Politics of Greece

N Politics of Greece

G

reece also known as Hellas and officially the Hellenic Republic ( , Ellnik Dmokrata), is a country in southeastern Europe, situated on the southern end of the Balkan Peninsula. The country has land borders with Albania, the Republic of Macedonia and Bulgaria to the north, and Turkey to the east. The Aegean Sea lies to the east of mainland Greece, the Ionian Sea to the west, and the Mediterranean Sea to the south. Greece has the tenth longest coastline in the world at 14,880km (9,246mi) in length, featuring a vast number of islands (approximately 1400, of which 227 are inhabited), including Crete, the Dodecanese, the Cyclades, and the Ionian Islands among others. Eighty percent of Greece consists of mountains, of which Mount Olympus is the highest at 2,917m (9,570ft).

Modern Greece traces its roots to the civilization of ancient Greece, generally considered to be the cradle of Western civilization. As such, it is the birthplace of democracy, Western philosophy, the Olympic Games, Western literature and historiography, political science, major scientific and mathematical principles, and Western drama, including both tragedy and comedy. This legacy is partly reflected in the 17 UNESCO World Heritage Sites located in Greece.

A developed country with a very high Human Development Index and standard of living, Greece has been a member of what is now the European Union since 1981 and its Economic and Monetary Union since 2001, NATO since 1952, and the European Space Agency since 2005. It is also a founding member of the United Nations, the OECD, and the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization. Athens is the capital. Other major cities include Thessaloniki, Piraeus, Patras, Heraklion and Larissa.

History

Greece was the first area in Europe where advanced early civilizations emerged, beginning with the Cycladic civilization of the Aegean Sea, the Minoan civilization in Crete and then the Mycenaean civilization on the mainland. Later, city-states emerged across the Greek peninsula and spread to the shores of the Black Sea, South Italy and Asia Minor, reaching great levels of prosperity that resulted in an unprecedented cultural boom, that of classical Greece, expressed in architecture, drama, science and philosophy, and nurtured in Athens under a democratic environment.

Athens and Sparta led the way in repelling the Persian Empire in a series of battles. Both were later overshadowed by Thebes and eventually Macedonia, with the latter under the guidance of Alexander the Great uniting and leading the Greek world to victory over the Persians.

The Hellenistic period was brought only partially to a close two centuries later with the establishment of Roman rule over Greek lands in 146 BC. Many Greeks migrated to Alexandria, Antioch, Seleucia and the many other new Hellenistic cities in Asia and Africa founded in Alexander's wake.

The subsequent mixture of Roman and Hellenic cultures took form in the establishment of the Byzantine Empire in 330 AD around Constantinople. Byzantium remained a major cultural and military power for the next 1,123 years, until the Fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Turks in 1453. On the eve of the Ottoman conquest, much of the Greek intelligentsia migrated to Italy and other parts of Europe not under Ottoman rule, playing a significant role in the Renaissance through the transmission of ancient Greek works to Western Europe. Nevertheless, the Ottoman millet system contributed to the cohesion of the Orthodox Greeks by segregating the various peoples within the empire based on religion, as the latter played an integral role in the formation of modern Greek identity.

After the Greek War of Independence, successfully waged against the Ottoman Empire from 1821 to 1829, the nascent Greek state was finally recognized under the London Protocol in 1830. In 1827, Ioannis Kapodistrias, from Corfu, was chosen as the first governor of the new Republic. However, following his assassination, the Great Powers installed a monarchy under Otto, of the Bavarian House of Wittelsbach. In 1843, an uprising forced the King to grant a constitution and a representative assembly.

Due to his unimpaired authoritarian rule, he was eventually dethroned in 1863 and replaced by Prince Vilhelm (William) of Denmark, who took the name George I and brought with him the Ionian Islands as a coronation gift from Britain. In 1877, Charilaos Trikoupis, who is attributed with the significant improvement of the country's infrastructure, curbed the power of the monarchy to interfere in the assembly by issuing the rule of vote of confidence to any potential prime minister.

20th century

As a result of the Balkan Wars, Greece increased the extent of its territory and population. In the following years, the struggle between King Constantine I and charismatic Prime Minister Eleftherios Venizelos over the country's foreign policy on the eve of World War I dominated the country's political scene, and divided the country into two opposed groups.

In the aftermath of WWI, Greece fought against Turkish nationalists led by Mustafa Kemal, a war which resulted in a massive population exchange between the two countries under the Treaty of Lausanne. According to various sources, several hundred thousand Pontic Greeks died during this period. Instability and successive coups d'tat marked the following era, which was overshadowed by the massive task of incorporating 1.5 million Greek refugees from Turkey into Greek society. The Greek population in Istanbul dropped from 300,000 at the turn of the century to around 3,000 in the city today.

On 28 October 1940 Fascist Italy demanded the surrender of Greece, but Greek dictator Ioannis Metaxas refused and in the following Greco-Italian War, Greece repelled Italian forces into Albania, giving the Allies their first victory over Axis forces on land. The country would eventually fall to urgently dispatched German forces during the Battle of Greece. The German occupiers nevertheless met serious challenges from the Greek Resistance. Over 100,000 civilians died from starvation during the winter of 194142. In 1943 virtually the entire Jewish population was deported to Nazi extermination camps.

After liberation, Greece experienced a bitter civil war between communist and anticommunist forces, which led to economic devastation and severe social tensions between rightists and largely communist leftists for the next 30 years. The next 20 years were characterized by marginalisation of the left in the political and social spheres but also by rapid economic growth, propelled in part by the Marshall Plan.

King Constantine's dismissal of George Papandreou's centrist government in July 1965 prompted a prolonged period of political turbulence which culminated in a coup d'tat on 21 April 1967 by the United States-backed Regime of the Colonels. The brutal suppression of the Athens Polytechnic uprising on 17 November 1973 sent shockwaves through the regime, and a counter-coup established Brigadier Dimitrios Ioannidis as dictator. On 20 July 1974, as Turkey invaded the island of Cyprus, the regime collapsed.

Former premier Konstantinos Karamanlis was invited back from Paris where he had lived in self-exile since 1963, marking the beginning of the Metapolitefsi era. On the 14 August 1974 Greek forces withdrew from the integrated military structure of NATO in protest at the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus. The first multiparty elections since 1964 were held on the first anniversary of the Polytechnic uprising. A democratic and republican constitution was promulgated on 11 June 1975 following a referendum which abolished the monarchy.

Meanwhile, Andreas Papandreou founded the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) in response to Karamanlis's conservative New Democracy party, with the two political formations alternating in government ever since. Greece rejoined NATO in 1980. Traditionally strained relations with neighbouring Turkey improved when successive earthquakes hit both nations in 1999, leading to the lifting of the Greek veto against Turkey's bid for EU membership.

Greece became the tenth member of the European Communities (subsequently subsumed by the European Union) on 1 January 1981, ushering in a period of remarkable and sustained economic growth. Widespread investments in industrial enterprises and heavy infrastructure, as well as funds from the European Union and growing revenues from tourism, shipping and a fast-growing service sector have raised the country's standard of living to unprecedented levels. The country adopted the euro in 2001 and successfully hosted the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens. However more recently it has suffered economically due to the post-2000s recession.

Government and politics

Greece is a parliamentary republic. The nominal head of state is the President of the Republic, who is elected by the Parliament for a five-year term. The current Constitution was drawn up and adopted by the Fifth Revisionary Parliament of the Hellenes and entered into force in 1975 after the fall of the military junta of 19671974. It has been revised twice since, in 1986 and in 2001. The Constitution, which consists of 120 articles, provides for a separation of powers into executive, legislative, and judicial branches, and grants extensive specific guarantees (further reinforced in 2001) of civil liberties and social rights.[30] Women's suffrage was guaranteed with a 1952 Constitutional amendment.

