portiga - final report phase i
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PORTIGA FINAL REPORT PHASE ITRANSCRIPT
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Strictly Limited and Confidential
Project Portiga (Phase 1)Strategic Review on Financing Strategy of Pelindo III23 December 2015
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DISCLAIMER
This confidential Report (the “document”) has been exclusively prepared by PT Bahana Securities (“Bahana”) for PT Pelabuhan Indonesia III (Persero) (“Pelindo III”), in relation to
Strategic Review on Financing Strategy of Pelindo III (the “Assignment”). The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However,
none of PT Bahana Securities and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts
any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this
report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof.
Certain statements in this document may constitute “forward-looking statements”. All statements other than statements of historical facts including in this document, including, without
limitation, financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of the managements of Pelindo III on future operations, are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking
statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from
future results, performance or achievements expresses or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions
regarding Pelindo III, present and future business strategies of Pelindo III and the environment in which Pelindo III will operate in the future.
We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of PT Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and
howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any
person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT Bahana Securities, its affiliated companies or their respective
employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy
therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
The information contained in this report is not be taken as the sole information and recommendation to enter into any agreement with regard to any corporate actions mentioned in this
document. This report is prepared for informational purposes only. This Report is strictly confidential and (save to the extent required by the applicable laws and/or regulations) must
not be released to any third party without our express written consent, which is at our sole discretion.
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Executive Summary• In line with the Government of Republic of Indonesia plan to promote Indonesia as the Poros Maritim Dunia in 2045 with the Tol Laut Initiatives, PT
Pelabuhan Indonesia III (Persero) (“Pelindo III” or “the Company”) plans to further elevate the quality and capacity of its service through the
improvement of existing ports and development of new ports, which would require a total of IDR 23 trillion throughout 2015 to 2019. According
to the Long Term Corporate Plan (2015 – 2019), the total investment has included Pelindo III’s obligation as one of nation’s agents of development to
establish five terminals in Eastern Indonesia i.e. Maumere, Lembar, Kupang, Bima and Kumai.
• To execute the masterplan, Pelindo III is obliged to conduct proper planning and preparation, including a through and comprehensive study on
financing options feasibility, to ensure governance and optimality of the process and results that are in accordance with the prevailing rules and
regulations.
• Therefore, based on Perjanjian Pemborongan (P2) No. HK.0502/518.1/P.III-2015, Pelindo III has appointed PT Bahana Securities (“Bahana”), along
with PricewaterhouseCoopers Indonesia and BMT Asia Pacific, to act as independent consultants for the Company to the aforementioned study to
assist Pelindo III in achieving its objectives.
• In this report, we performed a comparative analysis between financing options and strategies with regards to the capital expenditure plan, financial
projections and overall conditions of the Company, of which we measure the cost of capital accross various financing instruments, as well as their
corresponding characteristics.
• Pelindo III has been mandated to execute several PSO projects, which may bring low returns to the firm.
• Based on qualitative and quantitative analysis:
• Compared to its global port operator peers, Pelindo III’s financials indicated an overleveraged capital structure of Debt to Equity level of
1.31(x) vs 0.57(x) industry average, and Net Debt to EBITDA level of 2.84(x) vs 1.92(x) industry average.
• Quantitave figures from Financial Covenants Ratio Analysis, shown that under debt financing scenarios, Pelindo III will breach Net
debt/EBITDA covenant of 3.00(x) during FY 2016 due to additional funds required for the capex, hence Pelindo III needs an equity injection for
the total of needed funds or renegotiation of covenants (including obtaining waiver) with loan issuer.
• Equity financing may be obtained through various sources such as shareholder’s equity injection through Penyertaan Modal Negara (PMN), IPO and
extension of existing Joint-Operating Agreement in one of its subsidiaries (PT Terminal Petikemas Surabaya). From the available options, extension
of existing JOA in TPS resulted in moderate level of return to equity holders, considerably low credit risks, immediate availability of funding
and short processing time required.
• Based on incremental FCFE analysis, Joint operate scenario contributes higher NPV than the Self operate scenario.
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
1Chapter 1
Background & Objective
Chapter 2
Scope of Work2
Chapter 3
Methodology3
4Chapter 4
Economic & Industry Overview
Chapter 5
Pelindo III Existing and Strategic Plan Overview 5
Chapter 6
Financing Alternatives Analysis6
Chapter 7
Equity Financing - Strategic Option of Joint-Operating
Agreement Extension
7
Chapter 8
Financial Analysis – TPS Valuation8
Chapter 9
Conclusion9
Appendix A
BMT ReportA
Appendix B
PwC ReportB
5
7
9
13
27
33
46
51
57
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Chapter IBackground and Objectives
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
• In line with the Government of Republic of Indonesia plan to promote Indonesia as the World Maritime Axis in 2045 with the Sea Toll Initiatives,
PT Pelabuhan Indonesia III (Persero) (“Pelindo III” or “the Company”) plans to further elevate the quality and capacity of its service through the
improvement of existing ports and development of new ports, which would require a total of IDR 23 trillion throughout 2015 to 2019. According
to the Long Term Corporate Plan (2015 – 2019), the total investment has included Pelindo III’s obligation as one of nation’s agents of
development to establish five terminals in Eastern Indonesia i.e. Maumere, Lembar, Kupang, Bima and Kumai.
• To execute the masterplan, Pelindo III is obliged to conduct proper planning and preparation, including a through and comprehensive study on
financing options feasibility, to ensure governance and optimality of the process and results that are in accordance with the prevailing rules and
regulations.
• Therefore, based on Perjanjian Pemborongan (P2) No. HK.0502/518.1/P.III-2015, Pelindo III has appointed PT Bahana Securities (“Bahana”),
along with PricewaterhouseCoopers Indonesia (“PwC”) and BMT Asia Pacific (“BMT”), to act as independent consultants for the Company to the
aforementioned study to assist Pelindo III in achieving its objectives.
Background
6
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Chapter IIScope of Work
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Scope of Work
8
Strategic Review on Financing Strategy of Pelindo III
Bahana, supported by PwC and BMT, will conduct preliminary study to determine feasible financing alternatives for Pelindo III strategic business plan
2015 – 2019
• To analyze the most optimum financing alternatives in relation with Pelindo III’s capex plan to align with Pelindo III’s strategic objectives
• To perform qualitative analysis among financing alternatives
• To provide analysis on economic outlook, industry and market overview, competitiveness and competition landscape
• To perform technical review in TPS Level including cargo forcast, productivity review; commercial and costing review
• To perform financial modeling in TPS Level
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Chapter IIIMethodology
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Workflow Overview
10
Qualitative Analysis
Approach Methodology
TPS Financial Analysis
Pelindo III Strategic Rationals
Assumptions used to determine existing condition vs alternative scenarios, including, but not limited to:• Operational Aspect• Technical Aspect• Macro economy,
Industry and Market Aspects
• Strategic Masterplan(2015 – 2019)
• Financial Proforma• Capex requirement• Funding cost &
alternatives• Cost vs Benefits
Analysis
Market overview, competitiveness &
competition landscape
Key technical evaluation points that we will be focusing on :
Cargo Forecasts
What are the current market conditions, existing demand and competitiveness that support the vision of TPS?
What will be the prospective container market potential (throughputs) at TPS in the next Joint-Operating Agreement period?
MasterplanReview
Are the Masterplans proposed by Pelindo III suitable and sufficient for TPS?
Commercial & Costing
What will be the expected tariffs and costs associated with the proposed development and their implications for the Joint-Operating Agreement ?
Equity Debt
SUITABILITYTo Cash Flow Model for Pelindo III
What are the main objectives and issues for Pelindo III?
What is the most optimum financing alternative? Equity or Debt?
• Efficient Cost of Capital• Lower Risk • Improve Firm’s Value
.
VALUE GAPFor Pelindo III
Pelindo III Main Objectives
Financing Alternatives
A
B
Output
Firm Value for Self-Operate
Scenario
Firm Value for Joint-Operate
Scenario
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Evaluation Methodology
11
What is the most optimum financing alternative?
What are the current Pelindo III conditions, future growth and expansion
• Review of Existing & Future Financial Conditon Review of Capex Planning How to finance the capex : Debt and Equity (PMN, Bonds,
Loan, IPO, Extension of existing agreement) Financial analysis including industry benchmarking and
financial covenants• Technical Benefits
Productivity Improvement Skill and knowledge sharing Operation Risk sharing
Pelindo III Strategic Rationales
Financial & technical evaluation
• Technical Review Economic Outlook Industry Market overview, competitiveness & competition
landscape Cargo Forecast Commercial & Costing
• Pro’s & Con’s Analysis Termination Cost Posibility Financial & Non Financial Benefit Operation Risk sharing
• Incremental Free Cash Flow Analysis
Equity Financing Requirement and
Feasibility
Debt Financing Requirement and
Feasibility
A B
Financing Alternatives
Self-OperateI
Joint-OperateII
Note :
1. Each scenarios should be covered with legal opinion from independent
legal counsel.
Alternatives:
Our approaches will be consider :
A
B
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Evaluation Methodology
12
TPS Financial Analysis TPS Firm Value
Market overview, competitiveness & competition landscape Cargo Forecasts
What are the current market conditions, existing demand and competitiveness that support the vision of TPS?
What will be the prospective container market potential (throughputs) at TPS in the next Joint-Operating Agreement period?
Masterplan Review
Are the Masterplans proposed by Pelindo III suitable and sufficient for TPS
Commercial & Costing
What will be the expected tariffs and costs associated with the proposed development and their implications for the Joint-Operating Agreement ?
• Review of Market Situation Analyze macro-economic conditions Historical review of cargo base volume growth trend Identification of demand drivers and trend
• Port Competitiveness Analysis Strategic Positioning
• Productivity & Capacity Analysis Benchmarking to other local and global container ports
• Review of Forecast Volume The reasonableness of container traffic forecasting provided
by the Joint-Operating Agreement • Propose Alternative Scenarios• Forecasting Modeling & Analysis
• Review of Masterplan Feasibility of the plan – layout, phasing schedule and
development program Capex projection Throughput projection
• Masterplan optimization• Additional development options
• Tariff Review and Forecast• Costs Review and Forecast
B
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Chapter IVEconomic & Industry Overview
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Global economic outlook – Improving Developed Markets
14
Interest rate expectations in some Asian countries, 2014-16F
Source : Drewry Maritime Research, 2015
• IMF indicates that the developed markets should slightly recover in
2016 while developing-market growth momentum is quite low on weak
commodity prices and expectations of US monetary tightening.
• A slowdown in emerging markets could be tackled by performing
stimulus on both the fiscal and monetary sides. Some countries are
expected to continue monetary easing in 2016, with Indonesia seeing a
75bp cut in its policy rate, based on our forecasts.
• From a trade perspective, sluggish global trade growth may see a slight
improvement next year.
IMF global economic outlook, 2015-2017
Source : Bloomberg, Bahana estimates
Global trade growth, Jan 2007-July 2015
Source : IMF, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates
22.6
-24.6
21.4
-10.0
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
(%)
CountriesReal GDP CPI C. A. Balance
Old 2015F 2016F Old 2015F 2016F Old 2015F 2016F
World Output 3.3 3.1 3.6 - - - - - -
United States 2.4 2.6 2.8 1.6 0.1 1.1 (2.2) (2.6) (2.9)
Canada 2.4 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.6 (2.1) (2.9) (2.3)
Euro Area 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.0
Germany 1.6 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 1.2 (0.9) 8.5 8.0
Japan (0.1) 0.6 1.0 2.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 3.0 3.0
France 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 1.0 (0.9) (0.2) (0.4)
Italy (0.4) 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.0 2.3UK 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.5 0.1 1.5 (5.9) (4.7) (4.3)
Spain 1.4 3.1 2.5 (0.2) (0.3) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1
BrazilMexico
0.12.1
(3.0)2.3
(1.0)2.8
6.34.0
8.92.8
6.33.0
(4.4)(1.9)
(4.0)(2.4)
(3.8)(2.0)
China 7.3 6.8 6.3 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 3.1 2.8
India 7.3 7.3 7.5 5.9 5.4 5.5 (1.3) (1.4) (1.6)
Indonesia 5.0 4.7 5.1 6.4 6.8 5.4 (3.0) (2.2) (2.1)
Source : Bloomberg, Bahana estimates
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Indonesia – Still one of the fastest-growing economies
15
2015F GDP comparison in BRICS-MINT countries
Source : Drewry Maritime Research, 2015
• In line with the central bank’s forecast, we expect 4Q15 GDP growth to
come in at 4.78% (3Q15: 4.73%), and is expected to remain flat in 1Q16.
• Bahana expects 2015 GDP growth at 4.72% in 2015, compared to
consensus projections of 5.0% and the government’s estimate of 5.2%.
Looking at 2016, we expect GDP growth to rise slightly to 5.1%, slightly
lower than the government’s and central bank’s forecasts ranging
between 5.2-5.6%.
• However, even at 5.1% economic growth, Indonesia would still remain as
the third highest next to India’s 7.6% and China’s 6.5%. Growth drivers
include expected government infrastructure project realizations and solid
direct investments.
Forecast of regional GDP growth rates
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimates, *Actual; for India 2015-17F = FY16-18F (March year end)
Real GDP growth, 2010-2016F
Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bahana estimatesSource : Bloomberg, Cinsensus Bahana estimates
7.4
6.9
6.2
4.8 4.7
3.5 3.4
2.92.7
2.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
India China Philippines Malaysia Indonesia Taiwan Thailand South Korea Singapore Hong Kong
(%)
Countries1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15F 1Q16F 2015F 2016F2017F
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
India 7.5 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.8 7.4 7.6 8.0
China 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.5 6.3
Philippines 5.2 6.0 7.3 5.9 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.2
Indonesia 4.7 4.7 4.7* 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.2
Malaysia 5.6 4.6 5.0 4.4 3.9 4.8 5.1 4.8
Thailand 3.0 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.6 3.4 4.0 3.9
Taiwan 3.4 0.6* 3.2 3.5 1.1 3.5 3.5 3.2
South Korea 2.5 2.2* 2.9 3.5 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.4
Singapore 2.8 1.7* 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.2
Hong Kong 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.5 3.0 2.8
6,8647,288
7,7278,158
8,5688,972
9,4306.22
6.17
6.03
5.58
5.02
4.72
5.10
4.00
4.20
4.40
4.60
4.80
5.00
5.20
5.40
5.60
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
(%)(IDRtn)
Real GDP (LHS) GDP growth (RHS)
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
International trade: The changing exposure
16
Indonesia’s export-product mix, 2014 vs. 9M15
• Given China’s economic slowdown, Indonesia’s trade structure is
experiencing a change as the country’s exposure to the US is increasing,
while its exposure to Japan and China continues to drop.
• Indonesia’s commodity exports dropped with 9M15 exports of coal as a
percentage of total exports falling to 12.3% (2014: 14.2%) and 11.5% for
CPO (2014: 11.9%). Meanwhile, the mix of textile and textile-export
products rose to 9.3% in 9M15 (2014: 8.8%).
• Imports of electric components and processed foods continued to
increase, while imports of metal-based products continued to drop amid
lower investment growth in 2015. Going forward, we expect this change
in trade structure to remain.
Change in trade partners, indexed, Jan 2013–Sept 2015
Source: Bloomberg
Indonesia’s import product mix, 2014 vs. 9M15
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimatesSource : Bloomberg, Bahana estimates
12.3%
11.5%
9.3%
7.8%
6.6%5.8%
4.5%
4.5%
3.3%2.8%
31.5%
Coal
Palm oils
Textile and textile products
Other manufacture products
Electrical apparatus, measuringinstruments and optical
Base metal products
Processed rubber
Processed food
Footwear
Processed wood products
Others
9M15
14.2%
11.9%
8.8%
8.6%
6.9%6.2%
4.3%
4.8%2.8%
1.4%
30.0%
Coal
Palm oils
Textile and textile products
Other manufacture products
Electrical apparatus, measuringinstruments and optical
Base metal products
Processed food
Processed rubber
Footwear
Articles of gold
Others
2014
76.8
111.9
93.8
94.5
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
(%)
China Japan United States EU Singapore
14.4%
12.7%
6.9%
6.2%
6.1%
5.4%3.3%2.8%
2.4%2.1%
37.7%
Electrical apparatus, measuring instruments and optical
Base metal products
Chemicals
Artificial resin, plastic materials
Textile and textile products
Other agricultural products
Processed food
Parts of vehicles
Cattle fodder
Motor vehicle 4 wheels and more
Others
9M15
14.1%
13.6%
7.2%
6.2%
5.6%
5.5%3.4%
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%
36.5%
Electrical apparatus, measuring instrumentsand optical
Base metal products
Chemicals
Artificial resin, plastic materials
Textile and textile products
Other agricultural products
Processed food
Parts of vehicles
Cattle fodder
Motor vehicle 4 wheels and more
others
2014
14.4%
12.7%
6.9%
6.2%
6.1%
5.4%3.3%2.8%
2.4%2.1%
37.7%
Electrical apparatus, measuring instruments and optical
Base metal products
Chemicals
Artificial resin, plastic materials
Textile and textile products
Other agricultural products
Processed food
Parts of vehicles
Cattle fodder
Motor vehicle 4 wheels and more
Others
9M15
14.1%
13.6%
7.2%
6.2%
5.6%
5.5%3.4%
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%
36.5%
Electrical apparatus, measuring instrumentsand optical
Base metal products
Chemicals
Artificial resin, plastic materials
Textile and textile products
Other agricultural products
Processed food
Parts of vehicles
Cattle fodder
Motor vehicle 4 wheels and more
others
2014
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Overview of the global port sector
17
Global Container Throughput 2004 - 2014
Source : Drewry Maritime Research, 2015
Global container throughput increased at a 6.4% CAGR in the last decade (2004-2014). It has been growing steadily barring in 2009, when the global economy crashed.
• A strong correlation exists between economic development and growth
and contrainer traffic growth. Throughout the years, the growth in
container traffic has consistently outperformed economic growth, more
so in the developing economy, as indicated by the historical relationship
between real GDP and global container shipping volume.
• In the past decade, global trade has expanded substantially with CAGR
growth of 3.8% throughout 2005 – 2013.
• Asia accounts for the largest proportion of global maritime trade, mainly
contributed from rapid increase in China and Southeast asia as the new
and alternate manufacturing centers.
Global trade (in million tonnes; CAGR 2005 – 2013)
Source : UCTAD 2013, Drewry Maritime Advisors
Global container trade increased at 5.8% CAGR during 2005 – 2013.
Global maritime trade market share
Asia accounts for 38.7% of exports and 49.4% of imports in the global maritime trade share.
Source : Drewry Maritime Research, 2015
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Regional sea transport industry
18
Logistic Costs – GDP Ratio in 2014
South East Asia Container Port Utilization, 2011 - 2017
Source : www.pp3.co.id
Source : Drewry Maritime Advisor
South East Asia Container Port Demand
Source : Drewry Maritime Advisor
• South East Asia container port demand is expected to grow with CAGR
5.7% from 2012 to 2017.
• In line with demand growth, container port utilization is also projected to
increase from around 100,000 to 120,000 thousand TEU (reach almost
90% capacity) which indicates requirement for new capacity in 2017.
• Logistic costs to GDP ratio in Indonesia is the highest (27%) among
regional countries, due to long turn around, inefficient handling and
small scale ships that connect domestic hubs which cause higher
working capital.
South East Asia Container Port Demand
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Indonesia sea transport positioning
19
Indonesian port logistics competence (2014)
Source: Worldbank
• Indonesia improved its connectivity index in the Global Competitiveness
Index from 104th rank in 2012 from 77th rank in 2014.
• Indonesia ranked 53rd in Worldbank 2014 Logistics Performance Index,
far below its peers with Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand ranked 5th,
25th and 35th consecutively. Indonesia is still lacking in terms of
Infrastructure, Customs, International Shipments, Tracking & tracing,
and Timeliness. However, in terms of Logistics competence, Indonesia
is almost on-par with Thailand and Malaysia.
• Growth of container trade in Indonesia outpaced that of Southeast Asia
and the rest of the world with share of container port throughput in
Southeast Asia increased from 12.6% in 2004 to 15.3% in 2014.
Improving Sea Transport Position in Global Competitiveness Index
Source: Worldbank
Comparative position of Indonesia in SEA (2004 – 2014)
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
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Indonesia sea transport industry
20
Indonesian container port throughput, 2004 - 2014
Indonesia vs region and the world
Source : Drewry Maritime Research
Loading Unloading of International Cargo at Indonesian Ports
25,000
125,000
225,000
325,000
425,000
525,000
625,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Internasional Unloaded Internasional Loaded
Source : Sea Transportation Statistics 2014
Thousand
of Tons
Source : Drewry Maritime Research
• International cargo unloaded at Indonesian Ports growth remained flat
for the past years, while cargo loaded experienced steep growth
during 2010 – 2013 before it declined in 2014.
• The combined container port throughput increased at CAGR of 8%
from 6.6 mteu in 2004 to 14.2 mteu in 2014. It had been steadily
increasing before slowing down in 2014, for both domestic and
international volume on the back of cut in fuel subsidy that drives down
domestic demand and slowing world economies.
• The Indonesian container throughput of 14.2 mteu in 2014 was mainly
generated by two ports: Tanjung Priok in Jakarta (Pelindo II) and
Tanjung Perak in Surabaya (Pelindo III).
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Indonesia strategic ports traffic
21
• The loading volume of inter-island cargo in 25 strategic ports in 2014
increased by 16.8% compared to the year 2013 while unloading
volume increased by 13.74% in the same year.
• Average growth rate per year 2010 -1014 production of
loading unloading in quay managed by Indonesia Ports Corporation I –
IV for unit decreased by -9.8%. (2014 without IPC II due to unavalable
data).
• Eventough for production of container tend to decrease over 2010
– 2014 by –8,23%, Pelindo III had experienced positive growth from 2.6
Mio Teus in 2010 to 4.3 Mio Teus in 2014.
Loading Unloading of Inter-Island Cargo at Indonesian Ports
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Inter-Island Unloaded Inter-Island Loaded
Thousand
of Tons
Source : Sea Transportation Statistics 2014
Production of Loading/Unloading in Quay Managed by IPC I - IV
Production of Container Handling by Terminal Yard on IPC I - IV
2012 2013 2014
Source : Ministry of Transportation Statistic 2014
Thousand
of Tons/m3
Thousand
of TEUS
119.630 133.170 133.393 152.075
103.830 92.092 73.29176.819
132.199 124.844
72.780
96.754 80.643
73.808
69.817
129.638
94.691
138.210
93.894
2011
456.433
2010
452.413
-9,86%
Pelindo IV
Pelindo II
353.272
Pelindo III
430.749
298.711
Pelindo I
Pelindo III
Pelindo IV
3.940
1.305
2011
11.164
1.335
2012 2013 2014
Source : Ministry of Transportation Statistic 2014
11.747
1.590
8.927
1.733
4.131
1.7285.3904.911
1.794
Pelindo I
-8,23%
7.552
1.350
4.338
1.421
2.950
Pelindo II
1.474
2010
10.651
1.280
2.666
5.229
1.474
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Pelindo III - Tanjung Perak terminals
22
• Throughput of Tanjung Perak is expected to reach 4.2 million TEUs in
2020 and 9.7 million TEUs in 2030. on the back of growing domestic
demand
• There are 5 key container terminals of Tanjung Perak, namely:
TPS (international and domestic; international concentrated)
BJTI (international and domestic; domestic concentrated)
Jamrud & Mirah (solely domestic)
Nilam (solely domestic), and
Lamong (international and domestic).
• Currently, TPS is the dominant container terminal at Tanjung Perak,
accounting for a steady 90% of total international container throughput
of Tanjung Perak. With the new Lamong Terminal into operation in
2017, the market share of TPS is expected to be diluted.
Shares of International Trade at Key Terminals of Tanjung Perak
Shares of Domestic Trade at Key Terminals of Tanjung Perak
2012 2013 2014
Source : DPW Traffic Data for 2007 to 2014, BMT Analysis
Source : DPW Traffic Data for 2007 to 2014, BMT Analysis
TanTanjung Perak Throughput Forecast
Source : BMT Estimates
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
TPS productivity benchmarking
23
Terminal Area Productivity of Global Ports
Yard Crane Productivity of Global Ports
Source : BMT Analysis
TanQuay Crane Productivity of Global Ports
Berth Length Productivity of Global Ports
Source : BMT Analysis
Source : BMT Analysis
The productivity of TPS is considered above average by international standards, and can be ranked as “2nd Tier” among the
global container ports. TPS is less productive compared to the “1st Tier” ports / terminals located in the world-class container
ports.
Source : BMT Analysis
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
National Port Development Plan 2015 - 2019
24
National Development Plan 2015 – 201924 Seaports Capacity Development
Source: Ministry of Transportation 2015, Indonesia Port Development and Expansion Plans 2015
Port development by operator
• Within the National Port Development Plan
2015-2019, as part of the Sea Toll Road
Program Initiative, Pelindo III is mandated
to develop 4 out of 24 seaports
development: Tanjung Perak, Tanjung
Emas, Banjarmasin and Tenau Kupang
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
In line with Jokowi‟s priority agenda, Nawa Cita, sea
connectivity initiatives is a key in responding to
challenges of economic globalization and moving the
strategic sectors of domestic economy (point 6 and 7).
President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo‟s vision to develop a
modern transport system, known as “maritime highways”,
is beginning to materialize in Indonesia. New freight
transport services are being introduced and existing
services are being intensified and improved. Also the
national port system is being improved.
The Government‟s programme for the development of 24
commercial ports, over 1,000 non-commercial ports and
the procurement of vessels between 2015 and 2019
requires US$55.4 billion.
The integrated programme of the Government is expected
to reduce logistics costs from 23.5 percent of the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) in 2014 to 19.2 percent in 2019.
Source : State of Logistics Indonesia 2015, kpu.go.id
1. Protect the nation and provide security to all citizens, through free and active foreign policy,
trusted national security and development of integrated national defense Tri Matra and
strengthen its identity as a maritime nation.
2. Building a fine, effective, democratic and reliable governance, by giving priority to restoration
of public confidence in democratic institutions by continuing the consolidation of democracy
through party system reformation, elections, and representative institutions.
3. Building Indonesia from the periphery to strengthen the regions within the framework of a
unitary state.
4. Rejecting weak states by reforming the system as well as corruption-free, dignified, and
reliable law enforcement.
5. Improve the quality of human life in Indonesia by enhancing the quality of education and
training programs named "Indonesia Pintar"; as well as the improvement of social welfare
programs "Indonesia Work" and "Prosperous Indonesia" by promoting land reform and land
ownership program covering 9 hectares, the village home program or a series of affordable
subsidized flats and social security for citizens in 2019.
6. Improve citizens’ productivity and competitiveness in international market, thus
Indonesian can move forward and rise together with other Asian nations.
7. Realization of economic independence by moving the strategic sectors of the
domestic economy.
8. Revolutionizing the character of the nation, through realignment policy of national education
curriculum with advanced civic education, which proportionally puts education aspects, such
as education regarding the history of the nation formation, the values of patriotism and love
of the country, the spirit of defending the country and the character in Indonesia educational
curriculum.
9. Strengthen diversity and Indonesia social restoration through the policy of strengthening
education for diversity and create spaces of dialogue between citizens.
President Jokowi’s 9 Priority Agenda : Nawa Cita
Nawa Cita
26
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Coast River
Train
Sea Connectivity InitiativesSea Toll Concept Shipping Industry
Shipping Industry
• Maritime Education• Ship Design• Specialized Ship
Yards• Advanced Ship
Equipment• Ports and Terminals• Shipping
Management• Shipping Brokers• Maritime IT• Maritime R&D
• Offshore Oil and Gas Industry
• Maritime Policies• Human Resources
Services• Logistics Systems• Environmental
Standards• Shipping
Classification Services
• Shipping Insurance• Shipping Finance• Efficient Fisheries
Effective Inland Access
Land Pipe
Sea Toll is the effective sea connectivity in the form of ships that sail regularly and scheduled
from west to east Indonesia
Passengerand Cruise
Sea Toll
Specialty Services
Cruise : Traveling
and Leisure
IntegratedTransport
TouristsDestinations
and Commercial
Container Sea Toll
Reliable PortRoutine and Scheduled Shipping
Shipping Industry
Effective InlandAccess
Load Adequacy
(west to east – east to
west)
Installed Capacity
Productivity
Effective Documentation
Data and System Information
Water Entrance – Inland Transport
Supporting Institution
Route
Size
Window System
Inaport Net
Reliable Port Routine and Scheduled Shipping
27
Source : Company
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Chapter VPelindo III Existing and Strategic Plan Overview
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Key growth strategies
28
• Configuration of the port to enable each
terminal to handle specialised cargo
− Eliminated the needs to change
equipment when servicing different
cargo types
− Dedicated terminals concentrating
expertise of different cargo types
• Clustering focused on the larger ports
− Tanjung Perak – in progress
− Tanjung Emas – in progress
− Banjarmasin – in progress
− Benoa – in progress
− Kupang – planned
• Modernization of port equipment
increases the handling capacity and
efficiency, improve turn around time and
safety of the terminals
− Modern equipment by means of
automation is being introduced at key
ports, including European environmental
friendly technology
− Existing types of equipment used to
increase capacity of smaller ports and
test demand in new markets
• Renovation / upgrading of existing ports
− Upgrading of Benoa, Bali cruise terminal
− Upgrading of Tanjung Wangi, Marina
Boom
• Services at existing branches
− Providing containers, liquid and dry bulk
services at each branch
− Establishing LNG terminals – started in
Benoa, December 2015
• New facilities
− JIIPE industrial and residential estate /
Manyar multipurpose terminal – in
operation January, 2016
− Expanding existing terminals and
container yards
− Gilimas Cruise Terminal in Lombok, West
Nusa Tenggara
Clustering of Services Port Modernization Expansion
Source : Company
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Pelindo III Operational Area
29
Pelindo III
operates the 2nd, 5th
and 6th out of the 6
biggest ports in
Indonesia
Port (TEUs
millions)
Tanjung Priok PII 5,7
Tanjung Perak PIII 3,1
Belawan PI 0,9
Makassar PIV 0,6
Tanjung Emas PIII 0,5
Banjarmasin PIII 0,4
2
5
6
Tanjung Perak Tanjung Emas BanjarmasinA B C
Including TPS / Berlian / Nilam / Teluk Lamong
[73%]
[63%]
Including TPKS / Nusantara / Samudra
[12%]
[13%]
Including TPKB / Martapura / Trisakti
[10%]
[8%]
Terminals:
% of 2014 container traffic:
% of 2014 net revenue:
Main and major branches
5
6
3
Source : Company
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Port Modernization: immediate improvements
30
Capacity Improvement
Handling Efficiency
Improvement
Turn Around Time
Improvement
1
2
3
• Dredging the harbor pool
• Shipping channel and route revitalization
• Container yard expansion (CY)
• Automated Rubber Tyred Gantry (RTG), Container Crane and
Reach Stacker units addition
• Interconnectivity with railway system
• Extension of pier/jetty length
• Reclamation and rezoning
• Development of Pier and Terminal
• 24/7 operational service
• Readiness of assistance service facility (scouting and delay)
• Priority bollard provision for window ships
How much
does it cost
to increase
capacity ?
Fundamental Focus Areas Immediate Improvements
Source : Company
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
No Company 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019TOTAL
INVESTMENT2015 - 2019
A. Holding Company
1 Kantor Pusat 514.548 1.265.260 979.800 10.250 4.500 2.774.358
Proyek Teluk Lamong 998.300 1.217.350 372.044 123.044 510.777 3.221.516
Proyek APBS 721.600 103.200 - - - 824.800
2 Tanjung Perak 307.826 570.944 463.900 298.300 94.000 1.734.970
3 Banjarmasin 381.057 97.895 69.238 72.013 74.300 694.502
4 Tanjung Emas 87.370 80.490 23.000 32.550 298.700 522.110
5 Gresik 49.657 14.825 4.000 4.000 20.000 92.482
6 Kotabaru 45.713 98.200 91.600 24.000 28.500 288.013
7 Tanjung Intan 18.158 93.800 54.500 54.900 44.500 265.858
8 Tenau Kupang* 33.730 164.560 232.800 23.800 52.000 506.890
9 Benoa 86.475 103.715 497.956 753.985 811.280 2.253.411
10 Sampit 22.740 30.500 112.158 40.750 50.750 256.898
11 Tanjung Wangi 37.400 132.350 97.800 72.500 30.000 370.050
12 Kumai* 31.200 28.345 47.500 42.500 42.500 192.045
13 Lembar* 58.150 75.052 266.544 155.875 152.750 708.371
14 Probolinggo 2.224 1.475 50.000 36.000 27.003 116.702
15 Bima* 14.050 50.625 71.600 17.255 6.650 160.180
16 Celukan Bawang 61.668 75.775 264.000 274.000 343.500 1.018.943
17 Maumere* 28.600 111.750 50.377 12.328 13.374 216.429
18 TPKS 658.742 359.015 197.000 270.000 270.000 1.754.757 Total Investment –Holding Company
4.159.206 4.675.126 3.945.816 2.318.050 2.875.084 17.973.283
B. Subsidiary
1 TTL 26.398 12.015 - - - 38.413
2 PHC 19.722 13.494 25.500 28.250 37.250 124.216
3 TPS 313.217 547.271 786.084 663.028 742.105 3.051.705
4 BJTI 738.630 381.285 322.011 234.180 249.340 1.925.445
5 PMS 56.736 34.280 47.500 44.500 56.500 239.516
6 PDS 698 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 4.698 Totak Investment -
Subsidiary1.155.400 989.345 1.182.095 970.958 1.086.195 5.383.993
GRAND TOTAL INVESTMENT
5.314.606 5.664.472 5.127.911 3.289.008 3.961.279 23.357.276
Capex Plan
31
Investment Costs
Source: RJPP Pelindo III (2015 – 2019)
• By 2019, Pelindo III targeted IDR 23,35 trillion total
investment attributable to the development of ports
under both holding company and subsidiaries.
• In line with the Government’s National Development
Port Plan and the Tol Laut initiative, Pelindo III is set
to develop 4 ports out of the 24 planned ports i.e.
Tanjung Perak, Tanjung Emas, Banjarmasin and
Tenau Kupang.
Eastern Indonesia Development
• Pelindo III was tasked to develop five terminals*
namely Maumere, Lembar, Kupang, Bima and Kumai
– in the effort to support the development of transport
infrastructure in eastern Indonesia, which would
require a total of IDR 1,8 trillion financing
arrangement to finance the development.
In million IDR
Financing ArrangementIn order to get the most optimum financing arrangement
to finance the capex requirement, Pelindo III shall
ensure the following:
• Efficient cost of capital
• Lower risk
• Firm’s value improvement
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Existing Capital Structure
32
Optimal capital structure will create maximum
firm value
Industry mapping (x) 2014
Source: Aswath Damodaran
• Higher level of debt creates higher risk exposure and increases
firm’s cost of capital, which drives down firm’s value
• However, lower level of debt creates higher portion of equity
(cost of equity = cost of capital) hence firm’s value also tends to
decrease
• Pelindo III Debt to Equity ratio of 1.31x is well above the industry
average level of 0.57x which indicates overlevered capital
structure of the firm
• “The ‘safest’ place for any firm to be is close to the industry
average” – Aswath Damodaran, 2015
Underlevered OverleveredSource: Bloomberg, Pelindo III Audited FS 2014
*estimated figures Q1 2015
ICT INTL CONTAINER TERM SVCS INC
ATI ASIAN TERMINALS INC
NWS NWS HOLDINGS
NP NINGBO PORT CO LTD-A
SCW SHENZHEN CHIWAN WHARF HLDG-B
JP JINZHOU PORT CO LTD-B
AP ADANI PORTS AND SPECIAL ECON
CP COSCO PACIFIC LTD
HPH HUTCHISON WHAMPOA LTD
POT PORT OF TAURANGA LTD
HHL HAMBURGER HAFEN UND LOGISTIK
DPW DP WORLD LTD
WS WILSON SONS LTD-BDR
PSI MPA SINGAPORE
P II* PELINDO II
P III* PELINDO III
ICT INTL CONTAINER TERM SVCS INC
ATI ASIAN TERMINALS INC
NWS NWS HOLDINGS
NP NINGBO PORT CO LTD-A
SCW SHENZHEN CHIWAN WHARF HLDG-B
JP JINZHOU PORT CO LTD-B
AP ADANI PORTS AND SPECIAL ECON
CP COSCO PACIFIC LTD
HPH HUTCHISON WHAMPOA LTD
POT PORT OF TAURANGA LTD
HHL HAMBURGER HAFEN UND LOGISTIK
DPW DP WORLD LTD
WS WILSON SONS LTD-BDR
PSI MPA SINGAPORE
P II* PELINDO II
P III* PELINDO III
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Chapter VIFinancing Alternatives Analysis
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Financing method: Debt vs EquityAdvantages Disadvantages
Debt
Equity
• Tax Benefit: Interest expenses on debt are tax deductible but cash flows
to equity are generally not
Implication: The higher the marginal tax rate, the greater the benefits of
debt
• Added Discipline: Borrowing money may force managers to think about
the consequences of the investments decisions a little more carefully and
reduce bad investments.
• Relatively low and limited control via restrictions from lenders / debt
holders
• Controllable period: Debt can be short term or long term and business
relationship ends once repayment is made.
• Higher cash flow exposure for debt service
• Currency risk
• Collateral requirement
• Expected Bankruptcy Cost: The expected cost of going bankrupt is a
product of the probability of going bankrupt and the cost of going bankrupt.
The probability will be higher in businesses with more volatile earnings.
• Agency Costs: Actions that benefit equity investors may hurt lenders. The
greater the potential for this conflict of interest, the greater the cost borne by
the borrower (as higher interest rates or more covenants)
• Loss of Flexibility of using up available debt capacity today vs in the future.
Implication: (i) Firms that can forecast future funding needs better should be
able to borrow more (ii) Firms with better access to capital markets should be
more willing to borrow more today.
• Less risk exposures to cash flow for debt service, currency, collateral
• Lower bankruptcy risk: No requirement to pay back the investment
• Added credibility: taping into Investor’s networks (public/private and
strategic)
• Synergical value integration from strategic equity investor
• No Tax Benefit from the tax deductible interest expenses of debt
instruments
• Lost of ownership control (voting rights): equity investor will have
voting rights in the firm’s decision making process
• Lost of percentage of profits
35
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Comparison among instruments
• Capacity • Allows large issuance
size (capacity quite high,
USD500 mn – 1bn)
• Up to 100% of the debt
• Limited capacity
• up to 100% of the debt,
subject to eligibility criteria
• Unlimited, depending on
negotiation and ownership
portion threshold
• Unlimited, depending on capital structure
goals & control appetite of existing
shareholders
• minimum 20% free float
• Tenor • Longer tenors, allows
Issuer to strengthen capital
• Unlikely > 10 yr
• Payment of Principal is done
throughout the life of the loan
• Max repayment of 10 years
following OECD guidelines
• No maximum period, unless
otherwise agreed e.g. Period
of Joint-cooperating
agreement
• No maximum period
• Terms &
Pricing
• 5Y rate: ~3.6%*
10Y rate: ~4.9%*
20Y rate: ~6.5%*
• Depend on benchmark with
same tenor (US treasury)
• Fixed Coupon rate, no
provision costs
• 7Y rate: ~5%
• Relatively hard to secure
fixed interest rate level
• During rising inflation levels,
loan interest rates tend to be
more expensive than bond
coupon payments
• Better terms & pricing of
financing compared with
traditional financing
• Varied, depending on
negotiation and agreement
between parties
• Price may depend upon equity
premium level of the strategic
investor
• Based on bookbuilding (market’s appetite
and sentiment)
• Processing
time
• Around 3-4 months for
Bonds, using audited
financial statement
• Complicated procedure and
documentatons
• Relatively faster process
(Decision on size of loan and
interest rate charged is done
internally within the Bank)
• Easier negotiation on
structure (with 1 Party)
• Around 3-5 months
• Relatively less complicated
compared to bond issuance
• Less complicated,
depending on parties involved
in the financing structures
• Around 3-4 months, using audited financial
statement
• Complicated procedure and documentatons
• Covenants • In general does not
required complicated and
restrictive Covenants
• Complicated and restrictive
loan covenants
• Tailor-made covenants • Tailor-made covenants • N/A, but several initial requirements need
to be fulfilled prior to listing
• Other Benefit • Increase of Pelindo III
credibility towards capital
market investors
• New funding source from
Banks
• Match of capex funding
diversification against foreign
funding sources
• No debt service obligations
(interest and repayment)
• Increase of Pelindo III credibility towards
capital market investors
• Other
Consideration
• Costs related to Issuance
of Instruments (professional
supporting parties, etc)
• Not all banks would have
appetite for port and
infrastructure financing
• Need to match sourcing • Synergical values from
strategic partner
• Depending on the structure,
may cause less ownership
control
• Less ownership control - shifting from
Gov control of nation’s strategic area to
Public control
• Dividend policy
• Mandatory disclosure, listing and
maintenance costs, accounting reporting
adjustments, and other capital market
requirements
• Costs related to Issuance of Instruments
(professional supporting parties, etc)
Global Bond Commercial Bank Loan ECA General Equity Financing IPO
36
* Bloomberg as of December 2015Debt Financing Alternative
Equity Financing Alternative
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Framework for structuring financing instrument
36
Source: Aswath Damodaran, 2015
* subject to prevailing corporate law and other binding agreements (e.g. Shareholders Agreement)
The suitable financing
instrument will:
• Satisfy the optimal
capital structure
level
• Have all of the tax
advantages of debt
• While preserving
the flexibility
offered by equity
Cash flow on asset/project and firm’s financial capacity analysis
DurationCurrency
Risk Exposure
Effect on Inflation /
Uncertainties
Business Cyclicality
Internal financial
and operational
Debt financing characteristics
Equity financing characteristics
CertainTenor/
Maturity
Currency Mix
Fixed or Floating Rate Sensitive
Match Match*Match
• We can narrow down the suitable financing instrument by considering aspects of currency risk
exposure, duration, effect on uncertainties, growth pattern and internal financial and operational
capacity.
Specific covenants
Match Match
Existing Capital
Structure
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Cost of Capital Benchmarking
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2006 20122000 2016F 2018F2010 20142004 2020F1998 2002 2008
Debt Holder Return 4,72%
+12,43%
Bond Holder Return 5,55%
Equity Return 7,44%
Historical Cost of Equity (1999 – 2019F) Vs Cost of Debt
USD 000
IHSG
Global Bond
Commercial Loan
Equity
• To conduct comparative cost of capital analysis, we
use historical data transaction ( USD 173 Mio Up
Front Fee paid by strategic investor) in 1999 and
actual dividends paid by TPS until 2014 and
estimated dividends paid 2015 through 2019.
• Furthermore, we analyze the amount of Up-front
Fee if funded by commercial loans and bonds.
• Then we calculate investor’s returns by taking into
account the time value of money over 20 years.
• These returns are then compared with the average
return of IHSG over 17 years to see the possibility
of Capital Market Investor.
• Equity financing showed more flexibility to
business condition and has moderate cost of
capital in between of debt financing and
expected return of capital market investors
which reflected in IHSG.
• Considering overleveraged condition of Pelindo
III, equity financing is a reasonable option to
finance Pelindo III capex plan in addition to
share the risk operation in TPS.
Equity Financing : Termination Cost Payment
Debt Financing (Bond) : Principle Payment
Source: Bank Indonesia publication, RJPP 2015-2019 and IPC global bond.
INDEX
38
Type of Financing Interest Rate USD Return/Yield/IRR
Commercial Loan (Tenor 10 Yr) 5.00% 4.72%
Bond (Tenor 20 Yr) 6.50% 6.72%
Equity Financing (Paid Up Up Front Fee in 1999) n/a 7.44%
IHSG Benchmarking n/a 12.43%
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Optimal capital structure waterfall
38
Source: Aswath Damodaran, 2015
* We do not perform analysis on Pelindo III’s projects feasibility
Is the actual debt ratio greater than or lesser than the optimal debt ratio?
Actual > Optimal
Overlevered
Actual < Optimal
Underlevered
Actual Pelindo III = D/E 1.3x
Debt/EBITDA 2.84x
Optimal (industry) = D/E 0.57x
Debt/EBITDA 1.92x
Is the firm under bankrupty threat?
