political report–an early look: primary season and obama’s legacy

Voters in the Early GOP Caucuses and PrimariesThe first four Republican caucus and primary electorates differ in some important respects, as these profiles show. Fifty-six per-cent in the 2012 Iowa GOP caucus entrance poll were white evangelicals, compared to 21 percent in the New Hampshire primary exit poll. Forty-seven percent in Iowa were very conservative; 47 percent in New Hampshire were moderate or liberal. The results below are similar to the 2008 results. In 2008, Barack Obama expanded the Iowa Democratic caucus vote substantially. Fifty-seven percent told entrance poll interviewers they were first-time caucus-goers. Could Republicans do this? We will know soon.

————————————2012 Republican Caucuses and Primaries ———————————— Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina Nevada (entrance poll) (exit poll) (exit poll) (entrance poll) Men 57% 54% 51% 53%Women 43 46 49 47

White 99% 99% 98% 90%Non-white 1 1 2 10 Under 30 years 15% 12% 9% 8%30–44 16 19 19 1545–64 42 48 45 4365 and older 26 21 27 35

Never attended college 17% 13% 18% 13%Some college 31 32 36 39College graduates 52 55 47 48 By income Under $50,000 33% 26% 36% 28% $50,000–$100,000 39 37 37 44 $100,000 or more 28 37 27 28 White Evangelical/ Born again 56% 21% 64% 24%

Very conservative 47% 21% 36% 49%Somewhat conservative 37 32 32 34Moderate or liberal 17 47 32 17

Support Tea Party 64% 51% 64% 75%Neutral 24 30 27 19Oppose 10 17 8 5

Note: In Iowa and Nevada, voters may participate in the caucuses if they will be 18 years old by the general election date. Only voters registered with a party may participate in that party’s caucus. In New Hampshire, undeclared voters and voters registered with a party may vote in that party’s primary. In South Carolina, voters may vote in either party’s primary.Source: National Election Pool, a consortium of five news networks and the Associated Press, 2012.

Volume 12, Issue 1 • January 2016A M o n t h l y P o l l C o M P i l A t i o n

A M E R I C A N E N T E R P R I S E I N S T I T U T E1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org

IN THIS ISSUE: GOP Caucus and Primary Electorates (), Obama’s Legacy (Pages 2–8), Views about Banning Muslims (Pages 9–10)

www.aei.org

AEI, 1150 Seventeenth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2

The Obama Legacy: Early ReturnsAs President Obama begins the final year of his presidency, what do current polls tell us about how Americans will assess his legacy? Half now say Obama’s failures will overshadow his accomplishments, while 44 percent believe his accomplish-ments will outweigh his failures. In the following pages, we examine opinion of Obama on the issues that have featured most prominently during his tenure as president—foreign policy, the economy, health care, and race relations. Views about him are heavily influenced by partisan affiliation.

Q: In the long run, do you think the accomplishments of the _______ will outweigh its failures, or will the failures out-weigh the accomplishments?

Accomplishments will Failures will outweigh failures outweigh accomplishmentsObama administrationJanuary 2015 44% 50%January 2014 39 47January 2013 46 39January 2012 43 44

George W. Bush administrationDecember 2008 24% 64%January 2008 28 59January 2007 31 53January 2004 49 36

Bill Clinton administrationJanuary 2001 60% 27%January 2000 51 37August 1999 56 38January 1999 50 34September 1998 52 35

Ronald Reagan administration April–May 1987 46% 41%February 1987 52 38

Source: The Gallup Organization/Newsweek, February 1987; The Gallup Organization/Times Mirror, April–May 1987; Pew Research Cen-ter, latest that of January 2015.

Q: When Barack Obama finishes his second term as President next year, do you think . . . ?

National ----------Responses of----------- response Reps. Dems. Inds.He will be remembered as . . . One of the best presidents in US history 10% -- 20% 8%Above average 22 8% 36 20About average 28 18 30 31Below average 17 26 8 18One of the worst presidents 21 48 4 22

Note: Responses shown by party ID are among registered voters.Source: McClatchy-Marist Poll, July 2015.

