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TRANSCRIPT
Dear Workshop participants:
This paper, which I co-authored with Dwayne Woods of Purdue University, grew out of our attempt to understand the effects that travel liberalization will have on Cuba’s political future. The Cuban government last year announced a set of changes to its travel regulations that are the most sweeping in over five decades. As you will see, there is a connection in this story to political protest through the Exit, Voice, and Loyalty paradigm of Albert O. Hirschman. As always, I (and also my co-author) thank you for the opportunity to present at the Workshop and for any feedback you provide.
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NO WAY OUT: TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS AND AUTHORITARIAN
STABILITY
2
Why do autocrats differ in their propensity to allow their citizens to travel abroad? This article posits that there is an inverse relationship between the freedom of foreign movement and authoritarian stability. Authoritarian leaders recognize this and hence try to control foreign travel by their citizens. The result is that autocracies that impose restrictions on travel last significantly longer than those that do not, for two reasons. First, travel restrictions decrease the costs of repression for regimes. Secondly, countries that allow international travel integrate themselves significantly more in the global society than regimes that restrict it. There is an authoritarian dilemma inherent in this choice then, since the very human capital that governments desire to develop economically is based on openness to and integration with the outside world.
Keywords: migration, democracy, globalization, travel restrictions.
Word count: 8,510
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The relationship between international migration and domestic politics has drawn
increased interest in comparative politics in recent years.1 Despite this extensive
treatment, scholars have not explicitly addressed why autocrats differ in their propensity
to allow their citizens to travel and move to other countries, and what effects these
restrictions have on the stability of their governments.2 This article posits that there is an
inverse relationship between the freedom of foreign movement and authoritarian stability.
Authoritarian leaders recognize this and hence try to control the foreign movement of
their populations, fearing that exit will result in increased internationalization of domestic
dissent and less domestic control.
There is, moreover, an authoritarian dilemma inherent in this choice. The very
human capital that governments desire to develop economically is based on openness to
1 Lodigiani and Salomone (2012) have shown, for example, that total international
migration to countries with higher female political empowerment significantly increases
the female parliamentary shares in sending countries. Spilimbergo (2009) demonstrates
that foreign-educated individuals promote democracy in their home country, but only if
the education is acquired in democratic countries. A growing literature demonstrates the
effect of remittances on government in the source country (O'Mahony 2013; Pfutze,
forthcoming).
2 Most of the migration literature in Political Science and Sociology focuses on migration
flows from South to North, that is, economic migration from developing countries to
advanced industrialized democracies. In the words of Laurie A. Brand (2006, 2), “one
cannot really talk about a developed literature on sending-state emigration or practices in
the way one can cite myriad works on receiving-state immigration policy [original
emphasis]”.
4
and integration with the outside world. The deeper an authoritarian regime pursues global
integration through travel, monetary transfers, and communication flows, however, the
more difficult and costly it is for that regime to impose restrictions on travel. 3
Our findings reveal that regimes that impose restrictions are significantly more
durable than those that do not, for two related reasons. First, travel restrictions decrease
the costs of repression for regimes because the freedom of movement, like other human
rights, is a public good that allows citizens to coordinate their information, resources, and
activities (Bueno de Mesquita and Smith 2009, 2010). In addition, countries where
foreign travel is permitted integrate themselves significantly more in the global society
than regimes that have restrictive travel policies. This suggests the social linkages and
networks that develop between émigrés and foreigners on the one hand and local citizens
on the other significantly increase the democratic prospects of less democratic nations.
The findings in this study highlight then the need to move beyond simplified
accounts of the relationship between migration and democratic political reforms
(Hirschman 1970, 1993). In these accounts, the two ways to express dissatisfaction with
an authoritarian government – foreign travel and anti-government protest – are mutually
at odds, that is, the use of one impedes the other. Hirschman rightly anticipated that in the
presence of politically motivated emigration, it would be difficult for anti-government
dissent to develop. But he did not envision how social globalization, motivated to some
3 Fargues (2011, 5) captured the dilemma authoritarian regimes face in this
observation:“North African governments long distrusted their migrant communities in
Europe, suspecting them of being centers of political opposition, before coming to court
them for their remittances.”
5
extent by emigration, could increase citizen political involvement at a later stage.4 As
countries become more socially integrated with the outside, particularly through ties that
bind émigrés with their compatriots back home, citizens are able to pressure their
governments more effectively and elites are in a better position to identify with and
benefit from democratic reforms.
The following two sections point to gaps in our understanding of the relationship
between emigration and democratic reforms and articulate an alternative approach that
factors globalization into the behavior of both masses and elites in authoritarian regimes.
The third section details the empirical approach we have developed for testing these
relationships. A fourth section presents the results of our analysis. We conclude by
drawing implications and policy lessons from our findings.
Exit and Voice: An Inverse Relationship?
In an award-winning article on the collapse of the German Democratic Republic,
Albert O. Hirschman (1993) tried to understand why the GDR had been a stable
authoritarian regime for so long but had collapsed so suddenly.5 In the original
formulation of his exit, voice, and loyalty approach (hereafter EVL), Hirschman (1970)
implied that the blocking or limiting of exit should have a seesaw effect on voice. More
specifically, if citizens cannot express their grievances with the regime in power by
4 Some have even claimed that widespread emigration from the Arab world in the last
half of the 20th century directly contributed to the Arab Spring of 2011. This is indeed
what is suggested (albeit not demonstrated) in Fargues (2011).
5 Foreign travel began to destabilize the country in the summer of 1989. The GDR was
dissolved on October 3, 1990.
6
leaving, they may be more likely to speak up, making protest the dominant means of
redressing grievances in the political arena. In what amounted to a modification of his
earlier EVL framework, Hirschman claimed that the sudden collapse of the GDR could
be explained by a change in the relationship between emigration and protest: where a
regime is widely unpopular and authorities attempt to block exit, exit may actually go
along with belief in the efficacy of voice.6
Two decades have passed since the publication of Hirschman’s account, and his
interpretation of East Germany’s collapse has been challenged, among others for
underestimating the role mass migration can play in failing to produce collective voice
(Pfaff 2006; Pfaff and Kim 2003). But while these works have continued to refine the
EVL framework initially introduced by Hirschman more than four decades ago, an
increasingly accumulating literature has called into the question the utility of the model
for understanding broader trends in the relationship between globalization, in particular
the movement of people across national borders, and domestic democratic reforms (e.g.,
Hoffmann 2008; Koslowski 2005).7
6 Hirschman based his argument on Hungary’s opening up of its Western border in the
summer of 1989, which allowed East German tourists vacationing there to ask for entry
into West Germany, forcing the East German regime to allow them safe passage to the
West (Brubaker 1990, 13). The GDR government subsequently refused to consider any
more liberalization in its travel regulations.