Yes No
Reduce Debt Quickly
1. Debt/equity swap
2. Sell Assets; use cash to
pay off debt
3. Renegotiate with lenders
Feasibility of firm’s
projects? Are the:
1. ROE > Cost of Equity?
2. IRR > Cost of Capital?
Is the firm a takeover target?
Yes No
Increase Leverage Quickly
1. Debt/equity swap
2. Borrow money & buy
shares
Feasibility of firm’s
projects? Are the:
1. ROE > Cost of Equity?
2. IRR > Cost of Capital?
Yes
Take feasible projects
with new equity or with
retained earnings
No
1. Pay off debt with retained earnings
2. Reduce or eliminate dividens
3. Issue new equity (via PMN or
Strategic Partnership)
Yes
Take feasible projects
with new equity or with
retained earnings
No
Do your stockholders like
dividends?
Yes
Pay dividends
No
Buyback stock
Pelindo III has been mandated to serve
several Public Service Obligations
(PSO), which may not always bring
positive return to the firm*
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Pelindo III Debt vs Equity Analysis – General Assumptions
39
• During 2014 – 2019, Management of Pelindo III viewed that the
company requires a total of IDR 23.4 trillion investment for the
development of Pelindo III and its subsidiaries, including PT Terminal
Petikemas Surabaya (“TPS”), which splits into USD and IDR with
proportion of 47.1% and 52.9% respectively. This proportion is
calculated from capex data in the company’s 2016 annual budget plan
(RKAP) and we use this as a proportion reference for the remaining
projected years.
• In its approved 5 years long term plan, Management of Pelindo III
forecasts the need of a total of additional IDR 8.5 trillion in order to
finance the capex until the end of contract period in 2019. Pelindo III
then divided the financing into two phases:
• We performed financial covenants analysis based on RJPP for Pelindo
III provided by Management until FY2019 to analyse whether the
covenants will be breached if the additional financing is derived from
bank loan or bond. We did not perform any review on projection
assumption in RJPP.
Financial Ratio Covenants Analysis in Pelindo III
2015 F 2016 F 2017 F 2018 F 2019 F
Loan withdrawn
(IDR million) - 4,000,000 4,500,000 - -
Ref: Appendix B - page 24-25
• Below are the four financing alternatives based on the source
of financing with their respective currencies as follows:
• The total additional loan raised for all scenarios is IDR 8.5
trillion.
• Below are the details of interest rate we assume for each
source of financing:
• Following RJPP, no loan repayment is assumed in all scenarios
for period 2015-2019.
Source: Bank Indonesia publication, RJPP 2015-2019 and IPC global bond.
Scenarios USD IDR
Scenario 1 Global Bond Corporate Bond
Scenario 2 Global Bond Commercial loan
Scenario 3 Commercial Loan Corporate Bond
Scenario 4 Commercial Loan Commercial loan
Interest rates USD IDR Source
1 . Corporate Bond N.A. 1 0.0%Av erage interest from
comparable companies bond
2. Global Bond 5.4% N.A.Pelindo II Global Bond interest
benchmark
3 . Commercial Loan 4.99% 1 1 .5%Av erage interest from
commercial banks
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Financial Sustainability
40
List of existing interest bearing liabilities at
Pelindo III level according Management and
RJPP 2015-2019
− Export Credit Agency (“ECA”)
• Facility A: USD 62,913,953
• Facility B: USD 58,327,918
• Total facility of USD 121,241,871
− Global bond
• Total facility of USD 500,000,000
− Leverage: Net debt/EBITDA
• maximum of 3.00 x (refer to ECA agreement page 52 and
ECA amendment page 4)
− Gearing: Net debt/equity
• maximum of 2.00 x (refer to ECA agreement page 53)
− Interest coverage: EBITDA/Debt service
• minimum of 3.00 x (refer to ECA agreement page 52)
− Debt service coverage: EBITDA/Finance charges
and scheduled repayments of borrowings
• minimum of 1.25 x (refer to ECA agreement page 52)
Pelindo III’s current global bond does not have financial
ratio covenants.
In order to maintain financial sustainability and resilient balance sheet, Pelindo III needs to manage its debt on
a healthy level in accordance with the existing financial policy and covenants.
ECA Financial Covenants
Global bond Financial Covenants
Ref: Appendix B - page 26
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Financial Covenants
41
Scenario 1: Global bond (USD) and Corporate bond (IDR)
Ref: Appendix B - page 28
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Financial Covenants
42
Scenario 2: Global bond (USD) and Commercial loan (IDR)
Ref: Appendix B - page 29
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Financial Covenants
43
Scenario 3: Commercial loan (USD) and Corporate bond (IDR)
Ref: Appendix B - page 30
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Financial Covenants
44
Scenario 4: Commercial loan (USD and IDR)
Ref: Appendix B - page 31
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Covenants Summary – Debt Financing Scenario
45
ECA financial covenants breach summary
Leverage:
Net Debt/
EBITDA
Gearing:
Net Debt/
Equity
Interest
coverage
Debt service
coverage
Scenario 1: Global bond (USD) and Corporate bond
(IDR) Yes No No No
Scenario 2: Global bond (USD) and Commercial loan
(IDR) Yes No No No
Scenario 3: Commercial loan (USD) and Corporate
bond (IDR) Yes No No No
Scenario 4: Commercial loan (USD and IDR) Yes No No No
Source: RJPP and PwC analysis
• It is evident from the table above that under all debt fnancing
scenarios, Pelindo III will breach Net debt/EBITDA covenant during
FY 2016 due to additional funds required for the capex.
• As we have not done a monthly calculation, we do not analyse the
date or month when the covenants will be breached. If
Management could not raise the financing timely, Management
needs to manage the cash flow (e.g. by delaying capex, cost
efficiency, etc.).
• This covenant will also be breached if no additional debt is
raised and capex is reduced. Net debt/EBITDA ratio also
indicates the financial performance of the company. The high level
of Net debt/EBITDA of Pelindo III shows the company has weak
financial performance, thus it is important for Pelindo III to be able
to manage this ratio.
Ref: Appendix B - page 27
• This indicates that, in the debt financing scenario, Pelindo III
needs an equity injection (e.g. through Penyertaan Modal
Negara/PMN/ Government equity injection) for the total of
needed funds or renegotiation of covenants (including
obtaining waiver) with loan issuer.
• Other possible scenario to raise financing (partly) is by continuing
the joint operation agreement which assumed the upfront fee to be
received in 2016.
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Chapter VIIEquity Financing -Strategic Option of Joint-Operating Agreement Extension
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47
A B
Pelindo III will not
continue the existing
agreement with DPW
and operate themselves
from 2019 onwards.
Self operate Joint operate
Pelindo III will have a
new agreement from
2019 onwards.
• These scenarios have not considered managing political and/or regulatory
approvals aspects, but strictly on commercial basis.
• Each scenarios should be covered with legal opinion from independent legal
counsel.
2015 2019 2039
Self-Operate
ASelf Operate
TPS
(joint-operate with DPW)
2015 2019
Joint-Operate
B
2039
Existing / New Agreement(joint-operate with existing / new
partner)
Strategic OptionsWe examine two strategic options: Self Operate and Joint Operate scenarios. In Self Operate, it is assumed that Pelindo III will not
extend its JOA of TPS with Dubai Port World (“DPW”) which is to expire in 2019. In Joint Operate, Pelindo III will continue to joint
operate in 2019.
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Option A: Self Operate
48
Pros
• Avoid paying equity returns to
international operator after 2019 (but
this only applies if Pelindo III believes
international operator would not
deliver better financial performance);
• Full control of dividend disbursement.
Cons
• High transaction costs (repurchase of
fixed assets from TPS);
• No external investor to fund the
capex. Issues whether Pelindo III’s
own cash flow enough to finance the
capex or Pelindo III need to find
external source of fund, such as loans
or bonds (involves interest payment);
• Possible debt covenant issues of raise
financing from third parties (subject to
bank loan, bond agreements and
other contractual agreements
• Pelindo III remains exposed to full
commercial risk.
Ref: Appendix B - page 18
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Option B: Joint-Operate (1/2)
49
Pros
• Avoid buyback costs (repurchase of
fixed assets from TPS);
• Financial commitment to ensure
strong financial capacity of Pelindo III
to fulfil capex plan requirement;
• Benefit of a contract with a global
operator;
• Availability of fund: obtain the upfront
fee to finance the capex;
• Pelindo III is partly protected from
commercial risk;
• Preserve debt capacity.
Benefits which Management sees of a
cooperation with a global operator
• Access to international best practices
and knowledge transfer;
• Relationships with global shipping
companies;
• Accountability and monitoring of
terminal management by global board
with more experience and an ability to
benchmark performance around the
world;
• Financial discipline and controls
imposed by international investors
and global banks
• Financial transparency due to due
diligence carried out at time of bidding
for/signing contract;
• Education for safety and security of
business process (international
standards/best practice).
Cons
• Dividend payment to operator will still
exist after 2019;
• Less flexibility in dividend
disbursement.
Ref: Appendix B - page 19
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Option B: Joint-Operate (2/2)
50
Potential benefits in the future of a
cooperation with a global operator
• Use of latest technology and systems;
• Better global market knowledge;
• Purchasing power with suppliers.
Ref: Appendix B - page 20
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Chapter VIIIIncremental CashflowAnalysis
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52
Scenario Comparison (1/3)
SELF OPERATE JOINT OPERATE
Notes:
- This assumes continuation of joint operation agreement with
similar terms
- Also pays transaction costsRef: Appendix B - page 11
Bank
Partner
Pelindo III
TPS
Partner
Pelindo III
TPS
Royalty,
annual payment,
and dividend
Royalty,
annual payment,
and dividend
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53
Scenario Comparison (2/3)
Upfront fee
(“UPF”)
Royalty and
annual payment
“Asset Buyback”
Transaction Cost
Capex
“Share Buyback”
Option A –
Self operation
Option B –
Continue joint operation*
Indicative (USD 250mn
equivalent pre-tax), proposed
by Pelindo III Management*
Authorization Agreement and
DPW proposal
Calculated payment for
shares based on the
Authorization Agreement
Benchmark of the similar
transaction
TPS, reviewed by BMT
Shareholder Agreement
Source of information
Management fee
to partner
Management information
(indicative)
Finance for Pelindo
III Capex
Debt amount to follow upfront
fees amount. Interest rates
based on benchmarking.
N.A.Nil because the
agreement has run full
term in 2019
1.0% of the upfront
feeN.A.
N.A. IDR 2.9 trillion (post
tax)
IDR 834,979 million
in 2019
Funded from upfront
fee + interest saving
IDR 2.9 trillion debt raised
(post tax UPF) + interest
payment
USD 31,200 fixed per month
until 2019 and N.A. after 2019
Notes:
• N.A = Not applicable
• For the purpose of calculation
assumptions for option B, we
assume DPW will continue the joint
operation.
• Tax impact has been provisionally
estimated in the financial model,
but proper tax review needs to
occur.
• The amount of debt raised for Self
operate scenario is assumed equal
to post-tax upfront fee received in
Joint operate scenario to ensure
comparability.
• The interest rates assumed are
4.99% for USD commercial loan
and 11.5% for IDR commercial
loan. 5 years repayment is
assumed.
• Upfront fee may changes subject to
further negotiation and tender
process. Any deviation from this
amount will impact our analysis.
• All figures are indicative, subject
to further review, discussion,
negotiation and all required
process and approvals.
USD 2.8 mil + 10% of gross
revenue. Net off within
consolidated cash flow.
Same for both scenarios Same for both scenarios
USD 31,200 fixed
per month
Dividend to
partner
TPS Management proposal
based on average historical
formula
49% of 80% of net income of
TPS, or the available free cash
flow whichever is lower until 2040,
plus 49% of the remaining cash
balance at the end of 2040.
-
+
-
-
-49% of 80% of net income of
TPS, or the available free cash
flow, whichever is lower until
2019, plus 49% of the remaining
cash balance at the end of 2019.
-
USD 2.8 mil + 10% of gross
revenue. Net off within
consolidated cash flow.
IDR 652,827 million
in 2040-
Ref: Appendix B - page 12
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54
Scenario Comparison (3/3)
Capex of Pelindo III is funded by the upfront fee
which gives interest savings to the company, as
the company reduces its USD loan. For
simplicity purposes, interest saving is only for
one year. We have not calculated the monthly
calculation for interest saving.
In Self Operate scenario, the company needs
additional financing to fund the capex of
Pelindo III.1,513,167 1,369,833
-1,513,167 -1,369,833
-
-51,040 -134,389 -140,976 -92,869 -46,311 -11,419
(2,000,000)
(1,500,000)
(1,000,000)
(500,000)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash
flo
w (
IDR
Millio
n)
Period
Self Operate
Cash inflow from borrowings Capex Interest payment
2,883,000
-1,513,167 -1,369,833
57,756
(2,000,000)
(1,500,000)
(1,000,000)
(500,000)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash
flo
w(I
DR
Millio
n)
Period
Continue Joint Operate
Cash inflow from upfront fee Capex Interest savings
Ref: Appendix B - page 13
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55
Net Present Value Sensitivity Analysis
• NPV is shown as a range for each sensitivity
case due to the use of discount rates range
(low and high)
• From the sensitivity analysis, joint operation
contributes higher NPV compared to self
operation in most scenarios.
• This is principally contributed by upfront fee
received in 2016. If the upfront fee is lower
than assumed, it will affect the analysis
result. In our current analysis for sensitivity 1
and 2, any upfront fee less than USD 203
million or IDR 3.1 trillion will result in NPV of
joint operate scenario to be lower than self
operate scenario.
• The major NPV difference for scenario 3 to 4
is due to the assumption of the same upfront
fee as other joint operate scenarios, with
lower dividend paid due to lower net income.
• The NPV difference from scenario 1 to 5 will
be much higher than the delta from 2 to 6 in
the case of greater revenue shortfall and
cost increment. This is due to joint
operations scenario which have the same
upfront fee even when revenue is reduced or
cost is increased. But in self operate
scenario, Pelindo III loses a lot more
dividend income if revenue is reduced or
cost is increased.
• BMT revenue and capex
• Projected operating expenses based on
average historical % from revenue,
overhead expense based on inflationhead
expense based on inflation
• BMT revenue and capex
• Projected operating expenses based on
average historical % from revenue,
overhead expense based on inflationhead
expense based on inflation
• BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation
(higher cost than no. 1)
• BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation
(higher cost than no. 2)
• Revenue is lower by 2% than no. 1
• Overhead cost is higher by 2% than no. 1
• Revenue is lower by 2% than no. 2
• Overhead cost is higher by 2% than no. 2
• Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs
(enabling higher net income)
• Other follows no. 1
• Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs
(enabling higher net income)
• Other follows no. 2
Joint OperateSelf Operate
1
3
5
7
2
4
6
8
4,418
5,006
3,053
4,233
4,293
4,948
4,679
5,129
3,053
4,233
4,946
5,334
3,416
4,462
4,803
5,267
5,248
5,478
5,248
5,478
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Overall self operate range
Overall joint operaterange
NPV (IDR in billion)
Se
ns
itiv
ity
NPV of incremental cash flow to Pelindo III comparison
Legend:
Self operate
Joint operate
Ref: Appendix B - page 17
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Incremental FCF Analysis - Conclusion
56
• Based on incremental FCFE analysis, Joint operate scenario
contributes higher NPV than the Self operate scenario.
• In the Self operate scenario, the Government owns 100% of
the risk in Pelindo III’s investment projects. In the Joint operate
scenario, TPS will have access to DPW or other partner’s
global experience of delivering many such projects.
• In the Joint operate scenario, Pelindo III has less flexibility in
setting the dividend policy as it must be agreed by both parties,
however, it will be more flexible for Self operate scenario.
• Moreover, Pelindo III is protected from commercial risk in Joint
operate scenario by having the risk shared to both parties.
• For self operate scenario, the possibility to raise capex finance
from bank loan or bond could be prohibited by ECA covenant
breach unless consent/waiver is received from Deutsche Bank
London.
Disclaimer:
1. We did not perform any review on BMT or Management
assumptions;
2. We assume average loan balance to calculate interest
expense;
3. Working capital is calculated based on accounts receivable,
accounts payable and inventory calculated by Management in
RJPP. We did not perform any review on those accounts;
4. Upfront fee is assumed to be received in 2016. The amount of
upfront fee is uncertain, however, Management estimates an
upfront fee of USD 250 million (indicative);
5. The free cash flow from TPS PTD 2015-FY 2019 is not
summed in the incremental cash flow in Pelindo III as
according to Management this refers to the previous
cooperation period;
6. Our working model and analysis are based on data and
assumption as of now and still subject to change upon receipt
of additional information and assumption, as well as further
review, discussion, negotiation and required approvals.
Ref: Appendix B - page 21
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Chapter IXConclusion
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Conclusion: Debt vs Equity Financing for Pelindo III
58
• Strategic
Expansion Plan
• Pelindo III requires a total of targeted IDR 23,35 trillion to execute its strategic
expansion plan and immediately address its fundamental issues • Yes • Yes
• Operational
Risks
Management
• In order to manage operational risks, Pelindo III requires both funding and
strong partner. • Not possible • Yes
• Execution of PSO • As an SOE, Pelindo III is also part of the “agent of development” and has
been mandated to execute several PSO projects, which may bring low returns
to the firm.• Yes • Yes, via PMN
• Financial
Sustainability
• In order to maintain resilient balance sheet, Pelindo III needs to sustain its
debt management on a healthy level. Under all Debt Financing scenarios,
Pelindo III will breach Net debt/EBITDA covenant by raising additional debt. • Not possible • Yes
• Currency
Mismatch
• While capex and interest services require USD funding, revenue stream of the
firm is still mainly IDR denominated. In addition, BI regulation restricts Pelindo
III to purchase USD• Yes, in USD • Yes, in USD
Equity Financing
Requirement and Feasibility
Debt Financing Requirement
and Feasibility
Equity financing, from PMN or continuation of existing joint-operating agreement, is the
more feasible alternative to satisfy Pelindo III financing requirements
Requirement Feasibility Requirement Feasibility
We did not perform any legal due diligence / review in the making of this report. This report does not consider any legal analysis and
implications that may otherwise impact the above conclusion.
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FINAL REPORT | STRATEGIC REVIEW ON FINANCING STRATEGY OF PELINDO III | 23 DESEMBER 2015
Conclusion: Self-Operate vs Joint-Operate for Pelindo III
59
• Availability of fund• With regard to improvement and expansion plan, Pelindo III requires
immediate fund inflows to meet the funding requirements
• Asset Buyback
• Based on the Authorization Agreement for the Operation and Maintenance
of TPS between Pelindo III and TPS, Pelindo III is obligated to repurchase
asset from TPS
• Benefits from
Partnerhip with
Global Operator
• Access to international best practices and knowledge transfer;
Relationships with global shipping companies; Better global market
knowledge; Purchasing power with suppliers
• Operational Control • Pelindo III retains control over TPS operations
• Ownership &
Dividend Control• Pelindo III obtains full dividend payment portion
Joint-OperateSelf-Operate
Equity financing via continuation of existing joint-operating agreement is the more
favorable alternative to satisfy Pelindo III financing requirements
Favorability Favorability
We did not perform any legal due diligence / review in the making of this report. This report does not consider any legal analysis and
implications that may otherwise impact the above conclusion.
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Appendix ABMT Report
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1 Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015
Technical Commercial Assessments of the TPS
Concession, Indonesia
Final Report
Date: 22 Dec 2015
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 2 Date: 22 Dec 2015 2
Contents
0 Introduction
1 Throughput Forecast
2 Alternative Option
2.1 Productivity Analysis I
2.2 Productivity Analysis II
3 Capacity Plan Assessment
4 Tariff and Cost Estimates
5 Conclusion
Appendix A – DPW Forecast Review
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 3
Objective
Background
Located on the northern shore of eastern Java, TPS is currently the main container terminal of Surabaya Port. The Port is the
gateway to eastern Java, and it plays a critical role in serving the trade flows within Surabaya and beyond.
0. Introduction
Project Objective
To support in the process of considering the
potential renewal of the TPS concession,
emphasising the commercial and technical
aspects.
Focuses of the Study include:
• Market Potential and Competition
• Traffic Forecasting
• Productivity and Capacity
• Development and Expansion Plans
• Tariffs and Costs
TPS (within Surabaya Port)
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 4 Date: 22 Dec 2015 4
Report Structure
This report contains five key sections structured as follows:
0. Introduction
3. Capacity Plan
Assessment
• Infrastructure & Facilities
• Appropriateness
• Timeline
1. Throughput Forecast
• Historical Throughput
Review
• Market Growth Drivers
• Regional Port Competition
• Intra Terminals and
Shares
• Expansion Plan and
Implications
• Forecast Assumptions and
Results
2. Productivity Analysis
• TPS vs. International &
Regional Ports
- Benchmarking Portfolio
- Productivity
Comparison
• TPS vs. Pelindo III Self
Operated Ports
- Productivity
Comparison
- Summary
4. Tariff and Cost
Estimates
• References
• Costing Review 5. Conclusion
• Reasonability?
• Best interest for PP3?
Cargo Demand
Forecast Alternative Option
Concession Plan
Review Conclusion
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 5 Date: 22 Dec 2015 5
Throughput Forecast
1. Throughput Forecast
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 6 Date: 22 Dec 2015 6
The forecast was conducted using “Top-down” approach through assessing the demand trends of Tanjung Perak and then its
subordinate terminals.
Approach
1. Throughput Forecast
Throughput Forecast Flow
Tanjung Perak
Throughput Forecast
TPS shares
estimation
TPS Throughput
Forecast
.
Figure 1.1 Review Approach Key steps in the forecast review include:
• Review the historical throughput of Tanjung Perak
• Analyse hinterland economy and growth trends
• Review the historical throughput and shares of
TPS and other terminals
• Assess the development / expansion plans
• Compare the throughput projections of Tanjung
Perak and TPS
The study approach is shown in Figure 1.1.
Literature Review
Data and information applied in the study are mainly from PP3 documents and public sources. These includes:
• Pelindo III Masterplan (Tanjung Perak Port throughput forecast 2015~2030), referred as PP3 Masterplan / PP3 Forecast
• DPW throughput forecast by terminals (2015~2040), referred as DPW Proposal / DPW Forecast
• Port capacity plan (2015~2019), prepared by DPW
• BPS Statistics for Indonesia and East Java
• IMF forecast for Indonesia Economy
• Hinterland economy
• Growth drivers and
trends
• Terminal
Capacity
• Expansion plan
BMT Forecasts
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 7
Current Status of Tanjung Perak
Robust Throughput Growths
Tanjung Perak is currently the 2nd largest port in
Indonesia. The Port handled more than 2.9 million
TEUs in 2014, with a CAGR (Compound Annual
Growth Rates) of 6% from 2006.
The port recorded a rapid growth of domestic
container throughput (i.e., 8% p.a. in the past
eight years). The growth of international container
throughput was comparatively moderate at 4%
growth p.a..
As a result, in 2014 around 54% of total container
throughput was domestic containers, leaving the
other 46% for international trades of containers.
The majority of foreign trade was direct shipment,
i.e., import / export cargoes.
Tanjung Perak covers two tiers of hinterland:
• Direct hinterland: East Java
• Indirect hinterland: East Indonesia and central
Java.
1. Throughput Forecast
Figure 1.2 Historical Container Throughput and Annual Growths for
Port of Tanjung Perak, 2006-2014
Source: Pelindo III (PP3)
Figure 1.3 Hinterland of Tanjung Perak
Source: BMT
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 8
Hinterland Economy Overview
Economic Conditions
In 2013, East Java had the a Gross Regional
Domestic Product (GRDP) of IDR 1,136 trillion, the
2nd highest in Indonesia. The Province kept a high
speed growth in the last 5 years with an average
growth rate of 6.5% p.a., slightly above the national
average level of 0.5% p.a..
Kota Surabaya, where Tanjung Perak locates in,
is the economic and industrial centre of East Java.
The city contributed a steady 30% to East Java
GRDP.
Agricultural and chemical industries accounted for
90% of the production value in East Java. Metals,
machines, textiles and miscellaneous industries
made up 9% of the production output.
The industry structure of East Java is relatively
concentrated on lower value-added industries,
leading to a comparatively low container
generation level at present. However, with the
industrialisation and urbanisation, more high value-
added industries and containerised cargo are
expected.
1. Throughput Forecast
Figure 1.4 GRDP by Provinces (Current Prices), 2013
Figure 1.5 East Java Share of Production Value by Industry, 2013
Source: BPS Indonesia
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 9
Economic Growth Leads to Increasing Cargo Trade Demand
GDP vs TEU
It is widely acknowledged that the growth of cargo
trade is mainly driven by the urbanisation and
economic developments.
To measure the relationship of generated traffic
and the hinterland economy, an indicator called
Traffic to GDP Growth Ratio was introduced. This
indicator represents a multiplier effect that for 1%
GDP growth how much percent of container traffic
growth can be triggered.
With adequate logistics infrastructure (incl. both
water and land sides) provided, the Traffic to GDP
Growth Ratio could be around 2.0 to 2.5 times (for
world top 20 container ports), as shown in Figure
1.6. As a reference, the existing ratio of JICT is
around 1.5 times.
In the case of Tanjung Perak, this ratio was about
1.1 times, much lower than the international and
regional standard. This may be due to a plausible
shortage of logistics infrastructures. It also implies
that provided with more handling capacity, Tanjung
Perak could embrace a steadily increasing
cargo demand in the future.
1. Throughput Forecast
Sources: BPS Indonesia & PP3
Figure 1.7 Traffic to GDP Growth Ratio at Tanjung Perak
Figure 1.6 Traffic to GDP Growth Ratio at World Top 20 Container Ports
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 10
BMT’s Throughput Forecast of Tanjung Perak
Forecast Approach
A top-down approach is adopted for the throughput
forecast of Tanjung Perak (See Figure 1.8).
For the purpose of long-term forecasting it is necessary
to use simplified relationships, as many of the causal
variables are harder to predict than throughput itself. Of
all the economic indicators that can be used for
forecasting container throughput, GDP is considered
most suitable.
The future growth of container throughput can be
estimated by hinterland economic growth
(represented by GDP) multiplied by the projected
Traffic to GDP Growth Ratio.
The rationale to apply this approach is to capture not
only the trend of economic growth, but also the
potential implications of industrialisation, port
competition, and logistics maturity. This includes the
upcoming full operation of Teluk Lamong (Lamong)
and connectivity enhancement initiatives / projects (incl.
“maritime highway”) in the future.
1. Throughput Forecast
Hinterland Economic Growth
Indonesian Economy
East Java Economy
GDP Growth Rate
• Existing and future national GDP
forecasted by macro-economic think
tanks such as IMF.
• East Java GDP derived based on its
elasticity with national GDP.
• GDP growth in East Java is
estimated to be 5.5% to 7.0% p.a..
Traffic to GDP Growth Ratio
Existing Traffic to
GDP Growth Ratio
• Based on historical traffic of
Tanjung Perak and East Java
GDP data.
Expanded Capacity
of Port Infrastructure
• New ports / terminals established
lower the logistics costs and hence
cost for cargo trade in the hinterland
Figure 1.8 Forecast Approach
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 11
BMT’s Throughput Forecast of Tanjung Perak (cont.)
Adjustments for Non-economic Factors
Pendulum Nusantara (also referred as “Hub &
Spoke”) is being developed with the aim to increase
the shipping flow from East to West and vice-versa by
connecting the six economic corridors identified in
MP3EI (2011). For this Pendulum to be successful, the
Government planned to improve channel accessibility,
terminal capacity and related infrastructure for all
gateway ports identified. In Surabaya,
• physical conditions of the water channel will be
improved by dredging
• terminal infrastructure and capacity will be
increased
• infrastructure network will be improved which will
expand the handling capacity, and hence lower the
logistics costs of trading in East Java.
1. Throughput Forecast
Surabaya is already the major gateway of East Java and having the Pendulum policy will further strengthen the strong position of
Surabaya as a whole. As a result, the cargo trade in the hinterland will be further stimulated, boosting the Traffic to GDP growth level.
With references to regional ports, it is assumed that the traffic to GDP ratio at Tanjung Perak will start from the existing 1.1 times and
gradually grow to about 1.5 times in five years. And the growth will be stabilised when it approach its capacity.
Figure 1.9 Pendulum Network
Source: World Bank
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 12
BMT’s Throughput Forecast of Tanjung Perak (cont.)
1. Throughput Forecast
Forecast Results
Based on the IMF forecast and historical GDP
growth of East Java, a 5.5% to 7.0% of annual
GDP growth rate is applied in the forecast.
In line with the historical trend, domestic cargo is
expected to grow faster than international cargo.
Based on the above-mentioned market trends and
assumptions, the results market demand forecast at
Tanjung Perak are:
• The throughput of Tanjung Perak is expected to
reach 4.6 million TEUs in 2020 and 9.3 million
TEUs in 2030.
• Growth rates of Tanjung Perak container
throughput are expected to range from 5.0% to
9.0% during 2015 to 2040.
• Domestic trade is expected to continue to be
the major contributor to Tanjung Perak’s
throughput.
Throughput
(mn TEUs) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040
International 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 3.3
Domestic 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.9 14.9
Total 3.1 4.6 6.7 9.3 18.3
Figure 1.10 Tanjung Perak Throughput Forecast Results
Source: BMT
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
20
15
20
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20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
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20
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mn
TEU
s
International Domestic
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 13
Historical Throughput by Terminals
Key Container Terminals
There are 5 key container terminals of Tanjung
Perak, namely:
• TPS (international and domestic; international
concentrated)
• BJTI (international and domestic; became solely
domestic in 2015)
• Jamrud & Mirah (solely domestic; will be closed
by 2017)
• Nilam (solely domestic), and
• Lamong (international and domestic).
Currently, TPS is the dominant container terminal at
Tanjung Perak, accounting for a steady 90% of total
international container throughput of Tanjung Perak.
The share of TPS’s domestic trades was declining
from 16% in 2007 to 12% in 2014, mainly due to the
development of other terminals such as Nilam.
1. Throughput Forecast
Figure 1.11 Shares of International Trade at Key Terminals of Tanjung Perak
Source: DPW Traffic Data for 2007 to 2014
Figure 1.12 Shares of Domestic Trade at Key Terminals of Tanjung Perak
68% 64%57% 54% 49% 50% 51% 49%
16% 19%26% 25%
19% 18% 18% 16%
16% 16% 18% 18%
13% 14% 13%12%
3%19% 18% 18%
18%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BJTI Mirah/Jamrud TPS Nilam Lamong
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 14
Demand Supply Balance
Terminal Development Plans
To understand future demand and supply
situation of Tanjung Perak, the existing and future
handling capacity of TPS and other key terminals of
Tanjung Perak have been assessed.
In particular, the commencement of Lamong
terminal and new terminals is expected to be the
supporting terminals to TPS and absorb additional
cargo demand spilled over from TPS.
The PP3 Master Plan shows the capacity plan up to
2030. In summary,
• TPS capacity will only have marginal increase, if
any, due to the land issue.
• Lamong will become another key terminal with
capacity increasing from 0.75 million TEUs in
2020 to 4.5 million TEUs in 2030.
• New terminals such as Manyar may be
established in the medium to long term.
1. Throughput Forecast
Capacity Plan
(mn TEUs) Existing 2016 2018 2020 2030
TPS 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.5
BJTI 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.8
Lamong 0.75 0.75 1.5 1.5 4.5
Others, e.g., Manyar 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9
Total 4.1 4.1 4.8 5.7 9.7
Figure 1.13 Capacity Plan at Key Terminals of Tanjung Perak
Source: The Master Plan of Tanjung Perak Port, DPW Proposal
* Note: The capacity of container cargo at Manyar is not shown in PP3 Masterplan. For the sake of
analysis, around half of the quay length and hence capacity is assumed for container cargo.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030
mn
TE
Us
TPS BJTI Lamong Others BMT Forecasted Throughput
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 15
BMT Initial Throughput Forecast of TPS
Forecast Approach
The forecast of TPS container throughput considers
(see Figure 1.14):
• Existing market share and volume of
international and domestic cargo respectively
• Expansion plans of TPS and other terminals
• Utilisation level of TPS and other terminals
The derived throughput at TPS will then be brought
forward to compare against its design capacity.
With no further expansion in the medium to long
term, the throughput at TPS will be stablised.
1. Throughput Forecast
Capacity Plan Historical market
shares of terminals
Forecast of TPS Market Share
Domestic Cargo International Cargo
Market Share and Capacity Plan
Tanjung Perak Throughput Forecast
TPS Throughput
Figure 1.14 Forecast Approach
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 16
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
TPS Throughput Forecast
BMT Throughput Forecast of TPS (cont.)
Key Assumptions and Forecast Results
The following assumptions are applied in the TPS
forecast.
It is assumed that the existing cargo of TPS will
sustain and grow with the hinterland economy,
additional demand will be spilled over to new
terminals when TPS faces capacity constraints.
Growth rate for international and domestic
throughput of TPS is in line with that of Tanjung
Perak throughput forecast.
Due to port operation efficiency and yard
constraints, it is assumed that utilisation of TPS
cannot reach 100%.
Taking references from JICT and other world
leading terminals, it is assumed that TPS can
reach 85% to 90% utilisation in the long term.
The results show that TPS is expected to handle 1.7
million TEUs in 2020, which is expected to reach
2.2 million TEUs in the long term.
1. Throughput Forecast
Figure 1.15 Throughput Forecast of TPS, mn TEUs
Source: BMT Estimate
• Throughput at TPS
stablises in the long term.
• The existing cargo of
TPS will sustain and
grow.
• Lamong will realise 1.6
million TEU of capacity in
2023, when TPS reaches
high utilisation (~90%).
Therefore, it is expected that
Lamong will dilute some
shares in 2023.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 17 Date: 22 Dec 2015 17
Summary
Forecast of Tanjung Perak
Throughput
The throughput of Tanjung Perak is
expected to reach 4.6 million TEUs in
2020 and 9.3 million TEUs in 2030.
The growth rates of Tanjung Perak
container throughput are expected to
range from 5.0% to 9.0% during 2015 to
2040.
Forecast of TPS Throughput
TPS is expected to handle 1.7 million
TEUs in 2020, which is expected to
reach 2.2 million TEUs in the long
term.
The growth rate for international and
domestic throughput of TPS is in line
with that of Tanjung Perak throughput
forecast.
1. Throughput Forecast
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 18 Date: 22 Dec 2015 18
Alternative Option (Self-operation vs. Joint Operation)
2. Productivity Analysis
TPS vs. Pelindo III Self Operation
The technical assessment of whether TPS should be self or jointly operated (with strategic partners) has been reviewed from the port
productivity perspective.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 19 Date: 22 Dec 2015 19
Productivity Analysis (I) – TPS vs. International & Regional Ports
2. Productivity Analysis
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 20
Figure 2.1 General Layout of Tanjung Perak
TPS in Tanjung Perak
Key Container Terminals
As stated in Chapter 1, containers at
Tanjung Perak are mainly handled by:
• TPS;
• BJTI;
• Various terminals of conventional
terminals (i.e., Jamrud, Nilam and Mirah);
and,
• Lamong (newly launched deep water
terminal).
Due to the increasing cargoes in Tanjung
Perak over the past years, Pelindo III
decided to build Lamong; and to cluster
terminals based on cargo types.
Since 2015, BJTI has become a dedicated
terminal for domestic containers. The
international containers are handled at TPS
or Lamong.
2. Productivity Analysis
TPS BJTI Conventional Lamong
(Phase II)
Length (m) 1,450 1,620 3,780 1,000
Width (m) 45-50 15 15 30-50
Depth (m ) 8-11 7-10 6-9 13-14
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 21
Figure 2.2 DPW’s Global Port Portfolio
Productivity Benchmarking To assess the productivity of TPS, we took references of the port portfolios of DPW, HPH and PSA.
DPW’s Global Portfolio
DP World (DPW) is one the world’s major container terminal operators. It operates over 65 terminals spanning across 6
continents. In 2014, DP World handled 60 million TEUs, much of this was realised at its home base terminals in Middle East e.g.
Jebel Ali. With its continued developments and expansions, DPW’s capacity has been growing significantly in key emerging markets,
including India and China.
2. Productivity Analysis
Source: DPW official website (as of March 2015)
Benchmarking
TPS’ port terminal performance
including berth, yard and crane
productivity will be benchmarked
against other DPW’s terminals in
Asia, in view of their similarity of
geographical location, capacity,
container traffic, infrastructure and
facilities, etc.
Reference from the performance of
other world leading ports
operated by Hutchison Port
Holdings (HPH) and Port of
Singapore Authority (PSA) are
also reviewed.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 22
Productivity Benchmarking Approach
Approach
A container terminal consists of at least 2 major operational areas,
as shown in the Figure:
• Quay – operational area between quay wall and container yard
(apron or the area just behind the berth front), and
• Container yard – terminal storage/stacking area.
Amongst others, infrastructure and equipment representing high
capital investment for a container port / terminal. BMT assessed
TPS’s port capability and handling efficiency based on the
infrastructure and equipment on both quay side and yard side.
2. Productivity Analysis
Infrastructure Equipment
Yard Size of terminal area affects the
stacking height, spacing between
the container row, as well as the
types and number of handling
equipment
Yard crane – for container
transport and stacking within
the yard
Quay Berths length and draft
determines the maximum size of
vessel berthing
Quay crane – for ship to
shore operations (loading
and discharging of vessels)
Figure 2.3 Illustration of a Container Terminal
Source: BMT
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 23
Productivity Benchmarking Approach (cont.)
Benchmarking Indicators
Port performance is commonly measured in terms of throughput.
In general, how berth, yard and crane efficiency relate to port’s
throughput can be expressed by the following productivity
indicators:
• Berth Productivity – throughput per metre of berth, i.e., TEUs
handled at berth divided by total length of berths
• Terminal Area Productivity – throughput per area, i.e., TEUs
handled per hectare of yard
• Quay Crane Productivity – crane moves per hour, i.e.,
containers moved to / from a vessel per hour
• Yard Crane Productivity – throughput per yard crane.
2. Productivity Analysis
The benchmarking study was done by reviewing productivity for TPS against DPW’s terminals in Asia, the global port portfolio of
HPH and PSA’s terminals based on secondary and publicly available data including:
• Reported/published annual throughputs
• Ports’ websites and publications with port facts and figures
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 24
Berth Productivity of TPS Compared with World Leading Ports
Berth Length Productivity
The berth length productivity is defined as
throughput handled per metre of berth. This
indicator measures the overall productivity of a
terminal to transfer containers between land and
vessel. A high figure suggests that the terminal can
accommodate large vessels and TEU loads on
each vessel or it has a high number of calls per
berth.
The berth length productivity of TPS is about ~900
TEU/m. TPS currently accommodates ships with
size of ~2,500 TEU, which is relatively small
comparing with DPW’s Asian ports. As illustrated in
the Figure, TPS’s productivity is below DPW’s
Asian average (~1,500 TEU/m).
Implications
This number implies TPS is limited by the physical
conditions (such as water depth), the average size
of vessel the terminal can handle is small compared
with other Asian ports.
2. Productivity Analysis
Figure 2.4 Berth Length Productivity of DPW’s Asian Ports
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Throughput per Berth Length ('000 TEU/m)
Note: 14 major Asian container terminals operated by DPW have been selected for comparison and
ranked by their throughput handled, per metre berth length.
Source: Terminals’ official websites, China Ports Yearbook, Containerisation International Yearbook
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 25
Berth Productivity of TPS Compared with World Leading Ports (cont.)
Berth Length Productivity
TPS is further compared with global container terminals operated by HPH, as well as PSA in Singapore. TPS is ranked ~top 60%,
which is among the lower end of 2nd Tier ports.
2. Productivity Analysis
Figure 2.5 Berth Length Productivity of Global Ports
Note: 14 major Asian container terminals operated by DPW, 33 major ports operated by HPH, and PSA, have been selected for
comparison and ranked by their throughput handled, per metre berth length.
Source: Terminals’ official websites, China Ports Yearbook, Containerisation International Yearbook
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
CT,
Chin
a
CT3,
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
HIT
, H
ong
Ko
ng
SP
ICT,
Chin
a
NB
CT,
Chin
a
SIC
T,
Chin
a
PS
A, S
ing
ap
ore
PN
IT,
So
uth
Ko
rea
YIC
TL,
Chin
a
NS
ICT,
Ind
ia
Neth
erland
s
CH
T,
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
MIC
T,
Ind
ia
YIC
T,
Chin
a
LC
IT,
Thailand
SM
CT,
Chin
a
KO
JA
, In
do
nesia
CC
T,
Ind
ia
TO
CT,
Chin
a
Mexic
o
Baham
as
JIC
T,
Ind
onesia
Mala
ysia
XIC
T,
Chin
a
TP
S
Saud
i A
rab
ia
Pakis
tan
ATI, P
hilip
pin
es
Ko
rea
Eg
yp
t
Panam
a
UK
SP
CT,
Vie
tnam
Po
land
QIC
T,
Pakis
tan
ICTT,
Ind
ia
Tanzania
VC
TP
L,
Ind
ia
Thailand
Arg
entina
Om
an
Italy
Vie
tnam
Throughput per Berth Length ('000 TEU/m)
2nd Tier(~top 20-60%)
Top Tier(~top 20%)
3rd Tier(~last 40%)
Implications
Consistently, TPS is not as
productive as the average of
world’s leading ports (1st Tier),
in terms of berth length
productivity.
The “1st Tier” terminals are
mainly located in the world’s
busiest container ports, i.e.,
Hong Kong Port, Shanghai
Port and Singapore Port.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 26
Terminal Area Productivity of TPS Compared with World Leading Ports
Terminal Area Productivity
Throughput per terminal area is a measure of how
productively a terminal (or yard) is used, indicating
how intensely the yard infrastructure is used in
processing the throughput.
TPS’s terminal area is relatively productive as
compared with other Asian terminals. Its terminal
area productivity is ~35,000 TEU/Ha which is ~13%
more productive than that of DPW’s Asian
average.
Implications
The higher than Asian average throughput/area
ratio indicates TPS is in relatively more effectively
use of available terminal area.
It is noted that Hong Kong Port is particularly
productive in terms of yard area productivity. This is
mainly due to the constrained land provision and
high land costs in the area which force significant
investment in terminal systems to best use limited
land assets.
2. Productivity Analysis
Figure 2.6 Terminal Area Productivity of DPW’s Asian Ports
Note: 14 major Asian container ports operated by DPW have been selected for comparison and
ranked by their throughput handled, per terminal area.
Source: Terminals’ official websites, China Ports Yearbook, Containerisation International Yearbook
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Throughput per Terminal Area ('000 TEU/Ha)
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HIT
, H
ong
Ko
ng
CT3,
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
CH
T,
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
PS
A, S
ing
ap
ore
CC
T,
Ind
ia
YIC
TL,
Chin
a
SP
ICT,
Chin
a
CT,
Chin
a
MIC
T,
Ind
ia
TP
S
NS
ICT,
Ind
ia
Pakis
tan
PN
IT,
So
uth
Ko
rea
LC
IT,
Thailand
TO
CT,
Chin
a
YIC
T,
Chin
a
NB
CT,
Chin
a
KO
JA
, In
do
nesia
Neth
erland
s
ATI, P
hilip
pin
es
Baham
as
SIC
T,
Chin
a
JIC
T,
Ind
onesia
Saud
i A
rab
ia
Tanzania
Eg
yp
t
Mexic
o
Ko
rea
QIC
T,
Pakis
tan
Arg
entina
Po
land
SM
CT,
Chin
a
SP
CT,
Vie
tnam
Panam
a
XIC
T,
Chin
a
Mala
ysia
Thailand
VC
TP
L,
Ind
ia
UK
Om
an
Italy
ICTT,
Ind
ia
Vie
tnam
Throughput per Terminal Area ('000 TEU/Ha)
2nd Tier(~top 20-60%)
Top Tier(~top 20%)
3rd Tier(~last 40%)
Terminal Area Productivity of TPS Compared with World Leading Ports (cont.)
Terminal Area Productivity
TPS is further compared with global container terminals operated by HPH, as well as PSA in Singapore. The result shows that TPS
is ranked among the higher end of 2nd Tier ports.
2. Productivity Analysis
Figure 2.7 Terminal Area Productivity of Global Ports
Note: 14 major Asian container terminals operated by DPW, 33 major ports operated by HPH, and PSA, have been selected for
comparison and ranked by their throughput handled, per terminal area.