(Continued on the next page)


Obama’s Overall Performance at Year EightNationally, the president’s approval rating hovers around 45 percent. His disapproval rating has been higher than his approval rating for almost all of the past two years in CNN/Opinion Research Corporation polls. Among Democratic reg-istered voters, his approval rating is a strong 85 percent, compared to 65 percent who approve of Democrats in Congress.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Note: In Pew’s December 2015 survey, 46 percent said they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President, while 49 percent said they disapprove. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of December 2015.

Q: In general, which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama presidency so far? Would you say you are . . . ?

National ----------Responses of----------- response Reps. Dems. Inds.Very/Somewhat satisfied with the Obama presidency so far 44% 7% 77% 43%Very/Somewhat disappointed 55 92 22 56

Note: When CBS/New York Times first asked this question in October 2010, 45 percent were very or somewhat satisfied, and 54 percent were somewhat or very disappointed. Source: CBS News/New York Times, November 2015.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job . . . ? --------——--Responses of-------——--- Democratic registered voters Approve of the job Disapprove Barack Obama is 85% doing as president 11% Democrats in Congress 65% are doing in office 28%

Note: Asked of registered voters. Among registered voters overall, 48 percent approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, and 48 percent disapprove. Thirty-eight percent approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, while 55 percent disapprove. Source: McClatchy-Marist Poll, October–November 2015.


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How Democrats View Obama’s PresidencyIt is no surprise that Democrats have maintained a favorable view of Obama’s presidency over the course of his tenure as president. Eighty-one percent of Democrats say they would consider his presidency a success, and 77 percent report being either very or somewhat satisfied with it. Republicans’ views of George W. Bush’s presidency and Democrats’ views of Clinton’s were more positive than Democrats’ current views of Obama’s.

Q: Since the start of 2009 when Barack Obama became president, in general, would you say . . . ?Q: Since the start of 2001 when George W. Bush became president, in general, would you say . . . ?Q: Since the start of 1993 when Bill Clinton became president, in general, would you say . . . ? National --------------------Responses of members of the president’s party-------------------- National response Would you say _______ has been . . . response A success A failure Barack Obama’s presidency 51% 79% July–August 2009^ 9% 37% 47 78 January 2010^ 16 48 45 74 January 2011^ 19 48 50 81 March 2015 16 47

George W. Bush’s presidency 56% 87% August 2001^* 8% 32% 83 99 January 2002^ -- 11 47 84 August 2005* 13 51 42 79 October 2005 19 55 46 90 January 2006* 8 52 40 86 August 2007* 12 57

Bill Clinton’s presidency 71% 92% January 1998 7% 25% 81 98 January 1999 2 16 68 94 August 2000 4 29

Note: Only the responses with publicly available party subgroup responses are shown. ^Question wording varied slightly. *Asked of a half sample. Source: Obama presidency: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of March 2015. Bush presidency: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2007; CNN/USA Today/The Gallup Organization, latest that of January 2006. Clinton presidency: CNN/USA Today/The Gallup Organization, January 1998 and August 2000; The Gallup Organization, January 1999.

Q: In general, which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama presidency so far?

National -------------------Responses of Democrats------------------- National response response Very/Somewhatsatisfied Very/Somewhatdisappointed 45% 78% October 2010 21% 54% 45 82 August 2012* 18 55 40 75 February 2014 24 59 41 72 September 2014 25 57 44 77 November 2015 22 55

Note: Only the responses with publicly available party subgroup responses are shown. *Asked of registered voters in August 2012.Source: CBS News, August 2012; CBS News/New York Times, latest that of November 2015.



