politics disadvantage - immigration - samford 2013

8/12/2019 Politics Disadvantage - Immigration - Samford 2013

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Immigration Reform PoliticsAFF Answers 1

Samford Debate Institute 2013 Opening Packet

Immigration Reform PoliticsAFF Answers2ac Front-Line ............................................................................................................................. 2

1ar Wont Pass......................................................................................................................... 5

1ar: Obama Has No Political Capital ..................................................................................... 91ar: Winners Win .................................................................................................................. 10


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2ac Front-Line

Immigration reform wont pass nowthree reasons:

Sean Sullivan, 6/21/2013(staff writer, Three signs of trouble for immigration reformin the House, Retrieved 6/22/2013 from http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/06/21/three-signs-of-trouble-for-immigration-reform-in-the-house/)

But over in the House is a different picture. There are some emerging signs of trouble on the other side of the

Capitol for comprehensive reform advocates. Here are the three biggest ones:1. An unruly GOP

Conference: The Houses failure to pass a farm bill Thursday was a stark reminder that the lower

chambers Republican Conference just cant be led right now . Most Democrats voted against the bill, but they werejoined by enough conservatives who opposed it from the right to sink the measure. From the Plan B debacle in last years debate over tax rates

to a recent effort to ban abortions after 20 weeks, the conservative wing of the House has made its voice heard on multiple occasions. So if theSenate passes an immigration bill by a wide margin, it remains to be seen whether that impresses anyone on the conservative side of the GOP

Conference enough to shift their views. Given the track record of House Republicans, it could be a hard sell even if the Senate bill gets 70+

votes.2. Boheners Hastert Rule remark: House Speaker John Boehner(R-Ohio) vowed this week not to

bring an immigration bill to the floor that did not have the support of a majority of HouseRepublicans. Setting such a condition in advance only narrows the path to passage. Boehner didnt rule outrelying on Democrats to pass a final version of immigration legislation that could be negotiated between the House and the Senate. But the lastthing he needs right now for his own political future is to stoke more anger within his conference. Boehner will face pressure from Senate

Republicans, donors, and other GOP players to get immigration reform done. But hes making clear early that despite all that,hes not going to

walk away from his conference to get a deal done. And that hard line will make it more difficult for reform to happen, given the opposition on the

right to pillars of the Senate bill.3. The GOP primary threat: This isnt new this week but it bears repeating,

because, as the gun debate showed, it doesnt matter what public opinion says or what other

external factors exist, members of Congress will ultimately prioritize the outlook of their

constituents over whichever way the national conversation is leaning. If they dont, they up the chances of losingtheir jobs. Redistricting has contributed to a situation in which many House Republicans represent safe GOP districts in which the threat of a

primary is worth more worry than being defeated in the general election. A vote for immigration reform could become an

easy way for potential challengers to get to the right of incumbents in some Republican districts.

And rest assured, GOP members will not lose sight of that.

(--) Obama has no capital for immigration reform:

Fred Barnes, 4/22/2013(staff writer, The Decline of Obama,http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/decline-obama_716280.html?page=1,Accessed4/25/2013, rwg)

But theres something else involved as well. Under Obama, the presidency has been in decline . His use of the budget as aploy against Republicans is an example of this. The biggest domestic issue is the looming fiscal crisis, but Obama has addressed it only

rhetorically. Instead hes used the budget largely as a political tool that cheapened the presidency.Other presidents have done this, but far less

crassly or brazenly. At least they presented their budgets on time, as required by law. Obama was two months late. He erased one ofWashingtons oldest adages: The president proposes, Congress disposes. By last week, both the Senate and House had already passed budget

resolutions.Obamas tardiness touches on another aspect of presidential decline: the loss of influence. By long tradition, any release of the

budget produced by the White House was a major event. True, the impact of the presidents budget has waned in recent years. Obama has made it

an afterthought.On Capitol Hill today, Obama has scarcely any clout at all .One reason: He acts as if spending time

with members of Congress, even Democrats, is an unpleasant chore. Another reason: Having deferred to Democrats in his first term, he finds it

difficult to pull rank on them in his second. And having ignored or alienated Republicans, he isnt likely to achieve much by courting them over

dinner in recent weeks.Immigration and gun control are the dominant issues in Congress at the moment,

and Obama is a major player on neither of them. The gang of eightfour Democrats, four Republicansis

the driving force on immigration in the Senate. Obama is no force at all.
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(--) Obama has no PC now and winners win:

Amie Parnes, 3/20/2013(staff writer, Obama honeymoon may be over,http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/289179-obama-honeymoon-may-be-over,Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)

The second-term honeymoon forPresident Obamais beginning to look like it is over.Obama,who was riding high after his

reelection win in November, has seen his poll numbers take a precipitous fall in recent weeks.A CNN poll released Tuesday showed

Obamas favorability rating underwater, with 47 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving of Obamas handling o f his job.Much of the

presidents agenda is stuck, with climate change regulations delayed, immigration reform mired in committee negotiations and prospects for a grand

bargain budget deal in limbo at best.On Tuesday, in a decision that underscored Obamas depleting political capital ,

the White House watched asSenate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) announced only a watered-down version

of Obamas gun control proposalswould be considered on the Senate floor. Republicans, sensing the sea change, are licking their chops. Theypoint to the lack of movement on Obamas signature issues, noting the contrast to the ambitious plans outlined in the early weeks of his second term.The president

set very high goals for himself dur ing his State of the Union, but the reality is very little of his agenda is actually moving, Republican strategist Ron Bonjean said.

He allowed himself to get caught up in the legislative quicksand, [and] the cement is beginning to harden. History isnt on Obamas side. The last four presidents

who won a second term all saw their poll numbers slide by mid -March with the exception of Bill Clinton, whose numbers improved in the four months following his

reelection.Clinton may have only been delaying the inevitable. His numbers dropped 5 points in April 1994. Even Ronald Reagan, buoyed by a dominant

performance over Walter Mondale in the 1984 election, saw a double-digit erosion by this point in his second term.Obama has yet to complete the first 100 days of

his second term. But without a signature achievement since his reelection, he faces a crossroads that could

define the remainder of his presidency.White House aides maintain that the 24-hour news cycle makes comparisons to previous presidentsdifficult.I think the nature of our polit ics now is different than Ronald Reagans honeymoon, one senior administration official said. The ebb and flow of politicsdoesnt follow that model anymore.But observers say a drop in popularity is typical for second-termers.There may be some typical second-term honeymoon fade

happening, said Martin Sweet, an assistant visiting professor of political science at Northwestern University. Honeymoon periods for incumbents are a bit more

ephemeral.But like most other presidents, Sweet added, Obamas fate is t ied to the economy.Continuing economic progress would ultimately strengthen the

president but if we are hit with a double-dip recession, then Obamas numbers will cra ter, he said.The White House disputes any notion that Obama has lost any

political capital in recent weeks.The president set out an ambitious agenda and hes doing big things that are not easy, from immigration to gun control, the senior

administration official said. Those are policies you cant rack up easily, and no one here is naive about that.The White House is aware that the clock is ticking to

push its hefty agenda, but the official added, The clock is not ticking because of presidents political capital. The clock is t icking because theres a timetable in

achieving all of this. [Lawmakers] are not going to sign on because the presidents popular.And administration officials believe they still have the leverage.

Theres a decent amount of momentum behind all of this, the official said . It looks like immigration is closer [to passage] than ever before.Republican strategist

Ken Lundberg argued that current budget fights have cut short the presidents second-term honeymoon.He said this could also hurt the presidents party, warni ng

the lower the presidents approval rating, the bigger the consequence for vulnerable Democrats.Voters want solutions, and if they see the president headed down

the wrong path, lockstep lawmakers will be punished in 2014, he said.Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis maintained that as long as hes president, Obama still has

the leverage.Immigration reform doesnt get impacted by whether Obamas poll numbers are 55 or 45, Kofinis said. Does it make certain t hings a little more

difficult? Possibly. But while his numbers may have fallen, hes still more likeable than the Republicans are on their best day.Kofinis said the real question for

Obama is what kind of emphasis hes going to place on his second term because the public wil l have less pat ience than they did during his first.The challenge in a

second term is the American people look at certain things and have a higher tolerance in a second term, he said. When they know youre not running for reelection

again, they hold you to a higher standard.Bonjean and otherRepublicans are aware that Obama could potentially

bounce back from his latest slip in the polls and regain his footing.He has the opportunity to take minor legislative

victories and blow them up into major accomplishments meaningif he got something on gun control, he can tout

that that was part of his agenda and the work isnt over.If he were able to strike a grand bargain with Republicans, thatd be alegacy issue.