Source: Terminals’ official websites, China Ports Yearbook, Containerisation International Yearbook
Implications:
When compared with PSA
and HPH’s global assets, TPS
is in the top 23%.
TPS also performs
better than the major
container terminals in
Tanjung Priok (i.e.,
JICT and KOJA).
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 28
Quay Crane Productivity of TPS Compared with World Leading Ports
Quay Crane Productivity
In terms of port performance, the type of
cranes deployed for quayside operation
are important in demining how efficient a
port handles containers for shorter port
stay of the ship, by number of move per
hour (mph). Generally crane efficiency can
reduce vessel turnaround time, and
increase overall terminal productivity and
throughput.
On quayside, TPS is currently serviced by
11 single-lift cranes, with an average
performance of ~ 25 mph.
Implications
TPS performs the normal standard for a
traditional container terminal with
conventional single-lift quayside cranes
(20-25 mph), but has not reached the
premium performance (over 35 mph,
normally associated with post panamax
quay cranes).
2. Productivity Analysis
Figure 2.8 Quay Crane Productivity of International Ports (2006-2015)
Note: As far as data were made available, 37 key international ports have been selected for comparison and ranked
by their quay crane productivity.
Source: Container productivity at New Zealand ports, Ministry of Transport of New Zealand, Port Benchmarking for
Assessing Hong Kong’s Maritime Services and Associated Costs with other Major International Ports, Terminals’
official websites
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Crane Productivity (mph)
“Standard”
Performance
“Premium”
Performance
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 29
Yard Crane Productivity of TPS Compared with World Leading Ports
Yard Crane Productivity
Yard crane productivity may be
defined by the volume of throughput
over the number of gantry cranes.
The benchmark value (50,000 TEUs
per crane) was taken with reference to
the average of global network, while
the world’s more highly efficient
terminals, such as the major ports in
China and Hong Kong, are operating
at over 100,000 TEUs per crane.
TPS has 30 RTGs with an average
performance of ~ 46,000 TEUs per
crane.
Implications
TPS performs close to the standard
crane performance. This may be
influenced by the size of yard, and
size and number of vessels handled.
2. Productivity Analysis
Figure 2.9 Yard Crane Productivity of International Ports
Note: 14 major Asian container terminals operated by DPW, 33 major ports operated by HPH, and PSA, have been
selected for comparison and ranked by their throughput handled, per yard crane.
Source: Terminals’ official websites, China Ports Yearbook, Containerisation International Yearbook
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Throughput per Yard Crane ('000/yard crane)
“Standard”
Performance
“Premium”
Performance
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 30
Summary of Comments
The results of analysis have shown that the
productivity of TPS is considered above average
by international standards, and can be ranked as
“2nd Tier” among the global container ports. TPS
is less productive compared to the “1st Tier” ports
/ terminals located in the world-class container
ports.
The analysis also reveals that TPS has
performed better than the major container
terminals in Tanjung Priok (e.g., JICT and
KOJA), which implies that DPW is a good
partner for Pelindo III to jointly operate TPS
with continuously.
Meanwhile, TPS needs a significant jump (about
+120%) in berth productivity to become Top Tier
terminals; it requires around 40% increase in
area and quay crane productivity to match the
most highly efficient terminals; only 9% increase
in yard crane is needed to reach the normal
standard for a similar sized terminal.
This suggests any major improvement that
increases the handling ability of TPS is best
focused on upgrading / purchasing of cranes.
The improved overall productivity will help
attract and handle more vessel calls and
cargo volume.
2. Productivity Analysis
Figure 2.10 Productivity Benchmarking
Note: Numbers in the arrows indicate the percentage growth TPS required in proceeding into the next
tier.
Berth Productivity Area Productivity Quay Crane Productivity Yard Crane Productivity
3rd Tier (Last 40%) 2nd Tier (Top 20-60%) Top Tier (Top 20%) TPS
12
1%
38
%
40
%
9%
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 31
Figure 2.11 Pelindo III’s Key Container Terminals
Productivity Analysis (II) – TPS vs. Pelindo III Self Operated Ports
TPS vs. Pelindo III Self Operated Ports
Among all of the terminals operated by Pelindo III, the majority of container throughput handled are at Tanjung Perak (mainly
contributed by TPS and BJTI), followed by TPKS, Banjarmasin and Tenau Kupang. TPKS has been selected and benchmarked
against TPS, considering the comparative container traffic, trade pattern, capacity, infrastructure and facilities, etc.
2. Productivity Analysis
1. TPS
2. Terminal
Petikemas
Semarang
(TPKS) 1 2
Source: Pelindo III, BMT
Throughput in 2014 (mn TEU)
1.2
0.6 0.60.4 0.1
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.31.2
0.6 0.6
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
TPS BJTI TG. PERAK
TPKS
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 32
Berth Productivity of TPS Compared with Pelindo III’s Container Terminals
Berth Productivity
In terms of berth productivity, TPKS
is ~ 7% more efficient than that of
TPS, indicating the berth
operational conditions of TPS
may have room for improvement
compared with Pelindo III’s
terminals.
Implication
This suggests that TPS’ berth
productivity could be improved if
self-operated.
2. Productivity Analysis
Figure 2.12 Berth Productivity of TPS vs. TPKS
Source: Pelindo III
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
TPKS TPS
Th
rou
gh
put p
er B
ert
h L
en
gth
('
000 T
EU
/m)
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 33
Figure 2.13 Throughput per Quay Crane of TPS vs. TPKS
Throughput per Quay Crane of TPS Compared with Pelindo III’s Container
Terminals
2. Productivity Analysis
Throughput per Quay Crane
The quay crane productivity was
compared in terms of:
1. the volume of throughput over
the number of quay crane; and
2. the number of moves per crane
per hour (mph).
TPS’ average throughput handled
per crane is about 125,000 TEU.
TPS is more efficient than TPKS
(~20% difference).
Implication
This implies a better utilisation of
quay cranes at TPS/DPW has
existed compared with the other
Pelindo III’s terminals.
Source: Pelindo III
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
TPS TPKS
Th
rou
gh
put p
er Q
uay C
ran
e('
000/q
uay c
ran
e)
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 34
Figure 2.14 Quay Crane Move per Hour of TPS vs. TPKS
Quay Crane Productivity of TPS Compared with Pelindo III’s Container
Terminals
2. Productivity Analysis
Crane Move per Hour (mph)
The quay cranes of TPS and TPKS
are operating at the same
productivity level (~25 mph). They
both reach the “Standard”
performance of a container terminal.
Implication
Quay cranes used by Pelindo III self-
operated terminals could be as
efficient as those in TPS.
Source: Pelindo III
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
TPS TPKS
Cra
ne P
rod
ucti
vit
y (m
ph
)
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 35
Summary
2. Productivity Analysis
There is about 10-20% difference in productivity
between TPS and Pelindo III self-operated terminal,
TPKS. TPKS performs better than TPS (in terms of
berth productivity) or at the same level as TPS'
standard (in terms of crane productivity).
The productivity difference if TPS is self operated by
Pelindo III is considered minimal.
However, due to the difference in volume and the
cargo mix and trade patterns, as well as the existing
constraints faced at the terminal, TPS may not be
comparable with other local terminals.
Despite of that the analysis does not pre-empt the
possibility that Pelindo III, if operating alone at TPS,
could achieve a productivity similar to that of jointly
operating with DPW.
Nonetheless, one should also consider the non-
technical benefits (e.g., international branding,
technology application, management experience,
financial soundness, etc) of jointly operating
with international players.
Besides, TPS has performed better than other
terminals operated jointly by international
terminal operators in Indonesia (see the previous
section).
Figure 2.15 Productivity Benchmark (Self-operated vs. Jointly-operated)
Berth Productivity Throughput per Quay Crane Crane Productivity
TPKS TPS
7%
20%
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 36 Date: 22 Dec 2015 36
Conclusion
TPS vs. International & Regional
ports
The analysis reveals that TPS has
performed better than the major
container terminals in Tanjung Priok
(e.g., JICT and KOJA), which implies
that DPW has been a good partner for
Pelindo III to jointly operate TPS
continuously with.
TPS vs. Pelindo III Self Operated
Ports
The analysis does not pre-empt the
possibility that Pelindo III, if operating
alone at TPS, could achieve a
productivity similar to that of jointly
operating with DPW. Despite of this, it is
worth noting that due to the difference in
volume and the cargo mix and trade
patterns, as well as the existing
constraints faced at the terminal, TPS
and other local terminals may not be
comparable.
2. Productivity Analysis
Non-technical Benefits
One should also consider the non-
technical benefits (e.g., international
branding, technology application,
management experience, financial
soundness, etc) of jointly operating with
international player.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 37 Date: 22 Dec 2015 37
Capacity Plan Assessment
3. Capacity Plan Assessment
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 38
Investment Plan by DPW / TPS
3. Capacity Plan Assessment
As of 10th Dec 2015, the documents relating to the TPS Investment Plan by TPS/DPW received are summarised as below:
• 20150907_TPS Extension Scenario.pdf, received on 12 Oct 2015. This file outlines the key investment items of TPS for the
next concession period, including:
Quay crane replacement / purchase at benchmarking years
Yard crane replacement / purchase at benchmarking years
CAPEX (Capital Expenditure) Plan from 2013 to 2018
• Based on the discussion with the TPS team on 8th Dec 2015, it is confirmed that dredging work at TPS will be conducted to
deepen the channel from the existing 10.5 m to 13 m by 2017.
Regarding the relating Capital Costs, Pelindo III has yet received the updated CAPEX breakdown data to be provided by
TPS/DPW. To facilitate the work, the Pelindo III team provided the following documents:
• COST INPUT TEMPLATE 8 DEC v1 sent 091215.xlsx and CAPEX_TPS rev_101215.xlsx, received on 9 Dec 2015 and 10
Dec 2015 respectively based on the required cost template drafted by BMT.
• Historical cost items and data in 2013 as compiled in the Financial Model TPS Final (24 Dec 12) Master copy FINAL (to P3)
(DPW base case).xlsx prepared by PT Bahana Securities.
Based on the preceding findings and received data, BMT make the best effort to provide the assessment and the independent
estimations for the TPS Investment Plan.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 39
Dredging Requirement
Berth Improvement
As acknowledged from PP3 masterplan,
TPS also aims to dredge from the
existing draft of 10.5 m to 13 m by 2017.
Together with the facility purchase /
replace plan, TPS intends to enhance
the terminal conditions to be “fit” for the
accommodation of larger container
vessels, mainly 4th generation vessels.
Normally, the minimum water depth
required to accommodate 4th generation
or up vessels is 13 m at least. Therefore,
dredging to -13 m is reasonable and
conservative.
3. Capacity Plan Assessment
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 40
DPW’s Quay Crane and Yard Crane Supply Plan
3. Capacity Plan Assessment
Quay STS Crane Plan 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040
Int’l twin-lift nos. 0 5 6 9 10
Int’l single-lift nos. 9 4 4 1 0
Domestic single-lift nos. 2 4 4 4 4
Total Numbers 11 13 14 14 14
Yard RTG Crane Plan 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040
RTG Numbers 30 33 38 38 38
Target Capacity 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040
(mn TEUs) 1.8 2.18 2.38 2.47 2.5
Notes: STS crane – Ship-to-shore quay crane; RTG crane – Rubber-tyred gantry crane
Based on the throughput forecast, DPW proposed to expand existing capacity to 2.5 m TEUs by 2040, making the utilisation at
around 80% to 85%. This is considered reasonable.
The capacity expansion plan and the associated facility investments in DPW proposal are summarised as below:
The key investment plan of TPS tie with the upgrade / replacement of Quay Cranes and Yard Cranes. The appropriateness of
required cranes to meet the capacity plan will be assessed.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 41
References of Quay Cranes Capacity
3. Capacity Plan Assessment
Reference
Implication
Equipment Type Each Capacity Equivalent
(M TEUs p.a.)
• Rotterdam, APM Terminals, capacity of 2.7mn TEUs, 13 Post-Panamax
STS cranes all with a twin lift capability PP (twin-lift) 0.20
• Alabama APM Terminal Mobile, capacity of 350,000 TEUs with 2 Post-
Panamax cranes now in service. PP 0.17
• Colon Container Terminal, capacity of 1.3mn TEUs, 5 Post-Panamax STS
cranes and 5 Panamax STS ones.
PP Crane
Panamax Crane
0.18
0.08
• Port of Balboa, 4 Super Post-Panamax cranes, 10 Post-Panamax cranes
and 8 Panamax cranes, capable of handling 3.2mn TEUs in 2014.
SPP
PP
Panamax Crane
0.22
0.18
0.08
• South Asia Gateway Terminals, capacity of ~ 2 M TEUs pa, 6 SPP QC and
3 PP quay cranes.
SPP
PP
0.22
0.18
Notes: PP – Post-Panamax; SPP – Super Post-Panamax;
To determined the appropriateness of cranes in need, research on recent reference of quay cranes and yard cranes in the port
industry has been conducted in order to inform the additional handling capacity to be brought in by the installation of quay cranes.
Research shows that Post-Panamax STS quay cranes is able to provide ~ 0.18 mn TEUs p.a. for single-lift type and ~
0.2 mn TEUs p.a. for twin-lift type.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 42
Review of Quay Crane Capacity
Capacity Review
• Applying the estimated ratio of capacity TEUs per
quay crane on DPW’s proposed number of quay
crane, Figure 3.1 shows the BMT estimations of
handling capacity, which is compared with the
handling capacity proposed by DPW.
• BMT’s estimates show that according to DPW’s
proposed quay crane investment plan, its handling
capacity should be able to handle 2.68 mn TEUs in
the medium to long term, whereas DPW ‘s estimated
handling capacity is ~ 7-8% lower.
• The under-estimated capacity by DPW’s investment
plan is roughly equals to one single-lift Post-
Panamax crane.
Comments
• Hence, it is considered that DPW’s proposal on quay
crane investment can be reduced by 1 crane, which
will help reduce the capital cost required and
generate potential cost saving.
3. Capacity Plan Assessment
Figure 3.1 QC Capacity by BMT Estimate
comparing with DPW Target
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 43
References of Yard Crane Capacity
3. Capacity Plan Assessment
To evaluate the capacity created by yard cranes, benchmark ratio of single yard crane’s Capacity TEUs per Yard Hectare is
researched through DPW’s ports in the region, and world average by Dewry Research is also considered.
References
• Based on the reference research the capacity TEUs
per yard hectare is about 1,500 TEUs/ha*.
• Further review on DPW’s port portfolio was
conducted, which shows that this ratio for DPW Asia
ports is 1,780 TEUs/ha on average..
• TPS existing yard crane capacity is about 1,600
TEUs/ha, which is applied in the analysis.
Source: *Drewry Research and BMT analysis
Figure 3.2 Yard Crane Capacity Benchmarks
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 44
Review of Yard Crane Capacity Supply
3. Capacity Plan Assessment
Capacity Review
• Similarly, by applying the estimated ratio of capacity
TEUs per yard hectare with DPW’s proposed
number of yard crane, the capacity of yard crane is
estimated. The results are shown in Figure 3.3.
• Throughout the project period, the difference of BMT
and DPW estimated yard carne handling capacity is
in the range of 3-7%, which is considered
reasonable.
• The small difference may be caused partially by the
different timing of installing the RTG.
Comments
• In summary, the proposed yard crane investment by
DPW is considered reasonable.
Figure 3.3 Yard Crane Capacity by BMT Estimate
comparing with DPW Target
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 45
Summary of Crane Capacity Plan Review
3. Capacity Plan Assessment
5 WL
7 SL
6 WL
7 SL
9 WL
4 SL
10 WL
3 SL
Figure 3.4 Quay Crane Capacity Review
35
RTG
30
RTG
33
RTG
38
RTG
38
RTG
38
RTG
38
RTG
Figure 3.5 Yard Crane Capacity Review
It is considered that the quay crane investment plan proposed by DPW may provide higher handling capacity (~ 0.18mn
TEUs p.a.) than what is anticipated by DPW, equivalent to a saving of one single-lift Post-Panamax crane.; meanwhile, the
yard crane investment plan is considered to be within a reasonable range (~ 3%) of difference.
11 SL 5 WL
8 SL
6 WL
8 SL
9 WL
5 SL
10 WL
4 SL
Number of QCs as proposed by DPW
Number of QCs as advised by BMT
11 SL
Number of RTGs as proposed by DPW
Number of RTGs as advised by BMT
30
RTG
38
RTG
38
RTG
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 46 Date: 22 Dec 2015 46
Tariff and Cost Estimates
4. Tariff and Cost Estimates
As stated in Chapter 3, Pelindo III has yet received the updated CAPEX breakdown data to be provided by TPS/DPW. However, the assessment is
conducted based on the preceding findings and the data / files received.
The revenue and cost estimations at various benchmarking years are shown in this Chapter. Yearly figures are included in a separate excel file of
“TPS Revenue and Cost Estimations”.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 47
Tariff Review
4. Tariff and Cost Estimates
Historical Data at TPS
• Port stevedoring tariff of TPS in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2013 and 2014 were reviewed based on “HISTORI TARIF” received on 08 Dec
2015.
• The stevedoring tariffs are categories in International / Domestic, Laden / Empty and 20’ / 40’ / 45’.
• It is worth noting that the tariff for international containers is charged in USD; while the tariff for domestic is charged in Indonesian
Rupiah.
• Other revenue items mainly include yard storage services, lift on / off services and ancillary services.
Container loading service -
International (USD/Box) TPS JICT
Laden
20' FCL 82 83
40' FCL 123 125
45' FCL 154 156
20' LCL 155 157
40' LCL 233 235
45' LCL 291 293
Empty
20' 62 62
40' 92 93
45' 115 117
Table 4.1 Comparison of Tariff between TPS and JICT Growing Trend of Port Tariff
To estimate the future trend of tariff at TPS, the following
aspects are reviewed.
• Historical trend shows an around 2% CAGR of tariff for
international container handling from 2005 to 2014.
• For domestic container handling, the CAGR was
around 7%. This higher CAGR mainly reflected a high
local inflation rate of 6.5% in the past several years.
• Tariffs at benchmarking ports such as Tanjung Priok
were reviewed. TPS is now charging at a similar level
to Tanjung Priok.
Source: Pelindo III and BMT
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 48
4. Tariff and Cost Estimates
Expected Revenue
Tariff and Revenue Forecast
The tariff at TPS is expected to continue its growing
trend mainly because:
• New ports / terminals coming into market may pose
some pressure on tariff setting.
• Improved physical conditions at TPS (mainly through
deepened draft and upgraded cranes) may level up
the attractiveness of TPS.
Hence, tariff at TPS is assumed as follows:
• For international container cargo, stevedoring tariff
for container stevedoring (in USD) is expected to
grow at 2% p.a..
• For domestic container cargo, stevedoring tariff for
container stevedoring (in IDR) is expected to grow at
5% - 6% p.a. reflecting a lowered inflation level of 4%
to 5% p.a. in the future.
• For Storage and Lift on/off, the tariff is expected to
grow at 2% p.a..
The forecast result of revenue at TPS is summarised in
the Figure and Table on the RHS.
million USD 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Revenue 145 201 273 322 361 405
Figure 4.1 Revenue Forecast of Handling International and
Domestic Container Cargo at TPS
Note: assume 11% ancillary revenues generated from other revenue sources such as other cargo
services based on TPS historical data.
It is notable that some container cargo are handled by vessel crane and there will be a discounted tariff
for stevedoring service. Based on historical revenue and throughput data, a 9% discount on tariff is
applied in the revenue projection.
According to the local transportation regulation, the increase of tariffs occurs at every 2~3 years, for the
ease of analysis, BMT applied an annual compound growth rate for tariffs.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
‘000 U
SD
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 49 Date: 22 Dec 2015 49
Key CAPEX Items
4. Tariff and Cost Estimates
Civil works:
▪ Dredging
▪ Fender replacement
▪ Wharf repair
▪ Miscellaneous civil &
installation maintenance
Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)
Equipments:
▪ Quay cranes *
▪ Rail mounted gantry cranes
▪ Head truck
▪ Dollies
▪ Chassis/Spreader *
▪ Empty handler
▪ Research Stacker
Others:
▪ IT systems
▪ Other miscellaneous capex
▪ Refurbishment QC
▪ Electrification
▪ Refurbishment RTG
▪ Ordinary Refurbishment
▪ Base on “CAPEX_TPS rev_101215.xlsx” received on 10 Dec 2015, the key capital cost items in the TPS improvement plan
are summarised as below:
▪ As analysed in Chapter 3, the number of quay cranes purchase in TPS plan may be ~ 7-8% higher (equivalent to 1 single lift
crane) than what is required. This has been subsequently considered in the cost estimation.
▪ In addition, the purchase of chassis/spreaders, a minor item, is also considered over-estimated. This is also adjusted in the
cost estimation.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 50
Key CAPEX Assumptions
4. Tariff and Cost Estimates
Key Cost Items Unit Unit Cost Total Number
(as of 2040)
Quay Cranes (QC) 000 USD/pcs 6,600~10,700 13
Rubber Tyred Gantry Cranes
(RTGC) 000 USD/pcs 1,240 38
Reach Stacker 000 USD/pcs 580 3
Empty Handler 000 USD/pcs 300 5
Headtrucks 000 USD/pcs 125 99
Dollies 000 USD/pcs 25 83
Chassis 000 USD/pcs 44 155
Unit Cost
As summarised in the Table on the RHS,
unit costs of the key CAPEX items are
based on references of:
• Past BMT port development projects;
• International port dredging contracts;
• International equipment suppliers.
Key Assumptions
• Total number required has considered
the results of the Capacity Plan
Assessment in Chapter 3;
• Purchase and installation of quay
canes are assumed to last for 3 years;
while RTGCs will last for 2 years.
• The replacement of equipments is
based on asset lifespan.
• It is assumed that the inflation rate for
equipment and capital expenses is
2% p.a..
Table 4.2 Unit Cost and Total Number Estimated by BMT
Source: BMT
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 51 Date: 22 Dec 2015 51
CAPEX Estimations
4. Tariff and Cost Estimates
Summary
The accumulated CAPEX from 2015 to
2020 is expected to be around US$ 212 M;
it is expected to reach US$ 590 M in 2040.
The procurement of equipment accounts
for above 50% of the total CAPEX. Civil
work and facilities maintenance accounts
for about 19% of the total CAPEX.
Quay crane, RTGC, Refurbishment QC
are key cost items which account for 24%,
16% and 11% respectively in the total
CAPEX.
Accumulated
CAPEX
(mn USD)
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Civil works 7 49 68 82 101 115
Equipment 21 115 174 223 265 299
Others 3 48 72 105 145 176
Total 31 212 313 410 511 590
Figure 4.2 Capital Expenditure
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 m
n U
SD
Civil works and Facilities Maintenance Equipment Procurement Others
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 52
• Employee costs, estimated based on the scale of
port operation and calculated using unit cost per
TEU multiplied by port throughput.
• Material costs, mainly refers to the utility / energy
consumed for TPS operation. Estimation is mainly
based on the growth of port throughput.
• Maintenance costs, relates to the purchased and
installed CAPEX items. Historical data were
referenced.
• Depreciation and amortization, a range of 2% to
10% depreciation rate are applied subject to asset
life cycle.
• Rental costs, as explained by TPS/DPW, refers
to the insurance cost which is linked with CAPEX
items.
Operating Expenditure (OPEX)
• Biaya Sewa, as explained by TPS/DPW, refers to
cost of port facility, construction & equipment rent,
vehicle rent and labour rent. Estimated to increase
with port throughput growth.
• Cost community development, refers to the cost for
social activity allocation from 1% of net profit.
• Cost Contributions, equals to about 10% from total
revenue.
• Income Tax, accounts for 25% of Net Income (before
tax).
• Other costs, such as administration costs, general
costs, etc..
4. Tariff and Cost Estimates
Key OPEX Items and Assumptions
▪ Base on the “COST INPUT TEMPLATE 8 DEC v1.xlsx” received on 9 Dec 2015, the key OPEX items of TPS improvement
plan are shown below. The OPEX estimations are mainly referenced to the historical data of 2013~2015. Key assumptions
are elaborated in the following figure.
Note: assume 4% to 6% inflation rate based on IMF forecast.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 53 Date: 22 Dec 2015 53
OPEX Estimations
4. Tariff and Cost Estimates
Summary
• Overall OPEX is expected to steadily
increase at a CAGR of around 5% p.a.; from
IDR 886 billion in 2015 to IDR 3,863 billion in
2040.
• Upon completion of the improvement phase,
Biaya Sewa, employee and maintenance
costs will become the dominant cost items in
OPEX, which are around 22%, 15% and 13%
respectively.
• Depreciation costs is estimated to account for
around 7% of the total OPEX.
• As Maintenance, Rental Costs (i.e., insurance
costs) and Depreciation costs are mainly
linked with capital cost items, it is more likely
that these items will be settled in USD rather
than Indonesian Rupiah. These three items
generally account for 20% to 25% of the total
OPEX.
Billion IDR 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OPEX 886 1,420 2,030 2,597 3,175 3,863
Figure 4.3 Operating Expenditure
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Bn ID
R
Employee costs Material costs Maintenance costs
Depreciation expense Rental costs Biaya Sewa
Cost Community Development Cost Contributions Other Costs
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 54 Date: 22 Dec 2015 54
Summary
Tariff and Revenue Forecast
Tariff for international container handling
(in USD) is expected to grow by 2% p.a..
For domestic container cargo, port tariff
(in IDR) is expected to grow at 5% - 6%
p.a. reflecting a lowered inflation level of
4% to 5% p.a. in the future. For Storage
and Lift on/off, the tariff is expected to
grow at 2% p.a..
Total revenue of TPS is expected to
reach IDR 405 billion in 2040.
CAPEX Estimations
The accumulated CAPEX from 2015
to 2020 is expected to be around US$
212 million and US$ 590 million from
2015 to 2040.
The procurement of equipment
accounts for above 50% of the total
CAPEX. Civil work and facilities
maintenance accounts for about 19%
of the total CAPEX.
4. Tariff and Cost Estimates
OPEX Estimations
Overall OPEX is expected to steadily
increase at a CAGR of around 5% p.a.;
from IDR 886 billion in 2015 to IDR 3,863
billion in 2040.
Upon completion of the improvement
phase, Biaya Sewa, employee and
maintenance costs will become the
dominant cost items in OPEX, which are
around 22%, 15% and 13% respectively.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 55 Date: 22 Dec 2015 55
Conclusion
5. Conclusion
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 56 Date: 22 Dec 2015 56
Key Aspects to Review
6. Conclusion
• Cargo Demand Forecast
• Alternative Option
• The throughput of Tanjung Perak is expected to reach 4.6 million TEUs in
2020 and 9.3 million TEUs in 2030, with an growth rate of 5%-9% during 2015
to 2040.
• TPS is expected to handle 1.7 million TEUs in 2020, which is expected to
reach 2.2 million TEUs and stabilise in the long term.
• Concession Plan Review
• TPS has performed better than the major container terminals in Tanjung Priok,
which implies that DPW has been a good partner for Pelindo III to jointly
operate TPS continuously with.
• The analysis does not pre-empt the possibility that Pelindo III, if operating
alone at TPS, could achieve a productivity similar to that of jointly operating
with DPW. One should also consider the non-technical benefits of jointly
operating with international player.
• The overall improvement plan is reasonable in terms of crane upgrading /
purchasing. However, it is identified that there exist some opportunities for less
facilities to be required - the cost equivalent to one single-lift crane may be
saved.
• The CAPEX investment mainly arise from purchase / replacement of cranes.
Accumulated CAPEX from 2015 to 2040 is expected to be US$ 590 million.
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57 Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015
Thank You
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 58 Date: 22 Dec 2015 58
DPW Forecast Review
Appendix A – DPW Forecast Review
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 59
Comparison of Tanjung Perak Forecasts The throughput forecast of DPW proposal was then compared against BMT’s forecast.
Appendix A – DPW Forecast Review
Comparison of the Throughput Forecasts for
Tanjung Perak
DPW’s forecast (updated version received on
18.12.2015) and PP3’s forecast in Masterplan
were reviewed and compared against BMT’s
forecast (2015~2040), it shows:
• PP3’s forecast of Tanjung Perak is generally in
line with BMT’s forecast results.
• The throughput forecast of Tanjung Perak in the
DPW Proposal is close to BMT’s forecast in the
short term (2015~2020), the difference is within
5%.
• In the medium to long term, DPW’s forecast is
around 14% lower than BMT forecast.
In short, DPW’s forecast for Tanjung Perak Port is
considered reasonable in the short term, but a
little conservative in the medium to long term.
Source: The Master Plan of Tanjung Perak Port, DPW Proposal
Comparison of
Throughput
Forecasts of
Tanjung Perak
to Year 2040
mn TEUs 2015 2020 2030 2040
BMT 3.1 4.2 9.7 19.0
DPW 3.1 4.2 7.4 12.1
PP3 3.5 5.0 9.8 --
Figure A.1 Comparison of DPW Forecast with BMT Forecast
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
mn
TE
Us
BMT DPW PP3
• In the long term, DPW’s result
is lower than BMT forecast.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
mn
TE
Us
DPW Forecast
BMT Forecast
Comparison of TPS Forecasts The throughput forecast of DPW proposal was then compared against BMT’s forecast.
Forecast Comparison
Compare DPW’s forecast with BMT forecast of
TPS (2015~2040), the results show that:
• Throughput forecast between DPW and BMT
is very close before 2020.
• The growth of TPS throughput experienced a
slight slow down in DPW’s forecast. However,
according to the TPS capacity plan, additional
capacity is scheduled to be added in 2019.
Therefore, the terminal has capacity to handle
the growth of existing containerised cargos.
• BMT assumed that TPS can reach 85% to
90% utilisation in the long term.
• As a result, DPW’s forecast of TPS container
throughput is around 3% lower than BMT’s in
the short term (2015-2025), and about 5%
lower in the long term (2025-2040).
Overall, DPW’s throughput forecast for TPS is
considered reasonable.
Appendix A – DPW Forecast Review
Figure A.2 Comparison of DPW and BMT Forecast of TPS Throughput
Comparison of
Throughput
Forecasts of TPS
to Year 2040
mn TEUs 2015 2020 2030 2040
BMT initial forecast 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.2
DPW forecast 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.1
Growth rate of TPS
throughput is in line with
that of Tanjung Perak
throughput forecast.
it is assumed that TPS can
reach 85% to 90%
utilisation in the long term.
DPW’s forecast is 6%
lower than BMT
forecast in 2025- 2040.
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Technical Commercial Assessments of TPS Concession Date: 22 Dec 2015 61 Date: 22 Dec 2015 61
Summary
Comparison of Tanjung Perak
Forecasts
The throughput forecast of Tanjung
Perak in the DPW Proposal is close to
BMT’s forecast in the short term
(2015~2025), within 5% difference.
In the medium to long term, DPW’s
forecast is around 14% lower than BMT
forecast.
DPW’s forecast for Tanjung Perak Port is
considered reasonable in the short term,
but a little conservative in the medium to
long term.
Comparison of TPS Forecasts
DPW’s forecast of TPS container
throughput is around 3% lower than
BMT’s in the short term (2015-2025),
and about 5% lower in the long term
(2025-2040).
For the whole period, the difference is
minor, about 5% lower than BMT
forecast.
Overall, DPW’s forecast for TPS is
considered reasonable.
Appendix A – DPW Forecast Review
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Appendix BPwC Report
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Valuation & Strategy
Project PortigaStrategic Review of Financing Strategy of Pelindo III in relation to PT Terminal PetikemasSurabaya's Joint Operating AgreementStrictly private
and confidential
22 December 2015
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Draft
Triono SoedirdjoDirectorT: +62 (21) 528 91033M: +62 816 132 [email protected]
PricewaterhouseCoopers Indonesia AdvisoryPlaza 89, Jl. HR. Rasuna Said Kav. X-7 No.6, Jakarta 12940T: +62 21 5212901F: +62 21 52905555 / 52905050
Mr. Feb SumandarPT Bahana SecuritiesGedung Graha Niaga Lt. 21Jakarta
22 December 2015
Dear Sir,
This report (“Report”) has been prepared solely for PT Bahana Securities (“Bahana”) in connection with Strategic Review of Financing Strategy of Pelindo III in relation to PT Terminal Petikemas Surabaya (“TPS”)'s Joint Operating Agreement (“TPS JOA”). It has been prepared in accordance with our letter of engagement dated 24 September 2015 and the attached terms and conditions.
This Report has been prepared solely for the purposes stated herein, and should not be relied upon for any other purpose. This Report is strictly confidential and (save to the extent required by the applicable laws and/or regulations) must not be released to any third party without our express written consent, which is at our sole discretion.
Our Report is not intended to be the basis for investment decisions, and any action you take must ultimately remain a decision for you, taking into account matters outside the scope of our work of which you are aware.
To the fullest extent permitted by law, PwC accepts no duty of care to any third party in connection with the provision of this Report and/or any related information or explanation (together, the “Information”). Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by the applicable law, PwC accepts no liability of any kind to any third party and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any third party acting or refraining to act in reliance on the Information.
2
Project Portiga
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Draft 3
Project Portiga
PricewaterhouseCoopers Indonesia AdvisoryPlaza 89, Jl. HR. Rasuna Said Kav. X-7 No.6, Jakarta 12940T: +62 21 5212901F: +62 21 52905555 / 52905050
The information used by PwC in preparing this Report has been obtained from a variety of sources, as indicated within the Report. While our work has involved analysis of financial information and/or accounting records, it has not included an audit in accordance with generally accepted auditing standards. Moreover, except where otherwise stated in the Report, we have not subjected the financial information in the Report to checking or verification procedures.
Accordingly, we assume no responsibility and make no representations with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any information provided to us, except where otherwise stated herein, and no assurances are given.
Our conclusions are based upon the information available as at the date of the Report. Economic conditions, market factors and changes in the performance of the business may result in our conclusions becoming quickly outdated, and they may require updating from time to time or before any major decisions are taken based on the Report. In any event, if you intend to make any decision based on the Report more than three months from the Valuation Date, you must request our written confirmation as to the currency of our conclusions.
Our results depend on the projections for for TPS and Pelindo III. However, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, there will usually be differences between predicted and actual results, and those differences may be material. Accordingly, we express no opinion as to how closely the actual results achieved will correspond to those predicted for the TPS and Pelindo III, and we take no responsibility for the achievement of predicted results.
If you require any clarification or further information, please do not hesitate to contact myself on (+62 21 528 91033).
Yours faithfully,
Triono Soedirdjo
Director
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Draft
At a glance 6
1 Incremental free cash flow analysis 10
1.1 Sensitivity analysis 14
1.2 Assumptions 15
1.3 NPV comparison 17
1.4 Qualitative analysis 18
2 Conclusion 21
3 Appendix 22
3.1 Financial covenants analysis 23
3.1.1 Self operate vs. Joint operate assumptions 24
3.1.2 Financial covenants 26
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis 32
3.3 Discount rate calculation 65
3.4 Charts 69
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS 74
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS 139
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS 172
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Status of Report
5
Project Portiga
Our work is not complete and still subject to change. As a result, this draft report may not represent our final findings or conclusion.
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
At a glance (1 of 4)
Background of the Engagement
You have requested PT PricewaterhouseCoopers Indonesia Advisory to provide you with assistance with Strategic Review on Financing Strategy of Pelindo III in relation to TPS-JOA. This report is intended only to you.
Scope of work
Please refer to our Engagement Letter dated 24 September 2015.
Sources of information
The information used by PwC in preparing this Report has been obtained from a variety of sources as indicated within the Report. While our work has involved analysis of financial information and/or accounting records, it has not included an audit in accordance with generally accepted auditing standards. Moreover, except where otherwise stated in the Report, we have not subjected the financial information in the Report to checking or verification procedures. Accordingly we assume no responsibility and make no representations with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any information provided to us, except where otherwise stated herein, and no assurance is given.
Approaches We have adopted the Discounted Cash Flow (“ DCF” ) specifically using the Free Cash Flow to Equity (“ FCFE” ) as the primary method which primarily draws upon cash flow forecasts from the period to date 30 September 2015 (“ PTD15” ) through to 2040.
Scenarios There are two scenarios namely the Self Operate and Joint Operate scenarios. In Self Operate, it is assumed that Pelindo III will not extend its cooperation with Dubai Port World (“ DPW” ) which is to expire in 2019. In Joint Operate, Pelindo III will extend the cooperation with a partner who may be DPW or a new partner in 2019.
Discount rate The discount rate used is 15% to 16% for all scenarios.
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
At a glance (2 of 4)
Key premises Our analysis was carried out on the basis of the following key premises:
• Throughput, Tariff and Capital expenditure (“ Capex” ): We refer to BMT for these assumptions. We assume Management can achieve the targeted revenue during the projected years and the capex projection is sufficient to meet the targeted revenue throughout the forecast period and committed as necessary.
• Costs: Operating expenses and overhead expenses have been estimated properly. We have not performed any technical review regarding the adequacy of the expenses.
• Margin: Management can obtain the assumed gross profit, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (“ EBITDA” ) margin during projections period.
• Other relevant regulations: Operations would not be impeded by regulations, the need for permits or environmental issues. There are no major changes in port regulations or any other actions made by the Government of Indonesia that could adversely affect Pelindo III and TPS’ s business. Scenario continue joint operation also assumes there will be no legal or approval issues that may deter the continuation of the joint operation.
• Upfront fees: Management can receive the indicative upfront fee of USD 250 million in 2016. Any deviation from this amount will have an impact on our analysis.
• Concession fee: Fixed and variable concession fees have been estimated properly and can be maintained throughout the projection period regardless of the amount of upfront fee.
• Agreement: Terms and conditions in all relevant agreements (i.e. Shareholder Agreement, Authorization Agreement, Loan agreements) are unchanged throughout the projection period.
• RJPP (Approved 5 years business plan): All figures have been approved. We do not perform any review on the calculation of the RJPP.
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
At a glance (3 of 4)
Sensitivity From these two scenarios, we have done a sensitivity analysis, they are:
NPV results From our analysis, joint operation contributes higher NPV compared to self operation in all scenarios.
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Project Portiga
• BMT revenue and capex
• Projected operating expenses based on
average historical % from revenue, overhead
expense based on inflationhead expense
based on inflation
• BMT revenue and capex
• Projected operating expenses based on
average historical % from revenue, overhead
expense based on inflationhead expense
based on inflation
• BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation • BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation
• Revenue is lower by by 2% than no. 1
• Overhead cost is higher by 2% than no. 1
• Revenue is lower by by 2% than no. 1
• Overhead cost is higher by 2% than no. 1
• Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs
• Other follows no. 1
• Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs
• Other follows no. 1
Joint OperateSelf Operate
1
3
5
7
2
4
6
8
4,418
5,006
3,053
4,233
4,293
4,948
4,679
5,129
3,053
4,233
4,946
5,334
3,416
4,462
4,803
5,267
5,248
5,478
5,248
5,478
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Overall self operate range
Overall joint operaterange
NPV (IDR in billion)
Sen
sit
ivit
y
NPV of incremental cash flow to Pelindo III comparison
Legend:
Self operate
Joint operate
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
At a glance (4 of 4)
NPV results(cont’ d)
However, please note that for all joint operation sensitivity, the indicative upfront fee is assumed to be received in 2016 and amounted to USD 250 million. Any deviation from this upfront fee amount and timing will have an impact on our analysis.
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow analysis
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Project Portiga
1 Incremental free cash flow analysis Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Scenario options comparison (1 of 3)
11
Project Portiga
1 Incremental free cash flow analysis
SELF OPERATE CONTINUE JOINT OPERATE
*) This assumes continuation of joint operation agreement with similar terms
Pelindo III
TPS
Royalty and Annual Payment
Dividend and
Management fee until
2019 only
Partner
Asset Buyback in 2019
Bank
Principal and Interest
Payment
FinancingPelindo III
TPSDividend to
Partner
Partner Royalty and Annual Payment
Upfront Fee
Also pays transaction cost
Asset Buyback in 2040*
Management Fee
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Scenario options comparison (2 of 3)
12
Project Portiga
1 Incremental free cash flow analysis
Upfront fee (“UPF”)
Royalty and annual
payment
“Asset Buyback”
Transaction Cost
Capex
“Share Buyback”
Option A –Self operation
Option B –Continue joint operation*
Indicative (USD 250mn equivalent pre-tax), proposed by Pelindo III Management*
Authorization Agreement and DPW proposal
Calculated payment for shares based on the
Authorization Agreement
Benchmark of the similar transaction
TPS, reviewed by BMT
Shareholder Agreement
Source of information
Management fee to partner
Management information(indicative)
Finance for Pelindo III Capex
Debt amount to follow upfront fees amount. Interest rates
based on benchmarking.
N.A.Nil because the agreement
has run full term in 2019
1.0% of the upfront fee
N.A.
N.A. IDR 2.9 trillion (post tax)
IDR 834,979 million in 2019
Funded from upfront fee + interest saving
IDR 2.9 trillion debt raised (post tax UPF) + interest
payment
USD 31,200 fixed per month until 2019 and N.A. after 2019
Notes:• N.A = Not applicable• For the purpose of calculation
assumptions for option B, we assume DPW will continue the joint operation.
• Tax impact has been provisionally estimated in the financial model, but proper tax review needs to occur.
• The amount of debt raised for Self operate scenario is assumed equal to post-tax upfront fee received in Joint operate scenario to ensure comparability.
• The interest rates assumed are 4.99% for USD commercial loan and 11.5% for IDR commercial loan. 5 years repayment is assumed.
• Upfront fee may changes subject to further negotiation and tender process. Any deviation from this amount will impact our analysis.
• All figures are indicative, subject to further review, discussion, negotiation and all required process and approvals.
USD 2.8 mil + 10% of gross revenue. Net off within consolidated cash flow.
Same for both scenarios Same for both scenarios
USD 31,200 fixed per month
Dividend to partner
TPS Management proposal based on average historical
formula
49% of 80% of net income of TPS, or the available free cash flow whichever is lower until 2040, plus 49% of the remaining cash
balance at the end of 2040.
-
+
-
-
-49% of 80% of net income of TPS,
or the available free cash flow, whichever is lower until 2019,
plus 49% of the remaining cash balance at the end of 2019.
-
USD 2.8 mil + 10% of gross revenue. Net off within consolidated cash flow.
IDR 652,827 million in 2040-
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Scenario options comparison (3 of 3)
13
Project Portiga
1 Incremental free cash flow analysis
Capex of Pelindo III is funded by the upfront fee which gives interest savings to the company, as the company reduces its USD loan. For simplicity purposes, interest saving is only for one year. We have not calculated the monthly calculation for interest saving.
In Self Operate scenario, the company needs additional financing to fund the capex of Pelindo III.
1,513,167 1,369,833
-1,513,167 -1,369,833
-
-51,040 -134,389 -140,976 -92,869 -46,311 -11,419
(2,000,000)
(1,500,000)
(1,000,000)
(500,000)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash
flo
w (
IDR
Mil
lio
n)
Period
Self Operate
Cash inflow from borrowings Capex Interest payment
2,883,000
-1,513,167 -1,369,833
57,756
(2,000,000)
(1,500,000)
(1,000,000)
(500,000)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash
flo
w(I
DR
Mil
lio
n)
Period
Continue Joint Operate
Cash inflow from upfront fee Capex Interest savings
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Sensitivity analysis
14
Project Portiga
1.1 Sensitivity analysis
• We have performed several sensitivity scenarios as listed in the table below.
• In order to analyse how sensitive the revenue and cost of the company, we conducted a sensitivity analysis where the company’s revenue is lower by 2.0% and the overhead cost is higher by 2.0%
• Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis on the forecasted long term throughput by BMT. BMT forecasted that the long term TPS throughput will be 2.2 million TEUs. We made a sensitivity as per Management’s request that TPS throughput will reach 2.5 million TEUs in the long run. We have not assumed any negative impact to TPS from the possible lost of revenues due to competition from Teluk Lamong.