Terrorism and Foreign Affairs: Declining ApprovalAs the graph below shows, approval of Obama’s handling of terrorism and, separately, foreign affairs, has declined over the course of his presidency. In June 2009, a majority (51 percent) said Obama’s approach to foreign policy was about right, but in December 2015, a majority (58 percent) said it was not tough enough.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Note: Includes some half samples. Source: The Gallup Organization and CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of November–December 2015.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Approve of the way Barack Obama is handling ISIS, the Islamic militant group that controls some areas of Iraq and Syria 33%Disapprove 64

Note: In Gallup’s November 2015 poll, 30 percent approved of the way Barack Obama is handling “The situation involving Islamic mili-tants, commonly known as ISIS, in Iraq and Syria,” and 64 percent disapproved.Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, December 2015.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Approve of the way Barack Obama is handling the threat of terrorism 37%Disapprove 57

Source: Pew Research Center, December 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ? December 2015 June 2009Barack Obama is too tough in his approach to foreign policy and national security issues 2% 2%Not tough enough 58 38About right 34 51

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2015.


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The Economy: Obama Has Yet to Benefit from the Slow Recovery Since September 2009, a majority has disapproved of Obama’s handling the economy, with 54 percent giving that response in a November 2015 Gallup poll. A Fox News question asked eight times since 2009 shows that registered voters are con-sistently divided about whether the Obama administration has made the economy better or worse. This assessment isn’t surprising in the context of Americans’ tenuous confidence in the economic recovery.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Note: In Pew’s December 2015 survey, 43 percent approved of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy, while 51 percent disap-proved.Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of November 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ?

------------–----------------–--––------------–--------–––----------Responses of registered voters---------------------------------––––––---------–-------------–----- The Obama administration has made the economy . . .

Better Worse Nodifference(vol.) 40% July 2009 32% 23% 40 January 2010 36 21 36 September 2010 47 12 34 July 2011 49 12 44 March 2012 42 10 37 July 2012 49 10 43 July 2013 44 7 42 July 2015 47 8

Source: Fox News, latest that of July 2015.


The State of the Economy: In an October 2015 Fox News poll, 34 percent of registered voters said the economy has not really recovered at all from the 2008 recession, and 44 percent said it has only somewhat recovered. Nineteen percent said it has mostly recovered, and only 2 percent completely recovered. In the September– October 2015 Public Religion Research Institute survey, 72 percent nationally said the economy is still in a reces-sion, while 27 percent said the recession is over.

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Health Care: A Burden or Boon for the President?Opinion of the Affordable Care Act has generally been more unfavorable than favorable since its passage in 2010, and a majority have ususally disapproved of the way Obama is handling health care policy. Nevertheless, Americans remain divided over how to move forward. Twenty-two percent in a recent Kaiser poll said they would like to see Congress expand the law, while 35 percent said Congress should repeal it entirely.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of November 2015.

Q: What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care law? National ----------Responses of----------- response Reps. Dems. Inds.Expand what the law does 22% 8% 36% 17%Move forward with implementing the law as is 18 4 33 16Scale back what the law does 14 17 10 17Repeal the entire law 35 62 10 39

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, December 2015.


In November 2015, Gallup noted that Americans’ views of health care in the US and of their own health care have remained largely unchanged since the passage of the Affordable Care Act. While people are still dissatisfied with the cost of health care overall, they remain relatively satisfied with the quality of care they receive and with their coverage.

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AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORSKarlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow.

Editors: Heather Sims, Eleanor O’Neil. Design: Claude Aubert.

The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll Databank, and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author[s].


Race Relations: Hope Without Change?A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll from January 2009 shows that Americans had high hopes for the Obama presidency in terms of race relations. A plurality (43 percent) now say they have gotten worse since Obama became presi-dent. In a separate question, 45 percent of whites and 50 percent of blacks say Obama’s presidency has not had much effect on bringing whites and blacks closer together.

Q: Thinking specifically about the effect of Barack Obama’s (2008) election as president on relations between blacks and whites in this country, do you think . . . ?

---------------------------------------–----------–––-----------2009------------------------–---------–––--------------------------- Whites Blacks TotalHis election is the start of a new era of better race relations 25% 49% 28%His election will result in some improvement in race relations but not start a new era 44 32 44His election will create no real change in race relations in this country 24 14 21His election will make race relations worse 6 5 6

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, January 2009.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Whites Blacks TotalApprove of the way Barack Obama is handling race relations 2009 56% 93% 61% 2015 48 84 55

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of June 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ? ---------------------------–----------------------–––-----------2015-----------------------–---------–––--------------------------- Whites Blacks TotalRelations between blacks and whites in the US have gotten . . .Better since Barack Obama became president 17% 33% 20%Worse 47 35 43Stayed the same 35 32 36

Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, June 2015.

