Power2SimFundamental Energy Market Model

Short computing timesPower2Sim‘s technical characteristics, its modular structure and the simple operation handling enable you to calculate many scenarios in a short period of time and to compare the effects of modified assumptions in a fast and traceable manner.

Data security and transparencyPower2Sim runs as independent software on your com-puters and uses Microsoft Excel as interface. Your data remains on your internal computers and servers. Thus, a high degree of data security is guaranteed.

All underlying model assumptions and settings are transparently accessible and modifiable. This enables you to completely understand the modelling process.

CustomizationYou can customize the user interface individually according to your requirements and use. Scenario specifications can easily be integrated by simple modifications of support points. A macro-interface enables you to develop and integrate your own models.

Easy usage and supportThe intuitive user interface allows you to familiarize yourself quickly with the software and guarantees a fast and simple handling. The model can be automated in order to minimize staffing resources.

We provide workshops and trainings to explain func-tionality according to your requirements in individual scenarios. Comprehensive support is provided during the whole licence term.

”We use Power2Sim because its short computing times, simple handling and reasonable processing of data convinced us. On this basis, we are able to model different scenarios cost-efficiently and derive evaluations relevant to us for our projects all over Europe.“

Dr Armin Sandhövel ● CIO Infrastructure Equity ● AllianzGI Europe GmbH

OPERATION AND USAGEPower2Sim has established itself successfully on the market for many years. The versatile range of applications can be customized individually according to your requirements, such as: ▪ Evaluation of corporate strategies ▪ Short-term forecasts down to the hour for trading purposes ▪ Contract and asset valuations ▪ Investment planning ▪ Cost and revenue planning ▪ Power plant scheduling and optimization ▪ Analysis of the main influential factors for electricity prices and the influences of the injection of renewable energies

SELECTED REFERENCES

POWER2SIMFUNDAMENTAL ENERGY MARKET MODEL FOR THE SIMULATION OF ELECTRICITY PRICESPower2Sim is a software for the simulation of hourly electricity prices until the year 2050 for all countries of the European Union, Norway and Switzerland . The individual and intuitive user interface provides the ideal starting point for the efficient analysis of future developments of electricity prices. Energy Brainpool’s long-term experience in the field of analysis and consultancy for the energy industry, politics and technology contributes to the constant update and improvement of Power2Sim.

OUR ADVANTAGE – YOUR BENEFIT

Global Investors

Price

Demand

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STRUCTURE & FUNCTIONALITYPower2Sim is a modular fundamental model. Based on individual requirements, the electricity price model can be complemented by independent sub-models. These sub- models ensure that historical fundamental data can be reasonably projected into the future.

Power2Sim uses an underlying reference scenario, based on public fundamental data and future trends.

In addition, Energy Brainpool‘s market know-how, acquired by continuous development and improvement, as well as current market trends enhance the model.

All input parameters in Power2Sim can be easily adjusted in order to set up individual scenarios according to your requirements and ideas.

▪ Hourly Europe-wide forecasts

▪ Secure data processing by means of soft-ware installation

▪ Integration of individual assumptions and/or your own portfolio

▪ Transparency of underlying data

▪ Automation of frequent computing proces-ses

▪ Integration of a standard scenario

▪ Comprehensive set of historical data

▪ Daily data feed

▪ Software updates in analogy to market developments and trends

Power2Sim maps the energy-only market by calculating the electricity price according to the merit-order principle.

Essential factors within this context are the marginal costs of electricity generation. Thereby the cost for the most expensive power station that is still needed to cover the demand determines the price for each individual hour.

Marginal costs are determined by the relevant fuel costs,

CO2 certificate costs, if applicable, as well as the efficiency of the specific power plant.

Besides short-term costs, modified operation and transport costs for fuels may result in modifications of the cost structure. The sub-model “ramping costs“ also considers surcharges and specific power plant restrictions.

Electricity price model (merit-order model)

Load modelHourly demand curve

Individual user interface

Schematic structure Power2Sim

CommoditiesFuels, CO2 certificates, exchange rates

Power plantsEuropean Directory of Conventional Power Plants

Results

▪ Individual analysis of elec-tricity prices until 2050

▪ Residual load

▪ Import and export

▪ Power plant scheduling

▪ Merit-order

▪ Emissions

▪ Standard scenarios

Use (examples) ▪ Evaluation of corporate

strategies

▪ Investment planning

▪ Cost and revenue planning

▪ Power plant scheduling and optimization

▪ Short-term forecasts for use in trading

▪ Analysis of the influences of renewable energies

ELECTRICITY PRICE MODEL (MERIT-ORDER MODEL)

Import/export modelBorder crossings and capacities (NTC)

Renewable energiesMeteo-pattern model and reservoir model

Ramping costsPower plant specific restrictions and price charges

CO2

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EUROPEAN POWER PLANT DIRECTORYCore of the conventional power park fleet in Power2Sim is the European Power Plant Directory – a comprehensive database of more than 3,300 conven¬tional power plants all over Europe.

Power plants are listed separately according to the energy sources lignite, hard coal, crude oil, natural gas and uranium. The directory provides, among other aspects, information on the generation capacity, efficiency and commissioning.

LOAD MODEL The load model calculates the electricity demand over the entire forecast horizon down to the hour based on scenario specifications.

Therefore the load model uses country-specific sensitivities for temperature, weekdays, public holidays, etc., which have been derived from historical load data.

IMPORT/EXPORT MODELThe import/export model is an extension of the merit- order model for the calculation of cross-border flows between European states.

Taking into consideration the specifications for cross- border lines and their capacities, Power2Sim calculates the optimal utilization of individual lines and thus the influence of import and export of electricity on national electricity prices.

RENEWABLE ENERGIESAbove all, electricity generation from renewable energies is determined by the availability of the energy source. This simulation is done via model approaches that consider the particularities of the individual energy sources.

Stochastic profiles for the future are determined for wind and solar feed. Generation from water power is divided into run-of-the-river, reservoir and pump storage plants. Other renewable energies such as biomass and geothermal energy are considered in sum.

For all renewable energy sources, the user specifies electricity production and installed capacity in Power2Sim. From these specifications, specific hourly generation curves are generated.

Modelled electricity generation by energy source (source: Power2Sim)

Historical (red) and modelled (blue) load (source: Power2Sim)

Cross-border import and export of electricity from Germany into Switzerland (source: Power2Sim)

Modelled generation from wind and water power (source: Power2Sim)

POW

ER2SIM

INTER

FACE

Simple m

odel operationFast evaluation of results

Assigning “setpoints” and values via m

ouse click

Direct com

parison of model results

and historical dataIndividual interfaces w

ith personalized charts

Variable time axis: D

isplay of hourly up to annual values

Tel.: +49 (30) 76 76 54 - 10Fax: +49 (30) 76 76 54 - 20kontakt@energybrainpool.comwww.energybrainpool.com

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