population data in the northern territory...population data in the northern territory 2 population...

D E P A R T M E N T O F H E A L T H A N D C O M M U N I T Y S E R V I C E S • H E A L T H G A I N S P L A N N I N G

Population Data in the Northern Territory

Ramakrishna Chondur

Steven Guthridge

P o p u l a t i o n D a t a i n t h e N o r t h e r n T e r r i t o r y

Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Mary Beneforti and Tony Barnes of the Economic and Social Policy section of the Northern Territory Treasury for their support and assistance with editing the report. The authors also thank members of the Statistical Liaison Committee within the Northern Territory Government for their review of the report. This publication is copyright. This report is a compilation of information published by Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Department of Health and Community Services (DHCS) and other available resources. The information in this report may be freely copied and distributed for non-profit purposes such as study, research, health service management and public information provided that the original source of the information is acknowledged. In all cases the ABS should also be acknowledged for the information and data used in this report. Reproduction for purposes other than those indicated above require the written permission of the Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Health and Community Services, Northern Territory. The suggested citation is: Chondur R and Guthridge S. Population data in the Northern Territory. Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2006. © Copyright Department of Health and Community Services, Northern Territory 2006. Printed by the Government Printer of the Northern Territory. ISBN 0 9775134 3 2 This report is available in electronic format on the Department of Health and Community Services’ internet site located at: http://www.nt.gov.au/health/publications.shtml #epi General enquiries about this publication should be directed to Director Health Gains Planning Department of Health and Community Services PO Box 40596 Casuarina NT 0811 Email: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


Table of contents

1 Introduction 1 2 Population composition 2 2Geography

2.1 The Australian Standard Geographical Classification 2 2.2 Mesh Blocks 3 2.3 Regions and Sub-regions of the Northern Territory 5 2.4 Health Districts 7 2.5 Health Zones 9

11Population characteristics2.6 Age 11 2.7 Sex 12 2.8 Indigenous status 13

3 ABS sources of population data 14 14Census of Population and Housing

3.1 Place of enumeration 14 3.2 Place of usual residence 15

16Estimated Resident Population3.3 Census year Estimated Resident Population 17 3.4 Intercensal Estimated Resident Population 18

19Population projections3.5 Population projections 19 3.6 Indigenous experimental population estimates and projections 20

4 Non-ABS sources of population data 22 4.1 Department of Health and Community Services population estimates 22 4.2 Productivity Commission population projections 23 4.3 Population projections for Statistical Local Areas 24 4.4 Community Government Council estimates 24 4.5 Medicare enrolment 25 4.6 School enrolment 26 4.7 Department of Health and Community Services Client Master Index 27 4.8 Community Housing and Infrastructure Survey 28 4.9 Health Zone population 28 4.10 Service population 29

References 30 Appendix 33 Selected Health Gains Planning publications 42

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List of tables Table 1 Australian Standard Geographical Classification structure and components of spatial

units, Northern Territory, 2004 .............................................................................................4 Table 2 Regions and Sub-regions, Northern Territory, 2005.............................................................5Table 3 Number of Collection Districts and Statistical Local Areas within each Health District.........7 Table 4 Health Zones, Northern Territory, 2004................................................................................9 Table 6 Age groups used in NT DHCS reports ...............................................................................12 Table 7 Usual residence variable items, 2001 Census ...................................................................16 Table 8 Steps involved in estimating Census year Estimated Resident Population........................17 Table 9 Components of 2001 Estimated Resident Population, Northern Territory

and Australia ......................................................................................................................17 Table 10 Intercensal discrepancies, 1996–2001...............................................................................19 Table 11 Assumptions for Australian Bureau of Statistics population projection series

2002–2101 .........................................................................................................................20 Table 12 Steps involved in estimating the Indigenous experimental population estimates ..............21 Table 13 Productivity Commission assumptions for population projections, 2004-2051...................23 Table 14 Assumptions for Department of Health and Ageing Population Projection Series,

2002-2022..........................................................................................................................24 Table 15 Number of full-time students by category of school and level, Northern Territory,

2005 ...................................................................................................................................27 Table A1 Census Place of Enumeration counts for Health Districts, Northern Territory, 2001 ..........33 Table A2 Census Place of Usual Residence counts for Health Districts, Northern Territory,

2001 ...................................................................................................................................33 Table A3 Estimated Resident Population by Indigenous status, Health Districts, Northern Territory,

2001-2004. .........................................................................................................................33 Table A4 Estimated Resident Population by Indigenous status, for Urban Centres/Localities,

Northern Territory, 2001. ....................................................................................................34 Table A5 Population projections for Alice Springs Health Districts, Northern Territory,

2002–2022 ........................................................................................................................36 Table A6 Population projections for Barkly Health District, Northern Territory, 2002–2022 ..............37 Table A7 Population projections for Katherine and East Arnhem Health Districts,

Northern Territory, 2002–2022 ..........................................................................................38 Table A8 Population projections for Darwin Health Districts, Northern Territory, 2002–2022............39 Table A9 Productivity Commission population projections, Northern Territory , 2002-2051..............40 Table A10 Estimated Resident Population for Health Zones, Northern Territory, 2001.......................41

List of figures and maps Diagram 1 Australian Standard Geographical Classification .................................................................2 Diagram 2 Mesh Blocks within an urban Collection District ...................................................................4 Map 1 Regions and Sub-regions, Northern Territory, 2005.............................................................6 Map 2 Health Districts, Department of Health and Community Services, Northern Territory,

2004 .....................................................................................................................................8 Map 3 Health Zones, Northern Territory, 2004..............................................................................10

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1 Introduction There are many different types of population figures available for use by Northern Territory Government (NTG) staff. Often, these figures are based directly on the Census of Population and Housing or population estimates, or indirectly on projections derived with a set of assumptions. Each of these population types has advantages and disadvantages depending on how the data were originally collected or estimated using other ancillary data such as births, deaths and migration data. Currently NTG staff use population data for a variety of purposes such as policy and planning analysis, population-based need assessment, evaluation of population-based program activities, epidemiological data analysis and for periodic administrative reporting. Conceptual issues relating to the data analysis depend upon the choice of the most appropriate data type, unit of observation, period of observation, unit of measurement and appropriate data source. In many cases population based program activity reporting requires accurate population data to summarise the information in a variety of formats such as tables, graphs or text. The purpose of this paper is to report on conceptual, methodological and reporting issues involved in the various population types. This includes both Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and non-ABS sources. The appendices to this paper provide a comprehensive list of the most recent population data available to users. The report is divided into six major components: • Introduction • Population components covering geography, age, sex and Indigenous status • Population types by ABS source covering the Census, Estimated Resident Population

(ERP), population projections, and Indigenous experimental population estimates and projections

• Population types by non-ABS source, including Department of Health and Community Services (DHCS) estimates; Community Government Council (CGC) estimates, Productivity Commission (PC) population projections, Medicare enrolment; school enrolment; DHCS client master index and Community Housing and Infrastructure Survey (CHINS)

• Reference section and • Appendix tables which include key population figures. The report draws on a variety of published information, primarily sourced from the ABS, and other relevant publications, articles and information papers.

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2 Population composition There are many dimensions of interest to demographers when studying populations – including place of residence, sex, age, ethnicity, occupation, education, marital status, employment status and living conditions. This section reports on geography, age, sex and Indigenous status, the most common population variables that we come across when describing the population.

Geography

2.1 The Australian Standard Geographical Classification The purpose of the Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) is for disseminating geographically classified statistics. The ASGC provides a common framework of statistical geography and thereby enables the production of statistics, which are comparable and can be spatially integrated.1 The ASGC is a hierarchical classification consisting of six interrelated classification structures: Local Government Area; Statistical District; Main; Statistical Region; Section of State; Remoteness and Urban Centre/Locality (Diagram 1). Diagram 1 Australian Standard Geographical Classification structure

Note: (a) Mesh Blocks are a smaller spatial unit than Collection Districts (CDs), and will replace CDs in 2006 Census. For further details refer Section 2.2 of this report.

Mesh Blocks(a)

Source: ABS, Statistical Concepts Library, ASGC 2001

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The Collection District (CD) is currently the smallest unit of the ASGC, and is designed for efficient data collection at Census times. Collection Districts aggregate to Statistical Local Areas (SLAs), which in turn aggregate to larger areas of the ASGC. Each of these geographical areas serves a specific purpose to support user needs. Often SLAs and Local Government Areas (LGAs) are defined on the administrative areas of local governments or suburbs. Hence the SLAs and LGAs are both a useful source of geographic unit for population data and a relatable dissemination unit for users. Many organisations employ CDs and SLAs as the building blocks to construct their own geography for statistical purposes. In the NT, the construction of NTG Regions, Sub-Regions, Health Zones and Health Districts can be related to CDs and SLAs. The ASGC is updated every year for selected spatial units. In a Census year, the ABS undertakes extensive work in redefining the CDs. Between Censuses (intercensal years), all spatial units except CDs, Urban Centres/Localities (UC/L), Section of State (SOS) and Remote Areas (RAs) are redefined according to changes in administrative or political boundaries during the reporting year. For example, in the NT, newly developed areas or suburbs are amalgamated into LGAs or Community Government Council (CGC) SLAs. Such changes with geographic boundaries are then incorporated into the ASGC. Often this process involves redesign of a spatial boundary or amalgamation of whole LGAs or SLAs. Table 1 shows various ASGC structures, their component spatial units and the number of spatial units at 1 July 2004.

2.2 Mesh Blocks Mesh Blocks are a new micro level of statistical geography for Australia, developed by the ABS in 2005.2 The Mesh Blocks are much smaller spatial units than CDs. Similar to CDs, mesh blocks will become the basic building block for all statistical, political and administrative regions in Australia. The initial design of 350 000 Mesh Blocks of Australia has been completed and comments will be sought from expert users and key stakeholders before introduction in the 2006 Census of Population and Housing and other statistical collections. Mesh Blocks are considered to have advantage over CDs, in that they provide a definitive boundary feature of existing physical land use category within the urban areas as well as in the sparsely populated rural areas. In NT, an estimated 3 500 Mesh Blocks have been created, which will eventually replace 498 CDs. Nearly 2 000 Mesh Blocks exist in Urban Centres/Localities and the remaining 1 500 are in rural areas, covering predominantly uninhabited areas of NT. Diagram 2 illustrates an example how the Mesh Blocks appear in one urban CD. For more details on Mesh Blocks refer to the ABS website: www.abs.gov.au.