• Below is the summary of the sensitivity scenarios:
• BMT revenue and capex
• Projected operating expenses based on
average historical % from revenue,
overhead expense based on inflationhead
expense based on inflation
• BMT revenue and capex
• Projected operating expenses based on
average historical % from revenue,
overhead expense based on inflationhead
expense based on inflation
• BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation
(higher cost than no. 1)
• BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation
(higher cost than no. 2)
• Revenue is lower by 2% than no. 1
• Overhead cost is higher by 2% than no. 1
• Revenue is lower by 2% than no. 2
• Overhead cost is higher by 2% than no. 2
• Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs
(enabling higher net income)
• Other follows no. 1
• Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs
(enabling higher net income)
• Other follows no. 2
Joint OperateSelf Operate
1
3
5
7
2
4
6
8
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Financial model assumption for Sensitivity 1 and 2(1 of 2)
15
Project Portiga
1.2 Assumptions
General assumptions
• Working capital: The assumption below shows Account Receivables (“AR”) and Account Payables (“AP”) days used in the model. They are normalised based on historical days, but in the long run, they are 18 and 45 days respectively.
• Dividend payout ratio: This is calculated based on 80% of net income of TPS or the available equity free cash flow, whichever is lower.
• Inflation: The IDR inflation forecast is based on EIU forecast as at 14 October 2015. The forecast is as follows:
• Exchange rate: The exchange rate forecast is based on EIU forecast as at 14 October 2015. From 2020 onwards we use Purchasing Power Parity (“PPP”) based on the relativity to inflation rate. The forecast is as follows:
• Tax rate: The Corporate Income Tax (“CIT”) is assumed at 25.0%.
• Discounting period: We have applied a mid-year discounting period for our valuation. We believe that this method is appropriate since cash flows are assumed to be received or spent throughout the year. Therefore, mid-year discounting reflects the actual conditions.
• Discount rate (Ke): The discount rates assumed are in the range of 15.0% to 16.0% for both scenarios.
• Projection period: Free cash flows are projected for 25 years until 2040 for both scenarios.
Revenue assumption
• We refer to tariff and throughput assumptions by BMT as the technical consultant.
Working Capital 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-2040
AR terms 15 16 17 18 18 18 18 18 18
AP terms 11 12 15 18 24 30 35 40 45
Assumption 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-Onwards
Exchange Rate 13,578 15,376 14,675 13,609 13,179 PPP
Assumption 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-Onwards
IDR Inflation rate 6.7% 6.5% 5.8% 5.6% 5.4%
USD Inflation rate 0.3% 1.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0%
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Financial model assumption for Sensitivity 1 and 2(2 of 2)
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Project Portiga
1.2 Assumptions
Cost assumptions
• Management divides operational cost in the model into two categories, which are operating (“Opex”) and overhead expenses. Below are the detailed assumptions for each category.
• Opex. Based on the view of Pelindo III’s management, opex is assumed as semi-variable/variable cost. We assume all operating expenses are variable as a percentage to revenue. Below are the detailed assumption for opex based on average historical percentage to revenue.
• Overhead cost. Based on the view of Pelindo III’s Management, costs included in overhead cost are assumed fixed. The increase in the overhead cost is assumed to follow the inflation rates.
No Opex % to Revenue
1 Payroll
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 5.0%
Operations 3.1%
Engineering 0.3%
2 Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 4.6%
3 Equipment Hire 0.8%
4 Fuel (Gas & Oil) 5.2%
5 Electricity & Water 1.1%
6 Security Charges 0.04%
7
Other Operation Expenses (e.g.
Cleaning, waste disposal,
consumbles etc.)
0.1%
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Net present value (“NPV”) results
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Project Portiga
1.3 NPV comparison
• NPV is shown as a range for each sensitivity case due to the use of discount rates range (low and high)
• From the sensitivity analysis, joint operation contributes higher NPV compared to self operation in most scenarios.
• This is principally contributed by upfront fee received in 2016. If the upfront fee is lower than assumed, it will affect the analysis result. In our current analysis for sensitivity 1 and 2, any upfront fee less than USD 203 million or IDR 3.1 trillion will result in NPV of joint operate scenario to be lower than self operate scenario.
• The major NPV difference for scenario 3 to 4 is due to the assumption of the same upfront fee as other joint operate scenarios, with lower dividend paid due to lower net income.
• The NPV difference from scenario 1 to 5 will be much higher than the delta from 2 to 6 in the case of greater revenue shortfall and cost increment. This is due to joint operations scenario which have the same upfront fee even when revenue is reduced or cost is increased. But in self operate scenario, Pelindo III loses a lot more dividend income if revenue is reduced or cost is increased.
• BMT revenue and capex
• Projected operating expenses based on
average historical % from revenue,
overhead expense based on inflationhead
expense based on inflation
• BMT revenue and capex
• Projected operating expenses based on
average historical % from revenue,
overhead expense based on inflationhead
expense based on inflation
• BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation
(higher cost than no. 1)
• BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation
(higher cost than no. 2)
• Revenue is lower by 2% than no. 1
• Overhead cost is higher by 2% than no. 1
• Revenue is lower by 2% than no. 2
• Overhead cost is higher by 2% than no. 2
• Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs
(enabling higher net income)
• Other follows no. 1
• Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs
(enabling higher net income)
• Other follows no. 2
Joint OperateSelf Operate
1
3
5
7
2
4
6
8
4,418
5,006
3,053
4,233
4,293
4,948
4,679
5,129
3,053
4,233
4,946
5,334
3,416
4,462
4,803
5,267
5,248
5,478
5,248
5,478
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Overall self operate range
Overall joint operaterange
NPV (IDR in billion)
Sen
sit
ivit
y
NPV of incremental cash flow to Pelindo III comparison
Legend:
Self operate
Joint operate
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Self operate qualitative analysis
18
Project Portiga
1.4 Qualitative analysis
Pros
• Avoid paying equity returns to international operator after 2019 (but this only applies if Pelindo III believes international operator would not deliver better financial performance);
• Full control of dividend disbursement.
Cons
• High transaction costs (repurchase of fixed assets from TPS);
• No external investor to fund the capex. Issues whether Pelindo III’s own cash flow enough to finance the capex or Pelindo III need to find external source of fund, such as loans or bonds (involves interest payment);
• Possible debt covenant issues of raise financing from third parties (subject to bank loan, bond agreements and other contractual agreements
• Pelindo III remains exposed to full commercial risk.
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Joint operate qualitative analysis (1 of 2)
19
Project Portiga
1.4 Qualitative analysis
Pros
• Avoid buyback costs (repurchase of fixed assets from TPS);
• Financial commitment to ensure strong financial capacity of PelindoIII to fulfil capex plan requirement;
• Benefit of a contract with a global operator;
• Availability of fund: obtain the upfront fee to finance the capex;
• Pelindo III is partly protected from commercial risk;
• Preserve debt capacity.
Benefits which Management sees of a cooperation with a global
operator
• Access to international best practices and knowledge transfer;
• Relationships with global shipping companies;
• Accountability and monitoring of terminal management by global board with more experience and an ability to benchmark performance around the world;
• Financial discipline and controls imposed by international investors and global banks
• Financial transparency due to due diligence carried out at time of bidding for/signing contract;
• Education for safety and security of business process (international standards/best practice).
Cons
• Dividend payment to operator will still exist after 2019;
• Less flexibility in dividend disbursement.
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Joint operate qualitative analysis (2 of 2)
20
Project Portiga
1.4 Qualitative analysis
Potential benefits in the future of a cooperation with a global
operator
• Use of latest technology and systems;
• Better global market knowledge;• Purchasing power with suppliers.
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Conclusion
21
Project Portiga
2 Conclusion
Incremental free cash flow analysis
• Based on incremental FCFE analysis, Joint operate scenario contributes higher NPV than the Self operate scenario.
• In the Self operate scenario, the Government owns 100% of the risk in Pelindo III’s investment projects. In the Joint operate scenario, TPS will have access to DPW or other partner’s global experience of delivering many such projects.
• In the Joint operate scenario, Pelindo III has less flexibility in setting the dividend policy as it must be agreed by both parties, however, it will be more flexible for Self operate scenario.
• Moreover, Pelindo III is protected from commercial risk in Joint operate scenario by having the risk shared to both parties.
• For self operate scenario, the possibility to raise capex finance from bank loan or bond could be prohibited by ECA covenant breach unless consent/waiver is received from Deutsche Bank London.
Disclaimer:
1. We did not perform any review on BMT or Management assumptions;
2. We assume average loan balance to calculate interest expense;
3. Working capital is calculated based on accounts receivable, accounts payable and inventory calculated by Management in RJPP. We did not perform any review on those accounts;
4. Upfront fee is assumed to be received in 2016. The amount of upfront fee is uncertain, however, Management estimates an upfront fee of USD 250 million (indicative);
5. The free cash flow from TPS PTD 2015-FY 2019 is not summed in the incremental cash flow in Pelindo III as according to Management this refers to the previous cooperation period;
6. Our working model and analysis are based on data and assumption as of now and still subject to change upon receipt of additional information and assumption, as well as further review, discussion, negotiation and required approvals.
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Appendix
22
Project Portiga
3 Appendix Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Financial covenants analysis
23
Project Portiga
3.1 Financial covenants analysis Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
24
Project Portiga
3.1.1 Self operate vs. Joint operate assumptions
Financial Ratio Covenants Analysis in Pelindo III (1 of 2)
• During 2014 – 2019, Management of Pelindo III viewed that the company requires a total of IDR 23.4 trillion investment for the development of Pelindo III and its subsidiaries, including PT Terminal Petikemas Surabaya (“TPS”), which splits into USD and IDR with proportion of 47.1% and 52.9% respectively. This proportion is calculated from capex data in the company’s 2016 annual budget plan (RKAP) and we use this as a proportion reference for the remaining projected years.
• In its approved 5 years long term plan, Management of Pelindo III forecasts the need of a total of additional IDR 8.5 trillion in order to finance the capex until the end of contract period in 2019. Pelindo III then divided the financing into two phases:
• We performed financial covenants analysis based on RJPP for PelindoIII provided by Management until FY2019 to analyse whether the covenants will be breached if the additional financing is derived from bank loan or bond. We did not perform any review on projection assumption in RJPP.
2015 F 2016 F 2017 F 2018 F 2019 F
Loan withdrawn
(IDR million) - 4,000,000 4,500,000 - -
Contents
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22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
25
Project Portiga
3.1.1 Self operate vs. Joint operate assumptions
Financial Ratio Covenants Analysis in Pelindo III (2 of 2)
• Below are the four financing alternatives based on the source of financing with their respective currencies as follows:
• The total additional loan raised for all scenarios is IDR 8.5 trillion.
• Below are the details of interest rate we assume for each source of financing:
• Following RJPP, no loan repayment is assumed in all scenarios for period 2015-2019.
Source: Bank Indonesia publication, RJPP 2015-2019 and IPC global bond.
Scenarios USD IDR
Scenario 1 Global Bond Corporate Bond
Scenario 2 Global Bond Commercial loan
Scenario 3 Commercial Loan Corporate Bond
Scenario 4 Commercial Loan Commercial loan
Interest rates USD IDR Source
1 . Corporate Bond N.A. 1 0.0%Av erage interest from
comparable companies bond
2. Global Bond 5.4% N.A.Pelindo II Global Bond interest
benchmark
3 . Commercial Loan 4.99% 1 1 .5%Av erage interest from
commercial banks
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Financial covenants
26
Project Portiga
3.1.2 Financial covenants
List of existing interest bearing liabilities at Pelindo III level according Management and RJPP 2015-2019
− Export Credit Agency (“ECA”)
• Facility A: USD 62,913,953
• Facility B: USD 58,327,918
• Total facility of USD 121,241,871
− Global bond
• Total facility of USD 500,000,000
ECA financial covenants
− Leverage: Net debt/EBITDA
• maximum of 3.00 x (refer to ECA agreement page 52 and ECA amendment page 4)
− Gearing: Net debt/equity
• maximum of 2.00 x (refer to ECA agreement page 53)
− Interest coverage: EBITDA/Debt service
• minimum of 3.00 x (refer to ECA agreement page 52)
− Debt service coverage: EBITDA/Finance charges and scheduled repayments of borrowings
• minimum of 1.25 x (refer to ECA agreement page 52)
Global bond financial covenants
Pelindo III’s current global bond does not have financial ratio covenants.
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
27
Project Portiga
3.1.2 Financial covenants
Financial covenantsSummary
ECA financial covenants breach summary
Leverage:
Net Debt/
EBITDA
Gearing:
Net Debt/
Equity
Interest
coverage
Debt service
coverage
Scenario 1: Global bond (USD) and Corporate bond
(IDR) Yes No No No
Scenario 2: Global bond (USD) and Commercial loan
(IDR) Yes No No No
Scenario 3: Commercial loan (USD) and Corporate
bond (IDR) Yes No No No
Scenario 4: Commercial loan (USD and IDR) Yes No No No
− It is evident from the table above that under all debt fnancingscenarios, Pelindo III will breach Net debt/EBITDA covenant during FY 2016 due to additional funds required for the capex.
− As we have not done a monthly calculation, we do not analyse the date or month when the covenants will be breached. If Management could not raise the financing timely, Management needs to manage the cash flow (e.g. by delaying capex, cost efficiency, etc.).
− This covenant will also be breached if no additional debt is raised and capex is reduced. Net debt/EBITDA ratio also indicates the financial performance of the company. The high level of Net debt/EBITDA of Pelindo III shows the company has weak financial performance, thus it is important for Pelindo III to be able to manage this ratio.
Source: RJPP and PwC analysis
− This indicates that, in the debt financing scenario, PelindoIII needs an equity injection (e.g. through PenyertaanModal Negara/PMN/ Government equity injection) for the total of needed funds or renegotiation of covenants (including obtaining waiver) with loan issuer.
− Other possible scenario to raise financing (partly) is by continuing the joint operation agreement which assumed the upfront fee to be received in 2016.
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Financial covenantsScenario 1: Global bond (USD) and Corporate bond (IDR)
28
Project Portiga
3.1.2 Financial covenants
Source: RJPP and PwC analysis
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Financial covenantsScenario 2: Global bond (USD) and Commercial loan (IDR)
29
Project Portiga
3.1.2 Financial covenants
Source: RJPP and PwC analysis
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Financial covenantsScenario 3: Commercial loan (USD) and Corporate bond (IDR)
30
Project Portiga
3.1.2 Financial covenants
Source: RJPP and PwC analysis
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Financial covenantsScenario 4: Commercial loan (USD and IDR)
31
Project Portiga
3.1.2 Financial covenants
Source: RJPP and PwC analysis
Contents
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22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
32
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (1 of 4)
33
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net income IDR in mil 67,566 846,286 842,660 842,064 896,818 999,883 1,112,791 1,216,749
Depreciation IDR in mil 40,384 142,237 199,006 233,488 241,006 262,565 283,029 304,698
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (7,360) (12,973) (5,658) (3,010) 614 3,933 4,363 5,573
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (279,628) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil (179,039) 372,050 320,211 514,622 806,171 905,176 1,018,128 1,234,226
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FCFE of TPS 905,176 1,018,128 1,234,226
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees - - -
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - 1,210,533 799,735 (550,836) (543,065) (551,004) (365,363) -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - (38,280) (100,792) (105,732) (69,652) (34,733) (8,564) (0)
(-) Tender cost -
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (53,739) (182,305) (156,903) (252,165) (351,553) - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - (303,240) - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - (834,979) - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil (53,739) 989,949 542,040 (908,733) (2,102,489) 319,439 644,202 1,234,226
Time factor 0.13 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.982 0.895 0.771 0.665 0.573 0.494 0.426 0.367
Present value of FCFE (52,752) 885,665 418,051 (604,194) (1,205,081) 157,838 274,403 453,214
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.983 0.900 0.783 0.681 0.592 0.515 0.448 0.389
Present value of FCFE (52,809) 891,435 424,434 (618,753) (1,244,850) 164,465 288,409 480,490
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,417,699 4,945,627
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,417,699 4,945,627
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,681,663
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (2 of 4)
34
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Net income IDR in mil 1,306,539 1,438,995 1,579,808 1,752,796 1,897,395 2,049,419 2,061,687 2,156,659
Depreciation IDR in mil 313,994 325,747 344,593 305,991 314,683 304,783 322,329 325,129
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 8,432 1,149 (5,945) (5,441) (5,708) (5,389) (234) (3,265)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,523,570 1,515,618 1,414,921 1,432,951 1,807,448 2,232,523 2,012,280 2,308,913
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
FCFE of TPS 1,523,570 1,515,618 1,414,921 1,432,951 1,807,448 2,232,523 2,012,280 2,308,913
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,523,570 1,515,618 1,414,921 1,432,951 1,807,448 2,232,523 2,012,280 2,308,913
Time factor 7.75 8.75 9.75 10.75 11.75 12.75 13.75 14.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.317 0.273 0.235 0.203 0.175 0.151 0.130 0.112
Present value of FCFE 482,295 413,602 332,864 290,608 315,998 336,478 261,451 258,614
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.339 0.294 0.256 0.223 0.194 0.168 0.146 0.127
Present value of FCFE 515,768 446,153 362,183 318,955 349,837 375,749 294,505 293,842
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,417,699 4,945,627
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,417,699 4,945,627
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,681,663
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (3 of 4)
35
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Net income IDR in mil 2,237,621 2,328,080 2,428,277 2,531,994 2,644,968 2,769,171 2,885,317 3,025,705
Depreciation IDR in mil 352,882 374,573 390,220 408,476 422,071 428,776 454,724 457,298
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (3,422) (3,586) (3,760) (3,942) (4,134) (4,335) (4,547) (4,771)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,213,036 2,225,651 2,410,575 2,455,077 2,690,891 2,906,193 2,560,530 3,285,199
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
FCFE of TPS 2,213,036 2,225,651 2,410,575 2,455,077 2,690,891 2,906,193 2,560,530 3,285,199
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 2,213,036 2,225,651 2,410,575 2,455,077 2,690,891 2,906,193 2,560,530 3,285,199
Time factor 15.75 16.75 17.75 18.75 19.75 20.75 21.75 22.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.097 0.083 0.072 0.062 0.053 0.046 0.040 0.034
Present value of FCFE 213,686 185,262 172,978 151,872 143,500 133,605 101,477 112,239
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.111 0.096 0.084 0.073 0.063 0.055 0.048 0.042
Present value of FCFE 244,905 214,175 201,713 178,641 170,260 159,898 122,504 136,674
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,417,699 4,945,627
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,417,699 4,945,627
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,681,663
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (4 of 4)
36
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2039 2040
Net income IDR in mil 3,162,958 3,334,514
Depreciation IDR in mil 473,463 453,799
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (5,006) (5,253)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (569,179) (87,292)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - -
FCFE IDR in mil 3,062,237 3,695,767
12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2039 2040
FCFE of TPS 3,062,237 3,695,767
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - -
(-) Asset buyback - -
(-) Share buyback - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 3,062,237 3,695,767
Time factor 23.75 24.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.029 0.025
Present value of FCFE 90,191 93,836
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.036 0.031
Present value of FCFE 110,781 116,261
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,417,699 4,945,627
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,417,699 4,945,627
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,681,663
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (1 of 4)
37
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net income IDR in mil 67,566 846,286 842,660 842,064 896,818 996,059 1,108,839 1,212,666
Depreciation IDR in mil 40,384 142,237 199,006 233,488 241,006 262,565 283,029 304,698
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (7,360) (12,973) (5,658) (3,010) 614 4,310 4,455 5,663
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (279,628) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil (179,039) 372,050 320,211 514,622 806,171 901,730 1,014,269 1,230,233
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FCFE of TPS 901,730 1,014,269 1,230,233
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - 2,883,000 - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees - 57,756 -
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost (38,440)
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (53,739) (182,305) (156,903) (252,165) (351,553) (390,455) (434,665) (475,365)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil (53,739) 2,662,255 (99,147) (252,165) (351,553) 511,274 579,604 754,868
Time factor 0.13 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.982 0.895 0.771 0.665 0.573 0.494 0.426 0.367
Present value of FCFE (52,752) 2,381,805 (76,468) (167,658) (201,499) 252,626 246,887 277,191
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.983 0.900 0.783 0.681 0.592 0.515 0.448 0.389
Present value of FCFE (52,809) 2,397,322 (77,635) (171,698) (208,149) 263,232 259,489 293,874
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 5,006,091 5,333,691
NPV of incremental FCFE 5,006,091 5,333,691
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,169,891
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (2 of 4)
38
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Net income IDR in mil 1,302,320 1,434,635 1,575,302 1,748,140 1,892,585 2,044,448 2,056,551 2,151,351
Depreciation IDR in mil 313,994 325,747 344,593 305,991 314,683 304,783 322,329 325,129
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 8,528 1,211 (5,921) (5,416) (5,682) (5,363) (207) (3,237)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,519,446 1,511,320 1,410,440 1,428,321 1,802,663 2,227,578 2,007,171 2,303,634
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
FCFE of TPS 1,519,446 1,511,320 1,410,440 1,428,321 1,802,663 2,227,578 2,007,171 2,303,634
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (510,509) (562,377) (617,519) (685,271) (741,893) (801,423) (806,168) (843,329)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,008,937 948,943 792,921 743,050 1,060,770 1,426,155 1,201,003 1,460,304
Time factor 7.75 8.75 9.75 10.75 11.75 12.75 13.75 14.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.317 0.273 0.235 0.203 0.175 0.151 0.130 0.112
Present value of FCFE 319,385 258,960 186,537 150,693 185,456 214,945 156,044 163,564
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.339 0.294 0.256 0.223 0.194 0.168 0.146 0.127
Present value of FCFE 341,551 279,341 202,967 165,393 205,315 240,032 175,772 185,845
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 5,006,091 5,333,691
NPV of incremental FCFE 5,006,091 5,333,691
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,169,891
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (3 of 4)
39
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Net income IDR in mil 2,232,137 2,322,412 2,422,421 2,525,942 2,638,715 2,762,709 2,878,640 3,018,805
Depreciation IDR in mil 352,882 374,573 390,220 408,476 422,071 428,776 454,724 457,298
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (3,393) (3,556) (3,729) (3,910) (4,100) (4,301) (4,512) (4,734)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,207,580 2,220,014 2,404,749 2,449,057 2,684,671 2,899,765 2,553,888 3,278,335
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
FCFE of TPS 2,207,580 2,220,014 2,404,749 2,449,057 2,684,671 2,899,765 2,553,888 3,278,335
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (874,998) (910,386) (949,589) (990,169) (1,034,376) (1,082,982) (1,128,427) (1,183,371)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,332,583 1,309,628 1,455,161 1,458,888 1,650,295 1,816,783 1,425,462 2,094,964
Time factor 15.75 16.75 17.75 18.75 19.75 20.75 21.75 22.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.097 0.083 0.072 0.062 0.053 0.046 0.040 0.034
Present value of FCFE 128,671 109,013 104,419 90,247 88,007 83,522 56,493 71,574
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.111 0.096 0.084 0.073 0.063 0.055 0.048 0.042
Present value of FCFE 147,470 126,026 121,765 106,154 104,419 99,959 68,199 87,157
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 5,006,091 5,333,691
NPV of incremental FCFE 5,006,091 5,333,691
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,169,891
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (4 of 4)
40
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2039 2040
Net income IDR in mil 3,155,828 3,327,146
Depreciation IDR in mil 473,463 453,799
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (4,968) (5,214)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (569,179) (87,292)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - -
FCFE IDR in mil 3,055,144 3,688,439
12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2039 2040
FCFE of TPS 3,055,144 3,688,439
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (1,237,085) (1,304,241)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - (4,689,880)
(-) Asset buyback - (652,867)
(-) Share buyback - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,818,060 (2,958,550)
Time factor 23.75 24.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.029 0.025
Present value of FCFE 53,546 (75,118)
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.036 0.031
Present value of FCFE 65,771 (93,069)
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 5,006,091 5,333,691
NPV of incremental FCFE 5,006,091 5,333,691
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,169,891
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (1 of 4)
41
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net income IDR in mil (99,481) 730,213 697,768 659,853 657,055 731,242 821,975 896,456
Depreciation IDR in mil 17,348 78,478 99,721 105,589 117,553 127,005 132,427 146,371
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 3,912 (12,852) (965) 3,916 11,062 17,829 18,747 20,877
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (279,628) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil (357,850) 192,340 80,727 211,439 453,402 514,872 591,094 770,909
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FCFE of TPS 514,872 591,094 770,909
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees - - -
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - 1,210,533 799,735 (550,836) (543,065) (551,004) (365,363) -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - (38,280) (100,792) (105,732) (69,652) (34,733) (8,564) (0)
(-) Tender cost -
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (31,835) (94,246) (39,556) (103,605) (222,167) - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - (259,770) - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - (834,979) - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil (31,835) 1,078,007 659,387 (760,173) (1,929,633) (70,865) 217,168 770,909
Time factor 0.13 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.982 0.895 0.771 0.665 0.573 0.494 0.426 0.367
Present value of FCFE (31,250) 964,447 508,556 (505,421) (1,106,005) (35,015) 92,504 283,082
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.983 0.900 0.783 0.681 0.592 0.515 0.448 0.389
Present value of FCFE (31,284) 970,730 516,320 (517,599) (1,142,504) (36,485) 97,226 300,119
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 3,053,470 3,416,354
NPV of incremental FCFE 3,053,470 3,416,354
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 3,234,912
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (2 of 4)
42
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Net income IDR in mil 977,454 1,090,496 1,215,753 1,324,448 1,446,866 1,614,075 1,602,268 1,697,350
Depreciation IDR in mil 147,930 150,276 152,841 161,674 171,179 172,306 177,008 178,956
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 22,075 12,175 61 767 (391) (6,628) 5,570 (1,484)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,042,064 1,002,674 865,121 866,495 1,218,732 1,663,464 1,413,345 1,705,213
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
FCFE of TPS 1,042,064 1,002,674 865,121 866,495 1,218,732 1,663,464 1,413,345 1,705,213
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,042,064 1,002,674 865,121 866,495 1,218,732 1,663,464 1,413,345 1,705,213
Time factor 7.75 8.75 9.75 10.75 11.75 12.75 13.75 14.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.317 0.273 0.235 0.203 0.175 0.151 0.130 0.112
Present value of FCFE 329,872 273,623 203,522 175,729 213,072 250,711 183,633 190,996
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.339 0.294 0.256 0.223 0.194 0.168 0.146 0.127
Present value of FCFE 352,766 295,157 221,448 192,870 235,890 279,973 206,849 217,013
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 3,053,470 3,416,354
NPV of incremental FCFE 3,053,470 3,416,354
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 3,234,912
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (3 of 4)
43
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Net income IDR in mil 1,793,360 1,895,704 2,006,814 2,112,021 2,232,606 2,364,819 2,490,260 2,639,886
Depreciation IDR in mil 183,056 186,816 189,333 197,145 201,091 203,163 210,897 212,179
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (1,179) (1,418) (1,904) (742) (1,904) (2,648) (1,246) (3,387)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,601,191 1,607,687 1,790,080 1,826,972 2,059,777 2,277,915 1,924,946 2,655,645
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
FCFE of TPS 1,601,191 1,607,687 1,790,080 1,826,972 2,059,777 2,277,915 1,924,946 2,655,645
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,601,191 1,607,687 1,790,080 1,826,972 2,059,777 2,277,915 1,924,946 2,655,645
Time factor 15.75 16.75 17.75 18.75 19.75 20.75 21.75 22.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.097 0.083 0.072 0.062 0.053 0.046 0.040 0.034
Present value of FCFE 154,607 133,823 128,453 113,017 109,844 104,721 76,288 90,730
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.111 0.096 0.084 0.073 0.063 0.055 0.048 0.042
Present value of FCFE 177,195 154,708 149,791 132,937 130,328 125,331 92,096 110,483
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 3,053,470 3,416,354
NPV of incremental FCFE 3,053,470 3,416,354
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 3,234,912
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (4 of 4)
44
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2039 2040
Net income IDR in mil 2,787,287 2,955,920
Depreciation IDR in mil 217,485 218,236
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (2,422) (4,197)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (569,179) (87,292)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,433,170 3,082,667
12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2039 2040
FCFE of TPS 2,433,170 3,082,667
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - -
(-) Asset buyback - -
(-) Share buyback - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 2,433,170 3,082,667
Time factor 23.75 24.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.029 0.025
Present value of FCFE 71,663 78,269
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.036 0.031
Present value of FCFE 88,024 96,974
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 3,053,470 3,416,354
NPV of incremental FCFE 3,053,470 3,416,354
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 3,234,912
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (1 of 4)
45
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net income IDR in mil (99,481) 730,213 697,768 659,853 657,055 731,242 821,975 896,456
Depreciation IDR in mil 17,348 78,478 99,721 105,589 117,553 127,005 132,427 146,371
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 3,912 (12,852) (965) 3,916 11,062 17,829 18,747 20,877
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (279,628) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil (357,850) 192,340 80,727 211,439 453,402 514,872 591,094 770,909
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FCFE of TPS 514,872 591,094 770,909
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - 2,883,000 - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees - 57,756 -
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost (38,440)
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (31,835) (94,246) (39,556) (103,605) (222,167) (252,287) (289,636) (351,411)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil (31,835) 2,750,314 18,200 (103,605) (222,167) 262,585 301,458 419,499
Time factor 0.13 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.982 0.895 0.771 0.665 0.573 0.494 0.426 0.367
Present value of FCFE (31,250) 2,460,587 14,037 (68,885) (127,339) 129,746 128,408 154,042
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.983 0.900 0.783 0.681 0.592 0.515 0.448 0.389
Present value of FCFE (31,284) 2,476,617 14,251 (70,544) (131,541) 135,193 134,963 163,313
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,232,768 4,462,151
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,232,768 4,462,151
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,347,460
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (2 of 4)
46
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Net income IDR in mil 977,454 1,090,496 1,215,753 1,324,448 1,446,866 1,614,075 1,602,268 1,697,350
Depreciation IDR in mil 147,930 150,276 152,841 161,674 171,179 172,306 177,008 178,956
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 22,075 12,175 61 767 (391) (6,628) 5,570 (1,484)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,042,064 1,002,674 865,121 866,495 1,218,732 1,663,464 1,413,345 1,705,213
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
FCFE of TPS 1,042,064 1,002,674 865,121 866,495 1,218,732 1,663,464 1,413,345 1,705,213
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (383,162) (427,474) (423,909) (424,583) (567,172) (632,717) (628,089) (665,361)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 658,902 575,199 441,211 441,912 651,561 1,030,746 785,256 1,039,852
Time factor 7.75 8.75 9.75 10.75 11.75 12.75 13.75 14.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.317 0.273 0.235 0.203 0.175 0.151 0.130 0.112
Present value of FCFE 208,579 156,968 103,796 89,622 113,913 155,350 102,027 116,471
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.339 0.294 0.256 0.223 0.194 0.168 0.146 0.127
Present value of FCFE 223,055 169,321 112,939 98,364 126,112 173,482 114,925 132,336
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,232,768 4,462,151
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,232,768 4,462,151
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,347,460
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (3 of 4)
47
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Net income IDR in mil 1,793,360 1,895,704 2,006,814 2,112,021 2,232,606 2,364,819 2,490,260 2,639,886
Depreciation IDR in mil 183,056 186,816 189,333 197,145 201,091 203,163 210,897 212,179
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (1,179) (1,418) (1,904) (742) (1,904) (2,648) (1,246) (3,387)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,601,191 1,607,687 1,790,080 1,826,972 2,059,777 2,277,915 1,924,946 2,655,645
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
FCFE of TPS 1,601,191 1,607,687 1,790,080 1,826,972 2,059,777 2,277,915 1,924,946 2,655,645
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (702,997) (743,116) (786,671) (827,912) (875,181) (927,009) (943,224) (1,034,835)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 898,194 864,571 1,003,409 999,060 1,184,596 1,350,906 981,723 1,620,810
Time factor 15.75 16.75 17.75 18.75 19.75 20.75 21.75 22.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.097 0.083 0.072 0.062 0.053 0.046 0.040 0.034
Present value of FCFE 86,727 71,966 72,003 61,802 63,172 62,104 38,907 55,375
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.111 0.096 0.084 0.073 0.063 0.055 0.048 0.042
Present value of FCFE 99,398 83,198 83,964 72,695 74,953 74,327 46,969 67,430
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,232,768 4,462,151
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,232,768 4,462,151
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,347,460
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (4 of 4)
48
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2039 2040
Net income IDR in mil 2,787,287 2,955,920
Depreciation IDR in mil 217,485 218,236
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (2,422) (4,197)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (569,179) (87,292)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,433,170 3,082,667
12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2039 2040
FCFE of TPS 2,433,170 3,082,667
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (1,092,616) (1,158,721)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - (2,249,562)
(-) Asset buyback - (652,867)
(-) Share buyback - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,340,554 (978,482)
Time factor 23.75 24.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.029 0.025
Present value of FCFE 39,483 (24,844)
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.036 0.031
Present value of FCFE 48,497 (30,781)
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,232,768 4,462,151
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,232,768 4,462,151
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,347,460
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(1 of 4)
49
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net income IDR in mil 43,431 819,399 814,692 813,315 866,518 966,905 1,076,783 1,177,848
Depreciation IDR in mil 40,384 142,237 199,006 233,488 241,006 262,565 283,029 304,698
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (5,979) (12,690) (5,504) (2,890) 697 3,978 4,413 5,601
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (279,628) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil (201,793) 345,446 292,397 485,993 775,953 872,243 982,171 1,195,353
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FCFE of TPS 872,243 982,171 1,195,353
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees - - -
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - 1,210,533 799,735 (550,836) (543,065) (551,004) (365,363) -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - (38,280) (100,792) (105,732) (69,652) (34,733) (8,564) (0)
(-) Tender cost -
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (50,952) (169,268) (143,275) (238,137) (339,675) - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - (300,312) - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - (834,979) - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil (50,952) 1,002,985 555,668 (894,705) (2,087,683) 286,506 608,244 1,195,353
Time factor 0.13 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.982 0.895 0.771 0.665 0.573 0.494 0.426 0.367
Present value of FCFE (50,015) 897,328 428,563 (594,867) (1,196,595) 141,566 259,086 438,939
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.983 0.900 0.783 0.681 0.592 0.515 0.448 0.389
Present value of FCFE (50,070) 903,173 435,105 (609,201) (1,236,083) 147,509 272,311 465,356
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,292,569 4,803,405
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,292,569 4,803,405
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,547,987
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(2 of 4)
50
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Net income IDR in mil 1,265,188 1,394,277 1,531,421 1,700,929 1,841,875 1,990,342 2,001,403 2,093,697
Depreciation IDR in mil 313,994 325,747 344,593 305,991 314,683 304,783 322,329 325,129
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 8,415 1,232 (5,773) (5,277) (5,536) (5,220) (165) (3,132)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,482,202 1,470,983 1,366,706 1,381,248 1,752,100 2,173,615 1,952,065 2,246,084
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
FCFE of TPS 1,482,202 1,470,983 1,366,706 1,381,248 1,752,100 2,173,615 1,952,065 2,246,084
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,482,202 1,470,983 1,366,706 1,381,248 1,752,100 2,173,615 1,952,065 2,246,084
Time factor 7.75 8.75 9.75 10.75 11.75 12.75 13.75 14.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.317 0.273 0.235 0.203 0.175 0.151 0.130 0.112
Present value of FCFE 469,200 401,421 321,521 280,123 306,322 327,599 253,628 251,577
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.339 0.294 0.256 0.223 0.194 0.168 0.146 0.127
Present value of FCFE 501,763 433,014 349,841 307,447 339,125 365,835 285,693 285,847
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,292,569 4,803,405
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,292,569 4,803,405
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,547,987
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(3 of 4)
51
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Net income IDR in mil 2,171,849 2,259,358 2,356,459 2,456,924 2,566,483 2,687,100 2,799,481 2,935,913
Depreciation IDR in mil 352,882 374,573 390,220 408,476 422,071 428,776 454,724 457,298
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (3,282) (3,440) (3,606) (3,780) (3,964) (4,157) (4,360) (4,574)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,147,403 2,157,076 2,338,910 2,380,168 2,612,576 2,824,301 2,474,881 3,195,603
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
FCFE of TPS 2,147,403 2,157,076 2,338,910 2,380,168 2,612,576 2,824,301 2,474,881 3,195,603
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 2,147,403 2,157,076 2,338,910 2,380,168 2,612,576 2,824,301 2,474,881 3,195,603
Time factor 15.75 16.75 17.75 18.75 19.75 20.75 21.75 22.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.097 0.083 0.072 0.062 0.053 0.046 0.040 0.034
Present value of FCFE 207,348 179,554 167,836 147,238 139,323 129,840 98,083 109,178
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.111 0.096 0.084 0.073 0.063 0.055 0.048 0.042
Present value of FCFE 237,642 207,576 195,716 173,190 165,305 155,393 118,407 132,947
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,292,569 4,803,405
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,292,569 4,803,405
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,547,987
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(4 of 4)
52
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2039 2040
Net income IDR in mil 3,069,011 3,236,201
Depreciation IDR in mil 473,463 453,799
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (4,799) (5,036)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (569,179) (87,292)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,968,495 3,597,671
12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2039 2040
FCFE of TPS 2,968,495 3,597,671
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - -
(-) Asset buyback - -
(-) Share buyback - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 2,968,495 3,597,671
Time factor 23.75 24.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.029 0.025
Present value of FCFE 87,430 91,345
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.036 0.031
Present value of FCFE 107,390 113,175
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,292,569 4,803,405
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,292,569 4,803,405
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,547,987
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(1 of 4)
53
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net income IDR in mil 43,431 819,399 814,692 813,315 866,518 963,004 1,072,752 1,173,683
Depreciation IDR in mil 40,384 142,237 199,006 233,488 241,006 262,565 283,029 304,698
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (5,979) (12,690) (5,504) (2,890) 697 4,363 4,507 5,693
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (279,628) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil (201,793) 345,446 292,397 485,993 775,953 868,728 978,234 1,191,280
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FCFE of TPS 868,728 978,234 1,191,280
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - 2,883,000 - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees - 57,756 -
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost (38,440)
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (50,952) (169,268) (143,275) (238,137) (339,675) (377,498) (420,519) (460,084)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil (50,952) 2,675,292 (85,519) (238,137) (339,675) 491,230 557,715 731,196
Time factor 0.13 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.982 0.895 0.771 0.665 0.573 0.494 0.426 0.367
Present value of FCFE (50,015) 2,393,468 (65,957) (158,331) (194,691) 242,722 237,563 268,499
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.983 0.900 0.783 0.681 0.592 0.515 0.448 0.389
Present value of FCFE (50,070) 2,409,061 (66,964) (162,146) (201,116) 252,912 249,689 284,658
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,948,403 5,266,652
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,948,403 5,266,652
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,107,527
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(2 of 4)
54
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Net income IDR in mil 1,260,884 1,389,830 1,526,826 1,696,180 1,836,968 1,985,271 1,996,163 2,088,283
Depreciation IDR in mil 313,994 325,747 344,593 305,991 314,683 304,783 322,329 325,129
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 8,513 1,295 (5,749) (5,252) (5,510) (5,193) (137) (3,104)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,477,996 1,466,599 1,362,135 1,376,525 1,747,219 2,168,571 1,946,853 2,240,699
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
FCFE of TPS 1,477,996 1,466,599 1,362,135 1,376,525 1,747,219 2,168,571 1,946,853 2,240,699
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (494,267) (544,813) (598,516) (664,903) (720,091) (778,226) (782,496) (818,607)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 983,729 921,786 763,619 711,622 1,027,128 1,390,345 1,164,357 1,422,092
Time factor 7.75 8.75 9.75 10.75 11.75 12.75 13.75 14.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.317 0.273 0.235 0.203 0.175 0.151 0.130 0.112
Present value of FCFE 311,405 251,549 179,643 144,320 179,574 209,548 151,283 159,284
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.339 0.294 0.256 0.223 0.194 0.168 0.146 0.127
Present value of FCFE 333,018 271,346 195,467 158,397 198,804 234,005 170,408 180,982
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,948,403 5,266,652
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,948,403 5,266,652
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,107,527
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(3 of 4)
55
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Net income IDR in mil 2,166,255 2,253,577 2,350,485 2,450,751 2,560,105 2,680,509 2,792,670 2,928,875
Depreciation IDR in mil 352,882 374,573 390,220 408,476 422,071 428,776 454,724 457,298
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (3,253) (3,409) (3,574) (3,748) (3,930) (4,122) (4,324) (4,537)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,141,839 2,151,325 2,332,968 2,374,028 2,606,231 2,817,744 2,468,106 3,188,603
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
FCFE of TPS 2,141,839 2,151,325 2,332,968 2,374,028 2,606,231 2,817,744 2,468,106 3,188,603
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (849,172) (883,402) (921,390) (960,694) (1,003,561) (1,050,760) (1,094,727) (1,148,119)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,292,667 1,267,923 1,411,578 1,413,334 1,602,670 1,766,985 1,373,380 2,040,484
Time factor 15.75 16.75 17.75 18.75 19.75 20.75 21.75 22.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.097 0.083 0.072 0.062 0.053 0.046 0.040 0.034
Present value of FCFE 124,817 105,541 101,292 87,429 85,467 81,232 54,429 69,713
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.111 0.096 0.084 0.073 0.063 0.055 0.048 0.042
Present value of FCFE 143,053 122,012 118,119 102,840 101,406 97,219 65,707 84,890
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,948,403 5,266,652
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,948,403 5,266,652
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,107,527
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(4 of 4)
56
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2039 2040
Net income IDR in mil 3,061,738 3,228,686
Depreciation IDR in mil 473,463 453,799
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (4,761) (4,996)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (569,179) (87,292)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,961,261 3,590,196
12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2039 2040
FCFE of TPS 2,961,261 3,590,196
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (1,200,201) (1,265,645)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - (4,556,620)
(-) Asset buyback - (652,867)
(-) Share buyback - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,761,060 (2,884,936)
Time factor 23.75 24.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.029 0.025
Present value of FCFE 51,868 (73,249)
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.036 0.031
Present value of FCFE 63,709 (90,754)
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,948,403 5,266,652
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,948,403 5,266,652
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,107,527
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (1 of 4)
57
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net income IDR in mil 67,566 846,286 842,660 842,064 896,818 999,883 1,112,791 1,216,749
Depreciation IDR in mil 40,384 142,237 199,006 233,488 241,006 262,565 283,029 304,698
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (7,360) (12,973) (5,658) (3,010) 614 3,933 4,363 5,573
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (279,628) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil (179,039) 372,050 320,211 514,622 806,171 905,176 1,018,128 1,234,226
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FCFE of TPS 905,176 1,018,128 1,234,226
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees - - -
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - 1,210,533 799,735 (550,836) (543,065) (551,004) (268,665) -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - (38,280) (100,792) (105,732) (69,652) (34,733) (8,564) (0)
(-) Tender cost -
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (53,739) (182,305) (156,903) (252,165) (351,553) - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - (303,240) - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - (834,979) - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil (53,739) 989,949 542,040 (908,733) (2,102,489) 319,439 740,900 1,234,226
Time factor 0.13 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.982 0.895 0.771 0.665 0.573 0.494 0.426 0.367
Present value of FCFE (52,752) 885,665 418,051 (604,194) (1,205,081) 157,838 315,592 453,214
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.983 0.900 0.783 0.681 0.592 0.515 0.448 0.389
Present value of FCFE (52,809) 891,435 424,434 (618,753) (1,244,850) 164,465 331,701 480,490
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,678,653 5,247,543
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,678,653 5,247,543
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,963,098
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (2 of 4)
58
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Net income IDR in mil 1,306,539 1,438,995 1,579,808 1,752,796 1,897,395 2,049,419 2,149,004 2,340,722
Depreciation IDR in mil 313,994 325,747 344,593 305,991 314,683 304,783 322,329 325,129
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 8,432 1,149 (5,945) (5,441) (5,708) (5,389) (3,981) (7,417)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,523,570 1,515,618 1,414,921 1,432,951 1,807,448 2,232,523 2,095,850 2,488,825
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
FCFE of TPS 1,523,570 1,515,618 1,414,921 1,432,951 1,807,448 2,232,523 2,095,850 2,488,825
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,523,570 1,515,618 1,414,921 1,432,951 1,807,448 2,232,523 2,095,850 2,488,825
Time factor 7.75 8.75 9.75 10.75 11.75 12.75 13.75 14.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.317 0.273 0.235 0.203 0.175 0.151 0.130 0.112
Present value of FCFE 482,295 413,602 332,864 290,608 315,998 336,478 272,309 278,765
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.339 0.294 0.256 0.223 0.194 0.168 0.146 0.127
Present value of FCFE 515,768 446,153 362,183 318,955 349,837 375,749 306,736 316,739
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,678,653 5,247,543
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,678,653 5,247,543
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,963,098
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (3 of 4)
59
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Net income IDR in mil 2,528,625 2,634,798 2,751,558 2,872,732 3,004,106 3,147,702 3,284,289 3,446,221
Depreciation IDR in mil 352,882 374,573 390,220 408,476 422,071 428,776 454,724 457,298
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (8,011) (4,261) (4,470) (4,691) (4,923) (5,167) (5,425) (5,695)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,499,451 2,531,695 2,733,145 2,795,066 3,049,239 3,283,892 2,958,625 3,704,791
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
FCFE of TPS 2,499,451 2,531,695 2,733,145 2,795,066 3,049,239 3,283,892 2,958,625 3,704,791
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 2,499,451 2,531,695 2,733,145 2,795,066 3,049,239 3,283,892 2,958,625 3,704,791
Time factor 15.75 16.75 17.75 18.75 19.75 20.75 21.75 22.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.097 0.083 0.072 0.062 0.053 0.046 0.040 0.034
Present value of FCFE 241,341 210,737 196,125 172,904 162,610 150,968 117,254 126,574
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.111 0.096 0.084 0.073 0.063 0.055 0.048 0.042
Present value of FCFE 276,601 243,625 228,705 203,380 192,934 180,679 141,551 154,130
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,678,653 5,247,543
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,678,653 5,247,543
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,963,098
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (4 of 4)
60
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2039 2040
Net income IDR in mil 3,606,183 3,801,672
Depreciation IDR in mil 473,463 453,799
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (5,980) (6,280)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (569,179) (87,292)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - -
FCFE IDR in mil 3,504,486 4,161,898
12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2039 2040
FCFE of TPS 3,504,486 4,161,898
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) (0) (0)
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) - -
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - -
(-) Asset buyback - -
(-) Share buyback - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 3,504,486 4,161,898
Time factor 23.75 24.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.029 0.025
Present value of FCFE 103,216 105,671
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.036 0.031
Present value of FCFE 126,780 130,924
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 4,678,653 5,247,543
NPV of incremental FCFE 4,678,653 5,247,543
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 4,963,098
Contents
![Page 183: PORTIGA - Final Report Phase I](https://reader031.vdocuments.us/reader031/viewer/2022013106/577c85a91a28abe054be1a5b/html5/thumbnails/183.jpg)
PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (1 of 4)
61
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Net income IDR in mil 67,566 846,286 842,660 842,064 896,818 996,059 1,108,839 1,212,666
Depreciation IDR in mil 40,384 142,237 199,006 233,488 241,006 262,565 283,029 304,698
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (7,360) (12,973) (5,658) (3,010) 614 4,310 4,455 5,663
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (279,628) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil (179,039) 372,050 320,211 514,622 806,171 901,730 1,014,269 1,230,233
3 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
FCFE of TPS 901,730 1,014,269 1,230,233
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - 2,883,000 - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees - 57,756 -
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost (38,440)
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (53,739) (182,305) (156,903) (252,165) (351,553) (390,455) (434,665) (475,365)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil (53,739) 2,662,255 (99,147) (252,165) (351,553) 511,274 579,604 754,868
Time factor 0.13 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.75 4.75 5.75 6.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.982 0.895 0.771 0.665 0.573 0.494 0.426 0.367
Present value of FCFE (52,752) 2,381,805 (76,468) (167,658) (201,499) 252,626 246,887 277,191
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.983 0.900 0.783 0.681 0.592 0.515 0.448 0.389
Present value of FCFE (52,809) 2,397,322 (77,635) (171,698) (208,149) 263,232 259,489 293,874
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 5,129,317 5,478,124
NPV of incremental FCFE 5,129,317 5,478,124
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,303,721
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (2 of 4)
62
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Net income IDR in mil 1,302,320 1,434,635 1,575,302 1,748,140 1,892,585 2,044,448 2,143,867 2,335,414
Depreciation IDR in mil 313,994 325,747 344,593 305,991 314,683 304,783 322,329 325,129
Changes in working capital IDR in mil 8,528 1,211 (5,921) (5,416) (5,682) (5,363) (3,954) (7,389)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 1,519,446 1,511,320 1,410,440 1,428,321 1,802,663 2,227,578 2,090,740 2,483,545
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
FCFE of TPS 1,519,446 1,511,320 1,410,440 1,428,321 1,802,663 2,227,578 2,090,740 2,483,545
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (510,509) (562,377) (617,519) (685,271) (741,893) (801,423) (840,396) (915,482)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,008,937 948,943 792,921 743,050 1,060,770 1,426,155 1,250,344 1,568,063
Time factor 7.75 8.75 9.75 10.75 11.75 12.75 13.75 14.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.317 0.273 0.235 0.203 0.175 0.151 0.130 0.112
Present value of FCFE 319,385 258,960 186,537 150,693 185,456 214,945 162,455 175,634
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.339 0.294 0.256 0.223 0.194 0.168 0.146 0.127
Present value of FCFE 341,551 279,341 202,967 165,393 205,315 240,032 182,993 199,559
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 5,129,317 5,478,124
NPV of incremental FCFE 5,129,317 5,478,124
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,303,721
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (3 of 4)
63
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Net income IDR in mil 2,523,140 2,629,130 2,745,701 2,866,680 2,997,852 3,141,240 3,277,612 3,439,321
Depreciation IDR in mil 352,882 374,573 390,220 408,476 422,071 428,776 454,724 457,298
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (7,982) (4,231) (4,439) (4,659) (4,890) (5,133) (5,389) (5,659)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - - - - - - - -
FCFE IDR in mil 2,493,995 2,526,057 2,727,319 2,789,046 3,043,019 3,277,464 2,951,983 3,697,927
12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
FCFE of TPS 2,493,995 2,526,057 2,727,319 2,789,046 3,043,019 3,277,464 2,951,983 3,697,927
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - - - - - - - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - - - - - - - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - - - - - - - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (989,071) (1,030,619) (1,076,315) (1,123,739) (1,175,158) (1,231,366) (1,284,824) (1,348,214)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - - - - - - - -
(-) Asset buyback - - - - - - - -
(-) Share buyback - - - - - - - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 1,504,924 1,495,438 1,651,004 1,665,307 1,867,861 2,046,098 1,667,159 2,349,713
Time factor 15.75 16.75 17.75 18.75 19.75 20.75 21.75 22.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.097 0.083 0.072 0.062 0.053 0.046 0.040 0.034
Present value of FCFE 145,312 124,479 118,473 103,017 99,609 94,064 66,072 80,278
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.111 0.096 0.084 0.073 0.063 0.055 0.048 0.042
Present value of FCFE 166,542 143,906 138,153 121,174 118,185 112,576 79,763 97,755
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 5,129,317 5,478,124
NPV of incremental FCFE 5,129,317 5,478,124
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,303,721
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (4 of 4)
64
Project Portiga
3.2 Incremental free cash flow to Pelindo III analysis
12 Months 12 Months
Free cash flow to Equity ("FCFE") of TPS 2039 2040
Net income IDR in mil 3,599,053 3,794,305
Depreciation IDR in mil 473,463 453,799
Changes in working capital IDR in mil (5,942) (6,241)
Capital expenditure IDR in mil (569,179) (87,292)
Net borrowings IDR in mil - -
FCFE IDR in mil 3,497,394 4,154,570
12 Months 12 Months
Incremental cash flow to Pelindo III 2039 2040
FCFE of TPS 3,497,394 4,154,570
(+) Upfront fees (net off tax) - -
(+) Interest saving from upfront fees
(+) Change in net borrowings to Pelindo - -
(-) Interest (minus 25% tax shield) - -
(-) Tender cost
(-) Dividend to partner (gross of witholding tax) (1,410,829) (1,487,367)
(-) Dividend contribution to partner at the end
of cooperation (gross of witholding tax) - (5,072,122)
(-) Asset buyback - (652,867)
(-) Share buyback - -
Incremental FCFE to Pelindo III IDR in mil 2,086,566 (3,057,786)
Time factor 23.75 24.75
Low
Ke 16.0% 16.0%
Discount factor 0.029 0.025
Present value of FCFE 61,455 (77,638)
High
Ke 15.0% 15.0%
Discount factor 0.036 0.031
Present value of FCFE 75,485 (96,191)
IDR in millions Low High
NPV of incremental FCFE (2015F - 2040F) 5,129,317 5,478,124
NPV of incremental FCFE 5,129,317 5,478,124
Mid NPV of incremental FCFE 5,303,721
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Discount rate calculation
65
Project Portiga
3.3 Discount rate calculation Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Comparable companies
66
Project Portiga
3.3 Discount rate calculation
Selected Comparables for Port
Project Portiga
No. Company Name Country Description
1 Dong Nai Port JSC Vietnam Dong Nai Port JSC is a port operator. The Company provides cargo handling, warehousing, maritime agency, and
transportation of goods.
