politics december 10

8/16/2019 Politics December 10

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Stefan BauschardDecember 10 Politics – TPA Release

TPA DA 1NC......................................................................................2!"ast Trac# No$............................................................................% – &bama Pushin'..........................................................................( – To) of the Doc#et.......................................................................*

+, -- Bi)art e/ to TPA.......................................................................+, -- Democrats e/ to TPA.............................................................10+, -- &bama PC e/ to TPA...........................................................11Asia 3ar +m)act.............................................................................12 TPA Sol4es 5lobal Trade.................................................................16 Trade e/ to 7conom/....................................................................1* Trade Sol4es 8ots)ot 7scalation....................................................1A29 No Asia 3ar.............................................................................20 TPA e/ to TPP...............................................................................2: TPP Critical to Resol4e Asian Po$er Con;icts.................................26 TPP Russia Scenario.......................................................................2*

TPP Sol4es <e=ico Relations..........................................................2> – TPA At the To) of the Docet......................................................6(

?anuar/ A'enda Ans$ers...................................................................6*8ealth Care@ Ta= Reform@ +mmi'ration Reform Ans$ers.................6 TPA Ans$ers...................................................................................6> TPATPP Ans$ers -- N...................................................................%1 TTP Ans$ers...................................................................................%: TT+P Ans$ers..................................................................................%6

&ther ,ame Duc#..............................................................................%% Ta= 7=tenders in ,ame Duc#..........................................................%( Ta= 7=tenders .............................................................................%*

A<" ,ame Duc# Ans$er..............................................................%

1




TPA DA 1NC

Obama pushing TPA, will pass now and it’s key torelations with China

Reuters, 1!"-16@ UPDATE 1-Obama says will make strong push for fast-track trade authority acti!a" DOA# 1$-1%-1&

.S. President Barac# Obama on 3ednesda/ #ommitted to urgelawmakers to ba#k a bill gi$ing trade deals a %ast tra#k through

Congress , an e&ort some think #ould break a log'am on the

issue and help se#ure ma'or agreements under negotiation.S)ea#in' to business leaders@ he ac#no$led'ed dierences $ithin his o$n Democratic Part/ onfree trade a'reements that he su))orts and said he $ould also ma#e the case to unions thattrade brou'ht benets for $or#ers. A bill to 'i4e the &bama administration so-called fast-trac#)o$er@ $hich $ould allo$ onl/ /es-or-no 4otes on trade deals in Con'ress $ithout

amendments@ has been stuc# all /ear. Obama said he planned to speak to#ongressional leaders on both sides to make (a strong #ase onthe merits o% why this has to get done)( Trade e*perts saidpersonal inter$ention by the president would boost support %ortrade )romotion authorit/@ or TPA, in Congress, where there isopposition %rom some Republi#ans as well as Demo#rats. (+tshould help mo$e TPA along both be#ause it will help persuadewa$ering Demo#rats that supporting it is the right thing to do and because it $ill demonstrate to Re)ublicans that the )resident is $illin' to $ade into the'ht@ National "orei'n Trade Council President Bill Reinsch said. Anal/sts sa/ fast-trac#authorit/ $ould )ersuade other countries to ma#e their best oers durin' ne'otiations@ securein the #no$led'e that an/ )act could not be reo)ened b/ Con'ress. &bama said free trade is

tou'h )olitics amon' some la$ma#ers because man/ Americans feel their $a'es and incomeha4e sta'nated as a result of forei'n trade. 8e said his ar'ument to .S. labor unions anden4ironmental 'rou)s concerned about the im)act of free-trade a'reements is that ne$ tradedeals@ such as the 12-countr/ Trans-Pacic Partnershi)@ $ill hel) raise labor and en4ironmentalstandards. Part of m/ ar'ument to Democrats is9 donEt 'ht the last $ar@ &bama told theBusiness Roundtable@ notin' that com)anies $antin' to mo4e oshore for chea)er labor had)robabl/ alread/ done so. "ift/ )ercent of Americans thin# trade destro/s Fobs and 6% )ercentthin# it lo$ers $a'es@ accordin' to a )oll from the Pe$ Research Center. &bama said anti-tradesentiment had also increased amon' Re)ublicans. nions $ere disa))ointed b/ the comments@but the incomin' head of the Senate "inance Committee@ Re)ublican &rrin 8atch@ said&bamaEs lon' o4erdue su))ort $ould be 4ital to )ass TPA in Con'ress. The .S. Chamber ofCommerce said &bama should meet $ith and tele)hone members of Con'ress to ma#e the

case for TPA. +t-s $ital to make this a broad, bipartisan $ote,( said</ron Brilliant@ the 'rou)Es head of international aairs.

Plan burns #apital .insert/

Politi#al #apital key to TPA, whi#h will strengthenrelations with China

2




CG 3ee#l/@ December 6@ 2016@ H5&P Could &)en Doors to BeiFin'@ID&A9 12->-16

A lame duc# )resident $ith a le'ac/ on his mind and an o))osition)art/ ea'er to )ro4e its 'o4ernin' abilit/ could be the unli#el/

combination needed to ad4ance .S.-China relations. Durin' theBeFin'-s)onsored Asia-Pacic 7conomic Summit last month@ PresidentBarac# Obama told his Chinese counter)art@ Ji 0inping, that hewanted to take Ameri#a-s relationship with China (to a newle$el)( 8e re-em)hasiKed this )oint durin' a meetin' $ith .S. business leaders on3ednesda/. + thin# $e ha4e to be cautious and clear-e/ed about our relationshi) $ith China@but thereEs no reason $h/ $e should not be able to mana'e that relationshi) in a $a/ that is)roducti4e for us and )roducti4e for the $orld@ the )resident said. The same could be true for the 3hite 8ouse and Con'ress. At least thatEs $hat )olic/ e=)ertsand some la$ma#ers are ho)in'. +f /ou thin# about the im)act of ha4in' a Re)ublicanmaForit/ in the Senate in the incomin' Con'ress for .S.-China relations and the .S. )ositionin Asia@ itEs actuall/ 4er/ si'nicant@ sa/s enneth ,ieberthal@ director of the ?ohn ,. ThorntonChina Center at the Broo#in's +nstitution. At the to) of the list of benets $ould be on trade

a'reements -- here $e can see the administration and the Re)ublicans come to'ether andma#e some real head$a/. The economic relationshi) bet$een the t$o countries has 'ro$nmar#edl/ o4er the )ast three decades $ith total trade increasin' from L2 billion in 1>*> toL%(2 billion in 201:. The nited States counts China as its second-lar'est tradin' )artner@

third-lar'est e=)ort mar#et and lar'est source of im)orts. Obama addressed his#ommitment to %urther e*panding trade ties with nations inthe region, includin' BeiFin'@ and his $illin'ness to $or# $ith Re)ublicans to do so durin'3ednesda/Es Business Roundtable meetin'. Those $ho o))ose these trade deals ironicall/are acce)tin' a status Muo that is more dama'in' to American $or#ers@ the )resident said.There are fol#s in m/ o$n )art/ and in m/ o$n constituenc/ that ha4e le'itimate com)laintsabout some of the trend lines of ineMualit/@ but are bar#in' u) the $ron' tree $hen it comes too))osin' the Trans-Pacic Partnershi)O@ and +Em 'oin' to ha4e to ma#e that ar'ument. Republi#an proponents o% trade e*pansion in#lude in#oming

enate 2a'ority 3eader <itch 2#Connell of entuc#/ and 8ouse S)ea#er ?ohn A. Boehner of &hio. Send us some trade a'reements@ <cConnell said he told Obama in

a )hone call after his )art/ dominated the midterm elections. Re). Paul D. Ryan of3isconsin@ the in#oming #hairman o% the power%ul 4ays and2eans Committee, si'ned a letter to .S. Trade Re)resentati4e<ichael "roman in ?ul/ ba#king the administrationEs )ush for )assa'eof trade )romotion authorit/ TPA/ -- informall/ #no$n as fast-trac# -- that $ouldallo$ the )resident to submit the )ro)osed TPP and other trade a'reements to Con'ress forstrai'ht u)-or-do$n 4otes $ithout amendment. &ther China-related issues ma/ also arisebefore the committee@ includin' an e=amination of .S.-China Bilateral +n4estment Treat/ne'otiations. 3e are read/ and $illin' to $or# closel/ $ith our collea'ues on both sides of theaisle and in the 8ouse and Senate@ R/an and the 22 other Re)ublicans on the committee$rote to "roman. 3e loo# for$ard to $or#in' closel/ $ith the administration to ensure the

successful enactment of TPA and the subseMuent successful conclusion of TPP. ,ast ?anuar/@bi)artisan fast-trac# le'islation hit a roadbloc# $hen Senate <aForit/ ,eader 8arr/ Reid@ aNe4ada Democrat@ declared his o))osition. But ne=t /ear@ $ith <cConnellEs su))ort and tahRe)ublican &rrin 8atch at the helm of the Senate "inance Committee@ the measure is li#el/ tocome u) for consideration. The "inance CommitteeEs Furisdiction includes trade a'reements@customs and im)ort Muotas. The committee also 4ets nominees for #e/ trade )osts in the Treasur/ and Commerce de)artments and the &ce of the .S. Trade Re)resentati4e.,ouisiana Re)ublican Charles Boustan/ ?r.@ co-chairman of both the bi)artisan .S.-China3or#in' 5rou) and the "riends of Trans-Pacic Partnershi) caucus@ ho)es to become the ne=thead of the 8ouse 3a/s and <eans Trade Subcommittee@ $hich $ould allo$ him to )ush for anumber of measures that could benet trade $ith the Chinese. 3e ha4e to continue to ma#e

:




the case that our trade relationshi) $ith China is 4itall/ im)ortant. 3e need to continue to$or# throu'h mar#et barriers and 'et to a )oint $here $e can clear u) a $hole host of issues@includin' )ro)ert/ theft and so forth@ sa/s Boustan/@ $ho led an ei'ht-member dele'ationfrom the 3or#in' 5rou) to China in <arch. At the same time@ + thin# itEs 4itall/ im)ortant that$e mo4e for$ard on TPP. 3e need to continue to )ress on these economic reforms so thatChina $ill ultimatel/ come on board. Pressure Points for Reform Some continue to see the TPPas an o))ortunit/ for the .S. to rebalance its )osition in the re'ion and contain China@ $hich is

not amon' the 12 countries )artici)atin' in the ne'otiations. But others@ li#e Boustan/@ donEte=)ect BeiFin' to o)t out of membershi) fore4er. 3hile the/ $ill not be one of the foundin'members@ + ha4e heard Chinese leaders at hi'h le4els tal# about usin' the a'reement as ane=ternal )ressure )oint to encoura'e internal chan'es@ ,ieberthal sa/s. 3e sa$ them beha4ethe same $a/ $ith the 3T&. ,ieberthal is referrin' to ChinaEs decision to Foin the 3orld Trade&r'aniKation in 2001 after initiall/ usin' the countr/Es outsider status as a means to o4ercomeobstacles to domestic reform and reduce subsidies@ taris@ )rice controls and other elements of

its state-led econom/. The/ want to use a##ession negotiations to theTPP the way they used a##ession to the 4TO !! to help gi$ethem the #apability to make #hanges at home@ $hich are ultimatel/ 'oin' to be in

AmericaEs interest@ ,ieberthal adds. Obama said 3ednesda/ that he belie4es an ancillar/ benet of TPP is to create hi'h standards in there'ion that then China has to ada)t to@ as o))osed to a race to the bottom $here thereEs no +P )rotection@ for e=am)le ... An e4en 'reaterste) to$ard stren'thenin' the relationshi) $ould be )ro'ress on a .S.-China Bilateral +n4estment Treat/ B+T@ somethin' &bama said on3ednesda/ that Ji is interested in seein' come to fruition. That could be si'nicant because it could hel) to chan'e the en4ironment in $hich/ou are able to in4est in China $ithout bein' discriminated a'ainst relati4e to domestic rms@ the )resident told business leaders@ addin'93eE4e 'ot a lot of $or# to do on that@ but thatEs a $or# stream that $eE4e set u). The Senate "orei'n Relations Committee@ $hich $ill be led

ne=t /ear b/ Re)ublican Bob Cor#er of Tennessee@ $ill 4et the in4estment treat/ once itEs com)leted. Cor#er@ li#e 8atch@ has been a consistentsu))orter of free trade@ includin' o))osin' le'islation the Senate )assed in 2011 to )enaliKe China if it $as found to be im)ro)erl/mani)ulatin' its currenc/ for economic ad4anta'e. +f the Chinese $ere to come for$ard $ith an ambitious 'ood oer in earl/ 201%@ + thin#/ou $ill see the business communit/ most denitel/ read/ to $or# acti4el/ to la/ the 'round$or# for a))ro4al of the a'reement but also tohel) $ith that more acti4e en'a'ement $ith members of Con'ress on )assa'e@ sa/s 7rin 7nnis@ 4ice )resident of the .S.-China BusinessCouncil. An &ctober letter or'aniKed b/ the council and si'ned b/ %1 American C7&s $ho bac# the in4estment treat/ said9 There are fe$other commercial outcomes that $ould 'ain as much su))ort from business leaders in both the nited States and China. The lon'-runnin'tal#s 'ot a boost in 201: $hen China a'reed that the treat/ should co4er all )hases of in4estment and include all commercial sectors e=ce)tthose s)ecicall/ e=cluded on a ne'ati4e list. +n their letter@ the C7&s ur'ed &bama to )ress Ji for a ne'ati4e list that e=cludes as fe$sectors as )ossible. +n4estment barriers are mar#et access barriers@ )lain and sim)le@ the 'rou) said. +f China can si'nicantl/ reduce itsne'ati4e list and o)en mar#ets to American manufacturers@ a'riculture )roducers@ and ser4ice )ro4iders@ /ou $ill nd the business communit/full/ en'a'ed and su))orti4e of /our leadershi) to 'ain Senate a))ro4al of the treat/.3ashin'ton Democratic Re). Ric# ,arsen@ co-chairman of the .S.-China 3or#in' 5rou)@ sa/s heEs condent the Chinese $ill edit do$n theirlist. China has a'reed to come bac# to the table and the/ $ouldnEt come bac# to the table unless the/ had somethin' to ne'otiate $ith@,arsen said. +E4e had this discussion $ith Chinese leaders $hen + $as in China last <arch. A STR s)o#esman for "roman sa/s a hi'h-Mualit/Ene'ati4e listE $ill be critical to the success of these ne'otiations.But e=)erts sa/ the cloc# is tic#in'. ThereEs a small $indo$ of time before the 201( )residential election suc#s u) all the o=/'en in the room@

,ieberthal sa/s. So the real 5uestion is whether the president is willingto e*pend #onsiderable politi#al #apital to make trade a real

priority in early 617)( One signal that the 4hite 8ouse isprioriti9ing the agenda is a (breakthrough( agreementannoun#ed during the president-s $isit to :ei'ing that wouldeliminate tari&s on high!te#h produ#ts in 7; #ountries,in#luding the <nited tates and China) (The idea is to mo$e =a%ast!tra#k> bill as 5ui#kly as possible@ $hich is $h/ the )residentEs s$in'throu'h China and the re'ion $as so a''ressi4e. 8e $ants to mo4e Muic#l/. The hi'h-tech deal

$as a start@ accordin' to a s)o#esman in the trade re)resentati4eEs oce. u##ess%ul#ongressional mo$ement on %ast!tra#king sends a strong signalto leaders in :ei'ing #onsidering the ne*t step in thein$estment treaty negotiations) +% we get TPA, it shows that at

least on the international e#onomi# side, this is not a situationwhere whate$er the president proposes, the Congress 'ustwon-t let him ha$e it,( 3ieberthal says. And if the Chinese see us mo4in'@the/ $ill ha4e an incenti4e to mo4e more ra)idl/ too. &ther$ise@ the/Ell run into succession)roblems of their o$n@ $hich could )ush the B+T o until 201. And a lot of bad thin's canha))en bet$een no$ and then.

6




Nu#lear #on?i#t with China is an @+T@NT+A3 risk B #ausesnu#lear winter4ittner 11 .11"611 Dr) 3awren#e, Pro% o% 8istory@meritus at <N Albany, +s a Nu#lear 4ar with ChinaPossibleEF/

But $hat $ould that 4ictor/ entailQ An atta#k with these Chinesenu#lear weapons would immediately slaughter at least 16million Ameri#ans in a great storm o% blast and Gre, whilelea$ing many more dying horribly o% si#kness and radiationpoisoning) The Chinese death toll in a nu#lear war would be %arhigher. Both nations $ould be reduced to smolderin'@ radioacti4e$astelands. Also@ radioa#ti$e debris sent alo%t by the nu#leare*plosions would blot out the sun and bring on a (nu#learwinter( around the globe -- destroying agri#ulture, #reatingworldwide %amine, and generating #haos and destru#tion.<oreo4er@ in another decade the e=tent of this catastro)he $ould be

far $orse. The Chinese 'o4ernment is currentl/ e=)andin' its nucleararsenal@ and b/ the /ear 2020 it is e=)ected to more than double itsnumber of nuclear $ea)ons that can hit the nited States. The .S.'o4ernment@ in turn@ has )lans to s)end hundreds of billions of dollarsmoderniKin' its nuclear $ea)ons and nuclear )roduction facilitieso4er the ne=t decade.

%

http://www.nukestrat.com/china/Book-35-125.pdf

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/30/nuclear-powers-weapons-spending-report

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/30/nuclear-powers-weapons-spending-report

http://www.nukestrat.com/china/Book-35-125.pdf




<HIast Tra#k Now

Iast!tra#k passage likely

,ee 8amilton, 1!J, 16 8amilton directs the Center on Con'ress at+ndiana ni4ersit/. 8e $as a member of the .S. 8ouse ofRe)resentati4es for :6 /ears@ SA Toda/@ HCon'ress@ President shouldcoo)eration on the small stu@Ihtt)9$$$.thetimesherald.comstor/o)inioncolumnists2016120>con'ress-)resident-coo)erate-small-stu201(2:>> D&A9 12->-16

,ee 8amilton directs the Center on Con'ress at +ndiana ni4ersit/. 8e$as a member of the .S. 8ouse of Re)resentati4es for :6 /ears. &nthe other hand@ Congress can )robabl/ mana'e to a4oid a'o4ernment shutdo$n@ and it %a#es de#ent prospe#ts o%

e*panding and prote#ting our energy boom, promoting %ast!tra#k trade authority@ and fundin' #e/ infrastructure needs. Defenses)endin' $ill not be further reduced.

TPA likely to pass, Demo#rats are key

3inni)e' "ree Press@ 12-@ 16@ HBi)artisanshi) <a/ Not Be Dead in.S.@I htt)9$$$.$inni)e'free)ress.como)inionanal/sis&ther-&)inion-Bi)artisanshi)-ma/-not-be-dead-in-S-2%10%0:1.html D&A912->-16For all the heat he’s taking over other issues, from foreign policy to Ferguson, Mo., President Obama

deserves more credit for the economy’s soft landing after the Great Recession, even if he has to share it

with the Fed and the boom in domestic energy production. His remarks in a meeting with the Business

Roundtable last week showed that he has at least a couple of realistic ideas for how he and the new

Republican-controlled Congress can help consolidate the recovery in 2015. Specifically, Obama

emphasized the prospects for a bipartisan agreements on tax reform and international trade. Neither

of those will be easy, but the latter is probably more achievable in the short term — especially if

Obama follows through on his pledge to take on "folks in my own party and in my own

constituency" who oppose it. Republicans already back legislation that would permit Congress to

consider proposed free trade pacts with the European Union and 11 Pacific Rim nations on an expedited

basis, once Obama’s team finishes negotiating them. This bill, known as trade promotion authority (TPA),

would make it easier for U.S. negotiators to complete the deals because it gives the other nations

involved greater assurance that Congress cannot undermine what the president agrees to. Yet until now,

Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid, D-Nev., a long-time trade skeptic, has slow-walked TPA. By

contrast, Reid’s soon-to-be successor, Republican Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, is a TPA enthusiast.

