population created by ms. mcfadden. thomas malthus -english economist and demographer 1798:...
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POPULATION
Created by Ms. McFadden
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Thomas Malthus
-English economist and demographer
1798: “Principal of Population”Positive Population checks - wars, disease,
famine
Negative Population checks- family planning, later marriage, celebacy
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024681012141618
1stQtr
2ndQtr
3rdQtr
4thQtr
5thQtr
6thQtr
Population
FoodResources
“Doomsday”
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However, according to his predictions none of us would be here today.
Things he did not take into account:
Direct Substitution- natural gas for oil
Tecnological Substitution- innovative farming machinery, Green Revolution, genetic engineering
Lifestyle substitution- value of people are changing, want more than basic necessities
Recycling- cuts back on resource consumption
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Still some environmentalists (Paul Ehrlic, William Catton) believe we will reach a doomsday if nothing is done to control population.
• 15 people are born every second• This means almost 1 billion are born
every year• Today the population is 6.3 billion +• By 2050 this is expected to double.
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The Problem…
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• William Catton coined the term “carrying capacity”. This is defined as the amount of people that the land/resources can support. This is why doomsday may still happen----we are exceeding our carrying capacity!!!!!!!
Death rate is decreasing due to: cures/eradication for diseases like smallpox and malaria, ORT, improvements in communications/transportationAs a result….there are more people on the same area of land!
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Where are the population problems?
• Developing/LDCs/Third World countries
• India, Most African countries, Malaysia
• Stage 2 of the DTM
• Haven’t had technological changes, lifestyle changes or economic improvement.
• Result = Increasing stress on these environments
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How can these populations be controlled?
EducationEquality for womenFamily planning
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A model for the world….CHINA
Present Population = 1.3 billion (20% of the world’s population)
Problem – only 11% of China’s land is arable and this has already been in cultivation for many years.
Therefore, the land can not support many more people than what exists now.
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The Government of China predicted this and issued a birth control policy in 1971 called “wan xi shao”
This means “later, longer, fewer”
Later marriages- mid 20’s for women and late 20’s for men
Longer intervals between births- 3-4 years between children
Fewer children- 2 in urban, 3 in rural
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1979-One Child Policy-Couples are given “planned birth certificates” (permission
to have a child)-Used advertising campaigns-Spys in workplace and community-Strong pressure to confirm Rewards Punishments-free medical care -no medical care-increased wage and bonuses -decreased wage- free vacations for sterilizations/abortions -forced sterilizations/abortions-preferential housing-free daycare -benefits cease -free tuition for children -no university acceptance -extra pension income -decreased pension-guaranteed job when graduate -pay back financial benefits from first
child-extra maternity leave
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Demographic Transition Model
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•File •File history •File links
ChinaDemography.svg (SVG file, nominally 874 × 591 pixels, file size: 30 KB)
China’s Population
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Problems with this policy:
Infringement of Human rights
Sexual Discrimination- preference to male children has lead to female infanticide and abandonment, upset sex ratio(300 000 more boys than girls are born in China each year), “little emperors”.
Possible labour shortage; not enough children to support parents and grandparents.
Personal/Emotional Distress-from forced sterilizations/abortions, many couples want a boy and a girl
80% of China’s population is rural so extra hands are needed to help with rice/farm production.
Couples living together who aren’t married/having children
GETncm/justsaycust-recrate-itemcommunittg/stores/dtg/stores/d-favorite-listruejust-say-no
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Relaxing the policy:
• Rural areas, couples are now allowed to have another child after 4 years if the first is a girl
• Cash bonuses higher for couples with female baby
• Girls can now support parents in old age and have jobs and possessions handed down to them.
• Old age pension is increased for compliance• Ultrasounds to find out sex is prohibited
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However, still amazing….
• Birth rate mid 60’s: 44 per 1000
• Birth rate by 1980: 18 per 1000
• Birth rate today: 14 per thousand
No other country has decreased their birth rate so successfully or quickly.