2 Adani Ports Adani Ports and Special
Economic Zone
India Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone operates a shipping port on the west coast of India. The Company's port
provides services for bulk and container cargo, crude oil, and railway and other added services.
3 Westports Holdings Berhad Malaysia Westports Holdings Berhad provides port services. The Company offers container and cargo services, marine
services, rental services and other ancillary services. Westports provides its services to the import and export
industries.
4 Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf Holdings
Ltd
China Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf Holdings Ltd. operates the Chiwan Port in Shenzhen. The Company handles,
warehouses, and transports containers and bulk and general cargoes.
5 Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd India Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd. operates a marine shipping port. The port loads and unloads container, bulk, and liquid
cargo.
6 Xiamen International Port Company
Ltd
Hongkong Xiamen International Port Company Ltd. offers shipping port services. The Company loads, unloads, and stores
shipping containers, loads and unloads general cargo, and offers shipping agency, tallying, tugboat berthing and
unberthing, and other port related services. Xiamen International also manufactures building materials.
7 Asian Terminal Inc Philippines Asian Terminals, Inc. provides general service to the Philippine port terminals. The Company's services include
general cargo handling, container terminal handling, stevedoring, and storage
management services.
8 Dinh Vu Port Investment &
Development JSC
Vietnam Dinh Vu Port Investment & Development JSC owns and operates the Dinh Vu Port. The Company is involved in port
development, general cargo, container, dry bulk and combined terminals.
Source: Bloomberg
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Beta
67
Project Portiga
3.3 Discount rate calculation
Comparable Companies Beta
Project Portiga
10% 20%
1 Dong Nai Port JSC Vietnam 54 0.6 0.0 17% 0.5 0.5 0.6
2 Adani Ports Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone India 60 0.9 0.2 26% 0.6 0.7 0.8
3 Westports Holdings Berhad Malaysia 23 0.2 0.0 9% 0.2 0.2 0.2
4 Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf Holdings Ltd China 55 1.0 0.7 6% 1.0 1.1 1.2
5 Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd India 60 1.0 0.1 9% 0.9 1.0 1.1
6 Xiamen International Port Company Ltd Hongkong 60 1.5 0.3 36% 0.9 1.0 1.2
7 Asian Terminal Inc Philippines 60 0.8 0.3 0% 0.8 0.9 1.0
8 Dinh Vu Port Investment & Development JSC Vietnam 60 0.5 0.1 12% 0.5 0.5 0.6
Average 0.8 14% 0.7 0.7 0.8
Median 0.9 10% 0.7 0.8 0.9
High 1.5 36% 1.0 1.1 1.2
Low 0.2 0% 0.2 0.2 0.2
Average - normalised 17% 0.9 1.0
Median - normalised 12% 0.9 1.1
Source: Bloomberg
Note:
1 Equity betas from Bloomberg (monthly, 5 years), as at 30 September 2015)
2 Gearing ratio: [d / (d+e)]. Average gearing ratio 2011-2015
3 Equity betas have been ungeared using the Miller formula. Formula for ungearing equity beta: equity beta * (1 - [d / (d+e)])
4 Asset betas of comparable companies is regeared back using the target gearing ratio
5 Comparables are chosen on the basis of industry sector and statistically sufficient number of beta observations.
Normalised based on monthly observation lower than 60 and R2
No. Company Country
Number
of Monthly
Observations
Equity
Beta1)
R2
3 Years
Average
Gearing Asset Beta3)
Regeared Beta with Debt
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Cost of equity
68
Project Portiga
3.3 Discount rate calculation
Discount Rate Calculation
Project Portiga
Description Low High Notes
Rf 8.5% 8.5% Long-term Indonesian Government
Securities Yield Curve and PwC
Analysis
EMRP 7.5% 7.5% Empirical research
Beta (ß) 0.9 1.0 Equity beta selected based on an
analysis of comparable companies
Ke 15.0% 15.8% Rf + ß ( EMRP)
Selected Ke 15.0% 16.0%
• Based on the analysis of comparable companies, we arrive at the selected cost of equity of 15.0% to 16.0%.
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Charts
69
Project Portiga
3.4 Charts Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Revenue, expenses, net income and EBITDA marginScenario 1 & 2 - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation
70
Project Portiga
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Revenue, expenses, net income and EBITDA marginScenario 3 & 4 - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation
71
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Revenue, expenses, net income and EBITDA marginScenario 5 & 6 - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%
72
Project Portiga
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Revenue, expenses, net income and EBITDA marginScenario 7 & 8 - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs
73
Project Portiga
3.4 ChartsS
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and loss projection of TPS
74
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (1 of 12)
75
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Throughput 1,369 1,398 1,466 1,541 1,624 1,715 1,812 1,885
Domestic volume TEU'000 163 179 196 217 240 267 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,206 1,220 1,270 1,325 1,384 1,448 1,517 1,591
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,087,899 1,270,748 1,302,278 1,304,353 1,363,249 1,513,475 1,681,170 1,846,616
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 278,761 290,379 310,619 333,009 357,852 385,506 415,349 440,766
Container Yard Storage 375,980 391,650 418,949 449,147 482,654 519,953 560,204 594,485
Ancillary Revenue 215,383 241,355 251,127 257,883 272,374 298,969 328,359 356,186
Total Revenue 1,958,023 2,194,133 2,282,973 2,344,391 2,476,129 2,717,903 2,985,082 3,238,053
Operating Expenses
Payroll 164,862 184,741 192,222 197,393 208,485 228,842 251,338 272,637
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 98,469 110,343 114,811 117,900 124,525 136,684 150,121 162,842
Operations 59,983 67,216 69,938 71,820 75,855 83,262 91,447 99,197
Engineering 6,409 7,182 7,472 7,673 8,105 8,896 9,770 10,598
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 89,133 99,881 103,926 106,721 112,718 123,724 135,887 147,403
Equipment Hire 15,980 17,907 18,632 19,133 20,208 22,181 24,362 26,427
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 101,887 114,173 118,796 121,992 128,847 141,428 155,330 168,494
Electricity & Water 20,914 23,436 24,385 25,041 26,448 29,031 31,884 34,586
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 742 831 865 888 938 1,030 1,131 1,227
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 195,802 219,413 228,297 234,439 247,613 271,790 298,508 323,805
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 1,967 2,204 2,293 2,355 2,487 2,730 2,999 3,253
Total Operating Expenses 591,287 662,587 689,415 707,963 747,745 820,756 901,439 977,832
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (2 of 12)
76
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 94,465 100,606 106,441 112,402 118,471 124,869 131,612 138,719
Mgmt/G&A 38,310 40,800 43,166 45,584 48,045 50,640 53,374 56,256
Operations 38,822 41,346 43,744 46,193 48,688 51,317 54,088 57,009
Engineering 10,099 10,756 11,379 12,017 12,666 13,350 14,070 14,830
Safety 3,449 3,673 3,886 4,104 4,326 4,559 4,805 5,065
Security 2,762 2,942 3,112 3,287 3,464 3,651 3,848 4,056
Others 1,023 1,089 1,153 1,217 1,283 1,352 1,425 1,502
Facility Rent 3,169 3,375 3,571 3,770 3,974 4,189 4,415 4,653
Facilities Maintenance 24,503 26,095 27,609 29,155 30,729 32,389 34,138 35,981
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 2,949 3,141 3,323 3,509 3,699 3,898 4,109 4,331
Professional/Legal Expenses 3,064 3,263 3,453 3,646 3,843 4,050 4,269 4,500
Audit fees 509 543 574 606 639 673 710 748
Insurance 10,661 11,354 12,013 12,685 13,370 14,092 14,853 15,655
Security Charges 6,594 7,023 7,430 7,846 8,270 8,716 9,187 9,683
Cargo Claims/Accidents 738 786 831 878 925 975 1,028 1,083
Travel & Accommodation 6,476 6,897 7,297 7,706 8,122 8,560 9,023 9,510
Communications 829 883 934 986 1,039 1,095 1,155 1,217
Office Services & Supplies 5,878 6,260 6,623 6,994 7,372 7,770 8,189 8,632
Training & Development 2,183 2,325 2,460 2,597 2,738 2,885 3,041 3,205
IT Expenses 9,078 9,668 10,229 10,802 11,385 12,000 12,648 13,331
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 3,113 3,315 3,507 3,704 3,904 4,115 4,337 4,571
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 7,908 8,422 8,911 9,410 9,918 10,453 11,018 11,613
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 38,018 43,053 41,090 38,105 36,901 38,131 39,402 40,716
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 5,084 5,757 5,494 5,095 4,934 - - -
Misc Expenses (including pension) 4,706 5,011 5,302 5,599 5,901 6,220 6,556 6,910
Redundancy Cost 12,348 13,151 13,914 14,693 15,486 16,323 17,204 18,133
Total Overhead Expenses 242,273 260,927 271,005 280,188 291,621 301,405 316,893 333,191
Total Expenses 833,560 923,514 960,420 988,151 1,039,366 1,122,161 1,218,332 1,311,022
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (3 of 12)
77
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA 1,124,463 1,270,618 1,322,553 1,356,241 1,436,764 1,595,742 1,766,750 1,927,031
EBITDA Margin % 57% 58% 58% 58% 58% 59% 59% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (97,528) (142,237) (199,006) (233,488) (241,006) (262,565) (283,029) (304,698)
EBIT 1,026,935 1,128,382 1,123,547 1,122,753 1,195,757 1,333,177 1,483,721 1,622,332
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (256,734) (282,095) (280,887) (280,688) (298,939) (333,294) (370,930) (405,583)
PAT 770,201 846,286 842,660 842,064 896,818 999,883 1,112,791 1,216,749
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (4 of 12)
78
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Throughput 1,925 2,004 2,086 2,149 2,214 2,281 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,631 1,710 1,792 1,855 1,920 1,987 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,989,617 2,186,284 2,402,966 2,611,708 2,838,938 3,086,311 3,132,038 3,300,579
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 459,229 487,548 517,757 543,991 568,048 579,409 590,998 602,818
Container Yard Storage 619,388 657,583 698,328 733,710 766,158 781,481 797,110 813,053
Ancillary Revenue 379,220 411,748 447,298 480,714 515,782 549,654 558,670 582,932
Total Revenue 3,447,454 3,743,163 4,066,349 4,370,123 4,688,926 4,996,855 5,078,815 5,299,381
Operating Expenses
Payroll 290,269 315,167 342,378 367,955 394,798 420,725 427,626 446,197
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 173,373 188,245 204,498 219,775 235,807 251,293 255,415 266,507
Operations 105,612 114,670 124,571 133,877 143,644 153,077 155,588 162,345
Engineering 11,284 12,252 13,309 14,304 15,347 16,355 16,623 17,345
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 156,935 170,396 185,108 198,937 213,449 227,467 231,198 241,239
Equipment Hire 28,135 30,549 33,186 35,666 38,267 40,780 41,449 43,249
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 179,390 194,778 211,595 227,402 243,991 260,014 264,279 275,756
Electricity & Water 36,823 39,982 43,434 46,678 50,083 53,373 54,248 56,604
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 1,306 1,418 1,541 1,656 1,776 1,893 1,924 2,008
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 344,745 374,316 406,635 437,012 468,893 499,686 507,882 529,938
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 3,463 3,760 4,085 4,390 4,710 5,019 5,102 5,323
Total Operating Expenses 1,041,067 1,130,366 1,227,962 1,319,696 1,415,968 1,508,957 1,533,708 1,600,315
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (5 of 12)
79
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 146,209 154,105 162,426 171,197 180,442 190,186 200,456 211,281
Mgmt/G&A 59,294 62,496 65,871 69,428 73,177 77,128 81,293 85,683
Operations 60,087 63,332 66,752 70,357 74,156 78,160 82,381 86,830
Engineering 15,631 16,475 17,365 18,303 19,291 20,333 21,431 22,588
Safety 5,338 5,627 5,931 6,251 6,588 6,944 7,319 7,714
Security 4,275 4,506 4,749 5,006 5,276 5,561 5,861 6,178
Others 1,583 1,669 1,759 1,854 1,954 2,060 2,171 2,288
Facility Rent 4,905 5,169 5,449 5,743 6,053 6,380 6,724 7,087
Facilities Maintenance 37,924 39,972 42,130 44,405 46,803 49,331 51,994 54,802
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 4,565 4,811 5,071 5,345 5,634 5,938 6,258 6,596
Professional/Legal Expenses 4,743 4,999 5,269 5,553 5,853 6,169 6,502 6,853
Audit fees 789 831 876 923 973 1,026 1,081 1,140
Insurance 16,501 17,392 18,331 19,321 20,364 21,464 22,623 23,844
Security Charges 10,206 10,757 11,338 11,950 12,596 13,276 13,993 14,748
Cargo Claims/Accidents 1,142 1,204 1,269 1,337 1,409 1,485 1,566 1,650
Travel & Accommodation 10,024 10,565 11,135 11,737 12,370 13,038 13,742 14,485
Communications 1,283 1,352 1,425 1,502 1,583 1,668 1,759 1,853
Office Services & Supplies 9,098 9,589 10,107 10,653 11,228 11,834 12,473 13,147
Training & Development 3,379 3,561 3,753 3,956 4,170 4,395 4,632 4,882
IT Expenses 14,050 14,809 15,609 16,452 17,340 18,276 19,263 20,304
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 4,818 5,078 5,352 5,641 5,946 6,267 6,605 6,962
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 12,240 12,901 13,598 14,332 15,106 15,922 16,781 17,687
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 42,073 43,475 44,924 46,422 47,969 49,568 51,221 52,928
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion - - - - - - - -
Misc Expenses (including pension) 7,283 7,676 8,091 8,528 8,988 9,474 9,985 10,524
Redundancy Cost 19,112 20,144 21,232 22,379 23,587 24,861 26,203 27,618
Total Overhead Expenses 350,341 368,390 387,385 407,375 428,414 450,557 473,863 498,393
Total Expenses 1,391,408 1,498,756 1,615,347 1,727,071 1,844,382 1,959,514 2,007,571 2,098,707
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (6 of 12)
80
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EBITDA 2,056,046 2,244,407 2,451,003 2,643,052 2,844,543 3,037,341 3,071,245 3,200,674
EBITDA Margin % 60% 60% 60% 60% 61% 61% 60% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (313,994) (325,747) (344,593) (305,991) (314,683) (304,783) (322,329) (325,129)
EBIT 1,742,052 1,918,660 2,106,410 2,337,061 2,529,861 2,732,558 2,748,916 2,875,545
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (435,513) (479,665) (526,603) (584,265) (632,465) (683,140) (687,229) (718,886)
PAT 1,306,539 1,438,995 1,579,808 1,752,796 1,897,395 2,049,419 2,061,687 2,156,659
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (7 of 12)
81
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Throughput 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 3,478,209 3,665,418 3,862,723 4,070,669 4,289,829 4,520,811 4,764,250 5,020,821
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 614,874 627,171 639,715 652,509 665,559 678,870 692,448 706,297
Container Yard Storage 829,314 845,900 862,818 880,074 897,676 915,629 933,942 952,621
Ancillary Revenue 608,386 635,094 663,121 692,537 723,412 755,825 789,854 825,586
Total Revenue 5,530,783 5,773,584 6,028,377 6,295,789 6,576,477 6,871,135 7,180,495 7,505,324
Operating Expenses
Payroll 465,681 486,124 507,577 530,093 553,726 578,536 604,583 631,933
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 278,144 290,355 303,169 316,617 330,733 345,551 361,109 377,445
Operations 169,434 176,872 184,677 192,869 201,468 210,495 219,972 229,923
Engineering 18,103 18,897 19,731 20,607 21,525 22,490 23,502 24,565
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 251,772 262,825 274,424 286,597 299,375 312,788 326,871 341,658
Equipment Hire 45,138 47,120 49,199 51,381 53,672 56,077 58,602 61,253
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 287,797 300,432 313,690 327,605 342,211 357,543 373,641 390,544
Electricity & Water 59,076 61,669 64,390 67,247 70,245 73,392 76,697 80,166
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 2,095 2,187 2,284 2,385 2,492 2,603 2,720 2,843
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 553,078 577,358 602,838 629,579 657,648 687,114 718,049 750,532
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 5,556 5,800 6,056 6,324 6,606 6,902 7,213 7,539
Total Operating Expenses 1,670,193 1,743,515 1,820,458 1,901,211 1,985,974 2,074,955 2,168,376 2,266,468
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (8 of 12)
82
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 222,690 234,715 247,390 260,749 274,829 289,670 305,312 321,799
Mgmt/G&A 90,310 95,187 100,327 105,745 111,455 117,473 123,817 130,503
Operations 91,518 96,460 101,669 107,159 112,946 119,045 125,474 132,249
Engineering 23,808 25,093 26,448 27,876 29,382 30,968 32,641 34,403
Safety 8,131 8,570 9,033 9,520 10,035 10,576 11,148 11,750
Security 6,511 6,863 7,233 7,624 8,036 8,470 8,927 9,409
Others 2,412 2,542 2,679 2,824 2,976 3,137 3,306 3,485
Facility Rent 7,470 7,873 8,299 8,747 9,219 9,717 10,242 10,795
Facilities Maintenance 57,761 60,881 64,168 67,633 71,285 75,135 79,192 83,468
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 6,953 7,328 7,724 8,141 8,580 9,044 9,532 10,047
Professional/Legal Expenses 7,224 7,614 8,025 8,458 8,915 9,396 9,904 10,438
Audit fees 1,201 1,266 1,334 1,406 1,482 1,562 1,647 1,736
Insurance 25,132 26,489 27,920 29,427 31,016 32,691 34,456 36,317
Security Charges 15,545 16,384 17,269 18,201 19,184 20,220 21,312 22,463
Cargo Claims/Accidents 1,739 1,833 1,932 2,037 2,146 2,262 2,385 2,513
Travel & Accommodation 15,267 16,091 16,960 17,876 18,841 19,859 20,931 22,061
Communications 1,954 2,059 2,170 2,287 2,411 2,541 2,678 2,823
Office Services & Supplies 13,857 14,605 15,394 16,225 17,101 18,024 18,998 20,024
Training & Development 5,146 5,424 5,717 6,025 6,351 6,694 7,055 7,436
IT Expenses 21,400 22,556 23,774 25,057 26,410 27,837 29,340 30,924
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 7,338 7,734 8,152 8,592 9,056 9,545 10,060 10,604
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 18,643 19,649 20,710 21,829 23,007 24,250 25,559 26,940
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 54,692 56,515 58,399 60,346 62,357 64,436 66,584 68,803
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion - - - - - - - -
Misc Expenses (including pension) 11,093 11,692 12,323 12,989 13,690 14,429 15,208 16,030
Redundancy Cost 29,110 30,682 32,338 34,085 35,925 37,865 39,910 42,065
Total Overhead Expenses 524,212 551,389 579,996 610,109 641,808 675,177 710,305 747,285
Total Expenses 2,194,406 2,294,904 2,400,454 2,511,320 2,627,782 2,750,132 2,878,681 3,013,753
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (9 of 12)
83
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
EBITDA 3,336,377 3,478,680 3,627,923 3,784,469 3,948,695 4,121,003 4,301,814 4,491,571
EBITDA Margin % 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (352,882) (374,573) (390,220) (408,476) (422,071) (428,776) (454,724) (457,298)
EBIT 2,983,495 3,104,107 3,237,703 3,375,992 3,526,624 3,692,228 3,847,090 4,034,273
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (745,874) (776,027) (809,426) (843,998) (881,656) (923,057) (961,772) (1,008,568)
PAT 2,237,621 2,328,080 2,428,277 2,531,994 2,644,968 2,769,171 2,885,317 3,025,705
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (10 of 12)
84
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Throughput 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 5,291,231 5,576,228
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 720,423 734,831
Container Yard Storage 971,673 991,107
Ancillary Revenue 863,108 902,515
Total Revenue 7,846,435 8,204,681
Operating Expenses
Payroll 660,654 690,817
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 394,599 412,615
Operations 240,373 251,347
Engineering 25,682 26,855
Others - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 357,186 373,494
Equipment Hire 64,037 66,960
Facilities Rent - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 408,294 426,935
Electricity & Water 83,810 87,636
Transportation - -
Security Charges 2,973 3,108
Insurance - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - -
Business/Turnover Tax - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 784,644 820,468
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 7,882 8,242
Total Operating Expenses 2,369,477 2,477,661
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (11 of 12)
85
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 339,176 357,491
Mgmt/G&A 137,550 144,978
Operations 139,391 146,918
Engineering 36,261 38,219
Safety 12,384 13,053
Security 9,917 10,453
Others 3,673 3,871
Facility Rent 11,377 11,992
Facilities Maintenance 87,976 92,726
Electricity & Water - -
Company Car & Bus 10,589 11,161
Professional/Legal Expenses 11,002 11,596
Audit fees 1,829 1,928
Insurance 38,278 40,345
Security Charges 23,676 24,954
Cargo Claims/Accidents 2,649 2,792
Travel & Accommodation 23,253 24,508
Communications 2,975 3,136
Office Services & Supplies 21,105 22,245
Training & Development 7,838 8,261
IT Expenses 32,594 34,354
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 11,176 11,780
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 28,394 29,928
Shared Services Allocation - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 71,097 73,467
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion - -
Misc Expenses (including pension) 16,895 17,808
Redundancy Cost 44,337 46,731
Total Overhead Expenses 786,217 827,203
Total Expenses 3,155,694 3,304,864
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (12 of 12)
86
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
EBITDA 4,690,741 4,899,817
EBITDA Margin % 60% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (473,463) (453,799)
EBIT 4,217,278 4,446,019
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax (1,054,319) (1,111,505)
PAT 3,162,958 3,334,514
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (1 of 12)
87
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Throughput 1,369 1,398 1,466 1,541 1,624 1,715 1,812 1,885
Domestic volume TEU'000 163 179 196 217 240 267 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,206 1,220 1,270 1,325 1,384 1,448 1,517 1,591
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,087,899 1,270,748 1,302,278 1,304,353 1,363,249 1,513,475 1,681,170 1,846,616
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 278,761 290,379 310,619 333,009 357,852 385,506 415,349 440,766
Container Yard Storage 375,980 391,650 418,949 449,147 482,654 519,953 560,204 594,485
Ancillary Revenue 215,383 241,355 251,127 257,883 272,374 298,969 328,359 356,186
Total Revenue 1,958,023 2,194,133 2,282,973 2,344,391 2,476,129 2,717,903 2,985,082 3,238,053
Operating Expenses
Payroll 164,862 184,741 192,222 197,393 208,485 228,842 251,338 272,637
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 98,469 110,343 114,811 117,900 124,525 136,684 150,121 162,842
Operations 59,983 67,216 69,938 71,820 75,855 83,262 91,447 99,197
Engineering 6,409 7,182 7,472 7,673 8,105 8,896 9,770 10,598
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 89,133 99,881 103,926 106,721 112,718 123,724 135,887 147,403
Equipment Hire 15,980 17,907 18,632 19,133 20,208 22,181 24,362 26,427
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 101,887 114,173 118,796 121,992 128,847 141,428 155,330 168,494
Electricity & Water 20,914 23,436 24,385 25,041 26,448 29,031 31,884 34,586
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 742 831 865 888 938 1,030 1,131 1,227
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 195,802 219,413 228,297 234,439 247,613 271,790 298,508 323,805
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 1,967 2,204 2,293 2,355 2,487 2,730 2,999 3,253
Total Operating Expenses 591,287 662,587 689,415 707,963 747,745 820,756 901,439 977,832
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (2 of 12)
88
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 94,465 100,606 106,441 112,402 118,471 124,869 131,612 138,719
Mgmt/G&A 38,310 40,800 43,166 45,584 48,045 50,640 53,374 56,256
Operations 38,822 41,346 43,744 46,193 48,688 51,317 54,088 57,009
Engineering 10,099 10,756 11,379 12,017 12,666 13,350 14,070 14,830
Safety 3,449 3,673 3,886 4,104 4,326 4,559 4,805 5,065
Security 2,762 2,942 3,112 3,287 3,464 3,651 3,848 4,056
Others 1,023 1,089 1,153 1,217 1,283 1,352 1,425 1,502
Facility Rent 3,169 3,375 3,571 3,770 3,974 4,189 4,415 4,653
Facilities Maintenance 24,503 26,095 27,609 29,155 30,729 32,389 34,138 35,981
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 2,949 3,141 3,323 3,509 3,699 3,898 4,109 4,331
Professional/Legal Expenses 3,064 3,263 3,453 3,646 3,843 4,050 4,269 4,500
Audit fees 509 543 574 606 639 673 710 748
Insurance 10,661 11,354 12,013 12,685 13,370 14,092 14,853 15,655
Security Charges 6,594 7,023 7,430 7,846 8,270 8,716 9,187 9,683
Cargo Claims/Accidents 738 786 831 878 925 975 1,028 1,083
Travel & Accommodation 6,476 6,897 7,297 7,706 8,122 8,560 9,023 9,510
Communications 829 883 934 986 1,039 1,095 1,155 1,217
Office Services & Supplies 5,878 6,260 6,623 6,994 7,372 7,770 8,189 8,632
Training & Development 2,183 2,325 2,460 2,597 2,738 2,885 3,041 3,205
IT Expenses 9,078 9,668 10,229 10,802 11,385 12,000 12,648 13,331
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 3,113 3,315 3,507 3,704 3,904 4,115 4,337 4,571
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 7,908 8,422 8,911 9,410 9,918 10,453 11,018 11,613
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 38,018 43,053 41,090 38,105 36,901 38,131 39,402 40,716
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 5,084 5,757 5,494 5,095 4,934 5,099 5,269 5,444
Misc Expenses (including pension) 4,706 5,011 5,302 5,599 5,901 6,220 6,556 6,910
Redundancy Cost 12,348 13,151 13,914 14,693 15,486 16,323 17,204 18,133
Total Overhead Expenses 242,273 260,927 271,005 280,188 291,621 306,504 322,161 338,635
Total Expenses 833,560 923,514 960,420 988,151 1,039,366 1,127,260 1,223,600 1,316,467
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (3 of 12)
89
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA 1,124,463 1,270,618 1,322,553 1,356,241 1,436,764 1,590,644 1,761,481 1,921,587
EBITDA Margin % 57% 58% 58% 58% 58% 59% 59% 59%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (97,528) (142,237) (199,006) (233,488) (241,006) (262,565) (283,029) (304,698)
EBIT 1,026,935 1,128,382 1,123,547 1,122,753 1,195,757 1,328,079 1,478,452 1,616,888
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (256,734) (282,095) (280,887) (280,688) (298,939) (332,020) (369,613) (404,222)
PAT 770,201 846,286 842,660 842,064 896,818 996,059 1,108,839 1,212,666
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (4 of 12)
90
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Throughput 1,925 2,004 2,086 2,149 2,214 2,281 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,631 1,710 1,792 1,855 1,920 1,987 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,989,617 2,186,284 2,402,966 2,611,708 2,838,938 3,086,311 3,132,038 3,300,579
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 459,229 487,548 517,757 543,991 568,048 579,409 590,998 602,818
Container Yard Storage 619,388 657,583 698,328 733,710 766,158 781,481 797,110 813,053
Ancillary Revenue 379,220 411,748 447,298 480,714 515,782 549,654 558,670 582,932
Total Revenue 3,447,454 3,743,163 4,066,349 4,370,123 4,688,926 4,996,855 5,078,815 5,299,381
Operating Expenses
Payroll 290,269 315,167 342,378 367,955 394,798 420,725 427,626 446,197
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 173,373 188,245 204,498 219,775 235,807 251,293 255,415 266,507
Operations 105,612 114,670 124,571 133,877 143,644 153,077 155,588 162,345
Engineering 11,284 12,252 13,309 14,304 15,347 16,355 16,623 17,345
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 156,935 170,396 185,108 198,937 213,449 227,467 231,198 241,239
Equipment Hire 28,135 30,549 33,186 35,666 38,267 40,780 41,449 43,249
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 179,390 194,778 211,595 227,402 243,991 260,014 264,279 275,756
Electricity & Water 36,823 39,982 43,434 46,678 50,083 53,373 54,248 56,604
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 1,306 1,418 1,541 1,656 1,776 1,893 1,924 2,008
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 344,745 374,316 406,635 437,012 468,893 499,686 507,882 529,938
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 3,463 3,760 4,085 4,390 4,710 5,019 5,102 5,323
Total Operating Expenses 1,041,067 1,130,366 1,227,962 1,319,696 1,415,968 1,508,957 1,533,708 1,600,315
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (5 of 12)
91
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 146,209 154,105 162,426 171,197 180,442 190,186 200,456 211,281
Mgmt/G&A 59,294 62,496 65,871 69,428 73,177 77,128 81,293 85,683
Operations 60,087 63,332 66,752 70,357 74,156 78,160 82,381 86,830
Engineering 15,631 16,475 17,365 18,303 19,291 20,333 21,431 22,588
Safety 5,338 5,627 5,931 6,251 6,588 6,944 7,319 7,714
Security 4,275 4,506 4,749 5,006 5,276 5,561 5,861 6,178
Others 1,583 1,669 1,759 1,854 1,954 2,060 2,171 2,288
Facility Rent 4,905 5,169 5,449 5,743 6,053 6,380 6,724 7,087
Facilities Maintenance 37,924 39,972 42,130 44,405 46,803 49,331 51,994 54,802
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 4,565 4,811 5,071 5,345 5,634 5,938 6,258 6,596
Professional/Legal Expenses 4,743 4,999 5,269 5,553 5,853 6,169 6,502 6,853
Audit fees 789 831 876 923 973 1,026 1,081 1,140
Insurance 16,501 17,392 18,331 19,321 20,364 21,464 22,623 23,844
Security Charges 10,206 10,757 11,338 11,950 12,596 13,276 13,993 14,748
Cargo Claims/Accidents 1,142 1,204 1,269 1,337 1,409 1,485 1,566 1,650
Travel & Accommodation 10,024 10,565 11,135 11,737 12,370 13,038 13,742 14,485
Communications 1,283 1,352 1,425 1,502 1,583 1,668 1,759 1,853
Office Services & Supplies 9,098 9,589 10,107 10,653 11,228 11,834 12,473 13,147
Training & Development 3,379 3,561 3,753 3,956 4,170 4,395 4,632 4,882
IT Expenses 14,050 14,809 15,609 16,452 17,340 18,276 19,263 20,304
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 4,818 5,078 5,352 5,641 5,946 6,267 6,605 6,962
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 12,240 12,901 13,598 14,332 15,106 15,922 16,781 17,687
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 42,073 43,475 44,924 46,422 47,969 49,568 51,221 52,928
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 5,626 5,813 6,007 6,207 6,414 6,628 6,849 7,077
Misc Expenses (including pension) 7,283 7,676 8,091 8,528 8,988 9,474 9,985 10,524
Redundancy Cost 19,112 20,144 21,232 22,379 23,587 24,861 26,203 27,618
Total Overhead Expenses 355,967 374,204 393,392 413,583 434,828 457,185 480,712 505,470
Total Expenses 1,397,034 1,504,569 1,621,354 1,733,278 1,850,797 1,966,142 2,014,419 2,105,785
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (6 of 12)
92
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EBITDA 2,050,420 2,238,594 2,444,996 2,636,845 2,838,129 3,030,713 3,064,396 3,193,597
EBITDA Margin % 59% 60% 60% 60% 61% 61% 60% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (313,994) (325,747) (344,593) (305,991) (314,683) (304,783) (322,329) (325,129)
EBIT 1,736,426 1,912,847 2,100,403 2,330,854 2,523,446 2,725,930 2,742,067 2,868,468
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (434,107) (478,212) (525,101) (582,713) (630,862) (681,483) (685,517) (717,117)
PAT 1,302,320 1,434,635 1,575,302 1,748,140 1,892,585 2,044,448 2,056,551 2,151,351
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (7 of 12)
93
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Throughput 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 3,478,209 3,665,418 3,862,723 4,070,669 4,289,829 4,520,811 4,764,250 5,020,821
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 614,874 627,171 639,715 652,509 665,559 678,870 692,448 706,297
Container Yard Storage 829,314 845,900 862,818 880,074 897,676 915,629 933,942 952,621
Ancillary Revenue 608,386 635,094 663,121 692,537 723,412 755,825 789,854 825,586
Total Revenue 5,530,783 5,773,584 6,028,377 6,295,789 6,576,477 6,871,135 7,180,495 7,505,324
Operating Expenses
Payroll 465,681 486,124 507,577 530,093 553,726 578,536 604,583 631,933
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 278,144 290,355 303,169 316,617 330,733 345,551 361,109 377,445
Operations 169,434 176,872 184,677 192,869 201,468 210,495 219,972 229,923
Engineering 18,103 18,897 19,731 20,607 21,525 22,490 23,502 24,565
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 251,772 262,825 274,424 286,597 299,375 312,788 326,871 341,658
Equipment Hire 45,138 47,120 49,199 51,381 53,672 56,077 58,602 61,253
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 287,797 300,432 313,690 327,605 342,211 357,543 373,641 390,544
Electricity & Water 59,076 61,669 64,390 67,247 70,245 73,392 76,697 80,166
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 2,095 2,187 2,284 2,385 2,492 2,603 2,720 2,843
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 553,078 577,358 602,838 629,579 657,648 687,114 718,049 750,532
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 5,556 5,800 6,056 6,324 6,606 6,902 7,213 7,539
Total Operating Expenses 1,670,193 1,743,515 1,820,458 1,901,211 1,985,974 2,074,955 2,168,376 2,266,468
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (8 of 12)
94
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 222,690 234,715 247,390 260,749 274,829 289,670 305,312 321,799
Mgmt/G&A 90,310 95,187 100,327 105,745 111,455 117,473 123,817 130,503
Operations 91,518 96,460 101,669 107,159 112,946 119,045 125,474 132,249
Engineering 23,808 25,093 26,448 27,876 29,382 30,968 32,641 34,403
Safety 8,131 8,570 9,033 9,520 10,035 10,576 11,148 11,750
Security 6,511 6,863 7,233 7,624 8,036 8,470 8,927 9,409
Others 2,412 2,542 2,679 2,824 2,976 3,137 3,306 3,485
Facility Rent 7,470 7,873 8,299 8,747 9,219 9,717 10,242 10,795
Facilities Maintenance 57,761 60,881 64,168 67,633 71,285 75,135 79,192 83,468
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 6,953 7,328 7,724 8,141 8,580 9,044 9,532 10,047
Professional/Legal Expenses 7,224 7,614 8,025 8,458 8,915 9,396 9,904 10,438
Audit fees 1,201 1,266 1,334 1,406 1,482 1,562 1,647 1,736
Insurance 25,132 26,489 27,920 29,427 31,016 32,691 34,456 36,317
Security Charges 15,545 16,384 17,269 18,201 19,184 20,220 21,312 22,463
Cargo Claims/Accidents 1,739 1,833 1,932 2,037 2,146 2,262 2,385 2,513
Travel & Accommodation 15,267 16,091 16,960 17,876 18,841 19,859 20,931 22,061
Communications 1,954 2,059 2,170 2,287 2,411 2,541 2,678 2,823
Office Services & Supplies 13,857 14,605 15,394 16,225 17,101 18,024 18,998 20,024
Training & Development 5,146 5,424 5,717 6,025 6,351 6,694 7,055 7,436
IT Expenses 21,400 22,556 23,774 25,057 26,410 27,837 29,340 30,924
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 7,338 7,734 8,152 8,592 9,056 9,545 10,060 10,604
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 18,643 19,649 20,710 21,829 23,007 24,250 25,559 26,940
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 54,692 56,515 58,399 60,346 62,357 64,436 66,584 68,803
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 7,313 7,557 7,809 8,069 8,338 8,616 8,903 9,200
Misc Expenses (including pension) 11,093 11,692 12,323 12,989 13,690 14,429 15,208 16,030
Redundancy Cost 29,110 30,682 32,338 34,085 35,925 37,865 39,910 42,065
Total Overhead Expenses 531,525 558,946 587,805 618,178 650,146 683,793 719,208 756,485
Total Expenses 2,201,719 2,302,461 2,408,263 2,519,389 2,636,120 2,758,748 2,887,584 3,022,953
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (9 of 12)
95
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
EBITDA 3,329,064 3,471,123 3,620,114 3,776,399 3,940,357 4,112,387 4,292,911 4,482,371
EBITDA Margin % 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (352,882) (374,573) (390,220) (408,476) (422,071) (428,776) (454,724) (457,298)
EBIT 2,976,182 3,096,550 3,229,894 3,367,923 3,518,286 3,683,612 3,838,186 4,025,073
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (744,046) (774,137) (807,474) (841,981) (879,572) (920,903) (959,547) (1,006,268)
PAT 2,232,137 2,322,412 2,422,421 2,525,942 2,638,715 2,762,709 2,878,640 3,018,805
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (10 of 12)
96
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Throughput 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 5,291,231 5,576,228
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 720,423 734,831
Container Yard Storage 971,673 991,107
Ancillary Revenue 863,108 902,515
Total Revenue 7,846,435 8,204,681
Operating Expenses
Payroll 660,654 690,817
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 394,599 412,615
Operations 240,373 251,347
Engineering 25,682 26,855
Others - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 357,186 373,494
Equipment Hire 64,037 66,960
Facilities Rent - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 408,294 426,935
Electricity & Water 83,810 87,636
Transportation - -
Security Charges 2,973 3,108
Insurance - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - -
Business/Turnover Tax - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 784,644 820,468
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 7,882 8,242
Total Operating Expenses 2,369,477 2,477,661
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (11 of 12)
97
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 339,176 357,491
Mgmt/G&A 137,550 144,978
Operations 139,391 146,918
Engineering 36,261 38,219
Safety 12,384 13,053
Security 9,917 10,453
Others 3,673 3,871
Facility Rent 11,377 11,992
Facilities Maintenance 87,976 92,726
Electricity & Water - -
Company Car & Bus 10,589 11,161
Professional/Legal Expenses 11,002 11,596
Audit fees 1,829 1,928
Insurance 38,278 40,345
Security Charges 23,676 24,954
Cargo Claims/Accidents 2,649 2,792
Travel & Accommodation 23,253 24,508
Communications 2,975 3,136
Office Services & Supplies 21,105 22,245
Training & Development 7,838 8,261
IT Expenses 32,594 34,354
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 11,176 11,780
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 28,394 29,928
Shared Services Allocation - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 71,097 73,467
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 9,507 9,824
Misc Expenses (including pension) 16,895 17,808
Redundancy Cost 44,337 46,731
Total Overhead Expenses 795,723 837,027
Total Expenses 3,165,201 3,314,688
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (12 of 12)
98
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
EBITDA 4,681,235 4,889,994
EBITDA Margin % 60% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (473,463) (453,799)
EBIT 4,207,771 4,436,195
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax (1,051,943) (1,109,049)
PAT 3,155,828 3,327,146
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (1 of 4)
99
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Throughput 1,369 1,398 1,466 1,541 1,624 1,715 1,812 1,885
Domestic volume TEU'000 163 179 196 217 240 267 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,206 1,220 1,270 1,325 1,384 1,448 1,517 1,591
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,087,899 1,270,748 1,302,278 1,304,353 1,363,249 1,513,475 1,681,170 1,846,616
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 278,761 290,379 310,619 333,009 357,852 385,506 415,349 440,766
Container Yard Storage 375,980 391,650 418,949 449,147 482,654 519,953 560,204 594,485
Ancillary Revenue 215,383 241,355 251,127 257,883 272,374 298,969 328,359 356,186
Total Revenue 1,958,023 2,194,133 2,282,973 2,344,391 2,476,129 2,717,903 2,985,082 3,238,053
Total Operating Expenses 591,287 662,587 689,415 707,963 747,745 820,756 901,439 977,832
Total Overhead Expenses 242,273 260,927 271,005 280,188 291,621 301,405 316,893 333,191
Total Expenses 1,079,326 1,142,037 1,252,895 1,358,998 1,482,502 1,615,908 1,756,688 1,896,407
EBITDA 878,697 1,052,096 1,030,078 985,394 993,627 1,101,995 1,228,393 1,341,646
EBITDA Margin % 45% 48% 45% 42% 40% 41% 41% 41%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (74,493) (78,478) (99,721) (105,589) (117,553) (127,005) (132,427) (146,371)
EBIT 804,205 973,618 930,357 879,804 876,074 974,990 1,095,967 1,195,275
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (201,051) (243,404) (232,589) (219,951) (219,018) (243,747) (273,992) (298,819)
PAT 603,154 730,213 697,768 659,853 657,055 731,242 821,975 896,456
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (2 of 4)
100
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Throughput 1,925 2,004 2,086 2,149 2,214 2,281 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,631 1,710 1,792 1,855 1,920 1,987 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,989,617 2,186,284 2,402,966 2,611,708 2,838,938 3,086,311 3,132,038 3,300,579
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 459,229 487,548 517,757 543,991 568,048 579,409 590,998 602,818
Container Yard Storage 619,388 657,583 698,328 733,710 766,158 781,481 797,110 813,053
Ancillary Revenue 379,220 411,748 447,298 480,714 515,782 549,654 558,670 582,932
Total Revenue 3,447,454 3,743,163 4,066,349 4,370,123 4,688,926 4,996,855 5,078,815 5,299,381
Total Operating Expenses 1,041,067 1,130,366 1,227,962 1,319,696 1,415,968 1,508,957 1,533,708 1,600,315
Total Overhead Expenses 350,341 368,390 387,385 407,375 428,414 450,557 473,863 498,393
Total Expenses 1,996,252 2,138,893 2,292,505 2,442,518 2,588,592 2,672,449 2,765,450 2,857,292
EBITDA 1,451,202 1,604,271 1,773,845 1,927,606 2,100,334 2,324,406 2,313,365 2,442,089
EBITDA Margin % 42% 43% 44% 44% 45% 47% 46% 46%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (147,930) (150,276) (152,841) (161,674) (171,179) (172,306) (177,008) (178,956)
EBIT 1,303,272 1,453,995 1,621,003 1,765,931 1,929,155 2,152,100 2,136,357 2,263,133
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (325,818) (363,499) (405,251) (441,483) (482,289) (538,025) (534,089) (565,783)
PAT 977,454 1,090,496 1,215,753 1,324,448 1,446,866 1,614,075 1,602,268 1,697,350
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (3 of 4)
101
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Throughput 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 3,478,209 3,665,418 3,862,723 4,070,669 4,289,829 4,520,811 4,764,250 5,020,821
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 614,874 627,171 639,715 652,509 665,559 678,870 692,448 706,297
Container Yard Storage 829,314 845,900 862,818 880,074 897,676 915,629 933,942 952,621
Ancillary Revenue 608,386 635,094 663,121 692,537 723,412 755,825 789,854 825,586
Total Revenue 5,530,783 5,773,584 6,028,377 6,295,789 6,576,477 6,871,135 7,180,495 7,505,324
Total Operating Expenses 1,670,193 1,743,515 1,820,458 1,901,211 1,985,974 2,074,955 2,168,376 2,266,468
Total Overhead Expenses 524,212 551,389 579,996 610,109 641,808 675,177 710,305 747,285
Total Expenses 2,956,580 3,059,162 3,163,292 3,282,616 3,398,579 3,514,881 3,649,252 3,773,298
EBITDA 2,574,203 2,714,422 2,865,085 3,013,173 3,177,898 3,356,254 3,531,243 3,732,027
EBITDA Margin % 47% 47% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 50%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (183,056) (186,816) (189,333) (197,145) (201,091) (203,163) (210,897) (212,179)
EBIT 2,391,147 2,527,606 2,675,752 2,816,028 2,976,808 3,153,091 3,320,347 3,519,848
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (597,787) (631,901) (668,938) (704,007) (744,202) (788,273) (830,087) (879,962)
PAT 1,793,360 1,895,704 2,006,814 2,112,021 2,232,606 2,364,819 2,490,260 2,639,886
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (4 of 4)
102
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Throughput 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 5,291,231 5,576,228
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 720,423 734,831
Container Yard Storage 971,673 991,107
Ancillary Revenue 863,108 902,515
Total Revenue 7,846,435 8,204,681
Total Operating Expenses 2,369,477 2,477,661
Total Overhead Expenses 786,217 827,203
Total Expenses 3,912,568 4,045,219
EBITDA 3,933,867 4,159,462
EBITDA Margin % 50% 51%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (217,485) (218,236)
EBIT 3,716,382 3,941,227
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax (929,096) (985,307)
PAT 2,787,287 2,955,920
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (1 of 4)
103
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Throughput 1,369 1,398 1,466 1,541 1,624 1,715 1,812 1,885
Domestic volume TEU'000 163 179 196 217 240 267 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,206 1,220 1,270 1,325 1,384 1,448 1,517 1,591
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,087,899 1,270,748 1,302,278 1,304,353 1,363,249 1,513,475 1,681,170 1,846,616
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 278,761 290,379 310,619 333,009 357,852 385,506 415,349 440,766
Container Yard Storage 375,980 391,650 418,949 449,147 482,654 519,953 560,204 594,485
Ancillary Revenue 215,383 241,355 251,127 257,883 272,374 298,969 328,359 356,186
Total Revenue 1,958,023 2,194,133 2,282,973 2,344,391 2,476,129 2,717,903 2,985,082 3,238,053
Total Operating Expenses 591,287 662,587 689,415 707,963 747,745 820,756 901,439 977,832
Total Overhead Expenses 242,273 260,927 271,005 280,188 291,621 306,504 322,161 338,635
Total Expenses 1,079,326 1,142,037 1,252,895 1,358,998 1,482,502 1,615,908 1,756,688 1,896,407