That makes sense generally — and especially with regard to these two proposed trade deals, which

involve mainly high-wage, environmentally conscious trading partners such as Europe, Japan,

Australia and Singapore. In a separate meeting with business leaders, McConnell expressed the view that

"there’s a potential for agreement" on trade. Still, TPA would take 60 votes to clear the Senate. If

McConnell is willing to deliver most or all of his Senate Republican majority’s votes for this long-

(

http://www.thetimesherald.com/story/opinion/columnists/2014/12/09/congress-president-cooperate-small-stuff/20162399/


http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/analysis/Other-Opinion-Bipartisanship-may-not-be-dead-in-US-285105031.html









postponed Obama administration policy objective, and if Obama reciprocates by pushing Democrats

to join, Americans will see growth-enhancing proof that bipartisanship is not dead.

*




< B Obama Pushing

Obama will push TPA

+nside < Trade, 1!7-16@ '( T)O *PEE+,E* O.A/A *A0* ,E )'/A2E +A*E O3 TPA TO +O(43E**

President Obama this week told business groups on twoseparate o##asions that he will rea#h out to Demo#rati# andRepubli#an leaders in the 8ouse and enate about the need topass Trade Promotion Authorit/ TPA/, but said it will be#hallenging to a#hie$e passage because man/ Americansmista#enl/ attribute the sta'nation of their $a'es and incomes totrade a'reements. +n a Dec. : s)eech to the Business Roundtable

BRT@ Obama said he will be (making a strong #ase on themerits as to why =TPA> has to get done to Senate <inorit/ ,eader<itch <cConnell R-@ 8ouse S)ea#er ?ohn Boehner R-&8@ Senate<aForit/ ,eader 8arr/ Reid D-N and 8ouse <inorit/ ,eader Nanc/Pelosi D-CA.

8ere K Now, 1!L-16@ President 3ants Con'ressional "ast Trac# "or 2 Trade Deals@ htt)9hereandno$.$bur.or'2016120con'ressional-fast-trac# D&A9 12-10-16

President Obama is stepping up a #ampaign to get %ast!tra#kF

authority %rom Congress %or two big trade deals) The Trans-Pacic Partnershi) and the Transatlantic Trade and +n4estmentPartnershi) $ould o)en more trade bet$een Asia and 7uro)e. The deals could be a boon to American farmers@ )ac#a'ers andshi))in' com)anies. There are e4en si'ns the )resident could 'et thesu))ort he needs from the incomin' Re)ublican Con'ress.But some members of &bamas base ! union members ! and his TeaPart/ critics are tr/in' to drum u) o))osition to both a'reements.nion re)s are e=)ected to )rotest toda/ outside the &ce of thenited States Trade Re)resentati4e.

http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2014/12/08/congressional-fast-track







< B Top o% the Do#ket

TPA within Grst " months, #apital key

ic#i Needham, 16!"6@ 16@ htt)9thehill.com)olic/nance2222(1-no-fast-trac#-in-lame-duc# The 8ill@ No "ast-Trac# in the ,ame Duc#D&A9 12-10-16

,ame-duc# a))ro4al of trade )romotion authorit/@ $hich $ould ma#e iteasier to ne'otiate trade deals b/ ma#in' them subFect to an u)-or-do$n 4ote in the Senate@ had lon' been a dream for the 'rou)s. No$ itappears the best #han#e %or mo$ing %orward with thelegislation would be ne*t year H )articularl/ if Re)ublicans ta#eo4er the Senate.Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), who is line to become chairman of the Senate Finance Committee under a

Republican takeover, has said moving the legislation would be a top priority.

Ezell said that a Republican Congress could produce a TPA bill within the first three months of next

year.

But a Senate aide suggested that the White House and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative

would need to do outreach to lawmakers in both parties to ensure passage.

Most House Democrats are opposed to fast-track authority, and could be even less likely to support it if it’s

drawn up by a Republican Congress for a lame-duck Democratic president.

>

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/222261-no-fast-track-in-lame-duck







+3 !! :ipart Mey to TPA

:ipartisanship key to %ast!tra#k

CQ Executive Briefings, 12-5-1& .oehner +hides President o!er ast-Track Authority

:oehner said getting %ast!tra#k through the 8ouse wouldre5uire OP and Demo#rati# $otes. The )resident $ould ha4e to$or# on buildin' that #ind of su))ort@ the s)ea#er noted. +E4e madeclear that not only =does> the president ha$e to ask %or it, buthe has to work to build bipartisan support to get it passed,(:oehner said)

:ipart key to the TPA B sol$es the TPP:arGeld 61; Claude@ former consultant to the oce of the S Trade Re)resentati4e and a

resident scholar at the American 7nter)rise +nstitute@ +ts do or die for the TPP 1: Au'ust 2016htt)9$$$.eastasiaforum.or'201601:its-do-or-die-for-the-t))8eadin' into the fth /ear of intense ne'otiations $ith t$ent/-odd formal sessions and countless informal

side meetin's@ the Trans-Pacic Partnershi) TPP a'reement $ill almost certainl/succeed ! or fail ! o4er the ne=t si= months. President &bama has set the

No4ember AP7C leaders meetin' as his )ersonal deadline for the broad outlines of a deal encom)assin'and o4ercomin' the maFor challen'es in this )ur)orted Ut$ent/-rst centur/ trade )act. The 12 TPPmember nations ha4e )re4iousl/ blo$n )ast similar deadlines in 2012 and 201:V but this time the )oliticalcalendar and ne'otiatin' $eariness dictate that a continuin' stalemate at /ears end $ill deal a cri))lin'blo$ to a successful outcome. 3ith re'ard to the ne'otiatin' d/namic@ failure to achie4e maFor substanti4ebrea#throu'hs b/ earl/ 201% $ill e4o#e the dreaded UDoha s/ndrome ima'e. The 3T&s multilateral DohaRound of trade ne'otiations has dra''ed on for 12 /ears. Currentl/@ a des)erate search for com)romise ona small fraction of ne'otiatin' issues seems to ha4e failed. 3hate4er the outcome of this tail-end eort@the 3T& e=)erience $ill )ro4ide ammunition for TPP sce)tics $ho $ill cite Doha as the rueful model for

Ubitin' o more than /ou can che$ in trade ne'otiations $ith )redictable results. Turnin' to the)olitical calendar and a shiftin' )olitical balance of forces@ as is often the

case@ the < nited tates remains the #entral %a#tor to any agreement

on the TPP . "irst@ thou'h it is less an iron rule than sometimes )ortra/ed@ the 201(

)residential cam)ai'n $ill increasin'l/ intrude u)on all )olic/ issues ! and

)articularl/ u)on the di4isi4e trade a'enda. This realit/ dictates a )ush for at

least broad a'reement on #e/ TPP com)romises b/ ?anuar/ or "ebruar/.

Assumin' solid ad4ances in the TPP ne'otiatin' frame$or#@ $hat are the )olitical )ath$a/s ! and )olitical

snares ! to S ratication of the a'reementQ The Demo#rati# Party remains deeply

di$ided on trade poli#y in 'eneral and on the TPP spe#iG#ally . President

&bama@ on the other hand@ has ele$ated the TPP as a sin'le 'oal for his

second termV and $hile there are si'ns of lame-duc# erosion@ ha4in' a Democratic)resident solidl/ behind a trade ne'otiation still $ill ma#e@ at least@ amar'inal dierence. The 8ouse of Re)resentati4es $ill be #e/. 8ouse Re)ublicans can still deli4er

at least three-Muarters of the Re)ublican maForit/ in fa4our of the TPP. The Tea Part/s 20114otes on the Panama@ Colombia and South orea "TAs su''est that the/

$ill also su))ort the TPP ! des)ite an/ animosit/ to$ard President &bama. As %or the

enate , on#e again it is likely that the basi#s will pre$ail a si9eable

10




ma'ority o% Republi#ans will #ombine with a minority o% Demo#rats

to produ#e a TPP ma'ority . Be/ond these basics@ the near-term )olitical calendar is dice/.

"irst@ there is the )roblem of the Trade Promotion Authorit/ TPA@ the authorit/ 'ranted b/ Con'ress toe=)edite an u)-or-do$n 4ote on trade a'reements $ithin a certain time. <aFor )olitical com)lications ha4est/mied eorts to )ass a bi)artisan bill. ,ast $ee#@ Re)ublicans on the 3a/s and <eans Committeenotied the administration that the/ $ould demand a 4ote on a TPA bill before TPP ne'otiations $ere

com)leted. ,oo#in' to the future@ there are a number of )ossible scenarios that could )la/ out. But most$ill de)end on the outcome of the midterm election and $ho holds the maForit/ in Con'ress. +f Re)ublicans$in the senate@ the/ ma/ )ut o TPA until ?anuar/ and the ne$ con'ress. The role that the S Con'resscould )la/ is )remised on the assum)tion that the substanti4e ne'otiations )roduce an acce)table set of

com)romises b/ /ears end. 3hat are the d/namics of such a resultQ "irst@ the TPP has beentouted as a Ut$ent/-rst centur/ a'reement@ meanin' that it $ill sta#eout ne$ territor/ in liberalisin' Ubehind-border barriers to trade inser4ice sectors@ state-o$ned enter)rises@ health and safet/ measures @ meanin'ful re'ulator/ reform and con4er'ence@ intellectual )ro)ert/ @ andin4estment arbitration@ amon' others. But alon'side these ne$ issues loom old 'hts on t$entieth

centur/ issues relatin' to industrial and a'ricultural taris and subsidies in sectors such as te=tiles@clothin' shoes@ su'ar@ cotton@ rice and 'rains. ?a)an is demandin' s)ecial treatment that is@ )rotection for4e Usacred items ! rice@ $heat and barle/@ )or# and beef@ dair/ and su'ar ! and it is loc#ed in a line-b/-line battle $ith the nited States to th$art l iberalisation in these sectors. Currentl/@ it loo#s as if ?a)an $ill

concede somethin' in each sector ! )articularl/ )or#@ beef and dair/ ! but $ill not be forced to 'o to Kerotaris in all 4e areas. Both sides ha4e )romised #e/ announcements in &ctober at the latest. Anacce)table com)romise on the old@ t$entieth centur/ issues is tied directl/ to other ne'otiations on inside-the-border issues. "or instance@ ietnam has told the S that it is not )re)ared to ma#e concessions inin4estment $ithout concessions on te=tiles and shoes. Australias trade minister o)enl/ stated thatAustralias o))osition to an inde)endent in4estor arbitration bod/ and some S demands on intellectual)ro)ert/ mi'ht ease if a better deal emer'ed on lamb and beef )roducts. &ther TPP countries ha4esi'nalled o)enness to similar trade-os. +t is 'oin' to ta#e both luc# and s#ill to brin' o this hi'h-$ire act

o4er the ne=t si= months. But much is ridin' on a successful outcome for the

S 9 the TPP has become the single most important symbol o% %uture

< leadership in Asia . "ailure $ill ha4e not onl/ economic but also

debilitatin' di)lomatic and securit/ conseMuences. 3ithin the nited States@ t$o

are im)erati4es9 hands-on )residential leadershi) admittedl/ not a normal &bama stren'th and

res)onsible initiati4es from con'ressional Re)ublicans ! $ho ha4e )ro4ided the bedroc# maForities for"TAs for the )ast t$o decades.

11




+3 !! Demo#rats Mey to TPA

Demo#rati# $otes needed to pass TPA

Inside U.S. Trade, 12-5-1& .3O)( *EE2* TO '(+UDE T3ADE 3E/ED0.' '( TPA ,'(T* AT A+T'O( .0 /'D-$%15

Trade lobbyists on both sides o% the debate@ mean$hile@ ha4ealso said that e$en though Republi#ans will #ontrol Congressbeginning ne*t year, they are unlikely to #ompletely 'ettisonDemo#rati# priorities %rom a TPA bill be#ause they will stillha$e to rely on Demo#rati# support to some degree to pass thelegislation. At the CIR e$ent, :rown seemed to lend #reden#eto the notion that Republi#ans will need to rely on some

Demo#rati# $otes to pass a TPA bill gi$en that some memberso% the OP #au#us are likely to oppose su#h legislation)

12




+3 !! Obama .PC/ Mey to TPA

Obama in?uen#e key to TPA

Inside U.S. Trade, 12-5-1& ,AT+, *A0* O.A/A )A(T* TPA .UT ,OPE*,E )' /A2E *T3O(4E3 +A*E

7arlier in the da/@ 8atch said that &bamaEs remar#s means the)resident reco'niKed the im)ortance of TPA. Toda/@ the Presidentrightly a#knowledged TPA is #riti#al to ad$an#ing his tradeagenda and #reating prosperity %or Ameri#an 'ob!#reators andworkers,( he said in a De#) " statement) (The President-sin?uen#e, parti#ularly among members o% his own party, willbe a $ital #omponent to #ongressional e&orts)(

Capital key to TPA

ic#i Needham, 16!"6@ 16@ htt)9thehill.com)olic/nance2222(1-no-fast-trac#-in-lame-duc# The 8ill@ No "ast-Trac# in the ,ame Duc#

Fast track has never been an easy lift for Congress and those hoping for a lame-duck deal could be

accused of wishful thinking. The last bill, signed into law in 2002 by President George W. Bush,

squeaked through the House by just two votes after a massive lobbying campaign.

1:








Asia 4ar +mpa#t

Asia war goes nu#lear8iatt 2101" "red@ Heditorial )a'e editor of The Post. 8e $rites editorials for the ne$s)a)er and

a bi$ee#l/ column that a))ears on <onda/s. 8e also contributes to the PostPartisan blo'. 8iatt has been

$ith The Post since 1>1. 7arlier@ he $or#ed as a re)orter for the Atlanta ?ournal and the 3ashin'ton Star.At The Post@ he co4ered 'o4ernment@ )olitics@ de4elo)ment and other issues in "airfa= Count/ andstate$ide in ir'inia@ and later militar/ and national securit/ aairs on the ne$s)a)ers national sta. "rom1>* to 1>>0@ he and his $ife $ere co-bureau chiefs of The Posts To#/o bureau@ and from 1>>1 to 1>>%the/ ser4ed as corres)ondents and co-bureau chiefs in <osco$. 8e Foined the editorial board in 1>>( andbecame editorial )a'e editor in 2000. 8e is the author of HThe Secret Sun9 A No4el of ?a)an@I $hich $as)ublished in 1>>2@ as $ell as t$o boo#s for children@ H+f + 3ere Gueen of the 3orldI 1>>* and HBab/ Tal# I1>>>. HAsian tensions add ur'enc/ to &bamas U)i4otI htt)9articles.$ashin'ton)ost.com201:-02-10o)inions:*02(1*6W1W#im-Fon'-eun-diao/u-islands-/oun'-leader

As President Obama )onders his second-term forei'n )olic/@ he %a#es 'ihadists s)readin'

a#ross North A%ri#a, yria dissol$ing into #haos, +sraelis andPalestinians %urther apart than e$er, +ra5 trending toward #i$il war,A%ghanistan mired in #orruption and +ran relentlessly a##elerating its

nu#lear program) That may turn out to be the easy stu& . +n Asia@ thin's

could 'et reall/ scar/. Since he entered the 3hite 8ouse@ Obama has wanted to shi%t attention

and resour#es to the Pa#iG#. The bi''est o))ortunities are there9 economic 'ro$th@

inno4ation@ )otential for cross-border in4estment and trade. That the 1st #entury will bea Pa#iG# #entury has be#ome a #li#he) The #li#he may still pro$e out .

But rather suddenl/@ the region o% e#onomi# mira#les has be#ome a 9one o%

%rightening #on%rontation . The North Moreans are turning out $ideos

depi#ting New ork in ?ames) Chinese warships ha4e G*ed theirweapon!targeting radar on a 0apanese ship and helico)ter. uarrels ha4e

intensiGed between outh Morea and 0apan, North Morea and outhMorea, China and the Philippines, +ndia and China) Taiwan is always a

possible ?ashpoint) Any one o% these #ould drag the < nited tatesin ) The scariest de4elo)ment ma/ be in North Morea@ the $orlds onl/ hereditar/ )rison cam)@

$here the /oun' leader ! the third!generation Mim H seems determined to

e*pand and impro$e his nu#lear arsenal until he be#omes a genuine

threat not only to outh Morea and 0apan but to the < nited tates as

well. Chinese oQ#ials are said to be alarmed b/ his intransi'ence but unwilling to tryto rein him in, %earing e$en more the instability that mi'ht result. &bama in his rst

term ado)ted a reasonable )olic/ of i'norin' North orea as much as )ossible@ $hile ma#in' clear that he$ould reci)rocate if it became more accommodatin'. im ?on' 7un@ $ho is thou'ht to be in his late 20s@

could nd $a/s to ma#e that stance untenable. <ean$hile@ China’s in#reasing

asserti$eness dis#omGts neighbors throughout outheast and @ast

Asia . China has #laimed pretty mu#h the whole outh China ea @ thou'h

its coastline is farther from much of it than that of ietnam@ <ala/sia or the Phili))ines) +t has sentplanes and ships to #hallenge 0apan o$er a %ew ro#ky out#roppingsthat 0apan #alls the enkakus and China the Diao/u +slands. +t has been steadilyin#reasing the si9e and #apability o% its military %or#esV for the rst time in

man/ /ears@ a neighbor, 0apan, is %ollowing suit . +f all this seems decidedl/ last

centur/@ ma/be its because ne$ leaders in e4er/ #e/ countr/ are second- or third-'eneration@ bearin' theburdens of their )ast. ?a)anese Prime <inister ShinKo Abe is the 'randson of a leader of im)erial ?a)an!includin' in occu)ied China ! $ho remade himself as a )ro-American )rime minister after 3orld 3ar ++.

16

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-02-10/opinions/37026174_1_kim-jong-eun-diaoyu-islands-young-leader








South oreas )resident-elect@ Par# 5eun-h/e@ is the dau'hter of a lon'time )residentV her mother $as#illed b/ a de4otee of North orea. The bullet $as intended for her father@ $ho $as later assassinated b/his intelli'ence chief. Ji ?in)in'@ Chinas ne$ )resident@ is the son of a re4olutionar/ collea'ue of <ao

Tsetun' $ho hel)ed battle the ?a)anese durin' 3orld 3ar ++. North oreas im ?on' 7un is the 'randson ofim +l-sun'@ $ho accordin' to North orean m/tholo'/ fou'ht the ?a)anese in the 1>:0s and 1>60s and

the Americans and South oreans in the 1>%0s. +t’s intriguing to spe#ulate on theghostly whisperings these leaders ma/ hear) +t may be more use%ul@ thou'h@

to %o#us on the national weaknesses that may propel them to a#t)North Morea is a %ailed and hungry state %or whi#h bla#kmail and bluster

ha$e long been the only sur$i$al strategy . China is a rising power and

a 'ro$in' econom/ ! but led by a one!party regime that may be tempted to

use nationalism to distra#t a resti$e population %rom domesti#

troubles) 0apan has dis#arded one prime minister a%ter another@ )rett/

much on an annual basis@ for most of the )ast decade@ an instability that lea$es

it pun#hing below its e#onomi# and military weight) All o% this

makes the region hungry %or <)) presen#e and leadership @ whi#h

Obama understood with his Grst!term promise o% a pi$ot F to Asia.