7 There is also evidence that some autocracies have recently reconsidered their approach
to the regulation of foreign travel despite the absence of compelling reasons to change
them. On January 14th, 2013, for example, the Cuban government enacted the most
comprehensive changes in its travel policies in over five decades. See
7
Hirschman intended his approach to be useful in explaining the likelihood of
democratic political reforms in authoritarian regimes. He did so by trying to understand
the relationship between emigration and protest. While the EVL framework provides
some good intuitive insights, however, it raises a number of important questions that it
cannot satisfactorily answer. This failure stems from its inability to fully take
conditioning factors into account and to travel to cases outside those for which it was
originally conceived, namely, state-socialist regimes that simultaneously restrict the
exercise of exit and voice.
Consequently, we set out not to test a more refined theory of exit, voice and
loyalty dynamics. Instead, we use the original model to ask three relatively open-ended
questions. First, is the exit-voice dynamic conditioned by globalization? In other words,
is the calculus on travel shaped by the degree to which a regime is integrated into the
global society? A second and related question is whether regimes that restrict travel more
also integrate themselves less with the outside world. Finally, is it possible to identify a
causal relationship between travel restrictions and regime stability? That is, do travel
restrictions, directly or indirectly, increase the ability of autocracies to hang on to power?
The extent to which exit results in voice, and the ability of loyalists nationals to
rely on voice to demand political reforms, varies greatly. North Korea, for example, has
one of the most restrictive exit policies in the world, going as far as executing anyone
caught trying to flee the country. The regime rightly views exit as a signal to others of the
existence of domestic dissent. In Cuba, on the other hand, exit has been used as a valve to
http://www.ibtimes.com/cuba-travel-restrictions-lifted-us-wet-foot-dry-foot-policies-
remain-same-1013514#.
8
diffuse domestic grievances by ridding the country of those who might be more propense
to engage in protest (Pedraza 2007).
In China, exit is now to some extent a function of global economic integration.
The communist party permits its citizens to travel abroad for study, business, and
tourism, but carefully controls travel visas for dissident intellectuals, academics, and
members of ethnic and religious minorities.8 Moreover, China attempts through various
channels to control the way that Chinese citizens experience travel abroad. China’s
Approved Destination Status (ADS) policy, for example, allows Chinese citizens to travel
in organized group tours to countries the government has approved (Arita at al. 2011).
The objective of the policy, adopted in 1995, is to accommodate the growing demand by
Chinese to visit other countries and at the same time allow the government to have some
control over which countries they visit and the duration and nature of those visits. The
Chinese case suggests that the context in which autocracies respond to the threat of voice
has changed in last four decades: a significant number of governments have become more
democratic (Doorenspleet 2005). The demise of superpower rivalry in particular created a
world that is lot less hospitable to the policies of regimes that suppress human rights and
restrict political competition (Boix 2011; Jansson, Lindenfors, and Sandberg 2013, 2).
Figure 1 presents two plots of travel restrictions from 1981, the first year for
which data is available, to the most recent year for which we have data, 2011. The source
of this information is the CIRI Human Rights Data Project (Cingranelli and Richards
8 See the article appearing in the New York Times on February 22, 2003 titled “No Exit:
China Uses Passports as Political Cudgel”, available at
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/23/world/asia/chinese-passports-seen-as-political-
statement.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.
9
2008), the only repository of standardized comparative data on the freedom of travel.
The plot displays both the distribution of values as well as the average for a particular
year, allowing a trend over time to be discerned. The plots thus capture global trends in
the regulation of foreign travel, first for all regimes, and then for countries where
authoritarian tendencies prevail over democratic ones judging by the polity scores of
country-year observations. We have used a polity score of 0 as our threshold dividing
autocratic observations from democratic ones. 9
Figure 1. Travel Restrictions in the Era of Globalization, 1981-2011
9 The polity score is a combination of an autocracy and a democracy score, both taking a
value from 0 to 10. The autocracy score is subtracted from the democracy one, thus
yielding the overall polity score. This provides a convenient yardstick allowing us to
characterize the authority characteristics of a country with a score of or below 0 as
primarily authoritarian. See the Polity IV user’s manual at
http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p4manualv2010.pdf. If Cheibub et al.’s (2010, 3)
dichotomous classification of countries is used, the results differ by just 49 observations,
or 2.4%. Cheibub, Gandhi, and Vreeland define a democracy as a country where the chief
executive is be chosen “by popular election or by a body that was itself popularly
elected”, the legislature is popularly elected, there is more than one party competing in
elections, and “an alternation in power under electoral rules identical to the ones that
brought the incumbent to office must have taken place”.
10
0.5
11.
52
1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR
all countries
0.5
11.
52
1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR
autocraciesFr
eedo
m o
f for
eign
mov
emen
t
Travel restrictions over time
Note: A score of 0 indicates that this freedom was severely restricted, a score of 1 indicates the freedom was somewhat restricted, and a score of 2 indicates unrestricted freedom of foreign movement.
Figure 1 very clearly establishes that whereas no global trend exists in travel
regulation for the last three decades, a more restrictive trend over time is evident when
the comparison is limited to autocracies – despite the reality that the world has become
increasingly more democratic since the onset of the Third Wave of democratization in
1974.10 Similar to the displays in Figure 1, Figure 2 plots correlograms of economic,
social and political globalization for all countries over time for which there is data. The
information comes from the KOF Globalization project (Dreher 2006; Dreher, Gaston,
10 Although the number changes every year, there are more than 115 out of 196 countries
that meet the minimal criteria for being considered democratic according to Freedom
House (Puddington 2012).