According to the Constitution, executive power is exercised by the President of the Republic and the Government. From the Constitutional amendment of 1986 the President's duties were curtailed to a significant extent, and they are now largely ceremonial; most political power thus lies in the hands of the Prime Minister. The position of Prime Minister, Greece's head of government, belongs to the current leader of the political party that can obtain a vote of confidence by the Parliament. The President of the Republic formally appoints the Prime Minister and, on his recommendation, appoints and dismisses the other members of the Cabinet.

Legislative powers are exercised by a 300-member elective unicameral Parliament. Statutes passed by the Parliament are promulgated by the President of the Republic. Parliamentary elections are held every four years, but the President of the Republic is obliged to dissolve the Parliament earlier on the proposal of the Cabinet, in view of dealing with a national issue of exceptional importance. The President is also obliged to dissolve the Parliament earlier, if the opposition manages to pass a motion of no confidence.

The Judiciary is independent of the executive and the legislature and comprises three Supreme Courts: the Court of Cassation ( ), the Council of State ( ) and the Court of Auditors ( ). The Judiciary system is also composed of civil courts, which judge civil and penal cases and administrative courts, which judge disputes between the citizens and the Greek administrative authorities.

Executive branch

The Cabinet of Greece includes the heads of all executive ministries, appointed by the president on the recommendation of the prime minister.

The President of the Republic is elected by the Parliament for a five-year term (election last held 7 March 2005), and a maximum of two terms in office. When a presidential term expires, Parliament votes to elect the new President. In the first two votes, a majority (200 votes) is necessary. The third and final vote requires a 3/5 (180 votes) majority. If the third vote is fruitless, Parliament is dissolved and elections are proclaimed by the outgoing President within the next 30 days. In the new Parliament, the election for President is repeated immediately with a 3/5 majority required for the initial vote, an absolute majority for the second one (151 votes) and a simple majority for the third and final one. The system is so designed as to promote consensus Presidential candidates among the main political parties. The president has the power to declare war, to grant pardon and to conclude agreements of peace, alliance, and participation in international organizations; upon the request of the government a simple parliamentary majority is required to ratify such actions, agreements, or treaties. An absolute or a three-fifths majority is required in exceptional cases (for example, the accession into the EU needed a 3/5 majority). The president can also exercise certain emergency powers, which must be countersigned by the appropriate cabinet minister. Changes to the constitution in 1986 limited the president's political powers. As a result, the president may not dissolve parliament, dismiss the government, suspend certain articles of the constitution, issue a proclamation or declare a state of siege without countersigning by the prime minister or the appropriate cabinet minister. To call a referendum, he must obtain approval from parliament.

The prime minister is elected by the people and he or she is usually the leader of the party controlling the absolute majority of Parliament members. According to the Constitution, the prime minister safeguards the unity of the government and directs its activities. He or she is the most powerful person of the Greek political system and he or she recommendates to the President the appointment or the dismissal of the ministers.

Greek parliamentary politics hinge upon the principle of the "dedilomeni", the "declared confidence" of Parliament to the Prime Minister and his/her administration. This means that the President of the Republic is bound to appoint as Prime Minister a person who will be approved by a majority of the Parliament's members (i.e. 151 votes). With the current electoral system, it is the leader of the party gaining a plurality of the votes in the Parliamentary elections who gets appointed Prime Minister. An administration may, at any time, seek a "vote of confidence"; conversely, a number of Members of Parliament may ask that a "vote of reproach" be taken. Both are rare occurrences with usually predictable outcomes as voting outside the party line happens very seldom.

On 4 October 2009, George Papandreou, president of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement party and son and grandson of Prime Ministers, was elected as the new Prime Minister of Greece, following five years of government under New Democracy leader Kostas Karamanlis, the nephew of long-time Prime Minister and President Konstantinos Karamanlis.

Legislative branch

Greece elects a legislature by universal suffrage of all citizens over the age of 18. The Greek Parliament (Vouli ton Ellinon) has 300 members, elected for a four-year term by a system of reinforced proportional representation in 48 multi-seat constituencies, 8 single-seat constituencies and a single nationwide list. 288 of the 300 seats are determined by constituency voting, and voters may select the candidate or candidates of their choice by marking their name on the party ballot. The remaining 12 seats are filled from nationwide party lists on a top-down basis and based on the proportion of the total vote each party received. Greece uses a complex reinforced proportional representation electoral system which discourages splinter parties and makes a parliamentary majority possible even if the leading party falls short of a majority of the popular vote. Under the current electoral law, any single party must receive at least a 3% nationwide vote tally in order to elect Members of Parliament (the so-called "3% threshold"). The law in its current form favors the first past the post party to achieve an absolute (151 parliamentary seats) majority, provided it receives a 41%+ nationwide vote. This is touted to enhance governmental stability. The electoral law can be changed by simple parliamentary majority, but a law so changed only becomes enforced in the election following the upcoming one, unless it is voted by the Greek Parliament with a majority of of the total number of the deputies.

Judicial branch

In Greece the judicial branch is divided into civil and administrative courts. Civil courts judge civil and penal cases, whereas administrative courts judge administrative cases, namely disputes between the citizens and the State.

The judicial system of Greece comprises three Supreme Courts: the Court of Cassation ( ), the Council of State ( ) and the Chamber of Accounts ( ). These high courts are composed of professional judges, graduates of the National School of Judges. The way the judges are gradually promoted, until they become members of the Supreme Courts, is defined by the Constitution and the existing laws. The presidents and the vice-presidents of the three Supreme Courts are chosen by the Cabinet of Greece among the serving members of each of the Supreme Courts.

The Court of Cassation is the supreme civil and penal court, whereas the Council of State is the supreme administrative court. The Chamber of Accounts has an exclusive jurisdiction over certain administrative areas (for example it judges disputes arising from the legislation regulating the pensions of civil servants) and its decisions are irrevocable. This means that they are not judged at second instance by the Council of State.Sometimes, the Supreme Courts take contradictory decisions or they judge differently the constitutionality of a legal provision. These disputes are resolved by the Supreme Special Court, whose composition and jurisdiction is regulated by the Constitution (article 100). As its name reveals, this court is not permanent and it sits when a special case belonging to its jurisdiction arises. When the Supreme Special Court sits, it comprises eleven members: the Presidents of the three Supreme Courts, four members of the Court of Cassation and four members of the Council of State. When it judges the constitutionality of a law or resolves the disputes between Supreme Courts, its composition comprises two more members: two professors of the Law Schools of Greece. The Supreme Special Court is the only court which can declare an unconstitutional legal provision as "powerless" (something like "null and void"), while the three Supreme Courts can only declare an unconstitutional legal provision as "inapplicable" to that particular case. The Supreme Special Court is also the Supreme Electoral Court, judging pleas against the legality of the legislative elections.

Administrative divisions

Greece is divided in 13 peripheries, further divided into 51 prefectures, the "Nomoi". The prefectures are each headed by a prefect (the "Nomarch"), who is elected by direct popular vote. The thirteen regional administrative districts (peripheries), each including a number of prefectures are headed by a regional governor (the "Peripheriarch"), appointed by the Minister of the Interior. In northern Greece and in greater Athens, three areas have an additional administrative position between the nomarch and peripheriarch. This official, known as the Chair of the prefectural local authorities or "superprefect" (the "Hypernomarch"), is elected by direct popular vote together with the nomarchs she or he supervises. Although municipalities and villages have elected officials, they do not have an adequate independent revenue base and must depend on the central government budget for a large part of their financial needs. Consequently they are subject to numerous central government controls. This also leads to extremely low municipal taxes (usually around 0.2% or less).

Greece also includes one autonomous region, the Monastic Community of the Holy Mountain, Mount Athos.

Political issues

Education

Under the Greek constitution, education is the responsibility of the state. Most Greeks attend public primary and secondary schools. There are a few private schools, which must meet the standard curriculum of and are supervised by the Ministry of Education. The Ministry of Education oversees and directs every aspect of the public education process at all levels, including hiring all teachers and professors and producing all required textbooks.

