population growth and demography

Population Growth and Demography

Link to syllabus

Link to WDI

Chapter 4 of Richards and Waterbury

http://www-personal.umd.umich.edu/~mtwomey/econhelp/344files/344Syllabus.docx

http://0-devdata.worldbank.org.wizard.umd.umich.edu/dataonline/

http://0-devdata.worldbank.org.wizard.umd.umich.edu/dataonline/

Table 4.1 p. 73 (R&W). Demographic Indicators. 1970-2003

Population Growth in MENA

Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking Employment

Population Growth Rates: MENA and other RegionsPopulation Growth Rates, Regional Averages.

%/yr.

0

1

2

3

4

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Middle East & NorthAfricaHigh income: OECD

East Asia & Pacific

Latin America &CaribbeanSouth Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

MENA had one of highest rates; it has been declining since 1990

Population Growth: countries

Population Growth Rates (%/yr)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.

Population growth, non GCC

Population Growth Rates Non-GCC (%/yr)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

AlgeriaEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqJordanLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.

Figure 6-2 (Lynn text). Demographic Transition. Page 144

Source: Lynn, Economic Development

Link to MENA_PopGrowth.xls

Source: Can’t find the title, but the page numbers were: 19, 40

Note: the change in pop. growth is bigger than the change in birth ratesThere will be a growth in the working-age population, a generation later.

Algeria

1960

1966

1972

1978

1984

1990

1996

2002

2008

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Birth rate, crude (per 100 people)Death rate, crude (per 100 people)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Population growth (annual %)

Egypt

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0


Lebanon

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0


Yemen

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0


Death Rates RegionsDeath Rates/1000, Regional Averages

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


East Asia & Pacific


Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: WDI data

Death Rates: CountriesDeath Rates/1000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


Source: WDI data

Birth Rates: Regional AveragesBirth Rates, Regional Averages

10

100

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


East Asia & Pacific


Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: WDI data

BirthRates/1000Birth Rates/1000, 1960-2004

10

100

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


Fertility Rates: WDI

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0AlgeriaBahrainEgyptIranIraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyriaTunisiaTurkeyU.A.E.

Yemen

Israel

El-Tigani’s data on fertility rates for Egypt and Tunisia

Theories on FertilityFactors increasing birth rate: Mother: Better health of mother. Longer life. Better health care. Demand: Assumption would be that with higher income, more kids – Explained away by Becker as demand for quality.Factors decreasing birth rate: Mother: age at marriage, more equal divorce laws Demand: --Higher opportunity cost of mother’s time – education; --Higher cost of education and medical care for children. (Becker said demand for higher quality children) --Decreased need for farm work. --Existence of government programs: Social Security and health --Family planning programs, including and especially the availability of contraceptives (and abortion in some countries). --Changing social norms about desirability of large family, male/female children, and use of contraceptives.

Larry Summers on Education of Young Women

In 1992, Larry Summers, then chief economist of the World Bank [later US Secretary of Treasury, and President of Harvard], argued that giving 100 girls one additional year of primary education would prevent 60 infant deaths and 3 maternal deaths, while averting some 500 births. This would have cost $30,000 for 100 girls, thus the social benefits alone of increased education of girls is more than sufficient to cover its costs—even before considering the added earnings power of this education.

(Stephen C. Smith Case Studies in Economic Development)

Figure 4.4 p. 79 (R&W). Changes in Fertility: Morocco

Figure 4.5 p. 79 (R&W) Total Fertility and Education: Morocco, Palestine and Egypt

Standard story: higher education, lower fertility.

Government Policy Orientations

Table 4.3 p. 82 (R&W). Policy on Fertility Level, MENA Countries.

Arab government policies on fertility and access to contraceptives

Source: Faour (1989)

Schematic Illustration of the “Proximate” Causes of the Decline in Egyptian Fertility

Source: Robinson and El-Zanaty (2006) The Demographic Revolution in Modern Egypt

Suggests that themost important causeof the decline in fertility is the use ofcontraceptive methods

Contraceptive Use by Region:% of Women 15-49 Years Old

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Middle East & North Africa (all income levels)

East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)

Latin America & Car-ibbean (all income lev-els)South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)

High income: OECD

Source: WDIThe percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception

10

100Contraceptive Prevalence (% Women 15-49)

AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.

Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception. It is usually measured for married women ages 15-49 only. (Source: WDI)

Contraceptive Use in Tunisia and Turkey

Decomposition of Change in Fertility Rate p. 51

Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the MENA page 51

Regression Results

Source: Faour (1989)

The 1994 Cairo Population Conference

• Vatican and certain Muslim countries agreed on opposing the position in favor of women’s rights, family planning, and abortion, as well as neo-Malthusian alarms.

• Compromise was to emphasize women’s status inside the family, downplay Malthus, while separating abortion from family planning.

Source: Bowen, “Abortion, Islam, and the 1994 Cairo Population Conference,” IJMES May, 1997

EgyptDemog.pdf

Source: “Egypt 1995: Results From the Demographic and Health Survey,” Studies in Family Planning Vol. 28#3, 1997

The next few slides come from the following source.

http://www-personal.umd.umich.edu/~mtwomey/econhelp/344files/EgyptDemog.pdf

Fertility differentials


Egypt

Contraceptive prevalence


Egypt

Contraceptive use among married women


Egypt

Contraceptive Prevalence, by age and number of living children


Egypt

Desire to stop childbearing


Egypt

Percentage Distribution of contraceptive users, by source of supply

Egypt:

Demographic Data for Jordan

Jordan: Fertility Differentials

Jordan: Contraceptive Use Differentials

Jordan: Contraceptive prevalence, by age and number of children

Distribution of Modern Methods, by source of supply

Jordan

Demographic Data for Syria

Syria: Fertility by residence and education

Demographic Data on Lebanon

Studies in Family Planning, June 2001

Lebanon: Fertility Trends

Source: Studies in Family Planning, June 2001

Lebanon: Fertility Differentials


Lebanon: Current Contraceptive Use


Lebanon: Sources of Supply for Modern Contraceptives


Lebanon: Knowledge of Contraceptive Methods


Detailed data on Demographic Variable for Turkey

Fix this

http://www-personal.umd.umich.edu/~mtwomey/econhelp/344files/TurkeyDemog.pdf

Turkey Fertility differentials, 1992

Turkey: Fertility Differentials, 1992

Turkey Contraceptive prevalence differentials

Turkey

Turkey Knowledge and use of contraceptives

Turkey

Family Planning in Iran

World Bank on Iranian Family Planning

Source: World Bank Unlocking the Employment Potential of the MENA, p. 52

Population policy in Iran

Studies in Family Planning, March 2000. First author is an anthropologistin Montreal; second is Adviser to Ministry of Public Health in Tehran

The New York Times July 27, 2010

Iran’s Leader Introduces Plan to Encourage Population Growth by Paying Families

TEHRAN (AP) — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inaugurated a new policy on Tuesday to encourage population growth, dismissing decades of internationally acclaimed family planning in Iran as ungodly and a Western import.

The new government effort will pay families for every new child and deposit money into the newborns’ bank accounts until they reach 18, Mr. Ahmadinejad said. The program effectively rolled back years of efforts to strengthen the economy by reducing population growth.

Those who raise the idea of family planning “are thinking in the realm of the secular world,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said during a ceremony at which he presented the new policy. The plan is part of his previously stated desire to increase Iran’s population, estimated at more than 70 million. He has previously said Iran could support as many as 150 million people.

The program is expected to be especially attractive to lower-incomepeople, who formed the backbone of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s support in thepresidential elections in 2005 and 2009.

Throughout his tenure, the president has promoted populist policies inIran, where 10 million people are estimated to live below the poverty line.

It is unclear, however, where the money would come from to pay for thenew incentives because the government is already having trouble payingfor basic public works projects.

Starting in the early 1970s, Iran waged a successful family planningcampaign across the country. It included banners in public health carecenters that said, “Two children are enough.”

The effort was reversed after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, only to bebrought back 10 years later after the population expanded rapidly andthe economy faltered.