11
and Martens 2008), a quite extensive collection of standardized cross-national time-series
data on globalization in its various manifestations.
12
Figure 2. Global Progress in Economic, Social, and Political Globalization, 1981-2010
020
4060
8010
0
1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR
economic globalization
020
4060
1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR
social globalization
020
4060
8010
0
1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR
political globalization
Progress in Globalization, All Countries
Note: Economic globalization refers to data on flows of trade, stocks of foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and income payments to foreign nationals, all as a percentage of GDP. Social globalization refers to data on telephone, letters, and information flows into and out of countries, flows of “goods, services, income, or financial items without a quid pro quo”, international tourist arrivals and departures, and the foreign or foreign-born population in a country. Political globalization refers to embassies in a country, membership in international organization, participation in U.N. Security Council Missions, and international treaties ratified.
As Figure 2 indicates, the world is becoming more integrated whether the measure of
globalization used is economic, social or political.
Figure 2 raises the possibility that autocratic elites, while attracted to the
opportunities presented by globalization, also see increasing contact with and dependence
on the outside as a threat to their power and legitimacy. If this is so, a secular trend
towards more interdependence may be specific to democracies, not the world as a whole.
Figure 3 reveals however that autocracies are also partaking in the challenges and
13
opportunities presented by globalization.
14
Figure 3. Progress in Economic, Social, and Political Globalization for Autocracies, 1981-2010.
020
4060
8010
0
1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR
economic globalization
020
4060
1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR
social globalization
020
4060
8010
0
1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR
political globalization
Progress in Globalization, Autocracies
If autocracies tend to restrict travel compared to democracies (Breunig, Cao, and
Luedtke 2012), they seem to be doing so because, not despite globalization. The question
then is whether these restrictions are having their intended effect on the stability of
authoritarian regimes. A positive correlation exists between restrictions on foreign travel
and authoritarian stability: autocracies that impose restrictions on outbound travel last
significantly longer than those that do not. This relationship is present whether
authoritarian stability is understood in terms of how many days a regime is in existence
(r=0.19; p<0.000)11 or in relation to movement (or lack thereof) along a continuous one-
11 We adopted the Polity IV definition of a regime transition as a change in the polity
score of 3 points or more in either direction over a period of 3 years of less. Accordingly,
increases of 3 points or more are classified as liberalizing events.
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dimensional indicator of the extent of ‘democrativeness’ of a political system (r=-0.14;
p<0.000).12 The following section explains the reason why this relationship is present.
The Conceptual Model
Hirschman claimed that in the presence of politically motivated emigration, it
would be difficult for anti-government dissent to develop. But he did not envision how
social globalization, motivated to some extent by exit, could increase voice at a later
stage. His conceptualization of exit as an individual act and voice as a collective one
involving significant risks, moreover, can severely circumscribe the domain of cases to
which the terms may apply (e. g., communist one-party autocracies). We argue instead
that democratization and social globalization require us to relax the scope conditions of
these two terms and define exit and voice as not simply politically motivated exile and
costly anti-government opposition, respectively. Instead, exit can take the form of
temporary exile and even economically motivated emigration since the latter, by
responding to the government’s inability to meet the economic needs of its population, is
an expression of disapproval. Voice, moreover, can take less demanding forms such as
voting for the opposition party in party-dominated autocracies (Pfutze 2012).
Travel restrictions are likely to affect the type and extent of integration an
autocracy pursues with the outside world. Contrary to the EVL model, however, we are
not interested in the relationship between exit and voice per se, but in how the two
produce (or fail to lead to) democratic reforms. We also subsume the category of loyalty 12 An example is the unified democracy scores (Pemstein, Meserve, and Melton 2010).
Country-year observations where state authority has collapsed due to civil conflict,
foreign intervention, or a protracted regime transition are excluded.
16
into the realm of voice (as hinted by Hirschman in his distinction between insurgent voice
and reformist voice) and ask instead how the regulation of exit affects the probability that
a country will engage in reforms that increase its level of democracy. In so doing, we
adapt the classical Dahlsian (1971) argument about democratization as a function of the
costs of tolerating or suppressing a political opposition to the relationship between travel
restrictions and authoritarian stability.
In our view, restricting travel limits the capacity of citizens not only to emigrate,
but also to return, and this explains why travel restrictions lower repression costs for
governments: by preventing citizens from expressing their dissent in the first place, or
severing the link between dissenters (those who have already left) and their societies,
governments that severely restrict travel make it difficult for citizens to organize and
mobilize around oppositional grievances. The variable we employ to measure this right,
the CIRI Human Rights Data Project’s “freedom of foreign movement and travel”
indicator, embodies the notion that the freedom to leave one’s country of origin and to
return to that country whenever one pleases are fundamental human rights enshrined in
the United Nations’ Universal Declaration of these rights. As a result, the Project codes
this right as severely restricted when countries restrict all or nearly all the foreign travel
of its citizens (as in most communist countries), and when they “do not respect the right
of citizen refugees outside of the country’s international borders to return to their homes.”
(Cingranelli and Richards 2008, 47).13
13 In addition, the freedom to move and travel is severely restricted when governments
have policies making it impossible or very difficult for married women to travel abroad
alone or without their husband’s consent (as in the Middle East), and when countries
limit the travel of sizable minority groups.
17
A country may be more socially globalized because of its own policies, those of
its neighbors, or both. For our purposes, what matters is the extent to which social
integration helps countries promote democratic reforms, controlling for other factors that
may affect this integration such as travel policies and the level of development.14
We believe that democracies pursue policies that are more amenable to global
integration along societal dimensions, but we are not claiming we can isolate the precise
mechanisms in the external environment that influence a country’s political system
(Brinks and Coppedge 2006, 467). Indeed, external forces can influence a country’s level
of democracy through at last five different channels (Levitsky and Way 2010, 38-39).15
The indicator of social globalization we use captures some of those channels – such as
income or financial transfers a country receives without a quid pro quo, namely
remittances and foreign aid. Other variables we employ such as the average level of
democracy in a country’s immediate neighborhood help control for other important
channels of diffusion.
