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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved.
Possible sources and associated costs in the near and long term for H2 used in Japan
June 26, 2014 Yamanakako, Yamanashi, Japan
IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014
Masaharu Sasakura, Yuki Ishimoto, Atsushi Kurosawa, Ko Sakata The Institute of Applied Energy
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Note: The authors would like to express thanks to members of the Action Plan Study Group for useful insights and discussions. Views and opinions in this material are those of the authors and do not represent the organizational views of the Institute of Applied Energy.
Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
Table of Contents
1. Current hydrogen deliverable volume and costs in Japan
2. Hydrogen demand and allowable costs in 2050
3. Energy system model analysis
4. CO2-free hydrogen chains
5. Prospective vision of CO2-free hydrogen global chains
6. Future issues
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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
1-1. Current hydrogen deliverable volume in Japan
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<Current delivering volume>
Ammonia4.2 billion Nm3/y *2)
Petrochemicals3.1 billion Nm3/y *2)
Steel-making8.6 billion Nm3/y *2)
Sodium hydroxide1.2 billion Nm3/y *2)
35.6 billion Nm3/y *3)
<Hydrogen production capacity>
14.2 billion Nm3/y *1)
Hydro-desulfurizationHydro-cracking
3.6 billion Nm3/y *2)
2.1 billion Nm3/y *2)
8.6 billion Nm3/y *3)
0.6 billion Nm3/y *2)
29.1 billion Nm3/y *3)
4.3 billion Nm3/y *1)
0 billion Nm3/y *3)
1 billion Nm3/y *2)
0.6 billion Nm3/y *2)
0.6 billion Nm3/y *2)
6.5 billion Nm3/y *3)
<In-house use>
Refinery18.5 billion Nm3/y *1)
・HPU:10 billion Nm3/y・By-product:8.5billion Nm3/y
(HPU:Hydrogen production unit)(by increasing capacity factor of existing plants )
(by increasing capacity factor of existing plants )
≪Objective production≫
≪By-production≫
(3.1×0.7(recovery)×(1-0.5(in-house use))) *2)
(all in-house use) *3)
(*1:JPEC-2012LP-01, March 2013)(*2: COCN’s report, March 2009)(*3: IAE’s Action Plan Study Group’s
report, March 2014)COCN: Council on Competitiveness-
Nippon
≪Total≫(1.2×1(recovery)×(1-0.5(in-house use))) *2)
COCN’s supposition at 2030 *2)
H2 stations: 4,600FCEVs: 6.7 millionH2 demand for FCEVs: 7 billion Nm3/y
H2 needs to be imported after around 2030.
0.17 billion Nm3/y *3)
0 billion Nm3/y *3)
0.4 billion Nm3/y *3)
On-site production0.23 billion Nm3/y *3)
Industrial applications・Semiconductor・Glass ・Chemical・Steel-making ・Metal・FCEVs ・Rockets
<Potentialdeliverable volume>
Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
1-2. Current hydrogen costs in Japan
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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
2-1. Hydrogen demand in 2050 (interview with stakeholders)
5 (Note: All answers were obtained as experts’ personal opinions. )
CO2-free hydrogen demand for fuel cell vehicles in 2050
CO2-free hydrogen demand for end-use applications other than fuel cell vehicles in 2050
about 180 billion Nm3/year at best about 40 billion Nm3/year at best
about 220 billion Nm3/year at best in total at 2050
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0.1 1 2 3 5 10 15 30 40 50 110
Num
ber of
resp
onse
s
Hydrogen demand(billion Nm3-H2/y)
Steel-making
Incinerators
Residential H2-FCs
Gas engines
Gas turbines
Refinery HPUs
Large-power generation
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H2-FCs
Thermal power generation
H2-FCs
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3
4
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0.1 1 2 3 5 10 15 30 40 50 110
Num
ber of re
sponse
s
Hydrogen demand(billion Nm3-H2/y)
Fuel cell vehicles
Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
2-2. Allowable hydrogen costs in 2050 (interview with stakeholders)
(Note: All answers were obtained as experts’ personal opinions. )
Allowable CO2-free hydrogen cost for fuel cell vehicles in 2050
Allowable CO2-free hydrogen cost for end-use applications other than
fuel cell vehicles in 2050
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0
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13 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 80 100
Num
ber of re
sponse
s
Allowable hydrogen cost(Yen/Nm3-H2)
Steel-making
Incinerators
Residential H2-FCs
Gas engines
Gas turbines
Refinery HPUs
Large-power generation
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④⑤⑥
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H2-FCs
Thermal power generation
H2-FCs
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1
2
3
4
5
13 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 80 100
Num
ber of re
sponse
s
Alowable hydrogen cost(Yen/Nm3)
Fuel cell vehicles
Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
Energy
Climate
Climate impacts Landuse
Macroeconomy
15 global regions
3. Energy system model analysis 1) Simulation framework of the GRAPE model
GRAPE:an integrated assessment model for long-term analyses of energy, economy, climate change, land-use, and environmental impacts.