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http://www.abs.gov.au./


Table 1 Australian Standard Geographical Classification structure and components of spatial units, Northern Territory, 2004

Structure Hierarchical levels

Number of spatial units

Component spatial units

Covers whole of Northern

Territory ? Local Government Area (LGA)

3 37 CD, SLA, LGA, S/T No

Statistical District (SD) 4 3 CD, SLA, SSD, SD No Main Collection District (CD) Mesh Blocks (MB) (a)

1 1

498 3 491

CD MB

Yes Yes

Statistical Local Area (SLA) 2 93 CD, SLA Yes Statistical Sub Division (SSD) 4 11 CD, SLA, SSD Yes Statistical Division (SD) 5 2 CD, SLA, SSD, SD,

S/T Yes

State/Territory (S/T) 6 1 Statistical Region (SR) 6 CD, SLA, SRS, SR,

MSR, S/T Yes

Section of State (SOS) 3 CD, SOS, S/T Yes Remoteness (RA) 3 CD, RA, S/T Yes Urban Centre/Locality (UC/L) 63 CD, UC/L No

Note: (a) Mesh Blocks count as at May 2006. Source: Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) – Electronic Publication, 2005. ABS Cat.No.1216.0. Diagram 2 Mesh Blocks within an urban Collection District

Parkland

Residential

Residential

Residential

Residential

A MESH BLOCK BOUNDARY

Residential

70,011,700,000Parkland

Parkland

Residential

70,011,640,000

70,011,730,000

70,011,700,000

70,011,850,000

70,011,770,00070,011,870,000

70,011,860,000

70,011,750,000

COLLECTION DISTRICT (CD) BOUNDARY

70,011,720,000

70,011,740,000

Source: ABS, Census Update 33 – July 2004 - Mesh Blocks.

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2.3 Regions and Sub-regions of the Northern Territory In 2004, the NT Department of the Chief Minister (DCM) and the Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Environment (DPIE) undertook a joint project to develop common statistical regional boundaries for all NTG agencies.3 The purpose of this project was to allow agencies to collect, compile and provide statistical information that was consistent and comparable across all government departments. In August 2005, the Northern Territory Government approved five regions and 23 Sub-regions and the Notification of Division of NT regions and Sub-regions was gazetted in the NTG Gazette No.G35, 31 August 2005 (see the Table 2 and Map 1).4 The Regional and Sub-regional boundaries are aligned with the ABS Census geographic boundaries. This common boundary alignment will assist in providing accurate NT population figures and improve capacity to develop demographic profiles at the Territory, regional, sub-regional and community level. The Department of Business Economic and Regional Development will record and maintain the new regional and sub-regional boundaries as part of its geographical information and mapping responsibilities. Table 2 Regions and Sub-regions, Northern Territory, 2005 Region Sub-region Area (sq km) Alice Springs 329 Hanson 51 061 Petermann-Simpson 167 971 Sandover-Plenty 136 257 Tanami 190 432 Alice Springs 546 049 Barkly North 167 516 Barkly South 127 099 Tennant Creek 42 Barkly 294 657 Alligator 28 725 Daly 38 524 Darwin 155 Finniss 7 234 Litchfield 2 914 Palmerston 53 Tiwi 7 492 West Arnhem 41 042 Darwin 126 140 Nhulunbuy 7 North Miwatj 32 328 South Miwatj 7 162 East Arnhem 39 497 Elsey 82 216 Gulf 89 762 Katherine 526 Victoria River 173 372 Katherine 345 877

Note: Sub-regional areas are computed using ABS 2001 CD boundary areas, aligned with NTG Regions and Sub-regions. Source: NTG Gazette No.G35, 31 August 2005.

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Map 1 Regions and Sub-regions, Northern Territory, 2005

A L I C E S P R I N G S

K A T H E R I N E

E A S T A R N H E MD A R W I N

B A R K L Y

Sandover-Plenty

Hanson

Elsey

Katherine

Alligator

West Arnhem North MiwatjNhulunbuy

Litchfield

Finniss

Darwin

Palmerston

Tennant Creek

Barkly North

Tanami

Petermann-Simpson

Tiwi

South Miwatj

Victoria River

Alice Springs

Barkly South

Daly

Gulf

Source: Industry and Economic Policy Division, Department of Business Economic and Regional Development of NTG. For further information contact: Dr Dennis Griffith, Senior Policy Advisor, Industry and Economic Policy Division, Department of Business Economic and Regional Development, PO Box 3200, Darwin NT 0801.

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2.4 Health Districts The Department of Health and Community Services (DHCS) historically administered its services through seven Health Districts. The district boundaries were based on the health service locations, and were similar to previously defined Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC) regions. However, as ATSIC regions were not part of the ASGC, accurate estimation of resident population for all the health districts was problematic. To address this inconsistency, in 2004 the Health Gains Planning (HGP) branch of DHCS refined the Health District boundaries. This was achieved by aligning the District boundaries with ABS 2001 Census CD boundaries using the GIS (MapInfo) system with the caveat that there was no effect on population counts or health service outlets (Table 3). The following methodology was adopted to produce a geo-referenced DHCS district map using MapInfo GIS Software: • the Northern Territory 2001 Census CD boundaries map was used as a template to create

the DHCS districts; and • based on existing DHCS health service outlets, local knowledge and 2001 CD boundaries,

a precise boundary was created for each district. The result of this exercise provides geo-referenced maps for all seven Health Districts (Map 2). These districts are geographically consistent with ABS 2001 Census CD boundaries.5

Table 3 Number of Collection Districts and Statistical Local Areas within each Health District

Health District (a)Number of Collection Districts

Number of Statistical Local

Areas Area (Sq. Km)

Darwin Urban 192 39 3 122 Darwin Rural 45 8 123 053 Katherine 67 6 344 957 East Arnhem 43 3 40 376 Barkly 23 4 289 837 Alice Springs Urban 53 6 349 Alice Springs Rural 64 3 550 526 Total (b) 498 68 1 352 220

Notes: (a) Single SLAs are often shared by two districts. (b) Includes off shore CDs. Source: 2001 Census Geography, ABS.

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Map 2 Health Districts, Department of Health and Community Services, Northern Territory, 2004

7 . A L I C E S P R I N G S U R B A N

6 . A L I C E S P R I N G S U R B A N

1 . D A R W I N U R B A N

4 . K A T H E R I N E

2 . D A R W I N R U R A L3 . E A S T A R N H E M

5 . B A R K L Y

Source: Health Gains Planning Branch, DHCS, NT.

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2.5 Health Zones

Health Zones are planning areas, created primarily on the basis of Aboriginal community and language groupings, and transport linkage. In NT, the Health Zones boundaries were first proposed in the Central Australian and Top End Regional Aboriginal Health Planning Studies, carried out by Bartlett et al in 1997 and 2000.6,7 Subsequent to release of the above planning study reports, the NT Aboriginal Health Forum (NTAHF) endorsed 21 Health Zones as the basis for the roll-out of the Primary Health Care Access Program (PHCAP). Indigenous health.

The DoHA Primary Health Care Access Program (PHCAP) provides funding for the expansion of comprehensive primary health care services in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities through clinical care, illness prevention and early intervention activities and management support systems. PHCAP provides for new services in areas identified as having the highest relative need and the community capacity to manage funding and service delivery.

Source: Australian Department of Health and Ageing Website:http://www.health.gov.au/internet/wcms/publishing.nsf/Content/Primary+Health+Care+Access+Program-1, Accessed 01 April 2006

Table 4 Health Zones, Northern Territory, 2004

Health Zone code Health Zone name Collection Districts(a)

1 Tiwi 5 2 Darwin 198 3 Top End West 15 4 West Arnhem 14 5 Maningrida 4 6 North East Arnhem 29 7 South East Arnhem 11 8 Katherine East 49 9 Katherine West 13 10 South East Top End 4 11 Northern Barkly 5 12 Central Barkly 15 13 Southen Barkly 6 14 Warlpiri 11 15 Anmatjere 13 16 Alyawarra - Anmatjere 9 17 Eastern Arrernte - Alyawaraa 8 18 Luritja-Pintupi 8 19 Western Arrernte 4 20 Alice Springs 57

Note: (a) Duplication of CDs may occur in some Health Zones due to overlap of boundaries. Source: Zhao Y, Paice J, Murtagh D, Lee H, Guthridge S. (2004). Population Estimates for Indigenous Health Zones in the Northern Territory. DHCS, NT (unpublished report).

In 2004, the Health Gains Planning Branch of the DHCS, with the support of the ABS, carried out a project to estimate resident and service populations for all Health Zones. To do this, it was necessary to define the Health Zones using the ASGC. A concordance between communities, Census CDs and Health Zones was established for this purpose and the number of Collection Districts mapped to each zone is listed in Table 4.The result of the concordance was geo-referenced maps for all 21 Health Zones, consistent with ABS 2001 Census CD boundaries (Map 3).

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http://www.health.gov.au/internet/wcms/publishing.nsf/Content/Primary+Health+Care+Access+Program-1


Map 3 Health Zones, Northern Territory, 2004

Pitjantjatjara

Western Arrernte

North East Arnhem

Maningrida

South East Arnhem

Tiwi

Darwin

Top End West

Anmatjere

Eastern Arrernte - Alyawarra

Alyawarra - Anmatjere

Central Barkly

Northern Barkly

West Arnhem

Katherine East

South East Top End

Katherine West

Southen Barkly

Warlpiri

Luritja-Pintupi

Alice Springs

Source: Zhao Y, Paice J, Murtagh D, Lee H, Guthridge S. (2004). Population Estimates for Indigenous Health Zones in the Northern Territory. DHCS, NT (unpublished report).

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Population characteristics

2.6 Age Age has been collected in all Australian Censuses and is one of the basic demographic variables used in population statistics.8 Age data, combined with sex data, are essential for the production of accurate population estimates. Age is also widely used in cross-classifications with other variables such as Indigenous status etc. ABS defines age as the measure of time elapsed from date of live birth to a specific point in time measured in complete years. The main purpose of the Age classification is to produce data items which measure or indicate a person’s age in years. However, the classification may be applied to a variety of other variables such as age at death, age at arrival, age at marriage or calculating age-specific death rates, age-specific mortality rates etc. In the Census, the ABS classifies each person’s age into single year categories, from 0 to 99 years, and 100 years or more. For infants aged less than one year, 0 years of age is recorded. When no age is reported, the ABS imputes an age using other information on the Census form. The following question in the Census form is asked to identify the age: Source: Household Census Form, 2001 Census, ABS

Age groups The choice of age groups for an analysis is generally based on number of principles such that the categories should be manageable and meaningful; and groupings should not distort the data. Due to the wide variety of uses of age data, it is not possible to have one standard set of output categories to satisfy all applications. The ABS has developed several sets of standard output categories based on international standard criteria for the classification of age (Table 5). The general guidelines for age classification recommended by ABS are: • Standard output classification is 5 year age groups; • Groups of more than 5 years should be multiples of 5 years; • Groups of less than 5 years or single years should be capable of aggregation to 5 year age

groups; and • Five year age groups should start with the digit ‘0’ or ‘5’ and finish in numbers ending with

the digits ‘4’ or ‘9’ eg 20-24, 25-29.