House will block immigration reform:

Andrew Johnson, 4/23/2013(staff writer, Paul to Ingraham: Immigration ReformMust Pass GOP-Controlled House Too,http://www.nationalreview.com/346451/paul-

ingraham-immigration-reform-must-pass-gop-controlled-house,Accessed 4/24/2013,rwg)

Senator Rand Paul joined Laura Ingraham on her radio show today to tell the group of senators working on immigration

reform to make sure it appeals to House Republicans, particularly in regards to a pathway tocitizenship.This isnt passing unless it gets through a conservative House. Unless they ram it

through with all Democrats in the House and a few Republicans, its not going to pass , Paul said. I think

thats an important part of this that the Gang of Eight is going to have to figure out.Ive told them this repeatedly in private

and in public, If you have a new pathway, youre making it hard for any conservatives to get on

board with this, he added.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/289179-obama-honeymoon-may-be-overhttp://www.nationalreview.com/346451/paul-ingraham-immigration-reform-must-pass-gop-controlled-househttp://www.nationalreview.com/346451/paul-ingraham-immigration-reform-must-pass-gop-controlled-househttp://www.nationalreview.com/346451/paul-ingraham-immigration-reform-must-pass-gop-controlled-househttp://www.nationalreview.com/346451/paul-ingraham-immigration-reform-must-pass-gop-controlled-househttp://www.nationalreview.com/346451/paul-ingraham-immigration-reform-must-pass-gop-controlled-househttp://thehill.com/homenews/administration/289179-obama-honeymoon-may-be-over


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Piecemeal reform solves:

Prerna Lal, 2/22/2013(Law Clerk at Benach Ragland LLP, How the GOP Can Win onImmigration Reform,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/prerna-lal/how-the-gop-can-win-on-immigration_b_2670348.html,Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)

As such, immigration legislation is likely to move only when the House leadership realizes it is in their best interest to lead on the issue. House

Speaker Rep. John Boehner andMajority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor are hinting at piecemeal reform as a viablesolution that would break up the mammoth comprehensive immigration bill into more manageable

pieces. Such a move would bring up popular immigration billslike the DREAM Act and STEM for a vote, giving

certain groups more victories, and momentum.Data suggest that this would also translate into providing the GOP with the bit of traction

that they need to win back the House for years to come. And given that "comprehensive" is now the Democrat party-

line, a strong piecemeal approach by the Republicans would leave the Democrats hapless in the

Senate with the empty and meaningless rhetoric of "comprehensive immigration reform"whileshowing the public that the Republicans are not only willing to compromise on the issue, but willing to lead the way.
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1ar Wont Pass

(--) Extend our Sullivan evidence it says the GOP in the House wont come around to

voting for immigration reformprefer our evidence it is predictive and not just a

snapshot.

(--) Republicans wont support immigration at the end of the day:

Michael Tomasky, 4/24/2013(staff writer, Republicans: An Immovable Wall ofNays,http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/24/republicans-an-immovable-

wall-of-nays.html,Accessed 4/25/2013, rwg)

This brings me back to immigration. The Tsarnaevs may not have derailed things, but other cracks

are starting to show. Last Thursdaybefore we knew who the Boston bombers wereRush Limbaugh speculated that immigration

reform would constitute Republican suicide. A Politico article yesterday made the same pointan analysis

showed that if 11 million undocumented residents had been able to vote in 2012, Obama might

have won Arizona and would even have made a race of it in Texas. This did not go unremarked in

right-wing circlesyesterday. The Big Bloviator himself weighed in: Senator Schumer can taste this. Hes so excited. All the Democrats.Why would we agree to something that they are so eager to have?Immigration is the one area today on which a small number of Republicans

are actually trying. Limbaughs position last week is a change from a couple of months ago, whenMarco Rubio had him admitting that maybe the

GOP needed to embrace reform. Its not hard to imagine him and Laura Ingraham and others turning surlier as the hour of truthon the bill

approaches.I will be impressed and more than a little surprised if the day comes and a majority of

Republicans back an immigration bill. Passing such a bill is undoubtedly in their self-interest, as

everyone has observed. What fewer have observed is that doing so is just not in their DNA. And life

teaches us that genes usually get the better of reason.