Q: Has Barack Obama’s presidency . . . ?

---------------------------–----------------------–––-----------2015-----------------------–---------–––--------------------------- Whites Blacks TotalBrought blacks and whites closer together 11% 30% 15%Pushed blacks and whites further apart 41 15 34Has not had much effect one way or the other 45 50 47

Source: CBS News/New York Times, July 2015.


Trump’s Muslim Ban: What People Really Think Most polls show that around 60 percent of Americans oppose a ban on Muslims entering the US, though there are parti-san divisions. Support is slightly higher for a temporary than complete ban, but both are minority opinions. Almost half (46 percent) think a ban would have no effect on the United States’ safety from terrorism.

A mid-December Fox News question asked of registered voters found 55 percent (including 45 percent of registered Democrats) in favor of “temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entering the US until government officials can say with confidence they can identify those who are coming here to cause the country harm.”

Q: Recently, Donald Trump has called for a total and complete shutdown for any Muslim being allowed to enter the United States. Do you . . . ? ----------Responses of---------- National response Reps. Dems. Inds.Strongly/Somewhat favor Trump’s proposal 25% 42% 11% 30%Somewhat/Strongly oppose 57 36 74 55

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, December 2015.

Q: Do you think . . . ? ----------Responses of---------- National response Reps. Dems. Inds.The US should temporarily ban Muslims from other countries from entering the United States 36% 54% 23% 35%Should not 58 38 73 59

Source: CBS News, December 2015.

Q: Trump has proposed banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entering the United States for the time being. He says this would improve security against terrorism. Others say security would not be improved, and it’s wrong to bar people from the United States because of their religion. What’s your opinion? Would you . . . ?

----------Responses of---------- National response Reps. Dems. Inds.Strongly/somewhat support a ban on Muslims entering the United States 36% 59% 15% 38%Somewhat/Strongly think this would be the wrong thing to do 60 38 82 58

Source: ABC News/Washington Post, December 2015.

Q: If Muslims are temporarily banned from entering the US, do you think . . . ?

----------Responses of---------- National response Reps. Dems. Inds.The US will be safer from terrorism 28% 45% 14% 27%Less safe 19 15 27 17The ban will have no effect on the United States’ safety from terrorism 46 35 52 49




Muslims and IslamHalf of Americans say they do not know any Muslims. Around 60 percent say they have a favorable opinion of them. Responses to a recent Pew Research Center question about whether the Islamic religion is more likely than other religions to encourage violence among its believers or whether it does not encourage violence more than others shows the public split, 46 to 45 percent. In a differently worded question from ABC News/Washington Post, a majority (54 percent) say “mainstream Islam is a peaceful religion.”

Q: Do you . . . ?

----------Responses of---------- National response Reps. Dems. Inds.Personally know someone who is Muslim; is a close friend 18% 13% 23% 18%Personally know someone who is Muslim; is not a close friend 30 36 27 29I am or my family is Muslim 1 -- 2 1Do not know any Muslims 50 51 48 51


Q: Is your overall opinion of Muslims . . . ?

August June December 2015* 2010* 2009 Very/Mostly favorable 59% 53% 52%Mostly/Very unfavorable 29 28 30Not sure 12 19 18

Note: *Asked of a half sample.Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, latest that of December 2015.

Q: Which statement comes closer to your own views even if neither is exactly right?

The Islamic religion is more likely than others to encourage violence among its believers 46%The Islamic religion does not encourage violence more than others 45

Source: Pew Research Center, December 2015.

Q: Every religion has mainstream beliefs, and also fringe elements or extremists. Thinking of mainstream Islam, do you think . . . ?

Mainstream Islam encourages violence against non-Muslims 28%Mainstream Islam is a peaceful religion 54

Source: ABC News/Washington Post, December 2015.

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political report–an early look: primary season and obama’s legacy

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