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Table 5 Selected standard age groups

5-year groupings for administrative collections (a)

5-year groupings for deriving age-specific

rates (b)

10-year groupings (commencing with a 5-year grouping of 0-4 years

followed by 10 year age groups) 0 – 4 5 – 9 10 – 14 15 – 19 20 – 24 25 – 29 30 – 34 35 – 39 40 – 44 45 – 49 50 – 54 55 – 59 60 – 64 65 – 69 70 – 74 75 – 79 80 – 84 85 and over Total

0 – 4 5 – 9

10 – 14 15 – 19 20 – 24 25 – 29 30 – 34 35 – 39 40 – 44 45 – 49 50 – 54 55 – 59 60 – 64 65 – 69 70 – 74

75 and over Total

0 – 4 5 – 14

15 – 24 25 – 34 35 – 44 45 – 54 55 – 64 65 – 74 75 – 84 85 – 94

95 and over Total

Notes: (a) Output age group used in data sets such as ERP, Census place of enumeration and usual residents counts (b) Output age group used for age-specific death rates

It is recognised that some collections have specific requirements, which make it mandatory or highly desirable for output categories to vary from the recommended 5 and 10-year age groups. For example, tailored output categories are required for statistical data relating specifically to children, perinatal deaths, the elderly, and applications where legal requirements such as school leaving age or legal age for marriage are considerations. A variety of age groups are used in NT DHCS health reports which is demonstrated in Table 6. Table 6 Age groups used in NT DHCS reports

Tobacco related age-specific death rates mortality 9

Age-specific death rates 10

NT non-Indigenous health

and wellbeing survey 11

NT physical activity survey

2003 12

NT child health & wellbeing

parent survey 13

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and over

0-4 5-24

25-44 45-64

65 and over

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

65 and over

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54

0-4 5-8

9-12

2.7 Sex Sex is a basic demographic variable used in almost all data collections relating to population. It differentiates population in terms of male and female numbers and characteristics. The term ‘sex’ is used rather than ‘gender’ because it more accurately reflects the biological distinction between males and females. Sex is a flat classification having only one level with the two categories ‘Male’ and ‘Female’. For the collection of data on sex the ABS standard questionnaire module is a tick box. Usually the category Male is shown first followed by Female. Source: Household Census Form, 2001 Census, ABS

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2.8 Indigenous status Australia’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) peoples occupy a unique place in Australian society and culture. Accurate and consistent statistics about Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are needed in order to plan, promote and deliver essential services, to monitor changes in wellbeing and to account for government expenditure in this area. In 1967 a referendum was held to amend Section 127 of the constitution so that all Indigenous Australians were included in the Census. Prior to this Indigenous Australians were only counted in order to exclude them from population estimates for each State/Territory. In 1971 and 1976 census, people were asked to record their racial origin. However in the 1981 Census the word ‘racial’ was been dropped from the Census question. In the 1996 Census, identification of Indigenous Australian’s origin as Aboriginal, Torres Strait Islander or both Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander was allowed for the first time. Prior this, only Aboriginal was recorded.14,15

Basis of the Indigenous status standard The ABS Indigenous status standard is based on a definition that arose out of a High Court judgement and is accepted by the Australian Government:

An Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander is a person of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander descent who identifies as an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander and is accepted as such by the community in which he or she lives. Source: Commonwealth v Tasmania (1983) 46 ALR 625.

The definition requires three criteria for the identification of Indigenous people: being of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander descent; self-identification, and acceptance by the community. In practice, it is not feasible in most statistical and administrative collections to collect information on community acceptance. Therefore, the identification of Indigenous status incorporates information on descent (or origin) and self-identification only. The ABS and other organisations recommend the following question to collect Indigenous status.16

Source: Household Census Form, 2001 Census, ABS.

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3 ABS sources of population data

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes three types of population measures: • Census population counts, based on place of enumeration and place of usual residence; • Estimated Resident Population counts for census and intercensal years; and • Population projections for the post-Census years.

Census of Population and Housing The Census of Population and Housing (the Census) is the largest statistical collection undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Australia’s first national Census was held in 1911, and since 1961 a Census has been taken every five years, a frequency specified in the Census and Statistics Act 1905.17

The main objective of the Census is to measure the number of people in Australia and their key characteristics at a given point in time. The Census count also provides a reliable basis for the estimation of the population of each State and Territory, and for smaller geographic levels. The Census population counts include overseas visitors and exclude Australian residents living overseas on the Census date (7 August 2001 for the last Census). People entering Australia from overseas before midnight on Census Night is counted where they stayed on Census Night. Visitors to Australia are counted regardless of how long they had been in the country or how long they planned to stay. Australian residents in Antarctica are also within the scope of the Census. People who leave Australia for an overseas destination before midnight on Census Night are not counted. Australian residents out of the country on Census night, and overseas diplomatic personnel and their families in Australia are out of the scope of the Census.18

The Census count can be tabulated by place of enumeration (where persons are counted) and/or by place of usual residence (where persons normally live) in Australia.

3.1 Place of enumeration Place of enumeration refers to where people were on Census Night. This count provides a snapshot of the population at a particular time. The ABS defines counts by place of enumeration as:

…a count of every person, who spent Census Night in Australia, based on where he/she was counted; including people on board vessels in or between Australian ports, or on long-distance trains, buses or aircraft. People were counted where they spent Census Night, which may not be where they usually live.19

The place of enumeration count provides a snapshot in any given area on Census Night. Although the Census is timed to attempt to capture typical situations, tourist or holiday destinations and resort areas such as Yulara (Uluru) and to some extent Alice Springs, Kakadu (Jabiru), and Darwin have high place of enumeration counts compared with usual residence population counts. This is because the NT attracts a large number of tourists during the month of August who are counted on Census Night as visitors.

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The following question on the Census form is used to identify place of enumeration on Census Night.

Source: Household Census Form, 2001 Census, ABS

The majority of Census output is available on a place of enumeration basis for individual CDs or aggregations of them. These aggregations include Local Government Areas and (CD derived) Postcodes. Household address on Census Night is used to confirm the geographic code allocated to the household.

3.2 Place of usual residence In the Census, usual residence is defined as the address (dwelling) at which a person has lived or intends to live for a total of six months or more during the Census year. The place of usual residence refers to the place where a person usually lives, rather than the place where they were counted on Census Night. The place of usual residence count forms the basis for the Estimated Resident Population (ERP) because it is less likely to be influenced by seasonal factors such as school holidays and wet seasons than the place of enumeration count. Three questions are asked to identify the usual resident of a person: where the person usually lives on Census Night, where the person usually lived one year ago, and five years ago (see 2001 Census questions below). Population mobility can be analysed from the responses given to questions 8 and 9, which helps identify internal migration patterns at the state and regional levels.20

The 2001 Census was the first census for which usual residence data was made available at CD level. The usual residence information was computed by coding the person’s address information collected in question 7 at CD level. When the respondent provided insufficient address information, residence was imputed at SLA rather than CD level. Table 7 outlines the usual residence variables that are available from the 2001 Census.

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Source: Household Census Form, 2001 Census, ABS.

Table 7 Usual residence variable items, 2001 Census

ASGC Variable details Variable Item CD CD of Usual Residence Census Night CDUCP SLA SLA of Usual Residence Census Night SLAUCP SLA SLA of Usual Residence One Year Ago SLAU1P SLA SLA of Usual Residence Five Years Ago SLAU5P State State of Usual Residence Census Night STEUCP State State of Usual Residence One Year Ago STEU1P State State of Usual Residence Five Years Ago STEU5P

Source: ABS, 2001 Census Dictionary: Census Concepts and Definitions.

Estimated Resident Population Estimated Resident Population (ERP) figures are produced for the Census year as well as for intercensal periods. Population estimates are referred to as preliminary, revised or final depending upon the time of the release and usage of other datasets. Preliminary estimates are generally made available 6 months after the end of each quarter. Revised estimates are generally published each September for the financial year (eg. revised estimates for the 2003-04 financial year would be available in September 2005). Final estimates are published after each Census for the previous intercensal period.

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3.3 Census year Estimated Resident Population For Census years, the ERP for Australia, States and Territories is determined based on the place of usual residence count, to which is added the estimated net Census undercount and Australian residents estimated to have been temporarily overseas at the time of the Census. Overseas visitors in Australia are excluded from this calculation.21 There are four steps involved in arriving at these estimates, the details of which are presented in Tables 8. Table 8 Steps involved in estimating Census year Estimated Resident Population

Level Procedure

Step 1 Place of usual residents are compiled for each State by single year of age and sex.

Step 2 The counts are adjusted upwards to compensate for Census net undercount.

Step 3

Estimates of the number of Australian residents temporarily overseas on Census Night are obtained from passenger card statistics for those Australian residents intending to return in the subsequent 12 months of the Census night. These are added to the adjusted Census counts derived in Step 2 to give Census date population estimates.

Step 4

The population estimates at 7 August are then backdated to 30 June. This was accomplished using data from births and deaths registrations, overseas arrivals and departures data and estimates of interstate migration for the period 1 July to 7 August.

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 The components of the 2001 ERP are shown in Table 9. Table 9 Components of 2001 Estimated Resident Population, Northern Territory and Australia

At end of period Northern Territory Australia (a)

Males Females Total ‘000 ‘000 ‘000 ‘000

Components (7 August, 2001) Census counts (place of enumeration) 110.2 100.5 210.7 18 972.4

Plus residents absent interstate 2.1 1.8 3.9 241.0 Less interstate visitors 10.4 8.1 18.5 241.0 Less overseas visitors 4.0 3.9 7.9 203.1

Equals Census counts of Place of Usual Residence 97.9 94.3 188.1 18 769.2

Plus allowance for under–enumeration (b) 4.3 3.2 7.5 346.2 Plus residents temporarily overseas 1.3 1.0 2.3 330.2

Equals ERP as at 7 August 2001 103.6 93.3 197.9 19 445.6

Components from 1 July to 7 August 2001

Less births 0.2 0.2 0.4 25.4 Plus deaths 0.1 - 0.1 14.8 Less net inter-state migration -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 na Less net permanent and long- term overseas movement # # # 21.8

Equals ERP at 30 June 2001 103.5 94.3 197.8 19 413.2

Notes: na - not applicable # - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) (a) Includes Other Territories. (b) On a usual residence basis Source: ABS Cat. No. 3101.0 – Sept Qtr 2002.

17


3.4 Intercensal Estimated Resident Population The Estimated Resident Population for the intercensal years is estimated by adding to the estimated resident population at the beginning of each period (quarter), the components of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration. For the State and Territory estimates, interstate movements are also taken into account. This ERP updating process can be expressed mathematically as follows: Pt+1 = Pt + Bt, t+1 - Dt, t+1 + Ot, t+1 + I t, t+1

where:

Pt+1 = estimated population at the end of period t+1 Pt = estimated population at the end of period t Bt, t+1 = births during period t,t+1 Dt, t+1 = deaths during period t,t+1 Ot, t+1 = net overseas migrants during period t,t+1 It, t+1 = net interstate migrants during period t,t+1 (applies only SLA estimates)

The resulting updated population estimate (Pt+1) then become the base population in the calculation of estimates for the following period.