(--) Wont get a vote in the House

JOHN BRESNAHAN andJAKE SHERMAN, 4/14/13(staff writers, MitchMcConnell in no mood for bipartisanship,

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships-90043.html?hp=t1,Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)

From the outside, this spring has shaped up to be a season of bipartisanship on Capitol Hill. Gangs of senators have hashed out agreements on

guns and immigration. President Barack Obama has had two dinners with Senate Republicans and traveled to the Hill to meet with lawmakers

from both chambers. But the good feelings have really been only in the Senate, and only among a minority of Republicans to boot. Toxic

relationships between party leaders and partisan realities remain as strong as ever. Senate Minority LeaderMitch McConnell (R-Ky.), for instance, still hasnt gotten over feeling burned by Decembers traumatic fiscal cliff showdown. He has signaled

privately that he has no interest in even sitting in the same room as Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to discuss a possible grand bargain on

budget and tax issues, Senate insiders tell POLITICO. McConnell is fine with talking to Obamajust talking at this pointbut he doesnt

want Reid there when it happens. And while the leaders dont get along, relationships among the other 98

senators will be tested when voting begins on the controversial gun and immigration measuresstarting with this weeks expected vote on expanding background checks for firearms purchases. McConnell plans to pull out all the stops to

block the bill, and GOP senators are blasting any immigration plan that they say smells of amnesty.

Thats just the Senate. House Republicans, their own seats made even safer by redistricting, are in no hurry bring

up immigration, gun control or revenue issues or cave into the Obama administration or Democrats. In May,House Republicans will hold what they are dubbing a special conference to plan for the summers policy fights with Democrats, similar to their

January meeting in Williamsburg, Va., where they successfully recalibrated early year budget fights, according to GOP leadership aides. I dontsee this as a wave and theres something in the water that has us changed, said Rep. James Lankford of Oklahoma, chairman ofthe House

Republican Policy Committee. Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland seemed to agree. On the House side,

unfortunately you got a very knee-jerk ideologically rigid caucus for the most part,said Van Hollen, thetop Democrat on the Budget Committee. 9
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/24/republicans-an-immovable-wall-of-nays.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/24/republicans-an-immovable-wall-of-nays.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/24/republicans-an-immovable-wall-of-nays.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships-90043.html?hp=t1http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships-90043.html?hp=t1http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships-90043.html?hp=t1http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships-90043.html?hp=t1http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/24/republicans-an-immovable-wall-of-nays.htmlhttp://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/04/24/republicans-an-immovable-wall-of-nays.html


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(--) Wont pass: opposition from both Democrats and Republicans:

Katie DeLong, 4/7/2013(staff writer, Senate to debate bi-partisan immigration reformproposal Wednesday,http://fox6now.com/2013/04/07/congress-returns-from-break-monday-immigration-reform-tops-agenda/,Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)

Senate resistanceThe Gang of Eight may be ideologically diverse, but that doesnt mean there wont be

significant resistance to the plan once its released especially among wary conservatives. GOP basevoters remain vehemently opposed to any plan which could be construed as amnesty for those who entered the country illegally.Liberal

Democrats, meanwhile, remain concerned that conservatives will never agree the countrys

southern border is secure, and will try to use that issue to continually deny citizenship to

undocumented residents.In the Senate, Alabama Republican Jeff Sessions and others have repeatedly expressed the fear thatDemocratic leaders will try to ram the Gang of Eights plan through before other members have a chance to properly consider the bill.

(--) Non-Unique: conservatives wont compromise on immigration reform:

Associated Press, 4/14/2013(RNC splits on deals as Congress weighscompromises,www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/14/rnc-splits-on-deals-as-congress-weighs-

compromises/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+

foxnews%2Fpolitics+(Internal+-+Politics+-+Text,Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)--A bipartisan Senate group agreed, despite outcry from some conservative Republicans, on an

immigration proposalto allow those who arrived in the U.S. illegally before 2012 to apply for legal status and ultimately citizenship,provided they meet other criteria.--A separate group of Senate Republicans and Democrats voted to allow debate on a measure that wouldsubject more gun buyers to background checks, beating back an effort by conservative Republicans and the National Rifle Association to thwart

the legislation.--Obama released a budget proposal that includes provisions to slow the growth of spending for Social Security and Medicare,

