58
Gamomba 14 not available
Mpe 20 not available
Nambili 28 not available
Kouembali 150 not available
Kouli 180 not available
Chollet 600 not available
Sounda III 750 not available
Trade
stagnation Same
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.225 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Congo (Br.)
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
301 351 385 528 278
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 301 351 385 460 278
Other 0 0 0 68 0
Rehabilitation
cost
7 7 7 7 7
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 7 7 7 7 7
Other 0 0 0 1 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 24 28 31 175 23
New capacity 20 24 29 171 19
Installed
capacity
4 4 2 4 4
T&D
Investment
cost
32 35 46 31 47
Cross-border
grid
20 17 15 0 18
Distribution
grid
9 9 9 9 6
Urban
connection
4 10 22 22 22
Rural
connection
0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
13 13 13 13 13
Total Capital cost 339 394 438 566 332
Investment
Cost
332 387 431 559 325
Rehabilitation
cost
7 7 7 7 7
Variable cost 37 41 43 188 36
TOTAL 376 434 482 754 367
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.226 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Congo (Br.)
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 3.0 % 3.5 % 3.9 % 5.3 % 3.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 3.0 % 3.5 % 3.9 % 4.6 % 3.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.7 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 1.8 % 0.3 %
New capacity 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 1.7 % 0.2 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.3 % 0.5 %
Cross-border
grid 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.0 % 0.2 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Total Capital cost 3.4 % 3.9 % 4.4 % 5.7 % 3.7 %
Investment
cost 3.3 % 3.9 % 4.3 % 5.6 % 3.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 1.9 % 0.4 %
Total 3.8 % 4.4 % 4.8 % 7.6 % 4.1 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
161
Table A1.227 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Congo (Br.)
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 2,339 2,734 2,998 3,980 2,166
Rehabilitation
cost 39 39 39 42 39
T&D
Investment
cost 256 285 370 247 376
Rehabilitation
cost 0 0 0 0 0
Total 2,634 3,057 3,407 4,269 2,581
Table A1.228 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Congo (Br.)
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 23.5 % 27.4 % 30.1 % 39.9 % 24.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
T&D
Investment
cost 2.6 % 2.9 % 3.7 % 2.5 % 4.2 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Total 26.4 % 30.7 % 34.2 % 42.8 % 28.7 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Equatorial Guinea
Table A1.229 Overview: Equatorial Guinea 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
10 10 10 10 10
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 0 0 28 0
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
12 16 20 0 19
Target Access Rate 11 % 22 % 35 % 35 % 35 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
0 % 0 % 0 % 73 % 0 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 100 % 100 % 100 % 27 % 100 %
Other 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Table A1.230 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Equatorial Guinea
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion No new projects - - -
Trade
stagnation
Name unknown 120 275
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.231 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Equatorial Guinea
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 0 0 8 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 8 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 0 0 0 0 0
New capacity 0 0 0 0 0
Installed
capacity
0 0 0 0 0
T&D
Investment
cost
1 2 3 2 2
Cross-border
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Urban
connection
0 1 2 2 2
Rural
connection
0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
0 0 0 0 0
Total Capital cost 1 2 3 11 3
Investment
Cost
1 2 3 11 2
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost 0 0 0 1 0
TOTAL 1 2 3 12 3
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.232 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Equatorial Guinea
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Total Capital cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Total 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.233 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Equatorial Guinea
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0 0 0 65 0
Rehabilitation
cost 0 0 0 0 0
T&D
Investment
cost 5 12 20 20 19
Rehabilitation
cost 2 2 2 2 2
Total 7 14 23 86 22
Table A1.234 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Equatorial Guinea
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Total 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.7 % 0.2 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Gabon
Table A1.235 Overview: Gabon 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.9
Exports (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net exports (TWh) -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -0.9
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
163 163 163 297 163
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
84 90 92 92 85
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
117 115 111 0 103
Target Access Rate 82 % 92 % 91 % 91 % 91 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
