potential effects of climate change on the columbia river basin: hydrology and water resources...
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Potential effects of climate change on the Columbia River Basin: Hydrology and
water resources
Dennis P. LettenmaierDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering
and Climate Impacts Group
University of Washington
UW School of Communications/Knight Foundation
Seminar for JournalistsJune 28 2002
JISAO Climate Impacts GroupJoint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Oceans
A regional perspective on a global problem
What is known? On a global basis, temperature has been increasing,
appears to be well out of the range of natural variability
Picture is less clear for hydrology Modeling is the basis for future projections
Models essentially all agree on direction of temperature change and regional coherence, less so on precipitation
Some consistency in direction of model predictions for precipitation change over land at intermediate to high latitudes
Source: IPCC 2001
Source: IPCC 2001
What is a climate model?
• Abstraction of the true climate (“average weather”) system, based on the laws of physics
• Typically a set of equations, solved numerically, over a (global) grid, for “climate time scales” (decades to centuries)
• In practice, so-called General Circulation Models (GCMs) are close cousins of numerical weather prediction models
Source: NRC 1975
Source: IPCC 2001
Source: IPCC 2001
Source: IPCC 2001
Interpreting the hydrologic implications
• Scale mismatch – the critical roadblock• Interpreting hydrologic consequences
requires a river basin perspective, GCM scale of degrees lat-long doesn’t resolve any but the very largest rivers
• Topographic effects on precipitation and temperature at poorly resolved by global GCMs
Topography as a constraint (or why the situation is not hopeless)• In the PNW (and most of the West) streamflow originates
predominantly as winter snowfall (> 70% westwide)• Topography exerts a strong control on partitioning of
precipitation into rain vs snow (~ 6oC/1000 m mean lapse rate), and amount of precipitation (orographic enhancement)
• Hence hydrologic implications of warming can be extracted from large scale information about warming, as can some information about spatial distribution of precipitation (changes will be most important over mountainous source areas, especially in interior of west where lowlands tend to be arid or semi-arid)
Climate Scenarios
Transient GCM Simulations for Increasing CO2 and Aerosols
AdjustmentsTo ObservedMeteorology
Delta Precip,Temp
HydrologicModel (VIC)
Natural Streamflow
ReservoirModel (ColSim)
DamReleases,Regulated
Streamflow
PerformanceMeasures
Reliability of System Objectives
ColSimReservoir
Model
VICHydrology Model
Changes in Mean Temperature and
Precipitation from GCMs
Overview of ColSim Reservoir Model
Physical Systemof Damsand Reservoirs
Reservoir Operating Policies
Reservoir StorageRegulated StreamflowFlood ControlEnergy ProductionIrrigation ConsumptionStreamflow Augmentation
0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000900000
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
Flow
(cfs
)
Streamflow Time Series
VIC Simulations of April 1 Average Snow Cover ExtentMPI ECHAM4 Scenarios
Base Case ~2025 ~2045
Snow Accumulation and Ablation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
oct nov dec jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep
Ba
sin
Ave
rag
e S
no
w W
ate
r E
qu
iva
len
t (m
m)
Base
HC 2025
MPI 2025
HC 2045
MPI 2045
CORRA
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
aug
Ave
rag
e F
low
(cf
s)
Base
HC
MPI
CHIEF JOSEPH
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
aug
Ave
rag
e F
low
(cf
s)
Base
HC
MPI
ICE HARBOR
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
aug
Ave
rag
e F
low
(cf
s)
Base
HC
MPI
DALLES
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
aug
Ave
rag
e F
low
(cf
s)Base
HC
MPI
Changes to Mean Hydrographs Columbia Basin 2045
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
74
19
74
19
74
19
74
19
74
19
74
Water Year
Flo
w (
cfs
)
HC 2045 TempChange Only
HC 2045 PrecipChange Only
Base
The Dalles
Libby
Lower Granite
McNary
Grand Coulee
Snake R.
Mica
Corra LinnPriest Rapids
Chief Joseph
Ice Harbor
Columbia Falls
Hungry Horse
Oxbow
1
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
FirmEnergy
Non-FirmEnergy
McNaryFlow
SnakeIrrigation
LakeRooseveltRecreation
System Objective
Rel
iab
ilit
y (%
) Base Case
HC 2025
HC 2045
HC 2095
MPI 2025
MPI 2045
ColSim Reliability of System Objectives
50
60
70
80
90
100F
irm E
nerg
y
No
n-F
irm E
nerg
y
Gra
nd C
oul
ee
Re
cre
atio
n
Lo
we
r G
rani
te F
ish
Flo
w
McN
ary
Fis
h F
low
Sna
ke I
rrig
atio
n
Sna
ke R
ive
r N
avig
atio
n
Flo
od
Co
ntro
l
Current Climate
ECHAM4 2040's
HadCM2 2040's
HadCM3 2040's
PCM 2040's
VIC/ColSim 2040’s
DALLES
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
augA
vera
ge
Flo
w (
cfs)
Base
ECHAM4
HadCM2
HadCM3
PCM
-$140
-$120
-$100
-$80
-$60
-$40
-$20
$0
Current 3.3 4.3 6 8.3 33.3
Chan
ge in
Ann
ual P
ower
Rev
enue
(milli
ons)
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
Aver
age A
nnua
l Floo
d Dam
age (
millio
n)
Mean power revenue change
Mean annual f lood damage