Diffusion variables in previous studies have not explicitly captured processes that
reflect how a nation’s citizens respond to the external environment. Many of the variables
used, even those that proxy for spatial diffusion, mostly reflect the effect of external
14 It is well known for example that less developed countries (LDCs) are much less
socially globalized than their developed counterparts because potential host countries,
fearing the economic effects of immigration, make it very difficult for LDC citizens to
obtain travel permits.
15 These mechanisms are diffusion, direct democracy promotion, multilateral
conditionality, democracy assistance, and transnational advocacy networks.
18
factors on a country’s elite.16 Our study is the first to include a variable that primarily
reflects how the external environment affects citizens in the recipient nation, in addition
to more commonly used indicators of political and economic diffusion.
The Empirical Model
We rely on a panel of 112 countries from 1985 to 2007 to test the effects of travel
restrictions on authoritarian stability (see Appendix A). This time frame creates an ideal
sample for our empirical analysis since it encompasses a period of time beginning
roughly after travel regulations in some ex-communist countries were relaxed following
the East-West détente of the 1970s. Our dependent variable is a country’s Unified
Democracy Score (hereafter UDS) and the main independent variable is the “freedom of
foreign movement and travel” indicator from the CIRI Human Rights Data Project. UDSs
combine scores from 10 different regime indicators (Pemstein, Meserve, and Melton
2010). In so doing, they provide information on a range of political characteristics –
whether institutional, or behavioral. As such, we consider democratization any positive
16 One example would be how liberalization abroad induces home elites to liberalize, or
how backsliding abroad makes repression at home more attractive, which is the process
Brinks and Coppedge (2006) seem to model when including in their analysis a variable
capturing the average change in Freedom House scores for a country’s contiguous
neighbors. Other variables such as the proportion of countries in the world or in the
neighborhood that are democratic (Gleditsch and Ward 2006) do not clearly distinguish
between the effect of external factors on elites and on mass actors. An exception is
Wejnert (2005), who included in her study measures of media exposure.
19
change in a country’s UDS, whether the change occurs as a result of less repression,
greater inclusiveness, more political competition, or something else.
Our theoretical discussion has already established the expectation that social
globalization leads to higher levels of democracy.17 Before proceeding, it is important to
note that we transform the original index of social globalization including subcategories
for personal contact, information flows, and cultural proximity into a new index that
excludes the third subcategory. In our view, two of the proxies used to represent this
subcategory, the number of McDonald’s restaurants and Ikea stores located in a country,
lack validity because the number of such outlets could be more a function of that
country’s openness to and ability to attract foreign direct investment than the cultural
predispositions of its citizens.18 We note though that the pairwise correlation between our
index and the UDS is high (r=0.63; p<0.000). This raises the possibility that regimes may
systematically explain variation in social globalization. We account empirically for this
17 Social globalization has been found in particular to lead to less political repression in
the form of fewer violations of physical integrity rights (Flaten and de Soysa 2012).
18 A better approach in our view would have been to use public opinion data from sources
such as the World Values Survey to establish empirically the existence of this proximity.
We, however, chose not to pursue this approach for two reasons: first, personal contacts
and information flows are much closer to what we think of as social globalization (Flaten
and de Soysa 2012, 631), leading to some extent to the cultural proximity among some
nations that we observe. National cultures and any similarity among them, moreover, is
also a function of important variables such as socio-economic development. To retain the
first two subcategories while excluding the third, we thus rescaled the original index by
multiplying it by their weights, 69%, or 0.69.
20
possibility by finding proxies for social globalization that can then be used to model the
reciprocal effects between social globalization and democracy. This amounts to an
instrumental variables analysis in which social globalization is first modeled as a function
of these proxies and other exogenous covariates, and then predicted values from this
regression along with the exogenous covariates are used to explain the level of
democracy in the second stage.
The variables chosen as proxies are the number of direct borders (sea and land) a
country shares with its neighbors (Correlates of War 2013; Stinnett et al. 2002), and the
average yearly level of democracy in the world. Scholars have recently claimed that
autocracies tend to bloc exit while allowing entry, with democracies following the
opposite policy (Breunig, Cao, and Luedtke 2012). Since social globalization is to some
extent a function of the policies on entry and exit of other countries, the global level of
democracy provides some idea of how the distribution of regimes affects opportunities
for inbound and outbound travel.19
To be valid, the proxies can only be associated with democracy through their
effect on social globalization. That means they have to be correlated with the endogenous
19 In constructing our matrix of instruments, we also experimented with several alternative
proxy variables but ultimately settled on the two we present since the results were
invariably very similar and the estimator performed as well or worse with the alternative
constructions. Instrumental variables estimation in general and the Hausman endogeneity
test in particular are sensitive to the quality of instruments and model specification
(Paxton, Hipp, and Marquart-Pyatt 2011, 80). Although we opted for parsimony in our
analysis, results with different combinations of alternative proxies are available upon
request (See Appendix B).
21
variable (i.e., instruments should be relevant) but uncorrelated with the dependent
variable (exclusion condition). As a result, proxy variables cannot be correlated with the
errors in the second stage of the model. Consequently, we provide diagnostics that assess
whether our matrix of instruments is correlated with the endogenous regressor
(Underidentification Test) but uncorrelated with the error term in the second stage
(Overidentification Test). Finally, we examine whether social globalization is indeed
exogenous to democracy or if the two affect one another (Endogeneity Test).
Our pooled two-stage least squares analysis models both how levels of the
independent variables produce differences in levels of the dependent variable, and how
changes over time in the independent variables produce changes within countries in the
dependent variable in both stages of the analysis. We opted not to model changes only
since there may be a considerable lag between chances in exit policies and the effects of
these changes on a country’s political system. As a result, we provide random effect
estimates of the effect of travel restrictions and other covariates on democracy and social
globalization, controlling for country-specific, unobserved factors that may be difficult to
model.20 Since we are interested in comparing the magnitude of the effect for particular
variables, all our coefficients have been standardized. As such, they represent the number
of standard deviations the dependent variable increases or decreases in response to a one
standard deviation increase in the independent variable.
20 An example would be the hostile relationship between the United States and Cuba in
which the United States has consistently lowered the cost of exit (compared to other
countries) for those disaffected with Cuba’s one-party state socialist government
(Colomer 2000).
