poll summary april 2010

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  • 8/9/2019 Poll Summary April 2010

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    Memo

    To: Toomey for Senate CampaignFrom: Jon LernerDate: April 16, 2010Re: Polling in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Race________________________________________________________________________________________

    This month alone, there have already been fiveyes, fivedifferent independent polls done in thePennsylvania U.S. Senate race testing a general election matchup between Pat Toomey and Arlen Specter.

    Polling Source Date Toomey Specter Spread

    Rasmussen 4-12-10 50% 40% Toomey +10Susquehanna 4/7-4/12-10 48% 38% Toomey +10Muhlenberg 3/29-4/7-10 47% 40% Toomey +7Quinnipiac 3/30-4/5-10 46% 41% Toomey +5PPP 3/29-4/1-10 46% 43% Toomey +3 Average 47.4% 40.4% Toomey +7

    There are three striking things about the Toomey-Specter numbers.

    First, despite using slightly different methodologies, Specters support from one survey to the next shows ver

    little variation. This suggests that Specter has little ability to alter public perceptions of him, even as slightly

    different segments of the potential Pennsylvania electorate were sampled in each survey.

    Second, Specters average over five surveys sits at 40%, with a high watermark in the PPP survey of 43%.

    That suggests that Specters stagnant position has leveled off at a place that is nowhere near the 50% he needto win the racea place that no incumbent, let alone a 30-year incumbent like Specter, can easily survive.

    Third, Toomeys ballot support continues to grow. In the four public polls released in March, Toomeysballot number averaged 41.25%. In April the five-survey average now sits at 47.4%, and it has inched up ineach successively released survey to a peak of 50% in the most recent survey.

    Four of the April surveys also tested a general election matchup between Toomey and Joe Sestak.

    Polling Source Date Toomey Sestak Spread

    Rasmussen 4-12-10 47% 36% Toomey +11Muhlenberg 3/29-4/7-10 33% 22% Toomey +11Quinnipiac 3/30-4/5-10 42% 34% Toomey +8PPP 3/29-4/1-10 42% 36% Toomey +6 Average 41.0% 32.0% Toomey +9

  • 8/9/2019 Poll Summary April 2010

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    Notably, Toomey and Sestak are comparably known figures throughout Pennsylvania, and yet Toomeys leadover Sestak, on average, is two points larger even than his lead over Specter.

    Specter and Sestak have now begun in earnest to deliver their messages to Democratic primary voters viaextensive TV and direct mail advertising efforts. Those efforts will undoubtedly intensify over the next fourweeks leading up to the May 18th primary, with both candidates spending millions of dollars. The winner ofthe primary remains unclear. However, a few things are very likely. One, the winner will emerge from theprimary with less available cash than the $4 million Toomey now holds. Two, by virtue of having spentmillions of dollars promoting himself, the winner will likely see a short-term bump in the polls, so we shouldexpect the Toomey polling lead to diminish somewhat next month. Nonetheless, all of the trends we areseeing in public opinion bode very well for Pat Toomeys chances this year.