population growth in ethiopia: causes...
TRANSCRIPT
POPULATIONGROWTHINETHIOPIA:CAUSES,IMPACTSANDWIDERAREASOFINFLUENCE
LouiseCarverPopula;onandSustainabilityNetwork
Outlineforthisevening:
1. Popula1onissuesinEthiopia;
2. Popula1onpolicyinhistoricalcontext
3. Howcanweapproachtheissuetoday?
Popula;oninEthiopia:
• Rateofgrowth:2.5%/year
• UNprojec1ons• Veryyoungagestructure
• Urbaniza1onrateisdoublena1onalgrowthrates
Birthandcontracep;onrates:
• Fer1lityis5.1childrenperwoman• Under10%ofwomenusemoderncontracep1on
• Unmetneedforcontracep1onisdefinedas:
“Awomanwhowouldliketodelayorpreventhernextpregnancyandisnotusingmoderncontracep;on”
Overathirdofmarriedwomenhavean“unmetneed”forcontracep1oninEthiopia
Impactsofpopula;ongrowthonEthiopiandevelopmentindicators:
• Maternalhealth(oneinfivedeathsforwomenisduetopregnancyrelatedcauses)
• Educa1on(primaryschoolenrolmentisloweramongstwomenwithlargefamilies)
• Hinderseconomicgrowth
• Environmentaldegrada1on
Impactsofhighpopula;ongrowthondevelopmentefforts:
• HinderAXainmentoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGS)1. Eradicateextremepovertyandhunger
2. Achieveuniversalprimaryeduca1on3. Promotegenderequalityandempowerwomen
4. Reducechildmortality
5. Improvematernalhealth
6. CombatHIV/AIDS,malariaandotherdiseases
7. Ensureenvironmentalsustainability8. Developaglobalpartnershipfordevelopment
“TheMDGsaredifficult or impossible to achievewith thecurrentlevelsofpopula;ongrowthintheleastdevelopedcountriesorregions”APPGReport,ReturnofthePopula;onGrowthFactor
1. Eradicateextremepovertyandhunger:
Reduc1onofpercentofpopula1onlivinginpovertynotrepresentedinnumberslivinginpoverty:
Source:Popula1onandSustainabilityNetworkfor2009UpdateforUKAPPGPopula1on,Reproduc1veHealthandDevelopmentReport.ReturnofthePopula2onGrowthFactor,ItsImpactontheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.2009
2.Achieveuniversalprimaryeduca1on:
Primaryschoolcomple1on
rates2006‐2007
PrimarySchoolComple1onRate
Source:WorldBankDatain2009UpdateforUKAPPGPopula1on,Reproduc1veHealthandDevelopmentReport.ReturnofthePopula2onGrowthFactor,ItsImpactontheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.2009
Totalfer1lityrates2006
Source:WorldBankDatain2009UpdateforUKAPPGPopula1on,Reproduc1veHealthandDevelopmentReport.ReturnofthePopula2onGrowthFactor,ItsImpactontheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.2009
Popula;onandreproduc;vehealthpoliciesinEthiopia:
• Ratesoffer1litydecline– Datashowsthatfer1lityhasdeclinedfrom6.4birthsperwomanin1995to5.4birthsperwomanin2005
• Governmentcommitmenttofamilyplanningprograms?– S1llverylow
• Abor1onlaw(2005)oneofthemostprogressiveinAfrica
Popula;onandEnvironment:Malthusianworriesinthe21stCentury
• Debatearoundtherela1onshipbecauseitisdifficulttoachieveconsensusinageneralizedway…
• Rela1onshipisbeXerobservedonacasebycasebasis,illustratedinEthiopia
Popula1onGrowthandEnvironmentalconcerns‐Ethiopia
Ethiopia’senvironmentalmakeup: Desertintheeast Rainforestinthewest Highal1tudevegeta1onin
thecentral,southeasternandnorthernhighlands
Humandependencyonenvironmentishigh
Popula1ongrowthof2.7%/yearhasacceleratedlanddegrada1on
“Therearenojokesinwifeandland”(proverbusedbyfarmersinnorthernEthiopia..)
Landdegrada1oniscausedbythefollowing:– Popula1ongrowth– Unsustainablelanduse– Ambiguouslandownershippolicies…
Increasingfamilysize(decreasedlandholdings)+unsustainableprac1ces=produc1vity
Popula1onandtheEthiopianenvironment…
• Examplesofenvironmentalconcerns– Deser1fica1on– Watershortages
– Landdegrada1on– Soilerosion
• Deforesta1on– Es1matedtobeat150,000‐200,000hectaresannuallywhichifcon1nuesatthisratecoulddenudecountryinasliXleas20years
Distribu1onofpopula1ons• Landpercapitaseemsamplebut
whatisimportantisdensity:
• Popula1onsorganizethemselvesaccordingtoenvironmentalcondi1ons
• Mostoflowlandsarenotsuitableforhabita1onduetomalariaandwatershortages
• Majorityofpopula1on(80%)and70%oflivestockliveinecologicallyfragilehighlands
• Suchhighlandscons1tuteonly45%ofavailablelandarea
FoodInsecurity
1.Inefficientfarming
techniquesrequirelargeareasofland
2.Lowuseofsoilconserva;ontechniques
3.Increasingfamilysizeandsoilerosion
meanslessarableland
4.Farmershavetosharesamepieceoflandexer;ngevenmorepressure
Mul1‐sectorapproach:pioneeredinEthiopia
• Popula;on‐Health‐EnvironmentFrameworkexamplesfromEthiopia
• Wheredothesethreemeet?:
– Popula;on‐Environment(popula1onpressure,migra1on,overexploita1onofland)
– Environment‐Health(foodandwatersecurity,diseasesandpests)
– Health‐Popula;on(sexualandreproduc1vehealththroughfamilyplanning,infantandmaternalhealth)
Beforetreeswerere‐plantedinthevillagewherethesewomenlivetheywerewalkingupto25kmadaytocollectwood.
