population change in texas: implications for human and socioeconomic resources in the 21st century
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Population Change in Texas: Implications for Human and Socioeconomic Resources in the 21st Century. by Steve H. Murdock Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research The University of Texas at San Antonio. Major Demographic Trends Affecting the Future. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Population Change in Texas:Implications for Human and Socioeconomic
Resources in the 21st Century
by
Steve H. Murdock
Institute for Demographic and
Socioeconomic Research
The University of Texas at San Antonio
Major Demographic Trends Affecting the Future
• Change in Rates and Sources of Population Growth
• Increase in the Non-Anglo Population
• Aging of the Population
Total Population Change
Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850-2005
Total Population Percent Change
Year* Texas U.S. Texas U.S.
1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.61870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.61880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.01890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.51900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.71910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.01920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.91930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.11940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.21950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.51960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.01970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.41980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.41990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.82000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.22005 22,859,968 296,410,404 9.6 5.3
* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2005 are as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for datesindicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texasat San Antonio
Year* Texas U.S. Texas U.S.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for datesindicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2005
Percent ChangeDue to
Numerical Natural Net Percent Natural Net
Year* Population Change Increase Migration Change Increase Migration 1950 7,711,194 — — — — — —
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.23 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.88 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.08 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.38 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.76 49.65 50.35
2005 22,859,968 2,008,148 1,155,182 852,966 9.63 57.52 42.48
* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Value for 2005 is for July1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the TexasState Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms in the United States, 1990-2000
PercentNumerical Population
1990 2000 Change ChangeState Population* Population* 1990-2000 1990-2000
California 29,760,021 33,871,648 4,111,627 13.8
Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8
Florida 12,937,926 15,982,378 3,044,452 23.5
Georgia 6,478,216 8,186,453 1,708,237 26.4
Arizona 3,665,228 5,130,632 1,465,404 40.0
North Carolina 6,628,637 8,049,313 1,420,676 21.4
Washington 4,866,692 5,894,121 1,027,429 21.1
Colorado 3,294,394 4,301,261 1,006,867 30.6
Illinois 11,430,602 12,419,293 988,691 8.6
New York 17,990,455 18,976,457 986,002 5.5
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the yearindicated
Numerical Percent2000 2005 Change Change
State Population* Population* 2000-2005 2000-2005
California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260,499 6.7
Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6
Florida 15,982,378 17,789,864 1,807,486 11.3
Georgia 8,186,453 9,072,576 886,123 10.8
Arizona 5,130,632 5,939,292 808,660 15.8
North Carolina 8,049,313 8,683,242 633,929 7.9
Virginia 7,078,515 7,567,465 488,950 6.9
Nevada 1,998,257 2,414,807 416,550 20.8
Washington 5,894,121 6,287,759 393,638 6.7
Colorado 4,301,261 4,665,177 363,916 8.5
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio
California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260,499 6.7
Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at
Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms in the United States, 2000-2005
Ten Fastest Growing States in Percentage Terms in the United States, 1990-2000
PercentNumerical Population
1990 2000 Change ChangeState Population* Population* 1990-2000 1990-2000
Nevada 1,201,833 1,998,257 796,424 66.3
Arizona 3,665,228 5,130,632 1,465,404 40.0
Colorado 3,294,394 4,301,261 1,006,867 30.6
Utah 1,722,850 2,233,169 510,319 29.6
Idaho 1,006,749 1,293,953 287,204 28.5
Georgia 6,478,216 8,186,453 1,708,237 26.4
Florida 12,937,926 15,982,378 3,044,452 23.5
Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8
North Carolina 6,628,637 8,049,313 1,420,676 21.4
Washington 4,866,692 5,894,121 1,027,429 21.1 * Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the year
indicated
PercentNumerical Population
2000 2005 Change ChangeState Population* Population* 2000-2005 2000-2005
Nevada 1,998,257 2,414,807 416,550 20.8
Arizona 5,130,632 5,939,292 808,660 15.8
Florida 15,982,378 17,789,864 1,807,486 11.3
Georgia 8,186,453 9,072,576 886,123 10.8
Utah 2,233,169 2,469,585 236,416 10.6
Idaho 1,293,953 1,429,096 135,143 10.4
Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6
Colorado 4,301,261 4,665,177 363,916 8.5
North Carolina 8,049,313 8,683,242 633,929 7.9
Delaware 783,600 843,524 59,924 7.6
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at
Ten Fastest Growing States in Percentage Terms in the United States, 2000-2005
Ten Largest States in United States by Population Size in 2000 Ranked by Population Size in 2000
Numerical Percent1990 2000 Change Change
State Population* Population* 1990-2000 1990-2000
California 29,760,021 33,871,648 4,111,627 13.8
Texas 16,986,510 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8
New York 17,990,455 18,976,457 986,002 5.5
Florida 12,937,926 15,982,378 3,044,452 23.5
Illinois 11,430,602 12,419,293 988,691 8.6
Pennsylvania 11,881,643 12,281,054 399,411 3.4
Ohio 10,847,115 11,353,140 506,025 4.7
Michigan 9,295,297 9,938,444 643,147 6.9
New Jersey 7,730,188 8,414,350 684,162 8.9
Georgia 6,478,216 8,186,453 1,708,237 26.4
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the yearindicated
Numerical Percent2000 2005 Change Change
State Population* Population* 2000-2005 2000-2005
California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260,499 6.7
Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6
New York 18,976,457 19,254,630 278,173 1.5
Florida 15,982,378 17,789,864 1,807,486 11.3
Illinois 12,419,293 12,763,371 344,078 2.8
Pennsylvania 12,281,054 12,429,616 148,562 1.2
Ohio 11,353,140 11,464,042 110,902 1.0
Michigan 9,938,444 10,120,860 182,416 1.8
Georgia 8,186,453 9,072,576 886,123 10.8
New Jersey 8,414,350 8,717,925 303,575 3.6
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio
California 33,871,648 36,132,147 2,260,499 6.7
Texas 20,851,820 22,859,968 2,008,148 9.6
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 andestimates for July 1 for 2005.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at
Ten Largest States in United States by PopulationSize in 2000 Ranked by Population Size in 2005
Numerical Population Change by Components of Change in the United States and Selected States,
1990-2000 and 2000-2005United NewStates Arkansas Louisiana Mexico Oklahoma Texas