EBITDA 878,697 1,052,096 1,030,078 985,394 993,627 1,101,995 1,228,393 1,341,646
EBITDA Margin % 45% 48% 45% 42% 40% 41% 41% 41%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (74,493) (78,478) (99,721) (105,589) (117,553) (127,005) (132,427) (146,371)
EBIT 804,205 973,618 930,357 879,804 876,074 974,990 1,095,967 1,195,275
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (201,051) (243,404) (232,589) (219,951) (219,018) (243,747) (273,992) (298,819)
PAT 603,154 730,213 697,768 659,853 657,055 731,242 821,975 896,456
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (2 of 4)
104
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Throughput 1,925 2,004 2,086 2,149 2,214 2,281 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,631 1,710 1,792 1,855 1,920 1,987 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,989,617 2,186,284 2,402,966 2,611,708 2,838,938 3,086,311 3,132,038 3,300,579
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 459,229 487,548 517,757 543,991 568,048 579,409 590,998 602,818
Container Yard Storage 619,388 657,583 698,328 733,710 766,158 781,481 797,110 813,053
Ancillary Revenue 379,220 411,748 447,298 480,714 515,782 549,654 558,670 582,932
Total Revenue 3,447,454 3,743,163 4,066,349 4,370,123 4,688,926 4,996,855 5,078,815 5,299,381
Total Operating Expenses 1,041,067 1,130,366 1,227,962 1,319,696 1,415,968 1,508,957 1,533,708 1,600,315
Total Overhead Expenses 355,967 374,204 393,392 413,583 434,828 457,185 480,712 505,470
Total Expenses 1,996,252 2,138,893 2,292,505 2,442,518 2,588,592 2,672,449 2,765,450 2,857,292
EBITDA 1,451,202 1,604,271 1,773,845 1,927,606 2,100,334 2,324,406 2,313,365 2,442,089
EBITDA Margin % 42% 43% 44% 44% 45% 47% 46% 46%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (147,930) (150,276) (152,841) (161,674) (171,179) (172,306) (177,008) (178,956)
EBIT 1,303,272 1,453,995 1,621,003 1,765,931 1,929,155 2,152,100 2,136,357 2,263,133
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (325,818) (363,499) (405,251) (441,483) (482,289) (538,025) (534,089) (565,783)
PAT 977,454 1,090,496 1,215,753 1,324,448 1,446,866 1,614,075 1,602,268 1,697,350
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (3 of 4)
105
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Throughput 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 3,478,209 3,665,418 3,862,723 4,070,669 4,289,829 4,520,811 4,764,250 5,020,821
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 614,874 627,171 639,715 652,509 665,559 678,870 692,448 706,297
Container Yard Storage 829,314 845,900 862,818 880,074 897,676 915,629 933,942 952,621
Ancillary Revenue 608,386 635,094 663,121 692,537 723,412 755,825 789,854 825,586
Total Revenue 5,530,783 5,773,584 6,028,377 6,295,789 6,576,477 6,871,135 7,180,495 7,505,324
Total Operating Expenses 1,670,193 1,743,515 1,820,458 1,901,211 1,985,974 2,074,955 2,168,376 2,266,468
Total Overhead Expenses 531,525 558,946 587,805 618,178 650,146 683,793 719,208 756,485
Total Expenses 2,956,580 3,059,162 3,163,292 3,282,616 3,398,579 3,514,881 3,649,252 3,773,298
EBITDA 2,574,203 2,714,422 2,865,085 3,013,173 3,177,898 3,356,254 3,531,243 3,732,027
EBITDA Margin % 47% 47% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 50%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (183,056) (186,816) (189,333) (197,145) (201,091) (203,163) (210,897) (212,179)
EBIT 2,391,147 2,527,606 2,675,752 2,816,028 2,976,808 3,153,091 3,320,347 3,519,848
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (597,787) (631,901) (668,938) (704,007) (744,202) (788,273) (830,087) (879,962)
PAT 1,793,360 1,895,704 2,006,814 2,112,021 2,232,606 2,364,819 2,490,260 2,639,886
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (4 of 4)
106
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Throughput 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 5,291,231 5,576,228
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 720,423 734,831
Container Yard Storage 971,673 991,107
Ancillary Revenue 863,108 902,515
Total Revenue 7,846,435 8,204,681
Total Operating Expenses 2,369,477 2,477,661
Total Overhead Expenses 795,723 837,027
Total Expenses 3,912,568 4,045,219
EBITDA 3,933,867 4,159,462
EBITDA Margin % 50% 51%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (217,485) (218,236)
EBIT 3,716,382 3,941,227
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax (929,096) (985,307)
PAT 2,787,287 2,955,920
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(1 of 4)
107
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Throughput 1,369 1,398 1,466 1,541 1,624 1,715 1,812 1,885
Domestic volume TEU'000 163 179 196 217 240 267 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,206 1,220 1,270 1,325 1,384 1,448 1,517 1,591
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,087,899 1,270,748 1,302,278 1,304,353 1,363,249 1,513,475 1,681,170 1,846,616
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 278,761 290,379 310,619 333,009 357,852 385,506 415,349 440,766
Container Yard Storage 375,980 391,650 418,949 449,147 482,654 519,953 560,204 594,485
Ancillary Revenue 215,383 241,355 251,127 257,883 272,374 298,969 328,359 356,186
Total Revenue 1,918,863 2,150,250 2,237,314 2,297,504 2,426,607 2,663,545 2,925,380 3,173,292
Total Operating Expenses 579,461 649,335 675,627 693,803 732,790 804,341 883,410 958,275
Total Overhead Expenses 247,119 266,146 276,425 285,792 297,453 307,433 323,231 339,854
Total Expenses 826,580 915,481 952,052 979,595 1,030,243 1,111,774 1,206,641 1,298,130
EBITDA 1,092,283 1,234,769 1,285,262 1,317,908 1,396,364 1,551,771 1,718,739 1,875,163
EBITDA Margin % 57% 57% 57% 57% 58% 58% 59% 59%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (97,528) (142,237) (199,006) (233,488) (241,006) (262,565) (283,029) (304,698)
EBIT 994,755 1,092,532 1,086,256 1,084,420 1,155,357 1,289,206 1,435,710 1,570,464
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (248,689) (273,133) (271,564) (271,105) (288,839) (322,302) (358,928) (392,616)
PAT 746,066 819,399 814,692 813,315 866,518 966,905 1,076,783 1,177,848
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(2 of 4)
108
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Throughput 1,925 2,004 2,086 2,149 2,214 2,281 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,631 1,710 1,792 1,855 1,920 1,987 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,989,617 2,186,284 2,402,966 2,611,708 2,838,938 3,086,311 3,132,038 3,300,579
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 459,229 487,548 517,757 543,991 568,048 579,409 590,998 602,818
Container Yard Storage 619,388 657,583 698,328 733,710 766,158 781,481 797,110 813,053
Ancillary Revenue 379,220 411,748 447,298 480,714 515,782 549,654 558,670 582,932
Total Revenue 3,378,505 3,668,300 3,985,022 4,282,721 4,595,147 4,896,918 4,977,239 5,193,394
Total Operating Expenses 1,020,246 1,107,758 1,203,403 1,293,302 1,387,649 1,478,778 1,503,034 1,568,308
Total Overhead Expenses 357,348 375,758 395,133 415,523 436,982 459,568 483,340 508,361
Total Expenses 1,377,594 1,483,516 1,598,535 1,708,825 1,824,631 1,938,346 1,986,374 2,076,669
EBITDA 2,000,911 2,184,783 2,386,487 2,573,896 2,770,516 2,958,572 2,990,866 3,116,725
EBITDA Margin % 59% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (313,994) (325,747) (344,593) (305,991) (314,683) (304,783) (322,329) (325,129)
EBIT 1,686,918 1,859,036 2,041,895 2,267,905 2,455,833 2,653,789 2,668,537 2,791,596
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (421,729) (464,759) (510,474) (566,976) (613,958) (663,447) (667,134) (697,899)
PAT 1,265,188 1,394,277 1,531,421 1,700,929 1,841,875 1,990,342 2,001,403 2,093,697
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(3 of 4)
109
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Throughput 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 3,478,209 3,665,418 3,862,723 4,070,669 4,289,829 4,520,811 4,764,250 5,020,821
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 614,874 627,171 639,715 652,509 665,559 678,870 692,448 706,297
Container Yard Storage 829,314 845,900 862,818 880,074 897,676 915,629 933,942 952,621
Ancillary Revenue 608,386 635,094 663,121 692,537 723,412 755,825 789,854 825,586
Total Revenue 5,420,167 5,658,112 5,907,810 6,169,873 6,444,947 6,733,713 7,036,885 7,355,218
Total Operating Expenses 1,636,790 1,708,644 1,784,049 1,863,187 1,946,254 2,033,456 2,125,008 2,221,139
Total Overhead Expenses 534,696 562,417 591,596 622,311 654,644 688,680 724,511 762,231
Total Expenses 2,171,486 2,271,062 2,375,645 2,485,498 2,600,898 2,722,136 2,849,519 2,983,370
EBITDA 3,248,681 3,387,050 3,532,165 3,684,375 3,844,049 4,011,576 4,187,366 4,371,848
EBITDA Margin % 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 59%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (352,882) (374,573) (390,220) (408,476) (422,071) (428,776) (454,724) (457,298)
EBIT 2,895,799 3,012,477 3,141,945 3,275,899 3,421,978 3,582,801 3,732,641 3,914,550
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (723,950) (753,119) (785,486) (818,975) (855,494) (895,700) (933,160) (978,638)
PAT 2,171,849 2,259,358 2,356,459 2,456,924 2,566,483 2,687,100 2,799,481 2,935,913
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(4 of 4)
110
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Throughput 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 5,291,231 5,576,228
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 720,423 734,831
Container Yard Storage 971,673 991,107
Ancillary Revenue 863,108 902,515
Total Revenue 7,689,507 8,040,588
Total Operating Expenses 2,322,088 2,428,108
Total Overhead Expenses 801,941 843,747
Total Expenses 3,124,029 3,271,855
EBITDA 4,565,478 4,768,733
EBITDA Margin % 59% 59%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (473,463) (453,799)
EBIT 4,092,014 4,314,934
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax (1,023,004) (1,078,734)
PAT 3,069,011 3,236,201
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(1 of 4)
111
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Throughput 1,369 1,398 1,466 1,541 1,624 1,715 1,812 1,885
Domestic volume TEU'000 163 179 196 217 240 267 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,206 1,220 1,270 1,325 1,384 1,448 1,517 1,591
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,087,899 1,270,748 1,302,278 1,304,353 1,363,249 1,513,475 1,681,170 1,846,616
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 278,761 290,379 310,619 333,009 357,852 385,506 415,349 440,766
Container Yard Storage 375,980 391,650 418,949 449,147 482,654 519,953 560,204 594,485
Ancillary Revenue 215,383 241,355 251,127 257,883 272,374 298,969 328,359 356,186
Total Revenue 1,918,863 2,150,250 2,237,314 2,297,504 2,426,607 2,663,545 2,925,380 3,173,292
Total Operating Expenses 579,461 649,335 675,627 693,803 732,790 804,341 883,410 958,275
Total Overhead Expenses 247,119 266,146 276,425 285,792 297,453 312,634 328,605 345,408
Total Expenses 826,580 915,481 952,052 979,595 1,030,243 1,116,975 1,212,015 1,303,683
EBITDA 1,092,283 1,234,769 1,285,262 1,317,908 1,396,364 1,546,571 1,713,365 1,869,609
EBITDA Margin % 57% 57% 57% 57% 58% 58% 59% 59%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (97,528) (142,237) (199,006) (233,488) (241,006) (262,565) (283,029) (304,698)
EBIT 994,755 1,092,532 1,086,256 1,084,420 1,155,357 1,284,006 1,430,336 1,564,911
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (248,689) (273,133) (271,564) (271,105) (288,839) (321,001) (357,584) (391,228)
PAT 746,066 819,399 814,692 813,315 866,518 963,004 1,072,752 1,173,683
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(2 of 4)
112
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Throughput 1,925 2,004 2,086 2,149 2,214 2,281 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,631 1,710 1,792 1,855 1,920 1,987 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,989,617 2,186,284 2,402,966 2,611,708 2,838,938 3,086,311 3,132,038 3,300,579
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 459,229 487,548 517,757 543,991 568,048 579,409 590,998 602,818
Container Yard Storage 619,388 657,583 698,328 733,710 766,158 781,481 797,110 813,053
Ancillary Revenue 379,220 411,748 447,298 480,714 515,782 549,654 558,670 582,932
Total Revenue 3,378,505 3,668,300 3,985,022 4,282,721 4,595,147 4,896,918 4,977,239 5,193,394
Total Operating Expenses 1,020,246 1,107,758 1,203,403 1,293,302 1,387,649 1,478,778 1,503,034 1,568,308
Total Overhead Expenses 363,086 381,688 401,260 421,854 443,525 466,329 490,326 515,579
Total Expenses 1,383,332 1,489,446 1,604,662 1,715,156 1,831,174 1,945,107 1,993,360 2,083,888
EBITDA 1,995,173 2,178,854 2,380,360 2,567,565 2,763,974 2,951,811 2,983,880 3,109,506
EBITDA Margin % 59% 59% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (313,994) (325,747) (344,593) (305,991) (314,683) (304,783) (322,329) (325,129)
EBIT 1,681,179 1,853,106 2,035,768 2,261,574 2,449,291 2,647,029 2,661,551 2,784,377
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (420,295) (463,277) (508,942) (565,393) (612,323) (661,757) (665,388) (696,094)
PAT 1,260,884 1,389,830 1,526,826 1,696,180 1,836,968 1,985,271 1,996,163 2,088,283
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(3 of 4)
113
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Throughput 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 3,478,209 3,665,418 3,862,723 4,070,669 4,289,829 4,520,811 4,764,250 5,020,821
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 614,874 627,171 639,715 652,509 665,559 678,870 692,448 706,297
Container Yard Storage 829,314 845,900 862,818 880,074 897,676 915,629 933,942 952,621
Ancillary Revenue 608,386 635,094 663,121 692,537 723,412 755,825 789,854 825,586
Total Revenue 5,420,167 5,658,112 5,907,810 6,169,873 6,444,947 6,733,713 7,036,885 7,355,218
Total Operating Expenses 1,636,790 1,708,644 1,784,049 1,863,187 1,946,254 2,033,456 2,125,008 2,221,139
Total Overhead Expenses 542,156 570,125 599,561 630,542 663,149 697,469 733,592 771,615
Total Expenses 2,178,945 2,278,770 2,383,610 2,493,729 2,609,403 2,730,925 2,858,600 2,992,754
EBITDA 3,241,222 3,379,342 3,524,200 3,676,144 3,835,544 4,002,788 4,178,284 4,362,464
EBITDA Margin % 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% 59% 59% 59%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (352,882) (374,573) (390,220) (408,476) (422,071) (428,776) (454,724) (457,298)
EBIT 2,888,340 3,004,769 3,133,980 3,267,668 3,413,473 3,574,012 3,723,560 3,905,166
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (722,085) (751,192) (783,495) (816,917) (853,368) (893,503) (930,890) (976,292)
PAT 2,166,255 2,253,577 2,350,485 2,450,751 2,560,105 2,680,509 2,792,670 2,928,875
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(4 of 4)
114
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Throughput 2,200 2,200
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,906 1,906
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 5,291,231 5,576,228
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 720,423 734,831
Container Yard Storage 971,673 991,107
Ancillary Revenue 863,108 902,515
Total Revenue 7,689,507 8,040,588
Total Operating Expenses 2,322,088 2,428,108
Total Overhead Expenses 811,638 853,767
Total Expenses 3,133,726 3,281,875
EBITDA 4,555,781 4,758,713
EBITDA Margin % 59% 59%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (473,463) (453,799)
EBIT 4,082,318 4,304,914
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax (1,020,579) (1,076,229)
PAT 3,061,738 3,228,686
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (1 of 12)
115
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Throughput 1,369 1,398 1,466 1,541 1,624 1,715 1,812 1,885
Domestic volume TEU'000 163 179 196 217 240 267 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,206 1,220 1,270 1,325 1,384 1,448 1,517 1,591
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,087,899 1,270,748 1,302,278 1,304,353 1,363,249 1,513,475 1,681,170 1,846,616
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 278,761 290,379 310,619 333,009 357,852 385,506 415,349 440,766
Container Yard Storage 375,980 391,650 418,949 449,147 482,654 519,953 560,204 594,485
Ancillary Revenue 215,383 241,355 251,127 257,883 272,374 298,969 328,359 356,186
Total Revenue 1,958,023 2,194,133 2,282,973 2,344,391 2,476,129 2,717,903 2,985,082 3,238,053
Operating Expenses
Payroll 164,862 184,741 192,222 197,393 208,485 228,842 251,338 272,637
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 98,469 110,343 114,811 117,900 124,525 136,684 150,121 162,842
Operations 59,983 67,216 69,938 71,820 75,855 83,262 91,447 99,197
Engineering 6,409 7,182 7,472 7,673 8,105 8,896 9,770 10,598
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 89,133 99,881 103,926 106,721 112,718 123,724 135,887 147,403
Equipment Hire 15,980 17,907 18,632 19,133 20,208 22,181 24,362 26,427
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 101,887 114,173 118,796 121,992 128,847 141,428 155,330 168,494
Electricity & Water 20,914 23,436 24,385 25,041 26,448 29,031 31,884 34,586
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 742 831 865 888 938 1,030 1,131 1,227
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 195,802 219,413 228,297 234,439 247,613 271,790 298,508 323,805
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 1,967 2,204 2,293 2,355 2,487 2,730 2,999 3,253
Total Operating Expenses 591,287 662,587 689,415 707,963 747,745 820,756 901,439 977,832
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (2 of 12)
116
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 94,465 100,606 106,441 112,402 118,471 124,869 131,612 138,719
Mgmt/G&A 38,310 40,800 43,166 45,584 48,045 50,640 53,374 56,256
Operations 38,822 41,346 43,744 46,193 48,688 51,317 54,088 57,009
Engineering 10,099 10,756 11,379 12,017 12,666 13,350 14,070 14,830
Safety 3,449 3,673 3,886 4,104 4,326 4,559 4,805 5,065
Security 2,762 2,942 3,112 3,287 3,464 3,651 3,848 4,056
Others 1,023 1,089 1,153 1,217 1,283 1,352 1,425 1,502
Facility Rent 3,169 3,375 3,571 3,770 3,974 4,189 4,415 4,653
Facilities Maintenance 24,503 26,095 27,609 29,155 30,729 32,389 34,138 35,981
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 2,949 3,141 3,323 3,509 3,699 3,898 4,109 4,331
Professional/Legal Expenses 3,064 3,263 3,453 3,646 3,843 4,050 4,269 4,500
Audit fees 509 543 574 606 639 673 710 748
Insurance 10,661 11,354 12,013 12,685 13,370 14,092 14,853 15,655
Security Charges 6,594 7,023 7,430 7,846 8,270 8,716 9,187 9,683
Cargo Claims/Accidents 738 786 831 878 925 975 1,028 1,083
Travel & Accommodation 6,476 6,897 7,297 7,706 8,122 8,560 9,023 9,510
Communications 829 883 934 986 1,039 1,095 1,155 1,217
Office Services & Supplies 5,878 6,260 6,623 6,994 7,372 7,770 8,189 8,632
Training & Development 2,183 2,325 2,460 2,597 2,738 2,885 3,041 3,205
IT Expenses 9,078 9,668 10,229 10,802 11,385 12,000 12,648 13,331
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 3,113 3,315 3,507 3,704 3,904 4,115 4,337 4,571
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 7,908 8,422 8,911 9,410 9,918 10,453 11,018 11,613
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 38,018 43,053 41,090 38,105 36,901 38,131 39,402 40,716
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 5,084 5,757 5,494 5,095 4,934 - - -
Misc Expenses (including pension) 4,706 5,011 5,302 5,599 5,901 6,220 6,556 6,910
Redundancy Cost 12,348 13,151 13,914 14,693 15,486 16,323 17,204 18,133
Total Overhead Expenses 242,273 260,927 271,005 280,188 291,621 301,405 316,893 333,191
Total Expenses 833,560 923,514 960,420 988,151 1,039,366 1,122,161 1,218,332 1,311,022
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (3 of 12)
117
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA 1,124,463 1,270,618 1,322,553 1,356,241 1,436,764 1,595,742 1,766,750 1,927,031
EBITDA Margin % 57% 58% 58% 58% 58% 59% 59% 60%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (97,528) (142,237) (199,006) (233,488) (241,006) (262,565) (283,029) (304,698)
EBIT 1,026,935 1,128,382 1,123,547 1,122,753 1,195,757 1,333,177 1,483,721 1,622,332
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (256,734) (282,095) (280,887) (280,688) (298,939) (333,294) (370,930) (405,583)
PAT 770,201 846,286 842,660 842,064 896,818 999,883 1,112,791 1,216,749
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (4 of 12)
118
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Throughput 1,925 2,004 2,086 2,149 2,214 2,281 2,300 2,400
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,631 1,710 1,792 1,855 1,920 1,987 2,006 2,106
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,989,617 2,186,284 2,402,966 2,611,708 2,838,938 3,086,311 3,280,480 3,613,496
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 459,229 487,548 517,757 543,991 568,048 579,409 590,998 602,818
Container Yard Storage 619,388 657,583 698,328 733,710 766,158 781,481 797,110 813,053
Ancillary Revenue 379,220 411,748 447,298 480,714 515,782 549,654 577,017 621,607
Total Revenue 3,447,454 3,743,163 4,066,349 4,370,123 4,688,926 4,996,855 5,245,605 5,650,973
Operating Expenses
Payroll 290,269 315,167 342,378 367,955 394,798 420,725 441,669 475,800
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 173,373 188,245 204,498 219,775 235,807 251,293 263,803 284,189
Operations 105,612 114,670 124,571 133,877 143,644 153,077 160,697 173,116
Engineering 11,284 12,252 13,309 14,304 15,347 16,355 17,169 18,496
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 156,935 170,396 185,108 198,937 213,449 227,467 238,791 257,244
Equipment Hire 28,135 30,549 33,186 35,666 38,267 40,780 42,811 46,119
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 179,390 194,778 211,595 227,402 243,991 260,014 272,958 294,052
Electricity & Water 36,823 39,982 43,434 46,678 50,083 53,373 56,030 60,359
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 1,306 1,418 1,541 1,656 1,776 1,893 1,987 2,141
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 344,745 374,316 406,635 437,012 468,893 499,686 524,560 565,097
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 3,463 3,760 4,085 4,390 4,710 5,019 5,269 5,676
Total Operating Expenses 1,041,067 1,130,366 1,227,962 1,319,696 1,415,968 1,508,957 1,584,075 1,706,489
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (5 of 12)
119
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 146,209 154,105 162,426 171,197 180,442 190,186 200,456 211,281
Mgmt/G&A 59,294 62,496 65,871 69,428 73,177 77,128 81,293 85,683
Operations 60,087 63,332 66,752 70,357 74,156 78,160 82,381 86,830
Engineering 15,631 16,475 17,365 18,303 19,291 20,333 21,431 22,588
Safety 5,338 5,627 5,931 6,251 6,588 6,944 7,319 7,714
Security 4,275 4,506 4,749 5,006 5,276 5,561 5,861 6,178
Others 1,583 1,669 1,759 1,854 1,954 2,060 2,171 2,288
Facility Rent 4,905 5,169 5,449 5,743 6,053 6,380 6,724 7,087
Facilities Maintenance 37,924 39,972 42,130 44,405 46,803 49,331 51,994 54,802
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 4,565 4,811 5,071 5,345 5,634 5,938 6,258 6,596
Professional/Legal Expenses 4,743 4,999 5,269 5,553 5,853 6,169 6,502 6,853
Audit fees 789 831 876 923 973 1,026 1,081 1,140
Insurance 16,501 17,392 18,331 19,321 20,364 21,464 22,623 23,844
Security Charges 10,206 10,757 11,338 11,950 12,596 13,276 13,993 14,748
Cargo Claims/Accidents 1,142 1,204 1,269 1,337 1,409 1,485 1,566 1,650
Travel & Accommodation 10,024 10,565 11,135 11,737 12,370 13,038 13,742 14,485
Communications 1,283 1,352 1,425 1,502 1,583 1,668 1,759 1,853
Office Services & Supplies 9,098 9,589 10,107 10,653 11,228 11,834 12,473 13,147
Training & Development 3,379 3,561 3,753 3,956 4,170 4,395 4,632 4,882
IT Expenses 14,050 14,809 15,609 16,452 17,340 18,276 19,263 20,304
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 4,818 5,078 5,352 5,641 5,946 6,267 6,605 6,962
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 12,240 12,901 13,598 14,332 15,106 15,922 16,781 17,687
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 42,073 43,475 44,924 46,422 47,969 49,568 51,221 52,928
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion - - - - - - - -
Misc Expenses (including pension) 7,283 7,676 8,091 8,528 8,988 9,474 9,985 10,524
Redundancy Cost 19,112 20,144 21,232 22,379 23,587 24,861 26,203 27,618
Total Overhead Expenses 350,341 368,390 387,385 407,375 428,414 450,557 473,863 498,393
Total Expenses 1,391,408 1,498,756 1,615,347 1,727,071 1,844,382 1,959,514 2,057,938 2,204,881
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (6 of 12)
120
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EBITDA 2,056,046 2,244,407 2,451,003 2,643,052 2,844,543 3,037,341 3,187,667 3,446,092
EBITDA Margin % 60% 60% 60% 60% 61% 61% 61% 61%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (313,994) (325,747) (344,593) (305,991) (314,683) (304,783) (322,329) (325,129)
EBIT 1,742,052 1,918,660 2,106,410 2,337,061 2,529,861 2,732,558 2,865,338 3,120,962
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (435,513) (479,665) (526,603) (584,265) (632,465) (683,140) (716,335) (780,241)
PAT 1,306,539 1,438,995 1,579,808 1,752,796 1,897,395 2,049,419 2,149,004 2,340,722
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (7 of 12)
121
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Throughput 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 3,972,930 4,186,854 4,412,316 4,649,940 4,900,382 5,164,333 5,442,523 5,735,720
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 614,874 627,171 639,715 652,509 665,559 678,870 692,448 706,297
Container Yard Storage 829,314 845,900 862,818 880,074 897,676 915,629 933,942 952,621
Ancillary Revenue 669,531 699,541 731,049 764,132 798,874 835,361 873,686 913,944
Total Revenue 6,086,649 6,359,467 6,645,898 6,946,656 7,262,491 7,594,194 7,942,598 8,308,582
Operating Expenses
Payroll 512,483 535,454 559,571 584,894 611,487 639,416 668,751 699,566
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 306,099 319,819 334,224 349,349 365,232 381,914 399,435 417,841
Operations 186,462 194,820 203,595 212,808 222,484 232,645 243,319 254,530
Engineering 19,922 20,815 21,752 22,737 23,771 24,856 25,997 27,195
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 277,077 289,496 302,535 316,226 330,603 345,703 361,563 378,223
Equipment Hire 49,675 51,901 54,239 56,693 59,271 61,978 64,821 67,808
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 316,722 330,918 345,823 361,473 377,908 395,168 413,298 432,342
Electricity & Water 65,013 67,927 70,986 74,199 77,572 81,115 84,837 88,746
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 2,306 2,409 2,518 2,632 2,751 2,877 3,009 3,148
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 608,665 635,947 664,590 694,666 726,249 759,419 794,260 830,858
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 6,114 6,388 6,676 6,978 7,295 7,628 7,978 8,346
Total Operating Expenses 1,838,055 1,920,441 2,006,937 2,097,761 2,193,137 2,293,305 2,398,517 2,509,037
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (8 of 12)
122
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 222,690 234,715 247,390 260,749 274,829 289,670 305,312 321,799
Mgmt/G&A 90,310 95,187 100,327 105,745 111,455 117,473 123,817 130,503
Operations 91,518 96,460 101,669 107,159 112,946 119,045 125,474 132,249
Engineering 23,808 25,093 26,448 27,876 29,382 30,968 32,641 34,403
Safety 8,131 8,570 9,033 9,520 10,035 10,576 11,148 11,750
Security 6,511 6,863 7,233 7,624 8,036 8,470 8,927 9,409
Others 2,412 2,542 2,679 2,824 2,976 3,137 3,306 3,485
Facility Rent 7,470 7,873 8,299 8,747 9,219 9,717 10,242 10,795
Facilities Maintenance 57,761 60,881 64,168 67,633 71,285 75,135 79,192 83,468
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 6,953 7,328 7,724 8,141 8,580 9,044 9,532 10,047
Professional/Legal Expenses 7,224 7,614 8,025 8,458 8,915 9,396 9,904 10,438
Audit fees 1,201 1,266 1,334 1,406 1,482 1,562 1,647 1,736
Insurance 25,132 26,489 27,920 29,427 31,016 32,691 34,456 36,317
Security Charges 15,545 16,384 17,269 18,201 19,184 20,220 21,312 22,463
Cargo Claims/Accidents 1,739 1,833 1,932 2,037 2,146 2,262 2,385 2,513
Travel & Accommodation 15,267 16,091 16,960 17,876 18,841 19,859 20,931 22,061
Communications 1,954 2,059 2,170 2,287 2,411 2,541 2,678 2,823
Office Services & Supplies 13,857 14,605 15,394 16,225 17,101 18,024 18,998 20,024
Training & Development 5,146 5,424 5,717 6,025 6,351 6,694 7,055 7,436
IT Expenses 21,400 22,556 23,774 25,057 26,410 27,837 29,340 30,924
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 7,338 7,734 8,152 8,592 9,056 9,545 10,060 10,604
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 18,643 19,649 20,710 21,829 23,007 24,250 25,559 26,940
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 54,692 56,515 58,399 60,346 62,357 64,436 66,584 68,803
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion - - - - - - - -
Misc Expenses (including pension) 11,093 11,692 12,323 12,989 13,690 14,429 15,208 16,030
Redundancy Cost 29,110 30,682 32,338 34,085 35,925 37,865 39,910 42,065
Total Overhead Expenses 524,212 551,389 579,996 610,109 641,808 675,177 710,305 747,285
Total Expenses 2,362,267 2,471,830 2,586,934 2,707,870 2,834,945 2,968,482 3,108,822 3,256,322
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (9 of 12)
123
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
EBITDA 3,724,382 3,887,637 4,058,964 4,238,786 4,427,546 4,625,712 4,833,777 5,052,259
EBITDA Margin % 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (352,882) (374,573) (390,220) (408,476) (422,071) (428,776) (454,724) (457,298)
EBIT 3,371,500 3,513,064 3,668,744 3,830,309 4,005,474 4,196,936 4,379,052 4,594,962
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (842,875) (878,266) (917,186) (957,577) (1,001,369) (1,049,234) (1,094,763) (1,148,740)
PAT 2,528,625 2,634,798 2,751,558 2,872,732 3,004,106 3,147,702 3,284,289 3,446,221
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (10 of 12)
124
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Throughput 2,500 2,500
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294
International volume TEU'000 2,206 2,206
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 6,044,735 6,370,421
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 720,423 734,831
Container Yard Storage 971,673 991,107
Ancillary Revenue 956,238 1,000,674
Total Revenue 8,693,068 9,097,033
Operating Expenses
Payroll 731,939 765,952
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 437,177 457,492
Operations 266,309 278,684
Engineering 28,453 29,775
Others - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 395,726 414,115
Equipment Hire 70,946 74,243
Facilities Rent - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 452,349 473,369
Electricity & Water 92,853 97,167
Transportation - -
Security Charges 3,293 3,446
Insurance - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - -
Business/Turnover Tax - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 869,307 909,703
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 8,732 9,138
Total Operating Expenses 2,625,145 2,747,134
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (11 of 12)
125
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 339,176 357,491
Mgmt/G&A 137,550 144,978
Operations 139,391 146,918
Engineering 36,261 38,219
Safety 12,384 13,053
Security 9,917 10,453
Others 3,673 3,871
Facility Rent 11,377 11,992
Facilities Maintenance 87,976 92,726
Electricity & Water - -
Company Car & Bus 10,589 11,161
Professional/Legal Expenses 11,002 11,596
Audit fees 1,829 1,928
Insurance 38,278 40,345
Security Charges 23,676 24,954
Cargo Claims/Accidents 2,649 2,792
Travel & Accommodation 23,253 24,508
Communications 2,975 3,136
Office Services & Supplies 21,105 22,245
Training & Development 7,838 8,261
IT Expenses 32,594 34,354
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 11,176 11,780
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 28,394 29,928
Shared Services Allocation - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 71,097 73,467
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion - -
Misc Expenses (including pension) 16,895 17,808
Redundancy Cost 44,337 46,731
Total Overhead Expenses 786,217 827,203
Total Expenses 3,411,361 3,574,338
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (12 of 12)
126
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
EBITDA 5,281,707 5,522,695
EBITDA Margin % 61% 61%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (473,463) (453,799)
EBIT 4,808,244 5,068,896
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax (1,202,061) (1,267,224)
PAT 3,606,183 3,801,672
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (1 of 12)
127
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Throughput 1,369 1,398 1,466 1,541 1,624 1,715 1,812 1,885
Domestic volume TEU'000 163 179 196 217 240 267 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,206 1,220 1,270 1,325 1,384 1,448 1,517 1,591
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,087,899 1,270,748 1,302,278 1,304,353 1,363,249 1,513,475 1,681,170 1,846,616
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 278,761 290,379 310,619 333,009 357,852 385,506 415,349 440,766
Container Yard Storage 375,980 391,650 418,949 449,147 482,654 519,953 560,204 594,485
Ancillary Revenue 215,383 241,355 251,127 257,883 272,374 298,969 328,359 356,186
Total Revenue 1,958,023 2,194,133 2,282,973 2,344,391 2,476,129 2,717,903 2,985,082 3,238,053
Operating Expenses
Payroll 164,862 184,741 192,222 197,393 208,485 228,842 251,338 272,637
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 98,469 110,343 114,811 117,900 124,525 136,684 150,121 162,842
Operations 59,983 67,216 69,938 71,820 75,855 83,262 91,447 99,197
Engineering 6,409 7,182 7,472 7,673 8,105 8,896 9,770 10,598
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 89,133 99,881 103,926 106,721 112,718 123,724 135,887 147,403
Equipment Hire 15,980 17,907 18,632 19,133 20,208 22,181 24,362 26,427
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 101,887 114,173 118,796 121,992 128,847 141,428 155,330 168,494
Electricity & Water 20,914 23,436 24,385 25,041 26,448 29,031 31,884 34,586
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 742 831 865 888 938 1,030 1,131 1,227
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 195,802 219,413 228,297 234,439 247,613 271,790 298,508 323,805
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 1,967 2,204 2,293 2,355 2,487 2,730 2,999 3,253
Total Operating Expenses 591,287 662,587 689,415 707,963 747,745 820,756 901,439 977,832
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (2 of 12)
128
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 94,465 100,606 106,441 112,402 118,471 124,869 131,612 138,719
Mgmt/G&A 38,310 40,800 43,166 45,584 48,045 50,640 53,374 56,256
Operations 38,822 41,346 43,744 46,193 48,688 51,317 54,088 57,009
Engineering 10,099 10,756 11,379 12,017 12,666 13,350 14,070 14,830
Safety 3,449 3,673 3,886 4,104 4,326 4,559 4,805 5,065
Security 2,762 2,942 3,112 3,287 3,464 3,651 3,848 4,056
Others 1,023 1,089 1,153 1,217 1,283 1,352 1,425 1,502
Facility Rent 3,169 3,375 3,571 3,770 3,974 4,189 4,415 4,653
Facilities Maintenance 24,503 26,095 27,609 29,155 30,729 32,389 34,138 35,981
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 2,949 3,141 3,323 3,509 3,699 3,898 4,109 4,331
Professional/Legal Expenses 3,064 3,263 3,453 3,646 3,843 4,050 4,269 4,500
Audit fees 509 543 574 606 639 673 710 748
Insurance 10,661 11,354 12,013 12,685 13,370 14,092 14,853 15,655
Security Charges 6,594 7,023 7,430 7,846 8,270 8,716 9,187 9,683
Cargo Claims/Accidents 738 786 831 878 925 975 1,028 1,083
Travel & Accommodation 6,476 6,897 7,297 7,706 8,122 8,560 9,023 9,510
Communications 829 883 934 986 1,039 1,095 1,155 1,217
Office Services & Supplies 5,878 6,260 6,623 6,994 7,372 7,770 8,189 8,632
Training & Development 2,183 2,325 2,460 2,597 2,738 2,885 3,041 3,205
IT Expenses 9,078 9,668 10,229 10,802 11,385 12,000 12,648 13,331
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 3,113 3,315 3,507 3,704 3,904 4,115 4,337 4,571
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 7,908 8,422 8,911 9,410 9,918 10,453 11,018 11,613
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 38,018 43,053 41,090 38,105 36,901 38,131 39,402 40,716
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 5,084 5,757 5,494 5,095 4,934 5,099 5,269 5,444
Misc Expenses (including pension) 4,706 5,011 5,302 5,599 5,901 6,220 6,556 6,910
Redundancy Cost 12,348 13,151 13,914 14,693 15,486 16,323 17,204 18,133
Total Overhead Expenses 242,273 260,927 271,005 280,188 291,621 306,504 322,161 338,635
Total Expenses 833,560 923,514 960,420 988,151 1,039,366 1,127,260 1,223,600 1,316,467
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (3 of 12)
129
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
EBITDA 1,124,463 1,270,618 1,322,553 1,356,241 1,436,764 1,590,644 1,761,481 1,921,587
EBITDA Margin % 57% 58% 58% 58% 58% 59% 59% 59%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (97,528) (142,237) (199,006) (233,488) (241,006) (262,565) (283,029) (304,698)
EBIT 1,026,935 1,128,382 1,123,547 1,122,753 1,195,757 1,328,079 1,478,452 1,616,888
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (256,734) (282,095) (280,887) (280,688) (298,939) (332,020) (369,613) (404,222)
PAT 770,201 846,286 842,660 842,064 896,818 996,059 1,108,839 1,212,666
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (4 of 12)
130
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Throughput 1,925 2,004 2,086 2,149 2,214 2,281 2,300 2,400
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 1,631 1,710 1,792 1,855 1,920 1,987 2,006 2,106
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 1,989,617 2,186,284 2,402,966 2,611,708 2,838,938 3,086,311 3,280,480 3,613,496
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 459,229 487,548 517,757 543,991 568,048 579,409 590,998 602,818
Container Yard Storage 619,388 657,583 698,328 733,710 766,158 781,481 797,110 813,053
Ancillary Revenue 379,220 411,748 447,298 480,714 515,782 549,654 577,017 621,607
Total Revenue 3,447,454 3,743,163 4,066,349 4,370,123 4,688,926 4,996,855 5,245,605 5,650,973
Operating Expenses
Payroll 290,269 315,167 342,378 367,955 394,798 420,725 441,669 475,800
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 173,373 188,245 204,498 219,775 235,807 251,293 263,803 284,189
Operations 105,612 114,670 124,571 133,877 143,644 153,077 160,697 173,116
Engineering 11,284 12,252 13,309 14,304 15,347 16,355 17,169 18,496
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 156,935 170,396 185,108 198,937 213,449 227,467 238,791 257,244
Equipment Hire 28,135 30,549 33,186 35,666 38,267 40,780 42,811 46,119
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 179,390 194,778 211,595 227,402 243,991 260,014 272,958 294,052
Electricity & Water 36,823 39,982 43,434 46,678 50,083 53,373 56,030 60,359
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 1,306 1,418 1,541 1,656 1,776 1,893 1,987 2,141
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 344,745 374,316 406,635 437,012 468,893 499,686 524,560 565,097
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 3,463 3,760 4,085 4,390 4,710 5,019 5,269 5,676
Total Operating Expenses 1,041,067 1,130,366 1,227,962 1,319,696 1,415,968 1,508,957 1,584,075 1,706,489
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (5 of 12)
131
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 146,209 154,105 162,426 171,197 180,442 190,186 200,456 211,281
Mgmt/G&A 59,294 62,496 65,871 69,428 73,177 77,128 81,293 85,683
Operations 60,087 63,332 66,752 70,357 74,156 78,160 82,381 86,830
Engineering 15,631 16,475 17,365 18,303 19,291 20,333 21,431 22,588
Safety 5,338 5,627 5,931 6,251 6,588 6,944 7,319 7,714
Security 4,275 4,506 4,749 5,006 5,276 5,561 5,861 6,178
Others 1,583 1,669 1,759 1,854 1,954 2,060 2,171 2,288
Facility Rent 4,905 5,169 5,449 5,743 6,053 6,380 6,724 7,087
Facilities Maintenance 37,924 39,972 42,130 44,405 46,803 49,331 51,994 54,802
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 4,565 4,811 5,071 5,345 5,634 5,938 6,258 6,596
Professional/Legal Expenses 4,743 4,999 5,269 5,553 5,853 6,169 6,502 6,853
Audit fees 789 831 876 923 973 1,026 1,081 1,140
Insurance 16,501 17,392 18,331 19,321 20,364 21,464 22,623 23,844
Security Charges 10,206 10,757 11,338 11,950 12,596 13,276 13,993 14,748
Cargo Claims/Accidents 1,142 1,204 1,269 1,337 1,409 1,485 1,566 1,650
Travel & Accommodation 10,024 10,565 11,135 11,737 12,370 13,038 13,742 14,485
Communications 1,283 1,352 1,425 1,502 1,583 1,668 1,759 1,853
Office Services & Supplies 9,098 9,589 10,107 10,653 11,228 11,834 12,473 13,147
Training & Development 3,379 3,561 3,753 3,956 4,170 4,395 4,632 4,882
IT Expenses 14,050 14,809 15,609 16,452 17,340 18,276 19,263 20,304
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 4,818 5,078 5,352 5,641 5,946 6,267 6,605 6,962
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 12,240 12,901 13,598 14,332 15,106 15,922 16,781 17,687
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 42,073 43,475 44,924 46,422 47,969 49,568 51,221 52,928
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 5,626 5,813 6,007 6,207 6,414 6,628 6,849 7,077
Misc Expenses (including pension) 7,283 7,676 8,091 8,528 8,988 9,474 9,985 10,524
Redundancy Cost 19,112 20,144 21,232 22,379 23,587 24,861 26,203 27,618
Total Overhead Expenses 355,967 374,204 393,392 413,583 434,828 457,185 480,712 505,470
Total Expenses 1,397,034 1,504,569 1,621,354 1,733,278 1,850,797 1,966,142 2,064,787 2,211,959
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (6 of 12)
132
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EBITDA 2,050,420 2,238,594 2,444,996 2,636,845 2,838,129 3,030,713 3,180,818 3,439,014
EBITDA Margin % 59% 60% 60% 60% 61% 61% 61% 61%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (313,994) (325,747) (344,593) (305,991) (314,683) (304,783) (322,329) (325,129)
EBIT 1,736,426 1,912,847 2,100,403 2,330,854 2,523,446 2,725,930 2,858,489 3,113,885
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (434,107) (478,212) (525,101) (582,713) (630,862) (681,483) (714,622) (778,471)
PAT 1,302,320 1,434,635 1,575,302 1,748,140 1,892,585 2,044,448 2,143,867 2,335,414
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (7 of 12)
133
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Throughput 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294 294 294 294 294 294 294
International volume TEU'000 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206 2,206
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - - - - - - - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 3,972,930 4,186,854 4,412,316 4,649,940 4,900,382 5,164,333 5,442,523 5,735,720
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 614,874 627,171 639,715 652,509 665,559 678,870 692,448 706,297
Container Yard Storage 829,314 845,900 862,818 880,074 897,676 915,629 933,942 952,621
Ancillary Revenue 669,531 699,541 731,049 764,132 798,874 835,361 873,686 913,944
Total Revenue 6,086,649 6,359,467 6,645,898 6,946,656 7,262,491 7,594,194 7,942,598 8,308,582
Operating Expenses
Payroll 512,483 535,454 559,571 584,894 611,487 639,416 668,751 699,566
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 306,099 319,819 334,224 349,349 365,232 381,914 399,435 417,841
Operations 186,462 194,820 203,595 212,808 222,484 232,645 243,319 254,530
Engineering 19,922 20,815 21,752 22,737 23,771 24,856 25,997 27,195
Others - - - - - - - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 277,077 289,496 302,535 316,226 330,603 345,703 361,563 378,223
Equipment Hire 49,675 51,901 54,239 56,693 59,271 61,978 64,821 67,808
Facilities Rent - - - - - - - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 316,722 330,918 345,823 361,473 377,908 395,168 413,298 432,342
Electricity & Water 65,013 67,927 70,986 74,199 77,572 81,115 84,837 88,746
Transportation - - - - - - - -
Security Charges 2,306 2,409 2,518 2,632 2,751 2,877 3,009 3,148
Insurance - - - - - - - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - - - - - - - -
Business/Turnover Tax - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 608,665 635,947 664,590 694,666 726,249 759,419 794,260 830,858
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 6,114 6,388 6,676 6,978 7,295 7,628 7,978 8,346
Total Operating Expenses 1,838,055 1,920,441 2,006,937 2,097,761 2,193,137 2,293,305 2,398,517 2,509,037
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (8 of 12)
134
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 222,690 234,715 247,390 260,749 274,829 289,670 305,312 321,799
Mgmt/G&A 90,310 95,187 100,327 105,745 111,455 117,473 123,817 130,503
Operations 91,518 96,460 101,669 107,159 112,946 119,045 125,474 132,249
Engineering 23,808 25,093 26,448 27,876 29,382 30,968 32,641 34,403
Safety 8,131 8,570 9,033 9,520 10,035 10,576 11,148 11,750
Security 6,511 6,863 7,233 7,624 8,036 8,470 8,927 9,409
Others 2,412 2,542 2,679 2,824 2,976 3,137 3,306 3,485
Facility Rent 7,470 7,873 8,299 8,747 9,219 9,717 10,242 10,795
Facilities Maintenance 57,761 60,881 64,168 67,633 71,285 75,135 79,192 83,468
Electricity & Water - - - - - - - -
Company Car & Bus 6,953 7,328 7,724 8,141 8,580 9,044 9,532 10,047
Professional/Legal Expenses 7,224 7,614 8,025 8,458 8,915 9,396 9,904 10,438
Audit fees 1,201 1,266 1,334 1,406 1,482 1,562 1,647 1,736
Insurance 25,132 26,489 27,920 29,427 31,016 32,691 34,456 36,317
Security Charges 15,545 16,384 17,269 18,201 19,184 20,220 21,312 22,463
Cargo Claims/Accidents 1,739 1,833 1,932 2,037 2,146 2,262 2,385 2,513