A recent issue concerning education in Greece is the institutionalisation of private universities. According to the constitution only state-run universities operate on the land. However,in the recent years many foreign private universities have established branches in Greece, offering Bachelor's level degrees, thus creating a legal contradiction between the Greek constitution and the EU laws allowing foreign companies to operate anywhere in the Union. Additionally, every year, tens of thousands of Greek students are not accepted to the state-run University system, become "educational immigrants" to other countries' Higher Education institutions, where they move to study. This has created a chronic problem for Greece, in terms of loss of capital as well as human resources, since many of those students opt to seek employment in the countries they studied, after completing their studies. It is characteristic that in 2006, Greece, with 11.5 million inhabitants, was fourth in the world in terms of student export in absolute numbers, with 60,000 students abroad, while the first country in this regard, People's Republic of China of over 1,3 billion inhabitants, had 100,000 students abroad. In terms of students abroad as a percent of the general population, Greece is by far the leading country, with 5,250 students per million, compared to second Malaysia's 1,780 students per million inhabitants.

Citing these problems as a result of the state's monopoly on Higher Education, New Democracy committed to amending the constitution, in order to allow private universities to operate in Greece on a non-profit basis. This proposal was rejected by then-ruling PASOK in the late nineties, and thus could not muster the support necessary to be put to vote on the constitutional amendment of 2001. However, PASOK has since changed its stance, and now also supports a constitutional provision for the creation of private Universities on a non-profit basis. This proposal continues to encounter the fierce opposition of the Left parties and part of the academic community, both professors and students.

At the outset of 2006, prime minister Kostas Karamanlis announced the initiative of his government for a new amendment of the Constitution. According to his assertion one of the main issues of this amendment (the second within less than 10 years) is going to be the creation of "non-state owned" universities.

Religion

The Greek Orthodox Church is under the protection of the State, which pays the clergy's salaries, and Orthodox Christianity is the "prevailing" religion of Greece according to the Constitution. The Greek Orthodox Church is self-governing but under the spiritual guidance of the Ecumenical Patriarch in Constantinople. Freedom of religious beliefs is guaranteed by the Constitution, but "proselytism" is officially illegal. According to the most recent Eurostat "Eurobarometer" poll, in 2005, 81% of Greek citizens responded that "they believe there is a God", whereas 16% answered that "they believe there is some sort of spirit or life force" and only 3% that "they do not believe there is a God, spirit, nor life force". This would make Greece one of the most religious countries in the European Union of 25 members, after Malta and Cyprus.

The Muslim minority, concentrated in Thrace, was given legal status by provisions of the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 and is Greece's only officially recognized religious minority. There are small Roman Catholic communities on some of the Cyclades and the Ionian Islands, remnants of the long Venetian rule over the islands. The recent influx of (mostly illegal) immigrants from Eastern Europe and the Third World has an expectedly varied multi-religious profile (Roman Catholic, Muslim, Hindu etc).

During the 2001 constitutional amendment, complete separation of church and state was proposed, but the two major parties, ND and PASOK, decided not to open this controversial matter, which clashes with both the population and the clergy. For example, numerous protests occurred over the removal of the Religious Denomination entry from the National ID card in 2000.

Media

In comparative NGO studies, Greece ranks among the highest in press freedom worldwide.

The Greek media, collectively, is a very influential institution usually aggressive, sensationalist. As with many countries, most of the media are owned by businesses with commercial interests in other sectors of the economy. There are often accusations of newspapers, magazines, and radio and TV channels being used to promote their commercial enterprises as well as to seek political influence.

In 1994, the Ministry of Press and Media was established to deal with media and communication issues. ERT S.A., a public corporation supervised by the Minister of Press, operates three national television channels and five national radio channels. The Minister of Press also serves as the primary government spokesperson.

The Secretary General of Press and Information prepares the semi-official Athens News Agency (ANA) Bulletin. Along with AP and Reuters, this is a primary source of information for the Greek press. The Ministry of Press and Information also issues the semi-official Macedonian News Agency (MPE) Bulletin, which is distributed throughout the Balkan region. For international news, CNN is a particular influence in the Greek market; the major TV channels often use it as a source. State and private TV stations also use Eurovision and Visnews as sources. While few papers and stations have overseas correspondents, those few correspondents abroad can be very influential.

In 1988, a new law provided the legal framework for the establishment of private radio stations and, in 1989, private TV stations. According to the law, supervision of radio and television is exercised by the National Radio and Television Council. In practice, however, official licensing has been delayed for many years. Because of this, there has been a proliferation of private radio and TV stations, as well as European satellite channels, including Euronews. More than 1,000 radio stations were operating before March 2002, when the government implemented plans to reallocate TV frequencies and issue licenses as authorized by the 1993 Media Law, effectively reducing this number.

Military Service

9 months for all males of 18 years of age; Compulsory with fines and imprisonment if denied, but neither fine nor imprisonment has been imposed since 1994, where the last warrant against a draft-dodger was issued. Members of families with 3 children serve a reduced time of 6 months. Military service can also be substituted with a longer public service, which by the standards of Amnesty International, ought to be considered punitive as it is twice as long as the regular tour of duty. Limited steps have been taken to turn the Greek military into a semi-professional army in the last years, leading to the gradual reduction of the service from 18 to 12 to 9 months and the inclusion of a greater number of professional military personnel in most vertices of the force. Recent developments, though, within the anti-conscription movement in Greece, such as the high death rate from suicides during service and work-related accidents, such as the Manitsa incident, combined with a high rate of draft-dodging, have advanced the idea that mandatory conscription should be abolished and an all-professional/all-volunteer army should be put in place.

Military Spending

Greece directs approximately 4.3% of its GDP to military expenditures, the 2nd highest percentage in Europe (behind the Republic of Macedonia). In absolute numbers the Greek military budget ranked 28th in the world in 2005. By the same measure, Greek military budget ranked 6th in the Mediterranean basin (behind France, Italy, Turkey, Israel and Spain) and 2nd (behind Turkey) in its immediate vicinity, the Balkans.[5] It must be noted that Greek arms purchasing is among the highest in the world: Greece ranked 3rd in the world in 2004.

These figures are explained in the light of the arms race between Greece and Turkey with key issues being the Cyprus dispute and disagreement over sovereignty of certain islets of the Aegean. For more information see Greco-Turkish relations. Reversly, the foreign relations of Greece as well as many internal policy decisions are largely affected by its arms purchases. The United States, being the major arms seller to Greece has been known to actively intervene in military spending decisions made by the Greek government. The US has at times actively stepped in to help avoid large scale crisis, as in the case of the Imia-Kardak crisis.

The reduction of military spending has long been an issue in Greek politics. The former prime minister, Kostas Karamanlis had proposed a reduction to military spending through a "Defence Eurozone", referring to the European Security and Defence Policy. The previous PASOK administration, also planned on reducing military spending prior to its failure to be re-elected in 2004, while PASOK politicians usually refer to money saved from reducing military spending as a "peace dividend" (" "). The parties of the Left, KKE and Synaspismos, have been vocal in condemning military spending. Regarding the purchase of 30 F-16 and 333 Leopard tanks in 2005, both parties criticized the New Democracy administration for spending money on weapons while doing nothing to relieve the lower classes and said that high military spending "does not correspond to the real needs of the country but is carried out according to NATO planning and to serve weapon manufacturers and the countries that host them".