cuts Republicans have long advocated, in return for raising taxes on upper incomes, extending an olive branch of sorts to the GOP.All that

had some GOP activists at the gathering fretting that such deal-making is exacerbating a credibility

problemwithin the party's rank and file. These Republicans worry that the party already has ceded too much

to Obama. They cited Republicans voting in Obama's first term to authorize increasing the nation's debt ceiling, and the "fiscal cliff" debatein which a minority of House Republicans agreed to Obama's demand for income tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans."People saw us as the

compromise party that kept on buckling," Iowa Republican Party Chairman A.J. Spiker said. "It sends the message that people cannot trust us on

our principles."The RNC chairman is among those showing little willingness to budge."When it comes

to compromise, I think our party has done its fair share, and it doesn't seem like we get a whole lotin return," Priebus told The Associated Press this week. "The president has proven to be a person that generally does things for political

purposes and gain ... in order to make the greater point that somehow the Republicans aren't coming on board."

(--) Partisanship is high now:


http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships-

90043.html?hp=t1,Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)

Such is life in Congress, where hope of bipartisanship is giving way to the same old toxic relations .From the

outside, the Senate appeared to have the bipartisan thing down this spring: so called gangs of senators have hashed out agreements on guns and

immigration. President Barack Obama has had two dinners with Senate Republicans and traveled up to the Hill to meet with lawmakers from

both chambers.But the good feelings have really been only in the Senate, and only among a minority ofRepublicans to boot. Bad blood remains between party leaders and the national partisan realities

haventchanged.

(--) Conservatives bashing immigration reform now:

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http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/bipartisanship-tempered-by-toxic-relationships-

90043.html?hp=t1,Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)On the immigration front, while the bipartisan Gang of Eight that includes Durbin and Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.),

have the outline of a deal that could reach the Senate floor this summer, the knives are already out from the right as

amnesty for illegal immigrants.Sen. Jeff Sessions(R-Ala.) blasted the proposal on Fox News

Sunday, andSen. Ted Cruzof Texas, a GOP rising star, has also criticized the plan.

(--) Immigration reform wont make it to Obamas desk:

The Hill, 3/9/2013(Crucial stretch for Obama,http://thehill.com/opinion/editorials/289159-crucial-stretch-for-obama,Accessed

4/24/2013, rwg)President Obama has a big second-term agenda, but he faces a make-or-break stretch during thenext couple of months on two big issues. He has made gun control and immigration reform top

priorities, but neither is close to getting to his desk.

(--) Wont pass: friction between unions and the Chamber of Commerce:

The Hill, 3/9/2013(Crucial stretch for Obama,

http://thehill.com/opinion/editorials/289159-crucial-stretch-for-obama,Accessed4/24/2013, rwg)

The immigration Gang of Eight this week vowed to release bill language next month. By all accounts,

those promises are expected to be kept. But there has been friction on the issue between important stakeholders,

the AFL-CIO and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. If those differences are not resolved, the bill

will teeter.

(--) Wont pass: 4 reasons--

Alex Altman, 3/20/2013(staff writer, Four Hurdles That Could Block ImmigrationReform,http://swampland.time.com/2013/03/20/four-hurdles-that-could-block-immigration-reform/,Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)

The next few months offer the best chance in a generation for the two parties to solve a problem that has bedeviled Congress like few others.

Both sides agree the U.S. immigration system is broken. Both would seem to gain from a deal that clears a pathway out

of legal oblivion for the nations 11 million illegal immigrants. Support is building for a landmark pact. But while negotiations are

progressing in both the House and Senate, an agreement is a long way off. As the talks grow more

detailed, obstacles to a deal may begin to emerge:Problem #1: The Gang of EightThe first snag lurks inthe Senate, where the so-called Gang of Eight has huddled privately since the election in hopes of hammering out a bill. Members have crafted a

set of measures that would create a pathway to citizenship for the nations estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants with in about 13 years

while requiring them to register with federal authorities, pay back taxes and fines, learn English and undergo background checks. The deal, both

sides agree, would also beef up border security and determine how the future flow of immigrants will be regulated to match the needs of the

economy.(MORE: Rand Paul Embraces Immigration Reform)The Gangs closed conclaves have been marked by Vatican-style secrecy, often

a sign of progress in a town where silence is rare. The Gangs members Republicans Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, John McCain and JeffFlake, and Democrats Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin, Bob Menendez and Michael Bennethave, by all accounts, developed a rapport. You can

tell by the tone of their voices, says an elected Democrat briefed on the progress of the private talks.But the broad themes are the easy part.