22
It is also important to emphasize that our two main independent variables,
“freedom of foreign movement and travel” and “social globalization”, should be
associated with a range of both state and societal behaviors that affect the performance of
democracy such as the presence of free and fair elections, state repressive behavior, and
contentious activity on the part of members of society. The following section provides a
description of the remaining independent and control variables as well as our
expectations regarding their effects.
Inequality in the distribution of pre-tax, pre-transfer income has long been
considered detrimental to democratic politics (Acemoglu and Robinson 2006; Boix
2003). Great gaps in the income different classes receive may create grievances that make
the poor prone to revolution and the wealthy less likely to tolerate competitive politics.
As a result, market inequality could lead to more repression, less political competition,
and/or less electoral inclusiveness. The measure of inequality used is the pre-tax, pre-
transfer Gini coefficient from the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (Solt
2009).
GDP per capita: The most economically developed countries also tend to be the
most democratic, although it is not clear if this is because economic development directly
causes democratization, or because democracies, once installed, survive in more
developed countries (Kennedy 2010). What is clear, however, is that more socioeconomic
development should be associated with greater social globalization. We rely on a measure
of GDP per capita in constant purchasing power parity (PPP) international dollars from
the World Development Indicators.21 Because of its right skew, we use its natural log
transformation instead.
21 http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
23
Oil rents: Countries that depend on natural resource wealth have long been
considered inauspicious for democratic rule (Ross 2012). The unusually large rents oil
generates reduce the need to tax the population, thereby depriving it of collective
representation. Oil rents also reduce accountability since the recipients of these rents tend
to be state owned enterprises (with the exception of oil companies in the United States,
which are in private hands). We use an indicator of oil rents from the World
Development Indicators that measures the difference between the value of crude oil
production at world prices and total costs of production (as a percentage of GDP).
Economic globalization: There is no scholarly consensus on the effect of trade
and capital flows on democracy (Coppedge 2012, 301-302). Tariff and other revenue
from financial transactions could lower repression costs for governments. Trade in goods
and services, however, can also generate wealth and goods that empower citizens
economically and make them less dependent on their government for their survival.
While our expectations with respect to the effect of this variable on democracy are clearly
mixed, we expect economic globalization to be positively associated with social
globalization. As already indicated, we use the index of economic globalization
developed by Axel Dreher.22
Political globalization: This variable, as indicated in Figure 2, refers to the extent
of formal penetration by other governments, international organizations, and the United
Nations in the affairs of a particular country. It is expected to result in more social
globalization and greater democracy scores if a majority of states in the international
system are democracies.
22 http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/.
24
GDP growth: It is important to control for adverse economic conditions that may
affect inbound and outbound travel or create adverse conditions for the stable functioning
of democratic politics (Gasiorowski 1995; Haggard and Kaufman 1995). We also include
an interaction between the freedom of movement variable and GDP growth because some
(e.g. Wright 2009) have suggested that dictators use emigration as a safety valve when
poor economic performance causes their legitimacy to fall. The interaction term would
thus help decide whether travel policies primarily help entrench authoritarian rule by
allowing governing elites to maintain control, or by opening a safety valve for the
disaffected to leave. The inflation-adjusted rate of economic growth, taken from the
World Development Indicators, is expressed in annual percentage points.
Military personnel: The size of the military matters to our analysis for two
reasons: a large and influential military may intervene directly or indirectly in politics,
and/or involve itself in domestic coercion (Svolik 2012). Following Albertus and
Menaldo (2012), we operationalize this variable as military personnel in thousands, based
on figures from the Correlates of War project. We select this measure over military
spending figures since personnel figures are considered more reliable (e.g., Bowman,
1996, 293).23 Because this variable is considerably right-skewed, we also employ its
logarithmic transformation.
Population density: It is important to control for population as larger countries
may be more propense to emigration. In addition, one of the most solid findings from the
literature on state repression is that more populous countries have governments that are
23 Albertus and Menaldo (2012, 154) use military size per 100 inhabitants but we believe
it is best to rely on the original variable as we also include population density in our
analysis.
25
more repressive because there are more people whose behaviors have to be controlled
(Bueno de Mesquita et al. 2003; Davenport 2007). But as important as the total number
of people is their concentration, since high densities facilitate collective action.
Consequently, we rely on densities rather than absolute counts. Population density refers
to people per square kilometer. Information on this variable comes from the World
Development Indicators.
There are several international factors that should affect both a state’s social
integration and its democratic performance. Among these we choose the character of a
country’s neighborhood because it has been used in several previous studies (Brinks and
Coppedge 2006; Gleditsch 2002; Gleditsch and Ward 2006). We account for other
relevant international factors such as regional and global influences (e.g., Pevehouse
2005; Thomas 2001) through the model specification.
Neighborhood level of democracy: According to diffusion theorists,
demonstration effects in neighboring countries and/or imitation by the home country
should increase the home country’s level of democracy. But one could just as easily
envision the opposite effect, that is, that the more the political distance between North
and South Korea grows – to take a particularly poignant example – the more strongly
North Korean elites seek to block the diffusion of democratic norms and practices from
their Southern neighbor (Gunitsky 2013). We follow Brinks and Coppedge’s (2006)
classification of contiguous neighbors and like them, also average regime scores for a
country’s neighbors in a given year. We, however, average over UDS instead of Freedom
House indexes.
Findings
26
Table 1 presents the results of our instrumental variables analysis of social
globalization and democracy. The overall coefficient of codetermination (or R2) is high,
indicating the model explains a significant amount of variation in the data. Tellingly,
more of the variation explained is cross-sectional than time-series, reflecting the
distribution of our dependent variables. Diagnostic tests indicate the model is properly
specified, with proxy variables or instruments being correlated with the endogenous
regressor but uncorrelated with the errors in the second stage of the regression.