1990-2000
Numerical Change 32,630,981 322,776 247,150 303,977 305,078 3,865,485
Natural Increase 17,081,253 93,014 286,697 153,800 150,386 1,922,044
Domestic Migration 0 218,560 -67,157 108,782 123,423 1,166,570
International Migration 15,549,728 11,202 27,610 41,395 31,269 776,871
2000-2005
Numerical Change 14,988,498 105,754 54,652 109,338 97,230 2,008,148
Natural Increase 8,651,861 52,214 129,889 74,397 80,753 1,155,182
Domestic Migration 2,696 31,593 -95,411 6,967 -20,069 189,805
International Migration 6,333,941 21,947 20,174 27,974 36,546 663,161
Percent of Population Change by Components of Change in the United States and Selected States, 1990-2000 and 2000-2005
United New States Arkansas Louisiana Mexico Oklahoma Texas
1990-2000
Numerical Change 32,630,981 322,776 247,150 303,977 305,078 3,865,485
Percent Natural Increase 52.3 28.8 116.0 50.6 49.3 49.7
Percent Domestic Migration 0.0 67.7 -27.2 35.8 40.5 30.2
Percent International Migration 47.7 3.5 11.2 13.6 10.2 20.1
2000-2005
Numerical Change 14,988,498 105,754 54,652 109,338 97,230 2,008,148
Percent Natural Increase 57.7 49.3 237.7 68.0 83.0 57.5
Percent Domestic Migration 0.0 29.9 -174.6 6.4 -20.6 9.5
Percent International Migration 42.3 20.8 36.9 25.6 37.6 33.0
Population Change by Components of Change in the San Antonio Metropolitan
Area Compared to the State and Selected Areas, 1990-2000 and 2000-2004 Dallas - Houston – Austin - San Antonio Ft Worth- Baytown - Round Rock State of Metropolitan Arlington Sugarland Metropolitan Texas Area Metropolitan
Area Area Metropolitan Area Area
1990-2000 Numerical Change 3,865,485 303,958 1,172,250 948,174 403,536 Natural Increase 1,922,044 150,894 505,595 500,630 112,314 Domestic Migration 1,166,570 111,518 472,931 210,530 260,833 International Migration 776,871 41,546 193,724 237,014 30,389 2000-2004 Numerical Change 1,638,202 142,347 538,712 465,036 162,508 Natural Increase 930,519 70,302 267,470 238,579 66,852 Domestic Migration 149,679 49,934 74,881 49,000 55,700
International Migration 558,004 22,111 196,361 177,457 39,956
Population Change by Components of Change in the San Antonio Metropolitan
Area Compared to the State and Selected Areas, 1990-2000 and 2000-2004 Dallas - Houston – Austin - San Antonio Ft Worth Baytown - Round Rock State of Metropolitan Metropolitan Sugarland Metropolitan Texas Area Area Metropolitan Area Area 1990-2000 Numerical Change 3,865,485 303,958 1,172,250 948,174 403,536 Percent Natural Increase 49.7 49.6 43.2 52.8 27.9 Percent Domestic Migration 30.2 36.7 40.3 22.2 64.6 Percent International Migration 20.1 13.7 16.5 25.0 7.5 2000-2004 Numerical Change 1,638,202 142,347 538,712 465,036 162,508 Percent Natural Increase 56.58 49.4 49.6 51.3 41.1 Percent Domestic Migration 9.1 35.1 13.9 10.5 34.3 Percent International Migration 34.1 15.5 36.5 38.2 24.6
Population Change in Texas Counties, 1990-2000
Source: Texas State Data Center
Percent Change 2000-2003
< 0.0% (n=68)
0.0 - 9.9% (n=61)
10.0 - 21.9% (n=66)
22.0 - 86.2% (n=59)
Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2003
Source: Texas State Data Center
Percent Change 2000-2003
< 0.0% (n=98)
0.0 - 1.9% (n=50)
2.0 - 5.4% (n=53)
5.5 - 28.2% (n=53)
Percent Change 2000-2004
< 0.0% (n=103)
0.0 - 1.9% (n=39)
2.0 - 5.4% (n=51)
5.5 - 35.2% (n=61)
Population Change in Texas Counties, 2000-2004
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2004 County Estimates
Racial/Ethnic Change in Texas
Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups
Texas Texas ComparisonGroup Value Rank Areas
By Size in 2000
Anglo 11,074,716 3 California; 17.0 millionNew York; 12.5 million
Black 2,421,653 2 New York; 2.9 million
Hispanic 6,669,666 2 California; 11.0 million
Other 685,785 4 California; 4.2 millionNew York; 1.2 millionHawaii; 733,000