Re'ional leaders ho)e he can ma#e 'ood on that )romise in a second term but $onder $hether .S.)olic/@ too@ $ill be sha)ed b/ )olitical $ea#ness. The/ notice $hen the Na4/ announces that it is@ a'ain@reducin' its )lanned number of shi)s or Defense Secretar/ ,eon Panetta orders an aircraft carrier #e)t in)ort because of bud'etar/ constraints. The/ $onder $ho $ill inherit the Asia focus of former secretar/ of

state 8illar/ Rodham Clinton and de)artin' assistant secretar/ urt Cam)bell. They see the

dangers@ from <ali to andahar@ that pull Obama’s attention) They hope it

won’t take a more dangerous #risis in their region to make the

pi$ot a reality)

1%




TPA ol$es lobal Trade

ol$es global trade #ollapse

ati uominen 1;@ isitin' Assistant AdFunct Professor at C,AAnderson School of <ana'ement@ AdFunct "ello$ at CS+S@ Ph.D. Political7conom/ from C San Die'o@ Au' 6 2016@ HComin' A)art9 3T& ascohi'hli'hts ur'enc/ for the .S. to lead the 'lobal tradin' s/stem@I#atisuominen.$ord)ress.com2016006comin'-a)art

T$othreats are emer'in'. The rst is disintegration o% the trading system . The core of the s/stem until the mid-

1>>0s@ the 4TO is utterly dys%un#tional deals re5uire unanimity amon' 1(0 members@

making any cantan#erousplayer li#e +ndiaa $eto) Ali'nin' interests has been im)ossible@ turnin' all action in 'lobal trade )olic/ma#in' to free trade a'reements

"TAs@ rst #ic#ed o b/ the North American "ree Trade A'reement NA"TA in 1>>6. B/ no$@ 600 "TAs are in )lace or under ne'otiation. "TAs ha4e been 'ood cholesterol for trade@ but the o4erla))in' deals andrules also com)licate life for .S. com)anies doin' 'lobal business. &ne sin'le deal amon' all countries $ould be much )referable to the Hs)a'hetti bo$lI of "TAs@ but it is but a )ie in the s#/. So is dee)er

liberaliKation b/ )rotectionist countries li#e +ndia.X The <))!led talks %or mega!regionalF agreements $ith

7uro)e and Asia-Pacic nations@ the Trans-Atlantic Trade and +n4estment Partnershi) TT+P/ and Trans-Pacic Partnershi) TPP/, are the best

solution yet to these problems ) They %ree trade and #reate uni%ormrules among countries ma#in' u) two!thirds o% the world e#onomy . +ncidentall/@ the/ $ould create a million Fobs in

America. et both hang in balan#e thanks to ina#tion on Capitol 8ill to pass the

Trade Promotion Authorit/ TPA @ the #e/ )iece of le 'islation for a))ro4in' the me'a-deals@ no$ stuc# in a bitter )olitical 'ht as se4eral Democrats and Tea Part/ line u) in o))osition. TPA is

key %or the Obama administration to #on#lude TPP and TT+P talks 9

@uropeans and Asians are unwilling to negotiate the thorniest

topi#s be%ore they know TPA is in pla#e to constrain .S. Con'ress to 4otin' u) or do$n on these deals@ rather than amendin'

freshl/ ne'otiated te=ts.X The second threat in $orld trade is the absence of common rules of the 'ame for the 21st centur/ 'lobal di'ital econom/. As :D )rintin'@ +nternet of Thin's@ and cross-border ecommerce@and other disru)ti4e technolo'ies e=)and trade in di'ital 'oods and ser4ices@ intellectual )ro)ert/ $ill be fair 'ame – $h/ couldnt a com)an/ around the $orld sim)l/ re)licate :D )rintable )roducts and desi'ns

<ade in the SAQ Another )roblem is data prote#tionism – rules on access and trans)ort of data across borders. 7uro)eans are im)osin' limits on com)anies access to

consumer data@ com)licatin' .S. businesses customer ser4ice and mar#etin'V emer'in' mar#ets such as BraKil and ietnam are forcin' forei'n +T com)anies to locate ser4ers and build data centers as a conditionfor mar#et access@ measure that costs com)anies millions in ineciencies. A 'ro$in' number of countries claim limits on access to data on the 'rounds of Hnational securit/I and H)ublic safet/I@ familiar code $ords

for )rotectionism.X Digital prote#tionism risks balkani9ing the global $irtuale#onomy Fust as taris siloed national mar#ets in the 1>th centur/ $hen countries set out to collect re4enue and )romote infant industries – a self-defeatin' a))roach that too# $ ell o4er a

centur/ to undo@ and is still ali4e and $ell in countries li#e +ndia. The bi''est losers of digital )rotectionism are American small businesses and consumers le4era'in' their la)to)s@ iPads and smart

)hones to bu/ and sell 'oods and ser4ices around the )lanet. Trade poli#ymakers ho$e4er lag %ar behind today’s

trade , whi#h re5uires sophisti#ated rules on +P@ )irac/@ co)/ri'hts@ )atents and trademar#s@ ecommerce@ data ;o$s@ 4irtual

currencies@ and dis)ute settlement.The mega!regionals , espe#ially the TT+P, are a per%e#t 4enue

to start this )rocess) Disintegration o% trade poli#ies risk disintegrating

world markets . ?ust as after 3orld 3ar ++@ the global trading system rests in Ameri#a’s

hands . Three thin's are needed.X The rst is the appro$al o% TPA@ $hich unsha#kles <)) negotiators

to Gnali9e TPP and TT+P. <ost interestin' for .S. e=)orters@ TPP and TT+P almost de facto mer'e into a su)erdeal9 the nited States and 7 alread/ ha4e bilateral

"TAs $ith se4eral common )artners belon'in' in TPP – Peru@ Colombia@ Chile@ Australia@ Sin'a)ore@ Canada@ and <e=ico to name a fe $. 3hats more@ 'ate#ee)ers to mar#ets $ith t$o-thirds of 'lobal s)endin' )o$er@

TPP and TT+P will be giant magneti# do#king stations to outsidersSChina and :ra9il@ aimin' to re4i4e sa''in' 'ro$th@ are interested. &nce this ha))ens@ the TT+P!TPP

superdeal will #o$er L6 per#ent o% world’s output and appro*imate a

multilateral agreement – and ha4e cuttin'-ed'e common trade rules that could ne4er be a'reed in one Bi' Ban' at the 3T&.

1(




TPA $ital %or the e#onomy and global trade<ar# Mennedy@ Director@ 5raduate School of Politicla <ana'ement@5eor'e 3ashin'ton ni4ersit/@ and <ac# <c,art/@ former 3hite 8ouseChief of Sta@ H7=)and Trade@ +m)ro4e 7conom/@I SA T&DA@ 2!12!1;@ $$$.usatoda/.comstor/o)inion20160212trade-)romotion-

authorit/-obama-economic-'ro$th-column%:60>>@ accessed (-1:-16.

After stru''lin' $ith anemic 'ro$th for the last si= /ears@ the nation

no$ Gnds itsel% with an opportunity to renew its $itality through the

most power%ul e#onomi# eli*ir e*panded trade. This beneGt #annot

be a#hie$ed without 'i4in' our )artners the condence that thenited States is ne'otiatin' in 'ood faith@ free from last minutechan'es and additions. This reMuires 'i4in' President &bama TradePromotion Authorit/ commonl/ #no$n as TPA or fast trac# to

)resent trade a'reements for an u) or do$n 4ote in Con'ress.

Passin' TPA is distasteful to both Re)ublicans $ho do not the trust the)resident and Democrats $ho belie4e the benets of free trade areo4erstated. et before the/ added cherr/ ;a4ors@ man/ medicines $ith)o$erful cures had a bitter ;a4or. Ior the sake o% Ameri#a-s

e#onomi# health @ Congress must come to'ether in a bi)artisan

fashion to gi$e President Obama %ast tra#k authority, a power grantedto e$ery #hie% e*e#uti$e sin#e 1J;) The Obama Administration, ledably by <nited tates Trade Representati$e .<TR/ 2i#hael Iroman,

has engaged the @uro)ean nion and nations in the Pacic in seriousne'otiations for hi'h standard trade a'reements. These t$o accords

$ould increase ties $ith historic allies@ ma#e us more com)etiti4e@increase Fob o))ortunities@ enhance incomes and allo$ Americanbusinesses to eecti4el/ sell to the fast 'ro$in' Asian re'ion. Critics$ould ha4e /ou belie4e that someho$ these a'reements $ould$ea#en en4ironmental and labor standards@ but most )artner countriesin Muestion are alread/ hi'h-income nations that embrace stron'$or#er and en4ironmental )rotections. Ambassador "roman attem)tedto assua'e those fears sa/in'@ 3e ha4e made clear that $eErecommitted to ne'otiatin' a hi'h-standard@ ambitious com)rehensi4edeal. The TPA bill introduced b/ Sens. <a= Baucus@ D-<ont.@ and &rrin8atch@ R-tah@ alread/ incor)orates ne$ )rotections to ensure that all

)artner countries meet ri'orous 'uidelines. As President ClintonEs chief of sta $hen the North American "ree Trade A'reement NA"TA $as)assed and one of the decidin' 4otes the last time Con'ress 'ranted"ast Trac# authorit/@ $e #no$ ho$ hard it is to mo4e a si'nicant tradeaccord. 3e also #no$ ho$ the dire )redictions of s#e)tics are oftensho$n to be illusor/. The onl/ suc#in' sound induced b/ NA"TA $asthe 'as)s of trade s#e)tics $hose economic chimeras failed tomaterialiKe. NA"TA has instead e=ceeded e=)ectations. +t launched

1*

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/02/12/trade-promotion-authority-obama-economic-growth-column/5340989/







<e=ico on a )ath to stren'then its democratic institutions and)ro'ressi4el/ o)en its econom/. A more democratic and com)etiti4e<e=ico@ alon' $ith a more ti'htl/ inte'rated su))l/ chain bet$een thethree North American economies@ ma#es each member of the NA"TAtrio more com)etiti4e in $orld mar#ets. Similar benets a$ait if $e

)roceed $ith the )ro)osed Asian and 7uro)ean accords. Passing TPAwill re5uire signiG#ant attention and e&ort %rom President Obama

and Con'ress. &4er %00 ad4ocac/ 'rou)s ha4e $ritten to la$ma#ersur'in' a 4ote a'ainst it. To date@ 6> more 8ouse Democrats are onrecord o))osin' fast trac# than su))orted NA"TA in 1>>6. Ad$o#ating%or %ree trade will re5uire the president to stand up to members o%

his own party to further his economic a'enda. +t will take #ourage to

%or#e%ully ad$o#ate %or an issue that splits one-s party@ but thebenets to the nation $ill far out$ei'h an/ intra-)art/ strife. That is

what presidential leadership is all about. There has ne$er been an

e#onomi# golden age without trade. +t has been the dri4in' force

behind ne$ inno4ation. +ts e*pansion has allowed #ountless peoplethe #han#e to a#hie$e Gnan#ial prosperity and ad$an#e #i$ili9ation.

Trade has a $onderful histor/@ but $e belie4e its best da/s are stillahead. @$ery trade liberali9ation ad$an#e has enhan#ed the well

being o% man kind. The nited States has arri4ed at a monumentalo))ortunit/ to craft landmar# trade a'reements $ith the $orld. 3et us

not %ail to build a##ords that will spark e#onomi# growth @ create a

better future for our children and laun#h a new golden era o% trade .

1




Trade Mey to @#onomy

New trade deals key to the global e#onomy

#hoen 16L16 Dou'@ lon'time )olitical strate'ist@ "o= Ne$scontributor and author of se4eral boo#s@ H+tEs Time "or President&bama To Be'in ,e'ac/ Sho))in' &n Trade +ssues@Ihtt)9$$$.forbes.comsitesdou'schoen2016100its-time-for-)resident-obama-to-be'in-le'ac/-sho))in'-on-trade-issues

3ithout Muestion@ President &bamas second term $ill ultimatel/ be dened on ho$ he rallies the American )eo)le to )rotect our nationalsecurit/ interests@ both here at home and o4erseas. The rise of +S+S and other crises in the <iddle 7ast@ ha4e ri'htfull/ demanded the)residents attention and )olitical leadershi) that b/ most accounts has fallen b/ the $a/side. 3hile di)lomatic and securit/ concerns must

al$a/s ta#e )riorit/@ there are other international e#onomi# issues that will ha$e a dire#tand long!lasting impa#t on millions o% Ameri#ans. 4e are #urrentlynegotiating two massi$e trade agreements $ith the Asia-Pacic re'ion and the 7uro)ean nion@

whi#h ha$e the potential to e*pand the global e#onomy @ )ro4idin' Fobs for

American $or#ers and ne$ customers for American businesses. But $e must also deal on a dail/ basis $ith countries li#e +ndia and China $horoutinel/ ;out their trade obli'ations to the detriment of American in4estment@ inno4ation@ and o))ortunities. +ts a lot for one )resident tohandle@ es)eciall/ $hen factorin' domestic economic and )olitical issues that ha4e contributed to President &bamas )o)ularit/ bein' at itslo$est )oint in his t$o terms. "or a soon-to-be lame duc# commander-in-chief@ its time to start thin#in' about the le'ac/ Muestion. Be/ond)olitical in'htin' and a health care la$ that remains a $or# in )ro'ress at best@ ho$ does President &bama $ant to be remembered 4e orten /ears from no$@ and $hat is he 'oin' to do to sha)e that le'ac/ bet$een no$ and ?anuar/ 201*Q "or better or $orse@ the )residentHo$nsI the Patient Protection and Aordable Care Act@ other$ise #no$n as &bamacare. But a)art from his historic election si= /ears a'o@

theres not much more that <r. Obama can sta#e a claim to as far as si'nature accom)lishments. After No4ember@ &bama heads into

the lame-duc# )hase of his )residenc/@ and i% the OP someho$ wins control of the enate @ he will

ha$e to nd a $a/ to work with or around Congress to make progress on hisagenda. 5ranted@ theres not much the )resident can control $hen it comes to $orld e4ents or a hostile Con'ress. "ortunatel/@

there is some low!hanging %ruit that’s ready to be pi#ked on

issues with broad Congressional support. At the be'innin' of his second term@ <r. &bama

announced a rene$ed em)hasis on e=)andin' .S. tradin' )artnershi)s and naliKin' the a'reements that the .S. is currentl/ ne'otiatin'.&ne of those free trade a'reements is the Trans-Pacic Partnershi) TPP@ bet$een the .S. and 11 other countries in the Asia-Pacic re'ion@

includin' Canada and ?a)an. But there are si'nicant barriers that remain before the deal can be naliKed@ includin' lac# of access to the ?a)anese mar#et for .S. a'ricultural )roducts and automobiles@ as $ell as dis)utes o4er intellectual )ro)ert/ ri'hts for )harmaceuticals.

Trade deals li#e TPP and its 7uro)ean counter)art@ the TT+P@ )resent o))ortunities@ but the/ are #ontingentupon the <)) se#uring the best possible out#ome@ and %or that tohappen <r. Obama needs to play a mu#h stronger leadershiprole) 4hile TPP #ould #ertainly be a %eather in the president’s

#ap, a weak deal would set our e#onomy ba#k %or years to #ome .

3hether or not he $ould li#e to admit it@ <r. Obamas inabilit/ to naliKe these deals $ill ine4itabl/ tarnish his le'ac/. +mmediatel/

after this /ears mid-term elections@ he must #apitali9e on the lame du#k Congress

and demand T rade P romotion A uthorit/@ or Hfast-trac#I )o$ers so that he #an #omplete

pending trade agreements and $in a maFor 4ictor/ for his Administration. The TPP@ in )articular@ has

$ast upside potential %or the Ameri#an e#onomy, unlo#king newmarkets that our industries ha$e been shut out o% %or a longtime. Pro4ided mar#et access@ intellectual )ro)ert/ and re'ulator/ trans)arenc/ issues are resol4ed in fa4or of the .S.@ the TPPwill set a new standard %or how trade agreements areapproa#hed in the %uture and pro$ide a solution %or the

ineptitude and impoten#e o% the 4 orld T rade O r'aniKation. +n short@ $hile a stron' TPP

$ould be a ca)stone for the )residents le'ac/@ a weak agreement on a deal of this ma'nitude will se4erel/

hamstrin' the ne=t )resident@ settin' a dangerous pre#edent by lea$ing the <))

1>

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougschoen/2014/10/08/its-time-for-president-obama-to-begin-legacy-shopping-on-trade-issues/







$ulnerable to the whims o% other #ountries that re%use to playby the rules. ltimatel/@ $hether or not <r. &bama succeeds or fails on TPP $ill come do$n to $hether he has the )olitical

ca)ital and the )olitical $ill to secure the stron'est )ossible deal and $or# $ith both )arties in Con'ress on ratication. i$en thedismal outlook %or man/ of his )riorities o4er the ne*t two years@ a renewed

#ommitment to Americas trade a'enda may be one o% the %ew winnable

pie#es that can contribute to his nal le'ac/. All )olitics aside@ the cloc# is tic#in'.

20




Trade ol$es 8otspot @s#alation

Causes global hotspot es#alation!!!trade is key to sol$e<iriam apiro 1;@ isitin' "ello$ in the 5lobal 7conom/ and

De4elo)ment )ro'ram at Broo#in's@ former De)ut/ S TradeRe)resentati4e@ former Director of 7uro)ean Aairs at the NationalSecurit/ Council@ H3h/ Trade <atters@I Se)tember 2016@htt)9$$$.broo#in's.eduYmediaresearchles)a)ers20160>$h/Z20tradeZ20matterstradeZ20'lobalZ204ie$sWnal.)df

This )olic/ brief e=)lores the economic rationale and strate'ic im)erati4e of an ambitious domestic and 'lobal trade a'enda from the )ers)ecti4e of the nited States.+nternational trade is often 4ie$ed throu'h the relati4el/ narro$ )rism of trade-os that mi'ht be made amon' domestic sectors or bet$een tradin' )artners@ but it is

im)ortant to consider also the im)act that increased trade has on 'lobal 'ro$th@ de4elo)ment and securit/. 4ith that conte=t in mind@ this )a)er assesses the

impli#ations o% the Asia!Pa#iG# and @uropean trade negotiationsunderway@ includin' for countries that are not )artici)atin' but as)ire to Foin. +t outlines some of the challen'es that stand in the $a/ of com)letion and

$a/s in $hich the/ can be addressed. +t e=amines $hether the focus on Hme'a-re'ionalI trade a'reements comes at the e=)ense of broader liberaliKation or acts as acatal/st to de4elo) hi'her standards than mi'ht other$ise be )ossible. +t concludes $ith )olic/ recommendations for action b/ 'o4ernments@ le'islators and sta#eholders

to address concerns that ha4e been raised and create 'reater domestic su))ort.X +t is fair to as# $hether $e should be concerned about the future of international trade

)olic/ $hen dire de$elopments are threatening the se#urity interests of the nited States and its )artners

in the <iddle 7ast@ Asia@ Africa and 7uro)e.+n the 2iddle @ast@ si'nicant areas o% +ra5 ha$e beeno$errun b/ a to=ic oshoot of Al-Gaeda@#i$il war in yria rages $ith no end in si'ht@ and the +sraeli!

Palestinian pea#e pro#ess is in tatters ) Nu#lear negotiations with

+ran ha$e run into trouble@ $hile ,ib/a and 7'/)t face continuin' instabilit/ and domestic challen'es.+n Asia@ historic

ri4alries and disputes o$er territory ha4e heightened tensions across the re'ion@ most acutel/ by

China’s a''ressi4e mo$es in the outh C hina ea to$ards ietnam@ ?a)an and the Phili))ines.