100 % 100 % 99 % 65 % 99 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 0 % 0 % 1 % 35 % 1 %
Table A1.236 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Gabon
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
Two projects (names
unknown)
90 not available
Trade
stagnation
Same
* Plus mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.237 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Gabon
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
19 20 21 21 19
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 19 20 20 20 18
Other 0 0 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost
9 9 9 12 9
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 9 9 9 9 9
Other 0 0 0 4 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 5 5 5 56 5
New capacity 0 0 0 0 0
Installed
capacity
5 5 5 56 5
T&D
Investment
cost
9 12 15 13 14
Cross-border
grid
2 2 2 0 2
Distribution
grid
3 3 3 3 2
Urban
connection
3 5 3 3 3
Rural
connection
0 2 6 6 6
Rehabilitation
cost
5 5 5 5 5
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
8 8 8 8 8
Total Capital cost 41 46 49 51 47
Investment
Cost
27 32 36 34 33
Rehabilitation
cost
13 13 13 17 13
Variable cost 13 13 13 64 13
TOTAL 54 59 62 115 59
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Table A1.238 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Gabon
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
44%
regional
average
access rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.0 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.5 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Total Capital cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Investment
cost 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.5 % 0.1 %
Total 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 1.0 % 0.5 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.239 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Gabon
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 144 155 161 161 149
Rehabilitation
cost 49 49 49 71 49
T&D
Investment
cost 72 99 121 103 113
Rehabilitation
cost 38 38 38 38 38
Total 303 341 368 373 349
Table A1.240 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Gabon
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
44% regional
average access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 1.2 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.4 %
T&D
Investment
cost 0.6 % 0.8 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 1.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total 2.5 % 2.9 % 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.1 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Islands States
Cape Verde
Table A1.241 Overview: Cape Verde 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Net exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
1 1 1 1 1
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
14 15 18 18 15
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Target Access Rate 55 % 62 % 84 % 84 % 84 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Coal 5 % 5 % 4 % 4 % 5 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 95 % 95 % 96 % 96 % 95 %
Table A1.242 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Cape Verde
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
No new
projects* - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.243 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Cape Verde
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
3 3 4 4 3
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 3 3 4 4 3
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 10 11 13 13 11
New capacity 10 11 13 13 11
Installed
capacity
0 0 0 0 0
T&D
Investment
cost
1 2 5 5 5
Cross-border
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
1 1 1 1 1
Urban
connection
0 1 1 1 1
Rural
connection
0 1 3 3 3
Rehabilitation
cost
1 1 1 1 1
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
1 1 1 1 1
Total Capital cost 5 6 9 9 8
Investment
Cost
4 5 9 9 8
Rehabilitation
cost
1 1 1 1 1
Variable cost 11 12 15 15 12
TOTAL 16 18 24 24 21
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.244 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Cape Verde
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 %
New capacity 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Total Capital cost 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 %
Investment
cost 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 %
Total 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
173
Table A1.245 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Cape Verde
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 15 17 21 21 18
Rehabilitation
cost 0 0 0 0 0
T&D
Investment
cost 11 19 42 42 38
Rehabilitation
cost 6 6 6 6 6
Total 32 41 69 69 61
Table A1.246 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Cape Verde
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.3 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D
Investment
cost 0.7 % 1.1 % 2.5 % 2.5 % 2.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 %
Total 1.9 % 2.5 % 4.1 % 4.1 % 4.5 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Madagascar
Table A1.247 Overview: Madagascar 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Net exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
87 87 87 87 87
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
82 82 82 82 82
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
175 354 349 349 338