Intercensal revision of population estimates In Census years, both preliminary estimates (derived from the previous Census) and final estimates (based on current Census) for the intercensal years are prepared. Differences between these two sets of estimates are referred to as the intercensal error. In other words, it is simply a difference between the current Census-based ERP (2001) and the previous Census-based ERP (1996). An indication of the accuracy of ERP can be gauged by assessing the size and direction of the intercensal errors. For Australia, the preliminary June 2001 ERP under-estimated the final June 2001 ERP by 0.1% (26 600 persons). For the NT, the intercensal (1996-2001) error was about 200 persons. The Census allows an assessment of how much of the intercensal error was due to inaccuracies in estimates of interstate migration. The relevant Census questions are the questions on usual residence 1 year ago and 5 years ago. Following adjustment of intercensal error for the intercensal interstate migration, the remaining (unattributable) portion is known as the intercensal discrepancy. The intercensal discrepancy cannot be attributed to specific quarters during the intercensal period, and is consequently distributed on a uniform basis across quarterly population estimates. . For example, in the case of a five-year intercensal period (ie. 20 quarters), the population at the end of the first quarter is adjusted up or down by 1/20 of the intercensal discrepancy, the second quarter is adjusted by 2/20, the third by 3/20 etc.

Intercensal discrepancy is the difference between two estimates at 30 June of a Census year population, the first based on the latest Census and the second arrived at by updating the 30 June estimate of the previous Census year with intercensal components of population change which take account of information available from the latest Census. It is caused by errors in the start and/or finish population estimates and/or in estimates of births, deaths or migration in the intervening period which cannot be attributed to a particular source. Source: ABS, 2001 Census Dictionary: Census Concepts and Definitions.

18


Table 10 Intercensal discrepancies, 1996–2001

Intercensal error Intercensal discrepancy Number (a) Number (a) Per cent Northern Territory

200

300

0.15

Australia (b) -10 600 -10 600 -0.05 Notes: Estimates rounded to nearest hundred. (b) Includes Other Territories comprising Jervis Bay, Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Source: ABS, Cat. No. 3101.0 - Sept Qtr 2002. ABS, Canberra & ABS submission to the joint standing committee on electoral matters inquiry into the representation of the NT in the House of Representatives, 14 August 2003. Estimated resident population numbers by sex for Australia and each of the States/Territories are published by ABS every quarter as at 31 March, 30 June, 30 September and 31 December. Estimates by single year of age and sex are compiled quarterly but are only published annually as at 30 June. Estimates for SLAs and LGAs are updated annually.

Population projections

3.5 Population projections Population projections are not predictions or forecasts, but are simply illustrations of future change in population, which would occur if certain assumptions about future trends in the rates of fertility, mortality and migration held true. Currently ABS publishes population projections every two to three years in order to regularly service the needs of users of population projections. The most recent population projections published by ABS (Cat.No.3222.0) is from June 2004 to June 2101 for Australia and from June 2004 to June 2051 for the States, Territories, Capital Cities and Balances of State. These projections are based on the ERP at June 2004.22 There are several techniques available for population projections, ranging from simple extrapolation methods through to broad economic, social and time-series analysis and detailed component methods. The ABS uses the cohort-component method, which begins with a base population for each sex by single year of age and advances it year by year by applying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. Assumed age-specific fertility rates are applied to the female population of childbearing age to provide the new cohort of births. This procedure is repeated for each year in the projection period for each State and Territory and for Australia. It is also repeated to obtain the capital city/balance of state projections for each State and Territory. The resulting population projections for each year for the States and Territories, by sex and single years of age are adjusted to sum to the Australian results. Likewise, capital city/balance of State projections are adjusted to add to the State/Territory projection total.23

The ABS publishes three population projection series (Series A, B and C) with assumptions as shown in Table 11.

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Table 11 Assumptions for Australian Bureau of Statistics population projection series 2002–2101

Series A Assumes that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will reach 1.8 babies per woman by 2011

and then remain constant, life expectancy at birth will continue to improve through to 2050–51 reaching 92.2 years for males and 95.0 years for females, Net Overseas Migration (NOM) of 125,000 per year from 2005–06 through to 2050–51, and high flows of interstate migration.

Series B

Assumes that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will fall to 1.6 babies per woman by 2011 and then remain constant, life expectancy at birth will continue to improve each year, though at a declining rate, and will reach 84.2 years for males and 87.7 years for females in 2050–51, Net Overseas Migration (NOM) of 100,000 per year from 2005–06 through to 2050–51, and medium flows of interstate migration.

Series C Assumes that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will fall to 1.4 babies per woman by 2011 and then remain constant through to 2050–51, life expectancy at birth will continue to improve each year, though at a declining rate, and will reach 84.2 years for males and 87.7 years for females in 2050–51, Net Overseas Migration (NOM) of 70,000 per year from 2005–06 through to 2050–51, and small flows of interstate migration.

Source: ABS Cat. No. 3222.0 More detailed information for the above series can be obtained free of charge from the ABS web site <http://www.abs.gov.au> by selecting AusStats > Publications and Data > Data Cubes > by Catalogue/Subject, and then selecting Population trends and estimates, 3222.0 - Population Projections.

3.6 Indigenous experimental population estimates and projections The population estimates and projections of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) population are referred to as experimental because there is significant intercensal volatility in Indigenous Census counts and the quality of the data on births, deaths and migration is variable. This means that the standard approach to population estimation or projection cannot be used. The identification of Indigenous status and population mobility are major barriers to the accurate estimation of the Indigenous population. A study carried out by Cunningham et al (2002) of the Menzies School of Health Research reported that “..the Indigenous population is not a closed population; people may legitimately move in and out of the population by changing the way in which they identify. This can vary according to circumstances and/or over time. As a consequence, it is difficult to estimate the size and characteristics of the Indigenous population at a given point in time”.24 Other major concerns with Indigenous population estimates are discrepancies between the population counts of successive censuses, which cannot be explained by estimated deaths, births and migration during the intervening five-year period. The ABS Experimental Estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) population of Australia based on the 2001 Census are available for 1991 to 2001, and projections for 2002 to 2009. Table 12 illustrates the steps involved in estimating the Indigenous population.

20

http://www.abs.gov.au/


Table 12 Steps involved in estimating the Indigenous experimental population estimates 25

Steps Procedure 1 The following adjustments are applied to Census counts of Indigenous persons by

Statistical Local Area (SLA) of usual residence to produce the estimated population at 7 August 2001: • Non-response to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander origin question in the Census; • Unknown Indigenous status on Census forms is imputed; • Net Census undercount of Indigenous persons adjusted using Post Enumeration

Survey (PES) data; and • Adjustment for Residents Temporarily Overseas (RTOs) on Census Night

2 The effects of births, deaths, overseas migration and interstate migration for the 38 days between 1 July and 7 August 2001 are removed to derive 30 June 2001 estimates.

3 Zero net internal and external migration is assumed for backdating the 30 June 2001 estimates to 30 June 1991. Census data also indicates that the level of external migration of Indigenous persons is negligible. Hence zero migration is assumed to derive the estimates.

4 These 30 June 2001 estimates are ‘survived’ back to 30 June 1991 using experimental Indigenous life tables. This method is known as the reverse survival method. This was done because the quality of the component series (Census counts, births and deaths) does not support the application of the cohort component method.

Note: This series is useful for studying growth in the Indigenous population in the period 1991 to 2001. However, caution should be exercised in calculating birth rates and death rates using these backdated population figures, as Indigenous population estimates are likely to be inconsistent with Indigenous identification in the births and deaths collections. Source: ABS Cat.No.3238.0

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4 Non-ABS sources of population data

4.1 Department of Health and Community Services population estimates The Health Gains Planning branch of DHCS produces population estimates for the NT broken down by Indigenous status, sex, 5-year age group and health district. The HGP population estimates are based on the ABS ERP and made available once the ABS publishes SLA ERPs at the end of each financial year. Since ABS SLA population estimates are not available by Indigenous status, the HGP has developed estimates by using published intercensal ERPs and splitting the total ERP population by Indigenous status using Census year ERP figures. The HGP methodology for the estimation of the Indigenous population for intercensal year is outlined in the following sections for the two periods pre-1991 and post 1991.26

Pre-1991 Indigenous population estimates Prior to 1991, Census counts for the Indigenous population were unreliable in the Territory. This was primarily due to under-identification of Indigenous persons and poor Census data collection methods for the Indigenous population. To address this a ‘backcast’ method was developed by HGP using Indigenous ERP estimates and mortality data (prior to 1991). The estimates were based on the formula:

Population in Year (i-1) = Population in Year i + (Deaths - Births - Net Migration) Where Net Migration was assumed to be zero for Indigenous populations.

For example, the number of Indigenous people in the Census year 1986 was estimated by using the 1991 ERP, then adding the number of deaths and subtracting the number of births for the five-year period from 1986 to 1991. A similar process was used to determine age group estimates so that all age groups could be adjusted to their corresponding age group in 1986, ie people aged between 5-9 years in 1991 were in the 0-4 age group in 1986, and the people aged between 10-14 year in 1991 were in the 5-9 age group in 1986. This method is applied by sex and used to derive complete population estimates for all Census years back to 1971.

Post 1991 Indigenous population estimates The ERPs by Indigenous status for the Census years and intercensal ERPs by SLA are used to estimate the DHCS population estimates from 1991 to 2004. These estimates are based on an aggregation of CDs or SLAs and are available by five-year age group, sex, Indigenous status and health district for all seven DHCS districts. Prior to the year 2001, the population estimates for “health districts”, were created using ABS data based on ATSIC regions. From 2001 onwards, the resident population estimates are based on the DHCS health districts, which are consistent with 2001 Census boundaries.

22


4.2 Productivity Commission population projections In 2004, following a request from the Council of Australian Governments, the Productivity Commission (PC) undertook a research study examining the productivity, labour supply and fiscal implications of likely demographic trends over the next 40 years. As part of this study, the PC released population projections for all States/Territories. These projections have been developed in consultation with an expert group, comprising the ABS and some of Australia’s leading demographers. The projections are based on the available information about fertility, mortality and migration trends. The model used in developing the PC projections is called PC-M series. The PC-M series uses a cohort-component model, a stock flow model of the population by age groups. It recognises that in moving from a population at a given date to a new population one year later, there are a set of inflows and outflows. The PC-M model developed population projections for all States and Territories by single year age and sex, but not by Indigenous status. Given that the NT has distinct demographic features the Commission has developed a separate model for the NT population. This alternative model known as PC-NTALT, models the NT Indigenous and non-Indigenous sub-populations separately. The NT projections are experimental projections only and reflect particular assumptions about the mortality and fertility of NT Indigenous population and the net interstate migration of non-Indigenous Territorians.27

Table 13 Productivity Commission assumptions for population projections, 2004-2051

PC-M Series

The base population used in model is Estimated Resident Population at 30 June 2004 classified by age and sex Total fertility rate (TFR): Assumes that the TFR increases by 0.005 per year from its level of 1.754 in 2003 until 2012 then by 0.001 for the next year, reaching a TFR of 1.8 in 2013 after which the TFR remains constant. Life expectancy: Assumes that life expectancy at birth will continue to improve from 78.4 for males and 83.6 for females in 2001, reaching 84.2 years and 87.7 years respectively by 2051. Net Overseas Migration (NOM): Assumes that NOM of 115,000 per year from 2004–05 through to 2050–51, and high flows of interstate migration.