Texas Texas ComparisonGroup Value Rank Areas
By Numerical Change, 1990-2000
Anglo 783,036 2 Florida; 1.1 million
Black 445,293 3 Florida; 665,000Georgia; 627,000
Hispanic 2,329,761 2 California; 3.3 million
Other 307,220 3 California; 1.2 millionNew York; 493,000
Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups
Anglo Population For States in the United States in 1990 and 2000 Ranked by Total
Population Size in 2000
1990 2000 Numerical PercentAnglo Anglo Change Change
State Population Population 1990-2000 1990-2000
California 17,029,126 16,393,491 -635,635 -3.73Texas 10,291,680 11,074,716 783,036 7.61New York 12,460,189 11,921,371 -538,818 -4.32
Florida 9,475,326 10,568,868 1,093,542 11.54Illinois 8,550,208 8,514,486 -35,722 -0.42
Pennsylvania 10,422,058 10,373,049 -49,009 -0.47Ohio 9,444,622 9,604,550 159,928 1.69
Michigan 7,649,951 7,906,629 256,678 3.36New Jersey 5,718,966 5,625,346 -93,620 -1.64
Georgia 4,543,425 5,170,762 627,337 13.81
Texas Texas ComparisonGroup Value Rank Areas
By Percent of Total Population in 2000
Anglo 53.1 47 Ahead of Hawaii; 30.1Ahead of New Mexico; 45.7Ahead of California; 48.4
Black 11.6 18 Highest is Mississippi; 36.4Lowest is Montana; 0.4
Hispanic 32.0 3 New Mexico; 42.1California; 32.4
Other 3.3 22 Highest is Hawaii; 60.5Lowest is West Virginia; 0.9
Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups
Numerical Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000
941,383
283,818
1,354,081
178,037
783,036
445,293
2,329,761
307,220
Anglo Black Hispanic Other0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1980-1990 1990-2000
Percent Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 in Texas
10.077.61
16.77
22.53
45.35
53.68
88.78
81.15
1980-1990 1990-20000
20
40
60
80
100Percent Change
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
Proportion of Net Population Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group in
Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000
34.14
20.26
10.29 11.52
49.11
60.27
6.467.95
1980-1990 1990-20000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
Numerical Percent Percent of2000 2004 Change Change Population
Race/ Census Estimated 2000- 2000-Ethnicity Population Population 2004 2004 2000 2004
Anglo 11,074,716 11,222,394 147,678 1.3 53.1 49.9
Black 2,421,653 2,567,841 146,188 6.0 11.6 11.4
Hispanic 6,669,666 7,848,698 1,179,032 17.7 32.0 34.9
Other 685,785 851,089 165,304 24.1 3.3 3.8
Total 20,851,820 22,490,022 1,638,202 7.9 100.0 100.0
Source: Texas State Data Center, Institute for Demographic and SocioeconomicResearch, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Population Change by Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000‑2004
Major Changes in Population Composition(Characteristics)
• Age
Median Age in the United States and Texas, 1900-2000
22.924.1
25.326.5
2930.1 29.5
28.130
32.9
35.3
18.720.2
2223.7
26.827.9
27 26.428
30.832.3
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
10
20
30
40Median Age
United States Texas
Percent Change in Population by Age Group in the United States and Texas, 1990-2000
13.7
1.55.3
49.4
14.812
21.7
16.3 15.3
60.3
2420.7
<18 18-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Age Groups
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Percent Change
United States Texas
Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2000
39.541.6
45.0 45.043.1 44.4
47.8
53.0
57.260.2
63.566.4 67.1
72.6
44.041.3
38.0 38.440.5
38.635.3
30.526.7
24.222.4
20.6 20.316.7
< 5
year
s
5 to
9 y
ears
10 to
14
year
s
15 to
19
year
s
20 to
24
year
s
25 to
29
year
s
30 to
34
year
s
35 to
39
year
s
40 to
44
year
s
45 to
49
year
s
50 to
54
year
s
55 to
59
year
s
60 to
64
year
s
65 +
yea
rs0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0Percent
Anglo Hispanic
Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2040*
