policymakers - key messages on climate change: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

27
THE WORKING GROUP II CONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC'S FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT

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Page 1: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

THE WORKING GROUP IICONTRIBUTION TO THE IPCC'S FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT

Page 2: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/

Page 3: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014:

IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

Page 4: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSES

SocioeconomicPathways

Adaptation and Mitigation Actions

Governance

CLIMATE

NaturalVariability

AnthropogenicClimate Change

RISKHazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

of climate related impacts

Page 5: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

A CHANGING WORLD

WIDESPREADOBSERVED IMPACTS

Page 6: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

A CHANGING WORLD

WIDESPREADOBSERVED IMPACTS

Page 7: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and

human systems on all continents and across the oceans.

Page 8: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

ALREADY OCCURING

ADAPTATION IS

Page 9: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

ALREADY OCCURING

ADAPTATION IS

Page 10: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS

INCREASE

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Page 11: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts.

Page 12: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

AROUND THE WORLD

Differences in vulnerability and exposure arise from non-climatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities often produced by uneven development processes. These differences shape differential risks from climate change.

VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE

Page 13: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/

Page 14: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

MANY GLOBAL RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ARE CONCENTRATED IN URBAN AREAS…

Page 15: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

In 2016 54.5 % of the world’s population lived in urban areas. By 2050 a further 2.5 billion people will be added to the world’s urban population, with nearly 90% of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa.

Most of the world’s economy and assets: 600 cities account for 60% of the world’s GDP

Makes cities vulnerable to climate change risks – flood, drought, extreme heat (UHI) and precipitation with food security, human health and infrastructural impacts and losses…

Urban areas concentrate people and assets:

Page 16: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

1950

Page 17: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

2025

Page 18: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Very large development and infrastructure deficits Most of the world’s urban population is in low- and

middle-income developing countries

Loss of ecological infrastructure

A billion living in informal settlements

Underdevelopment makes cities vulnerable regardless of the type of risk:

Page 19: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Unique global opportunity: Annual urban infrastructure spend from $10 trillion to more than $20 trillion by 2025, majority spent in urban centers in emerging economies –opportunity of aging infrastructure.

“Half of what will be the built environment of 2030 does not exist today”. Arthur C. Nelson Brookings Institute

Page 20: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

A MORE VIBRANT WORLD

Page 21: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Climate change

adaptation

Climate change

mitigation

Disaster risk reduction

The urban agendas

Poverty reduction and

universal provision of

services*

* Following sustainable development principles

FOCUS ON INTEGRATED DECISION-MAKING TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BENEFITS AND MANAGE TRADE-OFFS

Page 22: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Poverty reduction and universal provision of services

Climate change adaptation

Disaster risk reduction

The urban agendas

Climate change mitigation

More limited overlap with climate change mitigation – as consequences of investments in only emerge over

time

Large overlaps especially in low-and lower-middle income nations

Page 23: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Climate change mitigation

Poverty reduction and universal provision of services

Climate change

adaptation

Disaster risk reduction

• In long-term ‘dangerous’ climate change has profound influence on the other three

• Date when even strong adaptation cannot reduce risks without mitigation

• Transformative adaptationThe urban agendas

Page 24: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

KEY ROLE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT:

Need to plan and manage much of the transformative adaptation needed

Page 25: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Unique policy competence

Engagement with local stakeholders

Tap/influence private and household investment

Economies of scale

Integrate land use and infrastructure planning to address adaptation and mitigation needs in a pro-poor and ecologically sustainable manner

Urban climate governance advantage

Local governments do not have all the right policy levers nor the resources to get the job done

Page 26: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

• Appropriate mandates – to avoid hitting resource or policy ‘glass ceiling’.

• Local powers for good planning and managing land use change

• Alignment across national, sub-national, local policies• Access to locally relevant, timely climate data and

assessment tools, recognize and work with uncertainty • Iterative decision-making including monitoring and

design for continuous learning• Leadership matters!

Effective urban climate risk governance

Page 27: Policymakers - key messages on climate change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Thank you

Dr Debra RobertsIPCC Co-Chair WGII AR6

Sustainable and Resilient Cities Initiatives Unit Ethekwini MunicipalityDurban, South Africa

[email protected]