politics in the age of trump · 2018-11-05 · | 2 “if you look at the map of the united states,...

| 1

POLITICS IN THE

AGE OF TRUMPDoug Sosnik November 6, 2018

| 2

“If you look at the map of the United States, there is all that red in the middle, places

where Trump won," she said. “What that map doesn't show you is that I won the places that own two thirds of America's Gross

Domestic Product".

-Hillary Clinton, March 10, 2018

| 3

Trump Carried 84% of the Counties in the United States in 2016

Source: Brilliant Maps, November 2016

| 4

The Last Time a Trump County Voted Republican in a Presidential Election

Source: The Washington Post, May 2018

| 5

Public Trust in Government Near Historic Lows

Source: Pew Research Center, December, 2017

| 6

Americans Have Lost Faith In Most Institutions In Our Country

Source: Gallup, June, 2018

| 7

Free Trade’s Impact on the United StatesWhich U.S. Regions have been most susceptible to competition from Chinese Imported

Source: MIT Technology Review, David Autor, August 23, 2016

| 8

Since 1980’s, Labor Productivity and Real GDP Have Risen, Private Employment and Median Household

Income Have Fallen

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1953 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009

19

53

=10

0

Labor Productivity

Private Employment

Median Household Income

Real GDP

2015

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2015

| 9Source: Congressional Budget Office via the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities

INCOME INEQUALITY HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY SINCE 1980

| 10

SOCIAL MOBILITY IS ON THE DECLINE

Source: Chetty et al, “The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility since 1940” via Brookings

| 11

Access to Education Depends on Family Income

Source: Chetty et al, “Where is the land of opportunity? The geography of intergenerational mobility in the US” via Brookings

| 12

Share of U.S. Population By Country of Birth 1850-2016

Source: University of Minnesota, August 30, 2018

| 13

Trump’s Job Approval Rating Improving But Still Under 50 Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18

49%-Disapprove

47%-Approve

Source: NBC-WSJ, October 21, 2018

| 14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Trump’s Job Approval Highest with Republicans, Whites, Men, Older and Less Educated Voters

Source: Washington Post/ABC Poll, October 11, 2018

| 15

Satisfaction With The Way Things Are Going In The U.S. Reaches Highest Since 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan-05 May-06 Sep-07 Jan-09 May-10 Sep-11 Jan-13 May-14 Sep-15 Jan-17 May-18

37%

Source: Gallup, September 17, 2018

Sep- 18

| 16

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18

Approval Disapproval

Trump’s Economy Job Approval Net Positive

Source: The Economist/YouGov, September 2018

50%-Approve

41%-Disapprove

Sept-18

| 17

FEDERAL RACES

| 18

The 2010 Midterm Wave Election — A Lost Decade for Democrats at the State and Local Level

Administration Job Approval Senate House Governors State Legislators

Clinton- 1994 46% -8 -52 -10 -554

Clinton- 1998 66% 0 +5 +1 +12

Bush- 2002 63% +2 +8 -1 +140

Bush-2006 38% -6 -30 -6 -334

Obama- 2010 45% -6 -63 -6 -729

Obama- 2014 40% -9 -13 -3 -312

| 19

Congressional Generic Ballot

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ap

r-9

7

Dec

-97

Au

g-9

8

Ap

r-9

9

Dec

-99

Au

g-0

0

Ap

r-0

1

Dec

-01

Au

g-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

Dec

-03

Au

g-0

4

Ap

r-0

5

Dec

-05

Au

g-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Dec

-07

Au

g-0

8

Ap

r-0

9

Dec

-09

Au

g-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Dec

-11

Au

g-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Dec

-13

Au

g-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Dec

-15

Au

g-1

6

Ap

r-1

7

Dec

-17

Au

g-1

8

Democrat-Controlled Congress Republican-Controlled Congress

41%

Oct

-18

48%

Source: WSJ/NBC October 17, 2018

| 20

Fundraising for Congress, By Party

Source: Axios, October 18, 2018

| 21

Spike in Democratic Congressional Candidates –Largest spike by either party since 2010 GOP Wave

Source: FEC. Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios, September 19, 2018