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Target Access Rate 18 % 36 % 36 % 36 % 36 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
24 % 16 % 16 % 16 % 16 %
Coal 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 76 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 %
Table A1.248 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Madagascar
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
No new
projects* - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.249 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Madagascar
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
33 70 70 70 68
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 33 70 70 70 68
Rehabilitation
cost
4 4 4 4 4
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 4 4 4 4 4
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 142 266 261 261 253
New capacity 141 265 260 260 251
Installed
capacity
1 1 1 1 1
T&D
Investment
cost
25 129 135 135 134
Cross-border
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
2 2 2 2 2
Urban
connection
14 53 51 51 51
Rural
connection
9 74 82 82 82
Rehabilitation
cost
2 2 2 2 2
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
6 6 6 6 6
Total Capital cost 64 206 211 211 208
Investment
Cost
58 200 205 205 202
Rehabilitation
cost
6 6 6 6 6
Variable cost 148 272 267 267 258
TOTAL 212 477 478 478 466
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.250 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Madagascar
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.5 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.5 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 2.0 % 3.7 % 3.6 % 3.6 % 3.7 %
New capacity 1.9 % 3.7 % 3.6 % 3.6 % 3.7 %
Existing
capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D Investment cost 0.3 % 1.8 % 1.9 % 1.9 % 2.0 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Urban
connection 0.2 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.7 %
Rural
connection 0.1 % 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.2 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Total Capital cost 0.9 % 2.8 % 2.9 % 2.9 % 3.0 %
Investment
cost 0.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 3.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 2.0 % 3.8 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.8 %
Total 2.9 % 6.6 % 6.6 % 6.6 % 6.8 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.251 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Madagascar
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 197 424 423 423 410
Rehabilitation
cost 25 25 25 25 25
T&D
Investment
cost 198 1,041 1,086 1,086 1,082
Rehabilitation
cost 13 13 13 13 13
Total 432 1,503 1,546 1,546 1,530
Table A1.252 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Madagascar
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 2.7 % 5.9 % 5.8 % 5.8 % 6.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.4 %
T&D
Investment
cost 2.7 % 14.4 % 15.0 % 15.0 % 15.8 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Total 6.0 % 20.8 % 21.4 % 21.4 % 22.3 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Mauritius
Table A1.253 Overview: Mauritius 2015
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Imports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Net exports (TWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity - installed
(MW)
195 195 195 195 195
Generation capacity -
refurbishment (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Generation capacity - new
investments (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
New cross-border
transmission (MW)
0 0 0 0 0
Target Access Rate 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
Generation capacity
mix (%): Hydro
30 % 30 % 30 % 30 % 30 %
Coal 60 % 60 % 60 % 60 % 60 %
Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Other 9 % 9 % 9 % 9 % 9 %
Table A1.254 Possible Hydropower Expansion: Mauritius
Scenario Project*
Planned capacity
(MW)
Lead time
(years)
Cost estimate
(Mill. USD)
Trade
expansion
No new
projects* - - -
Trade
stagnation
No new
projects* - - -
* Only mini-hydro in rural node
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.255 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mauritius
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Rehabilitation
cost
0 0 0 0 0
Thermal 0 0 0 0 0
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Variable cost (fuel, O&M) 8 8 8 8 6
New capacity 0 0 0 0 0
Installed
capacity
8 8 8 8 6
T&D
Investment
cost
16 16 16 16 11
Cross-border
grid
0 0 0 0 0
Distribution
grid
13 13 13 13 8
Urban
connection
1 1 1 1 1
Rural
connection
2 2 2 2 2
Rehabilitation
cost
9 9 9 9 9
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
21 21 21 21 21
Total Capital cost 25 25 25 25 19
Investment
Cost
16 16 16 16 11
Rehabilitation
cost
9 9 9 9 9
Variable cost 29 29 29 29 28
TOTAL 54 54 54 54 47
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.256 Annualized costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mauritius
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Thermal 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Hydro 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Other 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M) 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
New capacity 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Existing
capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
T&D Investment cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 %
Cross-border
grid 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Distribution
grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Urban
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rural
connection 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost
(existing capacity) 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Total Capital cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.2 %
Investment
cost 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
Total 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Table A1.257 Investment costs of capacity expansion (M$) – Mauritius
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 1 1 1 1 1
Rehabilitation
cost 0 0 0 0 0
T&D
Investment
cost 128 128 128 128 85
Rehabilitation
cost 69 69 69 69 69
Total 198 198 198 198 154
Table A1.258 Investment costs of capacity expansion (% of GDP in 2015) – Mauritius
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation
Investment
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
T&D
Investment
cost 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.1 %
Rehabilitation
cost 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.8 % 0.9 %
Total 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.2 % 1.9 %
COSTING POWER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA—ANNEX 1
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Regional totals for the island states
Table A1.259 Investment needs and generation mix in the island states after ten years (2005-2015)
Trade expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current
access rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation capacity (in
MW)
- Installed 282 282 282 282 282
- Refurbishment 83 83 83 83 83
- New investments 189 369 368 368 353
Generation capacity
mix (%):
- Hydro 25 % 19 % 19 % 19 % 20 %
- Coal 21 % 16 % 16 % 16 % 16 %
- Gas 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
- Other 53 % 65 % 65 % 65 % 64 %
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Table A1.260 Overnight investment costs in the island states over the next ten years (M$)
Trade
expansion
Trade
stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate
35% access
rate
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates
National
targets for
access rates,
trade
expansion
Generation Investment cost 213 442 445 445 428
Rehabilitation
cost 25 25 25 25 25
T&D Investment cost 337 1,188 1,256 1,256 1,205
- Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0
- Distribution
grid
130 130 130 130 79
- Urban
connection
119 440 428 428 428
- Rural
connection
88 618 697 697 697
Refurbishement
cost 87 87 87 87 87
Total 762 2,463 2,599 2,599 2,497
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Table A1.261 Annualized investment costs of system expansion in the island states (M$)
Trade expansion Trade stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate 35% access rate
National targets
for access rates
National targets
for access rates
National targets
for access rates,
trade expansion
Generation
Investment cost 36 73 74 74 71
Refurbishment cost 4 4 4 4 4
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M)
160 285 283 283 270
- New capacity 151 276 273 273 262
- Existing capacity 9 9 9 9 8
T&D and connection
Investment cost 42 148 156 156 150
- Cross-border 0 0 0 0 0
- Distribution grid 16 16 16 16 10
- Urban connection 15 55 53 53 53
- Rural connection 11 77 87 87 87
Refurbishment cost 11 11 11 11 11
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
28 28 28 28 28
Total
Capital cost 93 236 245 245 236
- Investment cost 78 221 230 230 220
- Refurbishment cost 15 15 15 15 15
Variable cost 188 313 311 311 298
TOTAL 282 549 556 556 534
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Table A1.262 Annualized costs as a share of GDP in 2015 in the island states
Trade expansion Trade stagnation Low growth
Current access
rate 35% access rate
National targets
for access rates
National targets
for access rates
National targets
for access rates,
trade expansion
Generation
Investment cost 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.4 %
Refurbishment cost 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Variable cost (fuel,
O&M)
0.9 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.7 %
- New capacity 0.8 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 %
- Existing capacity 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 %
T&D and connection
Investment cost 0.2 % 0.8 % 0.9 % 0.9 % 0.9 %
- Cross-border 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
- Distribution grid 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
- Urban connection 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %
- Rural connection 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.5 %
Refurbishment cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost (existing
capacity)
0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 %
Total
Capital cost 0.5 % 1.3 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 %
- Investment cost 0.4 % 1.2 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.4 %
- Refurbishment cost 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Variable cost 1.0 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.8 %
TOTAL 1.6 % 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.3 %
Table A1.263 Long-run marginal costs in the island states ($ per MWh)
Cost of generation
Cost of domestic
transmission and
distribution
Total long-run
marginal costs
Cape Verde 141 50 191
Madagascar 141 1 142
Mauritius 25 153 178
Average 139 126 265
Note: Average is weighted by annualized cost.