Travel & Accommodation 15,267 16,091 16,960 17,876 18,841 19,859 20,931 22,061
Communications 1,954 2,059 2,170 2,287 2,411 2,541 2,678 2,823
Office Services & Supplies 13,857 14,605 15,394 16,225 17,101 18,024 18,998 20,024
Training & Development 5,146 5,424 5,717 6,025 6,351 6,694 7,055 7,436
IT Expenses 21,400 22,556 23,774 25,057 26,410 27,837 29,340 30,924
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 7,338 7,734 8,152 8,592 9,056 9,545 10,060 10,604
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 18,643 19,649 20,710 21,829 23,007 24,250 25,559 26,940
Shared Services Allocation - - - - - - - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 54,692 56,515 58,399 60,346 62,357 64,436 66,584 68,803
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 7,313 7,557 7,809 8,069 8,338 8,616 8,903 9,200
Misc Expenses (including pension) 11,093 11,692 12,323 12,989 13,690 14,429 15,208 16,030
Redundancy Cost 29,110 30,682 32,338 34,085 35,925 37,865 39,910 42,065
Total Overhead Expenses 531,525 558,946 587,805 618,178 650,146 683,793 719,208 756,485
Total Expenses 2,369,580 2,479,387 2,594,743 2,715,939 2,843,283 2,977,098 3,117,725 3,265,522
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (9 of 12)
135
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
EBITDA 3,717,069 3,880,080 4,051,155 4,230,717 4,419,208 4,617,096 4,824,873 5,043,059
EBITDA Margin % 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61% 61%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (352,882) (374,573) (390,220) (408,476) (422,071) (428,776) (454,724) (457,298)
EBIT 3,364,187 3,505,507 3,660,935 3,822,240 3,997,136 4,188,320 4,370,149 4,585,762
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax (841,047) (876,377) (915,234) (955,560) (999,284) (1,047,080) (1,092,537) (1,146,440)
PAT 2,523,140 2,629,130 2,745,701 2,866,680 2,997,852 3,141,240 3,277,612 3,439,321
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (10 of 12)
136
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Throughput 2,500 2,500
Domestic volume TEU'000 294 294
International volume TEU'000 2,206 2,206
Transhipment volume TEU'000 - -
Containerized Stevedoring Revenue 6,044,735 6,370,421
Lift-on Lift-off (LOLO) 720,423 734,831
Container Yard Storage 971,673 991,107
Ancillary Revenue 956,238 1,000,674
Total Revenue 8,693,068 9,097,033
Operating Expenses
Payroll 731,939 765,952
Sub-contracted/Outsourced Labours 437,177 457,492
Operations 266,309 278,684
Engineering 28,453 29,775
Others - -
Equipment Repairs & Maintenance 395,726 414,115
Equipment Hire 70,946 74,243
Facilities Rent - -
Fuel (Gas & Oil) 452,349 473,369
Electricity & Water 92,853 97,167
Transportation - -
Security Charges 3,293 3,446
Insurance - -
Terminal Overflow Expenses - -
Business/Turnover Tax - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - variable portion 869,307 909,703
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - variable portion
Other Operation Expenses (e.g. Cleaning, waste disposal, consumbles etc.) 8,732 9,138
Total Operating Expenses 2,625,145 2,747,134
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (11 of 12)
137
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
Overhead Expenses
Payroll 339,176 357,491
Mgmt/G&A 137,550 144,978
Operations 139,391 146,918
Engineering 36,261 38,219
Safety 12,384 13,053
Security 9,917 10,453
Others 3,673 3,871
Facility Rent 11,377 11,992
Facilities Maintenance 87,976 92,726
Electricity & Water - -
Company Car & Bus 10,589 11,161
Professional/Legal Expenses 11,002 11,596
Audit fees 1,829 1,928
Insurance 38,278 40,345
Security Charges 23,676 24,954
Cargo Claims/Accidents 2,649 2,792
Travel & Accommodation 23,253 24,508
Communications 2,975 3,136
Office Services & Supplies 21,105 22,245
Training & Development 7,838 8,261
IT Expenses 32,594 34,354
Marketing/Advertising Expenses 11,176 11,780
Corporate Responsibility (Incl Donations & Charity) 28,394 29,928
Shared Services Allocation - -
Terminal Rent & Concession - fixed portion 71,097 73,467
Mgmt Fee paid to DPW - fixed portion 9,507 9,824
Misc Expenses (including pension) 16,895 17,808
Redundancy Cost 44,337 46,731
Total Overhead Expenses 795,723 837,027
Total Expenses 3,420,868 3,584,161
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Profit and Loss Projection of TPS analysisScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (12 of 12)
138
Project Portiga
3.5 Profit and loss projection of TPS
Profit and loss IDR in million 2039 2040
EBITDA 5,272,200 5,512,871
EBITDA Margin % 61% 61%
Total Depreciation & Amortization (473,463) (453,799)
EBIT 4,798,737 5,059,073
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses (Bank Charges, Interest Expenses, Other Borrowing Cost) - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax (1,199,684) (1,264,768)
PAT 3,599,053 3,794,305
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance sheet projection of TPS
139
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (1 of 4)
140
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current Asset
Cash 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 315,618 420,888 548,783 809,610
Accounts Receivable 77,453 93,175 103,203 112,402 122,110 134,034 147,210 159,685
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 640,130 655,852 665,880 675,079 470,263 587,456 728,528 1,001,830
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 1,743,956 2,347,457 3,063,254 3,621,174 3,953,442 4,314,647 4,696,702 4,989,496
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (683,564) (825,801) (1,024,807) (1,258,295) (1,499,302) (1,761,867) (2,044,895) (2,349,594)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 1,060,392 1,521,656 2,038,447 2,362,879 2,454,141 2,552,781 2,651,806 2,639,902
Total Asset 1,700,522 2,177,508 2,704,327 3,037,958 2,924,404 3,140,237 3,380,334 3,641,732
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 17,357 20,107 24,476 30,665 40,988 56,844 74,383 92,431
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 287,806 290,556 294,926 301,115 311,437 327,294 344,833 362,881
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 1,219,664 1,693,901 2,216,350 2,543,792 2,419,915 2,619,892 2,842,450 3,085,800
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 1,324,326 1,798,562 2,321,011 2,648,453 2,524,576 2,724,553 2,947,111 3,190,461
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,700,522 2,177,508 2,704,327 3,037,958 2,924,404 3,140,237 3,380,334 3,641,732
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (2 of 4)
141
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Asset
Cash 1,287,948 1,652,371 1,803,445 1,834,160 2,123,692 2,716,680 3,079,610 3,663,197
Accounts Receivable 170,011 184,594 200,532 215,513 231,235 246,420 250,462 261,339
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 1,490,495 1,869,500 2,036,513 2,082,208 2,387,462 2,995,635 3,362,607 3,957,071
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 5,094,892 5,345,165 5,848,700 6,469,094 6,868,016 6,984,306 7,355,808 7,525,417
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (2,663,587) (2,989,335) (3,333,927) (3,639,918) (3,954,601) (4,259,384) (4,581,713) (4,906,842)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,431,304 2,355,830 2,514,772 2,829,176 2,913,415 2,724,922 2,774,095 2,618,575
Total Asset 3,921,799 4,225,330 4,551,285 4,911,384 5,300,877 5,720,557 6,136,702 6,575,646
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 111,191 126,923 136,916 146,456 156,470 166,266 170,074 177,686
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 381,640 397,372 407,366 416,905 426,919 436,716 440,523 448,135
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 3,347,108 3,634,906 3,950,868 4,301,427 4,680,906 5,090,790 5,503,127 5,934,459
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 3,451,769 3,739,568 4,055,529 4,406,089 4,785,568 5,195,451 5,607,789 6,039,121
Total Liabilities and Equity 3,921,799 4,225,330 4,551,285 4,911,384 5,300,877 5,720,557 6,136,702 6,575,646
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (3 of 4)
142
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Current Asset
Cash 4,086,135 4,449,323 4,917,276 5,346,758 5,921,674 6,612,530 6,864,807 7,729,442
Accounts Receivable 272,751 284,725 297,290 310,477 324,319 338,851 354,107 370,126
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 4,391,421 4,766,582 5,247,101 5,689,770 6,278,528 6,983,916 7,251,448 8,132,103
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 7,899,463 8,372,878 8,777,041 9,258,492 9,630,507 9,917,925 10,692,889 10,885,922
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (5,259,724) (5,634,297) (6,024,517) (6,432,993) (6,855,065) (7,283,840) (7,738,565) (8,195,863)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,639,739 2,738,581 2,752,523 2,825,499 2,775,442 2,634,085 2,954,324 2,690,059
Total Asset 7,031,160 7,505,163 7,999,624 8,515,268 9,053,971 9,618,001 10,205,773 10,822,162
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 185,676 194,063 202,868 212,114 221,822 232,018 242,727 253,975
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 456,125 464,512 473,318 482,563 492,272 502,468 513,177 524,425
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 6,381,983 6,847,599 7,333,255 7,839,654 8,368,647 8,922,481 9,499,545 10,104,686
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 6,486,645 6,952,261 7,437,916 7,944,315 8,473,309 9,027,143 9,604,206 10,209,347
Total Liabilities and Equity 7,031,160 7,505,163 7,999,624 8,515,268 9,053,971 9,618,001 10,205,773 10,822,162
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (4 of 4)
143
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2039 2040
Current Asset
Cash 8,261,312 9,289,468
Accounts Receivable 386,947 404,614
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - -
Total Current Asset 8,680,794 9,726,617
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 11,455,102 11,542,394
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (8,669,326) (9,123,125)
Intangible Asset - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,785,776 2,419,269
Total Asset 11,466,570 12,145,887
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 265,791 278,205
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 536,241 548,655
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 10,737,278 11,404,180
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 10,841,939 11,508,842
Total Liabilities and Equity 11,466,570 12,145,887
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (1 of 4)
144
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current Asset
Cash 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 618,858 723,740 850,938 1,111,038
Accounts Receivable 77,453 93,175 103,203 112,402 122,110 134,034 147,210 159,685
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 640,130 655,852 665,880 675,079 773,503 890,309 1,030,682 1,303,258
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 1,743,956 2,347,457 3,063,254 3,621,174 3,953,442 4,314,647 4,696,702 4,989,496
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (683,564) (825,801) (1,024,807) (1,258,295) (1,499,302) (1,761,867) (2,044,895) (2,349,594)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 1,060,392 1,521,656 2,038,447 2,362,879 2,454,141 2,552,781 2,651,806 2,639,902
Total Asset 1,700,522 2,177,508 2,704,327 3,037,958 3,227,644 3,443,090 3,682,488 3,943,160
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 17,357 20,107 24,476 30,665 40,988 57,221 74,852 92,991
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 287,806 290,556 294,926 301,115 311,437 327,671 345,302 363,440
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 1,219,664 1,693,901 2,216,350 2,543,792 2,723,156 2,922,367 3,144,135 3,386,668
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 1,324,326 1,798,562 2,321,011 2,648,453 2,827,817 3,027,029 3,248,797 3,491,330
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,700,522 2,177,508 2,704,327 3,037,958 3,227,644 3,443,090 3,682,488 3,943,160
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (2 of 4)
145
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Asset
Cash 1,588,628 1,952,240 2,102,438 2,132,246 2,420,841 3,012,861 3,374,791 3,957,345
Accounts Receivable 170,011 184,594 200,532 215,513 231,235 246,420 250,462 261,339
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 1,791,175 2,169,369 2,335,505 2,380,294 2,684,611 3,291,816 3,657,789 4,251,219
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 5,094,892 5,345,165 5,848,700 6,469,094 6,868,016 6,984,306 7,355,808 7,525,417
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (2,663,587) (2,989,335) (3,333,927) (3,639,918) (3,954,601) (4,259,384) (4,581,713) (4,906,842)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,431,304 2,355,830 2,514,772 2,829,176 2,913,415 2,724,922 2,774,095 2,618,575
Total Asset 4,222,479 4,525,200 4,850,277 5,209,470 5,598,026 6,016,739 6,431,884 6,869,794
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 111,846 127,639 137,657 147,221 157,260 167,083 170,918 178,558
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 382,295 398,089 408,106 417,670 427,710 437,533 441,368 449,008
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 3,647,132 3,934,059 4,249,120 4,598,748 4,977,265 5,386,154 5,797,464 6,227,735
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 3,751,794 4,038,721 4,353,781 4,703,409 5,081,926 5,490,816 5,902,126 6,332,396
Total Liabilities and Equity 4,222,479 4,525,200 4,850,277 5,209,470 5,598,026 6,016,739 6,431,884 6,869,794
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (3 of 4)
146
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Current Asset
Cash 4,379,215 4,741,299 5,208,112 5,636,416 6,210,115 6,899,713 7,150,689 8,013,981
Accounts Receivable 272,751 284,725 297,290 310,477 324,319 338,851 354,107 370,126
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 4,684,501 5,058,559 5,537,937 5,979,428 6,566,969 7,271,098 7,537,331 8,416,641
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 7,899,463 8,372,878 8,777,041 9,258,492 9,630,507 9,917,925 10,692,889 10,885,922
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (5,259,724) (5,634,297) (6,024,517) (6,432,993) (6,855,065) (7,283,840) (7,738,565) (8,195,863)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,639,739 2,738,581 2,752,523 2,825,499 2,775,442 2,634,085 2,954,324 2,690,059
Total Asset 7,324,240 7,797,140 8,290,460 8,804,926 9,342,411 9,905,183 10,491,655 11,106,701
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 186,577 194,995 203,831 213,109 222,850 233,081 243,825 255,110
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 457,027 465,444 474,281 483,558 493,300 503,530 514,274 525,559
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 6,674,162 7,138,644 7,623,128 8,128,317 8,656,060 9,208,602 9,784,330 10,388,091
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 6,778,823 7,243,306 7,727,790 8,232,978 8,760,721 9,313,263 9,888,991 10,492,752
Total Liabilities and Equity 7,324,240 7,797,140 8,290,460 8,804,926 9,342,411 9,905,183 10,491,655 11,106,701
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (4 of 4)
147
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2039 2040
Current Asset
Cash 8,544,463 4,881,304
Accounts Receivable 386,947 404,614
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - -
Total Current Asset 8,963,945 5,318,453
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 11,455,102 11,542,394
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (8,669,326) (9,123,125)
Intangible Asset - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,785,776 2,419,269
Total Asset 11,749,721 7,737,723
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 266,964 279,417
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 537,413 549,866
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 11,019,256 6,994,805
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 11,123,918 7,099,467
Total Liabilities and Equity 11,749,721 7,737,723
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (1 of 4)
148
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current Asset
Cash 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 270,372 270,372 270,372 324,117
Accounts Receivable 77,453 93,175 103,203 112,402 122,110 134,034 147,210 159,685
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 640,130 655,852 665,880 675,079 425,018 436,941 450,117 516,337
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 1,743,956 2,347,457 3,063,254 3,621,174 3,953,442 4,314,647 4,696,702 4,989,496
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (660,528) (739,006) (838,728) (944,317) (1,061,871) (1,188,876) (1,321,302) (1,467,673)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 1,083,428 1,608,450 2,224,526 2,676,857 2,891,572 3,125,772 3,375,400 3,521,823
Total Asset 1,723,558 2,264,303 2,890,406 3,351,936 3,316,590 3,562,712 3,825,516 4,038,160
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 28,629 31,500 40,563 53,678 74,448 104,200 136,123 169,475
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 299,078 301,949 311,012 324,128 344,898 374,650 406,573 439,925
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 1,231,428 1,769,302 2,386,343 2,834,757 2,778,641 2,995,011 3,225,892 3,405,183
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 1,336,090 1,873,963 2,491,004 2,939,418 2,883,302 3,099,673 3,330,554 3,509,845
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,723,558 2,264,303 2,890,406 3,351,936 3,316,590 3,562,712 3,825,516 4,038,160
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (2 of 4)
149
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Asset
Cash 584,218 714,494 714,494 714,494 775,734 1,147,937 1,279,468 1,626,801
Accounts Receivable 170,011 184,594 200,532 215,513 231,235 246,420 250,462 261,339
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 786,764 931,624 947,562 962,542 1,039,503 1,426,893 1,562,465 1,920,675
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 5,094,892 5,345,165 5,848,700 6,469,094 6,868,016 6,984,306 7,355,808 7,525,417
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (1,615,603) (1,765,879) (1,918,720) (2,080,394) (2,251,574) (2,423,880) (2,600,888) (2,779,844)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 3,479,288 3,579,286 3,929,980 4,388,700 4,616,443 4,560,426 4,754,920 4,745,573
Total Asset 4,266,053 4,510,910 4,877,541 5,351,242 5,655,946 5,987,319 6,317,385 6,666,248
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 201,877 228,635 244,635 260,382 275,713 284,271 293,883 303,277
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 472,327 499,085 515,084 530,831 546,162 554,720 564,333 573,726
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 3,600,674 3,818,773 4,169,406 4,627,359 4,916,732 5,239,547 5,560,001 5,899,471
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 3,705,336 3,923,435 4,274,067 4,732,021 5,021,394 5,344,209 5,664,662 6,004,132
Total Liabilities and Equity 4,266,053 4,510,910 4,877,541 5,351,242 5,655,946 5,987,319 6,317,385 6,666,248
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (3 of 4)
150
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Current Asset
Cash 1,793,304 1,884,427 2,069,057 2,206,412 2,480,105 2,866,165 2,866,165 3,409,901
Accounts Receivable 272,751 284,725 297,290 310,477 324,319 338,851 354,107 370,126
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 2,098,590 2,201,687 2,398,881 2,549,424 2,836,959 3,237,551 3,252,807 3,812,562
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 7,899,463 8,372,878 8,777,041 9,258,492 9,630,507 9,917,925 10,692,889 10,885,922
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (2,962,900) (3,149,715) (3,339,048) (3,536,194) (3,737,284) (3,940,447) (4,151,344) (4,363,523)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 4,936,563 5,223,162 5,437,992 5,722,298 5,893,222 5,977,478 6,541,545 6,522,400
Total Asset 7,035,153 7,424,850 7,836,874 8,271,723 8,730,182 9,215,029 9,794,352 10,334,962
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 313,509 324,065 334,726 347,171 359,109 370,992 385,002 397,634
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 583,958 594,514 605,176 617,621 629,559 641,442 655,452 668,084
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 6,258,143 6,637,284 7,038,647 7,461,051 7,907,572 8,380,536 8,945,849 9,473,826
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 6,362,804 6,741,945 7,143,308 7,565,712 8,012,233 8,485,197 9,050,511 9,578,488
Total Liabilities and Equity 7,035,153 7,424,850 7,836,874 8,271,723 8,730,182 9,215,029 9,794,352 10,334,962
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (4 of 4)
151
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2039 2040
Current Asset
Cash 3,613,242 4,331,173
Accounts Receivable 386,947 404,614
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - -
Total Current Asset 4,032,725 4,768,322
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 11,455,102 11,542,394
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (4,581,007) (4,799,243)
Intangible Asset - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - -
Total Non-current Asset 6,874,094 6,743,151
Total Asset 10,906,819 11,511,473
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 412,034 425,505
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 682,484 695,954
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 10,031,284 10,622,468
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 10,135,945 10,727,129
Total Liabilities and Equity 10,906,819 11,511,473
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (1 of 4)
152
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current Asset
Cash 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 583,887
Accounts Receivable 77,453 93,175 103,203 112,402 122,110 134,034 147,210 159,685
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 640,130 655,852 665,880 675,079 684,787 696,710 709,886 776,106
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 1,743,956 2,347,457 3,063,254 3,621,174 3,953,442 4,314,647 4,696,702 4,989,496
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (660,528) (739,006) (838,728) (944,317) (1,061,871) (1,188,876) (1,321,302) (1,467,673)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 1,083,428 1,608,450 2,224,526 2,676,857 2,891,572 3,125,772 3,375,400 3,521,823
Total Asset 1,723,558 2,264,303 2,890,406 3,351,936 3,576,359 3,822,482 4,085,286 4,297,929
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 28,629 31,500 40,563 53,678 74,448 104,200 136,123 169,475
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 299,078 301,949 311,012 324,128 344,898 374,650 406,573 439,925
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 1,231,428 1,769,302 2,386,343 2,834,757 3,038,410 3,254,781 3,485,662 3,664,953
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 1,336,090 1,873,963 2,491,004 2,939,418 3,143,072 3,359,442 3,590,323 3,769,614
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,723,558 2,264,303 2,890,406 3,351,936 3,576,359 3,822,482 4,085,286 4,297,929
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (2 of 4)
153
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Asset
Cash 843,987 974,264 974,264 974,264 1,035,503 1,407,707 1,539,237 1,886,570
Accounts Receivable 170,011 184,594 200,532 215,513 231,235 246,420 250,462 261,339
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 1,046,534 1,191,393 1,207,331 1,222,312 1,299,273 1,686,662 1,822,234 2,180,445
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 5,094,892 5,345,165 5,848,700 6,469,094 6,868,016 6,984,306 7,355,808 7,525,417
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (1,615,603) (1,765,879) (1,918,720) (2,080,394) (2,251,574) (2,423,880) (2,600,888) (2,779,844)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 3,479,288 3,579,286 3,929,980 4,388,700 4,616,443 4,560,426 4,754,920 4,745,573
Total Asset 4,525,822 4,770,679 5,137,311 5,611,011 5,915,716 6,247,089 6,577,154 6,926,018
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 201,877 228,635 244,635 260,382 275,713 284,271 293,883 303,277
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 472,327 499,085 515,084 530,831 546,162 554,720 564,333 573,726
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 3,860,444 4,078,543 4,429,175 4,887,129 5,176,502 5,499,317 5,819,771 6,159,240
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 3,965,105 4,183,204 4,533,837 4,991,790 5,281,163 5,603,978 5,924,432 6,263,902
Total Liabilities and Equity 4,525,822 4,770,679 5,137,311 5,611,011 5,915,716 6,247,089 6,577,154 6,926,018
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (3 of 4)
154
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Current Asset
Cash 2,053,073 2,144,197 2,328,826 2,466,182 2,739,875 3,125,935 3,125,935 3,669,671
Accounts Receivable 272,751 284,725 297,290 310,477 324,319 338,851 354,107 370,126
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 2,358,359 2,461,457 2,658,651 2,809,194 3,096,729 3,497,320 3,512,576 4,072,331
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 7,899,463 8,372,878 8,777,041 9,258,492 9,630,507 9,917,925 10,692,889 10,885,922
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (2,962,900) (3,149,715) (3,339,048) (3,536,194) (3,737,284) (3,940,447) (4,151,344) (4,363,523)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 4,936,563 5,223,162 5,437,992 5,722,298 5,893,222 5,977,478 6,541,545 6,522,400
Total Asset 7,294,922 7,684,619 8,096,643 8,531,492 8,989,951 9,474,798 10,054,122 10,594,731
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 313,509 324,065 334,726 347,171 359,109 370,992 385,002 397,634
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 583,958 594,514 605,176 617,621 629,559 641,442 655,452 668,084
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 6,517,912 6,897,053 7,298,416 7,720,820 8,167,342 8,640,305 9,205,619 9,733,596
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 6,622,574 7,001,715 7,403,078 7,825,482 8,272,003 8,744,967 9,310,280 9,838,257
Total Liabilities and Equity 7,294,922 7,684,619 8,096,643 8,531,492 8,989,951 9,474,798 10,054,122 10,594,731
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (4 of 4)
155
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2039 2040
Current Asset
Cash 3,873,012 2,341,381
Accounts Receivable 386,947 404,614
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - -
Total Current Asset 4,292,494 2,778,530
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 11,455,102 11,542,394
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (4,581,007) (4,799,243)
Intangible Asset - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - -
Total Non-current Asset 6,874,094 6,743,151
Total Asset 11,166,589 9,521,681
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 412,034 425,505
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 682,484 695,954
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 10,291,053 8,632,676
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 10,395,715 8,737,337
Total Liabilities and Equity 11,166,589 9,521,681
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(1 of 4)
156
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current Asset
Cash 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 312,569 411,289 532,033 785,107
Accounts Receivable 75,904 91,312 101,139 110,154 119,668 131,353 144,265 156,491
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 638,581 653,989 663,816 672,831 464,772 575,177 708,833 974,133
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 1,743,956 2,347,457 3,063,254 3,621,174 3,953,442 4,314,647 4,696,702 4,989,496
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (683,564) (825,801) (1,024,807) (1,258,295) (1,499,302) (1,761,867) (2,044,895) (2,349,594)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 1,060,392 1,521,656 2,038,447 2,362,879 2,454,141 2,552,781 2,651,806 2,639,902
Total Asset 1,698,973 2,175,645 2,702,263 3,035,710 2,918,913 3,127,957 3,360,640 3,614,036
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 17,188 19,907 24,230 30,356 40,567 56,230 73,556 91,382
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 287,638 290,356 294,679 300,805 311,016 326,679 344,005 361,832
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 1,218,284 1,692,237 2,214,532 2,541,854 2,414,846 2,608,227 2,823,583 3,059,153
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 1,322,945 1,796,899 2,319,193 2,646,515 2,519,507 2,712,888 2,928,245 3,163,814
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,698,973 2,175,645 2,702,263 3,035,710 2,918,913 3,127,957 3,360,640 3,614,036
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(2 of 4)
157
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Asset
Cash 1,255,159 1,610,720 1,752,289 1,772,795 2,051,395 2,632,736 2,983,678 3,554,805
Accounts Receivable 166,611 180,902 196,522 211,203 226,610 241,492 245,453 256,113
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 1,454,305 1,824,158 1,981,346 2,016,532 2,310,540 2,906,763 3,261,666 3,843,453
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 5,094,892 5,345,165 5,848,700 6,469,094 6,868,016 6,984,306 7,355,808 7,525,417
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (2,663,587) (2,989,335) (3,333,927) (3,639,918) (3,954,601) (4,259,384) (4,581,713) (4,906,842)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,431,304 2,355,830 2,514,772 2,829,176 2,913,415 2,724,922 2,774,095 2,618,575
Total Asset 3,885,609 4,179,988 4,496,118 4,845,708 5,223,955 5,631,685 6,035,761 6,462,028
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 109,917 125,441 135,287 144,691 154,563 164,225 168,021 175,548
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 380,367 395,891 405,737 415,141 425,013 434,674 438,470 445,998
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 3,312,191 3,591,046 3,897,330 4,237,516 4,605,891 5,003,959 5,404,240 5,822,979
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 3,416,852 3,695,707 4,001,992 4,342,177 4,710,552 5,108,621 5,508,901 5,927,641
Total Liabilities and Equity 3,885,609 4,179,988 4,496,118 4,845,708 5,223,955 5,631,685 6,035,761 6,462,028
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(3 of 4)
158
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Current Asset
Cash 3,964,729 4,314,319 4,768,062 5,182,691 5,742,080 6,416,701 6,651,997 7,498,870
Accounts Receivable 267,296 279,030 291,344 304,268 317,833 332,074 347,024 362,723
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 4,264,560 4,625,884 5,091,941 5,519,494 6,092,448 6,781,309 7,031,556 7,894,128
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 7,899,463 8,372,878 8,777,041 9,258,492 9,630,507 9,917,925 10,692,889 10,885,922
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (5,259,724) (5,634,297) (6,024,517) (6,432,993) (6,855,065) (7,283,840) (7,738,565) (8,195,863)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,639,739 2,738,581 2,752,523 2,825,499 2,775,442 2,634,085 2,954,324 2,690,059
Total Asset 6,904,299 7,364,465 7,844,464 8,344,992 8,867,890 9,415,394 9,985,881 10,584,187
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 183,449 191,743 200,451 209,594 219,196 229,279 239,870 250,994
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 453,899 462,193 470,901 480,044 489,645 499,729 510,319 521,444
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 6,257,349 6,709,221 7,180,512 7,671,897 8,185,194 8,722,614 9,282,510 9,869,693
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 6,362,010 6,813,882 7,285,174 7,776,558 8,289,855 8,827,275 9,387,171 9,974,354
Total Liabilities and Equity 6,904,299 7,364,465 7,844,464 8,344,992 8,867,890 9,415,394 9,985,881 10,584,187
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(4 of 4)
159
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2039 2040
Current Asset
Cash 8,012,157 9,020,867
Accounts Receivable 379,209 396,522
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - -
Total Current Asset 8,423,900 9,449,924
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 11,455,102 11,542,394
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (8,669,326) (9,123,125)
Intangible Asset - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,785,776 2,419,269
Total Asset 11,209,676 11,869,193
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 262,680 274,958
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 533,130 545,407
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 10,483,495 11,130,735
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 10,588,156 11,235,396
Total Liabilities and Equity 11,209,676 11,869,193
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(1 of 4)
160
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current Asset
Cash 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 612,881 711,205 831,237 1,083,570
Accounts Receivable 75,904 91,312 101,139 110,154 119,668 131,353 144,265 156,491
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 638,581 653,989 663,816 672,831 765,084 875,093 1,008,037 1,272,596
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 1,743,956 2,347,457 3,063,254 3,621,174 3,953,442 4,314,647 4,696,702 4,989,496
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (683,564) (825,801) (1,024,807) (1,258,295) (1,499,302) (1,761,867) (2,044,895) (2,349,594)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 1,060,392 1,521,656 2,038,447 2,362,879 2,454,141 2,552,781 2,651,806 2,639,902
Total Asset 1,698,973 2,175,645 2,702,263 3,035,710 3,219,225 3,427,873 3,659,844 3,912,499
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 17,188 19,907 24,230 30,356 40,567 56,614 74,034 91,953
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 287,638 290,356 294,679 300,805 311,016 327,064 344,484 362,402
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 1,218,284 1,692,237 2,214,532 2,541,854 2,715,157 2,907,758 3,122,309 3,357,045
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 1,322,945 1,796,899 2,319,193 2,646,515 2,819,819 3,012,420 3,226,970 3,461,707
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,698,973 2,175,645 2,702,263 3,035,710 3,219,225 3,427,873 3,659,844 3,912,499
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(2 of 4)
161
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Asset
Cash 1,552,858 1,907,594 2,048,268 2,067,849 2,345,493 2,925,848 3,275,770 3,845,843
Accounts Receivable 166,611 180,902 196,522 211,203 226,610 241,492 245,453 256,113
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 1,752,005 2,121,031 2,277,324 2,311,586 2,604,638 3,199,874 3,553,758 4,134,490
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 5,094,892 5,345,165 5,848,700 6,469,094 6,868,016 6,984,306 7,355,808 7,525,417
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (2,663,587) (2,989,335) (3,333,927) (3,639,918) (3,954,601) (4,259,384) (4,581,713) (4,906,842)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,431,304 2,355,830 2,514,772 2,829,176 2,913,415 2,724,922 2,774,095 2,618,575
Total Asset 4,183,309 4,476,861 4,792,097 5,140,762 5,518,053 5,924,796 6,327,853 6,753,065
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 110,586 126,172 136,043 145,472 155,370 165,058 168,882 176,438
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 381,035 396,622 406,492 415,921 425,819 435,508 439,332 446,888
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 3,609,222 3,887,188 4,192,553 4,531,789 4,899,183 5,296,237 5,695,470 6,113,126
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 3,713,884 3,991,850 4,297,215 4,636,451 5,003,844 5,400,899 5,800,131 6,217,788
Total Liabilities and Equity 4,183,309 4,476,861 4,792,097 5,140,762 5,518,053 5,924,796 6,327,853 6,753,065
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(3 of 4)
162
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Current Asset
Cash 4,254,677 4,603,141 5,055,721 5,469,149 6,027,296 6,700,633 6,934,603 7,780,106
Accounts Receivable 267,296 279,030 291,344 304,268 317,833 332,074 347,024 362,723
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 4,554,508 4,914,706 5,379,600 5,805,951 6,377,664 7,065,241 7,314,163 8,175,364
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 7,899,463 8,372,878 8,777,041 9,258,492 9,630,507 9,917,925 10,692,889 10,885,922
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (5,259,724) (5,634,297) (6,024,517) (6,432,993) (6,855,065) (7,283,840) (7,738,565) (8,195,863)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,639,739 2,738,581 2,752,523 2,825,499 2,775,442 2,634,085 2,954,324 2,690,059
Total Asset 7,194,247 7,653,287 8,132,124 8,631,450 9,153,106 9,699,326 10,268,487 10,865,423
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 184,369 192,694 201,433 210,609 220,244 230,363 240,989 252,151
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 454,818 463,143 471,883 481,059 490,694 500,812 511,439 522,601
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 6,546,377 6,997,093 7,467,190 7,957,340 8,469,361 9,005,463 9,563,997 10,149,772
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 6,651,039 7,101,754 7,571,851 8,062,001 8,574,022 9,110,124 9,668,658 10,254,433
Total Liabilities and Equity 7,194,247 7,653,287 8,132,124 8,631,450 9,153,106 9,699,326 10,268,487 10,865,423
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(4 of 4)
163
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2039 2040
Current Asset
Cash 8,291,977 4,742,604
Accounts Receivable 379,209 396,522
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - -
Total Current Asset 8,703,720 5,171,661
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 11,455,102 11,542,394
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (8,669,326) (9,123,125)
Intangible Asset - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,785,776 2,419,269
Total Asset 11,489,496 7,590,931
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 263,876 276,193
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 534,325 546,643
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 10,762,119 6,851,237
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 10,866,781 6,955,898
Total Liabilities and Equity 11,489,496 7,590,931
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (1 of 4)
164
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current Asset
Cash 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 315,618 420,888 548,783 809,610
Accounts Receivable 77,453 93,175 103,203 112,402 122,110 134,034 147,210 159,685
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 640,130 655,852 665,880 675,079 470,263 587,456 728,528 1,001,830
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 1,743,956 2,347,457 3,063,254 3,621,174 3,953,442 4,314,647 4,696,702 4,989,496
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (683,564) (825,801) (1,024,807) (1,258,295) (1,499,302) (1,761,867) (2,044,895) (2,349,594)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 1,060,392 1,521,656 2,038,447 2,362,879 2,454,141 2,552,781 2,651,806 2,639,902
Total Asset 1,700,522 2,177,508 2,704,327 3,037,958 2,924,404 3,140,237 3,380,334 3,641,732
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 17,357 20,107 24,476 30,665 40,988 56,844 74,383 92,431
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 287,806 290,556 294,926 301,115 311,437 327,294 344,833 362,881
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 1,219,664 1,693,901 2,216,350 2,543,792 2,419,915 2,619,892 2,842,450 3,085,800
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 1,324,326 1,798,562 2,321,011 2,648,453 2,524,576 2,724,553 2,947,111 3,190,461
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,700,522 2,177,508 2,704,327 3,037,958 2,924,404 3,140,237 3,380,334 3,641,732
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (2 of 4)
165
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Asset
Cash 1,287,948 1,652,371 1,803,445 1,834,160 2,123,692 2,716,680 3,093,326 3,709,574
Accounts Receivable 170,011 184,594 200,532 215,513 231,235 246,420 258,687 278,678
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 1,490,495 1,869,500 2,036,513 2,082,208 2,387,462 2,995,635 3,384,549 4,020,787
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 5,094,892 5,345,165 5,848,700 6,469,094 6,868,016 6,984,306 7,355,808 7,525,417
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (2,663,587) (2,989,335) (3,333,927) (3,639,918) (3,954,601) (4,259,384) (4,581,713) (4,906,842)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,431,304 2,355,830 2,514,772 2,829,176 2,913,415 2,724,922 2,774,095 2,618,575
Total Asset 3,921,799 4,225,330 4,551,285 4,911,384 5,300,877 5,720,557 6,158,644 6,639,362
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 111,191 126,923 136,916 146,456 156,470 166,266 174,552 187,126
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 381,640 397,372 407,366 416,905 426,919 436,716 445,002 457,576
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 3,347,108 3,634,906 3,950,868 4,301,427 4,680,906 5,090,790 5,520,591 5,988,735
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 3,451,769 3,739,568 4,055,529 4,406,089 4,785,568 5,195,451 5,625,252 6,093,396
Total Liabilities and Equity 3,921,799 4,225,330 4,551,285 4,911,384 5,300,877 5,720,557 6,158,644 6,639,362
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (3 of 4)
166
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Current Asset
Cash 4,186,124 4,609,981 5,141,880 5,638,760 6,284,714 7,050,445 7,381,638 8,329,452
Accounts Receivable 300,164 313,618 327,743 342,575 358,150 374,508 391,690 409,738
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 4,518,823 4,956,133 5,502,157 6,013,869 6,675,399 7,457,488 7,805,863 8,771,725
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 7,899,463 8,372,878 8,777,041 9,258,492 9,630,507 9,917,925 10,692,889 10,885,922
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (5,259,724) (5,634,297) (6,024,517) (6,432,993) (6,855,065) (7,283,840) (7,738,565) (8,195,863)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,639,739 2,738,581 2,752,523 2,825,499 2,775,442 2,634,085 2,954,324 2,690,059
Total Asset 7,158,562 7,694,714 8,254,681 8,839,368 9,450,842 10,091,573 10,760,187 11,461,785
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 200,601 209,794 219,449 229,590 240,242 251,432 263,189 275,543
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 471,050 480,243 489,898 500,039 510,691 521,882 533,639 545,992
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 6,494,460 7,021,420 7,571,731 8,146,278 8,747,099 9,376,639 10,033,497 10,722,741
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 6,599,122 7,126,081 7,676,393 8,250,939 8,851,760 9,481,301 10,138,159 10,827,403
Total Liabilities and Equity 7,158,562 7,694,714 8,254,681 8,839,368 9,450,842 10,091,573 10,760,187 11,461,785
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (4 of 4)
167
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2039 2040
Current Asset
Cash 8,948,992 10,069,553
Accounts Receivable 428,699 448,621
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - -
Total Current Asset 9,410,227 10,550,709
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 11,455,102 11,542,394
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (8,669,326) (9,123,125)
Intangible Asset - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,785,776 2,419,269
Total Asset 12,196,002 12,969,978
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 288,524 302,165
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 558,973 572,615
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 11,443,978 12,204,312
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 11,548,639 12,308,974
Total Liabilities and Equity 12,196,002 12,969,978
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (1 of 4)
168
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current Asset
Cash 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 618,858 723,740 850,938 1,111,038
Accounts Receivable 77,453 93,175 103,203 112,402 122,110 134,034 147,210 159,685
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 640,130 655,852 665,880 675,079 773,503 890,309 1,030,682 1,303,258
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 1,743,956 2,347,457 3,063,254 3,621,174 3,953,442 4,314,647 4,696,702 4,989,496
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (683,564) (825,801) (1,024,807) (1,258,295) (1,499,302) (1,761,867) (2,044,895) (2,349,594)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 1,060,392 1,521,656 2,038,447 2,362,879 2,454,141 2,552,781 2,651,806 2,639,902
Total Asset 1,700,522 2,177,508 2,704,327 3,037,958 3,227,644 3,443,090 3,682,488 3,943,160
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 17,357 20,107 24,476 30,665 40,988 57,221 74,852 92,991
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 287,806 290,556 294,926 301,115 311,437 327,671 345,302 363,440
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 1,219,664 1,693,901 2,216,350 2,543,792 2,723,156 2,922,367 3,144,135 3,386,668
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 1,324,326 1,798,562 2,321,011 2,648,453 2,827,817 3,027,029 3,248,797 3,491,330
Total Liabilities and Equity 1,700,522 2,177,508 2,704,327 3,037,958 3,227,644 3,443,090 3,682,488 3,943,160
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (2 of 4)
169
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Current Asset
Cash 1,588,628 1,952,240 2,102,438 2,132,246 2,420,841 3,012,861 3,388,508 4,003,722