27
Table 1. Instrumental Variables Analysis of Social Globalization and Democracy, 1985-2007
Independent variables Social globalization UDSSocial globalization 0.347***
(0.131)Freedom of movement 0.006 0.110***
(0.008) (0.012)Inequality 0.020** -0.040***
(0.010) (0.015)GDP per capita 0.581*** 0.082
(0.023) (0.086)Oil rents -0.078*** -0.081***
(0.012) (0.020)Economic globalization 0.131*** -0.032
(0.012) (0.027)Political globalization 0.100*** 0.064**
(0.013) (0.028)GDP growth 0.008 -0.001
(0.005) (0.008)Freedom of movement*GDP growth -0.003 0.011
(0.004) (0.007)Military population -0.065*** -0.096***
(0.021) (0.032)Population density -0.008 -0.136***
(0.021) (0.032)Neighborhood 0.157*** 0.213***
(0.018) (0.039)Global democracy 0.071***
(0.007)Total number of borders 0.055***
(0.021)Constant 0.006 -0.041
(0.026) (0.040)Underidentification Test: χ² (p-value)H 0: Instruments are uncorrelated with endogenous regressors
19.445(0.000)
Overidentification Test: χ² (p-value)H 0: Instruments are uncorrelated with the error term
0.713(0.399)
Endogeneity Test: χ² (p-value)H 0: Regressors are exogenous
0.249(0.618)
R2 within 0.195R2 between 0.764R2 overall 0.713N 1937
28
* p≤0.1; ** p≤0.05; *** p≤0.01, two-tailed tests. Standardized coefficients reported with standard errors in parentheses.
The results largely confirm our expectations, since social globalization and
freedom of movement are both positively and significantly associated with higher levels
of democracy. Freedom of movement is insignificantly associated with social
globalization, but this is in all likelihood due to the reality that the index accounts for
outbound tourists but not migrants moving to another country. We do not consider this a
serious problem however, since countries that severely restrict outbound migration also
tend to restrict international tourism and return trips for their compatriots, as our
discussion of the freedom of movement variable made clear. Travel policies, moreover,
affect only a subset of indicators used to construct the index of social globalization.
Nevertheless, the bivariate correlation between the freedom of movement and social
globalization is positive and very significant (r=0.33; p<0.000).
As hypothesized, countries that are more politically and economically globalized
are also more socially globalized, but not those who rely on oil rents. Oil dominated
economies are less pluralistic and diversified than would be expected based on their
levels of development (Boix 2003). Also expected is the finding that more borders and a
higher proportion of democracies in the neighborhood and the world significantly
increase social globalization. Not surprisingly, GDP per capita emerges as the variable
with the largest positive effect on a country’s index of social globalization.
Tellingly, the interaction term between freedom of movement and GDP growth is
insignificant. This indicates that travel regulations do not relate to autocratic rule
primarily by serving as safety valves. This is not simply a matter of travel regulations
varying mostly between as opposed to within countries, since the within variation in this
29
variable accounts for 60% of the between variation. We do not deny that poor economic
performance may have contributed to massive exoduses in some autocracies (e.g., Cuba
in 1980 and 1994, East Germany in 1961 and 1989). But a poorly performing economy is
seldom the sole or main mass grievance against authoritarian states. Most likely, there is
variation in economic performance from one exodus to another (the East German
economy was performing better in the early 1960s than in the late 1980s, for example). In
the final analysis, GDP growth does not significantly explain variation in UDS scores
even in the absence of an interaction term.
A crucial finding to emerge from this exercise, however, is that social
globalization is not endogenous to democracy, that is, social globalization affects
democracy significantly, but it does not in turn vary significantly by political regime.
This lack of a reciprocal relationship is confirmed by a Durbin-Wu-Hausman test of
endogeneity (Paxton et al. 2011, 78-80), the null hypothesis of which is that the
coefficient of social globalization from the instrumental variables estimation does not
differ significantly from that of an ordinary random effects (panel data) model. The null
hypothesis is accepted, suggesting that while autocracies are not significantly more
globalized than democracies, they should worry that the benefits they gain while they
seek to expand their integration with the outside world could come at a price.
The lack of endogeneity of social globalization to democracy indicates that an
instrumental variables approach is not only unnecessary, but may not be ideal. Two-stage
least squares regression is not as efficient as OLS, having only large sample properties
(consistency). In addition, our estimation so far has not properly accounted for
autocorrelation and other disturbances that could pose a threat to efficient and consistent
30
parameter estimation. A Wooldridge test for serial correlation in panel data indicates the
presence of such correlation. We may indeed generate more accurate results if we treat
social globalization as exogenous and properly account for the possibility of serial
correlation and other violations of classical assumptions. We thus adjust the errors using
a first order autoregressive process.
Fortunately, mixed or hierarchical models lend themselves well to the task. We
thus estimate a three-level linear model with random intercepts for countries, regions and
years, with countries nested within regions and crossed effects for years.24 The model
presents several unique advantages. Similar to the previous approach, country effects
capture unit heterogeneity, that is, country-specific, unobserved factors, but allowing the
error variance for the group effects to be estimated separately for each group provides an
additional safeguard against heteroskedasticity (Shor et al. 2007). Secondly, adding
random effects for regions controls for International Governmental Organizations (IGOs),
the unique role of the European Union in democracy promotion (Levitsky and Way
24 “Crossed” means that years are not nested within regions or countries, that is, that for
every realization of year there are multiple realizations of country and region and vice-
versa. The suitability of this parameterization was assessed using the Akaike information
criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). In both cases, a model with
countries nested within regions and years crossed with countries and regions yielded
smaller AIC and BIC values than a model with nested random effects but no crossed
effects for years, a model with years crossed with countries but no random effects for
regions, and a model with years crossed with regions but no random effects for countries.
31
2010), and any number of other geographical influences not captured by the level of
democracy in a country’s immediate neighborhood (Wejnert 2005).25
Third, contrary to the complete pooling that ignores clustering or un-pooled
techniques that treat every unit as unique (fixed effects), units in a hierarchical set up are
neither assumed to be unique nor are their differences ignored (Beck 2001, 124–25).
