pomerania tri-city real estate...
TRANSCRIPT
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Pomerania
Tri-City
Real Estate Market
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▪ Tri-City Agglomeration: M 1,2 people;
▪ Core Tri-City Area: 414 km;
▪ Transportation: Fast Urban Railway, trams, buses.
Tri-City (Gdansk, Gdynia, Sopot)
WARSAW
TRI-CITY
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Gdynia
Sopot
Gdańsk
Baltic Sea
Gdansk Lech Walesa Airport
Port of Gdynia and Port of Gdansk
A1 Motorway, S6 and S7 Expressway
Railway
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Gdansk – Warsaw – 3h 35m*
Gdansk – Krakow– 6h 25m*
* A1 Motorway
Gdansk – Warsaw – 2 h 45m*
Gdansk – Krakow– 5h 13 m*
* Pendolino train
Developed road & railway network
GDANSK
WARSAW
Olsztyn
Slupsk
Bialystok
Torun
Poznan
Szczecin
S6
A2
A1
A1
A2A2
S7
S22
S7
5
Main roads
Roads under construction
--- Railway network
Borders of voivodships
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Direct Flight Connections to All Major European Airports
▪ Lech Walesa International Airport serves
connections with the most important
European cities;
▪ Among all Polish airports, Gdansk offers
the greatest number of air connections
with the Scandinavian countries.
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2,9
mln
▪ 4,6 million passengers in 2017;
▪ Most popular airlanes in 2017: Warsaw, London, Oslo, Stockholm,
Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Munich, Dortmund, Cracow, Turku.
3,3
mln
3,7
mln
4,0
mln
2013
20142015
2016
Number of passengers
2017
4,6
mln
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Sea Ports in Gdansk and Gdynia
Source: DCT Gdańsk
Source: Own materials
▪ All kinds of cargo;
▪ Direct calls from China;
▪ Biggest vessels in the world call at Gdansk;
▪ Biggest container hub in the Baltic Sea;
▪ 112 cruise ships in 2017.
Source: Own materials
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Mix of architecture
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Growing economy
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Growing economy
▪ GDP Growth: 4,5% (2016);
▪ Business Services- 41 centres, 10.000 people;
▪ IT – 67 centres, 16.000 software developers;
▪ Logistics – growing hub for CEE;
▪ Shipbuilding – 2 bilion Euro sales annualy;
▪ Tourism.
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Office market
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Office stock by completion year (m2)
51%
24%
10%
15%
0-5 years
6-10 years
11-15 years
over 16 years
Source: Colliers International 2018, The largest office markets in Poland, Market Insights 2018
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Completions
Tri-City 2010-2017
Source: JLL, PORF, Q4 2017
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Source: Colliers International 2018, The largest office markets in Poland, Market Insights 2018
73%
22%
5%
Gdańsk Gdynia Sopot
The total stock in TriCityamounts to almost
700 000 m2
TriCity is at the third place among regional markets in Poland
regarding total stock
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Source: Colliers International 2018, The largest office markets in Poland, Market Insights 2018
*f forecast
New supply 2010-2017 (m2)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f
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Gross take-up
Tri-City 2010-2017
Source: JLL, PORF, Q4 2017
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Source: Colliers International 2018, The largest office markets in Poland, Market Insights 2018
Demand – main sectors
IT & TELECOMS
15%
RETAIL
14%
PROFESSIONALS
SERVICES
16%
FINANCE INSURANCE
21%
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Source: Colliers International 2018, The largest office markets in Poland, Market Insights 2018
Demand by deal size (m2)
16%
49%
35%
<1000
1000-5000
5000-10000
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Source: Colliers International 2018, The largest office markets in Poland, Market Insights 2018
Rent
City Rent/EUR/m2/month
Warszawa 12-22
Kraków 13,2-15,5
Wrocław 13-15,5
TriCity 12-15,5
Katowice 12,2-14,5
Poznań 13,5-17
Łódź 12-13,5
Lublin 11-13
Szczecin 11-14
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Industrial market
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Stock evolution
Source: JLL, Q4 2017
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Demand (net take-up and renewals)
Source: JLL, Q4 2017
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Main business sectors in 2017
60%24%
7%
5%
4%
3PL
Retail
Production
FMCG
E-commerce
Source: Colliers International 2018, Warehouse real estate market, Market Insights 2018
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Leasing agreements structure in 2017
59%
39%
2%
new deals renegotiations expansions
Effective rental rates for modern
industrial space in Tricity were in the
range of 2.2-2.9 EUR/m2/month.
Source: Colliers International 2018, Warehouse real estate market, Market Insights 2018
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Residential market
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New flats with building permits
Source: JLL/ Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS)
According to GUS nomenclature, flat refers both to units in multifamily houses as well as units in single family houses
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Flats, the construction of which has started
Source: JLL/ Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS)
According to GUS nomenclature, flat refers both to units in multifamily houses as well as units in single family houses
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New flats with permission to use
Source: JLL/ Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS)
According to GUS nomenclature, flat refers both to units in multifamily houses as well as units in single family houses
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Sales
Source: JLL/ redNet Property Group/ REAS
Numbers refer to units in multifamily houses solely
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Prices on the primary market
Source: JLL/ National Bank of Poland (NBP)
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Prices on the secondary market
Source: JLL/ National Bank of Poland (NBP)
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Retail market
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Retail market distribution at present
Source: JLL, April 2018
Retail format GLA (m2) Share of the sector No. of schemes
Shopping centres 560,000 66% 24
Retail parks 157,300 18% 5
Retail warehousing 134,000 14% 16
Outlet centres 16,700 2% 1
Total 868,000 100% 46
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The age of shopping centres
7%
30%
30%
33%
0-5 years
6-10 years
11-15 years
over 15 years
Source: Colliers International, Shopping centers in agglomerations, Q2 2017
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Development of retail space within shopping centre format
Source: JLL
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Growing tourism
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Growing tourism
Source: PROT
Growing number of
tourists in Pomerania
reaching 9 mln
visitors
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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Growing tourism
37%
24%
16%
10%
7%6%
Other Germany Norwegians Swedes British Russians
19% of the tourists
are of foreign origin
Source: Statistical Office in Gdańsk, May 2017
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Hotel market
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Hotels
Hotels in Pomerania by categories in 2012-2017
Source: Own elaboration based on Local Data Bank [www.bdl.stat.gov.pl]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5* hotels
4* hotels
3* hotels
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Hotels
Bed places in touristic accomodation in Pomerania
Source: Own elaboration based on Local Data Bank [www.bdl.stat.gov.pl]
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
number of bed places
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Hotels
The utilization rate of accommodation in all tourist establishments [%]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Poland
Pomerania
Source: Own elaboration based on Local Data Bank [www.bdl.stat.gov.pl]
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Hotels
The utilization rate of accommodation in hotels in Pomerania [%]
Source: Own elaboration based on Local Data Bank [www.bdl.stat.gov.pl]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5* hotels
4* hotels
3* hotels
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