PC-NTALT Model

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Same assumption as that used in PC-M series. Life expectancy: The life expectancy assumptions used for Australia as a whole (as above PC-M series) is used to generate non-Indigenous population projections. In case of Indigenous population, there are three scenarios for life expectancy: High cases: Assumes that Life Expectancy at Birth will continue to improve from 57.6 for males and 65.2 for females in 2001, reaching 75.4 years and 80.8 years respectively by 2051. Medium cases: Assumes that Life Expectancy at Birth will continue to improve from 57.6 for males and 65.2 for females in 2001, reaching 69.6 years and 75.7 years respectively by 2051. Low cases: Assumes that no improvement in life expectancy will occur over the projection period.

Source: Productivity Commission 2005, Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia, Research Report, Canberra. www.pc.gov.au

23

http://www.pc.gov.au/


4.3 Population projections for Statistical Local Areas Population projections exist for NT Statistical Local Area (SLAs) from 2002 to 2022 by single year age and sex.These projections were prepared by the ABS as part of the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) consultancy in accordance with DoHA specifications and assumptions, and are not official ABS statistics. The cohort-component method was used for these projections, where base population was forwarded annually by calculating the effects of births, deaths and migrations within each SLA, age-sex group according to specified fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. The base population for NT SLAs was the preliminary ERP by single year and sex, as at 30 June 2002. The SLA level fertility and mortality assumptions were derived by combining the medium scenario of the State/Territory assumptions from the ABS Population Projections Australia, 2002 to 2101 (ABS Cat. No.3222.0), published on 2 September 2003 with historical patterns observed in each SLA. Assumptions used for SLA population projections are shown in the following Table 14.28

Table 14 Assumptions for Department of Health and Ageing Population Projection Series, 2002-2022

SLA Population Projections Assumptions

The base population used in model is Estimated Resident Population at 30 June 2002 classified by age and sex Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Assumes that the TFR will decline to 1.6 babies per women by 2011 and then remain constant. Life Expectancy: Under the medium mortality assumption the pattern of change in age-sex specific death rates from 1999–2001 is assumed to continue until 2050–51. In NT the life expectancy at birth for males was 70.8 years and for females 76.5 years in 1999-2001. Net Overseas Migration (NOM): The assumed migration levels are based on historical trends of net migration in each SLA. The age-sex distribution for the assumed migration levels are based on the overseas and inter-SLA migration rates used in the calculation of published ABS SLA age-sex population estimates, originally derived from the 2001 Census. Special care should be taken with small SLAs with population less than 1000 people and SLA with small age-sex cells (population less than 100).

Source: Statistical Consultancy Project note on population projections for NT SLAs. The Department of Health and Community Services purchased the above series and the data file can be found at NT Government ABS Consultancy Container: www.abs.gov.au/abs@ntgov. To access the user-id and password please contact the ABS NT office on (08) 8943 2189.

4.4 Community Government Council estimates The Northern Territory Grants Commission (NTGC) prepares recommendations on an annual basis for the distribution of Commonwealth Financial Assistance Grants to local governing bodies. As part of this exercise, community population figures are collected by the NTGC on an annual basis through its annual survey of Community Government Councils (CGC) and Incorporated Associations.29

The community population estimates by CGC are based on data collected from community housing, rental waiting lists, information from local health clinics and other anecdotal information collected directly from community members. Often such collected data are cross checked with other published data sources including the ABS Census of Population and Housing, the Community Housing and Infrastructure Survey (CHINS), and community profiles etc. The estimates are stored in the Community Information Access System (CIAS), an Oracle database developed by the NT Government to enhance community information management and access.

24

http://www.abs.gov.au/abs@ntgov


Most of this information is accessible on-line through “Bush Telegraph” in the NT Government Intranet [http://finke.nt.gov.au/BushT/community.nsf]. Time series population estimates are also kept in CIAS and are available on request. There is a lack of official documentation on the population data collected by NTGC, which limits the usefulness of the data.

4.5 Medicare enrolment Medicare is the Australian Government funded health insurance scheme that provides free or subsidised health care services to the Australian population.30

The Medicare scheme covers all people normally resident in Australia, except foreign diplomats and their dependants. Essentially all Australian citizens, New Zealand citizens and those people holding permanent resident status are eligible to enrol in Medicare. The Australian Government has also signed Reciprocal Health Care Agreements (RHCAs) with countries such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Italy, Malta, Ireland and Norway. Under this agreement, visitors from those countries can access necessary health care while in Australia.31

In theory the Medicare population is all Australian usual residents plus non-Australian residents granted temporary registration. In practise however, a variety of Australian usual residents who are eligible to use Medicare are unlikely to do so consistently because of access to alternative health services (for example Indigenous people, defence force personnel, prisoners and persons eligible for Department of Veteran’s Affairs Health Services). Conversely Medicare’s population base is expected to exceed the ideal population base (i.e. all Australian usual residents) with regard to registrations relating to international visitors, delay in deletion of registration of those who have died or moved overseas on a permanent or long-term basis or multiple registrations of the same person.32

The Health Insurance Commission (HIC) publishes data on the utilisation of Medicare services on its web site: www.medicareaustralia.gov.au. These data provide utilisation of Medicare services by item number, age group and gender, and by State and Territory. In general, HIC data collection, management and release practices comply with the Information Privacy Principles of the Privacy Act 1988 and the secrecy provisions of the Health Insurance Act 1973. Hence availability of Medicare enrolment data is restricted to the Australian postcode level. Postcode data have some limitations for reporting below jurisdictional level such as NT health districts or health zones. Similarly, delays in change of resident address notifications and failure to inform about deceased persons also limit the usefulness of Medicare enrolment data. In a recent Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) Audit Report on Medicare data 33 stated:

Perhaps the most changeable element of a consumer’s personal information stored in the Medicare enrolment system is their mailing address…To a large extent, HIC must rely on individual consumers notifying it of a change of address… generally, the Medicare enrolment database is sufficiently complete and up to date to support the various business functions that currently rely on the database…An exception to the general conclusion above is the half million active Medicare enrolment records (about 2 per cent of all enrolments in Australia), which most probably relate to people who are deceased.

In spite of such limitations, the ABS claims that Medicare data remain the best administrative data source available for preparing post censal internal migration estimates. Even though data problems exist, population coverage and timeliness in particular point to its superiority over other data sources.34

25

http://finke.nt.gov.au/BushT/community.nsf

http://www.hic.gov.au/


4.6 School enrolment The National Schools Statistics Collection (NSSC) is a collection of information on the number and characteristics of schools, students and staff on annual basis. These data are processed by ABS and published in Schools Australia (ABS cat no 4221.0). This publication provides nationally comparable data for government and non-government schools in all States and Territories. The collection of schools statistics is a collaborative arrangement between State, Territory and Australian Government education authorities. The Performance Measurement and Reporting Taskforce (PMRT) of the Ministerial Council on Education, Employment, Training and Youth Affairs (MCEETYA) of which the ABS is a member, manages this process.35 The annual schools Census carried out by State and Territory government education departments collect population information in August. The data variables include the number of full-time students, age (age is not collected for part-time students), and sex and Indigenous status for both primary and secondary students in the age group 5-19 years. The scope of the schools Census includes students who are formally enrolled in a school and active in a course of study other than preschool or TAFE courses. Students not present at school on the Census date are included if they are expected to be absent for less than four continuous weeks (excluding school vacations) and are excluded if they have left the school or have been absent without explanation for four continuous weeks prior to the Census date.36

Historically, the school enrolment data was used by the ABS to produce population estimates of intercensal years. In NT, until 1991, the main indicator used for estimating the SLA population was school enrolment. After 1991, other variables such as Family Allowances recipients and Building Approval, Medicare enrolment, electricity connections, births and deaths became more commonly used. Even though school enrolment data provide a potentially good coverage of children, the data is more specific to the area in which school is situated rather than where students normally live, and hence likely to be unrepresentative of the resident population.37

Extensive range of statistics on schools, students and staff is available in Excel spreadsheet format on the ABS web site at [URL:http//www.abs.gov.au}. An example of the type of NT school enrolment data available in the data cube is tabled below (see Table 15).

26


Table 15 Number of full-time students by category of school and level, Northern Territory, 2005

Level Government Catholic Independent All schoolsPrimary Pre-year 1(a) 2 607 365 320 3 292Year 1 2 550 356 259 3 165Year 2 2 601 360 246 3 207Year 3 2 453 356 260 3 069Year 4 2 519 390 259 3 168Year 5 2 495 404 252 3 151Year 6 2 414 358 229 3 001Year 7 2 148 411 297 2 856Ungraded 139 139Total primary 19 926 3 000 2 122 25 048 High school Year 8 1 910 406 520 2 836Year 9 1 768 388 492 2 648Year 10 1 579 351 427 2 357Year 11 1 667 170 214 2 051Year 12 1 060 164 170 1 394Ungraded 644 395 1 039Total high school 8 628 1 479 2 218 12 325 Total 28 554 4 479 4 340 37 373Notes: Blank cells are nil or rounded to zero. (a) Pre-year 1 is called Transition in the Northern Territory Source: Schools Australia 2005, ABS Cat. No. 4221.0

4.7 Department of Health and Community Services Client Master Index The Client Master Index (CMI) is an electronic database of the DHCS used to register hospital client information. Upon registration each client is provided with a unique identifier known as Hospital Record Number (HRN). Personal information such as name, address, locality name, sex, date of birth, marital status, Indigenous status and Medicare number is collected and stored in the CMI database along with the HRN. Contact details are updated whenever a client uses the health services.38

The allocation of an HRN for each individual client assists the department to implement and monitor health service delivery programs and to provide a continuum of care as clients move between different services provided by or through the department. It will also facilitate information access and exchange within the NT and on a national basis. The CMI captures data on both NT residents and non-residents, including visitors who use health services provided by the department. It does not include information on people who use services provided by General Practices, allied health and dental services or non-DHCS healthcare facilities. The coverage of Indigenous clients is much more stable than the non-Indigenous clients because the Indigenous people make greater use of DHCS services for primary health care purposes, while non-Indigenous people make greater use of GP services for their primary care. The CMI data can easily be aggregated to any geographic area (such as Health Districts or Health Zones) using locality names or codes. The CMI is highly secure and governed by the Privacy Act. The data can be accessed on special request through the DHCS Information Services. The major limitation with the CMI

27


database is its ability to accurately update the records of those who have left the NT permanently or died at locations other than NT hospitals. To address this in part, the CMI is crosschecked against information provided by Births, Deaths and Marriages to remove the records of those people who died at locations other than NT hospitals. It is currently unable to update the records of interstate deaths.