GRAPE stands for Global Relationship Assessment to Protect the Environment
Achievements: Referred in the Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment Report and the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and various international model comparison projects.
Simulation using GRAPE’s energy module
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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
2) Schematic diagram of energy flow
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Natural gas
Crude oil
Hard coal
Soft coal
Biomass
Photovoltaic
Nuclear
Wind
Natural gas power generation
Hard coal power generation
Coal combined power generation
Soft coal power generation
H2 production
Oil power generation
Oil refining
Gasoline
Light oil・kerosene
LPG・naphtha
Biomass power generation (mix with coal)
H2 thermal power generation
LWR power generation
FBR power generation
Hydro・geothermal power generation
PV power generation
Wind power generation
Wind power generation(electrolysis)
Electricity
H2 gas engine
H2 gas turbine
FC (hydrogen)
Stationary (heat)
Transportation
FC (natural gas)
FC (light oil・kerosene)
FC (heavy oil)
Heat pump
Bioethanol production
Biodiesel fuel production
Hydrogen
Biodiesel fuel
Bioethanol
LDV ( ICE,PHEV,EV,FCV)
bus,truck,airplane, ship,railroad
Import・ export
Heavy oil
Hydro・geothermal
Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
3)Assumptions
<Nuclear power plants in Japan> ● Phasing out after the operation of 40 years ● No new installations or no replacement
<CO2 emissions in Japan> ●15% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020 ● 80% reduction from 1990 levels by 2050
<H2 cost> ● About 50 yen/Nm3 at CIF (cost, insurance and freight).
(Note:Hydrogen manufacturers’ latest feasibility studies show that CIF 30 yen/Nm3 or less is possible at commercialization phase.)
<Case studies> ● With domestic CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage available in Japan) ● Without domestic CCS (not available in Japan)
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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
4) Simulation results (an example) (1) Contribution of hydrogen to zero-emission power source ratios
● Japanese government’s previous target 70% by 2030
● “With domestic CCS” case 22.8% share of fossil with CCS makes contribution to clear the target in 2035.
● “Without domestic CCS” case 22.7% share of hydrogen makes contribution to clear the target in 2040. ● CO2-free hydrogen is a potential option in Japan.
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Calculation results (%) Japanese government’s
then target With domestic CCS Without domestic CCS @2030 @2030 @2035 @2040 @2030 @2035 @2040
Fossil with CCS - 12.3 22.8 27.2 0 0 0 Renewables ca.20 32.9 40.8 45.3 28.2 36.2 40.6 Nuclear ca.50 19.4 13.2 7.0 19.4 13.2 7.0 Hydrogen - 1.6 2.7 8.4 2.8 10.3 22.7 Total ca.70 66.2 79.5 87.9 50.4 59.7 70.3
●
●
●
previous target
Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
5) Case studies (1) Hydrogen demand in 2050
<Calculating conditions> ≪CO2 emissions in Japan≫ ● 5% reduction from 1990 levels in 2020 ● 80% reduction from 1990 levels in 2050
≪H2 CIF cost≫ ● About 40 yen/Nm3 at 2020 ● About 30 yen/Nm3 at 2050
The order of total hydrogen demand is the same as that from stakeholder interview.