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
17.719.3 19.9 20.3 19.8 19.3 19.4 20.5 20.6 21.9
25.3 26.5 27.2
39.8
69.967.8 66.5 65.5 66.0 66.8 66.4
64.362.6
60.6
56.7 55.252.3
37.1
< 5 y
ears
5 to
9 y
ears
10 to
14
year
s
15 to
19
year
s
20 to
24
year
s
25 to
29
year
s
30 to
34
year
s
35 to
39
year
s
40 to
44
year
s
45 to
49
year
s
50 to
54
year
s
55 to
59
year
s
60 to
64
year
s
65 +
yea
rs0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0Percent
Anglo Hispanic
PROJECTIONS
Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total
2000 11,074,716 2,421,653 6,669,666 685,785 20,851,820
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2010 11,331,893 2,627,284 8,060,578 783,204 22,802,9592020 11,381,151 2,771,391 9,336,524 841,641 24,330,7072030 11,171,425 2,823,276 10,576,281 878,111 25,449,0932040 10,733,074 2,796,626 11,662,262 893,139 26,085,101
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
2010 11,533,980 2,754,737 9,080,466 961,460 24,330,6432020 11,796,479 3,052,412 11,882,993 1,273,908 28,005,7922030 11,789,292 3,268,611 15,140,088 1,632,588 31,830,5792040 11,525,083 3,403,176 18,804,297 2,028,603 35,761,159
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2010 11,740,016 2,888,449 10,252,219 1,177,909 26,058,5932020 12,227,555 3,361,702 15,226,371 1,921,057 32,736,6852030 12,442,104 3,783,657 21,871,382 3,020,447 41,117,5902040 12,376,303 4,140,670 30,604,621 4,585,895 51,707,489
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2002
2010 11,587,971 2,826,849 9,877,268 1,117,442 25,409,5302020 11,908,234 3,217,037 14,090,715 1,726,191 30,942,1772030 11,960,333 3,539,340 19,449,030 2,569,996 37,518,6992040 11,749,690 3,786,341 26,153,290 3,698,715 45,388,036
Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total
Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2000-2010 2.3 8.5 20.9 14.2 9.42010-2020 0.4 5.5 15.8 7.5 6.72020-2030 -1.8 1.9 13.3 4.3 4.62030-2040 -3.9 -0.9 10.3 1.7 2.52000-2040 -3.1 15.5 74.9 30.2 25.1
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
2000-2010 4.1 13.8 36.1 40.2 16.72010-2020 2.3 10.8 30.9 32.5 15.12020-2030 -0.1 7.1 27.4 28.2 13.72030-2040 -2.2 4.1 24.2 24.3 12.32000-2040 4.1 40.5 181.9 195.8 71.5
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2000-2010 6.0 19.3 53.7 71.8 25.02010-2020 4.2 16.4 48.5 63.1 25.62020-2030 1.8 12.6 43.6 57.2 25.62030-2040 -0.5 9.4 39.9 51.8 25.82000-2040 11.8 71.0 358.9 568.7 148.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2002
2000-2010 4.6 16.7 48.1 62.9 21.92010-2020 2.8 13.8 42.7 54.5 21.82020-2030 0.4 10.0 38.0 48.9 21.32030-2040 -1.8 7.0 34.5 43.9 21.02000-2040 6.1 56.4 292.1 439.3 117.7
Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population in Texas by Racial/Ethnic Status Under Alternative
Assumptions of Migration Scenarios
Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other
2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2010 49.8 11.5 35.3 3.42020 46.7 11.4 38.4 3.52030 43.8 11.1 41.6 3.52040 41.2 10.7 44.7 3.4
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
2010 47.4 11.3 37.3 4.02020 42.2 10.9 42.4 4.52030 37.0 10.3 47.6 5.12040 32.2 9.5 52.6 5.7
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2010 45.1 11.1 39.3 4.52020 37.3 10.3 46.5 5.92030 30.3 9.2 53.2 7.32040 23.9 8.0 59.2 8.9
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2002 2010 45.6 11.1 38.9 4.42020 38.5 10.4 45.5 5.62030 32.0 9.4 51.8 6.82040 26.0 8.3 57.6 8.1
Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other
2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Percent of the Population in Texas
by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Projected Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity in Texas, 2000-2040*
*Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2010-2040.