4.8 Community Housing and Infrastructure Survey

The Community Housing and Infrastructure Survey (CHINS), although called a survey, is a complete enumeration of all Indigenous housing organisations and discrete Indigenous communities. The purpose of this information to assist government agencies in policy decisions, program development, and targeting of funding to discrete Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities most in need. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC) commissioned CHINS in 1999 and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) conducted two surveys in 1999 and 2001. Both surveys were conducted through personal interview with key members of Indigenous communities and Indigenous Housing Organisations (IHO) and collected data pertaining to population, housing, water supply, sewerage, power, communication, roads, air access, education facilities, health services etc. A similar survey, known as the Housing and Community Infrastructure Needs Survey (HCINS),39 was commissioned by ATSIC in 1992, prior to the 1999 and 2001 CHINS surveys. The CHINS captures data on the people who usually reside in each community. The usual population of the community is the number of people who usually live in that community. In this context ‘residence’ means the community in which a person resides or intends to reside for at least six months. This includes non-Indigenous residents who meet the above criteria. CHINS data is a useful source of information about populations at a community level. However, the accuracy of CHINS population data is questionable due to the methodology used to collect the data. Hence the population data should be treated with caution. The results of the 1999 and 2001 CHINS are currently available in the publication Housing and Infrastructure in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Communities, Australia (ABS Cat. No. 4710.0) and customised tables can also be produced upon request to the ABS, or accessible via ABS@intranet.

4.9 Health Zone population The Primary Health Care Access Program (PHCAP) is a joint Commonwealth and State/Territory funded program designed to improve access to, and provision of appropriate primary health care services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. In the NT the implementation of PHCAP is the responsibility of the NT Aboriginal Health Forum. The forum is a partnership between the Commonwealth and Territory health departments, the Aboriginal controlled health sector represented through the Aboriginal Medical Services Alliance of the NT (AMSANT), and until 2004 included the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC). The incorporation of 21 Heath Zones as the geographical planning areas has advanced the PHCAP principles of regional planning, co-ordination and local governance for health service delivery. The zones reflect language and cultural factors as well as logistic considerations.6,7

In 2001, the HGP branch with the support of a consultant funded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) completed a project to: • document the major user needs for population estimates, including consideration of the

conceptual issues of primary health care population estimates; • identify and assess potential data sources including ABS collections, data from Aboriginal

communities, DHCS service population list and population data from previous studies; and • produce resident and service population estimates by age, sex and Indigenous status by

Health Zones.

28

mailto:ABS@intranet


The key finding of the project was that the ERP derived from the Census remains the most complete data source for primary care planning purposes. The ERP data provide an independent and comprehensive estimate of the number and distribution of populations across the Northern Territory, and can provide both a basis for the equitable allocation of available resources and a denominator for key health performance measures. The accuracy of the ERP as a proxy for a service population can be enhanced with a more accurate estimation of mobility. However the Census data on mobility is not available at a CD level, and there are also separate concerns about the applicability of the Census mobility questions for many Indigenous people.40

4.10 Service population A service population is - the population that creates a demand for services in a particular location.41 A number of definitions exist and often these are closely aligned with the type of services provided by different service providers. The ABS definition of service population is: ‘all persons who access services and facilities generally provided by a local government area. These may be permanent or temporary residents of the area from which the service is sought, or daytime visitors, overnight or short-term visitors to the area’.42 This definition was formed on the basis of those services and facilities generally provided by a Local Government Area (LGA). Zhao et al (2004) in their report on population estimates for health zones in NT, defined service population as: ‘a population that demands specified good(s) and/or service(s) in a specified area at or over a specified time.40 This definition was constructed on the basis of demand for services rather than access to services. Conceptually the two definitions differ. The target population of particular services varies with demographic and geographic characteristics, which makes the estimation of service populations complex.43 Clearly the operational identification of service populations is complex, and the tendency has been to develop a relatively simple estimates of non-resident population (commuter populations, day trippers, tourists and other overnight visitors) and constrain these to the total usual resident population. To date, the service population have been derived from the administrative lists of service providers. These populations can fluctuate greatly, depending on the tourist season and cultural priorities.

29


References 1 Australian Bureau of Statistics 2004, Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC) 2002, Cat.

No. 1216.0. Canberra, ABS, 2004.

2 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Mesh Blocks (Draft) Digital Boundaries, Australia, 2005, Cat.No.1209,

ABS, Canberra.

3 Gerritsen R, Griffith D, From The Ridiculous to the sublime: Rationalising the Statistical Geography of

the Northern Territory of Australia: A paper presented to the Australian and New Zealand Economic and

Regional Development Conference. Manukau, 2005.

4 The Northern Territory Government Gazette No.G35, 31 August 2005.

5 Northern Territory Government Department of Health and Community Services. Administrative District

Boundaries. Health Gains Planning, unpublished report, Darwin, 2005.

6 Bartlett B, Duncan P. Top End Aboriginal Health Planning Study: A Report to the Top End Regional

Indigenous Health Planning Committee of Northern Territory Aboriginal Health Forum. Plan Health Pty Ltd.

April 2002.

7 Bartlett B, Duncan P, Hardwick. Central Australian Health Planning Study: Final Report. Plan Health Pty

Ltd. 1997.

8 Australian Bureau of Statistics 2004. Standard for Social, Labour and Demographic Variables:

Demographic Variables – Age. Statistical Concepts Library.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/66f306f503e529a5ca25697e0017661f/68afff8107510ef6ca256

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30


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32


Appendix Table A1 Census Place of Enumeration counts for Health Districts, Northern Territory, 2001

2001 Census population counts Health District Counted at

home Visitors within

Australia Overseas

visitors Total

Alice Springs Rural 11 145 2 279 1 278 14 702

Alice Springs Urban 23 296 3 322 1 399 28 176

Barkly 5 112 1 193 215 6 520

Darwin Rural 13 114 2 589 1 098 16 920

Darwin Urban 98 013 11 957 2 963 112 933

East Arnhem 12 255 707 813 13 122

Katherine 15 256 3 310 751 19 492

NT total(a) 178 191 25 357 8 517 211 865 Note: (a) Includes migratory, off-shore and undefined areas. Source: 2001 Census Basic Community Profiles (CDATA 2001), ABS. Cat. No. 201.0.7. Table A2 Census Place of Usual Residence counts for Health Districts, Northern Territory, 2001

2001 Census Population Counts Health District Indigenous non-Indigenous Not stated Total Alice Springs Rural 8 674 2 428 410 11 512

Alice Springs Urban 4 157 19 321 1 590 25 068

Barkly 3 230 1 846 452 5 528

Darwin Rural 9 488 3 363 786 13 637

Darwin Urban 11 609 84 818 6 845 103 272

East Arnhem 7 962 4 508 406 12 876

Katherine 7 559 7 639 982 16 180

NT total(a) 50 845 125 686 11 544 188 075 Note: (a) Includes migratory, off-shore and undefined areas. Source: 2001 Usual Residents Community Profiles (CDATA 2001), ABS. Cat. No. 201.0.7. Table A3 Estimated Resident Population by Indigenous status, Health Districts, Northern Territory, 2001-2004.

2001 2002 2003 2004 Health District Indigenous

non-Indigenous Indigenous



non-Indigenous

Alice Springs Rural 9 715 2 819 9 722 2 828 9 690 2 814 9 744 2 830Alice Springs Urban 5 145 21 718 5 156 21 856 5 147 21 875 5 182 22 050

Barkly 3 283 2 197 3 283 2 218 3 271 2 224 3 284 2 239

Darwin Rural 10 130 3 650 10 115 3 683 10 061 3 699 10 097 3 728Darwin Urban 10 687 96 155 10 680 96 778 10 636 96 865 10 682 97 637

East Arnhem 8 836 5 108 8 827 5 127 8 781 5 127 8 813 5 153

Katherine 9 079 9 246 9 081 9 311 9 040 9 314 9 084 9 390

NT Total 56 875 140 893 56 864 141 801 56 626 141 918 56 886 143 027Notes: (a) The Indigenous ERP for the year 2002 to 2004 was derived using 2001 Census Indigenous population ratio and revised ERP for the years 2002, 2003 and preliminary ERP for the year 2004 published ABS. (Cat.No.3222.0). Source: Based on Estimated Resident Population 30 June 2001 by Age, Sex and Indigenous status (Revised, ABS Unpublished Data), ABS data available on request.

33


Table A4 Estimated Resident Population by Indigenous status, for Urban Centres/Localities, Northern Territory, 2001.

UCL Name Indigenous persons

non-Indigenous persons

Indigenous persons (%)

non-Indigenous persons (%)

Alice Springs Rural Alpurrurulam (L) 377 20 95 5Ampilatwatja (Aherrenge) (L) 257 28 90 10Hermannsburg (L) 466 52 90 10Kaltukatjara (Docker River) (L) 281 29 91 9Kintore (L) 723 22 97 3Nyrripi (L) 267 11 96 4Papunya (L) 265 30 90 10Rural Balance 5 294 1 220 81 19Santa Teresa (L) 537 52 91 9Titjikala (L) 212 21 91 9Willowra (L) 354 18 95 5Yuendumu (L) 645 93 87 13Yulara 37 1 223 3 97Total 9 715 2 819 78 22 Alice Springs Urban Alice Springs 4 020 19 906 17 83Amoonguna (L) 271 - 100 0Rural Balance 854 1812 32 68Total 5 145 21 718 19 81 Barkly Elliott (L) 292 76 79 21Rural Balance 1 125 443 72 28Tennant Creek 1 353 1 649 45 55Warrabri (L) 513 29 95 5Total 3 283 2 197 60 40 Darwin Rural Adelaide River (L) 74 149 33 67Batchelor (L) 261 275 49 51Belyuen (L) 215 6 97 3Cooinda (L) 6 95 6 94Daly River (L) 377 154 71 29Darwin Rural 244 937 21 79Mandorah (L) 16 222 7 93Maningrida 1 606 187 90 10Milikapiti (L) 444 54 89 11Minjilang (L) 202 18 92 8Nguiu 1 359 78 95 5Oenpelli (L) 843 97 90 10Palumpa (L) 400 31 93 7Peppimenarti (L) 206 20 91 9Pirlangimpi (L) 356 34 91 9Port Keats 1 137 111 91 9Rural Balance 2 026 1 164 64 36Warruwi (L) 358 18 95 5Total 10 130 3 650 74 26 Darwin Urban Darwin 6 579 61 979 10 90Howard Springs 232 3 141 7 93Humpty Doo-McMinns Lagoon 378 5 123 7 93Palmerston 2 598 19 290 12 88Rural Balance 766 4 263 15 85Virginia-Bees Creek 134 2 359 5 95Total 10 687 96 155 10 90

34


East Arnhem Alyangula (L) 142 914 13 87Angurugu (L) 814 18 98 2East Arnhem 293 3 507 8 92Galiwinku 1 511 114 93 7Gapuwiyak (L) 669 67 91 9Gunyangara (L) 177 92 66 34Milingimbi (L) 1 037 68 94 6Numbulwar (L) 715 58 92 8Ramingining (L) 614 49 93 7Rural Balance 1 930 68 97 3Umbakumba (L) 387 4 99 1Yirrkala (L) 547 149 79 21Total 8 836 5 108 63 37 Katherine Bamyili (Barunga) (L) 349 17 95 5Beswick (L) 361 26 93 7Borroloola (L) 629 195 76 24Dagaragu-Kalkaringi (L) 598 83 88 12Duck Creek (L) 244 5 98 2Gulin Gulin-Weemol (L) 259 17 94 6Katherine 1 767 4 535 28 72Lajamanu (L) 708 64 92 8Mataranka (L) 35 180 16 84Ngukurr (L) 954 87 92 8Pine Creek (L) 92 327 22 78Rural Balance 2 995 3 600 45 55Timber Creek (L) 88 110 44 56Total 9 079 9 246 50 50 Source: Estimated Resident Population 30 June 2001 by Age, Sex and Indigenous status (Revised, ABS Unpublished Data), ABS data available on request.

