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Potential Impacts of Hurricane Flooding in the National Capital Region: What if Hurricane Sandy Made Landfall in the Chesapeake Bay? Amelia Martin 1 , Celso Ferreira 2 1 Undergraduate Civil Engineering, George Mason University ([email protected]); 2 Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering, George Mason University ([email protected]) H-03 INTRODUCTION CONCLUSIONS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS RESULTS METHODOLOGY •Hypothetical Hurricane Sandy Inundation Building Damage Impacts • % Damage On Residential Buildings • On Government Points of Interest •This poster presents preliminary results of an undergraduate research project investigating possible flooding impacts on Washington, D.C. as part of the Undergraduate Research Scholars Program (URSP). • Sea level rise puts DC at increased risk for flooding (Baecher et al. 2012) •$50 billion in damage caused by Hurricane Sandy (Blake et al. 2013) exposed the lack of research done on storm surge flooding in DC. • The Federal Triangle experienced 200-yr flooding in 2006. •Failure to asses risks to federal facilities would be seen internationally as a gross oversight (Baecher et al. 2012). •HAZUS-MH, developed by the Federal Emergency Management Administration, can estimate % damage and economic loss. •Inundation Maps •Infrastructure Inventory • Digital Elevation Model National Elevation Dataset (USGS) • 1 arc second (30 meter) resolution •Constant Inundation Maps ArcMap (Spatial Analyst Tools) • 1m, 2m, 3m, 4m constant rasters •Water Depth Grid Grid = [Constant] – [DEM] (ArcMap Spatial) Economic Impacts •General Building Stock • Default HAZUS-MH Inventory • HAZUS-MH Damage Functions •Government Points of Interest • DC Atlas All-in-One • 31 Department and Embassy Facilities • DC GIS Real Property Tool •Total Economic Loss This research is supported by the George Mason University Undergraduate Research Scholars Program. Research will continue and will be funded through Fall 2013. •While no government buildings would be damaged in a storm similar to Hurricane Sandy, the joint military base Anacostia-Bolling would be at risk for damage. •Specific analysis of levees at Anacostia-Bolling should be conducted to determine if military housing is at risk of flooding. •Further research will focus on gathering more site-specific information for government points of interest. •Government facilities would benefit from evaluating flood risks to continue normal operations in the case of flooding. •Continued research on drainage to the Federal Triangle will asses the risk of damage to priceless national artifacts and important government offices. Washington, D.C. DEM Water Depth Grid (1m Constant Raster) Hurricane Sandy Modified Storm Track Hurricane Storm Surge Numerical Model Government Points of Interest Baecher, G.., Galloway, G.E., Link, L.E. & Brubaker, K.L. (2012) Flood threat to the US national capital region. Flood Risk Management: Science, Policy and Practice: Closing the Gap pp. 212 -213. CRC Press. Blake, E.S., Kimberlain, T.B., Berg, R.J., Cangialosi, J.P. & Beven II, J.L. (2013) Hurricane Sandy. National Hurricane Center. (Images) National Capital Planning Commission, DC Department of the Environment, DC Office of Planning, DC Water and Sewer, Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. General Services Administration, and Smithsonian Institution. Federal Triangle Stormwater Drainage Study. Rep. N.p., 6 Oct. 2011. Referenc es: Total Economic Loss from Sandy Scenario estimated at $47 million. • Government Economic Loss Constitution Ave, June 2006 Department of Justice, June 2006 • Hurricane Wind and Pressure Asymmetric parameterized model based on modified (shifted ) best track data for Hurricane Sandy •Hydrodynamic Modeling Storm surge simulated using ADCIRC model (2D-depth integrated version) •Flood Mapping Model results converted to NAVD88 and interpolated based on DEM. 1M Inundation 2M Inundation 3M Inundation 4M Inundation Impacts from Hurricane Sandy Scenario • HAZUS-MH (GOV1) Damage Functions used to estimate facility damage • No facility damage occurs for Sandy Scenario • 4M Inundation damages four Government Points of Interest Total Economic Loss = Building Loss + Contents Loss + Inventory Loss + Relocation Loss + Capital Related Loss + Wages Losses + Rental Income Loss Government Economic Loss = Building Loss + Content Loss

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Page 1: Potential Impacts of Hurricane Flooding in the National Capital Region: What if Hurricane Sandy Made Landfall in the Chesapeake Bay? Amelia Martin 1, Celso

Potential Impacts of Hurricane Flooding in the National Capital Region: What if Hurricane Sandy Made Landfall in the Chesapeake Bay?