53.1
45.1
37.3
30.3
23.9
11.6 11.1 10.39.2
8.0
32.0
39.3
46.5
53.2
59.2
3.34.5
5.97.3
8.9
2000 2010 2020 2030 20400.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0Percent
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
Percent of the Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity and Age Groups in Texas from 2000-2040
Under Alternative Migration Scenarios
AgeGroup Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total
All Scenarios
2000<18 23.0 31.7 35.8 26.1 28.218-24 8.8 11.2 13.2 11.2 10.625-44 30.1 32.1 31.8 37.7 31.145-64 24.4 17.7 14.0 20.1 20.265+ 13.7 7.3 5.2 4.9 9.9
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020<18 20.1 24.8 32.0 21.2 25.218-24 8.2 10.2 11.1 9.1 9.625-44 24.7 29.3 26.9 24.0 26.145-64 27.4 25.0 21.5 29.9 24.965+ 19.6 10.7 8.5 15.8 14.2
2040<18 17.4 19.9 27.5 16.8 22.218-24 7.6 8.8 10.0 6.5 8.725-44 24.1 27.6 27.1 23.7 25.945-64 24.9 26.5 20.6 22.1 23.065+ 26.0 17.2 14.8 30.9 20.2
(Continued)
AgeGroup Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total
All Scenarios
2000<18 23.0 31.7 35.8 26.1 28.218-24 8.8 11.2 13.2 11.2 10.625-44 30.1 32.1 31.8 37.7 31.145-64 24.4 17.7 14.0 20.1 20.265+ 13.7 7.3 5.2 4.9 9.9
Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration
2020<18 20.1 24.8 32.0 21.2 25.218-24 8.2 10.2 11.1 9.1 9.625-44 24.7 29.3 26.9 24.0 26.145-64 27.4 25.0 21.5 29.9 24.965+ 19.6 10.7 8.5 15.8 14.2
2040<18 17.4 19.9 27.5 16.8 22.218-24 7.6 8.8 10.0 6.5 8.725-44 24.1 27.6 27.1 23.7 25.945-64 24.9 26.5 20.6 22.1 23.065+ 26.0 17.2 14.8 30.9 20.2
(Continued)
Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group for 2000-2040*
*Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2040.
Anglo4.2%
Black5.6%
Hispanic77.6%
Other12.6%
Percent Change from 2000 to 2040 in Selected Age Groups in the Texas Population Under the 1.0
Scenario
88.3
112.0
295.5
<18 years 18 to 24 years 65+ years0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0Percent Change
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Median Household Income in 1999 in Texas by Age of Householder
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Age of Householder
Thousands
Median Household Income In 1999 in Texas by Race/Ethnicity of Householder
$47,162
$29,305 $29,873
$50,049
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Anglo Black Hispanic Asian
Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years
of Age By Race/Ethnicity
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
< High School
High School
Some College
College or More
Hispanic
Black
Anglo
Asian
Percent
States Ranked by Median Household Income in 1999
$55,146
$53,935
$52,868
$51,571
$50,502
$49,820
$49,467
$47,493
$47,381
$47,203
$39,927
$41,994
New Jersey (1)
Connecticut (2)
Maryland (3)
Alaska (4)
Massachusetts (5)
Hawaii (6)
New Hampshire (7)
California (8)
Delaware (9)
Colorado (10)
Texas (30)
United States
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000
States Ranked by Per Capita Income in 1999
$28,766
$28,659
$27,006
$25,952
$25,614
$24,049
$23,975
$23,844
$23,389
$23,305
$19,617
$21,587
Connecticut (1)
District of Columbia (2)
New Jersey (3)
Massachusetts (4)
Maryland (5)
Colorado (6)
Virgina (7)
New Hampshire (8)
New York (9)
Delaware (10)
Texas (33)
United States
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000
States Ranked by Percent High School Graduates + in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000
88.3
87.9
87.9
87.7
87.4
87.2
87.1
86.9
86.6
86.4
75.7
80.4
Alaska(1)
Minnesota (3)
Wyoming (3)
Utah (4)
New Hampshire (5)
Montana (6)
Washington (7)
Colorado (8)
Nebraska (9)
Vermont (10)
Texas (45)
United States
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Percent
States Ranked by Percent High School Graduates +in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2004
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS), 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplement
92.3
91.9
91.9
91.3
91.0
90.8
90.8
90.2
89.8
89.7
78.3
85.2
Minnesota (1)
Montana (2)
Wyoming (2)
Nebraska (4)
Utah (5)
New Hampshire (6)
Vermont (6)
Alaska (8)
Iowa (9)
Washington (10)
Texas ( 50)
United States
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Percent
States Ranked by Percent College Graduates +in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000
39.1
33.2
32.7
31.4
31.4
29.8
29.5
29.4
28.7
27.7
23.2
24.4
District of Columbia (1)
Massachusetts (2)
Colorado (3)
Connecticut (5)
Maryland (5)
New Jersey (6)
Virginia (7)
Vermont (8)
New Hampshire (9)
Washington (10)
Texas (27)
United States
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Percent