The full bill will stretch to hundreds of pages, each peppered with detailed provisions that could

spike it. Members bring clashing political imperatives and ideologies to the talks. Rubio, for example, is

trying to repair the GOPs tattered image with Hispanic voters without sparking a backlash among the movement conservatives hed need in apresidential bid. Graham, who faces a probable primary challenge in 2014, has a habit of basking in the bipartisan spotlight before bolting when

negotiations intensify. The measure of the Gang of Eights success isnt whether they are aligned at the start of their talks. Its whether theyare

all aligned at the end.Problem #2: The LobbyistsA few years ago, an impasse between the leaders of the

Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO helped scupper an immigration-reform bill backed by

President George W. Bush.At that time, business and labor could not agree on how many visas to grant low skilled workers who make theconstruction, agriculture and hotel and restaurant industries hum. The Chamber wanted cheap labor, but didnt want workers to stay; unions were

concerned about protecting citizens jobs. Soon after, reform collapsed.This time the two groups have nurtured an unlikely alliance.There has been a sea change, says a labor source close to the discussions. Nudged by Graham and Schumer, the two lobbies released a set ofshared principles, including one stating that Americans should get first crack at available jobs and that businesses should have the flexibility to
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hire to meet the demands of the market. But history could repeat itself again. The two sides call for a new federal agency charged with settingvisa levels, but they have yet to agree on whos eligible or how the new bureau will work. The issue of future flow has been a stubborn sticking

point before. And it is as easy to imagine conservatives balking at efforts to create a new government agency as it is to foresee unions drawing a

line at a small number of foreign workers.(MORE: Committee to Save the GOP Says Pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform, Become

Inclusive to Gays or Keep Losing)Problem #3: House RepublicansEven if Senate negotiators can come up

with a package to get 60 votes in the upper chamber, the question continues to be, how does it get

through the House?says Frank Sharry, an expert on immigration reform. As in the Senate, a bipartisan cluster of eight representativesfrom across the ideological spectrum have been secretly meeting for months. Congressman Luis Gutierrez, an Illinois Democrat who has long

been a leader on immigration reform, is full of praise for the new tack taken by his Republican counterparts. But, he acknowledges, You still

have to put those votes on the board, and thats going to be a real, real test in the HouseofRepresentatives.For their part, Republicans say the partys old dogma, which held that illegal immigrants should self-deport and then go to the

back of the line, is not viable policy. Even many immigration hard-liners say they want to help shape comprehensive reform. Its time for us tobelly up to the bar, says Ted Poe, the Texas Republican who chairs the House immigration reform caucus. But for conservatives, amnesty

remains a dirty word. A bill thats basically amnesty, that says youre hereand youre going to be a citizen those two things are not going to

come out of this conservative House, says Poe. Even citizenship is charged enough that Republican Senator Rand Paul, who gave a speechMarch 19 backing a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants, avoided using the term. Many House Republicans, including several in

the Judiciary Committee through which a bill must pass, have a long history of antipathy to amnesty, and only a grassroots rebellion to fear as

next years primaries approach.Then there is the reality that even if Republicans were to be widely supportive of amnesty, very few of thosenew citizens are likely to abandon the Democratic Party anytime soon. Republicans face a choice: do they ditch their princip les and go all out in

a failing attempt to outpander Democrats? asks Rosemary Jenks, director of government relations at NumbersUSA, which advocates for lower

immigration levels. Its becoming very clear to Republicans in Congress that this is not going to get them the Hispanic vote.(MORE: The

Plight of the Illegal Nanny)Problem #4: The DemocratsLittle discussed but also looming is the possibility

that Democrats drag their feet on reform. Liberals will balk if the path to citizenship is too long ortoo onerous, or if enforcement provisions are too rigid. Many conservatives also suspect that Democratic power brokers, despite

their daily hammering of Republicans to get moving on immigration reform, would privately prefer to keep the issue as a

cudgel than actually pass a law. Barack Obama wants to make a bill come out of the Senate that is so far out there that it wouldnever pass, so that he can blame us for not being compassionate and use the issue to take back the House in 2014, says a House Republican.