Instead, by employing varying intercepts for units, country and regional effects are
assumed to vary and this variance is estimated conditional on the data and parameters of
the model. Fourthly, year effects capture differences over time that are common to all
groups. Statistically, this has the added benefit that it directly models time intercepts,
removing contemporaneous correlation. Theoretically, it does justice to arguments
claiming that the global balance of democracy exerts an independent effect (via
demonstration) on the autocracies that remain (Gleditsch and Ward 2006).26
Finally, the partial pooling inherent in mixed or hierarchal modeling is
particularly desirable for unbalanced panels since it allows more accurate estimates of
25 Brinks and Coppedge (2006) code seventeen regions in their analysis. This compares to
the sixteen in Wejnert (2005, 59). In addition, several of their country classifications
appeared to be typos, so we corrected them using Wikipedia. The changes are as follows:
Turkey from "Southern Europe" to “Middle East”, Solomon Islands from "Sub-Saharan
Africa" to “Pacific”, Sao Tome and Principe from "Caribbean” to “Sub-Saharan Africa”,
Singapore from “East Asia” to “Southeast Asia”, Maldives from “Sub-Saharan Africa” to
“South Asia”, Lesotho from “Sub-Saharan Africa” to “Southern Africa” and Chad from
“Northern Africa” to “Sub-Saharan Africa”.
26 One example of this type of argument is the claim that regime changes cluster in waves
that affect many countries simultaneously (Huntington 1991).
32
country effects, alleviating the problem of slow-moving or completely time-invariant
predictors (Shor et al. 2007, 168). The mixed or hierarchical structure of the model comes
from employing varying intercept parameters for regions, countries and years. This
makes it unnecessary to use one of the indicator dummies as the baseline category (as
would have been necessary had we introduced fixed effects for regions, countries, or
years).27
To allow for the possibility that the effect of travel restrictions on democracy is
contingent on a country’s level of engagement with the outside world, we present two
models of democracy, one using the same variables as in the previous analysis, and a
second that adds an interaction term between freedom of movement and social
globalization. Table 2 presents the results of our three-level model of democracy. Q-Q
plots of the best linear unbiased predictions for all three random effects indicate no
deviations from normality. The random effect parameters also indicate that the largest
variance in democracy is among regions, followed by countries. The estimates then
confirm the importance of properly correcting for serial correlation and accounting for
hard to model factors such as regional diffusion and demonstration effects.
27 Multiple intercepts are usually interpreted as offsets from a dropped group intercept. A
more efficient method, however, is to model these intercepts directly by placing a
common distribution around them.
33
Table 2. Mixed-Effects Analysis of Democratization, 1985-2007
Independent Variables UDS UDS UDS
Social globalization 0.180*** 0.180***(0.038) (0.038)
Freedom of movement 0.027*** 0.012 0.012(0.008) (0.008) (0.008)
Social globalization*freedom of movement
-0.040***(0.008)
Economic globalization 0.022 0.026(0.020) (0.019)
Political Globalization 0.019 0.021(0.018) (0.018)
Overall globalization 0.182***(0.033)
Overall globalization*freedom of movement
-0.045***(0.009)
Market inequality -0.010 -0.012 -0.016(0.018) (0.018) (0.018)
GDP per capita 0.253*** 0.250*** 0.280***(0.058) (0.058) (0.056)
Oil rents -0.041*** -0.043*** -0.047***(0.014) (0.014) (0.014)
GDP growth 0.005 0.004 0.003(0.005) (0.005) (0.005)
Military population -0.101*** -0.102*** -0.104***(0.031) (0.031) (0.031)
Population density -0.125*** -0.134*** -0.130***(0.046) (0.046) (0.044)
Neighborhood 0.159*** 0.156*** 0.153***(0.036) (0.036) (0.036)
constant -0.119 -0.106 -0.103(0.097) (0.098) (0.098)
N 1937 1937 1937* p<0.1; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01, two-tailed tests. Standardized coefficients reported with standard errors in parentheses.
34
Substantively speaking, the results from the hierarchical model are somewhat
similar to the second stage of the instrumental variables estimation. But some important
differences emerge, both in terms of the magnitude of coefficients as well as their
significance. Regarding differences in magnitude, the coefficient for social globalization,
which was the largest in the second stage of the instrumental variables analysis, is now
smaller once it has been estimated more precisely. In addition, freedom of movement,
while maintaining its significance, has become smaller in size. This is nevertheless
expected since the latter is a policy variable while all other covariates reference structural
characteristics of countries. In the model where these two variables are interacted,
however, freedom of movement is itself insignificant while the interactive term is
negative and very statistically significant. Individual coefficients in interaction terms
refer to the effect of that variable when the other is zero. Hence, the regulation of travel
when social globalization is zero captures a scenario that is absent in our data – countries
with no social globalization. The interaction term, however, contains more information
than the coefficient can display and we thus explore it using marginal effects simulations.
Our simulations demonstrate that the marginal effect of social globalization is
always positive, albeit with a declining slope, indicating that at higher levels of travel
openness, each additional 1-unit increase in social globalization yields smaller increases
in democracy. Each standard deviation increase in social globalization increases
democracy by 0.18 points, or 4.38%. This might seem like a small amount considering
how long it can take countries to increase their levels of social globalization, but the
marginal effect is belied by the pairwise correlation between this variable and democracy
35
in our sample (r=0.727; p<0.000), almost identical to the pairwise correlation between
the natural log of GDP and democracy (r=0.730; p<0.000).
Higher levels of the freedom of movement variable increase democracy at low
levels of social globalization. This offers support for our claim that autocracies most at
risk when they liberalize travel are those that are least socially globalized, although the
substantive effects of this variable are smaller than those of social globalization.
Conversely, the marginal effect of travel openness is negative at the highest levels of
social globalization. Most countries with high levels of social globalization are advanced
industrialized democracies. A few outlying autocracies (Belarus, Croatia, Jordan and
Singapore) receive high amounts of remittances or foreign aid and hence have high levels
of social globalization. Since they also restrict travel, they are responsible for the
negative marginal effects of freedom of movement. Freedom of movement, however, also
has important substantive effects on democracy considering its pairwise correlation with
UDS (r=0.533; p<0.000). This is much higher than the correlation between income
inequality and UDS (r=0.086; p<0.002), another variable much discussed in the literature
on democratization (Acemoglu and Robinson 2006; Boix 2003).
As expected, the largest positive influence on a country’s political system is the
level of development, while in the negative direction it is population density. But the
effects of social globalization are larger than those of other prominent candidates such as
economic globalization. Oil rents and military population also exert powerful negative
influences on democracy, as hypothesized.