Pulitika ng Gresya

Gresya kilala rin bilang Hellas at ang opisyal na Republika ng Elenika ( , Ellnik Dmokrata), ay isang bansa sa timog-kanluran ng Europa at matatagpuan sa dulo ng Peninsula ng Balkan. Ang bansang ito ay napapalibutan ng ibat ibang bansa tulad ng Albanya, Republika ng Masedonya, at Bulgarya sa hilaga, at Turkiya sa silangan. Ang mga katawang tubig na pumapalibot sa Gresya ay ang dagat ng Aegean na matatagpuan sa silangan, dagat ng Ionian sa kanluran, at ang Dagat Mediteraneo sa timog. Ang Gresya ay ika-sampu sa may pinakamahabang baybayin sa mundo na may habang 14,880 kilometro, na mayroong ibat ibang isla (tinatayang 1,400 kung saan 227 ang may naninirahan), kabilang ang Crete, ang Dodecenese, ang Cyclades, at iba pang isla ng Dagat Ionia. Tinatayang may 80% ng Gresya ay bundok, na kung saan ang Bundok Olympus ang pinakamataas sa sukat na 2,917 metro.

Ang Gresya ay tinaguriang Duyan ng Sibilisasyong Kanluranin at kung saan unang nagmula ang ideya ng demokrasya, pilosopiyang kanluranin, palarong Olimpiko, panitikang kanluranin, agham pampulitika, at mga pangunahing kaalaman sa matematika at siyensiya, at teatrong kanluranin. Ang mga pamanang ito ay matatagpuan sa 17 UNESCO World Heritage Sites na matatagpuan sa Gresya.

Kabilang sa Unyong Europeo ang Gresya simula pa noong 1981 at kabilang din sa Economic and Monetary Union noong 2001, NATO noong 1952, at European Space Agency noong 2005. Ang bansang Gresya ay maunlad dahil mayroon itong mataas na Human Development Index. Ito din ay isa sa mga tagapagtaguyod na miyembro ng Mga Nagkakaisang Bansa, ang OECD, at anf Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization. Ang Atenas ay nagsisilbing kabisera ng bansa at ang ibang pangunahing lungsod ng bansa ay ang Tesalonika, Patras, Piraeus, Heraklion at Larisa.

Kasaysayang Pulitikal ng Gresya

Sa Gresya unang nagkaroon ng mataas na antas ng sinaunang sibilisasyon sa Europa, at ilan sa mga ito ang Sikladikong sibilisasyon ng Dagat Aegean, ang sibilisasyon ng Minoan sa Crete, at ang kabihasnang Miseno. Kalaunan ay lumawak ang kabihasnang ito sa ibat ibang parte ng Dagat Itim, timog ng Italya, at Asya Menor, na kung saan umunlad ng higit ang mga sinaunang siyudad ng Gresya sa aspetong arkitektura, teatro, siyensiya, at pilosopiya partikular sa lungsod ng Atenas sa ilalim ng demokrasiyang pamumuno.

Ang mga nangungunang lungsod noong klasikong panahon ng Gresya, ang Atenas at Sparta, ang nanguna sa pagtaboy sa mga mananakop na Persyano sa magkakasunod na labanan. Kalaunan ay natabunan ang dalawang lungsod na ito ng isa pang lungsod na Tebes. Dahil sa pagkakawatakwatak at pagaaway-away ng mga taga Gresya ay madali silang nasakop ng dayuhang Masedonya sa pangunguna ni Alexander ang Dakila at nagawa niyang pagisahin muli ang Gresya at manalo laban sa mga Persyano.

Ang tagumpay na ito ay nagtagal lamang ng dalawang siglo pagkatapos ng pananakop ng Romano sa mga lupain ng Gresya noong 146 BC. Maraming mamamayang Griyego ang lumipat ng tirahan sa Alexandria, Antioch, Seleucia at iba pang Elenistikong lungsod sa Asya at Aprika na naitatag noong pagkamatay ni Alexander.

Dahil sa pagkakahalo ng kulturang Romano at kulturang Elenistiko, naitatag ang Imperyong Byzantine noong 330 AD at ang Constantinople ang nagsilbing kabisera nito. Nagsilbing pangunahing lakas ang kultural at militar na aspeto ng Byzantium ng 1,123 taon, ngunit bumagsak din ito noong maganap ang makasaysayang Pagbagsak ng Constantinople sa kamay ng mga Turkong Ottoman noong 1453. Bago maganap ang pagsakop ng mga Turko sa Constantinople ay nagawang lumikas ng mga Griyegong intelehensiya sa Italya at iba pang bansa sa Europa na di nasakop ng mga Turkong Ottoman at nagbigay ng mahalagang kontribusyon noong Panahon ng Renasimiyento o Muling Pagsilang sa pamamagitan ng pagimpluwensiya ng sinaunang sining ng Gresya sa Kanlurang Europa. Gayun pa man, ang Sistemang Millet ng mga Ottoman ay naging malaking kontribusyon upang mapagisa ang mga Griyegong Orthodox sa pamamagitan ng pagbubukod ng tao ayon sa kanilang relihiyon at paniniwala, at kalaunan ay naging mahalagang salik sa pagkakabuklod buklod ng modernong pagkakakilanlan ng mga Griyego.

Pagkatapos ng Griyegong Rebolusyon na kumalaban sa Imperyong Ottoman para sa kalayaan noong 1821 hanggang 1829, amg unti-unting pagusbong ng estadong Griyego ay kinilala sa ilalim ng London Protocol nong 1830. Noong 1827, si Ionnis Kapodistrias ng Corfu ay napili bilang unang gobernador ng bagong Republika ng Gresya. Ngunit, kasunod ng pagpatay kay Kapodistrias, ang mga makakapangyarihang bansa ng panahong iyon ay nagtalaga ng monarkiya sa pamumuno ni Otto ng Bavaria. Noong 1843, sumiklab ang isang himagsikan upang sapilitang ipagkaloob ng hari ang saligang batas at isang kinatawan sa kapulungan ng mga mambabatas.

Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

Ancient lessons for the 21st century

I doubt seriously whether a man can think with full wisdom and with deep convictions regarding certain of the

basic international issues of today who has not at least reviewed in his mind the period of the Peloponnesian War

and the fall of Athens. George Marshall 1

1. Introduction

After the end of the Cold War, international relations seem to have reached an even higher de-

gree of complexity than George Marshall was thinking of while uttering these words. The study

of Thucydides History of the Peloponnesian War might indeed be one of the few remedies to

fully comprehend the current state of global affairs. Assuming that the similarities between the

Hellenic world and the present state of global affairs constitute a sufficient analogy despite all

obvious comparative flaws and Thucydides deficiencies, this paper aims to compare the Sicilian

expedition of the Athenians with the Middle East Policy of the outgoing US administration under

George W. Bush and draw lessons from it for the future. Being intended for readers with a stra-

tegic mindset, this paper leaves morality aside and relies on the national interest as the prime

driver of state actions so that moral judgements are entirely left to the readers discretion.

Concurring with Robert Kaplan that Thucydides is the surest guide to what we are likely to face

in the early decades of the twenty-first century2, this article aims to reduce the complexity of

current international affairs by historic analogy and comparative analysis in order to give answers

to strategic questions of today resembling the ones the Athenians faced while embarking on the

Sicilian expedition as well as during the fateful siege of Syracuse.

2. Comparative Analysis

Up to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union, the usual comparison of

ancient Athens and post-WW2 USA contrasted the dualism between Athens and Sparta with the

bipolarity of the Cold War. In this comparative analysis a new approach is taken:

Let us assume the US still resembles Athens, but Russia looks more like the beaten Persian King-

dom, a wounded giant with vast resources, still meddling in world affairs but on a restricted scale

and preoccupied with domestic problems despite its superpower ambitions. As protection from

Persia is no longer needed, todays Athenian Allies question the usefulness of a Cold War alliance

like NATO that bears similarities with the outdated Delian League. Similarly Athens struggled to

enforce the tribute payments in troops and money while being confronted with the stubborn re-

luctance of its allies to participate in military ventures and common defence policies.

Following this analogy, todays Sparta should be China, which is challenging US hegemony by

growing its economic and military strength in a situation that is ready to erupt at hotspots like

Taiwan and North Korea and thus resembling the time of the treacherous peace of Nicias. While

present day Sparta becomes the new protector of nations like Cuba and Sudan as well as inciting

American allies to revolt, e.g. by investing in Latin America, contemporary Athens embarks on

a venture that resembles the Sicilian expedition.

