POWER SHIFT: QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS Professor Michael Cox. LSE IDEAS •1. WHY IS THE QUESTION IMPORTANT?•2. WHY DOES POWER SHIFT?•3. POWER SHIFTS IN THE C20TH•4. IS POWER SHIFTING AGAIN?

1. WHY IS THE QUESTION IMPORTANT?

•1. . POWER SHIFTS FAVOUR SOME POWERS AND NOT OTHERS •2. POWER SHIFTS CAUSE DISTURBANCE IN THE WORLD. •3. VERY FEW POWER SHIFTS HAVE BEEN PEACEFUL

2. WHY DOES POWER SHIFT?

•1. GEOGRAPHICAL FACTORS; SIZE AND POPULATION•2. CONQUEST OF OTHER TERRITORIES: EMPIRES•3. DEFEAT OR VICTORY IN WAR•4. ECONOMIC PROGRESS OR REGRESSION

3. POWER SHIFTS IN THE 20TH CENTURY

•1. SHIFT OF POWER FROM EUROPE TO USA•2. DEFEAT OF GERMANY AND JAPAN AS REVISIONIST POWERS•3. RISE OF THE USA AND USSR = COLD WAR•4. END OF COLD WAR AND COLLAPSE OF USSR = UNIPOLAR MOMENT

4. IS POWER SHIFTING AGAIN?

•YES: THE END OF THE WEST AND THE RISE OF THE REST; RISE OF THE BRICS; A NEW ASIAN CENTURY; WHEN CHINA RULES THE WORLD; US DECLINE AND EUROPE’S WOES.

•NO: STRUCTURAL POWER OF THE WEST REMAINS; WEST WRITES THE RULES; THE REST RELIES ON THE WEST; USA STILL MASSIVELY POWERFUL; EUROPE STRUCTURALLY STRONG.