35


Table A5 Population projections for Alice Springs Health Districts, Northern Territory, 2002–2022 (a) (b)

Age group 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Alice Springs Rural 0-4 1 227 1 230 1 236 1 259 1 316 1 370 5-9 1 241 1 167 1 181 1 194 1 219 1 273 10-14 1 152 1 250 1 198 1 204 1 221 1 239 15-19 1 133 1 105 1 265 1 219 1 211 1 219 20-24 1 386 1 325 1 285 1 455 1 442 1 438 25-29 1 289 1 336 1 449 1 450 1 587 1 621 30-34 1 130 1 199 1 206 1 337 1 379 1 471 35-39 902 997 1 096 1 063 1 172 1 235 40-44 749 815 878 982 951 1 048 45-49 635 693 751 783 869 844 50-54 569 603 659 734 756 836 55-59 375 455 508 533 607 625 60-64 293 306 344 419 463 530 65-69 189 200 248 251 325 365 70-74 148 145 145 184 177 227 75-79 57 66 70 74 87 88 80-84 43 25 18 18 26 35 85+ 30 33 30 32 33 38 Total 12 548 12 950 13 567 14 191 14 841 15 502

Alice Springs Urban

0-4 2 193 2 041 1 964 1 914 1 885 1 886 5-9 2 154 2 035 1 922 1 843 1 788 1 761 10-14 2 185 2 094 2 020 1 905 1 803 1 756 15-19 1 857 1 739 1 682 1 599 1 520 1 422 20-24 1 820 1 778 1 764 1 762 1 687 1 624 25-29 2 142 1 916 2 018 2 027 2 060 2 022 30-34 2 432 2 213 2 037 2 128 2 168 2 205 35-39 2 422 2 389 2 347 2 144 2 212 2 291 40-44 2 373 2 458 2 386 2 455 2 271 2 291 45-49 2 055 2 276 2 417 2 324 2 448 2 290 50-54 1 699 1 880 2 028 2 209 2 124 2 214 55-59 1 179 1 442 1 571 1 701 1 847 1 819 60-64 678 849 1 094 1 209 1 322 1 448 65-69 394 498 621 802 904 985 70-74 302 284 365 451 596 691 75-79 182 228 203 236 292 411 80-84 143 107 143 152 156 177 85+ 96 94 95 102 119 122 Total 26 306 26 321 26 677 26 963 27 202 27 415 Notes: (a) The SLA population projections are based on DoHA agreed assumptions (see Table 14). (b) The Health Districts are based on following groupings of Statistical Local Area (SLAs): Alice Springs Rural: Alpurrurulam (CGC), Anmatjere (CGC), Arltarlpilta (CGC), Ltyentye Purte (CGC), Peterman, Sandover, Tanami, Tapatjatjaka ( CGC), Wallace Rockhole (CGC), Watiyawanu (CGC), Yuendumu (CGC) Alice Springs Urban: Alice Springs (T) – Larapinta, Alice Springs (T) – Ross, Alice Springs (T) – Stuart, Alice Springs (T) – Heavitree and Alice Springs (T) – Charles.

36


Table A6 Population projections for Barkly Health District, Northern Territory, 2002–2022 (a) (b)

Age group 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Barkly 0-4 602 583 551 528 514 493 5-9 580 526 506 483 465 450 10-14 536 532 488 477 450 432 15-19 538 442 434 410 391 377 20-24 543 528 491 470 463 444 25-29 485 461 501 491 457 447 30-34 500 438 406 430 440 413 35-39 406 432 431 388 402 417 40-44 405 408 402 425 378 385 45-49 352 362 404 367 386 369 50-54 333 356 368 399 366 382 55-59 219 265 280 291 318 291 60-64 172 137 169 193 198 232 65-69 63 111 99 117 142 127 70-74 50 36 57 52 65 77 75-79 32 30 29 41 48 47 80-84 23 20 19 16 23 31 85+ 32 32 26 29 29 33 Total 5 871 5 699 5 661 5 607 5 535 5 447 Notes: (a) The SLA population projections are based on DoHA agreed assumptions (see Table 14). (b) The Health District estimates are based on following groupings of Statistical Local Area (SLAs): Barkly: Elliott District (CGC),

Tableland, Tennant, and Tennant Balance

37


Table A7 Population projections for Katherine and East Arnhem Health Districts, Northern Territory, 2002–2022 (a) (b)

Age Group 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Katherine 0-4 1 772 1 884 1 791 1 742 1 715 1 717 5-9 1 749 1 610 1 683 1 629 1 580 1 550 10-14 1 577 1 509 1 367 1 397 1 362 1 301 15-19 1 416 1 346 1 320 1 236 1 216 1 193 20-24 1 419 1 475 1 469 1 458 1 427 1 383 25-29 1 511 1 428 1 522 1 513 1 524 1 531 30-34 1 609 1 474 1 372 1 449 1 482 1 491 35-39 1 386 1 357 1 404 1 289 1 322 1 358 40-44 1 244 1 316 1 286 1 356 1 264 1 262 45-49 1 020 1 152 1 257 1 212 1 305 1 233 50-54 850 936 1 020 1 128 1 101 1 175 55-59 624 774 846 921 1 021 1 036 60-64 444 498 639 716 761 842 65-69 269 350 411 517 572 621 70-74 185 175 225 282 354 428 75-79 112 124 109 137 175 219 80-84 58 60 64 61 75 98 85+ 44 51 52 59 62 69 Total 17 289 17 519 17 837 18 102 18 318 18 507

East Arnhem 0-4 1 577 1 635 1 579 1 552 1 580 1 628 5-9 1 527 1 517 1 633 1 587 1 554 1 583 10-14 1 371 1 344 1 346 1 451 1 432 1 404 15-19 1 095 1 074 1 133 1 103 1 173 1 196 20-24 1 126 1 116 1 037 1 100 1 113 1 154 25-29 1 184 1 088 1 185 1 131 1 174 1 192 30-34 1 278 1 251 1 133 1 226 1 199 1 253 35-39 1 193 1 141 1 212 1 092 1 176 1 203 40-44 1 068 1 124 1 088 1 179 1 075 1 095 45-49 840 937 1 029 1 011 1 089 1 031 50-54 707 801 870 982 989 1 050 55-59 442 553 660 701 814 831 60-64 302 322 370 476 503 592 65-69 118 209 277 308 395 414 70-74 49 90 140 196 220 285 75-79 28 27 43 82 121 122 80-84 21 16 13 16 36 66 85+ 21 23 21 22 20 25 Total 13 947 14 268 14 769 15 215 15 663 16 124 Notes: (a) The SLA population projections are based on DoHA agreed assumptions (see Table 14). (b) The Health District estimates are based on the following groupings of Statistical Local Area (SLAs):

Katherine: Barunga Manyallaluk (CGC), Binjari (CGC), Borroloola (CGC), Daguragu (CGC), Elsey, Gulf, Jilkminggan (CGC), Katherine, Lajamanu (CGC), Mataranka (CGC), Pine Creek (CGC), Timber Creek (CGC), Victoria, Walangeri Ngumpinku (CGC), Wugularr (CGC), Yugul Mangi (CGC) East Arnhem: Angurugu (CGC), East Arnhem, Groote, Marngarr (CGC), Nhulunbuy, Numbulwar, Numburindi (CGC)

38


Table A8 Population projections for Darwin Health Districts, Northern Territory, 2002–2022 (a) (b)

Age Group 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Darwin Rural 0-4 1 617 1 660 1 582 1 527 1 554 1 560 5-9 1 653 1 543 1 633 1 571 1 520 1 540 10-14 1 371 1 393 1 357 1 390 1 367 1 335 15-19 1 229 1 210 1 205 1 219 1 216 1 203 20-24 1 377 1 296 1 278 1 295 1 319 1 278 25-29 1 304 1 266 1 283 1 278 1 301 1 327 30-34 1 315 1 197 1 161 1 203 1 209 1 249 35-39 1 139 1 232 1 234 1 166 1 220 1 252 40-44 904 1 044 1 134 1 179 1 105 1 155 45-49 770 786 924 986 1 063 996 50-54 671 731 751 848 875 959 55-59 496 585 647 686 766 792 60-64 384 431 512 577 615 670 65-69 198 307 354 430 475 511 70-74 129 156 211 260 321 349 75-79 63 68 87 113 162 207 80-84 24 26 35 51 59 94 85+ 35 30 31 33 41 54 Total 14 679 14 961 15 419 15 812 16 188 16 531

Darwin Urban 0-4 8 659 8 765 8 871 9 090 9 555 10 090 5-9 8 190 8 491 8 808 8 902 9 090 9 529 10-14 7 990 8 311 8 490 8 806 8 945 9 110 15-19 7 572 8 188 8 732 8 913 9 191 9 344 20-24 8 214 8 753 9 337 10 038 10 328 10 568 25-29 9 812 9 770 10 619 11 171 11 943 12 441 30-34 10 257 10 077 10 115 11 063 11 701 12 456 35-39 9 459 9 891 10 340 10 098 10 977 11 756 40-44 8 980 8 916 9 214 10 034 9 748 10 402 45-49 7 926 8 419 8 827 8 877 9 845 9 680 50-54 7 396 7 604 8 034 8 702 8 685 9 564 55-59 5 027 6 490 6 844 7 242 7 978 8 118 60-64 3 275 4 091 5 410 5 979 6 342 7 031 65-69 1 829 2 489 3 225 4 242 4 903 5 231 70-74 1 277 1 337 1 783 2 368 3 119 3 784 75-79 793 941 961 1 228 1 662 2 168 80-84 397 553 669 691 846 1 154 85+ 320 367 466 599 681 806 Total 107 373 113 453 120 745 128 043 135 539 143 232 Notes: (a) The SLA population projections are based on DoHA agreed assumptions (see Table 14). (b) The Health District estimates are based on the following groupings of Statistical Local Area (SLAs):

Darwin Rural: Alligator, Bathurst, Belyuen (CGC), Coomalie, Coomalie and Cox-Finniss, Cox-Finiss, Cox Peninsula (CGC), Daly, Jabiru, Kunbarllanjnja (CGC), Nauiyu Nambiyu (CGC), Sth Alligator, Thamarrurr (CGC), Tiwi Islands (CGC), West Arnhem. Darwin Urban: Alawa, Anula, Bakewell, Brinkin, City – Inner, City – Remainder, Coconut Grove, Driver, Durack, East Arm, Fannie Bay, Gray, Jingili, Karama, Larrakeyah, Leanyer, Lee Point-Leanyer Swamp, Litchfield (S) - Pt A, Litchfield (S) - Pt B, Ludmilla, Malak, Marrara, Millner, Moil, Moulden, Nakara, Narrows, Nightcliff, Palmerston (C) Bal, Parap, Rapid Creek, Stuart Park, The Gardens, Tiwi, Wagaman, Wanguri, Winnellie, Woodroffe and Wulagi.