Nu#lear!armed North Morea remains isolated@ rec#less and unpredi#table . +n Africa@ countries are

stru''lin' $ith risin' terrorism@ 4iolence and corru)tion. +n 7uro)e@ Russia #ontinues to %oment instability and

destructionin eastern <kraine. And $ithin the 7uro)ean nion@ la''in' economic reco4er/ and the sur'e in su))ort for e=tremist )arties ha4e left )eo)le

fearful of increasin' 4iolence a'ainst immi'rants and minorit/ 'rou)s and s#e)tical of further inte'ration.X +t is tem)tin' to focus solel/ on these )ressin' )roblems anddefer less ur'ent issues!such as for'in' ne$ disci)lines for international trade!to another da/@ es)eciall/ $hen such issues )ose challen'es of their o$n. But that $ould

be a mista#e. A #e/ moti4ation in buildin' 'reater domestic and international consensus for ad$an#ing trade liberali9ation

no$ is )recisel/ the role that 'reater economic inte'ration can )la/ in o)enin' u) ne$ a4enues of o))ortunit/ for )romotin' de4elo)ment and increasin' economic

)ros)erit/. Such initiati4es #an hel) stabili9e key regions and strengthen the se#urity of the

nited States and its )artners.X The last centur/ )ro4ides a )o$erful e=am)le of ho$ e*panding trade relations #an hel)

redu#e global tensions and raise li 4in' standards.Iollowing 4orld 4ar ++@ buildin' stron'er economic

coo)eration $as a center)iece of allied eorts to erase battle scars and embrace former enemies. +n defeat@ the economies of 5erman/@ +tal/ and ?a)an faced ruin and

)eo)le $ere on the 4er'e of star4ation. The nited States led eorts to rebuild 7uro)e and to re)air ?a)ans econom/. A key element of the <arshall

Plan@ $hich established the foundation for un)recedented 'ro$th and the le4el of 7uro)ean inte'ration that e=ists toda/@ was to re$i$e trade

b/ reducin' taris.1 Russia@ and the eastern )art of 7uro)e that it controlled@ refused to )artici)ate or recei4e such assistance. Decades later@ as the Cold 3ar ended@ thenited States and 3estern 7uro)e sou'ht to ma#e u) for lost time b/ )ro4idin' si'nicant technical and nancial assistance to hel) inte'rate central and eastern

7uro)ean countries $ith the rest of 7uro)e and the 'lobal econom/. X There ha4e been subseMuent calls for a H<arshall PlanI for other )arts of the $orld@2 althou'h thecon;uence of dedicated resources@ coordinated su))ort and e=istin' ca)acit/ has been dicult to re)licate. Nonetheless@ im)ortant lessons ha4e been learned about the

4aluable role e#onomi# de$elopment #an )la/ in de%using tensions @ and ho$ o)enin' mar#ets can

hasten 'ro$th. There is a'ain a 'ro$in' reco'nition that economic securit/ and national securit/ are t$o sides of the same coin. 5eneral Carter 8am@ $ho ste))ed do$nas head of .S. Africa Command last /ear@ obser4ed the close connection bet$een increasin' )ros)erit/ and bolsterin' stabilit/. Durin' his time in Africa he had seen thatHsecurit/ and stabilit/ in man/ $a/s de)ends a lot more on economic 'ro$th and o))ortunit/ than it does on militar/ stren'th.I: 3here )eo)le ha4e o))ortunities for

themsel4es and their children@ he found@ the result $as better 'o4ernance@ increased res)ect for human ri'hts and lo$er le4els of con;ict.X Durin' his conrmationhearin' last /ear@ Secretar/ ?ohn err/ stressed the lin# bet$een economic and national securit/ in the conte=t of the com)etiti4eness of the nited States but the )ointalso has broader a))lication. &ur nation cannot be stron' abroad@ he ar'ued@ if it is not stron' at home@ includin' b/ )uttin' its o$n scal house in order. 8e asserted!

ri'htl/ so!that Hmore than e4er forei'n )olic/ is economic )olic/@I )articularl/ in li'ht of increasin' com)etition for 'lobal resources and mar#ets.@$eryday@ he said@ Hthat goes by where Ameri#a is uncertain about en'a'in' in that arena@ or un$illin' to )ut our best foot

for$ard and $in@ unwilling to demonstrate our resol$e to lead @ is a da/ in $hich $e weaken

our nation itself.I6X trengthening Ameri#a’s economic se#urity by #ementing its

e#onomi# allian#es is not sim)l/ an o)tion@ but an imperati$e . A stron' nation needs a stron' econom/ that can 'enerate

'ro$th@ s)ur inno4ation and create Fobs. This is true@ of course@ not onl/ for the nited States but also for its #e/ )artners and the rest of the 'lobal tradin' s/stem. <uchas the nited States led the $a/ in for'in' stron' militar/ alliances after 3orld 3ar ++ to discoura'e a resur'ence of militant nationalism in 7uro)e or Asia@ no$ is the time

21




to )lace eMual em)hasis on shorin' u) our collecti4e economic securit/. A %ailure to a#t no$ #ould undermine international

securit/ and )lace stability in key regions in further Feo)ard/.

22




A No Asia 4ar

4ar probable otherwiseHmultiple triggersurt <. Campbell@ Assistant Secretar/ of State for 7ast Asian and

Pacic Aairs@ Nira4 Patel [ i#ram ?. Sin'h@ HThe Po$er of Balance@ICenter for a Ne$ American Centur/@ (!6L@$$$.cnas.or'lesdocuments)ublicationsCam)bellPatelSin'hWiAsiaW?une0.)df@ accessed *-%-16.

3e call the transformations across the Asia-Pacic the emer'ence ofHiAsiaI to re;ect the ado)tion b/ countries across Asia offundamentall/ ne$ strate'ic a))roaches to their nei'hbors and the$orld. Asian nations are )ursuin' their interests $ith real )o$er in a)eriod of both tremendous )otential and 'reat uncertaint/. iAsia is9+nte'ratin'9 iAsia includes increasin' economic interde)endence and a

;o$erin' of multinational forums to deal $ith trade@ cultural e=chan'e@and@ to some de'ree@ securit/. +nno4atin'9 iAsia boasts the $orldsmost successful manufacturin' and technolo'/ sectors and could startta#in' the lead in e4er/thin' from nance to nanotech to 'reen tech.+n4estin'9 Asian nations are de4elo)in' infrastructure and humanca)ital at un)recedented rates. But the continent remains )la'ued b/9+nsecurit/9 reat!power ri$alry is ali$e in Asia) <assi4e military

in$estments alon' $ith histori# suspi#ions and contem)orar/ territorial and other #on?i#ts make war in Asia plausible. +nstabilit/9 "rom

en$ironmental degradation to $iolent e*tremism to trac#in' in drugs,

)eo)le@ and weapons, Asian nations ha$e mu#h to worry about)+neMualit/9

3ithin nations and bet$een them@ ineMualit/ in Asia is more star# thanan/$here else in the $orld. +m)o4erished minorities in countries li#e+ndia and China@ and the 'a) in 'o4ernance and ca)acit/ $ithincountries@ $hether as bac#$ard as Burma or as ad4anced asSin'a)ore@ )resent uniMue challen'es. A traditional a))roach to Asia$ill not suce if the nited States is to both )rotect American interestsand hel) iAsia realiKe its )otential and a4oid )itfalls. business and theChinese 'o4ernment@ alon' $ith other Asian nancial )la/ers@ inFectedbillions in ca)ital to hel) stead/ .S. in4estment ban#s such as <errill,/nch as the American sub)rime mort'a'e colla)se unfolded. Chinesein4estment funds re'ional industrialiKation@ $hich in turn creates ne$

mar#ets for 'lobal )roducts. Asia no$ accounts for o4er 60 )ercent of'lobal consum)tion of steel 6 and China is consumin' almost half of$orlds a4ailable concrete. % Natural resources from so/ to co))er tooil are bein' used b/ China and +ndia at astonishin' rates@ dri4in' u)commodit/ )rices and settin' o alarm bells in 3ashin'ton and other3estern ca)itals. et Asia is not a theater at )eace. &n a4era'e@bet$een 1% and %0 )eo)le die e4er/ da/ from causes tied to con;ict@and sus)icions rooted in ri4alr/ and nationalism run dee). The #ontinent

2:




harbors e4er/ traditional and non-traditional challen'e of our a'e9 it is

a #auldron o% reli'ious and ethnic tensionV a source of terror and e*trem !

ismS an acceleratin' dri4er of the insatiable 'lobal a))etite for ener'/Vthe )lace $here the most )eo)le $ill suer the ad4erse eects of'lobal climate chan'eV the )rimar/ source of nuclear )roliferationV and

the most likely theater on 7arth %or a ma'or #on$entional #on%rontation ande4en a nu#lear #on?i#t) Coe=istin' $ith the o)timism of iAsia are thein'redients for internal strife@ non-traditional threats li#e terrorism@ andtraditional interstate con;ict@ $hich are all magniGed by the risk o%

mis#al#ulation or )oor decision-ma#in'.

No de%enseHwill go nu#learC. RaFa 2ohan@ distin'uished fello$@ &bser4er Research "oundation@H7mer'in' 5eo)olitical Trends and Securit/ in the Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations@ the Peo)les Re)ublic of China@ and +ndiaAC+ Re'ion@I Asia De4elo)ment Ban# +nstitute Stud/ on the Role of

7mer'in' 7conomies@ n. 612@ :!1"@$$$.iadb.or'intalintalcdiP7201:10*:*.)df @ accessed *-:-16.

Three broad t/)es of con4entional con;ict confront Asia. The rst is the)ros)ect of war between great powers. ntil a risin' PRC 'rabbed theattention of the re'ion@ there had been little fear of 'reat )o$er ri4alr/in the re'ion. The fact that all ma'or powers interested in Asia are armed

with nu#lear weapons@ and the fact that there is 'ro$in' economicinterde)endence bet$een them@ has led man/ to ar'ue that 'reat)o$er con;ict is not li#el/ to occur. @#onomi# interdependen#e@ ashistorians mi'ht sa/ b/ citin' the e=)erience of the "irst 3orld 3ar@ is

not a guarantee %or pea#e in Asia. 7uro)e sa$ 'reat )o$er con;ictdes)ite 'ro$in' interde)endence in the rst half of the 20th centur/.Nuclear $ea)ons are surel/ a lar'er inhibitor of 'reat )o$er $ars. et$e ha4e seen military tensions build u) between the PRC and the < inthe $aters of the 3estern Pacic in recent /ears. The contradictionbet$een the PRCs eorts to limit and constrain the )resence of other)o$ers in its maritime )eri)her/ and the S commitment to maintain a)resence in the 3estern Pacic is real and can onl/ dee)en o4ertime.2> 3e also #no$ from the Cold 3ar that $hile nu#lear weapons didhel) to reduce the im)ulses for a con4entional $ar bet$een 'reat)o$ers@ the/ did not pre$ent geopoliti#al #ompetition. 5reat )o$er

ri4alr/ e=)ressed itself in t$o other forms of con;ict durin' the Cold3ar9 inter-state $ars and intra-state con;ict. +% the out#omes in thesecon;icts are seen as threatening to one or other 'reat power, they are

likely to in?uen#e the out#ome. This can be done either throu'h su))ortfor one of the )arties in the inter-state con;icts or ci4il $ars. 4hen a

great power decides to be#ome directl/ in$ol$ed in a #on?i#t the stakes

are often $ery high. +n the comin' /ears@ it is )ossible to en4isa'econ;icts of all these t/)es in the AC+ re'ion. Asia has barely begun the

26

http://www.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2013/10737.pdf

http://www.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2013/10737.pdf




$or# of #reating an institutional %ramework to resol$e re'ional se#urity

#hallenges. Asia has traditionall/ been a4erse to in4ol4in' the nitedNations N in re'ional securit/ arran'ements. <aFor )o$ers li#e thePRC and +ndia are not interested in HinternationaliKin'I their securit/)roblems!$hether TibetV Tai)ei@ChinaV the South China SeaV or

ashmir!and 'i4e other )o$ers a handle. 74en lesser )o$ers ha4ehad a tradition of reFectin' N interference in their con;icts. Northorea@ for e=am)le@ )refers dealin' $ith the nited States directl/rather than resol4e its nuclear issues throu'h the +nternational Atomic7ner'/ A'enc/ and the N. Since its foundin'@ the in4ol4ement of theN in re'ional securit/ )roblems has been rare and occasional. Theburden of securin' Asia@ then@ falls sMuarel/ on the re'ion itself. Thereare three broad $a/s in $hich a securit/ s/stem in Asia mi'ht e4ol4e9collecti4e securit/@ a concert of maFor )o$ers@ and a balance of )o$ers/stem.:0 Collecti4e securit/ in4ol4es a s/stem $here all stand for oneand each stands for all@ in the e4ent of an a''ression. 3hile collecti4e

securit/ s/stems are the best in a normati4e sense@ achie4in' them inthe real $orld has al$a/s been dicult. A more achie4able 'oal isHcoo)erati4e securit/I that see#s to de4elo) mechanisms for reducin'mutual sus)icion@ buildin' condence@ )romotin' trans)arenc/@ andmiti'atin' if not resol4in' the sources of con;ict. The AR" and 7AS$ere lar'el/ concei4ed $ithin this frame$or#@ but the former hasdisa))ointed $hile the latter has /et to demonstrate its full )otential.A second@ Muite dierent@ a))roach em)hasiKes the im)ortance of)o$er@ es)eciall/ militar/ )o$er@ to deter ones ad4ersaries and thebuildin' of counter4ailin' coalitions a'ainst a threatenin' state. A

balan#e o% power s/stem@ as man/ critics of the idea )oint out@ promotes

arms ra#es, is inherently unstable, and breaks down %re5uently leading tosystemi# wars. There is 'ro$in' concern in Asia that amidst the rise ofChinese militar/ )o$er and the )erce)tion of American decline@ man/lar'e and small states are ste))in' u) their e=)enditure on acMuirin'ad4anced $ea)ons s/stems. Some anal/sts see this as a structuralcondition of the ne$ Asia that must be addressed throu'h deliberatedi)lomatic action. :1 A third a))roach in4ol4es coo)eration amon' the'reat )o$ers to act in concert to enforce a broad set of norms!fallin'in bet$een the idealistic notions of collecti4e securit/ and the ata4isticforms of balance of )o$er. 8o$e4er@ actin' in concert in4ol4es aminimum le4el of understandin' bet$een the maFor )o$ers. The

'reatest e=am)le of a concert is the one formed b/ maFor 7uro)ean)o$ers in the earl/ 1th centur/ throu'h the Con'ress of ienna afterthe defeat of Na)oleonic "rance. The )roblem of ada)tin' such as/stem to Asia is the fact that there are man/ medium-siKed )o$ers$ho $ould resent an/ attem)t b/ a fe$ 'reat )o$ers to im)ose orderin the re'ion.:2 +n the end@ the s/stem that emer'es in Asia is li#el/ toha4e elements of all the three models. +n the interim@ thou'h@ there are

2%




substanti4e dis)utes on the 'eo'ra)hic sco)e and the normati4e basisfor a future securit/ order in Asia.

2(




TPA Mey to TPP

3a#k o% TPA killing TPP

Reuters, 16!J@ 16htt)9$$$.'lobal)ost.comdis)atchne$sthomson-reuters16102>us-business-calls-)ush-fast-trac#-trade-authorit/

The TPP is a 12-nation trade deal co4erin' 60 )ercent of the $orldeconom/@ $hich see#s to set common standards in areas li#e labor andintellectual )ro)ert/ as $ell as brea# do$n trade barriers. Tradee*perts say the la#k o% TPA is one o% the hurdles in Gnali9ingthe TPP, as trade partners #ould be unwilling to put up theirbest o&ers i% Congress later seeks to #hange terms o% the deal

TPA #riti#al to TPP

2oney News, 16!J@ 16@htt)9$$$.mone/ne$s.com7conom/Businesses-"ast-trac#-Trade-Authorit/2016102>id(0600%Trade experts say the lack of a trade promotion authority is one of the hurdles in finalizing the TPP,

since trade partners may fear Congress would later seek to amend the deal. In an article in Foreign Policy

Magazine earlier this month, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said TPA would give "U.S.

trading partners the necessary confidence to put their best and final offers on the table."

2*




TPP Criti#al to Resol$e Asian Power Con?i#ts

That’s e! t" da#$en %sian $"&er c"#$etiti"n

Scott 2iller@ Scholl Chair in +nternational Business at the Center for

Strate'ic and +nternational Studies@ Paul Nadeau@ )ro'ram mana'erand research associate $ith the Scholl Chair at CS+S@ 1:11;@ TPP +s<ore than a Trade A'reement@ csis.or')ublicationt))-more-trade-a'reement

The 4hite 8ouse needs TPA because the TPP is the H)i4ot to Asia.I The

military realignment is im)ortant@ but the repositioning is mostl/ relati4e@ dri$enby drawdowns in +raM and Af'hanistan. The Pi4ot is a )olitical and economicreali'nment that aims to im)ro4e coo)eration and inte'ration amon' thenited States and 7ast Asia. Then-secretar/ of state 8illar/ Clinton said this e=)licitl/ in her "orei'n

Polic/ article@ HAmericas Pacic Centur/@I $hen she $rote =O>pen markets in Asia

pro$ide the <nited tates with unpre#edented opportunities %orin$estment, trade, and a##ess to #utting!edge te#hnology. &ur

economic reco4er/ at home $ill de)end on e=)orts and the ability o%Ameri#an Grms to tap into the $ast and growing #onsumer base o%Asia.I 2ilitary presen#e was only one out o% the si* #ourses o% a#tion

that Secretar/ Clinton used to dene the Asia Pi4ot@ $hile the TPP is ar'uabl/ the key

ingredient of three deepening Ameri#a-s relationships with rising

powers, in#luding ChinaS engaging $ith re'ional multilateral institutionsV

e*panding trade and in4estment. +f sol4in' the nancial crisis and )assin' health care reform

$ere President &bamas #e/ domestic )olic/ 4ictories@ then the Asia Pi4ot is )rimed to be the area $herehe beneciall/ chan'es the course of .S. forei'n )olic/ the discussions $ith +ran are still too nascent todetermine ho$ far reachin' the/ $ill become.

Toda/@ there are tensions among Asia’s large powers @ and the nited States is

li#el/ the sin'le entit/ that can in;uence the situation. The <nited tates andAsia need ea#h other and TPP is the $ehi#le that #an %un#tionally,e#onomi#ally, and politi#ally help bind them together . The <embers of

Congress and sta that ha4e drafted the TPA bill ha$e put admirable e&ort intolegislation. Trade negotiators $or#in' on TPP ha$e been eMuall/ tireless. :utTPP@ and Asia, #annot wait %ore$er. <an/ in Asia are alread/ concerned that the Pi4ot

$as onl/ su)ercial and that nited States is alread/ mo4in' on. +% TPA and TPP remain%ramed as a trade issue, with all of the politi#al baggage that comes $ith that@

the Administration risks putting TPP on i#e for 2016.

Alternati4el/@ the Administration #an in?uen#e per#eptions by %raming theTPP as a strategi# goal that will be the #ornerstone o% the Asia Pi$ot.

This would reassure <)) partners in Asia and ans$er domestic critics who

argue that the Pi$ot la#ks substan#e. <oreo4er@ it $ould 'i4e the President anachie4able 'oal in ad4ance of his A)ril tri) to Asia.

%sia $"&er c"#$etiti"n is the #"st 'ie'! scenari" f"r nuc'ear &ar Campbell et al L urt <@ Assistant Secretar/ of State for 7ast Asian and Pacic Aairs@ Dr.