| 22Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University

History of Women Running for House and Senate

| 23

Republican 2016 Presidential Election Results

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen,

FLD+20

Dave Reichert, WA D+3

Ed Royce, CA* D+9

Frank LoBiondo, NJ R+5

Darrell Issa, CA D+7

Charlie Dent, PA R+8

Dave Trott, MI R+4

Steve Pearce, NM R+11

Ron DeSantis, FL R+17

Pat Tiberi, OH* R+11

Jim Renacci, OH R+17

Joe Barton, TX R+12

Lynn Jenkins, KS R+18

Lamar Smith, TX* R+10


Bob Goodlatte, VA* R+25

Blake Farenthold, TX R+24

Gregg Harper, MS* R+24

Kristi Noem, SD R+30

Jeb Hensarling, TX* R+28

Todd Rokita, IN R+34

Jim Bridenstine, OK R+17

Luke Messer, IN R+40

Bill Shuster, PA R+42

John Duncan, TN R+35

Marsha Blackburn, TN R+20

Raul Labrador, ID R+38

Evan Jenkins, WV R+49

Diane Black, TN R+49


Pat Meehan, PA D+2.3

Sam Johnson, TX R+14

Ted Poe, TX R+9

Lou Barletta, PA R+24

Rodney Frelinghuysen,

NJ*R+1

Thad Cochran, MS R+17.83

Jason Chaffetz, UT* R+25

Tim Murphy, PA D+13

Trent Franks, AZ R+21.2

Martha McSally, AZ D+4.9

Kevin Cramer, ND R+36.4

Orrin Hatch, UT R+17.9

Jeff Flake, AZ R+3.57

Bob Corker, TN R+26.15

House & Senate Republican Retirements

Source: Cook Political Report, September 2018 Note: Asterisks denote committee chairs

| 24

Share of Two-Party Vote in U.S. House Primaries

Source: Axios, September 19, 2018

| 25

2018 SENATE RACES9 Republicans, 24 Democrats, are up for re-election

NJ

CT

MD

MA

RI

VT

DE

GA (OPEN)

WA

OR

CA

AK

NV

ID

UT

AZ

CO

ND

SD

KS

OK

IA

MO

AR

LA

ALGA

SC

FL

HI

NC

KY

IL

WI

INOH

PA

NY

MT

WY

NM

TX

MN

MI

TN

MS

ME

VAWVNE

DEM seats won by Trump (10)

Democrat (26)

Republican (9)

2

Open Seats (3)

2

Source: Real Clear Politics, September 2018

| 26

Since 1988 Voters Have Increasingly Voted A Straight Ticket For President And U.S. Senate

Source: Pew Research Center, June 2018

| 27

GA (OPEN)

WA

OR

CA

AK

NV

ID

UT

AZ

ND

SD

IA

MO

LA

AL GA

SC

FL

HI

NC

KY

IL

WI

INOH

PA

NY

MT

TX

MN

MI

TN

MS

ME

VAWVNE

STATES WON BY PRESIDENT TRUMP WITH A DEMOCRATIC SENATOR UP IN 2018STATES WON BY PRESIDENT TRUMP WITH A

DEMOCRATIC SENATOR UP IN 2018

OK

KSCO

WY

ARNM

Trump Margin 6-10%

Trump Margin 0-5%

Trump Margin >15%

Toss-Up Senate Seats (3)

Source: Real Clear Politics, September 2018

| 28

Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R

CA – Feinstein

CT – Murphy

DE – Carper

HI – Hirono

MA – Warren

MD – Cardin

ME - King(I)

MN – Klobuchar

NM – Heinrich

NY – Gillibrand

RI – Whitehouse

VA – Kaine

VT - Sanders

WA- Cantwell

MI - Stabenow

OH – Brown

PA – Casey

WI – Baldwin

MN – Smith

WV – Manchin

FL – Nelson

IN – Donnelly

MO – McCaskill

MT – Tester

NJ – Menéndez

AZ – Open

NV – Heller

TN – Open

TX-Cruz

ND – Heitkamp

MS- Hyde-Smith

MS – Wicker

NE – Fischer

UT – Open

WY – Barrasso

2018 SENATE RACES9 Republicans and 26 Democrats are up for re-election

Source: Cook Political Report, October 26, 2018

| 29

Split Ticket Voting For President And The U.S. House Has Declined Significantly In The Past 25 Years

0

50

100

150

200

250

72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00 4 8 12 16

Democrats Pres. Candidate and a House Republican Republican Pres. Candidate and a House Democrat

Source: Pew Research Center, August 8, 2016

| 30

2018 House Race RatingsDemocrats need to Pick up a net of 23 seats to Take Back the House

Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R

O’Halleran (AZ)*

Bera (CA)

Costa (CA-16)

Murphy (FL)

Peterson (MN)*

Open- NH 1*

Open- NJ 2

Gottheimer (NJ)*

Vacant - PA 5

Open- PA 6

Cartwright (PA)*

Rothfus (PA)

Open- AZ 2*

Open-CA 49*

Coffman (CO)*

Open-FL 27*

Blum (IA)

Roskam (IL)*

Yoder (KS)*

Open- MI 11

Lewis (MN)

Paulsen (MN)*

Open- NJ 11

Open- NV 3*

Open- NV 4

Vacant - PA 7

Comstock (VA)*

Dem

Open-MN 1*

Rep.