1 George Marshall quoted after W.R. Connor, Thucydides, Princeton 1984, p.3.

2 Robert Kaplan, Warrior Politics-Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos, Random House 2002, p.22.

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Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

The perception of ancient Sicily in Athenian eyes as strange, remote and unknown was probably

similar to the American view of the Middle East today. The Athenians believed the tales of glory

and riches to be gained in Sicily and from there in Carthage, Italy, and further, so that they sent

half of their fleet and army to a foreign land that proved to be difficult to conquer and control.

Syracuse, the leading city in Sicily of that time, was put under siege after a few neighboring cities

were conquered or won over with concessions; a situation that resembles the present day em-

bargo and encirclement of Iran in the Middle East.

Despite being distorted by almost 2500 years of history, different geography, and other obvious

pitfalls, new insights and valuable lessons from antiquity might be drawn from this strategic exer-

cise. Whether the analogy actually holds and thus allows foreign policy recommendations for the

international relations of the 21st century shall be judged by the reader after indulging in this

comparative analysis.

2.1 Power Balance

Whether the power balance of the international system in ancient Greece as well as in todays

world can be best described as unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar is openly debated, but not central

to this comparison. What matters though, is the delicate balance of power, which might be

shaken or significantly altered by major force projection abroad. Both the ancient Hellenic world

and the global community of the 21st century have found only imperfect ways to reconcile their

conflicts of interest, demonstrated by the current difficulties to reform the UN Security Council

or the ancient quarrels around the Olympic Games and the oracle of Delphi. In order to compare

the power balance across almost 2500 years of history, it is most promising to analyze the roles of

the hegemon, the allies, the neutrals, and the adversaries separately.

2.1.1 Hegemon

As hegemony, in the sense of dominance of one group over other groups, with or without the

threat of force, has been a semi-overtly declared objective of both ancient Athens3 and contem-

porary USA4, it is considered reasonable to label both as hegemons in their historic context. Fur-

thermore, for comparisons sake, the term empire in the sense of sea-based empire (thalas-

socracy), which may feature looser structures and more scattered territories, can be used both for

Athens and America.5

Whether they perceive themselves as imperial or are regarded as such by their contemporaries is a

highly controversial issue. In both cases, official denials of empire contrast sharply with openly

expressed ambitions for global hegemony. Nevertheless, they both inherited their empire by de-

fending themselves and their allies against foreign threats (Persia and the Soviet Union respec-

tively) that were defeated with tremendous effort.

Fear of losing the dominant position, greed for economic riches and glory on the battle field were

mentioned by Thucydides6 in ancient times as prime motives for extending an empire even fur-

ther and could have their fair share of motivation still today.

3 See Cleons speech (II,36) and Alcibiades speech (IV,18).

4 See Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, 1998, and

http://newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf.

5 Despite the notional differences, the terms hegemony and empire will be used interchangeably in this paper.

6 Fear of Persia was our chief motive, ...our own honour and our own interest. (Thucydides I,75).

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Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

Fear, as the main reason driver for hegemonic behaviour, generates arguments of imperial neces-

sity, especially for military activities. Athens and America are naval powers that rule the waves (as

well as air and space in todays world) to a large extent and are thus able to project their military

and economic power to every corner of their respective world, that dwarf the capabilities of all

rivalling states.

Greed for more economic riches seems similarly important as a reason to expand an empire. As

both live(d) from trade and enjoy(ed) unparalleled economic power that is (was) facilitated by

free trade with the Allies, isolationism is as impossible for the US today as it was for ancient Ath-

ens. Trade deficits as well as fiscal deficits, though, constituted already back then a danger to trad-

ing nations and incited hegemons to use force to even out trade imbalances.

Glory, as the third motivation for imperial expansion, is often sought by aspiring individuals,

who are likely to get drunk with power, or even by the entire population, if the masses are in-

flamed to agitators to indulge in collective hubris that often brushes away prudent voices as un-

patriotic.

The legitimacy as the leader of the respective free world earned from the protection from a

foreign threat is not only likely to wear out over time, but also to diminish if there are cases of

lacking consistency and double standards as well as acts of atrocity. Regardless of an initial per-

ception as protector, hegemonic behavior with a lack of moderation can easily be perceived as

imperial and resented as tyrannical.

Similarly to ancient Athens, the US today is widely regarded in the Middle East as a crusading

democracy that preaches the values of its political system and tries to impose them on the rest

of the world while expanding its zone of influence. As long as former adversaries or neutrals de-

cide to join the international security and economic system, which was designed by the hegemon

for his allies, the empire increases in attractiveness.

2.1.2 Allies

Once the binding foreign threat has decreased or even vanished, any asymmetric security alliance

that was conceived along the principle protection for obedience lacks purpose and substance.

While the original hegemon cannot be content with a role as primus inter pares, the alliance

members are often reluctant to continue with tribute payments and compliance to the hegemonic

rules when protection is no longer needed. As this change of interest is likely to put the whole al-

liance and thus the empire at risk, a hegemon needs to enforce obedience.

That is why Athens resorted to putting pressure on doubtful allies by taking hostages, severely

punishing stubborn neutrals like Melos for shunning the Delian League, and destroying cities of

recalcitrant allies like Scione and Potidaea for having revolted. This earned ancient Athens signifi-

cant fear and hatred in return, which might have been to a certain extent intended as these senti-

ments often serve as the best glue for empire. It seems to be a futile effort in this context to

compare ancient Anti-Athenianism with current Anti-Americanism further, but at least the re-

spective alliance politics deserve a closer look.

During the Cold War, NATO and other US-led alliances served their purpose against the Soviet

Union just like the Delian League did against the Great King of Persia. Protection was offered

for compliance to the alliance rules as well as tribute payments in form of money and troops for

military campaigns. Similarly, the protective hegemony of the US was accepted as benign by its

European and Asian Allies during the Cold War, not to speak of Israel, Georgia, Egypt, Jordan,

and Saudi-Arabia who continue to be highly dependent on US financial aid and/or military pro-

tection.

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Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

After most of the permanent and temporal members of the UN Security Council denied interna-

tional legitimacy for the American use of force against Iraq, only Great Britain, Australia, Israel

and few continental Europeans were perceived as true allies. Belgium, Germany, Turkey, Canada,

Mexico, and even Chile had chosen to remain neutral while France was even suspicious of being

an enemy.7 The imperial backlash was poignantly expressed by Condoleeza Rice by ordering to

punish France, ignore Germany, and forgive Russia8 as well as Donald Rumsfeld by dividing

up complying and non-complying European Allies into New Europe and Old Europe9.

2.1.3 Neutrals

For any hegemon, neutral powers are difficult to tolerate and constitute a dangerous precedent,

as allies might prefer to remain neutral themselves instead of following the lead of the hegemon.

In times of war, it becomes an imperial necessity to have the allies closely aligned and more than

a nuisance if they prefer to stay neutral. That is why Athens so fervently opposed Melian neutral-

ity and the US put so much pressure on its allies to join them in the invasion and occupation of

Iraq. When US-President George W. Bush used the biblical option scheme of with or against

us on the verge of the Iraqi invasion, a large number of American allies like France, Germany,

Belgium, and Turkey stubbornly rejected joining the so-called coalition of the willing, thus deny-

ing the US the usage of NATO. Spain, an original brother-in-arms, ousted the pro-American

government and the new prime-minister Zapatero delivered on his campaign promise to quickly

withdraw its troops from Iraq, thus accelerating the disintegration of the Iraq war alliance as

Latin American countries followed the Spanish example.