Even some liberals see this as a plausible scenario. Theres always a lingering doubt in my mind, admits one House Democrat. Obama knows

that putting his fingerprints on the deal is an easy way to kill it; when a draft of his proposal leaked in the press, he called Republican negotiatorsindividually to apologize. But if negotiations in Congress bog down, he may not be so hands off.


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1ar: Obama Has No Political Capital

(--) Extend our Barnes evidenceObama is out of political capitalObama isnt a

major player on either guns or immigrationthis also takes out their internal link as

Obama isnt pushing immigration.

(--) Obama cant effectively use the bully pulpit:

Fred Barnes, 4/22/2013(staff writer, The Decline of Obama,http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/decline-obama_716280.html?page=1,Accessed

4/25/2013, rwg)The bully pulpit has served Obama poorly, as it has every president since Reagan. Obama,

however, was expected to be more eloquentthan his predecessors, thus able to generate enthusiasm for his initiatives. If

anything, hes generating indifference. His speeches on health care failed to stop Obamacare from losing

popularity. His speeches on gun control failed similarly.
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1ar: Winners Win

(--) Extend our Parmes evidenceObama has no political capital now and needs to

exploit small wins in order to bounce backprefer our evidence its specific to Obama

and his need to get back in the game now.

(--) Winners win: Picking fights with Republicans is only way for Obama to get his

agenda passed:

John Dickerson, 1/18/2013(staff writer, Go for the Throat!http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2013/01/barack_obama_s_second_inaugural_address_the_president_should_declare_war.single.html,Accessed

4/24/2013, rwg)The challenge for President Obamas speech is the challenge of his second term: how to be great when the environment stinks. Enhancing the

presidents legacy requires something more than simply the clever application of predictable stratagems. Washingtons partisan rancor, the size of

the problems facing government, and the limited amount of time before Obama is a lame duck all point to a single conclusion: The

president who came into office speaking in lofty terms about bipartisanship and cooperation can

only cement his legacy if he destroys the GOP. If he wants to transform American politics, he must go for the throat.President Obama could, of course, resign himself to tending to the achievements of his first term. He'd make sure health care reform is

implemented, nurse the economy back to health, and put the military on a new footing after two wars. But he's more ambitious than that. He ran

for president as a one-term senator with no executive experience. In his first term, he pushed for the biggest overhaul of health care possible

because, as he told his aides, he wanted to make history. He may already have made it. There's no question that he is already a president ofconsequence. But there's no sign he's content to ride out the second half of the game in the Barcalounger. He is approaching gun control, climate

change, and immigration with wide and excited eyes. He's not going for caretaker.How should the president proceed then, ifhe wants to be bold? The Barack Obama of the first administration might have approached the task by finding some Republicans to deal with and

then start agreeing to some of their demands in hope that he would win some of their votes. It's the traditional approach. Perhaps he could add a

good deal more schmoozing with lawmakers, too. That's the old way. He has abandoned that. He doesn't think it will work and he doesn't havethe time. As Obama explained in his last press conference, he thinks the Republicans are dead set on opposing him. They cannot be unchained by

schmoozing. Even if Obama were wrong about Republican intransigence, other constraints will limit the chance for cooperation. Republican

lawmakers worried about primary challenges in 2014 are not going to be willing partners. He probably has at most 18 months before people start

dropping the lame-duck label in close proximity to his name. Obamas only remaining option is to pulverize. Whether he

succeeds in passing legislation or not, given his ambitions, his goal should be to delegitimize his opponents. Through a

series of clarifying fights over controversial issues, he can force Republicans to either side with

their coalition's most extreme elements or cause a rift in the party that will leave it , at least temporarily, in

disarray.This theory of political transformation rests on the weaponization (and slight bastardization) of the work by Yale political scientistStephen Skowronek. Skowronek has written extensively about what distinguishes transformational presidents from caretaker pres idents. In order

for a president to be transformational, the old order has to fall as the orthodoxies that kept it in power exhaust themselves. Obama's gambit in

2009 was to build a new post-partisan consensus. That didn't work, but by exploiting the weaknesses of todays

Republican Party, Obama has an opportunity to hasten the demise of the old order by increasing

the political costof having the GOP coalition defined by Second Amendment absolutists, climate science deniers, supporters of self-deportation and the pure no-tax wing.
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politics disadvantage - immigration - samford 2013

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