population decline & ageing: the need to recycle human and social capital prof. dr. nol reverda,...

nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd

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Population Decline & Ageing:The Need to Recycle

Human and Social Capital

Prof. Dr. Nol Reverda, Lector Zuyd University

Scientific Director NEIMED


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Contents

• Demographic change in Europe

• From green to grey: a society in transition and transformation

• The recycling thesis

• Focus on ageing and social capital, less on vulnerability and availability of social/health services

nol reverda - CESRT/NEIMED/Hogeschool Zuyd 3

Global Demographic Statistics

Year World Asia Africa Europe Latin America

Northern America Oceania

2000 6,115 3,698 (60.5%)

819 (13.4%)

727 (11.9%)

521 (8.5%)

319 (5.2%)

31 (0.5%)

2010 6,909 4,167 (60.3%)

1,033 (15.0%)

733 (10.6%)

589 (8.5%)

352 (5.1%)

36 (0.5%)

2030 8,309 4,917 (59.2%)

1,524 (18.3%)

723 (8.7%)

690 (8.3%)

410 (4.9%)

45 (0.5%)

2050 9,150 5,231 (57.2%)

1,998 (21.8%)

691 (7.6%)

729 (8.0%)

448 (4.9%)

51 (0.6%)

Nol Reverda/CESRT/ NEIMED

Global Developments

• World growth population from 6 billion in 2000 to over 9 billion in 2050

• European region is shrinking from 727 million in 2000 to 691 million in 2050

• Proportional share of two most affluent regions (USA + Europe) reduced from 17 to 12%

• Unpredictable future migration streams• Need for immigration policy in EU


Ageing: 60+ per Global Region2000 and 2050


Global Developments

• 600 million 60+ in 2000 and in 2050 2 billion (> triple)

• In 2050 most 60+ in Europe (33% population)• Potential support rate (PSR - number of 15-64

related to 65+):– in 1950: 12-1– in 2000: 9-1– in 2050: 4-1

The EU: A Shrinking and Ageing Region

2005 0-14 15-64 65+

EU-25 459.3 73.4 308.9 77


2050 0-14 15-64 65+

EU-25 449 66.5 253.4 129.1

Source: European Commission (2007)


The EU Region• Ageing is the result of successful policies in social stability,

economic growth and medical progress. • Ageing caused by:– Low fertility rates• 1960: 2,5 child• 1995: 1,5 child• 2030: 1,6 child

– Increased life expectancy• 1980: men 69/women 76• 2005: men 74/women 80• 2050: men 79/women 85 • growing group of people in the ages of 80 and 90


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From Green to Grey: EU Society in Transition and Transformation

• Shrinking and ageing are processes that transform the details of society

• Less people, less youngsters, more elderly• Transition in society stimulates innovative

processes in public administration, community development and the economy


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From Green to Grey: EU Society in Transition and TransformationChanging role of the European state

State/public administration

Civil society Market

Changing welfare regimes (liberal, conservative, social democratic)

Transition in roles and expectations: less government, more employment and employability, more active citizenship

Transition in responsibilities: less state, more market, more civil society

nol reverda - CESRT/NEIMED/Hogeschool Zuyd 11

From Green to Grey: EU Society in Transition and Transformation

• Transformation in detail– Living– Education– Labour market– Mobility– Health care and social services– Culture and leisure time facilities– Public administration and politics (‘grey’ power)

The Recycling Thesis: The Need to Reuse Human and Social Capital

Green society

65+

20-65

0-20

Grey society

65+

20-65

0-20

nol reverda - Neimed/CESRT/Hogeschool Zuyd 12


• Need to reuse human and social capital– Green society: much human and social capital to be

constructed in the future (ages 20-65)– Grey society: much human and social capital

constructed in the past (ages 20-65)– Taking from the physical/ecological discourses:

We cannot permit waste!

– Economic retirement is not equivalent to social retirement



• Need to activate 65+ due to scarcity of volunteers • Need to rejuvenate society by reusing human and

social capital of the elderly and retired people• Need to preserve services on culture, community,

leisure, care, education by getting elderly to take responsibilities in civil society through active citizenship

• Need to establish a databank for registering the talents and networks of retired people



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Finally

Two examples:• DART-network: Declining Ageing and Regional

Transformation. A European network of 13 regions from 11 countries: www.dart-project.eu

• Creator-network: ageing as an opportunity for regional economic development. A European network of 7 regions from 7 countries: www.creator7.eu

Thanks for your attention!!!

http://www.dart-project.eu/

http://www.creator7.eu/

population decline & ageing: the need to recycle human and social capital prof. dr. nol reverda,...

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