Just like many ancient Greek states half-heartedly accepted Athenian leadership and reluctantly

delivered on tribute requests, several countries have been walking the thin line between allegiance

to the US alliance system and neutrality, thereby continuously eroding the power base of Ameri-

can hegemony. Ancient Persia just like Russia today has mostly preferred to stay on the sidelines

and mind its own business, gathering strengths for future encounters. If directly asked to choose

between supporting and opposing the hegemon, neutral states tend to weigh their decision care-

fully, just like the Sicilian city of Camarina, that in the end opted for Syracuse. The Athenian Em-

pire was perceived more and more like a tyranny in the Hellenic World and Sparta was able to

disguise its own imperial ambitions by offering to free the Greeks from the oppressive rule of

Athens. By forcing democracy onto others while allowing undemocratic states to be their allies,

both Athens and America have not only applied double standards but also used the spreading of

democracy as a pretext for war.

2.1.4 Adversaries

With the main adversary Persia defeated and marginalized but still suspiciously present in the

Hellenic power game, Athens converted the Delian League into a hegemonic alliance by transfer-

ring the treasury from Delos to its own acropolis in 454 BC. The former ally Sparta then became

the principle adversary of Athens imperial ambitions. Despite naval superiority, Athens struggled

to contain Sparta in the Archidamian War, and then chose to sign a treacherous peace agreement

under Nicias. Persia continued to be a treacherous neutral and undeclared adversary, ready to tip

the power balance in favor of Sparta as it happened later in the Peloponnesian War.

7 See Tom Friedmans column Our War with France in the NYT on September 18, 2003 and John J. Millers

book Our Oldest Enemy: A History of America's Disastrous Relationship with France.", 2004.

8 Rice, Condoleezza: 2003 (http://de.wikiquote/wiki/Condoleezza_Rice).

9 Rumsfeld, Donald: 2003 (http://de.wikiquote/wiki/Donald_Rumsfeld).

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Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

Having outlived and subdued the Soviet Empire economically, the US still regards its successor

state, the Russian Federation, as a potential enemy that is officially neutral but occasionally shows

its teeth as the world could witness during the South Ossetian crisis and the dispute about

American missiles in Poland. China has often been declared as its main and long-term strategic

adversary10, which, unlike Sparta, has so far engaged mainly in economic competition. Russia,

China and most of the Central Asian States have been founding members of the Shanghai Coop-

eration Organization, a strategic partnership that includes joint military exercises. The current

US-Sino relationship therefore resembles a non-aggression agreement of Nician quality between

the two most potent powers and possible contenders for world leadership. It seems to benefit the

challenger much more though as China grows at nearly 10% per year while the US is allocating a

large part of its resources in the Middle East that looks more and more like ancient Sicily.

Further adversaries include North Korea, Saddam Husseins Iraq, and Iran that were marked with

the nemesis term Axis of Evil. As membership was reduced to two countries after the Iraq war,

Cuba, Zimbabwe, Belarus and Myanmar were admitted to the enlarged category of Outposts of

Tyranny while Syria, Sudan, and Venezuela are considered to be associated members of the ad-

versaries club, which the current US government has vowed to reduce by working down the list

with economic and military means. China assumes the Spartan role as the protector of non-

democratic oligarchies and dictators like the rogue states listed above by sending economic aid,

foreign direct investment, and military assistance and thus lessening the dependency on the US.11

2.2 Distant Expedition

Now that the comparison between ancient Greece and the current world has been drawn, it is

time to go into detail and focus on the crucial decision to embark on a distant expedition that

risked the existence of the Athenian Empire.12 In this sense, Sicily is comparable to the Middle

East both in significance and complexity with populous cities, different ethnicities and religions

ranging from indigenous Sicels to Dorian and Ionian colonists. Furthermore the control of the

abundant natural resources of Sicily promised to give Athens the decisive edge over Sparta in fu-

ture conflicts just like the US and China both value the control of oil, gas, and minerals as strate-

gic.

The Sicilian expedition in this sense resembles the recent invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, with

Iran surrounded and pressured by American forces and allies, under siege just like Syracuse, the

leading Sicilian state back then. Athens was never attacked by Sicilians like the US was targeted by

islamic terrorist groups, but Athens also had a previous incursion into Sicilian affairs while allying

with Egesta and Reghium against Messina and Syracuse. For comparisons sake the Sicilian anal-

ogy could be extended to local alliances with Egesta, Naxos, and Catana that could stand for Sa-

akashvili in Georgia, Israel, the Saudi Arabian royal family, the Hashemites in Jordan, or Mubarak

in Egypt.

The Athenians were counting on a shock-and-awe strategy, division of local powers and thus

docile cooperation of the Sicilians just like the Americans were expecting flowers and local col-

10 See e.g. Kaplan, Robert: How we would fight China (http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200506/kaplan).

11 China is currently investing, among others, in Cuban nickel (US$ 500m ) and Sudanese oil, and according to Hale

(National Interest 2004: Chinas Growing Appetites) safeguarding the latter with 4000 soldiers in Sudan.

12 if only you will make up your minds not to add to the Empire while the war is in progress, and not to go out of

your way to involve yourselves in new perils. (Thucydides, II, 144).

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Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

laboration from most Iraqis, not just some groups of Shiites and Kurds.13 Both sent large troop

contingents to a remote conflict zone, but still not enough to win a decisive victory over the re-

gional hegemon, who seems to be the sole beneficiary of the expedition. In the following para-

graphs this analogy shall be pursued in further detail starting with the reasons and objectives of

such a crucial expedition, continuing with the financial and military resources employed, and fin-

ishing with difficulties encountered on site.

2.2.1 Reasons and Objectives

In Athens there were supporters and opponents of the Sicilian expedition just like there are today

Americans in favor and against the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, US troop presence in the

Arab peninsula, unconditional support for Israel, an oil alliance with the Saudis, and potential in-

vasion or bombing of Iran.

The Athenian war hawks were led by Alcibiades who claimed that expansion of the Empire was a

necessity to preserve it and thus advocated the expedition to Sicily. Such a war, he promised,

would be easy and pay for itself and bring the Athenians control over the riches and much

glory.14 The moral grounds of coming to the help of Leontini and Segesta, that resemble Arab re-

gimes under threat from Islamic radicals in the first and Israel in the second case underlined the

arguments of expediency and rallied the war faction around Alcibiades.

Cautious people like Nicias were denounced as unpatriotic cowards and faced difficulties while

appealing to prudence and moderation. The American General Shinseki raised similar objections

as his ancient homologue about the difficulties of conquering and occupying a populous country,

the long supply lines, the increased number of troops needed and the missing exit strategy.15 Such

Cassandra-like warnings remained unheard in America just like in Athens, thus ignoring the leg-

acy of Pericles who had warned his fellow Athenians not to expand in times of war and thus risk-

ing the Empire inherited from the ancestors.16

By ruling over Sicily, the Athenians hoped to obtain a forward base to conquer Italy, Carthage,

and with those added resources also extend their hegemony over the Peloponnesus. Control over

Gulf oil and the Greater Middle East seem similarly important to the Americans in order to solid-

ify global hegemony and dwarf the Chinese threat. Both Athenians and Americans ignored the

fact that their main adversary was very likely to challenge their empire elsewhere in times of di-

version of resources by supporting the regional hegemon, i.e. Syracuse and Iran respectively. Iran,

as American archenemy since 1979 and rival for regional control in the Middle East, seems to be

the main target of American force projection just like Athens aimed mainly at Syracuse.

In Athens, war reasons were mixed with moral arguments as camouflage for power interests so

that the request for aid of Segesta, which is threatened by the Syracusan ally Seliunt served as a

pretext for the Sicilian expedition along with intentions to spread democracy by overthrowing

oligarchies and dictators in Sicily. The Middle Eastern parallel could be drawn with some stretch

of imagination by equating Iran to Syracuse, Segesta to Saudi-Arabia or Israel, Seliunt to Hizbol-

lah, Afghanistan and Iraq to Catana and Naxos, and maybe Syria to Camarina.