Cam)bell ser4ed in se4eral ca)acities in 'o4ernment@ includin' as De)ut/ Assistant Secretar/ ofDefense for Asia and the Pacic@ Director on theNational Securit/ Council Sta@ )re4iousl/ the Chief

2




7=ecuti4e &cer and co-founder of the Center for a Ne$ American Securit/ CNAS@ ser4ed as Director ofthe As)en Strate'/ 5rou) and the Chairman of the 7ditorial Board of the 3ashin'ton Guarterl/@ and $asthe founder and Princi)al of StratAsia@ a strate'ic ad4isor/ com)an/ focused on Asia@ rior to co-foundin'CNAS@ he ser4ed as Senior ice President@ Director of the +nternational Securit/ Pro'ram@ and the 8enr/ A.issin'er Chair in National Securit/ Polic/ at the Center for Strate'ic and +nternational Studies@ doctorate in+nternational Relation Theor/ from &=ford@ former associate )rofessor of )ublic )olic/ and internationalrelations at the ?ohn ". enned/ School of 5o4ernment and Assistant Director of the Center for Science and+nternational Aairs at 8ar4ard ni4ersit/@ member of Council on "orei'n Relations and +nternational

+nstitute for Strate'ic Studies@ HThe Po$er of Balance9 America in iAsiaI ?une 200@htt)9$$$.cnas.or'lesdocuments)ublicationsCam)bellPatelSin'hWiAsiaW?une0.)df

Asian investment is also at record le4els. Asian countries lead the$orld $ith un)recedented infrastructure )roFects. 3ith o4er L: trillionin forei'n currenc/ reser4es@ Asian nations and businesses are startin'to sha)e 'lobal economic acti4it/. +ndian rms are )urchasin'industrial 'iants such as Arcelor Steel@ as $ell as iconic brands of itsonce-colonial ruler@ such as ?a'uar and Ran'e Ro4er. Chinas ,eno4obou'ht +B<s )ersonal com)uter

3e call the transformations across the Asia-Pacic the emer'ence ofHiAsiaI to re;ect the ado)tion b/ countries across Asia offundamentall/ ne$ strate'ic a))roaches to their nei'hbors and the$orld. Asian nations are pursuing their interests with real power in a

period o% both tremendous potential and 'reat un#ertainty. iAsia is9Integrating: iAsia includes increasin' economic interde)endence and a;o$erin' of multinational forums to deal $ith trade@ cultural e=chan'e@and@ to some de'ree@ securit/. Innovating: iAsia boasts the $orldsmost successful manufacturin' and technolo'/ sectors and could startta#in' the lead in e4er/thin' from nance to nanotech to 'reen tech.Investing: Asian nations are de4elo)in' infrastructure and human

ca)ital at un)recedented rates. But the #ontinent remains plaguedby +nse#urity reat!power ri$alry is ali$e in Asia) 2assi$e militaryin$estments along with histori# suspi#ions and #ontemporary

territorial and other #on?i#ts make war in Asia plausible. +nstabilit/9Irom en$ironmental degradation to $iolent e*tremism to traQ#kingin drugs, people, and weapons, Asian nations ha$e mu#h to worry

about) Inequality: 3ithin nations and bet$een them@ ine5uality in Asiais more stark than anywhere else in the world) +mpo$erishedminorities in #ountries like +ndia and China, and the gap in

go$ernan#e and #apa#ity within #ountries@ $hether as bac#$ard asBurma or as ad4anced as Sin'a)ore@ present uni5ue #hallenges. Atraditional a))roach to Asia $ill not suce if the nited States is toboth )rotect American interests and hel) iAsia realiKe its )otential anda4oid )itfalls. business and the Chinese 'o4ernment@ alon' $ith otherAsian nancial )la/ers@ inFected billions in ca)ital to hel) stead/ .S.in4estment ban#s such as <errill ,/nch as the American sub)rimemort'a'e colla)se unfolded. Chinese in4estment funds re'ionalindustrialiKation@ $hich in turn creates ne$ mar#ets for 'lobal)roducts. Asia no$ accounts for o4er 60 )ercent of 'lobal consum)tion

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of steel 6 and China is consumin' almost half of $orlds a4ailableconcrete. % Natural resources from so/ to co))er to oil are bein' usedb/ China and +ndia at astonishin' rates@ dri4in' u) commodit/ )ricesand settin' o alarm bells in 3ashin'ton and other 3estern ca)itals. et Asia is not a theater at pea#e) &n a4era'e@ bet$een 17 and 76

people die e$ery day %rom #auses tied to #on?i#t, and suspi#ionsrooted in ri$alry and nationalism run deep) The #ontinent harborse$ery traditional and non!traditional #hallenge o% our age it is a#auldron o% religious and ethni# tensionS a sour#e o% terror ande*trem ismS an a##elerating dri$er o% the insatiable global appetite%or energyS the pla#e where the most people will su&er the ad$ersee&e#ts o% global #limate #hangeS the primary sour#e o% nu#lear

proli%erationS and the most likely theater on @arth %or a maFor

con4entional confrontation and e4en a nuclear con;ict) Coe=istin' $ith theo)timism of iAsia are the in'redients for internal stri%e, non!traditional threats like terrorism, and traditional interstate #on?i#t,

whi#h are all magniGed by the risk o% mis#al#ulation or poor

de#ision!making .

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TPP Russia #enario

T(( S"'ves )ussia aggressi"n

Ste)hen De2aura@ 6%1;@ Time to Counter Russia $ith Trade

7=)ansion@to$nhall.comcolumnistsste)hendemaura2016060%time-to-counter-russia-$ith-trade-e=)ansion-n11>6()a'efull

President Obama returned %rom a ma'or o$erseas trip last $ee# $here he met $ith

man/ of our 7uro)ean nion 7 allies at a moment when Russia #ontinues to ?e*its mus#le in the region@ recentl/ sendin' Prime <inister Dmitr/ <ed4ede4 on a hi'h-)role

4isit to the ne$l/-anne=ed territor/ in Crimea. +ts clear that the need for seamlesscoo)eration bet$een the S and the 7uro)e nion is )aramount . And there’sno better way to shore up the transatlanti# allian#e than bystrengthening our e#onomi# ties. Alread/@ trade bet$een the nited States and the 7accounts for more than :0 )ercent of trade around the $orld and 'enerates nearl/ L: billion e4er/ da/. An

a'reement currentl/ under ne'otiation bet$een the S and the 7 – the Transatlantic Trade and+n4estment Partnershi) TT+P – $ould remo4e e4en more trade barriers and foster closer trade tiesbet$een the t$o continents. The President reiterated his su))ort for this a'reement in Brussels last $ee#Vunfortunatel/@ he has /et to )ublicl/ stand u) to some of his bi''est )olitical allies $ho are $or#in' to hold

u) TT+P here at home. +n order to get TT+P and other pending tradeagreements mo$ing, the President must be granted Trade Promotion Authorit/

TPA b/ an act of Con'ress. TPA has been 'ranted to e4er/ )resident since the 1>:0s@ until it e=)ired in200*. Con'ress no$ has a uniMue o))ortunit/ no$ to )ass a retooled TPA for the 21st Centur/@ andbrin'in' the 7 and S closer to counter Russian e=)ansionism onl/ ma#es that aim more im)ortant.Democrats in Con'ress are some of the most 4ocal 4oices in o))osition to TPA and trade e=)ansion in'eneral. Senate <aForit/ ,eader 8arr/ Reid said earlier this /ear that He4er/one $ould be $ell-ad4ised notto )ush this ri'ht no$.I 8ouse Democratic ,eader Nanc/ Pelosi $ent e4en further@ callin' )endin' TPAle'islation Hout of the Muestion.I 3h/ $ould Con'ressional Democrats see# to slo$-trac# or shoot do$nle'islation that $ould increase trade $ith some of our closest allies and create ne$ FobsQ &ne reason is thestron'-arm tactics of Bi' ,abor. nion bosses belie4e their )osition $ill be $ea#ened b/ e=)anded

international trade and the/ are holdin' Democratic )olit icians beholden to their $ishes. ?ust recentl/@American "ederation of ,abor and Con'ress of +ndustrial &r'aniKations A",-C+& President Richard Trum#acriticiKed )endin' trade a'reements $ith the 7 and Asia in a s)eech at the left-leanin' Center forAmerican Pro'ress CAP@ darin' to claim that TPA Hhas failed to e4ol4e $ith our com)le= and d/namic'lobal econom/.I +n fact@ the bi)artisan TPA le'islation currentl/ before Con'ress aims to brin' our trade

)olicies into the 21stCentur/ and its Bi' ,abors archaic )rotectionism that belon's to the )ast. 4e#annot allow petty politi#s to sabotage a #ru#ial geopoliti#almoment) 4e need to send an une5ui$o#al message to ladimir Putinand the Russian oligar#hs that the <nited tates and the @uropean <nionare more #ommitted than e$er to our transatlanti# allian#e. "osterin'closer trade ties a clear )ath to doin' Fust that@ as $ell as stimulatin' our econom/ andcreatin' ne$ and better Fobs alon' the $a/. +ts time for Democrats in Con'ress to see be/ond their ne=t

election and stand u) to Bi' ,abor bosses. Passin' TPA means more American Fobs@ solidif/in'our )osition as the $orlds trade leader and sends a 4er/ im)ortant messa'e

to the Russians@ $hich are 'oals $e can all 'et behind.

)ussian aggressi"n causes nuc'ear &ar

:lank J – Dr. Ste)hen Blan# is a Research Professor of NationalSecurit/ Aairs at the Strate'ic Studies +nstitute of the .S. Arm/ 3arColle'e@ <arch 200>@ HRussia And Arms Control9 Are There&))ortunities "or The &bama AdministrationQIhtt)9$$$.strate'icstudiesinstitute.arm/.mil)dles)ub>0.)df

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Proliferators or nuclear states li#e China and Russia can then deterre'ional or intercontinental attac#s either b/ denial or b/ threat of

retaliation.1( 5i4en a multi)olar $orld structure with little

ideologi#al ri$alry among ma'or powers @ it is unlikely that they will

go to war with ea#h other . Rather@ li#e Russia @ the/ will stri$e %or

e*#lusi$e hegemony in their own sphere o% in?uen#eF and use

nu#lear instruments towards that end . 8o$e4er@ wars may well

break out between major powers and weaker “peripheral” states or bet$een

)eri)heral and semi)eri)heral states 'i4en their lac# of domesticle'itimac/@ the absence of the means of crisis )re4ention@ the 4isibleabsence of crisis mana'ement mechanisms@ and their strate'iccalculation that as/mmetric $ars mi'ht 'i4e them the 4ictor/ orres)ite the/ need.1(> Simultaneousl/@X The states of )eri)her/ andsemi)eri)her/ ha4e far more o))ortunities for )olitical maneu4erin'.Since war remains a political option, these states may find it convenient to exercise their military

power as a means for achieving political objectives. Thus international #rises may

in#rease in number . This has t$o important impli#ations %or the use o%

42D ) "irst@ they may be used deliberately to o&er a de#isi$e $i#tory (or

in Russia’s #ase , to achieve “intra-war escalation controlI!author1*0 to the

stri#er@ or for defensive prposes when imbalances in military capabilities are significantV

and second@ #rises in#rease the possibilities o% inad$ertent or

a##idental wars in$ol$ing 42D .1*1X &b4iousl/ nuclear )roliferators

or states that are expanding their nclear arsenals like !ssia can exercise a great inflence pon

world politics if they chose to defy the prevailing consenss and se their weapons not as

defensi4e $ea)ons@ as has been commonl/ thou'ht@ but as offensiveweapons to threaten other states and deter nuclear )o$ers. Their decision to 'oeither for coo)erati4e securit/ and stren'thened international militar/-)olitical norms of action@ or for indi4idual national He'otismI $illcriticall/ aect $orld )olitics. "or@ as Roberts obser4es@X But if the/ drifta$a/ from those eorts to brin' about more coo)erati4e securit/O@

the #onse5uen#es #ould be pro%ound . At the 4er/ least@ the e&e#ti$e

%un#tioning o% inherited me#hanisms o% world order , su#h as the

s)ecial responsibility o% the Hgreat powersF in the management o%

the interstate system@ es)eciall/ )roblems of armed a''ression@ underthe ae'is of #olle#ti$e se#urity, #ould be signiG#antly impaired .

Armed $ith the abilit/ to defeat an inter4ention@ or im)ose substantialcosts in blood or mone/ on an inter4enin' force or the )o)ulaces of thenations marshalin' that force@ the newly empowered tier cold bring an end to

#olle#ti$e se#urity operations @ undermine the #redibility o% allian#e

#ommitments by the great powers @ undermine 'uarantees of

e=tended deterrence b/ them to threatened nations and statesO extend

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alliances of their own@ and )erha)s make wars o% aggression on their

neighbors or their own people .1*2

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TPP ol$es 2e*i#o Relations

T(( s"'ves *exic" ec"n"#ic sta+i'it! and US-*exic" $artnershi$

Alberto @senaro@ <e=ican ,a$ Blo'@ 6211;@ 3hat 3ould the Trans-

Pacic Partnershi) TPP <ean for <e=icoQ@ me=icanla$blo'.com$hat-$ould-the-trans-)acic-)artnershi)-t))-mean-for-me=ico

+n 2012@ the nine countries com)risin' the Trans-Pacic Partnershi) TPP embra#ed 2e*i#o asa tenth member before Canada and ?a)an. .S. ocials commented that all members – nited States@Australia@ Ne$ \ealand@ Peru@ Chile@ Sin'a)ore@ <ala/sia@ ietnam and Brunei – Fointl/ acce)ted <e=icos

a))lication. The a##eptan#e o% 2e*i#o within the TPP was one of the biga#hie$ements o% former President "eli)e Calderon durin' his si=-/ear )residential term. As a

member of the TPP@ 2e*i#o now has a role in the global supply #hains %orboth the <)) and Asia Pa#iG# markets. Calderon said@ HThis is one of the free tradeinitiati4es thats most ambitious in the $orld and $ould foster inte'ration of the Asia Pacic re'ion@ one of

the re'ions $ith the 'reatest d/namism in the $orld.I +n addition@ 2e*i#o will get the#han#e to di$ersity its e*ports. 3ithin a /ear from bein' acce)ted into the TPP@ the

countr/s maFor e=)orts $ere electronics :Z@ cars and auto )arts 1*Z@ and oil 12Z. This is a lon'$a/ from the lo$ 4alue maMuila o)erations <e=ico rst started $ith. B/ oerin' lo$er )roduction costs

and chea)er e=)erienced labor@ 2e*i#o has 5ui#kly grown into an e*port hub that

com)etes $ith the li#es of China. As a result of these outcomes and the strate'ies im)lemented b/

the current <e=ican President 7nriMue Pe]a Nieto@ 2e*i#o’s e#onomy grew. The <e=ican<inistr/ of "inance estimates that the econom/ 're$ b/ 0. )ercent in the fourth Muarter and reached 1.:)ercent in 201:. This $as the result of the increase in demand for <e=ican 'oods as $ell as the reforms

President Pe]a Nieto made to o)en the oil industr/ to )ri4ate and forei'n in4estors. 4ith astronger e#onomy, 2e*i#o e=)ects its higher 'ob retention rates@ risingli$ing standards@ and a lower per#entage o% po$erty) A third ad4anta'e of Foinin'

the TPP is strengthening the #ountry’s relationship with its neighbourin the north. Though 2e*i#o has alread/ partnered with the .S. in the North

American "ree Trade A'reement NAITA@ it was the <)) that in$ited the 3atin

Ameri#an #ountry to 'oin the negotiations o% the TPP) .S. TradeRe)resentati4e Ron ir# released a statement after .S. President Barac# &bama and President Calderonmet at the 5rou) of 20 summit announcin' the ne$s.I H3e are deli'hted to in4ite <e=ico@ our nei'hbourand second lar'est e=)ort mar#et@ to Foin the TPP ne'otiations. <e=icos interest in the TPP re;ects itsreco'nition that the TPP )resents the most )romisin' )ath$a/ to boostin' trade across the Asia Pacic andto encoura'in' re'ional trade inte'ration. 3e loo# for$ard to continuin' consultations $ith the Con'ress

and domestic sta#eholders as $e mo4e for$ard.I This $as )art of a broader .S. strate'/to lin# its econom/ to fast 'ro$in' mar#ets . "or <e=ico@ this $ould allo$ the countr/ tostrengthen its synergies and deepen the natural integrations o% itse*ports in the <)) market) Prior to Foinin' the Trans-Pacic Partnershi)@ <e=icos total trade$ith the nine TPP countries had reached L6(( billion in 2011. <ean$hile@ the countr/s e=)orts to the .S.$ere L20 billion. "rom "ebruar/ 1* to 2%@ 2016@ Commerce <inisters and Chief Ne'otiators met at

Sin'a)ore for an additional round of ne'otiation. +% 2e*i#o su##eeds on thosenegotiations and deep re%orms, it will be#ome an international tradeand in$estment plat%orm.

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A Trade 8urts the @n$ironment

New trade deals #ome with en$ironmental and laborprote#tions

3isconsin Re'ister@ 12--16@ H7ditorial9 5i4e &bama "ast Trac# on TradeIhtt)9$$$.$iscne$s.com)orta'edail/re'isterne$so)inioneditorialarticleW1a6:a6:6-d(bc-%%2f-b%a6->*e*ca2fe2>.html D&A9 12-10-16

Ameri#a needs one person ! not %:% members of Con'ress !negotiating big trade deals with @urope and a do9en Pa#iG#nations.Congress should gi$e Democratic President Barac# Obama the%ast!tra#k authorit/ his administration needs to 'et these im)ortant

a'reements done.Con'ress $ould still 'et a nal 4ote on an/thin' &bama and his tradin')artners come u) $ith. But Con'ress $ouldnt be allo$ed to amendtrade deals to death@ a )ros)ect that discoura'es other nations fromma#in' their best oers."ast-trac# authorit/@ 'ranted b/ Con'ress@ $ould allo$ the &bamaadministration to ne'otiate $ith condence. The Obamaadministration is pursuing a Trans!Pa#iG# Partnership withsu#h nations as 0apan, Uietnam and :runei) Obama also hopesto seal a deal with the @uro)ean <nion.Iree!trade 9ones a#ross the Atlanti# and Pa#iG# o#eans would

lower tari&s and smooth #ommer#e %or all while en#ouraginghigher en$ironmental and labor standards)Protectionists ho)e to unra4el the a'reements. The/ fear American Fobs could be lost.But free trade@ $hile disru)ti4e@ has lifted )ros)erit/ for our state andnation. As .S. Re). Ron ind@ a Democrat from ,a Crosse@ notes9 Thenited States is runnin' a trade sur)lus in manufacturin'@ a'ricultureand ser4ices $ith the 20 countries it has bilateral a'reements $ith.inds Ne$ Democrat Coalition $ill be a #e/ force for 'ettin' dealsdone. nfortunatel/@ the e=tremes of both )olitical )arties ! the)ro'ressi4es on the left@ and the tea )art/ on the ri'ht ! fear the

realities of 'lobal com)etition.3isconsin and America cant aord to sit on the sidelines of emer'in'mar#ets. The bi' )artnershi)s $ith 7uro)ean@ Asian and Paciccountries $ould encom)ass *0 )ercent of the 'lobal mar#et)lace. +fAmerica doesnt lead on the issue@ China surel/ $ill.&bama last $ee# made the stron' case for e=)andin' trade at theBusiness Roundtable in 3ashin'ton@ D.C. Those com)anies that could

:%

http://www.wiscnews.com/portagedailyregister/news/opinion/editorial/article_1a43a434-d6bc-552f-b5a4-978e7ca2fe29.html







benet b/ mo4in' Fobs and factories o4erseas ha4e alread/ done so@&bama said.HDont 'ht the last $ar@I the )resident told fello$ Democrats. HThose$ho o))ose these trade deals@ ironicall/@ are acce)tin' a status Muothat is more dama'in' to American $or#ers.I

8es ri'ht.3isconsin $ill be able to sell more a'ricultural and dair/ )roducts in)laces such as ?a)an if trade barriers are lo$ered. 3isconsinmanufacturers and technolo'/ com)anies $ill be able to nd morecustomers for their eMui)ment and inno4ations. That $ill mean more Fobs here at home@ des)ite more com)etition fromabroad.HRight now,F Obama said, there are no labor rights inUietnam) + don’t know how it’s good %or labor %or us to tank adeal that would re5uire Uietnam to impro$e its laws aroundlabor organi9ation and sa%ety)F

On the en$ironmental %ront, + ha$en’t looked #are%ully at theen$ironmental laws in 2alaysia re#ently, but + suspe#t they’renot as strong as they are here@I &bama said. H+t’s not a badthing %or us to nudge them in a better dire#tion)FAutomation has im)acted American Fobs more than oshorin'@ &bamasaid.HSo + thin# that there are fol#s in m/ o$n )art/ and in m/ o$nconstituenc/ that ha4e le'itimate com)laints about some of the trendlines of ineMualit/@ but are bar#in' u) the $ron' tree $hen it comes too))osin'I trade deals.Con'ress should 'i4e the )resident the ;e=ibilit/ he needs.