39


Table A9 Productivity Commission population projections, Northern Territory, 2002-2051 (a) (b) Indigenous non-Indigenous Both Groups

Year Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total2002 28 894 28 832 57 726 75 633 65 306 140 939 104 527 94 138 198 6652003 29 313 29 287 58 600 75 180 64 764 139 944 104 493 94 051 198 5442004 29 741 29 753 59 494 75 432 64 987 140 419 105 173 94 740 199 9132005 30 168 30 217 60 385 75 585 65 148 140 733 105 753 95 365 201 1182006 30 592 30 682 61 274 75 786 65 340 141 126 106 378 96 022 202 4002007 31 017 31 144 62 161 76 032 65 557 141 589 107 049 96 701 203 7502008 31 436 31 601 63 037 76 310 65 792 142 102 107 746 97 393 205 1392009 31 856 32 056 63 912 76 620 66 038 142 658 108 476 98 094 206 5702010 32 273 32 509 64 782 76 953 66 296 143 249 109 226 98 805 208 0312011 32 684 32 962 65 646 77 301 66 561 143 862 109 985 99 523 209 5082012 33 095 33 417 66 512 77 666 66 833 144 499 110 761 100 250 211 0112013 33 504 33 870 67 374 78 047 67 114 145 161 111 551 100 984 212 5352014 33 909 34 320 68 229 78 439 67 400 145 839 112 348 101 720 214 0682015 34 310 34 761 69 071 78 844 67 691 146 535 113 154 102 452 215 6062016 34 706 35 198 69 904 79 254 67 991 147 245 113 960 103 189 217 1492017 35 104 35 633 70 737 79 667 68 284 147 951 114 771 103 917 218 6882018 35 500 36 067 71 567 80 082 68 582 148 664 115 582 104 649 220 2312019 35 891 36 492 72 383 80 495 68 873 149 368 116 386 105 365 221 7512020 36 274 36 912 73 186 80 917 69 167 150 084 117 191 106 079 223 2702021 36 641 37 324 73 965 81 337 69 457 150 794 117 978 106 781 224 7592022 37 002 37 730 74 732 81 755 69 742 151 497 118 757 107 472 226 2292023 37 357 38 129 75 486 82 169 70 019 152 188 119 526 108 148 227 6742024 37 704 38 522 76 226 82 575 70 291 152 866 120 279 108 813 229 0922025 38 048 38 905 76 953 82 977 70 562 153 539 121 025 109 467 230 4922026 38 385 39 276 77 661 83 365 70 832 154 197 121 750 110 108 231 8582027 38 712 39 638 78 350 83 746 71 089 154 835 122 458 110 727 233 1852028 39 028 39 988 79 016 84 119 71 346 155 465 123 147 111 334 234 4812029 39 335 40 331 79 666 84 485 71 596 156 081 123 820 111 927 235 7472030 39 632 40 663 80 295 84 841 71 843 156 684 124 473 112 506 236 9792031 39 922 40 980 80 902 85 198 72 084 157 282 125 120 113 064 238 1842032 40 199 41 291 81 490 85 553 72 329 157 882 125 752 113 620 239 3722033 40 462 41 592 82 054 85 904 72 569 158 473 126 366 114 161 240 5272034 40 721 41 884 82 605 86 249 72 813 159 062 126 970 114 697 241 6672035 40 982 42 176 83 158 86 592 73 057 159 649 127 574 115 233 242 8072036 41 242 42 468 83 710 86 934 73 306 160 240 128 176 115 774 243 9502037 41 502 42 755 84 257 87 277 73 558 160 835 128 779 116 313 245 0922038 41 759 43 030 84 789 87 617 73 809 161 426 129 376 116 839 246 2152039 42 011 43 304 85 315 87 955 74 061 162 016 129 966 117 365 247 3312040 42 255 43 576 85 831 88 292 74 310 162 602 130 547 117 886 248 4332041 42 499 43 840 86 339 88 631 74 558 163 189 131 130 118 398 249 5282042 42 739 44 099 86 838 88 965 74 806 163 771 131 704 118 905 250 6092043 42 979 44 353 87 332 89 302 75 054 164 356 132 281 119 407 251 6882044 43 215 44 602 87 817 89 645 75 302 164 947 132 860 119 904 252 7642045 43 446 44 846 88 292 89 988 75 555 165 543 133 434 120 401 253 8352046 43 674 45 084 88 758 90 331 75 799 166 130 134 005 120 883 254 8882047 43 897 45 315 89 212 90 668 76 048 166 716 134 565 121 363 255 9282048 44 115 45 541 89 656 91 009 76 294 167 303 135 124 121 835 256 9592049 44 325 45 760 90 085 91 345 76 540 167 885 135 670 122 300 257 9702050 44 528 45 972 90 500 91 685 76 787 168 472 136 213 122 759 258 9722051 44 730 46 177 90 907 92 017 77 029 169 046 136 747 123 206 259 953Notes: (a) The population projections by Indigenous and non-Indigenous sub-populations of the Northern Territory are based on PC-NTALT

model (see Table 13). (b) The population projection figures derived based PC-NTALT model are experimental. Populations that are particularly exposed to

changing circumstances, such as the Indigenous population, are difficult to model. There are also substantial modelling difficulties associated with net migration patterns for the relatively mobile non-Indigenous Northern Territory population.

Source: Productivity Commission, 2005, Economic Implications of an Ageing Australia, Research Report, Canberra.

40


Table A10 Estimated Resident Population for Health Zones, Northern Territory, 2001 Health Zone code

Health Zone

Indigenous non-

Indigenous Total

Proportion of NT Indigenous

population (%)

1 Tiwi 2 287 168 2 455 42 Darwin 11 407 97 545 108 952 20.13 Top End West 2 894 874 3 768 5.14 West Arnhem 2 289 1 368 3 657 45 Maningrida 2 126 198 2 324 3.76 North East Arnhem 6 392 4 108 10 500 11.27 South East Arnhem 2 444 1 000 3 444 4.38 Katherine East 5 360 7 772 13 132 9.49 Katherine West 2 233 635 2 868 3.910 South East Top End 1 300 491 1 791 2.3

Top End 38 732 114 159 152 891 68.1 11 Northern Barkly 521 317 838 0.912 Central Barkly 1 686 1 780 3 466 313 Southern Barkly 995 88 1 083 1.714 Warlpiri 1 624 380 2 004 2.915 Anmatjere 972 107 1 079 1.716 Alyawarra-Anmatjere 1 219 103 1 322 2.117 Eastern Arrernte-Alyawarra 744 169 913 1.318 Luritja-Pintupi 1 458 116 1 574 2.619 Western Arrernte 1 284 92 1 376 2.320 Alice Springs 6 205 21 938 28 143 10.921 Pitjantjatjara 1 435 1 644 3 079 2.5

Central Australia 18 143 26 734 44 877 31.9

Northern Territory 56 875 140 893 197 768 100Source: Zhao Y Paice J Murtagh D Lee H and Guthridge S. Population Estimates for Indigenous Health Zones in the Northern Territory. Department of Health and Community Services Unpublished Report Northern Territory 2002.

41


Selected Health Gains Planning publications Information Chondur R, Guthridge S, Lee H. Socio-economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) of Administrative Health Districts and Urban Centres/Localities in the Northern Territory. Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2005. Health Economics Beaver C, Zhao Y. Investment Analysis of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Primary Health Care Program in the Northern Territory. Department of Health and Ageing, Australian Government, Canberra, 2004.

Zhao Y, Guthridge S, Magnus A, Vos T. Burden of Disease and Injury in Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Populations in the Northern Territory. MJA 2004: 180:498-502, 2004

Byron P, Zhao Y, Guthridge SL, Brailsford R, Stacey F, Parkinson J. Medicare and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme Usage Patterns in the Northern Territory 1993/94 – 2003/04. Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2005.

You J, Guthridge S. Mortality, Morbidity & Health Care Costs of Injury in the Northern Territory 1991-2001. Health Gains Planning, Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2005.

Zhao Y, Hanssens P, Byron P, Guthridge S. Cost Estimates of Primary Health Care Activities for Remote Aboriginal Communities in the Northern Territory. Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2006.

Epidemiology Dempsey KE, Condon JR. Mortality in the Northern Territory 1979-1997. Territory Health Services, Darwin.

Measey ML, d’Espaignet ET, Cunningham J. Mortality and Morbidity Attributable to Smoking – Northern Territory 1986-1995. Territory Health Services, Darwin, 1998.

Markey PG, d’Espaignet ET, Condon JR, Woods M. Northern Territory Midwives Collection- Trends in the Health of Mothers and Babies Northern Territory 1986-1995. Territory Health Services, Darwin, 1998.

Condon JR Warman G Arnold L The Health and Welfare of Territorians. Territory Health Services, Darwin, 2001.

Measey ML, d’Espaignet ET, Dal Grande E. Northern Territory Health and Wellbeing Survey Non -Indigenous Population 2000. Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2002.

Zhao Y, Condon JR, Garling LS. Cancer Incidence and Mortality Northern Territory 1991-2001. NT Cancer Registry, Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2004.

Villeseche A, Li SQ, Measey MA. Northern Territory Physical Activity Survey 2003 Non-Indigenous Population. Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2004.

Li SQ, Guthridge SL. Mortality in the Northern Territory 1981-2000 Part 1: Key Indicators and Overview. Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2005. Carson BE, Guthridge SL, Li SQ, Measey ML. Growing up in the Territory: Parent Survey. Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2006. Jones C, Zhang X, Dempsey KE, Schwarz N, Guthridge SL. The Health and Wellbeing of Northern Territory Women: From the Desert to the Sea. Department of Health and Community Services, Darwin, 2005.

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