The debate at Camarina turns out to be a trial of Athenian imperialism where Athens has to jus-

tify its force projection and fails to win allies for the venture. The present day equivalent could be

13 it is even easier than that, since we shall also have ... peoples who...will join us in our attack on them (Thucy-

dides, VI,17).

14 See Alcibiades speech (Thucydides VI,16-23).

15 Shinseki, Eric 2003 (http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2003-02-25-iraq-us_x.htm).

16 ...this is no time for running risks or for grasping at a new empire before we have secured the one we have al-

ready. (Thucydides VI,10).

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Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

the UN Security Council, where the stubborn opposition of the so-called Gang of 417 (China,

Russia, France, and Germany) denied the US international legitimacy and forced it to go alone

only with a small so-called coalition of the willing and thus appearing as intruders in a remote

land where support of the inhabitants was as difficult to find as the claimed WMDs.

2.2.2 Military and Financial Resources

While it is daring to compare the Athenian economic and military power during the Peace of Ni-

cias with Americas power resources today, a few similarities are rather striking. Both rule the

waves as naval powers and dispose of elite ground forces, which are known to be almost invinci-

ble. The military technology and experience is far superior to any opponent, especially to others

than their main rival. The collective hubris, presumed invincibility and disregard for potential de-

feat as it had already happened at Plataea and Amphipolis as well as Vietnam, Beirut, and Somalia

respectively led both imperial powers to rely more on hope than preparation. Both ignored po-

tential dangers, lacked essentials like siege engines and cavalry as well as comparably present day

body armour and language skills. Both have sent the better half of their armed forces abroad,

comparing the Athenian navy and hoplites to the US Marines, the 82nd Airborne, and elite spe-

cial forces. Financially, Athens seemed better prepared for such a large-scale foreign venture with

war chest of 8000 and a crisis provision of 1000 talents. America also has to spend large amounts

of money on its force projection18, which is mainly debt financed and thus adding to the signifi-

cant budget deficit. Whether American state finances will be similarly affected as Athenian public

coffers will also depend on the difficulties encountered in the Middle East.

2.2.3 Difficulties

Obtaining supply bases in Italy, footholds in Sicily, as well as enough allies and local troops for

the war turned out to be very difficult for Athens, struggling to win over Catana and Naxos as

forward bases and continuously suffering from the defection of allies during the fatelful siege.

Syracuse managed to survive the blockade and the siege by motivating the population to build de-

fenses and counterwalls as well as to attack the besiegers from the rear. Furthermore, Sparta re-

sponded to the Syracusan request for help by sending the brilliant general Gylippus to Sicily,

equipped with ships and money, which could be equated to the protection of Iran in the UN Se-

curity Council and undermining of economic sanctions by China in order to alleviate the burden

of the US embargo.

The lack of Athenian cavalry and siege equipment is similar to the insufficient American body

armour and language skills that make soldiers life even more difficult in the the Middle East.

Both continuously need to send in reinforcements in order to control the situation but fail to

have enough troops on the ground in order to successfully complete the siege. In fact, the lack of

a Northern Front during the Iraq invasion due to Turkish revolt from the Allied camp as well

as the continued gas deals with Turkmenistan and oil swaps with Kazakhstan are an interesting

parallel to the inability of the Athenians to close the last end of the siege wall around Syracuse. In

fact, one could view the race between walls and counterwalls of the siege as similar to the Iranian

quest for nuclear weapons that would provide it with ultimate protection just like the Northern

counterwall to Epipolae allowed Syracuse to survive the siege and keep the supply roads open.

A direct assault on Syracuse which could be compared to a full invasion of Iran turned out to be

impossible for Athens due to the over-extension of the forces, the lack of cavalry, the low morale

17 See http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article873257.ece.

18 So far, the cost predictons range from US$ 565 bn (according to http://www.costofwar.com on Oct 25, 2008) to

US$ 3.000 bn as estimated by Joseph Stieglitz and Linda Bilmes (The Three Trillion Dollar War, 2008).

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Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

of the troops, as well as the wearing down and depreciation of the military material like ships in

the foreign climate just like US tanks and trucks today. On top of that, the devastating cavalry at-

tacks on the Athenian rear can be equated to todays insurgent attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan,

for which Iran gets a significant share of the blame.19 Besides that, the intelligence services of the

Sicilian opponents seemed to work with much more efficiency and local knowledge so that the

siege required more and more Athenian human and financial resources that were offset by Syra-

cusan cleverness and utter motivation to defend the home under siege.

Furthermore, Athens felt the continuous lack of civilians that serve as soldiers at home just like

reservists today. That is why it failed to send equivalent troops as reinforcements as the troop

level could not be reduced, which led to mutinies among the troops when things started getting

bad. As the contributions of allies tend to diminish at least proportionally to the war difficulties,

defections of local troops like the Sicels resemble the continuous disintegration of the coalition

of the willing.

The longer the siege lasted, the Athenian situation deteriorated with the window of opportunity

for a successful end of the expedition closing, if it was ever large enough. While the Athenians

suffered continuously from cavalry attacks in the rear and never managed to complete the siege

so that food and weapons could still enter the Syracuse, the US experiences despite the surge a

continuous lack of security, exemplified by the road from Baghdad to the airport, where convoys

are attacked regularly so that they have to be replaced by costly airlifts. The Athenians could have

returned home at several points of the siege but their commander Nicias feared a court-martial-

trial at home. As a consequence the besiegers became the besieged and risked the existence of

their entire army and navy by foregoing the warnings. The decision to rather stay than leave may

violate three principles of Clausewitzian military wisdom:20

1. Both Athens and America lost their liberty of action by being trapped in the siege of Syracuse

or the thankless deserts of Iraq and Afghanistan respectively. With the best forces pinned to the

ground and resources overstreched, it would not have been possible for Athens to parallely wage

a major second war against Sparta or one of its allies just like the US finds itself in the unpleasant

situation that it should not risk entering into another conflict, e.g. against North Korea.

2. Both hegemons didnt pay enough attention to the economy of forces by employing the

wrong troops at the wrong place. While the Athenians left their cavalry at home and employed

sailors for a siege, the Americans expose their transport troops to attacks from the rear and use

Marines for urban fighting.

3. The needed concentration of forces to win a major siege on Syracuse or Iran is lacked by

both Athens and the US as forces are spread thin and stuck in difficult terrain.

In the end, Athens not only failed to spread democracy, conquer Syracuse, and control the whole

island of Sicily with its resources but also suffered a humiliating defeat even after reinforcements

of the same magnitude as the first fleet were sent. The Sicilian venture not only didnt pay for it-

self but also resulted in the loss of the entire expeditionary force.

19 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6353489.stm.

20 See Clausewitz, On War.

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Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

2.3 Consequences

The American engagement in the Middle East has the potential for a failure of Sicilian magnitude

with dire consequences for imperial ambitions. Assuming that the Sicilian analogy holds, the

study of Thucydides should allow the Americans to reconsider their Middle East policy and avoid

internal and external consequences similar to the ones suffered by the Athenians.

2.3.1 Internal

As far as the military is concerned, a foreign expedition with a siege operation that lacks the

proper means to complete it successfully could have severe consequences for both troop and

domestic morale. The continuous need for new soldiers to be send abroad drains domestic re-

sources and might require the US to reinstitute the draft, just like Athens had to send citizens

from all echelons of society to fight a draining war abroad. The fatal expedition to Sicily might

bring similar horrors to the American home land as it brought to the Athenian agora if a strategic

bombing raid on nuclear sites or even a full invasion of Iran would be executed.

A continuation of the policies of the Bush administration by President Obama might prove to be

similarly detrimental for the American democracy as the inability of Nicias to change strategy for

the preservation of Athenian democracy. The continued siege of Syracuse had grave conse-

quences for the ancient cradle of democracy as the constitution was altered several times to give

power first to the 400 oligarchs, then to the 5000, and finally after total defeat and occupation of

the city to a Spartan-imposed dictatorship. Unlike Athens, the American Democracy didnt de-

bate much the necessity to venture into the Middle East but was bluntly deceived by its leader-

ship with the pretext of WMDs.

