PRESENTED

BY

JACK ONYISI ABEBE

CDM/H/205/12

PhD IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

Document analysis: various policy and research documents and reports on global warming, climate change, water and energy use were analysed.

Organisation of this paper: Section 1:- a discussion of global warming

and causes Section 2:- a discussion of sea level rise

and its interaction with climate change; Section 3: Impacts of climate change on

energy use Section 4: Impacts of climate change on

water use

Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th century and its projected continuation.

Since the early 20th century, Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980.

Warming is believed to be caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.

The effects of an increase in global temperature include a rise in sea levels and a change in the amount and pattern of precipitation, as well a probable expansion of subtropical deserts.

Other likely effects of the warming include a more frequent occurrence of extreme-weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall, ocean acidification and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes.

Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the loss of habitat from inundation.

The climate system can respond to changes in external forcing. External forcing can "push" the climate in the direction of warming or cooling.

Examples of external forcings include ;

changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., increased concentrations of greenhouse gases),

solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around

the Sun

Natural Causes-of methane gas from arctic tundra and wetlands. Methane is a greenhouse gas. A greenhouse gas is a gas that traps heat in the earth's atmosphere.

The Greenhouse Effect- keeps the earth warm

Water Vapor- through positive feedback loop

Man-made Causes-Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Include such things like burning of fossil fuels

Population- More people means more food, and more methods of transportation, right? That means more methane because there will be more burning of fossil fuels, and more agriculture.

Since CO2 contributes to global warming, the increase in population makes the problem worse because we breathe out CO2.

Sea levels around the world are rising. Current sea-level rise potentially affects human populations (e.g., those living in coastal regions and on islands) and the natural environment (e.g., marine ecosystems).

Between 1870 and 2004, global average sea levels rose 195 mm (7.7 in).

From 1950 to 2009, measurements show an average annual rise in sea level of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year, with satellite data showing a rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year from 1993 to 2009, a faster rate of increase than previously estimated.

It is unclear whether the increased rate reflects an increase in the underlying long-term trend.

The first is thermal expansion: as ocean water warms, it expands.

The second is from the contribution of land-based ice due to increased melting. The major store of water on land is found in glaciers and ice sheets.

Sea level rise is one of several lines of evidence that support the view that the climate has recently warmed.

It is very likely that human-induced (anthropogenic) warming contributed to the sea level rise observed in the latter half of the 20th century.

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that during the 21st century, sea level will rise another 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23 in), but these numbers do not include "uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedbacks nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow".

On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the melting of ice sheets could result in even higher sea level rise. Partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, could contribute 4 to 6 m (13 to 20 ft) or more to sea level rise.

Various factors affect the volume or mass of the ocean, leading to long-term changes in eustatic sea level.

Include Temperature And the mass of water locked up

on land and sea as fresh water in rivers, lakes, glaciers, polar ice caps, and sea ice.

After the last ice age, the rapid melting of glaciers rapidly raised sea level.

The warming of the atmosphere caused by increases in greenhouse gases is melting glaciers and causing ocean water to warm and expand thermally. Both effects increase the volume of the ocean, raising its surface level.

Linked to three things Thermal expansion: When water

heats up, it expands. About half of the past century's rise in sea level is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.

Melting of glaciers and polar ice caps-Large ice formations, like glaciers and the polar ice caps, naturally melt back a bit each summer.

Ice loss from Greenland and West Antarctica- higher sea temperatures are causing the massive ice shelves that extend out from Antarctica to melt from below, weaken, and break off.

May include; increased coastal erosion, higher storm-surge flooding, inhibition of primary production

processes, more extensive coastal inundation, changes in surface water quality and

groundwater characteristics, increased loss of property and

coastal habitats, increased flood risk and potential loss

of life,

May include; loss of non-monetary cultural

resources and values, impacts on agriculture and

aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality, and loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions.

The energy sector is vulnerable to the effects of climate change in several ways, as many different aspects of the energy industry are directly affected by environmental and climatic conditions.

The effects include; Seasonal and daily temperatures and

precipitation changes affect the timing of peak electricity demands and the size of these peaks;

Extended periods of drought lead to reduced water availability for hydropower generation;

Changes in temperature and precipitation affect water availability for cooling power generators;

Changes in cloud cover, temperature and pressure patterns directly affect wind and solar resources (affecting resource availability or productivity);

Increased intensity and frequency of severe weather events impact design and safety requirements of future energy infrastructure and other capital investments;

Increased occurrence of blackouts may be observed as a result of higher electricity demand for cooling and refrigeration caused by higher temperatures.