Regarding statistical significance, political globalization, which had a positive and
significant effect on democracy in the instrumental variables analysis, now has an
36
insignificant effect. In addition, inequality, which was statistically significant in the
instrumental variables analysis, has now lost its significance, while the opposite has
occurred to GDP per capita. The findings are in line with recent work on the determinants
of democratization and democratic stability indicating that the level of economic
development has a stronger effect on regime transitions and consolidation than income
inequality (Kennedy 2010). Overall then, hierarchical modeling has reaffirmed the
importance of variables previously thought to affect the prospects for democracy such as
socio-economic development, military influence, and population pressures, while
establishing the importance of globalization and policies regarding the freedom of
movement.
As a check on the robustness of the results, we also estimated a model in which
all our diffusion variables are combined into an overall index of globalization (also
available from the KOF dataset). This model is reported to the right of the first two
models in Table 3. The results are largely consistent with those in columns 1 and 2. The
models all reveal that the economic component of globalization much emphasized in the
literature on regime transitions has a smaller and less significant effect on democracy
than its social component. Indeed, of all the globalization-induced diffusion effects,
social globalization is by far the most important.
Conclusion
Scholars studying migration and democracy have long sought to establish a
connection between emigration – in particular regime policies surrounding foreign travel
– and democratic political reforms. The question is particularly relevant as autocracies in
37
the Middle East grapple with popular revolts motivated to some extent by societal
influences emanating beyond their borders. Our article is motivated by these concerns, in
particular the need to understand to what extent globalization affects the way in which
less democratic regimes formulate policies on foreign travel, and what effect such
policies have on these regimes.
We incorporated the core of Hirschman’s exit and voice model into our
conceptual framework, but also went beyond its rather simplistic mechanisms. While
Hirschman rightly anticipated that emigration would serve as a safety valve for
governments in authoritarian regimes, he did not entertain the possibility that social ties
that straddle national borders act in ways that can significantly affect a nation’s
democratic prospects. Hirschman’s conceptualization of exit and voice was limited to the
nation-state. We argued that globalization conditions the effects of migration and voice
on democratic political reforms. As countries become more socially integrated with the
outside, citizens are able to pressure their governments more effectively and elites are in
a better position to identify with and benefit from democratic reforms.
We believe we make an important contribution to work on the diffusion of norms,
technology, and institutions as well by presenting the most detailed picture of the effects
of international diffusion on democracy to date. Overall, our objective has been to extend
rather than to challenge previous research. Perhaps the most important paradox we have
uncovered is that although travel restrictions increase popular grievances against
autocracies, they also deprive citizens of resources to organize and mobilize collectively.
We have also uncovered a dilemma most likely pressing on the minds of authoritarian
38
elites: that as they integrate their countries ever more deeply with the outside world, it
becomes increasingly more difficult to maintain control over their restive populations.
Our research thus yields some important policy implications that democratic
governments, opposition activists in less democratic countries, and civil-society
democracy promoters would be well advised to follow. This is a well-trodden area and by
no means do we seek to supplant the knowledge and expertise that practitioners have
accumulated. Democracy promotion can also be quite challenging in the least democratic
settings. But our findings are clear that if the goal is ultimately to increase the prospects
for democracy in the least democratic nations of the world, one way to do it would be by
trying to increase the social globalization of the target country, which may not be
something outside actors can do directly, but through their economic and political
engagement, since both are associated with higher levels of social globalization.
39
Appendix A. Countries Included in the Analysis, 1985-2007
Albania Georgia NorwayAlgeria Germany West PakistanAngola Ghana PanamaArgentina Greece Papua New GuineaArmenia Guatemala ParaguayAustralia Haiti PeruAustria Honduras PhilippinesAzerbaijan Hungary PolandBangladesh India PortugalBelarus Indonesia RomaniaBelgium Iran RussiaBenin Ireland SenegalBolivia Israel SingaporeBotswana Italy SlovakiaBrazil Ivory Coast SloveniaBulgaria Jamaica South AfricaCambodia Japan SpainCameroon Jordan Sri LankaCanada Kazakhstan SwedenChad Kenya SwitzerlandChile Korea South SyriaChina Kyrgyzstan TajikistanColombia Latvia TanzaniaCongo, Republic of Lebanon ThailandCosta Rica Lithuania TogoCroatia Macedonia Trinidad and TobagoCyprus Malaysia TunisiaCzech Republic Mexico TurkeyDenmark Moldova TurkmenistanDominican Republic Mongolia UkraineEcuador Morocco United KingdomEgypt Mozambique United StatesEl Salvador Namibia UruguayEstonia Nepal VenezuelaFinland Netherlands VietnamFrance New Zealand YemenGabon Nicaragua Zambia
NigeriaNote: For publication along with the paper.
40
Appendix B. Alternative Proxy Variables for Instrumental Variables Analysis
-A country’s location in the world according to the regional classification in Brinks and
Coppedge (2006).
-The mean of all dyadic minimum, capital, and centroid distances, averaged over all
dyads for every country in the world. The more remote a country, the less globalized it
will be (Breunig, Cao, and Luedtke 2012). Data on distances comes from the CShapes
dataset, which includes information on three types of distances: minimum, centroid, and
capital. A centroid can be defined as the mean geographic position of all the points in the
coordinate space for a particular country (Weidmann, Kuse, and Gleditsch 2010, 99).
-The log of exports to advanced OECD democracies derived from the Correlates of War
Project Trade Data Set (Barbieri and Keshk 2012; Barbieri, Keshk, and Pollins 2009).
-Indexes of ethnic, linguistic and religious fractionalization. Data on social diversity,
which is expected to increase social globalization through cultural ties between a
country’s residents and those abroad, is derived from the QoG Standard Dataset (Teorell
et al. 2013).
- Time since independence expressed in years, and time since the last regime change, also
in years. Both are expected to increase social globalization by fomenting stability and
predictability. Instability and conflict, however, can also lead to strife that pushes
refugees and other migrants out of their homeland, making a country more socially
globalized. Data on the timing of independence comes from the Issue Correlates of War
(ICOW) Colonial History Data Set (Hensel 2009). Information on regime durability can
be downloaded from the Polity IV project website.
41
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