:(




China!< Relations ol$e tability

Relations are key to a genuine #ooperati$e strategy,sol$es global pea#e and stability

:endsten, enior Politi#al Analyst %or the 3antern, 1"Daniel@ &ctober 2th@ Hnited States-China relations U#e/ to )eace andstabilit/I@ htt)9thelantern.com201:10us-china-relations-#e/-)eace-stabilit/@ accessed *16@ ,,<As the relationship between China and the <)) e$ol$es, howthe two will work together on a global s#ale is be#omingin#reasingly important) HAs $e loo# to the future, the key5uestion is VCan the <)) and China work together to sol$e theworld’s important #hallenges des)ite dierent economic s/stemsand di4er'ent 4ie$s on such matters as democrac/@ reli'ious freedom@ci4il liberties and the rule of la$QI former Secretar/ of State <adeleine

Albri'ht said durin' an e4ent about the .S.-China relationshi) <onda/.H+n m/ 4ie$@ this is #ertainly possible, so long as we re#ogni9eour disagreements and #ore di&eren#es with maturity,#on%ront our #hallenges dire#tly, and ha$e leaders on bothsides that are #ommitted to this relationship)F The se4enthannual China To$n 8all@ durin' $hich &hio State and (% other 4enueshosted local s)ea#ers <onda/ in a t$o-hour e4ent@ featured a $ebcastdiscussion on the subFect of .S.-China relations bet$een Albri'ht in3ashin'ton@ D.C.@ and Ste)hen &rlins@ )resident of the NationalCommittee on .S.-China Relations. <))!China relations are thedeGning relationship o% the 1st #entury, and getting that

relationship right is the key to pea#e and stability throughoutthe world,F Orlins said)

Relations are key to global stability! international systemare unsustainable and ine$itably going to #ollapse in thetatus uoiaoyu, Analyst %or the China +nstitute o% +nternationaltudies, 61;,+@ ?anuar/ 1:th@ HChina-S Coo)eration9 e/ to the 5lobal "utureIhtt)9$$$.ciis.or'.cnen'lish2016-011:contentW((0((%(.htm@accessed *216@ ,,<

The global %uture is likely to be in#reasingly $olatile andun#ertain) The rate o% #hange is in#reasing@ dri4en b/ the acceleratin' )ace

of te#hnologi#al de$elopment@ un)recedented urbani9ation and growth o% the global middle #lass, and a wide range o% #hallenges

beyond the #ontrol o% any one #ountry but potentially a&e#ting

the prosperity and se#urity o% all #ountries) Disru)ti4e chan'e in one

'eo'ra)hic or functional area $ill s)read Muic#l/.. No #ountry, and #ertainly not

:*

http://thelantern.com/2013/10/us-china-relations-key-peace-stability/


http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-01/13/content_6606656.htm



http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-01/13/content_6606656.htm




those with the largest populations and largest e#onomies, willbe immune) 5lobal challen'es li#e #limate #hange, %ood and watershortages, and resour#e s#ar#ities will shape the strategi##onte*t %or all nations and reMuire reconsideration of traditional national concerns such as

so4erei'nt/ and ma*imi9ing the ability o% national leaders to #ontrol

their #ountry’s destiny) 4hat China and the <nited tates do,indi$idually and together , will ha$e a ma'or impa#t on the

%uture o% the global system . As importantly, our indi$idual

%ates will be ine*tri#ably linked to how that %uture plays out. The

three illustrati4e scenarios s#etched out belo$ underscore ho$ critical the future of the S-Chinarelationshi) is to each countr/ and to the $orld. ^ 5lobal Drift and 7rosion the )resent $orld traFector/9

+n a world in whi#h nations %ail to resol$e global problems andstrengthen me#hanisms o% global #ooperation, go$ernmentsgradually turn inward. @a#h nation seeks to prote#t and ad$an#eits own narrow national interests or to preser$e anunsustainable status 5uo that is rapidly #hanging in ways that

erode the international order. The international communit/s la#k o% ability

to #ooperate to meet global #hallenges leads to international

#rises and instability) ^ \ero-Sum 3orld9 nsustainable drift leads to a $orld of

)redominantl/ 9ero!sum #ompetition and con;ict in the %a#e o% se$ereresour#e constraints. The result is e#onomi# #rises and internalinstability as well as interstate #on%rontation) There is risk o%military #on?i#t between ma'or powers, whi#h in#reases globalmistrust and un#ertainty and %osters an ea#h nation %oritsel%F mentality that %urther undermines the ability of states to#ooperate in the %a#e o% growing #ommon #hallenges. ^ lobal

Re$itali9ation and Cooperation9 To esca)e the )erils of drift or Kero-sum com)etition@

leaders in countries $ith the most to lose $or# to'ether to mana'e and ta#e ad4anta'e of 'lobal

challen'es and me'atrends. Cooperation makes it possible to a#hie$e win!win out#omes that a$oid or mitigate negati$e #onse5uen#es o%in#reased demand %or resour#es and the impa#t o% #limate#hange as well as to harness new te#hnologies to impro$eli$ing #onditions through sustainable de$elopment.

Cooperation #reates and utiliKes ne$ transnational institutions topre$ent #on?i#t and enhan#e se#urity for all. China and the <nitedtates be#ome more prosperous as we work together) The )ossible

futures s#etched out abo4e and de4elo)ed at 'reater len'th belo$ are intended to stimulate thin#in'about ho$ current trends and uncertainties could lead to 4er/ dierent 'lobal and national outcomes. "or

man/ reasons@ the <nited tates and China will ha$e greater abilityand in#enti$es than other #ountries to #ooperate in determinin' and

sha)in' de4elo)ments o4er the ne=t t$o decades. +ndeed@ it is $ery diQ#ult to imagine

a pathway to global re$itali9ation and #ooperationF in whi#h

China and the <nited tates do not #ooperate and pro$ide

#riti#al international leadership) 2any %a#tors will shape the

%uture@ some of $hich are be/ond the control of an/ nation state@ but China and the

:




about +ran, plus 0apanese and outh Morean #on#erns aboutes#alation ha$e also helped persuade the 4hite 8ouse thatChina-s insisten#e on engagement, rather than #on%rontation,may best ser$e its interests) The S esche$ed bilateral contactsafter the 2002 ru)ture that led North orea to Muit the nuclear non-

)roliferation treat/. No$ its chief ne'otiator@ Christo)her 8ill@hailin' thedeal as a turnin' )oint@ ma/ 4isit P/on'/an') The #ontradi#tionsbetween this new < approa#h and its poli#y towards +ran maybe#ome in#reasingly diQ#ult to 'usti%y internationally. <ohamed7lBaradei@ the N nuclear a'enc/ chief@ made the com)arison this$ee# $hile $arnin' a'ainst American and +ranian brin#manshi).+ranian oQ#ials say pri$ately that 4ashington-s re%usal to meetbilaterally, indire#t threats o% military #oer#ion, and e#onomi#san#tions all hinder progress on the nu#lear issue. BeiFin' seemsto a'ree. 3ith its N 4eto in its )oc#et@ it has o))osed )uniti4emeasures a'ainst +ran@ an im)ortant oil and 'as e=)orter@ $hile

insistin' en'a'ement is the best )ath for$ard. +roni#ally, it may beChina, 4ashington-s new!%ound (strategi# partner( in the

east, whi#h also holds the key to the west-s +ranian impasse .

<!ino Relations ol$e +ran Proli% Man, pe#ialist in Asian e#urity A&airs, 1; Shirle/ A.@ ?anuar/ :@ Con'ressional Research Ser4ice@ HChina andProliferation of 3ea)ons of <ass Destruction and <issiles9 Polic/+ssues@I htt)9fas.or's')crsnu#eR,:1%%%.)df @ accessed ?ul/ @

2016@ 7O

Congress has long been #on#erned about whether <)) poli#yad$an#es the national interest in redu#ing the role o% thePeople’s Republi# o% China .PRC/ in the proli%eration o%weapons o% mass destru#tion .42D/ and missiles that #oulddeli$er them. Reci)ients of Chinas technolo'/ re)ortedl/ includedPa#istan@ North orea@ and +ran. This CRS Re)ort@ u)dated aswarranted, dis#usses the se#urity problem o% China’s role inweapons proli%eration and issues related to the <)) poli#yresponse since the mid-1>>0s. China has taken some steps to

molli%y <)) and other %oreign #on#erns about its role inweapons proli%eration. Nonetheless@ su))lies from China ha4ea''ra4ated trends that result in ambi'uous technical aid@ moreindi'enous ca)abilities@ lon'er-ran'e missiles@ and secondar/retransferred )roliferation. nclassied intelli'ence re)orts toldCon'ress that China $as a H#e/ su))lierI of technolo'/@ )articularl/$ith PRC entities )ro4idin' nuclear and missile-related technolo'/ toPa#istan and missile-related technolo'/ to +ran. Polic/ a))roaches in

61

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http://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL31555.pdf




see#in' PRC coo)eration ha4e concerned summits@ sanctions@ andsatellite e=)orts. PRC proli%eration a#ti$ities ha$e #ontinued toraise 5uestions about China’s #ommitment to nonproli%erationand the need %or <)) san#tions) The nited States has im)osedsanctions on 4arious PRC HentitiesI includin' state-o$ned entities for

troublesome transfers related to missiles and chemical $ea)ons toPa#istan@ +ran@ or )erha)s another countr/@ includin' re)eatedsanctions on some Hserial )roliferators.I Since 200>@ the &bamaAdministration has im)osed sanctions on 1( occasions on multi)leentities in China for $ea)ons )roliferation.

trong <!China relations key to pre$ent +ranProli%erationDeutter, Department o% tate, "Paula A.@ nited States Assistant Secretar/ of State for erication@Com)liance@ and +m)lementation from 2002 to 200>@ sta of the

nited States Senate Select Committee on +ntelli'ence.:O There she$as the sta liaison to Senator ?on /l and $as res)onsible forle'islation and o4ersi'ht of intelli'ence collection@ anal/sis andacti4ities related to )roliferation@ terrorism@ arms control@ the Persian5ulf States@ +ndia@ Pa#istan@ China@ and Af'hanistan@ ?ul/ 26@ HChina EsRecord of Proliferation Acti4ities@Ihtt)9$$$.nuclearles.or'menu#e/-issuesnuclear-$ea)onsissues)roliferationchinastate-de)artment-)roliferation-acti4ities.htm@ accessed ?ul/ @ 2016@ 7O

,et me be'in b/ statin' the ob4ious9 China is a key to a#hie$ing

the Administration-s goal o% stopping the proli%eration o%weapons o% mass destru#tion te#hnology throughout the world.Chinese oQ#ials at e$ery le$el ha$e said both publi#ly andpri$ately to us that China re#ogni9es the importan#e o% thisissue, and e*pressed their hope that nonproli%eration #an bean area o% #ooperation rather than #ontention between our two#ountries) 3hile $e too share this desire@ + must re)ort to /ou toda/that $e continue to see )roblems in the )roliferant beha4ior of certainChinese entities and remain dee)l/ concerned about the Chinesego$ernment-s o%ten narrow interpretation o% nonproli%eration#ommitments and la#k o% en%or#ement o% nonproli%eration

regulations) The 'o4ernment of China has not done enou'h to ensurethat all Chinese entities abide b/ the non)roliferation commitments the

Chinese 'o4ernment has made. This has an impa#t on our

bilateral relationship) As Secretar/ Po$ell said last /ear@ ChinaEs

fulllment of its non)roliferation commitments $ould be crucial todeterminin' the Mualit/ of the nited States -- China relationshi).4hile there are many buyers in the market %or 42D =weapons

62

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o% mass destru#tion> and missiles, there are only a hand%ul o%states with the #apability to be dealers in that market) China-ssophisti#ation with many o% these te#hnologies has made itpossible %or Chinese entities to be#ome key e*porters o% 42Dand missile te#hnology. nfortunatel/@ Chinese entitiesE record of

transferrin' these technolo'ies -- and the record of the Chinese'o4ernmentEs enforcement of its o$n la$s and re'ulations to stemthese transfers -- ha4e for the most )art been )oor.

trong <!ino Relations key to #he#k ino!+ran relationsand +ran Proli%4uthnow, <))!China @#onomi# and e#urity Re$iewCommission, 1"?oel@ an Asia anal/st in the China Securit/ Aairs 5rou). 8is research

interests include Chinese forei'n and securit/ )olic/@ .S.-Chinarelations@ and Chinese domestic )olitics. 8e is the author of a boo#@Chinese Di)lomac/ and the nited Nations Securit/ CouncilRoutled'e@ 2012 and se4eral articles in 7ast Asia-related academic Fournals. Prior to Foinin' CNA@ 3uthno$ held fello$shi)s in the China [the 3orld Pro'ram at Princeton ni4ersit/ and at the Broo#in's+nstitution. 8e recei4ed an A.B.@ summa cum laude@ in Public and+nternational Aairs from Princeton ni4ersit/@ an <.Phil. in <odernChinese Studies from &=ford ni4ersit/@ and a Ph.D. in Political Sciencefrom Columbia ni4ersit/. 8e has also s)ent nearl/ t$o /ears stud/in'and conductin' research in China@ ?une (@ .S.-C8+NA 7C&N&<+C and

S7CR+T R7+73 C&<<+SS+&N@ HTestimon/ before the .S.-ChinaSecurit/ and 7conomic Re4ie$ Commission9 8earin' on HChina and the<iddle 7ast@I htt)9$$$.uscc.'o4sitesdefaultles3T8N&3WnalZ20testimon/.)df @ accessed ?ul/ @ 2016@ 7O

&n the o))osite side of the led'er@ China’s partnership with +ranhas been limited by :ei'ing’s need to maintain positi$erelations with the <nited tates) ?ohn 5ar4er concludes thatChina’s ties with +ran are a se#ond!orderF relationship,surpassed in importan#e by its primary relations with the<nited tates) As e4idence@ 5ar4er chronicles ho$ China’s broader

goals o% e#onomi# and politi#al #ooperation with the <nitedtates led :ei'ing to eliminate %ormal #ooperation in nu#learand missile programs with +ran in the mid!1JJ6s@ e4en thou'hconcerns remained about illicit coo)eration bet$een the t$o in theseareas.10 <ore recentl/@ the in?uen#e o% the <nited tates wasapparent in China’s de#isions to support <N e#urity Coun#ilsan#tions against +ran in 616)11 This episode is worthre#ounting be#ause it illustrates that sustained high!le$el

6:

http://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/WUTHNOW_final%20testimony.pdf







diploma#y by the <nited tates #an #ontribute to #hanges in

:ei'ing’s de#ision!making with respe#t to +ran . After

international ne'otiations on +rans nuclear )ro'ram stalled in 200>@the nited States o)ted to )ursue a fourth round of N Securit/Council sanctions. This measure $as intended to )ressure Tehran tocom)l/ $ith +nternational Atomic 7ner'/ A'enc/ 4ericationreMuirements. +n late 200>@ <)) oQ#ials began a diplomati# push%or Chinese support at the <N. The ar'ument of ocials such asurt Cam)bell@ ?ere/ Bader@ and 8illar/ Clinton@ $as that China shoulda'ree to sanctions due to +rans continued 4iolation of +A7AreMuirements@ the threat to regional stability posed by +ran’songoing nu#lear program, and the desire by many within theregion %or stronger international pressure against Tehran)

4ithout #ontainment, +ran Proli%eration is ine$itable

oldberg, The Atlanti# National Correspondent, 1?ere/@ ?ere/ 5oldber' is a national corres)ondent for The Atlanticand a reci)ient of the National <a'aKine A$ard for Re)ortin'. Author of the boo# Prisoners9 A Stor/ of "riendshi) and Terror@ 5oldber' also$rites the ma'aKineEs ad4ice column. <&R7 Before Foinin' The Atlanticin 200*@ 5oldber' $as a <iddle 7ast corres)ondent@ and the3ashin'ton corres)ondent@ for The Ne$ or#er. Pre4iousl/@ he ser4edas a corres)ondent for The Ne$ or# Times <a'aKine and Ne$ or#ma'aKine. 8e has also $ritten for the ?e$ish Dail/ "or$ard@ and $as acolumnist for The ?erusalem Post.@ <arch 2@ The Atlantic@ H&bama to+ran and +srael9 EAs President of the nited States@ + DonEt BluE@Ihtt)9$$$.theatlantic.cominternationalarchi4e20120:obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-)resident-of-the-united-states-i-dont-blu2%:*%@accessed ?ul/ @ 2016@ 7O

5&,DB7R59 Do you see a##idental nu#lear es#alation as anissueE PR7S+D7NT &BA<A9 Absolutely) 3ook, the %a#t is, + don-t

think any o% it would be a##idental) + think it would be $ery

intentional) +% +ran gets a nu#lear weapon, + $onEt name the

countries@ but there are probably %our or G$e #ountries in the2iddle @ast who say, (4e are going to start a program, and we

will ha$e nu#lear weapons) And at that )oint@ the )ros)ect formiscalculation in a re'ion that has that man/ tensions and ssures is)rofound. ou essentiall/ then du)licate the challen'es of +ndia andPa#istan 4efold or tenfold. 5&,DB7R5 4ith e$erybody pointing ate$erybody else. PR7S+D7NT &BA<A9 3ith e$erybody pointing ate$erybody else)

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China!< Relations ol$e NM

Relations are key to sol$e North Moreas Nukes<nited tates +nstitute %or Pea#e, 1;

nited States +nstitute for Peace@ 6102016@ nited States +nstitute ofPeace@ HChinas Ambassador Sa/s Ties $ith .S. Are No ,on'er E\ero-Sum 5ameEI@ htt)9$$$.usi).or')ublicationschina-s-ambassador-sa/s-ties-us-are-no-lon'er-Kero-sum-'ame@ accessed *2016 CO8adley also asked the ambassador about China-s in?uen#e o$erNorth Morea-s nu#lear ambitions and stability, #ommentingthat many in the <)) belie$e that North Morea #ould be apotentially di$isi$e topi# between the <)) and China) Theambassador res)onded that China was deeply #on#erned aboutthe nu#lear #apability o% the Demo#rati# People-s Republi# o%Morea .DPRM/ and about the risks o% another war or armed

#on?i#t B as that would dire#tly impa#t China-s nationalse#urity interests) China has always stood %or thedenu#leari9ation o% the entire peninsula, he said) tressingthat this problem #annot be sol$ed by China alone, Cui #alled%or an intensiGed e&ort to mo$e %orward with the si*!partytalks)

ino!Ameri#an Relations key to #he#k North MoreastabilityNanto, 2anyin, pe#ialist in +ndustry and trade, pe#ialistin Asian A&airs, 16Dic# <ar#@ 12210@ Con'ressional Research

Ser4ice@ China-North [email protected]'s')crsro$R6106:.)df@*16@A3The People’s Republi# o% China .PRC/ plays a key role in <))poli#y toward the Demo#rati# People’s Republi# o% Morea.DPRM or North Morea/) The PRC is North Morea’s #losest ally,largest pro$ider o% %ood, %uel, and industrial ma#hinery, andarguably the #ountry most able to wield in?uen#e inPyongyang) China also is the host o% the i*!Party Talks.in$ol$ing the <nited tates, China, North Morea, outh Morea, 0apan, and Russia/ o$er North Morea’s nu#lear program) The#lose PRC!DPRM relationship is o% interest to <)) poli#ymakers

be#ause China plays a pi$otal role in the su##ess o% <)) e&ortsto halt the DPRM’s nu#lear weapons and ballisti# missileprograms, to pre$ent nu#lear proli%eration, to en%or#ee#onomi# san#tions, and to ensure that North Morean re%ugeesthat #ross into China re#ei$e humane treatment) Since late 200@China has been not Fust the lar'est@ but also the dominant@ )ro4ider ofaid and )artner in trade $ith North orea. This re)ort )ro4ides a briefsur4e/ of China-North orea relations@ assesses PRC obFecti4es and

6%

http://www.usip.org/publications/china-s-ambassador-says-ties-us-are-no-longer-zero-sum-game







tates)F Accordin' to De)ut/ National Securit/ Ad4isor Ben Rhodes@Obama and i tou#hed on a number o% hot button issues intheir talk, in#luding climate chan'e@ North Morea’s nu#learprogram@ the P%_1 tal#s $ith +ran@ c/bersecurit/@ and mil-to-milrelations. 3hile &bama and Ji )raised coo)eration on issues li#e

climate chan'e and the ne'otiations $ith +ran@ on se4eral of theseissues@ the .S. and Chinese leaders continue to )ush o))ositea'endas) On the issue o% North Morea@ Rhodes said that Obamaunders#ored the need %or #lose #oordination in sending a#lear message that there needs to be denu#leari9ation on theMorean Peninsula)F Obama also repeated the <)) position thata potential resumption o% the i*!Party Talks would be basedupon a#tions taken by North Morea, whi#h has not yetdemonstrated its willingness to #ome to the table seriously.IChina@ mean$hile@ has been )ushin' for a resum)tion of the Si=-Part/ Tal#s $ithout an/ )reconditions@ sho$in' a clear discre)anc/ bet$een

BeiFin' and 3ashin'tons )ositions. As for c/bersecurit/@ &bama mi'htha4e been better ser4ed to let that subFect lie@ as earlier this $ee# theNe$ or# Times re)orted that the National Securit/ A'enc/ has hac#edinto the ser4ers of Chinese tech rm 8ua$ei. The Times re)ort@ basedon lea#s from 7d$ard Sno$den@ said the NSA breached 8ua$eisser4ers see#in' e4idence of direct connections bet$een the com)an/and the P,A@ but also to ensure the NSA eas/ access to 8ua$eisnet$or#s in other countries. <onda/@ "orei'n <inistr/ S)o#esman8on' ,ei told the )ress that China $as Hseriousl/ concernedI $ith there)orts. H3e reMuire the American side to 'i4e a clear e=)lanation andsto) such beha4iors@I 8on' added. Ji raised concerns about the NSAs

snoo)in' in his meetin' $ith &bama@ accordin' to Rhodes. +nres)onse@ &bama tried to distin'uish bet$een Chinese and Americanc/ber acti4ities usin' the 3hite 8ouses rhetorical se)aration bet$eenle'itimate intelli'ence acti4ities and ille'al c/ber s)/in' aimed atstealin' commercial secrets. Accordin'l/@ &bama stressed that Hthenited States does not en'a'e in es)iona'e to 'ain a commercialad4anta'e.I Ji is not li#el/ to be mollied b/ such distinctions. Themaritime dis)utes in the South and 7ast China Seas@ fast becomin' oneof the maFor issues in .S.-China relations@ also came u) at the &bama-Ji meetin'. &bama re)eated .S. concerns o4er the 7ast China Sea airdefense identication Kone that China announced last No4ember.

