Political Environment and Congressional Breakdown ChartsNovember 14, 2017

Presidential Job Approval: Gallup PollingGallup Weekly Presidential Job Approval Ratings: YTD

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”

56%Disapprove

38%Approve

-18%Net

Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings, November 13, 2017

30

40

50

60

Jan

20-2

9, 2

017

Jan

30-F

eb 5

Feb

6-12

Feb

13-19

Feb

20-2

6Fe

b 27

-Mar

5M

ar 6

-12M

ar 13

-19M

ar 2

0-26

Mar

27-

Apr 2

Apr 3

-9Ap

r 10-

16Ap

r 17-

23Ap

r 24-

30M

ay 1-

7M

ay 8

-14M

ay 15

-21

May

22-

28M

ay 2

9-Ju

n 4

Jun

5-11

Jun

12-18

Jun

19-2

5Ju

n 26

-Jul

2Ju

l 3-9

Jul 1

0-16

Jul 1

7-23

Jul 2

4-30

Jul 3

1-Aug

6Au

g 7-

13Au

g 14

-20

Aug

21-2

7Au

g 28

-Sep

3Se

p 4-

10Se

p 11-

17Se

p 18

-24

Sep

25-O

ct 1

Oct

2-8

Oct

9-15

Oct

16-2

2O

ct 2

3-29

Oct

30-

Nov

5N

ov 6

-12

Approve Disapprove Trump 2016 Win Percentage (46.1%)

-26

-13

0

Jan

20-2

9, 2

017

Jan

30-F

eb 5

Feb

6-12

Feb

13-19

Feb

20-2

6Fe

b 27

-Mar

5M

ar 6

-12M

ar 13

-19M

ar 2

0-26

Mar

27-

Apr 2

Apr 3

-9Ap

r 10-

16Ap

r 17-

23Ap

r 24-

30M

ay 1-

7M

ay 8

-14M

ay 15

-21

May

22-

28M

ay 2

9-Ju

n 4

Jun

5-11

Jun

12-18

Jun

19-2

5Ju

n 26

-Jul

2Ju

l 3-9

Jul 1

0-16

Jul 1

7-23

Jul 2

4-30

Jul 3

1-Aug

6Au

g 7-

13Au

g 14

-20

Aug

21-2

7Au

g 28

-Sep

3Se

p 4-

10Se

p 11-

17Se

p 18

-24

Sep

25-O

ct 1

Oct

2-8

Oct

9-15

Oct

16-2

2O

ct 2

3-29

Oct

30-

Nov

5N

ov 6

-12

Net (% Approval - % Disapproval)

Gallup Presidential Job Approval by PartyGallup Weekly Presidential Job Approval Ratings: YTD

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”

82%Republican Approval

33%Independent Approval

8%Democratic Approval

33%Independent Approval

Zoom on Independents

Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings, November 13, 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan

20-2

9, 2

017

Jan

30-F

eb 5

Feb

6-12

Feb

13-19

Feb

20-2

6Fe

b 27

-Mar

5M

ar 6

-12M

ar 13

-19M

ar 2

0-26

Mar

27-

Apr 2

Apr 3

-9Ap

r 10-

16Ap

r 17-

23Ap

r 24-

30M

ay 1-

7M

ay 8

-14M

ay 15

-21

May

22-

28M

ay 2

9-Ju

n 4

Jun

5-11

Jun

12-18

Jun

19-2

5Ju

n 26

-Jul

2Ju

l 3-9

Jul 1

0-16

Jul 1

7-23

Jul 2

4-30

Jul 3

1-Aug

6Au

g 7-

13Au

g 14

-20

Aug

21-2

7Au

g 28

-Sep

3Se

p 4-

10Se

p 11-

17Se

p 18

-24

Sep

25-O

ct 1

Oct

2-8

Oct

9-15

Oct

16-2

2O

ct 2

3-29

Oct

30-

Nov

5N

ov 6

-12

Republicans Independents Democrats

28

35

42

Jan

20-2

9, 2

017

Jan

30-F

eb 5

Feb

6-12

Feb

13-19

Feb

20-2

6Fe

b 27

-Mar

5M

ar 6

-12M

ar 13

-19M

ar 2

0-26

Mar

27-

Apr 2

Apr 3

-9Ap

r 10-

16Ap

r 17-

23Ap

r 24-

30M

ay 1-

7M

ay 8

-14M

ay 15

-21

May

22-

28M

ay 2

9-Ju

n 4

Jun

5-11

Jun

12-18

Jun

19-2

5Ju

n 26

-Jul

2Ju

l 3-9

Jul 1

0-16

Jul 1

7-23

Jul 2

4-30

Jul 3

1-Aug

6Au

g 7-

13Au

g 14

-20

Aug

21-2

7Au

g 28

-Sep

3Se

p 4-

10Se

p 11-

17Se

p 18

-24

Sep

25-O

ct 1

Oct

2-8

Oct

9-15

Oct

16-2

2O

ct 2

3-29

Oct

30-

Nov

5N

ov 6

-12

0

49

98

Apr-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Nov-17

Approve Strongly Approve SomewhatDisapprove Somewhat Disapprove Strongly

0

24.5

49

73.5

98

Jan-17 Mar-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17

Approve Strongly Approve ModeratelyDisapprove Moderately Disapprove Strongly

0

45

90

Jun-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17

Strongly Approve Somewhat ApproveSomewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove

0

47.5

95

Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17

Strongly Approve Somewhat ApproveSomewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove

Presidential Job Approval: Other Polls to WatchIntensity Polling

57%Total Disapprove

Fox NewsOctober 22-24, 2017 | 1,017 Registed Voters

58%Total Disapprove

NBC/Wall Street JournalOctober 23-26, 2017 | 900 Adults

CNNOctober2-5 2017 | 1,021 Adults

57%Total Disapprove

37%Total Approve

ABC-Washington PostOctober 29 - November 1, 2017 | 1,005 Adults

38%Total Approve

59%Total Disapprove

37%Total Approve

38%Total Approve

49%

9%

16%

22%

49%

8%

12%

25%

48%

9%

10%

25%

50%

8%

12%

25%

Presidential Job Approval vs. Midterm Results Senate and House Midterm Seat Losses Since 1966

Current Trump Approval

38%Gallup November 6-12, 2017

Job Approval Avg. Change House Avg. Change Senate

Over 60% +3 Seats -2 Seats

50%-60% -12 Seats - 1 Seat

Under 50% -40 Seats - 5 Seats

Gallup Presidential Approval Ratings, November 13, 2017

-70

0

70

1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

House Seats Presidential Approval

42%45%

39%

63%66%

46%

58%

63%

43%

52%

47%

57%

49%

-13

-63

-30

85

-54

-8-5

-26

-15

-48

-12

-48

49%

57%

47%

52%

43%

63%

58%

46%

66%63%

39%

45%42%

Direction of the CountryNBC News/Wall Street Journal: Right Direction/Wrong Track Polling

59%Off on the wrong track

34%Headed in the right direction

-25%Net

“All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?”

NBC/WSJ, April 17-20, 2017

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Jan

2012

Apr 2

012

Jun

2012

Aug

2012

Sep

2012

Nov

201

2

Jan

2013

Apr 2

013

Jul 2

013

Oct

201

3

Dec

201

3

Mar

201

4

Jun

2014

Sep

2014

Oct

201

4

Dec

201

4

Mar

ch 2

015

June

201

5

Sept

201

5

Oct

201

5

Jan

2016

June

201

6

Aug

2016

Oct

201

6

Jan

2017

Right Direction Undecided Wrong Track

-75

-50

-25

0

Jan

2012

Apr 2

012

Jun

2012

Aug

2012

Sep

2012

Nov

201

2

Jan

2013

Apr 2

013

Jul 2

013

Oct

201

3

Dec

201

3

Mar

201

4

Jun

2014

Sep

2014

Oct

201

4

Dec

201

4

Mar

ch 2

015

June

201

5

Sept

201

5

Oct

201

5

Jan

2016

June

201

6

Aug

2016

Oct

201

6

Jan

2017

Net (% Right Direction - % Wrong Direction)

Hart Research Associates (D)Public Opinion Stratagies (R)

Party IdentificationGallup Polling: Party Affiliation

24%Republicans

42%Independents

31%Democrats

-7%Net

“In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?”

-15

10

2004

Jan

2004

Mar

2004

May

2004

Aug

2004

Oct

2005

Jan

2005

Mar

2005

May

2005

Jul

2005

Sep

2005

Nov

2006

Jan

2006

Mar

2006

Jun

2006

Aug

2006

Nov

2007

Feb

2007

May

2007

Sep

2007

Dec

2008

Feb

2008

May

2008

Sep

2008

Nov

2009

Mar

2009

Jul

2009

Dec

2010

May

2010

Sep

2010

Nov

2011

Apr

2011

Aug

2012

Jan

2012

Jun

2012

Nov

2013

Jan

2013

Jul

2014

Feb

2014

Aug

2015

Jan

2015

Aug

2016

Feb

2016

Jul

2016

Dec

2017

Jul

Net (% Republican - % Democrat)

0

25

50

75

100

2004

Jan

2004

Mar

2004

May

2004

Aug

2004

Oct

2005

Jan

2005

Mar

2005

May

2005

Jul

2005

Sep

2005

Nov

2006

Jan

2006

Mar

2006

Jun

2006

Aug

2006

Nov

2007

Feb

2007

May

2007

Sep

2007

Dec

2008

Feb

2008

May

2008

Sep

2008

Nov

2009

Mar

2009

Jul

2009

Dec

2010

May

2010

Sep

2010

Nov

2011

Apr

2011

Aug

2012

Jan

2012

Jun

2012

Nov

2013

Jan

2013

Jul

2014

Feb

2014

Aug

2015

Jan

2015

Aug

2016

Feb

2016

Jul

2016

Dec

2017

Jul

Republicans Independent Democrats

Gallup Party Affiliation, October, 2017

c+51+40Party Favorable/Unfavorable

Fox

Oct 22-24, 20171,005 Registered Voters

51%

40%

Democrats +9c+41+29CNN

September 17-20, 20171,056 Adults

41%

29%

Democrats +12c+32+29NBC/WSJ

August 5-8, 20171,200 Adults

34%

29%

Democrats +3c+45+40Pew April 5-8, 2017 1,501 Adults

45%

40%

Democrats +5c+38+38Quinnipiac

March 1-3, 20171,283 Registered Voters

38%

38%

Republicans +0

Democratic % Favorable

Republican % Favorable

*NBC asks Positive/Negative

The Economy: Consumer Confidence Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment

125.9ConsumerConfidence

97.8ConsumerSentiment

II. 1980 – Present

I. Last six years (2010 – Present)

Consumer Confidence Survey® October 2017Consumer Sentiment November 2017

20

55

90

125

160

Jan

'80

Oct

'80

July

'81

Apr '

82Ja

n '8

3O

ct '8

3Ju

ly '8

4Ap

r '85

Jan

'86

Oct

'86

July

'87

Apr '

88Ja

n '8

9O

ct '8

9Ju

ly '9

0Ap

r '91

Jan

'92

Oct

'92

July

'93

Apr '

94Ja

n '9

5O

ct '9

5Ju

ly '9

6Ap

r '97

Jan

'98

Oct

'98

July

'99

Apr '

00Ja

n '0

1O

ct '0

1Ju

ly '0

2Ap

r '03

Jan

'04

Oct

'04

July

'05

Apr '

06Ja

n '0

7O

ct '0

7Ju

ly '0

8Ap

r '09

Jan

'10O

ct '1

0Ju

ly '1

1Ap

r '12

Jan

'13O

ct '1

3Ju

ly '1

4Ju

ly '1

5Ju

ne '1

6M

ar '1

7

25

50

75

100

125

Jan

'10M

ar '1

0M

ay '1

0Ju

ly '1

0Se

pt '1

0N

ov '1

0Ja

n '11

Mar

'11

May

'11

July

'11

Sept

'11

Nov

'11

Jan

'12M

ar '1

2M

ay '1

2Ju

ly '1

2Se

pt '1

2N

ov '1

2Ja

n '13

Mar

'13

May

'13

July

'13

Sept

'13

Nov

'13

Jan

'14M

ar '1

4M

ay '1

4Ju

ly '1

4Se

pt '1

4N

ov '1

4Ja

n '15

Mar

'15

May

'15

Sept

'15

Nov

'15

Jan

'16M

ar '1

6M

ay '1

6Ju

ly '1

6Se

pt '1

6N

ov '1

6Ja

n '17

Mar

'17

May

'17

July

'17

Sept

’ 17

Nov

’ 17

Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceUniversity of Michigan/Thompson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment

Obamacare: Tracking Public AttitudesThe Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll

“As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally (favorable) or generally (unfavorable) opinion of it?” (Rotated - Participants then asked to choose between very/somewhat favorable/unfavorable)”

40%Total Negative

51%Total Positive

+11%Net

Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: October 2017

0

25

50

75

100

03/13

06/13

09/13 11/13

01/14

03/14

05/14

07/14

10/14

12/14

03/15

06/0

9/15

08/15

10/15

12/15

02/16

04/16

07/16

09/16 11/16

02/17

04/17

05/17

07/17

09/17

Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Don’t know/Refused Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable

-20

-8.333

3.333

15

03/13

06/13

09/13 11/13

01/14

03/14

05/14

07/14

10/14

12/14

03/15

06/0

9/15

08/15

10/15

12/15

02/16

04/16

07/16

09/16 11/16

02/17

04/17

05/17

07/17

09/17

Net (% Positive - % Negative)

Tota

l

0 100

43516461223

Democrat-Held Seats Not on BallotSolid Democrat Likely DemocratLean DemocratToss UpLean Republican Likely RepublicanSolid Republican Republican Held Seats Not on Ballot

“What it Takes:” 2018 Senate MathCan Democrats take the Senate Majority in 2018?

Current Senate Breakdown by Party

Cook Political Report Senate Math for 2018

Bottom Line: Democrats need at least three seats to take the Senate. To do that they need to hold all 25 of their

seats up for reelection and win the three Republican seats in the Toss Up column.

Tota

l

0 100

5248

Democrats Republicans

Two Independents - King (ME) and Sanders (VT) caucus with the Democrats

Last Ratings Change: October 27, 2017

“What it Takes:” 2018 House MathCan Democrats take the House in 2018?

Current House Breakdown by Party

Cook Political Report House Math for 2018

One Republican vacancies in PA-18

Last Ratings Change: October 13, 2017

Tota

l

0 435

179252316711174

Solid DemocratLikely DemocratLean DemocratToss UpLean Republican Likely RepublicanSolid Republican

Bottom Line: Democrats need at least 24 seats. To do that they need win

all seats in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic columns. They also need to win all 16 seats in Toss Up and 12 of the

23 seats in Lean Republican.

Tota

l

0 108.75 217.5 326.25 435

240194

Democrats Republicans