Accounts Receivable 170,011 184,594 200,532 215,513 231,235 246,420 258,687 278,678
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 1,791,175 2,169,369 2,335,505 2,380,294 2,684,611 3,291,816 3,679,730 4,314,935
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 5,094,892 5,345,165 5,848,700 6,469,094 6,868,016 6,984,306 7,355,808 7,525,417
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (2,663,587) (2,989,335) (3,333,927) (3,639,918) (3,954,601) (4,259,384) (4,581,713) (4,906,842)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,431,304 2,355,830 2,514,772 2,829,176 2,913,415 2,724,922 2,774,095 2,618,575
Total Asset 4,222,479 4,525,200 4,850,277 5,209,470 5,598,026 6,016,739 6,453,825 6,933,510
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 111,846 127,639 137,657 147,221 157,260 167,083 175,397 187,999
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 382,295 398,089 408,106 417,670 427,710 437,533 445,846 458,448
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 3,647,132 3,934,059 4,249,120 4,598,748 4,977,265 5,386,154 5,814,928 6,282,011
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 3,751,794 4,038,721 4,353,781 4,703,409 5,081,926 5,490,816 5,919,589 6,386,672
Total Liabilities and Equity 4,222,479 4,525,200 4,850,277 5,209,470 5,598,026 6,016,739 6,453,825 6,933,510
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (3 of 4)
170
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Current Asset
Cash 4,479,205 4,901,958 5,432,716 5,928,418 6,573,155 7,337,627 7,667,521 8,613,991
Accounts Receivable 300,164 313,618 327,743 342,575 358,150 374,508 391,690 409,738
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - - - - - - - -
Total Current Asset 4,811,903 5,248,110 5,792,994 6,303,528 6,963,840 7,744,670 8,091,745 9,056,264
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 7,899,463 8,372,878 8,777,041 9,258,492 9,630,507 9,917,925 10,692,889 10,885,922
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (5,259,724) (5,634,297) (6,024,517) (6,432,993) (6,855,065) (7,283,840) (7,738,565) (8,195,863)
Intangible Asset - - - - - - - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - - - - - - - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,639,739 2,738,581 2,752,523 2,825,499 2,775,442 2,634,085 2,954,324 2,690,059
Total Asset 7,451,642 7,986,691 8,545,517 9,129,026 9,739,282 10,378,755 11,046,070 11,746,324
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 201,502 210,725 220,411 230,584 241,270 252,495 264,287 276,677
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - - - - - - - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690 690 690 690 690 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 471,952 481,175 490,861 501,034 511,719 522,944 534,737 547,127
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 6,786,639 7,312,465 7,861,605 8,434,941 9,034,511 9,662,759 10,318,282 11,006,146
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 6,891,300 7,417,126 7,966,266 8,539,602 9,139,173 9,767,421 10,422,943 11,110,807
Total Liabilities and Equity 7,451,642 7,986,691 8,545,517 9,129,026 9,739,282 10,378,755 11,046,070 11,746,324
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Balance Sheet Projection of TPSScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (4 of 4)
171
Project Portiga
3.6 Balance sheet projection of TPS
Balance sheet IDR in million 2039 2040
Current Asset
Cash 9,232,143 5,279,147
Accounts Receivable 428,699 448,621
Prepayments, Deposits & Other Receivables 29,295 29,295
Inventories 3,240 3,240
Other Current Asset - -
Total Current Asset 9,693,377 5,760,303
Non-current Asset:
Tangible Fixed Asset 11,455,102 11,542,394
Tangible Fixed Asset - Accumulated Depreciation (8,669,326) (9,123,125)
Intangible Asset - -
Intangible Asset - Accumulated Amortization - -
Total Non-current Asset 2,785,776 2,419,269
Total Asset 12,479,153 8,179,572
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable 289,696 303,376
Advances, Deposits, Accruals and Other Liabilities 172,636 172,636
Pension & Post-employment Benefits - -
VAT Payable/(Receivable) 79,965 79,965
Current Tax Liabilities 17,158 17,158
Other Current Liabilities 690 690
Total Current Liabilities 560,145 573,826
Non-current Liabilities:
Deferred Tax Liabilities/(Assets) 41,950 41,950
Other Long-term Liabilities 46,440 46,440
Total Non-current Liabilities 88,390 88,390
Shareholders' Equity
Capital Stock 104,661 104,661
Retained Earnings 11,725,957 7,412,695
Total Equity Attributable to Owners of the Company 11,830,618 7,517,357
Total Liabilities and Equity 12,479,153 8,179,572
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Cash flow projection of TPS
172
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (1 of 4)
173
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 1,124,463 1,270,618 1,322,553 1,356,241 1,436,764 1,595,742 1,766,750 1,927,031
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (261,535) (282,095) (280,887) (280,688) (298,939) (333,294) (370,930) (405,583)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP (1,773) 2,750 4,369 6,189 10,323 15,856 17,539 18,048
Change in AR (8,233) (15,723) (10,027) (9,199) (9,708) (11,923) (13,176) (12,475)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items 66,276 - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 919,198 975,550 1,036,009 1,072,542 1,138,439 1,266,381 1,400,183 1,527,021
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (438,689) (372,050) (320,211) (514,622) (717,454) (799,906) (890,233) (973,399)
Cash contribution at the end of concession (303,240)
Total Cash Flow from Financing (438,689) (372,050) (320,211) (514,622) (1,020,695) (799,906) (890,233) (973,399)
Beginning Cash Balance 468,667 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 315,618 420,888 548,783
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 61,475 - - - (214,524) 105,270 127,896 260,827
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 315,618 420,888 548,783 809,610
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPS Scenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (2 of 4)
174
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 2,056,046 2,244,407 2,451,003 2,643,052 2,844,543 3,037,341 3,071,245 3,200,674
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (435,513) (479,665) (526,603) (584,265) (632,465) (683,140) (687,229) (718,886)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 18,759 15,732 9,993 9,540 10,014 9,797 3,808 7,612
Change in AR (10,327) (14,583) (15,938) (14,981) (15,722) (15,186) (4,042) (10,877)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,628,965 1,765,892 1,918,456 2,053,346 2,206,370 2,348,812 2,383,782 2,478,523
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,045,231) (1,151,196) (1,263,846) (1,402,237) (1,517,916) (1,639,535) (1,649,350) (1,725,327)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,045,231) (1,151,196) (1,263,846) (1,402,237) (1,517,916) (1,639,535) (1,649,350) (1,725,327)
Beginning Cash Balance 809,610 1,287,948 1,652,371 1,803,445 1,834,160 2,123,692 2,716,680 3,079,610
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 478,339 364,422 151,075 30,715 289,532 592,988 362,930 583,587
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 1,287,948 1,652,371 1,803,445 1,834,160 2,123,692 2,716,680 3,079,610 3,663,197
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (3 of 4)
175
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 3,336,377 3,478,680 3,627,923 3,784,469 3,948,695 4,121,003 4,301,814 4,491,571
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (745,874) (776,027) (809,426) (843,998) (881,656) (923,057) (961,772) (1,008,568)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 7,990 8,387 8,805 9,246 9,709 10,196 10,709 11,248
Change in AR (11,412) (11,974) (12,565) (13,187) (13,842) (14,531) (15,256) (16,019)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 2,587,082 2,699,066 2,814,738 2,936,529 3,062,906 3,193,611 3,335,494 3,478,232
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,790,097) (1,862,464) (1,942,622) (2,025,595) (2,115,974) (2,215,337) (2,308,254) (2,420,564)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,790,097) (1,862,464) (1,942,622) (2,025,595) (2,115,974) (2,215,337) (2,308,254) (2,420,564)
Beginning Cash Balance 3,663,197 4,086,135 4,449,323 4,917,276 5,346,758 5,921,674 6,612,530 6,864,807
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 422,939 363,187 467,953 429,482 574,917 690,856 252,277 864,635
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 4,086,135 4,449,323 4,917,276 5,346,758 5,921,674 6,612,530 6,864,807 7,729,442
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 1: Self operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (4 of 4)
176
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2039 2040
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 4,690,741 4,899,817
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax Paid (1,054,319) (1,111,505)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 11,816 12,414
Change in AR (16,822) (17,667)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 3,631,416 3,783,060
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (569,179) (87,292)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (569,179) (87,292)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,530,367) (2,667,611)
Cash contribution at the end of concession -
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,530,367) (2,667,611)
Beginning Cash Balance 7,729,442 8,261,312
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 531,870 1,028,156
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 8,261,312 9,289,468
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (1 of 4)
177
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 1,124,463 1,270,618 1,322,553 1,356,241 1,436,764 1,590,644 1,761,481 1,921,587
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (261,535) (282,095) (280,887) (280,688) (298,939) (332,020) (369,613) (404,222)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP (1,773) 2,750 4,369 6,189 10,323 16,234 17,631 18,138
Change in AR (8,233) (15,723) (10,027) (9,199) (9,708) (11,923) (13,176) (12,475)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items 66,276 - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 919,198 975,550 1,036,009 1,072,542 1,138,439 1,262,934 1,396,323 1,523,028
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (438,689) (372,050) (320,211) (514,622) (717,454) (796,847) (887,071) (970,133)
Cash contribution at the end of concession -
Total Cash Flow from Financing (438,689) (372,050) (320,211) (514,622) (717,454) (796,847) (887,071) (970,133)
Beginning Cash Balance 468,667 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 618,858 723,740 850,938
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 61,475 - - - 88,716 104,882 127,197 260,100
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 618,858 723,740 850,938 1,111,038
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (2 of 4)
178
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 2,050,420 2,238,594 2,444,996 2,636,845 2,838,129 3,030,713 3,064,396 3,193,597
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (434,107) (478,212) (525,101) (582,713) (630,862) (681,483) (685,517) (717,117)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 18,855 15,794 10,017 9,564 10,039 9,823 3,835 7,640
Change in AR (10,327) (14,583) (15,938) (14,981) (15,722) (15,186) (4,042) (10,877)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,624,842 1,761,593 1,913,974 2,048,715 2,201,585 2,343,868 2,378,672 2,473,243
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,041,856) (1,147,708) (1,260,242) (1,398,512) (1,514,068) (1,635,558) (1,645,240) (1,721,081)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,041,856) (1,147,708) (1,260,242) (1,398,512) (1,514,068) (1,635,558) (1,645,240) (1,721,081)
Beginning Cash Balance 1,111,038 1,588,628 1,952,240 2,102,438 2,132,246 2,420,841 3,012,861 3,374,791
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 477,590 363,612 150,198 29,808 288,595 592,020 361,930 582,553
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 1,588,628 1,952,240 2,102,438 2,132,246 2,420,841 3,012,861 3,374,791 3,957,345
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (3 of 4)
179
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 3,329,064 3,471,123 3,620,114 3,776,399 3,940,357 4,112,387 4,292,911 4,482,371
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (744,046) (774,137) (807,474) (841,981) (879,572) (920,903) (959,547) (1,006,268)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 8,019 8,417 8,837 9,278 9,742 10,230 10,744 11,285
Change in AR (11,412) (11,974) (12,565) (13,187) (13,842) (14,531) (15,256) (16,019)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 2,581,626 2,693,429 2,808,912 2,930,509 3,056,685 3,187,184 3,328,852 3,471,369
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,785,709) (1,857,930) (1,937,937) (2,020,754) (2,110,972) (2,210,167) (2,302,912) (2,415,044)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,785,709) (1,857,930) (1,937,937) (2,020,754) (2,110,972) (2,210,167) (2,302,912) (2,415,044)
Beginning Cash Balance 3,957,345 4,379,215 4,741,299 5,208,112 5,636,416 6,210,115 6,899,713 7,150,689
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 421,871 362,084 466,813 428,303 573,699 689,598 250,976 863,292
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 4,379,215 4,741,299 5,208,112 5,636,416 6,210,115 6,899,713 7,150,689 8,013,981
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 2: Joint operate - BMT revenue and capex, projected operating expenses based on average historical % from revenue, overhead expense based on inflation (4 of 4)
180
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2039 2040
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 4,681,235 4,889,994
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax Paid (1,051,943) (1,109,049)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 11,854 12,453
Change in AR (16,822) (17,667)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 3,624,324 3,775,731
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (569,179) (87,292)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (569,179) (87,292)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,524,663) (2,661,717)
Cash contribution at the end of concession (4,689,880)
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,524,663) (7,351,597)
Beginning Cash Balance 8,013,981 8,544,463
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 530,482 (3,663,159)
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 8,544,463 4,881,304
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPS Scenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (1 of 4)
181
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 878,697 1,052,096 1,030,078 985,394 993,627 1,101,995 1,228,393 1,341,646
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (205,852) (243,404) (232,589) (219,951) (219,018) (243,747) (273,992) (298,819)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 9,499 2,871 9,063 13,116 20,770 29,752 31,923 33,352
Change in AR (8,233) (15,723) (10,027) (9,199) (9,708) (11,923) (13,176) (12,475)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items 66,276 - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 740,387 795,840 796,524 769,359 785,670 876,077 973,149 1,063,704
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (259,878) (192,340) (80,727) (211,439) (453,402) (514,872) (591,094) (717,165)
Cash contribution at the end of concession (259,770)
Total Cash Flow from Financing (259,878) (192,340) (80,727) (211,439) (713,171) (514,872) (591,094) (717,165)
Beginning Cash Balance 468,667 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 270,372 270,372 270,372
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 61,475 - 0 - (259,770) - - 53,745
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 270,372 270,372 270,372 324,117
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (2 of 4)
182
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 1,451,202 1,604,271 1,773,845 1,927,606 2,100,334 2,324,406 2,313,365 2,442,089
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (325,818) (363,499) (405,251) (441,483) (482,289) (538,025) (534,089) (565,783)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 32,402 26,758 15,999 15,747 15,331 8,558 9,612 9,393
Change in AR (10,327) (14,583) (15,938) (14,981) (15,722) (15,186) (4,042) (10,877)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,147,459 1,252,947 1,368,655 1,486,889 1,617,655 1,779,753 1,784,846 1,874,822
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (781,963) (872,397) (865,121) (866,495) (1,157,493) (1,291,260) (1,281,814) (1,357,880)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (781,963) (872,397) (865,121) (866,495) (1,157,493) (1,291,260) (1,281,814) (1,357,880)
Beginning Cash Balance 324,117 584,218 714,494 714,494 714,494 775,734 1,147,937 1,279,468
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 260,101 130,277 - - 61,239 372,204 131,530 347,333
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 584,218 714,494 714,494 714,494 775,734 1,147,937 1,279,468 1,626,801
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPS Scenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (3 of 4)
183
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 2,574,203 2,714,422 2,865,085 3,013,173 3,177,898 3,356,254 3,531,243 3,732,027
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (597,787) (631,901) (668,938) (704,007) (744,202) (788,273) (830,087) (879,962)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 10,232 10,556 10,661 12,445 11,938 11,883 14,010 12,632
Change in AR (11,412) (11,974) (12,565) (13,187) (13,842) (14,531) (15,256) (16,019)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,975,237 2,081,103 2,194,243 2,308,424 2,431,792 2,565,333 2,699,910 2,848,678
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,434,688) (1,516,564) (1,605,451) (1,689,617) (1,786,085) (1,891,855) (1,924,946) (2,111,909)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,434,688) (1,516,564) (1,605,451) (1,689,617) (1,786,085) (1,891,855) (1,924,946) (2,111,909)
Beginning Cash Balance 1,626,801 1,793,304 1,884,427 2,069,057 2,206,412 2,480,105 2,866,165 2,866,165
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 166,503 91,124 184,629 137,356 273,693 386,060 - 543,736
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 1,793,304 1,884,427 2,069,057 2,206,412 2,480,105 2,866,165 2,866,165 3,409,901
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 3: Self operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (4 of 4)
184
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2039 2040
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 3,933,867 4,159,462
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax Paid (929,096) (985,307)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 14,400 13,470
Change in AR (16,822) (17,667)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 3,002,350 3,169,959
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (569,179) (87,292)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (569,179) (87,292)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,229,829) (2,364,736)
Cash contribution at the end of concession -
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,229,829) (2,364,736)
Beginning Cash Balance 3,409,901 3,613,242
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 203,341 717,931
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 3,613,242 4,331,173
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (1 of 4)
185
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 878,697 1,052,096 1,030,078 985,394 993,627 1,101,995 1,228,393 1,341,646
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (205,852) (243,404) (232,589) (219,951) (219,018) (243,747) (273,992) (298,819)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 9,499 2,871 9,063 13,116 20,770 29,752 31,923 33,352
Change in AR (8,233) (15,723) (10,027) (9,199) (9,708) (11,923) (13,176) (12,475)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items 66,276 - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 740,387 795,840 796,524 769,359 785,670 876,077 973,149 1,063,704
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (259,878) (192,340) (80,727) (211,439) (453,402) (514,872) (591,094) (717,165)
Cash contribution at the end of concession -
Total Cash Flow from Financing (259,878) (192,340) (80,727) (211,439) (453,402) (514,872) (591,094) (717,165)
Beginning Cash Balance 468,667 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 61,475 - 0 - - - - 53,745
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 583,887
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (2 of 4)
186
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 1,451,202 1,604,271 1,773,845 1,927,606 2,100,334 2,324,406 2,313,365 2,442,089
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (325,818) (363,499) (405,251) (441,483) (482,289) (538,025) (534,089) (565,783)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 32,402 26,758 15,999 15,747 15,331 8,558 9,612 9,393
Change in AR (10,327) (14,583) (15,938) (14,981) (15,722) (15,186) (4,042) (10,877)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,147,459 1,252,947 1,368,655 1,486,889 1,617,655 1,779,753 1,784,846 1,874,822
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (781,963) (872,397) (865,121) (866,495) (1,157,493) (1,291,260) (1,281,814) (1,357,880)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (781,963) (872,397) (865,121) (866,495) (1,157,493) (1,291,260) (1,281,814) (1,357,880)
Beginning Cash Balance 583,887 843,987 974,264 974,264 974,264 1,035,503 1,407,707 1,539,237
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 260,101 130,277 - - 61,239 372,204 131,530 347,333
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 843,987 974,264 974,264 974,264 1,035,503 1,407,707 1,539,237 1,886,570
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (3 of 4)
187
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 2,574,203 2,714,422 2,865,085 3,013,173 3,177,898 3,356,254 3,531,243 3,732,027
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (597,787) (631,901) (668,938) (704,007) (744,202) (788,273) (830,087) (879,962)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 10,232 10,556 10,661 12,445 11,938 11,883 14,010 12,632
Change in AR (11,412) (11,974) (12,565) (13,187) (13,842) (14,531) (15,256) (16,019)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,975,237 2,081,103 2,194,243 2,308,424 2,431,792 2,565,333 2,699,910 2,848,678
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,434,688) (1,516,564) (1,605,451) (1,689,617) (1,786,085) (1,891,855) (1,924,946) (2,111,909)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,434,688) (1,516,564) (1,605,451) (1,689,617) (1,786,085) (1,891,855) (1,924,946) (2,111,909)
Beginning Cash Balance 1,886,570 2,053,073 2,144,197 2,328,826 2,466,182 2,739,875 3,125,935 3,125,935
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 166,503 91,124 184,629 137,356 273,693 386,060 - 543,736
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 2,053,073 2,144,197 2,328,826 2,466,182 2,739,875 3,125,935 3,125,935 3,669,671
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPS Scenario 4: Joint operate - BMT revenue, capex and cost calculation (4 of 4)
188
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2039 2040
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 3,933,867 4,159,462
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax Paid (929,096) (985,307)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 14,400 13,470
Change in AR (16,822) (17,667)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 3,002,350 3,169,959
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (569,179) (87,292)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (569,179) (87,292)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,229,829) (2,364,736)
Cash contribution at the end of concession (2,249,562)
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,229,829) (4,614,298)
Beginning Cash Balance 3,669,671 3,873,012
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 203,341 (1,531,631)
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 3,873,012 2,341,381
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(1 of 4)
189
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 1,092,283 1,234,769 1,285,262 1,317,908 1,396,364 1,551,771 1,718,739 1,875,163
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (253,490) (273,133) (271,564) (271,105) (288,839) (322,302) (358,928) (392,616)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP (1,942) 2,718 4,323 6,126 10,211 15,663 17,326 17,826
Change in AR (6,684) (15,408) (9,827) (9,015) (9,514) (11,685) (12,912) (12,226)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items 66,276 - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 896,443 948,946 1,008,195 1,043,913 1,108,222 1,233,448 1,364,225 1,488,147
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (415,935) (345,446) (292,397) (485,993) (693,214) (773,524) (861,426) (942,279)
Cash contribution at the end of concession (300,312)
Total Cash Flow from Financing (415,935) (345,446) (292,397) (485,993) (993,526) (773,524) (861,426) (942,279)
Beginning Cash Balance 468,667 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 312,569 411,289 532,033
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 61,475 - - - (217,573) 98,720 120,744 253,074
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 312,569 411,289 532,033 785,107
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(2 of 4)
190
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 2,000,911 2,184,783 2,386,487 2,573,896 2,770,516 2,958,572 2,990,866 3,116,725
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (421,729) (464,759) (510,474) (566,976) (613,958) (663,447) (667,134) (697,899)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 18,535 15,524 9,846 9,404 9,872 9,662 3,796 7,527
Change in AR (10,120) (14,291) (15,619) (14,681) (15,407) (14,882) (3,961) (10,660)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,587,597 1,721,257 1,870,241 2,001,643 2,151,022 2,289,904 2,323,566 2,415,694
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,012,151) (1,115,422) (1,225,137) (1,360,743) (1,473,500) (1,592,273) (1,601,122) (1,674,957)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,012,151) (1,115,422) (1,225,137) (1,360,743) (1,473,500) (1,592,273) (1,601,122) (1,674,957)
Beginning Cash Balance 785,107 1,255,159 1,610,720 1,752,289 1,772,795 2,051,395 2,632,736 2,983,678
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 470,051 355,562 141,569 20,505 278,600 581,341 350,942 571,127
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 1,255,159 1,610,720 1,752,289 1,772,795 2,051,395 2,632,736 2,983,678 3,554,805
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(3 of 4)
191
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 3,248,681 3,387,050 3,532,165 3,684,375 3,844,049 4,011,576 4,187,366 4,371,848
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (723,950) (753,119) (785,486) (818,975) (855,494) (895,700) (933,160) (978,638)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 7,901 8,294 8,708 9,143 9,601 10,083 10,591 11,124
Change in AR (11,183) (11,734) (12,314) (12,924) (13,565) (14,240) (14,951) (15,699)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 2,521,449 2,630,491 2,743,073 2,861,620 2,984,591 3,111,719 3,249,845 3,388,636
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,737,479) (1,807,486) (1,885,167) (1,965,539) (2,053,187) (2,149,680) (2,239,585) (2,348,730)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,737,479) (1,807,486) (1,885,167) (1,965,539) (2,053,187) (2,149,680) (2,239,585) (2,348,730)
Beginning Cash Balance 3,554,805 3,964,729 4,314,319 4,768,062 5,182,691 5,742,080 6,416,701 6,651,997
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 409,924 349,589 453,743 414,629 559,389 674,620 235,296 846,873
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 3,964,729 4,314,319 4,768,062 5,182,691 5,742,080 6,416,701 6,651,997 7,498,870
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 5: Self operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(4 of 4)
192
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2039 2040
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 4,565,478 4,768,733
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax Paid (1,023,004) (1,078,734)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 11,686 12,277
Change in AR (16,485) (17,314)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 3,537,675 3,684,963
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (569,179) (87,292)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (569,179) (87,292)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,455,209) (2,588,960)
Cash contribution at the end of concession -
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,455,209) (2,588,960)
Beginning Cash Balance 7,498,870 8,012,157
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 513,287 1,008,710
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 8,012,157 9,020,867
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(1 of 4)
193
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 1,092,283 1,234,769 1,285,262 1,317,908 1,396,364 1,546,571 1,713,365 1,869,609
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (253,490) (273,133) (271,564) (271,105) (288,839) (321,001) (357,584) (391,228)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP (1,942) 2,718 4,323 6,126 10,211 16,048 17,420 17,918
Change in AR (6,684) (15,408) (9,827) (9,015) (9,514) (11,685) (12,912) (12,226)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items 66,276 - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 896,443 948,946 1,008,195 1,043,913 1,108,222 1,229,932 1,360,288 1,484,074
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (415,935) (345,446) (292,397) (485,993) (693,214) (770,403) (858,202) (938,947)
Cash contribution at the end of concession -
Total Cash Flow from Financing (415,935) (345,446) (292,397) (485,993) (693,214) (770,403) (858,202) (938,947)
Beginning Cash Balance 468,667 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 612,881 711,205 831,237
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 61,475 - - - 82,739 98,324 120,032 252,333
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 612,881 711,205 831,237 1,083,570
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(2 of 4)
194
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 1,995,173 2,178,854 2,380,360 2,567,565 2,763,974 2,951,811 2,983,880 3,109,506
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (420,295) (463,277) (508,942) (565,393) (612,323) (661,757) (665,388) (696,094)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 18,633 15,586 9,871 9,429 9,898 9,689 3,824 7,556
Change in AR (10,120) (14,291) (15,619) (14,681) (15,407) (14,882) (3,961) (10,660)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,583,391 1,716,873 1,865,670 1,996,919 2,146,141 2,284,861 2,318,355 2,410,308
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,008,708) (1,111,864) (1,221,461) (1,356,944) (1,469,574) (1,588,217) (1,596,931) (1,670,626)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,008,708) (1,111,864) (1,221,461) (1,356,944) (1,469,574) (1,588,217) (1,596,931) (1,670,626)
Beginning Cash Balance 1,083,570 1,552,858 1,907,594 2,048,268 2,067,849 2,345,493 2,925,848 3,275,770
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 469,288 354,735 140,674 19,581 277,645 580,354 349,922 570,073
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 1,552,858 1,907,594 2,048,268 2,067,849 2,345,493 2,925,848 3,275,770 3,845,843
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(3 of 4)
195
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 3,241,222 3,379,342 3,524,200 3,676,144 3,835,544 4,002,788 4,178,284 4,362,464
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (722,085) (751,192) (783,495) (816,917) (853,368) (893,503) (930,890) (976,292)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 7,931 8,325 8,740 9,176 9,635 10,118 10,627 11,162
Change in AR (11,183) (11,734) (12,314) (12,924) (13,565) (14,240) (14,951) (15,699)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 2,515,884 2,624,741 2,737,131 2,855,480 2,978,246 3,105,163 3,243,070 3,381,636
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,733,004) (1,802,862) (1,880,388) (1,960,601) (2,048,084) (2,144,407) (2,234,136) (2,343,100)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,733,004) (1,802,862) (1,880,388) (1,960,601) (2,048,084) (2,144,407) (2,234,136) (2,343,100)
Beginning Cash Balance 3,845,843 4,254,677 4,603,141 5,055,721 5,469,149 6,027,296 6,700,633 6,934,603
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 408,835 348,464 452,580 413,427 558,147 673,337 233,970 845,503
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 4,254,677 4,603,141 5,055,721 5,469,149 6,027,296 6,700,633 6,934,603 7,780,106
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 6: Joint operate - Revenue is lower by 2.0%, Overhead cost is higher by 2.0%(4 of 4)
196
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2039 2040
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 4,555,781 4,758,713
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax Paid (1,020,579) (1,076,229)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 11,725 12,317
Change in AR (16,485) (17,314)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 3,530,441 3,677,488
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (569,179) (87,292)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (569,179) (87,292)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,449,391) (2,582,948)
Cash contribution at the end of concession (4,556,620)
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,449,391) (7,139,568)
Beginning Cash Balance 7,780,106 8,291,977
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 511,871 (3,549,373)
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 8,291,977 4,742,604
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (1 of 4)
197
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 1,124,463 1,270,618 1,322,553 1,356,241 1,436,764 1,595,742 1,766,750 1,927,031
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (261,535) (282,095) (280,887) (280,688) (298,939) (333,294) (370,930) (405,583)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP (1,773) 2,750 4,369 6,189 10,323 15,856 17,539 18,048
Change in AR (8,233) (15,723) (10,027) (9,199) (9,708) (11,923) (13,176) (12,475)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items 66,276 - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 919,198 975,550 1,036,009 1,072,542 1,138,439 1,266,381 1,400,183 1,527,021
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (438,689) (372,050) (320,211) (514,622) (717,454) (799,906) (890,233) (973,399)
Cash contribution at the end of concession (303,240)
Total Cash Flow from Financing (438,689) (372,050) (320,211) (514,622) (1,020,695) (799,906) (890,233) (973,399)
Beginning Cash Balance 468,667 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 315,618 420,888 548,783
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 61,475 - - - (214,524) 105,270 127,896 260,827
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 315,618 420,888 548,783 809,610
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (2 of 4)
198
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 2,056,046 2,244,407 2,451,003 2,643,052 2,844,543 3,037,341 3,187,667 3,446,092
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (435,513) (479,665) (526,603) (584,265) (632,465) (683,140) (716,335) (780,241)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 18,759 15,732 9,993 9,540 10,014 9,797 8,286 12,574
Change in AR (10,327) (14,583) (15,938) (14,981) (15,722) (15,186) (12,267) (19,991)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,628,965 1,765,892 1,918,456 2,053,346 2,206,370 2,348,812 2,467,351 2,658,434
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,045,231) (1,151,196) (1,263,846) (1,402,237) (1,517,916) (1,639,535) (1,719,203) (1,872,577)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,045,231) (1,151,196) (1,263,846) (1,402,237) (1,517,916) (1,639,535) (1,719,203) (1,872,577)
Beginning Cash Balance 809,610 1,287,948 1,652,371 1,803,445 1,834,160 2,123,692 2,716,680 3,093,326
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 478,339 364,422 151,075 30,715 289,532 592,988 376,647 616,248
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 1,287,948 1,652,371 1,803,445 1,834,160 2,123,692 2,716,680 3,093,326 3,709,574
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (3 of 4)
199
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 3,724,382 3,887,637 4,058,964 4,238,786 4,427,546 4,625,712 4,833,777 5,052,259
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (842,875) (878,266) (917,186) (957,577) (1,001,369) (1,049,234) (1,094,763) (1,148,740)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 13,475 9,193 9,655 10,141 10,652 11,191 11,757 12,353
Change in AR (21,485) (13,454) (14,125) (14,832) (15,575) (16,358) (17,182) (18,048)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 2,873,496 3,005,110 3,137,308 3,276,517 3,421,254 3,571,310 3,733,589 3,897,824
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,022,900) (2,107,838) (2,201,246) (2,298,186) (2,403,285) (2,518,162) (2,627,431) (2,756,977)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,022,900) (2,107,838) (2,201,246) (2,298,186) (2,403,285) (2,518,162) (2,627,431) (2,756,977)
Beginning Cash Balance 3,709,574 4,186,124 4,609,981 5,141,880 5,638,760 6,284,714 7,050,445 7,381,638
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 476,551 423,856 531,899 496,880 645,955 765,730 331,194 947,814
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 4,186,124 4,609,981 5,141,880 5,638,760 6,284,714 7,050,445 7,381,638 8,329,452
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 7: Self operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (4 of 4)
200
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2039 2040
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 5,281,707 5,522,695
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax Paid (1,202,061) (1,267,224)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 12,981 13,641
Change in AR (18,961) (19,922)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 4,073,666 4,249,191
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (569,179) (87,292)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (569,179) (87,292)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,884,946) (3,041,338)
Cash contribution at the end of concession -
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,884,946) (3,041,338)
Beginning Cash Balance 8,329,452 8,948,992
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 619,540 1,120,561
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 8,948,992 10,069,553
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (1 of 4)
201
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 1,124,463 1,270,618 1,322,553 1,356,241 1,436,764 1,590,644 1,761,481 1,921,587
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (261,535) (282,095) (280,887) (280,688) (298,939) (332,020) (369,613) (404,222)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP (1,773) 2,750 4,369 6,189 10,323 16,234 17,631 18,138
Change in AR (8,233) (15,723) (10,027) (9,199) (9,708) (11,923) (13,176) (12,475)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items 66,276 - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 919,198 975,550 1,036,009 1,072,542 1,138,439 1,262,934 1,396,323 1,523,028
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (419,034) (603,500) (715,797) (557,920) (332,268) (361,205) (382,054) (292,795)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (438,689) (372,050) (320,211) (514,622) (717,454) (796,847) (887,071) (970,133)
Cash contribution at the end of concession -
Total Cash Flow from Financing (438,689) (372,050) (320,211) (514,622) (717,454) (796,847) (887,071) (970,133)
Beginning Cash Balance 468,667 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 618,858 723,740 850,938
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 61,475 - - - 88,716 104,882 127,197 260,100
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 530,142 530,142 530,142 530,142 618,858 723,740 850,938 1,111,038
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (2 of 4)
202
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 2,050,420 2,238,594 2,444,996 2,636,845 2,838,129 3,030,713 3,180,818 3,439,014
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (434,107) (478,212) (525,101) (582,713) (630,862) (681,483) (714,622) (778,471)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 18,855 15,794 10,017 9,564 10,039 9,823 8,313 12,602
Change in AR (10,327) (14,583) (15,938) (14,981) (15,722) (15,186) (12,267) (19,991)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 1,624,842 1,761,593 1,913,974 2,048,715 2,201,585 2,343,868 2,462,242 2,653,154
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (105,395) (250,273) (503,535) (620,394) (398,922) (116,290) (371,502) (169,609)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (1,041,856) (1,147,708) (1,260,242) (1,398,512) (1,514,068) (1,635,558) (1,715,094) (1,868,331)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (1,041,856) (1,147,708) (1,260,242) (1,398,512) (1,514,068) (1,635,558) (1,715,094) (1,868,331)
Beginning Cash Balance 1,111,038 1,588,628 1,952,240 2,102,438 2,132,246 2,420,841 3,012,861 3,388,508
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 477,590 363,612 150,198 29,808 288,595 592,020 375,647 615,214
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 1,588,628 1,952,240 2,102,438 2,132,246 2,420,841 3,012,861 3,388,508 4,003,722
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (3 of 4)
203
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 3,717,069 3,880,080 4,051,155 4,230,717 4,419,208 4,617,096 4,824,873 5,043,059
Finance Income - - - - - - - -
Finance Expenses - - - - - - - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - - - - - - - -
Income Tax Paid (841,047) (876,377) (915,234) (955,560) (999,284) (1,047,080) (1,092,537) (1,146,440)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 13,504 9,223 9,686 10,173 10,685 11,225 11,792 12,390
Change in AR (21,485) (13,454) (14,125) (14,832) (15,575) (16,358) (17,182) (18,048)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - - - - - - - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 2,868,041 2,999,472 3,131,482 3,270,498 3,415,034 3,564,883 3,726,947 3,890,960
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (374,046) (473,415) (404,163) (481,452) (372,015) (287,418) (774,964) (193,033)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,018,512) (2,103,304) (2,196,561) (2,293,344) (2,398,282) (2,512,992) (2,622,089) (2,751,457)
Cash contribution at the end of concession
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,018,512) (2,103,304) (2,196,561) (2,293,344) (2,398,282) (2,512,992) (2,622,089) (2,751,457)
Beginning Cash Balance 4,003,722 4,479,205 4,901,958 5,432,716 5,928,418 6,573,155 7,337,627 7,667,521
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 475,483 422,753 530,758 495,702 644,737 764,472 329,894 946,470
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 4,479,205 4,901,958 5,432,716 5,928,418 6,573,155 7,337,627 7,667,521 8,613,991
Contents
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PwC
22 December 2015Strictly private and confidential
Projected cash flow statement of TPSScenario 8: Joint operate - Long term throughput of 2.5 million TEUs (4 of 4)
204
Project Portiga
3.7 Cash flow projection of TPS
Cash flow IDR in million 2039 2040
Cash Flow from Operations
EBITDA 5,272,200 5,512,871
Finance Income - -
Finance Expenses - -
Foreign Exchange Gain/(Loss) - -
Income Tax Paid (1,199,684) (1,264,768)
Change in Working Capital
Change in AP 13,019 13,681
Change in AR (18,961) (19,922)
Change in Other Balance Sheet Items - -
Total Cash Flow from Operations 4,066,574 4,241,862
Cash Flow from Investments
Capital expenditures (569,179) (87,292)
Total Cash Flow from Investments (569,179) (87,292)
Cash Flow from Financing
Capital/Equity Contribution
Dividends (2,879,242) (3,035,444)
Cash contribution at the end of concession (5,072,122)
Total Cash Flow from Financing (2,879,242) (8,107,566)
Beginning Cash Balance 8,613,991 9,232,143
Increase / (Decrease) in Cash 618,152 (3,952,996)
Effect of Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Ending Cash Balance 9,232,143 5,279,147
Contents
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PwC CF is owned by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a member firm of the PricewaterhouseCoopers Network,
and is a member of FINRA and SIPC. PwC CF is not engaged in the practice of public accountancy. 205
August 2011
© 2015 PT PricewaterhouseCoopers Indonesia Advisory. All rights reserved. In this document, “ PwC” refers to PT PricewaterhouseCoopers Indonesia Advisory which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity.
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