WichiProvenceineasternEthiopia,casestudy:
Projecthasthreecentralac1vi1es:Educatelocalinhabitantsonsustainablelanduseprac;ces
Rehabilitateareasthroughreforesta;onprograms
Introducefamilyplanningservices
GuidingPrinciple:
Individualscannotexerciseadequatestewardshipovernaturalresourcesunlesstheirbasicneedsforhealth,nutri;onandeconomicwell‐beingareaddressed.
Preliminaryresultsshowsuccess:
Contracep;veprevalencethatwasini;allyverylownowstandsataround30%use.Whichisthree;mesthena;onalaverage.
ClimateChange‐poorcountrieswillbehitearliestandhardest:
• Mostvulnerabletoimpacts
• Havelesscapacitytoadapt
• Rapidpopula1ongrowthunderscoresboth
ClimateChangeaddsanextradimensiontopop‐environmentmodel
• Rapidpopula1ongrowthcanmakeadapta1ontothechangesandimpactsmuchharder
Ethiopia’sNa1onalAdapta1onProgramofAc1on(NAPA)
• SubmiXedtotheUNFCCCbyEthiopianGovernmentin2007
• Acknowledgesthatpopula1onpressureisoneofkeycausesofclimatechangevulnerabilityasitimpactson:
Lossofnaturalhabitat
SoilDegrada;on/Overfarming
Deser;fica;on
Deforesta;on
Doespopula;ongrowthcauseclimatechange?Skewedglobalratesofconsump;onshowotherwise:
• Forevery1,000peopleinEthiopia,thereareonlytwomotorizedvehicles(comparedto787motorizedvehiclesper1,000Americans)(Popula1onAc1onInterna1onal)
• TheaverageAmericanemitsabouttwohundred1mesmorecarbondioxidethantheaverageEthiopian.”
• Itwillhoweverbeanimportantfactorinthefutureasdevelopingeconomiesindustrialise.
GlobalPopula1onGrowthToday:Globalpopula1ongrowthshownbetweenLessDevelopedand
moreDevelopedregions1750–2150.
Source:UnitedNa1onsWorldPopula1onProspects,The1998RevisioninUKAPPGPopula1on,Reproduc1veHealthandDevelopmentReport.ReturnofthePopula2onGrowthFactor,ItsImpactontheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.2007
Driversofpopula1onincrease
• Decreasedmortality
• Highfer1lity(lagbehindmortality)
• Momentumfrompreviousgenera1ons
ThemissingMillenniumDevelopmentGoal?
• Introduc1onoftheaddi1onalMDGin2006:
“Toprovideuniversalaccesstoreproduc;vehealthby2015andreducetheunmetneedforfamilyplanning”
Humannumbersvs.humanrights• Popula1onprogramsincontext– Historyoffamilyplanning(popula1oncontrolpolicy)
• Interna1onalConferenceonPopula1onandDevelopment(ICPD),Cairo1994
• Newparadigmbuiltaroundhumanrights;
Howcanweapproachpopula;onmaferstoday?
• Improvingeconomicandeduca1onalopportuni1esforwomenandgirlsandreducinginfantmortalityrates.
• Providinguniversalaccesstohighquality,voluntaryfamilyplanningservices– Addressingtoday’s“unmetneed”forcontracep1veservices(200millionwomenworldwide)
ThedealforFamilyPlanning..
Globallevelsofinvestmentatanall1melow,declinedby30%inrealtermssincethemid1990s.
Reasonsfordisinvestmentinfamilyplanning:
• Assump1onsaboutfer1litydecline
• Donorfa1gueandalterna1veneedsforthesamemoney(HIV/AIDS)
• Resistancefromopposedgroups
Widerbenefitsoffamilyplanningaspartofsexualandreproduc;vehealthservices:
• Maternalandinfanthealth– 76millionunintendedpregnanciesinthedevelopingworldin2003resultedin184,000pregnancyrelateddeathsand1.8millioninfantdeaths.
• Expandedopportuni1esforwomen’seduca1on,employmentandsocialpar1cipa1on
• Loweringpopula1onpressure
WIN/WINopportunityforfamilyplanning• Rela1velyeasytoimplement
• Rela1velyinexpensive(uniqueinterven1oninthebreadthofbenefitsitbrings)
• Demandforitalreadyexistsandisgrowing
• Canbolstercapacitytocopewithenvironmentalchangesathouseholdandna1onallevelthrougheasingpopula1onpressure
Conclusion
• Reachingpopula1onstabiliza1ononitsownwouldnotbethesilverbulletfordevelopmentchallenges,environmentalsustainabilityorclimatechange…
BUT
• Itwouldmakeac1onmuchmorefeasible.
Whatthefutureholds..
• Buildonlessonslearned,theparadigmsuppor1ngsexualandreproduc1vehealthrightsiss1llper1nenttodayandforthefuture
• EthiopiaandotherLeastDevelopedCountriesneedboldandprogressivepoliciesdevelopedwithhumanrightsasacentralpillar
• Necessarypoli1calwill,andinterna1onalsupporttoimplementpoliciesthathavelargelybeenignored