Amelia Martin1, Celso Ferreira2

1Undergraduate Civil Engineering, George Mason University ([email protected]); 2Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering, George Mason University ([email protected])

H-03

INTRODUCTION

CONCLUSIONS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

RESULTS

METHODOLOGY

• Hypothetical Hurricane Sandy Inundation

Building Damage Impacts

• % Damage On Residential Buildings

• On Government Points of Interest

•This poster presents preliminary results of an undergraduate research project investigating possible flooding impacts on Washington, D.C. as part of the Undergraduate Research Scholars Program (URSP).

• Sea level rise puts DC at increased risk for flooding (Baecher et al. 2012)

•$50 billion in damage caused by Hurricane Sandy (Blake et al. 2013) exposed the lack of research done on storm surge flooding in DC.

• The Federal Triangle experienced 200-yr flooding in 2006.

•Failure to asses risks to federal facilities would be seen internationally as a gross oversight (Baecher et al. 2012).

•HAZUS-MH, developed by the Federal Emergency Management Administration, can estimate % damage and economic loss.

• Inundation Maps

• Infrastructure Inventory

• Digital Elevation ModelNational Elevation Dataset (USGS)• 1 arc second (30 meter) resolution

•Constant Inundation MapsArcMap (Spatial Analyst Tools)• 1m, 2m, 3m, 4m constant rasters

•Water Depth GridGrid = [Constant] – [DEM] (ArcMap Spatial)

Economic Impacts

•General Building Stock• Default HAZUS-MH Inventory• HAZUS-MH Damage Functions

•Government Points of Interest• DC Atlas All-in-One• 31 Department and Embassy Facilities• DC GIS Real Property Tool

•Total Economic Loss

This research is supported by the George Mason University Undergraduate Research Scholars Program. Research will continue and will be funded through Fall 2013.

•While no government buildings would be damaged in a storm similar to Hurricane Sandy, the joint military base Anacostia-Bolling would be at risk for damage.•Specific analysis of levees at Anacostia-Bolling should be conducted to determine if military housing is at risk of flooding.•Further research will focus on gathering more site-specific information for government points of interest.•Government facilities would benefit from evaluating flood risks to continue normal operations in the case of flooding.

•Continued research on drainage to the Federal Triangle will asses the risk of damage to priceless national artifacts and important government offices.

Washington, D.C. DEMWater Depth Grid

(1m Constant Raster)

Hurricane Sandy Modified Storm Track

Hurricane Storm Surge Numerical Model

Government Points of Interest

Baecher, G.., Galloway, G.E., Link, L.E. & Brubaker, K.L. (2012) Flood threat to the US national capital region. Flood Risk Management: Science, Policy and Practice: Closing the Gap pp. 212 -213. CRC Press.Blake, E.S., Kimberlain, T.B., Berg, R.J., Cangialosi, J.P. & Beven II, J.L. (2013) Hurricane Sandy. National Hurricane Center.(Images) National Capital Planning Commission, DC Department of the Environment, DC Office of Planning, DC Water and Sewer, Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. General Services Administration, and Smithsonian Institution. Federal Triangle Stormwater Drainage Study. Rep. N.p., 6 Oct. 2011.

References:

Total Economic Loss from Sandy Scenario estimated at $47 million.

• Government Economic Loss

Constitution Ave, June 2006

Department of Justice, June 2006

• Hurricane Wind and PressureAsymmetric parameterized model based on modified (shifted ) best track data for Hurricane Sandy

•Hydrodynamic ModelingStorm surge simulated using ADCIRC model (2D-depth integrated version)

•Flood MappingModel results converted to NAVD88 and interpolated based on DEM.

1M Inundation 2M Inundation

3M Inundation 4M Inundation

Impacts from Hurricane Sandy Scenario

• HAZUS-MH (GOV1) Damage Functions used to estimate facility damage

• No facility damage occurs for Sandy Scenario

• 4M Inundation damages four Government Points of Interest

Total Economic Loss = Building Loss + Contents Loss + Inventory Loss + Relocation Loss + Capital Related Loss +

Wages Losses + Rental Income Loss

Government Economic Loss = Building Loss + Content Loss

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