Population history and agricultural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Prof. dr. Ewout Frankema, Rural and Environmental History, Wageningen University SKOV Seminar Population explosion in Sub-Saharan Africa: bloom or doom for agriculture?

Agenda

1. From historical statistics to 21st century projections

2. Historical drivers of African population dynamics

3. From low to high-density continent: threats & opportunities for agriculture.

Sharp fall in mortality rates (blue line), slow fertility decline response (pink line)

Summing up

• Very low densities up to 1950.

• A population explosion; break away from low-level equilibrium starting in the colonial era (c. 1900-1930).

• If projections are right: Africa will have ca. 40% of world population by 2100; turning from a low into a high-density continent.

• This transition is historically unprecedented because of a) the rate of demographic growth

b) drivers of mortality decline and the belated fertility response

Constraints to population growth before 1900?

• Environmental conditions supporting extensive agriculture and high population mobility – Climate: dry and high rainfall variation

– Light soils

– Few navigable waterways

– Limitations to animal draft power/mixed husbandry

• Tropical diseases – High child mortality rates

– Lower fertility rates

• Warfare

Diamond’s thesis

• The main domesticated food crops (rice, wheat, maize) were adopted relatively late in Africa

• Diffusion of domesticated animals and food crops hampered by vertical continental axis

Range: 0 - 5000mm p.a. Range: 400 - 1500mm p.a.

Papaioannou and Frankema 2016

Tropical Africa is dryer than tropical Asia; rainfall also less predictable

Scattered high-density areas

Main cause of mortality fall

• Rapid progress in the struggle against tropical diseases (e.g. malaria) and other endemic diseases (e.g. smallpox).

• Maternal care, child care

• Hygiene (clean drinking water, soap, sewage)

• NOT: transitions in agriculture leading to ‘green revolution’ rates of productivity growth.

Missionary nurse school in British Cameroon, 1956

Colonial agricultural policies

• Focus on export crops; little coordinated investment in irrigation, fertilization, new varieties of food crops; shortages are relieved with food aid (crisis management).

In Europe and Asia population growth went hand in hand with agricultural intensification....

...in Sub-Saharan Africa with extensive growth.

Source: FAOSTAT

Gross per capita food production (1961 =100)

Will intensification be the next step?

• Yes, but without ‘silver bullet’ innovations; lots of tailor-made micro-innovations and localized applications

• Von Thünen in Africa: urbanization, infrastructural development and... ICT

• Linkages with industrial sector will

remain (much?) weaker than in Asia

• Underemployment and emigration

Keeping people in the countryside will not be the solution!

Urbanization:

1. Lowers fertility rates

2. Enhances labour specialization

3. Concentrates consumer demand

4. Creates scale economies in welfare infrastructure

5. Enhances trade networks > new jobs

Key historical lesson: smart trade and infant industry protection help a lot!

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Source: Clark 2002

Share of British labour force in agriculture, 1500-1914

Conclusion

• Pessimists/Malthusians

o Too much, too fast!

o Fragile states and corrupt governments cannot handle this transition

o Climate change and water scarcity are already a big problem for agriculture

o Population boom will enhance mass unemployment, instability, mass emigration

o Poverty rates will rise again

• Optimists/Boserupians

o Population growth is a consequence of radical welfare improvements

o Low densities that have historically hampered economic development are rapidly disappearing

o Concentration of population will give great impulse to agricultural productivity growth, trade and some industrialisation

o Africa will dominate the 22st century