Throughout the 1990s, Iran reduced population growth by encouraging menand women to use free or inexpensive contraceptives, as well as bypromoting vasectomies. The government brought down the population growthrate to 1.6 percent from a high in 1986 of 3.9 percent.

Mr. Ahmadinejad caused an outcry after he was elected in 2005, when hesaid two children per family were not enough and urged Iranians to havemore.

Iranian roadside billboards promote large familiesThe Telegraph (U.K. Dec. 9, 2013)

Iranian motorists are experiencing the novelty of being advised to have large families as part of a state-backed programme aimed at replacing birth control policies with a baby boom

Iran: Age Distribution, 1986-2020

Source: chapter by Salehi-Isfahani, in Katouzian and Shahidi (eds.) Iran in the 21st Century

Family Planning Programs in Egypt

Egypt: Growth of Health Infrastructure 1940-1995


Donor Assistance to the Egyptian Family Program


Egypt: Family Planning Poster

Source: Kamran Asdar Ali (1997)

Another poster

Source: Kamran Asdar Ali (1997)

Egypt’s Birthrate Rises as Population Control

Policies VanishEgyptian women talked with a volunteer at a health clinic in Cairo about contraceptive options

.President Mohamed Morsi remains silent about the future of the family planning programs put in place by the government of former President Hosni Mubarak, as the country's birthrate surges to a 20-year high.

Officials have dropped the awareness campaigns of the past, in an early indication of how the Islamist leadership is approaching social policy in the most populous Arab state.

New York Times, May 2, 2013

Salehi-Isfahani on Fertility in Iran

Source: D. Salehi-Isfahani “Familty Planning and Rural Fertility Decline In Iran: A Study in Program Evaluation”

Decline in Fertility: Iran & Turkey

Source: D. Salehi-Isfahani “Familty Planning and Rural Fertility Decline In Iran: A Study in Program Evaluation”

Total Fertility Rates in LDCs p. 48

Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking the Employment Potential in the MENA page 48

Fertility: Regional Aggregates (WDI)

Fertility Rate, Regional Averages. Births/woman

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


East Asia & Pacific


Sub-Saharan Africa

Fertility Rates: Countries

Fertility Rate, Births/Woman

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


Source: WDI data

Contraceptive prevalence rates by program effort and socio-economic setting

Source: Faour (1989) p. 269

Faour’s comment on population education (p. 260)

Arab countries/Islam and abortion

Source: Faour (1989) p. 260

Arab countries and sterilization

Non-Nationals as Share of Labor Force

Source: World Bank (2004) Unlocking Employment

Link to Individual Country Contraception data

Source: WDI, listed in

http://www-personal.umd.umich.edu/~mtwomey/econhelp/344files/R-o-WFert.xls

http://www-personal.umd.umich.edu/~mtwomey/econhelp/344files/R-o-WFert.xls

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

10

100Contraceptive Prevalence (% Women 15-49)

East Asia & Pacific (all income levels)

High income: OECD

Latin America & Caribbean (all income levels)


South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)

Contraceptive prevalence rate is the percentage of women who are practicing, or whose sexual partners are practicing, any form of contraception. It is usually measured for married women ages 15-49 only.

Infant Mortality, by Regions

1960

1968

1976

1984

1992

2000

2008

1

10

100

1,000


East Asia & Pa-cific (developing only)


OECD members

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa (all income lev-els)

1960

1971

1982

1993

2004

020406080

100120140160180 Middle East &

North Africa (all income levels)

East Asia & Pa-cific (developing only)


OECD members

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa (all income levels)

(semi-log graph)

Source: WDI

Infant Mortality

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300 AlgeriaBahrainEgypt, Arab Rep.Iran, Islamic Rep.IraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanQatarSaudi ArabiaSyrian Arab RepublicTunisiaTurkeyUnited Arab EmiratesWest Bank and GazaYemen, Rep.

Source: WDI

population growth and demography

Documents

mena population growth

population growth ratestable

introduction population

mena source

birth rates

death rate

fertility rate

source wdi