States Ranked by Percent College Graduates +in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2004
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Current Population Survey (CPS), 2004 Annual Social and Economic Supplement
36.7
35.5
35.4
35.2
34.6
34.5
34.2
33.1
32.5
31.7
24.5
27.7
Massachusetts (1)
Colorado (2)
New Hampshire (3)
Maryland (4)
New Jersey (5)
Connecticut (6)
Vermont (7)
Virginia (8)
Minnesota (9)
California (10)
Texas (35)
United States
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
Percent
The Texas Challenge in the Twenty-First Century: Implications of
Population Change for the Future of Texas
by
Steve H. Murdock
The Institute for Demographic and
Socioeconomic Research
The University of Texas at San Antonio
The Institute
for Demographic
and
Socioeconomic
Research
EDUCATION
Educational Attainment Characteristics of the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2000
PercentRacial/ High PercentEthnic School CollegeGroup Graduates Graduates
1990
Anglo 81.5 25.2Black 66.2 12.0Hispanic 44.6 7.3Total 72.1 20.3
2000
Anglo 87.2 30.0Black 75.8 15.3Hispanic 49.3 8.9Total 75.7 23.2
Percent Change
Anglo 7.0 19.0Black 14.5 27.5Hispanic 10.5 21.9Total 5.0 14.3
1990
Anglo 81.5 25.2Black 66.2 12.0Hispanic 44.6 7.3Total 72.1 20.3
2000
Anglo 87.2 30.0Black 75.8 15.3Hispanic 49.3 8.9Total 75.7 23.2
Percent Change
Anglo 7.0 19.0Black 14.5 27.5Hispanic 10.5 21.9Total 5.0 14.3
Public Community College and University Enrollment Rates (Per 100 Persons Ages 18 to 35)
in Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 1990 and 2000
Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total
Community College
1990 6.3 4.1 4.4 5.6 5.52000 6.5 5.2 4.8 6.8 5.7
Public University
1990 7.4 4.0 3.5 10.0 6.02000 7.5 4.7 3.3 10.3 5.7
Enrollment in Public Elementary and SecondarySchools in Texas for all Scenarios, 2000-2040
4
4
4
5
6
7
44
55
5
4 4 4
4 4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Years
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Millions
0.0 Scenario 0.5 Scenario 1.0 Scenario Census Count
Enrollment in Public Community Colleges andPublic Universities in Texas, 2000-2040*
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
371
445
495
581
677
421
510
589
710
849
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Years
0
200
400
600
800
1,000Thousands
Public Community Colleges Public Universities
Projected Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
43.2
19.9
14.4
8.3
39.5
66.3
2.95.5
2000 2040
Projection Year
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Percent
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
Projected Percent of Public Community College Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
54.7
25.7
11.18.1
29.5
56.0
4.7
10.2
2000 2040
Projection Year
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Percent
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
Projected Percent of Public University Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
61.5
32.3
10.38.1
21.3
44.5
6.9
15.1
2000 2040
Projection Year
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Percent
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
Future Demands for Specific Programs
Source: The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas
186.8%
119.9%
48.5%
183%
188.1%
64.7%
101.9%
69.9%
Bilingual/ESL
Economically Disadvantaged
Gifted and Talented
Immigrants
Limited English Proficiency (LEP)
Special Education
Title 1
Career and Technology Education
0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
2000-2040 Percent Change
76.2% Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Growth
Percent Change in Public Community College Enrollment, Public University Enrollment, Students with Financial Need Unmet by Household Resources, and State Financial
Assistance Expenditures for Public Higher Education in Texas, 2000-2040*
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
101.6
82.5
105.4
206.7
Public Community College Enrollment
Public University Enrollment
Students with Financial Need
Unmet
State Financial Assistance
Expenditures
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Percent Change
Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders, and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
53.1%
11.6%32.0%
3.3%
61.4%
11.4% 24.2%
3.0%
58.4%
10.7% 27.5%
3.4%
24.2%7.9%
59.1%
8.8%
29.0%9.0%
52.8%
9.2%
25.2%7.9%
58.7%
8.2%
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
2000 Population
2040 Population
2000 Householders
2040 Householders
2000 Civilian Labor Force
2040 Civilian Labor Force
Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in Elementary and Secondary Schools and
Colleges in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
43.2%
14.4%
39.5%
2.9%
58.0%
10.7%25.6%
5.7%
19.9%
8.3%
66.3%
5.5%
28.7%8.1%
50.9%12.3%
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
2000 Public Elementaryand Secondary
2040 Public Elementaryand Secondary
2000 Public Collegesand Universities
2040 Public Collegesand Universities
Ethnic Diversity of Household Income and Consumer Expenditures in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
71.2%
8.2%17.3%
3.3%
66.4%
8.7%21.9%
3.0%
38.2%
7.4%
42.8%
11.6%
31.9%7.1%
51.7%
9.3%
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
2000 AggregateHousehold Income
2040 AggregateHousehold Income
2000 Consumer Expenditures
2040 Consumer Expenditures
State Tax Revenues in Texas Proportioned by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040* Assuming 2000 Decile Tax Rates
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
38.2%7.4%
42.8%11.6%
Anglo Black Hispanic Other
2040* Projected Tax Revenues
71.2%
8.2%
17.3%3.3%
2000 Tax Revenues
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
18.8
29 28.7
18.2
5.3
30.128.7
23.9
12.9
4.4
No High School Diploma
High School Graduate
Some College
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate/Prof.Degree
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percent
2000 2040
Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040*
(in 2000 Dollars)
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
$54,441
$52,639
$50,903
$49,326
$47,883
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
11.4
7.5
15.0
26.7
18.9
14.415.4
11.8
17.0
30.0
18.9
16.6
Family Households
Married Couple
Male Householder
Female Householder
Nonfamily Households
Total Households
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Percent in Poverty
2000 2040
Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United Statesby Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*
*From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)
$30,412
$42,271
$52,552
$80,950
$102,410
$32,473
$44,068
$54,467
$80,327
$104,294
Less ThanHigh School
High SchoolGraduate
Some College or Associate Degree
Bachelor'sDegree
Graduate/ProfessionalDegree
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Average Income
Texas United States
Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
12.7
25.7
31.6
30.0
24.0
29.9
30.6
15.5
50.7
22.0
18.4
8.9
21.0
16.1
20.6
42.3
2.2
16.6
33.4
47.8
4.3
25.6
40.5
29.6
32.1
25.8
24.1
18.0
13.4
7.6
11.0
68.0
< High School
High School
Some Coll/Assoc
Bachelor's +
< High School
High School
Some Coll/Assoc.
Bachelor's +
< High School
High School
Some Coll/Assoc
Bachelor's +
< High School
High School
Some Coll/Assoc
Bachelor's +
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
Percent
2000 2040
Black
Hispanic
Other
Anglo
Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
$251
$621
$765
$938
$210
$528
$629
$752
2000Base Values
2040 Assuming2000 Attainment
Differentials
2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
2040 AssumingAnglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
Billions
Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures
State Tax Revenues in Texas for 2000 and Projected for 2040 (in 2000 Dollars) Assuming 2000 Rates, 1990-2000 Rates of Closure
Between Anglo-Black and Anglo-Hispanic Household Incomes, and Anglo Income Levels for All Race/Ethnicity Groups*
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
$29,510,942,468
$68,026,247,958
$74,812,045,501
$89,667,827,701
2000 AggregateHousehold Income
2040 Assuming2000 Income Differentials
2040 Assuming1990-2000 Closure
in Differentials
2040 AssumingAnglo Incomesfor all Groups
$0
$10,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$50,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
$70,000,000,000
$80,000,000,000
$90,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
Tax Revenues
Prison Population and Prison Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
126,515
341,068
227,969
134,539$1.9
$5.1
$3.4
$2.0
2000Base Values
2040 Assuming2000 Attainment
Differentials
2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
2040 AssumingAnglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000Prison Population
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0 Costs (Billions)
Prison Population Prison Costs
The mark of a truly educated man is to be moved deeply by statistics.
George Bernard Shaw
Steve MurdockTexas State Data Center
Phone 210 – 458 - 6530Fax 210 – 458 - 6540Website txsdc.utsa.edu