Annual hydrogen demand @2050With domestic CCS Without domestic CCS
Imported CO2-free H2 CIF cost
Yen40/Nm3
@2020~
Yen30/Nm3
@2050
Case ①
Elec.power gene. 116 billion Nm3
Stationary 86 〃
Transportation 81 〃
Total 283 〃
Case ②
Elec.power gene. 169 billion Nm3
Stationary 78 〃
Transportation 86 〃
Total 333 〃
Annual hydrogen demand @2050With domestic CCS Without domestic CCS
Imported CO2-free H2 CIF cost
Yen40/Nm3
@2020~
Yen30/Nm3
@2050
Case ①
Elec.power gene. 116 billion Nm3
Stationary 86 〃
Transportation 81 〃
Total 283 〃
Case ②
Elec.power gene. 169 billion Nm3
Stationary 78 〃
Transportation 86 〃
Total 333 〃
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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
Imported CO2-free hydrogen shares almost all portion of supply under the condition of CIF 30 yen/Nm3-H2 in 2050
(2) Hydrogen supply constitution in 2050 (with domestic CCS available case)
0
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30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(Mto
e)
オンサイト水素ST
食塩電解副生
製鉄所副生
残油ガス化
LPGナフサ
水蒸気改質
輸入CO2フリー水素
①
⑦
③②
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On-site H2 Station
Steam reforming
Imported CO2-free H2
LPG, Naphtha
Residue oil gasification
Steel-makingbyproduct
Saline electrolysisby-product
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(1 Mtoe = about 3.9 billion Nm3-H2)
Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
4.CO2-free hydrogen chains (1) List of typical global chains
Chains Overseas Ocean
transportation
Domestic End-users
Resources Processes and hydrogen careers Processes
1-1 Petroleum Petroleum
Refining·CCS·H2
(via LPG·naptha,
via heavy oil)
H2 stations/FCVs
2-1
Coal
Coal Refining·CCS·H2 Household fuel cells
2-2 CCS·H2·Liq. Liq. H2 Vaporization
2-3 CCS·H2·MCH MCH Dehydrogenation Business fuel cells
2-4 CCS·NH3 NH3 Decomposition
3-1
Natural gas
CCS·LNG LNG Vaporization·CCS·H2 Gas turbine CHPs
3-2 CCS·H2·Liq. Liq. H2 Vaporization
3-3 CCS·H2·MCH MCH Dehydrogenation Gas engine CHPs
3-4 CCS·NH3 NH3 Decomposition
4-1 RE
(power generation)
•wind ·solar heat
·photovoltaic
·hydraulic·etc
Power gen.·electrolysis·Liq. Liq. H2 Vaporization H2 power gen. plants
(air combustion) 4-2 Power gen.·electrolysis·MCH MCH Dehydrogenation
4-3 Power gen.·photoelec. syn NH3 NH3 Decomposition
5-1 Photovoltaic
(direct utilization)
Visible light photocatalytic H2·Liq. Liq. H2 Vaporization H2 power gen. plants
(O2 combustion) 5-2 Visible light photocatalytic H2·MCH MCH Dehydrogenation
5-3 Visible light photocatalytic H2·NH3 NH3 Decomposition
Note: Toluene + H2 ⇔ Methylcyclohexane (MCH)
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●
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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
(2)Estimation of technology maturity of CO2-free hydrogen chains
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□★
□★
2010
★×
★×
(Year)
Basicresearch
Develop.research
Demonst-ration
20402020 2025 2030Idea
2015
Commercial-ization
●●●△■◇
○▲▼Deployment
2035Present
★×
★×
●●●△■◇
△△△■□□◇□★
●△△■ ◇
□★★化kる×
★×
▲▼
△■◇□★○▲▼ ●
Renewables derivedCO2-free H2
Fossil derivedCO2-free H2
Wind powerH2 chain
LiquefiedH2 chain
Organic chemicalhydride (MCH) chain Visible light photocatalytic
water decompositionH2 chain
ElectrosynthesisNH3 chain
Technology maturityof CO2-free H2 chains
Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
5. Prospective vision of commercial CO2-free hydrogen chains
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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
6. Future issues ( just for discussion )
1) To achieve allowable (end-users’ acceptable) H2 cost range
under the collaboration of all stakeholders. Industries’ cost-down steps
To specify potential H2 end-uses with large-scale in particular
To define supply chains and commercialization time
To do section-wise cost analysis of supply chains
(which section has large cost impact?)
To set up cost-down targets of each section
(including government financial support, if needed)
To decide action plan to achieve targeted cost-down
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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
6. Future issues (continued)
Government’s strong leadership and financial support
Preceded infrastructure preparation in particular
Technology development and demonstration stage – RD&D financing, capital cost support for large-scale demonstration
Niche markets stage: high cost gap – Stable, technology-specific incentives
– e.g. Feed-in tariffs, tax credits, loan guarantees
– Strong support for capital cost and operation cost
Outreach activities
Academia
Basic research and development
Human resources development
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Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
6. Future issues (continued)
2) To draft scenarios leading to commercialization of potential
H2 chains (Action Plan Study Group’s plan in FY2014) potential H2 end-uses with large-scale in particular
Which comes first?
What is the trigger? – Thermal power plants?
– Hydro-desulfurization in refinery?
– H2-based steel-making?
– Industrial H2 co-generations (gas turbines, gas engines)?
Domestic H2 delivery
In consideration of end-uses, supply sources, volume, distance, etc.
Domestic H2 production
Overseas H2 production 18
Copyright; 2014 IAE. All rights reserved. IEA Hydrogen Roadmap, Asia Workshop 2014 in Japan
Thank you very much for your attention !
Masaharu Sasakura [email protected]
Yuki Ishimoto, Atsushi Kurosawa, Ko Sakata
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