Policy modelling for small areasPresentation to Department of Planning and Community Development, VictoriaPresenter: Robert TantonPosition: Research Director, Social Inclusion and Small Area Modelling teamDate: 31 July 2009

FormatIntroduction to the Social Inclusion and Small Area Modelling (SISAM) team at NATSEMEvidence based policyProjections of populations for small areas (service delivery)Cost/Benefit analysis of policy modelling

Other presentations todayHousingSocial Exclusion

Introduction to SISAMNew team formed this yearConcentrate on social inclusion and small area modelling (spatial microsimulation)Robert Tanton Research DirectorJustine McNamara Children and Families teamWWW.NATSEM.CANBERRA.EDU.AU/SISAMLinks to all papers, online maps, etc

What does SISAM do?

Evidence based policyThe Governments agenda for the APSToday I want to discuss seven elements of the Governments vision for the future Australian public service:3) Developing evidence-based policy making processes as part of a robust culture of policy contestability(Kevin Rudd, Address to Heads of Agencies and Members of Senior Executive Service, 30 April 2008)

Limits to evidence based policyPart of a complex processAlso consider politics, public mood and opinions but policy modelling will give some idea as to cost of policies, who benefits, and can affect public mood and opinionEvidence based policy? Or evidence informing policy?Is policy based purely on evidence? Or should evidence inform policy?

Research informing policySandra Nutley (Professor of Public Management, University of St Andrews):if research is used to inform policy, what works best is interactive and ongoing processes and relationships between policymakers and researchersAt a practical level, round-tables or workshops are seen as a cost effective, safe haven way of sharing ideas, analyses or perspectives.Meredith Edwards, Research shouldnt stop at a report, The Public Sector Informant, p. 28

Models NATSEM has to study service provision and the effects of policy changeSpatialMSM project6 year grant with 4 StatesDeveloping a model to estimate and project populations requiring certain servicesLinks microsimulation model of tax/transfers with spatial microsimulationPolicy modellingImpacts of policies in 2 waysModel policy change before happensGiven current policies, projections of groups requiring service provision

Modelling policies not yet implementedSmall area impacts ofCommonwealth Governments change to the single age pension was implemented after this paper writtenChanges to FTB taper ratesWho affected by stimulus package (ie, which groups and what areas got most) impact of policy post-implementation

Where old singles benefited from pension increase

Where and who got most from stimulus package99% of sole parent families gained the most an average of $46.81 per week95% of married couples with dependants gained an average of $46.30 per week56% of married couples with no dependants gained an average of $26.74 per week55% of single persons gained an average of $17.31 per week

Effect of stimulus package by area

Forecasts of groups requiring service provisionIdentify where services needed in futureSmall area forecasts of families with children and both parents workingSmall area forecasts of aged single people

Estimated percentage growth in number of 3 4 year old children with all parents working, 2006 2027, Melbourne

Estimated percentage growth in number of people aged 70+ living alone, 2006 2027, Melbourne

Later this yearProjections of wealthMainly home ownership and superannuation

FundingModel developed with Australian Research Council and State partners (Vic, NSW, Qld, ACT)Now a mature and tested modelCan be used for commissioned research

FutureCollaborations with StatesWork with States to model different policies or client groupsProvide results in focus groups to talk through resultsWhich client groups cost most in future?CostsWhen modelling conducted, doesnt cost much more to do for one State compared to all StatesCollaborative costing model with all States?Cost about $60,000 for research, written report and focus groups - split between a number of States

Cost/Benefit analysisHow much does a policy with unintended consequences cost?Making things much worse for low income families compared to high income families was this intended?Making thing worse for different areas will rural areas be affected worse? Or inner city? Was this intended?

www.natsem.canberra.edu.auQuestions/Comments/Discussion

Main things are inform policy and inform service provisionSpent 5 years in policy environment in Canberra, so know how difficult balancing these tensions is. However, the advantage of modelling a policy is that you can put the effects out there, and measure public reaction to it and who it affects. This is then measured through engagement and consultation, which leads to my next slideStarted off talking broadly about policy analysis and how results are communicated, and I think we can do better here; what do we have that can inform policy? This wasnt done under RD grant; done under Opp and Disad, but showcases what can be doneCan be provided as online mapsTie together our policy modelling and vision to influence policy in future using collaborations with States