Denham (CA)*

Knight (CA)*

Open-CA 39*

Walters (CA)*

Rohrabacher (CA)*

Open- FL 15

Curbelo (FL)*

Young (IA)

Hultgren (IL)

Open- KS 2

Barr (KY)

Poliquin (ME)

Bishop (MI)

Open- NC 9

Budd (NC)

MacArthur (NJ)

Lance (NJ)*

Open- NM 2

Faso (NY)

Tenney (NY)

Balderson (OH)

Fitzpatrick (PA)

Culberson (TX)*

Sessions (TX)*

Love (UT)

Taylor (VA)

Brat (VA)

Open- WA 8*

Young (AK)

Hunter (CA)

Open- FL 6

Buchanan (FL)

Mast (FL)

Handel (GA)

Woodall (GA)

King (IA)

Bost (IL)

Davis (IL)

Open- MN 8*

Wagner (MO)

Gianforte (MT)

Holding (NC)

Bacon (NE)

Donovan (NY)

Katko (NY)*

Collins (NY)

Chabot (OH)

Perry (PA)

Kelly (PA)

Open – SC 1

Olson (TX)

Hurd (TX)*

Open- VA 5

Herrera Beutler (WA)

McMorris Rodgers-WA 5

Open- WI 1

Open- WV 3

Hill (AR)

Schweikert (AZ)

Lesko (AZ)

LaMalfa (CA)

McClintock (CA)

Valadao (CA)*

Nunes (CA)

Tipton (CO)

Diaz-Balart (FL)

Walorski (IN)

Bergman (MI)

Amash (MI)

Upton (MI)

Walberg (MI)

Hudson (NC)

Zeldin (NY)

King (NY)

Stefanik (NY)

Reed (NY)

Turner (OH)

Joyce (OH)

Russell (OK)

Open- PA 14

Open- TX 2

Open- TX 21

Marchant (TX)

Carter (TX)

Grothman (WI)


*-Dem House Districts won by Trump

*-Rep House Districts won by Clinton

| 31

STATE AND LOCAL

RACES

| 32

NJ

CT

MD

MA

RI

VT

NH

GA (OPEN)

WA

OR

CA

AK

NV

ID

UT

AZ

CO

ND

SD

KS

OK

IA

MO

AR

LA

ALGA

SC

FL

HI

NC

KY

IL

WI

INOH

PA

NY

MT

WY

NM

TX

MN

MI

TN

MS

ME

VAWVNE

Open Seat (4 Dem, 13 Rep)

2017 Election (VA, NJ)

Democrat (9)

Republican (26)

Independent (1)

2018 GUBERNATORIAL RACES26 Republicans, 9 Democrats, & 1 Independent are up for re-election

| 33

Republicans (26) Independents (1) Democrats (9)

Republican

Incumbent (14)

Republican

Open Seat (13)Independent Incumbent (1)

Democrat

Open Seat (4)

Democrat

Incumbent (5)

Alabama

Arizona

Arkansas

Illinois*

Iowa

Maryland*

Massachusetts*

Nebraska

New Hampshire*

South Carolina

Texas

Vermont*

Wisconsin

Florida

Georgia

Idaho

Kansas

Maine*

Michigan

Nevada*

New Mexico*

Ohio

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Wyoming

Alaska California

Colorado

Minnesota

Connecticut

Hawaii

New York

Oregon

Rhode Island

Pennsylvania**

2018 GUBERNATORIAL RACES36 races, 17 are open seats

Republicans defending 8 seats carried by Clinton in 2016, Democrats defending 1 seat carried by Trump

* Clinton States (8) | ** Trump State (1)

Source: Cook Political Report, September 14, 2018

| 34

2018 Governor Race Ratings

Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R

Open- CA

Ige (HI)

Cuomo (NY)

Open- MN

Wolf (PA)

Rauner (IL)

Open- CO

Ralmondo (RI)

Open- NM

Open- MI

Dems:

Open- CT

Brown (OR)

Reps:

Open- FL

Open- GA

Reynolds (IA)

Open-KS

Open- ME

Open- NV

Open- OH

Open- OK

Open- SD

Walker (WI)

Walker (AK)

Sununu (NH)

Ducey (AZ)

Hogan (MD)

McMaster (SC)

Open- TN

Ivey (AL)

Hutchinson (AR)

Open- ID

Baker (MA)

Ricketts (NE)

Abbott (TX)

Open- WY

Scott (VT)


| 35

2018 Trifecta States: One Party Controls the Governors Mansion and the State Legislature

10

22

2423

26

17

1112

78

23

17

14

20

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Pre-2010 Pre-2012 Pre-2014 Pre-2016 Pre-2018

Control of the States

Republican Democrat Divided

Source: Ballotpedia

| 36

2018 Trifecta States

Source: Ballotpedia 2/7/2017

GA (OPEN)

WA

OR

CA

AK

NV

ID

UT

AZ

CO

ND

SD

KS

OK

IA

MO

AR

LA

ALGA

SC

FL

HI

NC

KY

IL

WI

INOH

PA

NY

MT

WY

NM

TX

MN

MI

TN

MS

ME

VAWVNE

GOP (26)

DEM (8)

SPLIT (17)

| 37

APPENDIX A

| 38

Chinese Tariffs Hit Trump Counties Harder

Source: The Wall Street Journal, July 6, 2018

| 39

Opioid Overdose Death Rates in the U.S.Death Rate per 100,000 Population in 2015

Source: CDC, 2015

| 40

Suicide Rates are Up 30% Since 1999

Source: NBC, June 9, 2018

| 41

Obesity Percentage Among U.S. Adults by State in 2016

Source: CDC, 2016

politics in the age of trump · 2018-11-05 · | 2 “if you look at the map of the united states,...

Documents