&bama also hi'hli'hted .S. su))ort for handlin' the dis)utes throu'hdialo'ue@ based on international la$. 8o$e4er@ in a clear si'n of .S.interests@ &bama Hreiterated his su))ort for the securit/ of our allies@ ?a)an and the Phili))inesI!t$o countries that ha4e had es)eciall/tense standos $ith China o4er dis)uted territories. Ji ?in)in' told&bama that he should Hado)t an obFecti4e and fair attitudeI to$ardsthe dis)utes@ as China disa))ro4es of stron' .S. su))ort for its alliesin the dis)utes. The t$o leaders also s)ent time discussin' the

6*




situation in Crimea. Rhodes called it Ha 'ood discussionI in $hich Jisaid that Hthe )rinci)le of the inde)endence and so4erei'nt/ of nations$as fundamental to their a))roach.I 8o$e4er@ Rhodes also set a lo$bar for $hat he $ould consider Chinese coo)eration on the issue@notin' that China 'enerall/ does not en'a'e in sanctions. H+ thin# $e

$ould nd it as a constructi4e ste) for them to continue to refrain fromsu))ortin' Russias action@I Rhodes said. +nterestin'l/@ one to)ic thata))arentl/ $as not under discussion bet$een Ji and &bama $asnuclear securit/@ the theme of the summit that brou'ht the t$o mento'ether in the rst )lace. 7arlier in his )residenc/@ $hen .S.-Russiarelations $ere a bit more cordial@ &bama successfull/ )ushed fornuclear reductions bet$een the t$o )o$ers. +n 2010@ he si'ned theNe$ START treat/ $ith then-President of Russia Dmitri <ed4ede4. Butthere ha4e been no serious eorts to en'a'e $ith China in a )olic/aimed at reducin' nuclear stoc#)iles!in )art because Chinasstoc#)ile is alread/ much smaller than those of the .S. and Russia

$ho bet$een them )ossess almost >0 )ercent of the $orlds nuclear$ea)ons. Still@ as Putin in )articular has been reluctant to )ursuefurther reductions $ithout bu/-in from other so-called Hsecond tierInuclear )o$ers@ it ma/ be dicult for future nuclear dra$do$ns to)ro'ress $ithout Chinese coo)eration. To en'a'e in seriousdiscussions@ ho$e4er@ $ould reMuire more clarit/ than BeiFin' has been$illin' to 'i4e re'ardin' its nuclear stoc#)iles. China belie4es that this4er/ uncertaint/ is a #e/ )art of its nuclear deterrent strate'/@ and isunli#el/ to embrace trans)arenc/. BeiFin' also sa/s the .S. and Russiamust under'o much more drastic reductions in their nuclear in4entor/before it $ould be a))ro)riate for China to Foin a multilateral

discussion.

Chinese Ameri#an #oop needed to denu#leari9e NorthMoreahaenle, 1;,.)aul@ %16@ Carne'ie-tsin'hua center for 'lobal )olic/@.S.-China relations9 <oi4n' Be/ond thescri)t@carne'ietsin'hua.or'2016060cisr-201:-u.s.-china-relations-mo4in'-be/ond-scri)th*m(@*16@A3The <)) and China ha$e made a great deal o% progress o$erthe past "; years o% oQ#ial relations to e*pand and enhan#e#ooperation and understanding between the leaders and

people, and de$elop the bilateral relationship. But in the )ast@both countries ha4e focused for the most )art on bilateral issuesissues that ha4e onl/ dealt $ith the t$o countries@ and not includedmaFor 'lobal issues on the bilateral a'enda. Today@ ho$e4er@ <)) andChinese strategi# interests are be#oming in#reasingly global)As i has identiGed, both #ountries are at a turning point in#ooperation be#ause China is growing in e#onomi# power andinternational in?uen#e, and is more in?uential on global

6




issues) +n the %uture, the ma'or #hallenges and opportunities%or the <))!China relationship will #ome in working together toaddress #riti#al global #hallenges) The list of these 'lobalchallen'es is lon'@ and 'ettin' lon'er. Toda/@ it includes addressin'critical non)roliferation challen'es@ in#luding most urgently, the

denu#leari9ation and non!proli%eration in +ran and North MoreaVc/bersecurit/V $or#in' to'ether to resol4e maFor 'lobal and re'ionalsecurit/ crises such as S/riaV $or#in' to'ether to brin' stabilit/ and'ro$th to the international economic s/stemV addressin' climatechan'e and other en4ironmental challen'esV ensurin' adeMuate andsecure su))lies of ener'/V transnational crimeV and counter-)irac/eorts. These common 'lobal issues cannot be sol4ed $ithout the .S.and China $or#in' to'ether to ma#e meanin'ful )ro'ress in $a/s thatbenet the .S. and China. Pro'ress and coo)eration has been elusi4ebecause of mistrust and lac# of o)en communication. China must bemore )roacti4e in identif/in' areas and formin' concrete )ro)osals on

'lobal issues. 3ithin a ne$ frame$or# aimed at increasin'understandin' and trust@ both countries can be'in to ma#e )ro'ress onconseMuential 'lobal issues and score 4ictories. 3hen this ha))ens,both leaders will be in a mu#h stronger position to #on$ey totheir people that the <)) and China are working together %orthe better o% global good)

6>




China!< Relations ol$e 4arming

4arming is #oming now and will be #atastrophi#, what weknow now is good enough e$en i% there are un#ertainties,

< and China #ooperation is T8@ ON3 way to sol$e!inno$ation and produ#tion #apa#itiesPaulson, #hairman o% the Paulson +nstitute at the<ni$ersity o% Chi#ago, X!"!1;8enr/ <.@ ?r.@ HClimate crisis calls for actionI@ the Paulson +nstitute is athin# tan# that studies 'lobal en4ironmental )rotection and sustainableeconomic 'ro$th in the nited States and China@ $hile anal/Kin' theinterde)endenc/ bet$een the t$o countries@htt)9m.startribune.como)inionQid`2(6:1%2*1[c`/@ accessed*(16@ ,,<There is a time for $ei'hin' e4idence and a time for actin'. And if theres one thin' +4e learned

throu'h m/ $or# in nance@ 'o4ernment and conser4ation@ it is to a#t be%ore problemsbe#ome too big to manage) "or too man/ /ears@ $e failed to rein in the e=cesses

buildin' u) in the nations nancial mar#ets. 3hen the credit bubble burst in 200@ the dama'e $as

de4astatin'. <illions suered. <an/ still do. 4e’re making the same mistake todaywith #limate #hange) 4e’re staring down a #limate bubble thatposes enormous risks to both our en$ironment and e#onomy.

The $arnin' si'ns are clear and 'ro$in' more ur'ent as the ris#s 'o unchec#ed. This is a crisis $e cantaord to i'nore. 3e need to act no$@ e4en thou'h there is much disa'reement@ includin' from members of m/ o$n Re)ublican Part/@ on ho$ to address this issue $hile remainin' economicall/ com)etiti4e. The/re

ri'ht to consider the economic im)lications. :ut we must not lose sight o% thepro%ound e#onomi# risks o% doing nothing) The solution #an bea %undamentally #onser$ati$e one that will empower the

marketpla#e to Gnd the most eQ#ient response . 3e can do this b/ )uttin'a )rice on emissions of carbon dio=ide ! a carbon ta=. "e$ in the nited States no$ )a/ to emit this)otent 'reenhouse 'as into the atmos)here $e all share. Puttin' a )rice on emissions $ill create

incenti4es to de4elo) ne$@ cleaner ener'/ technolo'ies. +t’s true that the <nitedtates #an’t sol$e this problem alone) :ut we’re not going topersuade other big #arbon polluters to take the urgent a#tionthat’s needed i% we’re not doing e$erything we #an to slow our#arbon emissions. + $as secretar/ of the Treasur/ $hen the credit bubble burst@ so + thin# its

fair to sa/ that + #no$ a little bit about ris#@ assessin' outcomes and )roblem-sol4in'. ,oo#in' bac# at thedar# da/s of 200@ it is eas/ to see the similarities bet$een the nancial crisis and the climate challen'e

$e no$ face. 4e are building up e*#esses debt in 200@ 'reenhouse 'as emissions

that are tra))in' heat no$. Our go$ernment poli#ies are ?awed incenti4iKin' us

to borro$ too much to nance homes then@ and encoura'in' the o4eruse of carbon-based fuels no$.

Our e*perts nancial e=)erts then@ climate scientists no$ try to understand whatthey see and to model possible %utures) And the outsi9e risksha$e the potential to be tremendously damaging .to aglobali9ed e#onomy then, and the global #limate now/) Bac# then@

we narrowly a$oided an e#onomi# catastro)he at the last minute b/ rescuin' a

colla)sin' nancial s/stem throu'h 'o4ernment action. :ut #limate #hange is moreintra#table. The carbon dio=ide $ere sendin' into the atmos)here remains there for centuries@

heatin' u) the )lanet. That means the de#isions we’re making today H

%0

http://m.startribune.com/opinion/?id=264315271&c=y

http://m.startribune.com/opinion/?id=264315271&c=y




to #ontinue along a path that’s almost entirely #arbon!dependent H are lo#king us in %or long!term #onse5uen#es that $e

$ill not be able chan'e but onl/ ada)t to@ at enormous #ost. To )rotect Ne$ or# Cit/ from

risin' seas and storm sur'es is e=)ected to cost at least L20 billion initiall/@ and e4entuall/ far more. Andthats Fust one coastal cit/. 3hen + $orr/ about ris#s@ + $orr/ about the bi''est ones@ )articularl/ those thatare dicult to )redict ! the ones + call small but dee) holes. 3hile odds are /ou $ill a4oid them@ if /ou dofall in one@ its a lon' $a/ do$n and nearl/ im)ossible to cla$ /our $a/ out. Scientists ha4e identied anumber of these holes ! )otential thresholds that@ once crossed@ could cause s$ee)in'@ irre4ersiblechan'es. The/ dont #no$ e=actl/ $hen $e $ould reach them. But the/ #no$ $e should do e4er/thin' $ecan to a4oid them. Alread/@ obser4ations are catchin' u) $ith /ears of scientic models@ and the trendsare not in our fa4or. "e$er than 10 /ears a'o@ the best anal/sis )roFected that meltin' Arctic sea ice $ouldmean nearl/ ice-free summers b/ the end of the 21st centur/. No$ the ice is meltin' so ra)idl/ that4irtuall/ ice-free Arctic summers could be here in the ne=t decade or t$o. The lac# of re;ecti4e ice $illmean that more of the suns heat $ill be absorbed b/ the oceans@ acceleratin' $armin' of both the oceansand the atmos)here@ and ultimatel/ raisin' sea le4els. 74en $orse@ in <a/@ t$o se)arate studiesdisco4ered that one of the bi''est thresholds has alread/ been reached. The 3est Antarctic ice sheet hasbe'un to melt@ a )rocess that scientists estimate ma/ ta#e centuries but that could e4entuall/ raise sea

le4els b/ as much as 16 feet. Now that this pro#ess has begun, there isnothing we #an do to undo the underlying dynami#s, whi#hs#ientists say are baked in)F +t is true that there is uncertaint/ about the timin' and

ma'nitude of these ris#s and man/ others. But those who #laim the s#ien#e is

unsettled or a#tion is too #ostly are simply trying to ignore the

problem) The nature o% a #risis is its unpredi#tability . And as $e all

$itnessed durin' the nancial crisis@ a chain reaction of cascadin' failures ensued from one intert$ined

)art of the s/stem to the ne=t. +ts eas/ to see a sin'le )art in motion. +t’s not so easy to#al#ulate the resulting domino e&e#t) That sort o% #ontagionnearly took down the global Gnan#ial system) 3ith that e=)erience

indelibl/ aectin' m/ )ers)ecti4e@ $iewing #limate #hange in terms o% riskassessment and risk management makes #lear to me thattaking a #autiously #onser$ati$e stan#e H that is, waiting %ormore in%ormation be%ore a#ting H is a#tually taking a $ery

radi#al risk) 4e’ll ne$er know enough to resol$e all o% theun#ertainties) :ut we know enough to re#ogni9e that we musta#t now) +m a businessman@ not a climatolo'ist. But +4e s)ent a considerable amount of time $ith

climate scientists and economists $ho ha4e de4oted their careers to this issue. There is 4irtuall/ no debateamon' them that the )lanet is $armin' and that the burnin' of fossil fuels is lar'el/ res)onsible. "arseein'business leaders are alread/ in4ol4ed in this issue. +ts time for more to $ei'h in. To add reliable nancialdata to the science@ +4e Foined $ith the former ma/or of Ne$ or# Cit/@ <ichael Bloomber'@ and the retiredhed'e fund mana'er Tom Ste/er on an economic anal/sis of the costs of inaction across #e/ re'ions andeconomic sectors. &ur 'oal for the Ris#/ Business )roFect ! startin' $ith a ne$ stud/ that $ill be released

this $ee# ! is to in;uence business and in4estor decisionma#in' $orld$ide. 4e need to #ra%tnational poli#y that uses market %or#es to pro$ide in#enti$es%or the te#hnologi#al ad$an#es re5uired to address #limate#hange. As +4e said@ $e can do this b/ )lacin' a ta= on carbon dio=ide emissions. <an/ res)ected

economists@ of all ideolo'ical )ersuasions@ su))ort this a))roach. 3e can debate the a))ro)riate )ricin'and )olic/ desi'n and ho$ to use the mone/ 'enerated. But a )rice on carbon $ould chan'e the beha4iorof both indi4iduals and businesses. At the same time@ all fossil fuel ! and rene$able ener'/ ! subsidiesshould be )hased out. Rene$able ener'/ can outcom)ete dirt/ fuels once )ollution costs are accountedfor. Some members of m/ )olitical )art/ $orr/ that )ricin' carbon is a Hbi' 'o4ernmentI inter4ention. +nfact@ it $ill reduce the role of 'o4ernment@ $hich@ on our )resent course@ increasin'l/ $ill be called on tohel) communities and re'ions aected b/ climate-related disasters li#e ;oods@ drou'ht-related cro)failures@ and e=treme $eather li#e tornadoes@ hurricanes and other 4iolent storms. 3ell all be )a/in' thosecosts. Not once@ but man/ times o4er. +n a future $ith more se4ere storms@ dee)er drou'hts@ lon'er reseasons and risin' seas that im)eril coastal cities@ )ublic fundin' to )a/ for ada)tations and disaster relief$ill add si'nicantl/ to our scal decit and threaten our lon'-term economic securit/. So it is )er4ersethat those $ho $ant limited 'o4ernment and rail a'ainst bailouts $ould )ut the econom/ at ris# b/

%1




i'norin' climate chan'e. There is a tenden#y, parti#ularly in go$ernmentand politi#s, to a$oid %o#using on diQ#ult problems until they

balloon into #risis) 4e would be %ools to wait %or that to

happen to our #limate) 3hen /ou run a com)an/@ /ou $ant to hand it o in better sha)e

than /ou found it. ?ust as $e shouldnt lea4e our 'randchildren $ith mountains of national debt and

unsustainable entitlement )ro'rams@ $e shouldnt lea4e them $ith the economic and en4ironmental costsof climate chan'e. Re)ublicans must not shrin# from this issue. Ris# mana'ement is a conser4ati4e)rinci)le@ as is )reser4in' our natural en4ironment for future 'enerations. 3e are@ after all@ the )art/ of

Tedd/ Roose4elt. This problem #an’t be sol$ed without strong

leadership %rom the de$eloping world) The key is #ooperation

between the <nited tates and China H the two biggest

e#onomies, the two biggest emitters o% #arbon dio*ide and thetwo biggest #onsumers o% energy) 4hen it #omes to de$elopingnew te#hnologies, no #ountry #an inno$ate like Ameri#a) Andno #ountry #an test new te#hnologies and roll them out at

s#ale 5ui#ker than China) The two nations must #ome together

on #limate . The Paulson +nstitute at the ni4ersit/ of Chica'o@ a Hthin#-and-do tan#I + founded to

hel) stren'then the economic and en4ironmental relationshi) bet$een these t$o countries@ is focused on

brid'in' this 'a). 4e already ha$e a head start on the te#hnologieswe need) The #osts o% the poli#ies ne#essary to make thetransition to an e#onomy powered by #lean energy are real,but modest relati$e to the risks)

%2




< B TPA At the Top o% the Do#et

Republi#an #ontrol o% the enate makes TPA more likely,puts it at the top o% the do#ket

American /etal /arket 11-$6-1& 4OP-led *enate may act on free trade# A''*

Republi#an #ontrol o% the <)) enate #ould trigger reneweda#tion on free-trade issues and boost Trade Promotion Authorit/ TPAle'islation@ $hich $ould ease international trade ne'otiations@accordin' to the American +nstitute for +nternational Steel A++S.Control o% the 8ouse and the enate by Republi#an lawmakers,who appear more %a$orable to pro!%ree trade poli#ies, will ha$ea (pro%ound e&e#t( on trade negotiations@ A++S e=ecuti4e directorRichard Chriss told A<<. 3e $ill see a si'nicant ne$ focus in

3ashin'ton on free-trade )olic/.TPA legislation will be a top item on the politi#al agenda %orthe ne*t se$eral months@ accordin' to Chriss. The mandate limitsCon'ressE abilit/ to interfere $ith trade a'reements@ allo$in'e=)edited )residential consideration of trade deals.TPA is 4itall/ im)ortant in the conte=t of the 12-countr/ Trans-PacicPartnershi) ne'otiations and 7..-.S. trade ne'otiations@ Chriss said@notin' that the A++S is alread/ $or#in' $ith #e/ con'ressional sta tos)eed u) the )assa'e of TPA le'islation. +f successful@ TPA le'islation$ould indicate unit/ of )ur)ose bet$een the le'islati4e ande=ecuti4e branches of the .S. 'o4ernment@ he said. +t si'nals to our

ne'otiatin' )artners that serious concessions can be )ut on the table@since $ith TPA in )lace itEs hi'hl/ unli#el/ that the terms of the deal are'oin' to be re$ritten b/ Con'ress. Congress- pre$ious %ailure torati%y or implement trade deals #aused serious embarrassmentand setba#ks to the <nited tates in the international arena@accordin' to Chriss. Some )eo)le ha4e doubted the si'nicance orrele4ance of fast-trac# authorit/ and no$ the TPA o4er the /ears@ butthe histor/ of TPA sho$s stron' bi)artisan a'reement for the necessit/of it.ChrissE remar#s echoed those b/ Charlotte@ N.C.-based steelma#erNucor Cor).@ $hich said )rior to the No4. 6 elections that a Re)ublican

4ictor/ $ould mo4e trade authorit/ le'islation. .S. TradeRe)resentati4e <ichael B. "roman told Con'ress in A)ril that his ocebac#ed an u)date of the TPA. The &bama administration has notedthat fresh trade authorit/ ensures our tradin' )artners #no$ .S.ne'otiators ha4e the su))ort of Con'ress. The nited States hasne'otiated free-trade deals $ith Colombia@ Panama@ Peru and Southorea since the TPA authorit/ e=)ired in 200*. Some Democrats in the)ast ha4e o))osed rene$in' trade authorit/ for the President@ ar'uin'

%:




that Con'ress must ha4e a meanin'ful role in de4elo)in' free-tradea'reements.