Changes in precipitation cycles due to climate change can alter river flow patterns, resulting in longer periods of drought, thus causing water levels to decrease and affecting hydroelectric generation capacity.

Another potential consequence of altered river flow patterns is the increased incidence of elevated flow rates and flooding that exceed the safety margins of existing hydro plants.

On the other hand, increased flow rates, if timed and managed correctly, may result in increased hydropower generation.

Biofuels are among the most promising types of biomass energy systems in place

For example, temperatures are linked with the real evapo-transpiration of sugarcane plants in semi-arid conditions (Fonseca, J. 1984), (Carrera, Luis, A.; R.1995), therefore, an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall will cause increased evapo-traspiration, resulting in lower production of sugarcane and thus lower bio-fuel production.

Wind energy is not affected by shifting water supplies as opposed to fossil-fuel based power systems or other alternative energy systems.

Nevertheless projected climate change impacts are likely to have significant positive or negative impacts on wind energy generation given that it depends strongly on climatic and environmental conditions at a particular site.

Wind is caused by the uneven heating of the earth’s surface by the sun.

In order to ensure the sustainability of future wind energy projects, the identification of locations where deep changes in global atmospheric circulation are expected is critical.

Shifting air temperatures can affect geothermal energy production in the same manner they affect the efficiency of fossil-fuel turbines.

Both energy generation processes are based on the use of steam cycles, where the difference between ambient and combustion temperature have an impact on the overall efficiency of the boiler or turbine.

Hydrologic changes driven by climate change undoubtedly impact geothermal energy production.

Changes in water availability will depend on changes in the volume, variability, and seasonality of runoff, as modified by the operation of existing water control infrastructure and investments in new infrastructure.

Changes in water quality and temperature can also have substantial impacts on urban, industrial, and agricultural use values, as well as on aquatic ecosystems.

Changes in water quality and temperature can also have substantial impacts on urban, industrial, and agricultural use values, as well as on aquatic ecosystems.

For urban water uses, degraded water quality can add substantially to purification costs.

Increased precipitation intensity may periodically result in increased turbidity and increased nutrient and pathogen content

The water utility serving New York City has identified heavy precipitation events as one of its major climate-change-related concerns because such events can raise turbidity levels of surface water sources.

Sectoral water demands can be expected to change over time in response to changes in population, settlement patterns, wealth, industrial activity, and technology.

climate change will probably alter the desired uses of water (demands) as well as actual uses (demands in each sector that are actually met). If climate change results in greater water scarcity relative to demand, adaptation may include technical changes that improve water-use efficiency, demand management (e.g., through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights.

Of all ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems will have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction due to climate change (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005b).

In cold or snow-dominated river basins, atmospheric temperature increases do not only affect freshwater ecosystems via the warming of water but also by causing water-flow alterations.

Where river discharges decrease seasonally, negative impacts on both freshwater ecosystems and coastal marine ecosystems can be expected.

Climate change is likely to alter river discharge, resulting in important impacts on water availability for in-stream and out-of-stream uses.

In-stream uses include hydropower, navigation, fisheries, and recreation.

Out-of-stream uses include irrigation, domestic, municipal, and industrial withdrawals, including cooling water for thermal electricity generation.

Safe access to drinking water depends more on the level of technical water supply infrastructure than on the level of runoff.

However, the goal of improved safe access to drinking water will be harder to achieve in regions where runoff decreases as a result of climate change.

Also, climate change leads to additional costs for the water supply sector, e.g., due to changing water levels affecting water supply infrastructure, which might hamper the extension of water supply services to more people.

Audun Fidje and Thomas Martinsen, 2006. Effects of climate change on the utilization of solar cells in the Nordic region, European Conference on Impacts of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Sources Reykjavik, Iceland, June 5–9, 2006.

www.ife.no/departments/energy_systems/files/fidje2006/fss_download/Attachmentfile

Barnett TP et al. 2005. Potential Impacts of a warming climate over water availability in snow -dominated regions, Nature 438/17.

Bradley RS et al. 2006 Threats to Water Supply in the Tropical Andes. Science: 312.

Burgos, Francisco, 2007, Concept paper, Energy Security in the Americas; internal document DSD/OAS.

Carrera, Luis, A.; R.1995. Un modelo matemático para estimar la evapotranspiración de la caña de azúcar bajo condiciones cubanas. Caña de Azúcar (Venezuela) 13: 3-22.

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