By keeping the population in a state of fear and imposing increased surveillance rules through the

Patriot Act and Homeland Security, the US risks to erode its democracy at home along with the

loss of moral leadership in the world because of the scandals at Guantnamo, Abu Ghraib, Ba-

gram, Diego Garcia, and elsewhere. It could prove risky and irresponsible to curtail the rule of

law and citizen rights, especially if the state of war is continuously declared. Having inherited a

democracy and an empire entails the obligation for successive generations to preserve it and

avoid disastrous external consequences as vindicated by Pericles. 21

2.3.2 External

The loss of almost the entire Athenian navy and all of the expeditionary force in Sicily had also

major strategic consequences for Athens as its allies saw this as a window of opportunity to re-

volt and were supported by Sparta which had built a navy in the meantime. Furthermore, Syra-

cuse managed to gain regional hegemony over Sicily by defeating Athens under its walls. Benefit-

ing from the increase in power and the glory of repulsing the foreign besiegers, the Syracusans

extended their influence over most of the island. Similarly to Athens, the US is risking its global

position by allocating its resources to unrewarding occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan as well as

by pursuing a hostile policy of regime change in Iran. In the meantime China is gathering forces,

building a high-sea navy22, and effectively protecting American foes like Cuba, North Korea, and

Iran. The latter regime has managed to survive the US siege of trade sanctions and political pres-

sure for 25 years and emerges as the main benefactor of the American invasion of Iraq that has

swept away Irans main regional adversary Saddam Hussein and instead allowed the pro-Iranian

Shiites to dominate Iraqi politics.

21 Our country is now at the verge of the greatest danger she has ever known (Thucydides VI,13).

22 NYT Article US rule of the Pacific waves faces China challenge by James Brooke from December 30th 2004.

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Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

The strategic dilemma of the US is that it cannot simply leave the Middle East as a more decisive

Athenian leader than Nicias might have done in Sicily. The crucial alliances with Israel, Egypt,

Jordan, and Saudi Arabia as well as the dependency on Mid Eastern oil require an imperial US to

support these countries financially and maintain a military presence. Staying the course as occu-

pants in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as besieging Iran with sanctions looks equally bleak as it is

likely to embolden the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and the Iraqi resistance while strengthening Iran as the

leading regional power, which both threatens the stability of the Saudi regime and thus the US oil

supplies.

At the same time China is enjoying the benefits of double digit growth and becomes stronger

every year. As for now, it seems to be losing less from the global financial crisis than the US,

which is heavily indebted to all other powers. The increasing independence of the European allies

that consider lifting the arms embargo on China could be compared to the tendency of Athenian

allies to revolt and change to the Spartan camp as soon as the Athenian defeat in Sicily became

tangible. That is why any American leader that aims to preserve the dominant position of the US

in the world cannot avoid considering all available options besides staying the course, which will

be further outlined in the conclusion of this paper.

3. Conclusion

It is normal for empires, even for exceptional ones like Athens, to peak in its relative power and

give way to more productive and ambitious societies. Such a decline might take as long as several

centuries as in the Roman case or be accelerated by imperial failures, just as the risky decision to

embark on a foreign venture like the Sicilian expedition proved to accelerate the Athenian de-

cline. An arrangement with Syracuse and an eventual noble retreat instead of a continued occupa-

tion of parts of Sicily and a devastating siege would have provided an opportunity to preserve the

empire at limited costs. There are multiple explanations why the Athenians embarked on the Si-

cilian expedition in the first place. Besides the fear of Spartan power and the greed for economic

riches from Sicily and beyond, there was also an important element of glory seeking, both collec-

tively and individually by leaders like Alcibiades. On top of that the Athenians were lured to Sicily

by Egesta and encouraged by Sicilian exiles. In any case, an empire should know best what is in

its interest and no rational person would expect it to do anything else but preserve its #1 posi-

tion, even if it doesnt comply with the interests of specific allies and domestic industries.

If todays hegemon wants to avoid the Athenian path and preserve its world leadership it might

serve to study the Athenian mistakes intensively and learn from history. There is too much at

stake to simply stay the course, which has been realized by an increasing number of US foreign

policy pundits that questions the viability of the Iraqi occupation. It might be exaggerated to

speak of the invasion of Iraq as the American Waterloo or Stalingrad but the potential for defeat

in the Middle East with significant consequences for the American imperial position is as present

today as it was in ancient Sicily.

Iran proves to be too resilient to surrender to the siege and finds itself protected by Russia,

China, India, and indirectly by the EU3, who seek a compromise solution outside the UN Secu-

rity Council. This way, todays Syracuse is going to survive and sell its oil and gas on the world

markets despite the US embargo. Iran increasingly looks like the big winner of the current US

policy in the Middle East, a result hardly intended. Installing democracies in the Middle East

might take too long and undesirable parties like radical Islamists or dependents of Tehran might

be elected to power. The rising domination of Iraq by the Arab Shiites will be celebrated by their

Persian brethren as an increase of Iranian influence.

10

Stefan Haid Why President Obama Should Read Thucydides

With American military forces overstretched and pinned down in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as

almost no further means to prevent Iran from finishing its nuclear counterwall and thus gain-

ing the decisive deterrent, the US needs to reconsider its Middle East strategy if it wants to pre-

serve its hegemony. Just like Nicias, who wrote a letter to Athens with a plain description of the

facts, America should realize the damage that its policies have already done to its role in the

world and change course.

Promoting a pro-Iranian pseudo-democracy in Iraq will probably help the American aims of se-

curing its energy supplies and Israels security even less than relying on undemocratic pro-US rul-

ers in the region. Ending todays siege of Syracuse by embracing Iran as a partner for regional

stability and sufficient oil supplies might prove to be the only viable alternative to the current

struggle in the Middle East. Without Iran there probably wont be a solution to the Arab-Israeli

conflict and the Lebanese question either as the Iranian-funded Hezbollah is able to destabilize

both.

As China is continuously gathering strength, the US needs to re-allocate its resources to face

more serious challenges. It seems that the unipolar moment of the United States is already fading

out only 18 years after the fall of the Berlin wall, with many regional powers incrementally gaining

ground towards self-assertion and rejection of American hegemony. Whether China will be able

to achieve bipolarity and form an equivalent of the Peloponnesian League remains to be seen, but

there is little doubt that it has global ambitions.

The US will have to evaluate how much of its leadership it can preserve in the world. A strategic

bombing raid on the Iranian nuclear sites or even a full-blown invasion would probably be as det-

rimental to the US position in the world as an attempt to provoke a military stand-off with China

over Taiwan. The decision to embark on todays equivalent of Athens Sicilian expedition has in-

creased the pressure on the new Obama administration to reassess its strategy. Athens was sur-

rounded by medium-sized powers like Corinth, Argos, Thebes, Macedonia, Thrace, as well as the

huge Persian Empire that were only waiting to fill any power vacuum created by imperial over-

stretch and benefit from the struggle for Syracuse, where the besiegers became the besieged.

Assuming that the admittedly constructed analogy holds, there are many lessons to be learned

from this comparative analysis. Ancient Greece would have been a more peaceful and prosperous

place and Athens would have enjoyed its preeminent position much longer if it had not alienated

its allies by abandoning moderate imperialist policies and embarking on a Sicilian expedition.

Embracing Sparta, Persia, and even Syracuse as partners to share leadership in the Greater Hel-

lenic world has not been an obvious choice for the Athenians of the past and the present. That is

why the study of Thucydides History of the Peloponnesian War might enlighten the new US-

President Obama to share the burden of world leadership with China, Russia, and the European

Allies as well to open a new dialogue and establish diplomatic relations with Iran.