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0anuary Agenda Answers

%%




8ealth Care, Ta* Re%orm, +mmigration Re%ormAnswers

Non!starters 8ealth #are repeal, ta* re%orm, immigration

re%orm

,ee 8amilton, 1!J, 16 8amilton directs the Center on Con'ress at+ndiana ni4ersit/. 8e $as a member of the .S. 8ouse ofRe)resentati4es for :6 /ears@ SA Toda/@ HCon'ress@ President shouldcoo)eration on the small stu@Ihtt)9$$$.thetimesherald.comstor/o)inioncolumnists2016120>con'ress-)resident-coo)erate-small-stu201(2:>> D&A9 12->-16

+n the end@ 201% $ill see a mi= of small ste)s for$ard and bac#$ard.There’s little #han#e o% a minimum wage in#rease and its

unli#el/ the bud'et $ill be )assed in an orderl/ and traditional manner.Similarl/, signiG#ant and diQ#ult issues like ma'or entitlementand ta* re%orm will pro$e hard to budge, and #omprehensi$eimmigration re%orm is a near impossibility) There will be nokno#kdown pun#h on Obama#are, but $ell see )lent/ of eorts to

chi) a$a/ at it"

%(








TPA Answers

2any TPP barriers

Re). Rosa De,auro@ 12-@ 16@ Deauro *tatement On Trans-PacificPartnership (egotiations7 3ep" 3osa " Deauro 8D-+T9 (ews 3elease

http#::delauro"house"go!:inde;"php<option=com>content?!iew=article?id=1@@%#delauro-statement-on-trans-pacific-partnership-negotiations?catid=$?'temid=$1 DOA# 1$--1&

B*ignificant unresol!ed issues remain and congressional appro!al ofeither the TPP or Trade Promotion Authority is far from certain" There arestill no currency pro!isions in this agreement" +ountries that under!aluetheir currency do so to make their goods cheaper gi!ing them an unfair

trade ad!antage and accelerating the e;port of our Cobs o!erseas" argebipartisan groups in both chambers of +ongress ha!e made it clear thatthere will be no deal without a strong enforceable currency chapter"B

Obama not pushing TPA, Congress won’t a#t


3awmakers kept trade o& the agenda %or the lame!du#ksession and may not be rushing to take it up in the newCongress in ?anuar/. "ast-Trac# Timetable 7lusi4e. peaker ?ohn A.Boehner seemed to indi#ate at a Thursda/ )ress conference that the8ouse may not rush to take up trade promotion authority, alsoknown as %ast!tra#k authorit/. 3hen a re)orter as#ed if it $ould be a)riorit/ in the 116th Con'ress@ :oehner replied@ +E4e been tr/in' todo trade )romotion for three /ears. But it-s hard to do when thepresident won-t e$en stand up and ask %or it)(

Republi#ans and Demo#rats oppose %ast!tra#k


"ast-trac# authorit/ allo$s the &bama administration to ta#e tradea'reements to Con'ress onl/ for a))ro4al or reFection. ,a$ma#ers

%*

http://delauro.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1770:delauro-statement-on-trans-pacific-partnership-negotiations&catid=2&Itemid=21









could not ma#e maFor re4isions. Some Re)ublicans ma/ ha4e cooled to'i4in' the )resident the authorit/ because of &bamaEs No4embere=ecuti4e order to )ro4ide tem)orar/ le'al status for u) to % millionille'al immi'rants $ho meet the conditions. There-s also a blo#k o%Demo#rats who oppose %ast!tra#k authority be#ause they

would be unable to #hange what they $iew as inade5uate laborand en$ironmental prote#tions) Obama has said he would likethe authority, but he hasn-t made the re5uest to Congress)

Ryan not #ommitted to mo$ing TPA

+nside < Trade, 1!7-16@ H30A( T3EAD* '4,T0 '( '3*T T3ADE+O//E(T* A* '(+O/'(4 )A0* ? /EA(* +,A'3

+ncomin' 8ouse 3a/s [ <eans Committee Chairman Paul R/an R-3+

on Dec. 2 tread cautiousl/ in his rst comments on trade since bein'ta))ed to lead the )anel in the ne=t Con'ress@ reiteratin' his su))ortfor Trade Promotion Authorit/ TPA and re)eatedl/ callin' for a stron' Trans-Pacic Partnershi) TPP a'reement. But Ryan, $ho s)o#e at the3all Street ?ournal C7& Council@ ga$e no details on how or whenhe intends to mo$e TPA in the ne*t Congress) 8e also stoppedshort o% e*pli#itly demanding that TPA be in pla#e be%ore theTPP negotiations are #on#luded -- the )osition he too# $ith all3a/s [ <eans Re)ublicans in a ?ul/ letter to President &bama.

%




TPATPP Answers !! N<

No TPA or TPP

Ieldman, 1; --- )artner at Ba#er8ostetler ,,P@ his international)ractice concentrates on all forms of trade dis)utes (2:2016@ 7lliot ?.@ HThe )i4ot to Asia and the ine4itable failure of the Trans-PacicPartnershi)@I $$$.le=olo'/.comlibrar/detail.as)=Q'`(61*%cf*-2%(-6b%a-bb%>-6>fe:bf%e:f1

The Status &f Ne'otiations TPP negotiations are unlikely to produ#e aninternational agreement regardless whether 0apan or outh Moreaare parties) There are too man/ fundamental disa'reements amon' the t$el4e countries in thetal#s@ and the American attem)t to infuse the re'ion $ith American 4alues and American le'alities istrans)arent. Des)ite the secrec/ of ne'otiations@ documents ha4e lea#ed. Some ha4e included full draftte=ts@ as for an en4ironmental cha)ter. <ostl/@ the/ ha4e e=)osed the lac# of international )ro'ress."ollo$in' the No4ember 201: Round of Ne'otiations in Salt ,a#e Cit/@ the internal commentar/ of one

)artici)atin' 'o4ernment contained@ in no )articular order of im)ortance@ numerous obser4ations.Accordin' to the lea#ed document@ not$ithstandin' that Hthe .S. is e=ertin' 'reat )ressure to close asman/ issues as )ossible this $ee#@I HThe results are mediocre.I The meetin'@ this commentar/ re)orted@Iser4ed to conrm the lar'e dierences that continue in most areas of the +PO cha)ter.I "or medicines@ thenited States Hresubmitted a te=t that had been stron'l/ reFected in the )ast.I HThe nited States@ as in)re4ious rounds@ has sho$n no ;e=ibilit/ on its )ro)osal for in4estmentO . . . &nl/ the .S. and ?a)ansu))ort the )ro)osal.I The cha)ter on State-&$ned 7nter)rises His 4er/ far from closed.I There $as H4er/little )ro'ressI on Rules of &ri'in@ and the ne'otiations o4er te=tiles $ere in Ha maFor crisis.I TheH<eetin'I on the en4ironment H$as interru)ted because $e could not 'et )ast the second issue onO thedenition of en4ironmental la$.I There $as HinadeMuate )ro'ressI on nancial ser4ices9 HThe )ositions arestill )aral/sed. nited States sho$s Kero ;e=ibilit/.I The nited States had been aimin' to close the entiredeal b/ the end of 201: and 'et it before Con'ress before the summer election cam)ai'n. 8istoricall/@ thenited States has had its $a/ in international ne'otiations most $hen for'in' bilateral a'reementsbecause it has al$a/s been the dominant )la/er. &ther countries t/)icall/ $ant to dra$ the nited Statesinto multilateral ne'otiations because the/ can band to'ether to dilute American )o$er and in;uence.8ere@ the nited States has been dra$n into a multilateral ne'otiation that it has tried to treat as a

collection of bilaterals an o))ortunit/ to dismantle Canadas su))l/ mana'ementV ?a)ans a'ricultural)rotectionismV ietnams te=tile )referencesV and so forth. et@ e4en $ere the nited States someho$successful internationall/ in the ne'otiations@ Con'ress ! )robabl/ for the $ron' reasons – $ould not close

the deal. The <nited tates’ strategy %or negotiation and ratiG#ation hasbeen #ompli#ated and ba#kwards) The pro#ess, as it has e$ol$ed,has been to pla#e the initial burden on 0apan and to presentCongress with a deal it #ould not re%use) Congress , nonetheless,whate$er it is B Republi#an or Demo#rat H will re%use it, %or at leastthree reasons) Iirst, a Republi#an Congress will not gi$e President

Obama a signature %oreign poli#y su##ess in trade) Republi#ans#onsider international trade their domain the histor/ of trade commitments to the

contrar/ not$ithstandin'@ and the #urrent Republi#an Party is obstru#tionistregarding all Obama initiati$es) e#ond, the President’s own Party

does not support the Agreement, suspi#ious about labor, theen$ironment , banks, pharma#euti#al #ompanies) And third, most o%Congress %eels betrayed by the alleged se#re#y in making the deal)8ad &bama follo$ed the historical )rocess@ in $hich TPA )recedes TPP@ he ma/ ha4e been moresuccessful@ or he $ould ha4e #no$n sooner that the obFecti4e could not be reached. No$ he is )resented$ith the ris# of failure $here American credibilit/ throu'hout Asia is at sta#e. +t $ould ha4e been better to

#no$ earlier@ or to ha4e lo$ered e=)ectations. Those o)tions are 'one. Conclusion The Presidentneeds to #omplete a $ery attra#ti$e TPP in order to persuadeCongress to $ote it up or down, re5uiring prior TPA legislation) 8is

%>

http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=64175cf7-2586-4b5a-bb59-49fe3bf5e3f1







international partners, howe$er, are not making their best and Gnalo&ers without TPA #oming Grst ) Prime <inister Abe@ for e=am)le@ does not $ant to ta#eon his $hole a'ricultural sector in order to ma#e a deal that could fail in the nited States Con'ress. Thereseem to be almost dail/ re)orts that ?a)an $ill not 'i4e u) its )rotection of 4e HsacredI a'ricultural

)roducts@ a )osition 'uaranteed to crater the deal. So@ TPP #an’t be #ompletedsu##ess%ully without TPA , and TPA #annot be passed without a

#ompleted and attra#ti$e TPP. At rst@ China seemed to inter)ret the TPP as a .S.-ledattem)t at containment. &4er time@ China seemed to reco'niKe fatal )roblems $ith the ne'otiations and$orried less. At one )oint@ a /ear a'o@ China called the .S blu that it mi'ht be included in the tal#s@$hether because China $as 'enuinel/ interested@ or because China $anted to e=)ose the real )ur)ose of

the TPP. Today, China’s publi# dis#ord with the <nited tates is#on#entrated on the Ameri#an engagement as an ally o% 0apan inso$ereignty disputes) Trade dis)utes ! )rinci)all/ American com)laints about state o$nedenter)rises and Chinese state su))ort for e=)orted merchandise – continue unabated in the friendl/connes of 'o4ernment in4esti'atin' a'encies and dis)ute )anels of the 3T&@ and seem reminiscent of

the American confrontations $ith ?a)an durin' the 1>0s@ in the da/s of the 5ATT. @$en as tradedisagreements sometimes take on the appearan#e o% a trade war,se#urity issues ha$e repla#ed them in prominen#e and ha$e indu#ed

President Obama to insist again on the Ameri#an a##eptan#e o% China’srise as a ma'or power) &ne last $ord for our 7uro)ean friends@ $ho ha4e been as seduced b/

TT+P as our Asian friends ha4e been dra$n into one )rotracted ne'otiation round after another for TPP. TheAdministration has made TPA de)endent on TPP instead of the other $a/ around. ConseMuentl/@ it)ercei4es TPA as a one-o on behalf of TPP. 74en $ere it )ossible to ima'ine that this strate'/ could

succeed once@ it could not succeed t$ice. Therefore@ at least %or the li%e o% thispresiden#y, TT+P is e$en deader than TPP.

Agri#ulture dispute blo#ks TPP

The 8ill, 16!"6@ 16@ htt)9thehill.com)olic/nance2222(1-no-fast-trac#-in-lame-duc#

In the TPP, a protracted stalemate between the U.S. and Japan over auto and agricultural market access

issues is just one of the main reasons why a deal has yet to be inked

(0




TTP Answers

TPA Doesn’t mean TTP

Phil 3e$y, 11!;, 16@ H3ill the <idterms Tha$ Americas "roKen TradeA'endaQI "orei'n Polic/@htt)9shado$.forei'n)olic/.com)osts20161106$illWtheWmidtermsWtha$WobamasWfroKenWtradeWdeals

Finally, the prolonged debate over TPA can make it seem as though that authority is the main barrier to

successfully completed deals. In fact, TPA was supposed to be the easy prerequisite. It is necessary for

trade liberalization, but leaves most of the hard bargaining still to be done.

On TPP, there are questions about whether the United States is willing to make politically sensitive

concessions on autos and sugar in order to win concessions from the Japanese on agriculture or the

Australians on intellectual property rights. There are difficult issues such as rules governing state-

owned enterprises, regulation, and currency (the last a rare topic that unites the Congress, but thatdivides the United States from all of its TPP negotiating partners).

TPA doesn’t mean TT+P


The TTIP negotiations are no easier. The administration now has to negotiate with a brand new

European Commission, having failed to conclude talks under the old one. The agenda consists almostentirely of difficult issues, such as financial regulation, agriculture, data privacy, and investor-state

dispute settlement. None of this is to belittle the importance of TPA -- without it, nothing serious will

happen. But even if it were passed and signed in January next year, that would leave relatively little

time before a traditional "dead period" in American politics for tackling major trade agreements,

the presidential election season.

(1




TT+P Answers

TPA doesn’t mean TT+P


The TTIP negotiations are no easier. The administration now has to negotiate with a brand new

European Commission, having failed to conclude talks under the old one. The agenda consists almost

entirely of difficult issues, such as financial regulation, agriculture, data privacy, and investor-state

dispute settlement. None of this is to belittle the importance of TPA -- without it, nothing serious will

happen. But even if it were passed and signed in January next year, that would leave relatively little

time before a traditional "dead period" in American politics for tackling major trade agreements,

the presidential election season.

(2




Other 3ame Du#k

(:




Ta* @*tenders in 3ame Du#k

Da4id @pso, 1!J@ 16@ AP@ HCon'ressional ,a$ma#ers & L1.1 trillions)endin' bill to a4oid shutdo$n@I

htt)9$$$.stri)es.comne$suscon'ressional-la$ma#ers-o#-1-1-trillion-s)endin'-bill-to-a4oid-shutdo$n-1.:1:0: D&A9 12->-16

The federal 'o4ernmentEs 'oin' to run out of mone/ in t$o da/s. ...3eE4e been tr/in' to $or# $ith Re)ublican leaders to a4oid ashutdo$n@ Senate <aForit/ ,eader 8arr/ Reid of Ne4ada said atmidafternoon as nal ne'otiations dra''ed on.S)ea#er ?ohn :oehner said he hoped %or a $ote on the measureThursday, and oQ#ials e*pressed #onGden#e they #ouldo$er#ome opposition %rom tea party!ba#ked Republi#ans anda$oid a go$ernment shutdown. enate appro$al would then be

re5uired to send it to Obama H one o% the Gnal a#ts o% a two!year Congress far better #no$n for 'ridloc# than for accom)lishment.Not onl/ a t$o-/ear Con'ress@ but also a )olitical era $as dra$in' to aclose as the li'hts burned late inside the Ca)itol on a December ni'ht."or the rst time in ei'ht /ears@ Re)ublicans $ill ha4e a SenatemaForit/ in ?anuar/ after their hu'el/ successful midterm election@ andne$l/ elected 5&P senators-elect )artici)ated in closed-door strate'/sessions durin' the da/. :e%ore time runs out on his ma'ority,Reid said he wanted to assure #onGrmation o% nine more o%Obama-s 'udi#ial nominees and appro$e the appointment o%Ui$ek 2urthy as surgeon general) Also on Congress- must!do

list is legislation to renew a series o% e*piring ta* breaks, anda bill to authori9e the Pentagon to train and e5uip yrianrebels to Gght +slami# tate %or#es in the 2iddle @ast)

(6

http://www.stripes.com/news/us/congressional-lawmakers-ok-1-1-trillion-spending-bill-to-avoid-shutdown-1.318303







Ta* @*tenders <

Ta* e*tenders are likely to pass now

Brandon Roman@ 12-@ 16@ H,a$ma#ers Near Deal on Ta= 7=tenders@I,e=olo'/@ htt)9$$$.le=olo'/.comlibrar/detail.as)=Q'`:6a::21:-c%%c-6e%f-aed-6((f:>6:6b>% D&A >-1-16After a nearly year-long process, on Wednesday, December 3, the House voted 378-46 to approve H.R.

5771, the Tax Increase Prevention Act of 2014 – a $41.6 billion tax extenders package. At the same time,

the House also passed H.R. 647, the Achieving a Better Life Experience Act of 2014 (ABLE Act), which is

a popular bill that would allow individuals with disabilities to use section 529 savings accounts for living

expenses such as housing and education. The House combined its tax extenders package with the ABLE

Act and sent the bills to the Senate in hopes of ensuring an expedient vote on the legislation with

bipartisan support. The House’s tax extenders bill would provide a one-year retroactive extension of

approximately 50 tax extenders, meaning the tax extenders would expire after December 31, 2014.Prior to

passing H.R. 5771, lawmakers in both the House and Senate had been working together on a broaderbipartisan tax extenders deal that would have provided more certainty to taxpayers by extending most

provisions for two-years and making certain provisions – like the Research and Development (R&D) Tax

Credit – permanent. However, following a veto threat from President Obama, lawmakers abandoned this

approach in favor of the current proposal for a one-year retroactive extension, which even Ways and Means

Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) has called “less effective.” Initially, following the release of the

House’s bill, Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR) and other Senate Democrats suggested

they would still seek to pass an across-the-board two-year extension for expired tax extenders. Such an

approach would have applied retroactively for one year and prospectively for one year, thus effectively

extending the expired tax provisions through December 31, 2015. However, given the short amount of time

available to negotiate a deal with House Republicans before Congress adjourns, along with the impending

filing season, Chairman Wyden acknowledged that “there doesn’t appear to be a procedural path forward”

for the Senate approach and suggested the Senate would ultimately support the House bill. President

Obama has also indicated that he is willing to support a temporary renewal of the expired tax

provisions to ensure that U.S. businesses are able to engage in basic tax planning efforts. As such,

despite complaints from various lawmakers that a one-year extension would be futile, we expect the

Senate will take up and pass the House version of tax extenders legislation this week, which President

Obama will likely sign into law shortly thereafter. Notably, because these tax provisions will expire at

the end of the year, lawmakers in the 114th Congress will again have to tackle the issue. According to

incoming Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT), addressing tax extenders will be a priority

early-on in 2015. Moreover, incoming Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) has

indicated that Republicans may revisit their effort to make certain tax extenders permanent when the House

again takes up the issue under his Chairmanship.

(%

http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=34a33213-c55c-4e5f-aed8-466f39434b95


https://www.congress.gov/113/bills/hr5771/BILLS-113hr5771eh.pdf












A<2I 3ame Du#k Answer

A<2I won’t pass in the lame du#k

Deb Rei#hman, 1!J, 16@ St. ,ouis Tribune@ HNe$ "le=ible 3ar Po$ersNeeded to "i'ht +S@I htt)9$$$.sltrib.comhome1>2>206-1%%stor/.html D&A9 12->-16

Sen. Tim aine@ D-a.@ sa/s he doesnt $ant Con'ress to 'o home forthe holida/s $hile there are .S. ser4ice men and $omen 'htin'o4erseas and ris#in' their li4es@ and $ants to Con'ress 4ote to )ut itsim)rint on the con;ict. 3e are at $ar@ aine said@ addin'@ Con'resshas been silent about this. 2enende9 said he would #all %or a#ommittee $ote on a new authori9ation later this week) till,

%ew e*pe#t that Congress will appro$e new war powers be%orethe end o% the lame!du#k session this year) +n 0anuary,Republi#ans will #ontrol both the enate and the 8ouse) (4hate$er passes out o% #ommittee this week is not going tobe#ome law,( said en. Bob Corker@ R-Tenn.@ the incomin' chairmanof the committee. 8e said the #ommittee also wants to hear %romintelligen#e and de%ense oQ#ials)

((

http://www.sltrib.com/home/1929204-155/story.html




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