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Policy Issues in US Policy Issues in US Corrections: The Corrections: The

California California TemplateTemplate

Llad PhillipsLlad PhillipsUniversity of California Santa BarbaraUniversity of California Santa Barbara

To be presented at Oxford Round TableTo be presented at Oxford Round TableMarch 27, 2006March 27, 2006

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The IssueThe Issue

• The high rate of imprisonment in the The high rate of imprisonment in the United StatesUnited States– Why did it not fall when the crime rate Why did it not fall when the crime rate

came down?came down?

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The AnalysisThe Analysis

• California exhibits the same pattern: California exhibits the same pattern: crime rates falling but imprisonment crime rates falling but imprisonment rates staying highrates staying high– California accounts for about one eighth California accounts for about one eighth

of all prisoners under state jurisdiction of all prisoners under state jurisdiction in the USin the US

– California has extensive historical data California has extensive historical data that describes the operation of the that describes the operation of the correctional system over timecorrectional system over time

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The StoryThe Story• Prison system staffing responded to Prison system staffing responded to

a higher inflow of new felons a higher inflow of new felons committed to prison from court.committed to prison from court.

• Parole staffing lagged behind.Parole staffing lagged behind.– The higher caseload for parole officers The higher caseload for parole officers

motivated them to return a higher motivated them to return a higher fraction of parolees to prisonfraction of parolees to prison

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Figure 1: Per Capita Crime Rates and Imprisonment Rates, California and US

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Rat

e

CA Crime Index Per Capita

CA Prisoners Per Capita

FBI Crime Index Per Capita, US

US Prisoners Per Capita

The Phenomenon, P. 2The Phenomenon, P. 2

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Another ViewAnother ViewCalifornia Prisoners Per Hundred Californai Index Offenses, 1952-2004

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Nu

mb

er

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National Crime Victimization National Crime Victimization Survey, 2004Survey, 2004

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Conceptual Framework, Conceptual Framework, p. 4p. 4

Prisoners163,939

Discharged & Died42,483Felons Newly

Admitted fromCourt46,798

Felon FirstReleases toParole58,994

FelonsRe-paroled55,866

Felon Parole ViolatorsReturned to Custody: 58,712

Parolees113,768

Discharges & Deaths4,324

Escapes122

Parolees At Large19,056

Absconded40,758

Felon Parole Violators with a New Term 17,842

Reinstated32,090

Figure 2: Schematic of Prison & Parole Stocks and Flows: 2004

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Model of CJS, Perfect Model of CJS, Perfect EfficiencyEfficiency

No Revolving DoorNo Revolving Door

California Population

Felon New Admissions from Court Per Capita

Prison Population;Time in Prison Before

First Release

Parole Population;Time on Parole Before

DischargeDischarges;

1/Total Time

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Stocks and Flows, p. 5Stocks and Flows, p. 5Prisoners Plus ParoleesPrisoners Plus Parolees

• Outflow from CJS(t) = kOutflow from CJS(t) = kCJSCJS*[Prisoners+ *[Prisoners+ Parolees](t-1)Parolees](t-1)– Total Time in CJS = (1/kTotal Time in CJS = (1/kCJSCJS)* = [Pris. + )* = [Pris. +

Par.]/DischargesPar.]/Discharges

• Equilibrium: Equilibrium: – Outflow of Discharges = Inflow of New Outflow of Discharges = Inflow of New

AdmissionsAdmissions

– Total Time in CJS = (1/kTotal Time in CJS = (1/kCJSCJS)* =[Pris. + )* =[Pris. + Par.]/New AdmitsPar.]/New Admits

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Stocks and Flows, p. 5Stocks and Flows, p. 5Prisoners Prisoners

• Outflow from Prison(t) = kOutflow from Prison(t) = kPRISPRIS *Prisoners(t-1)*Prisoners(t-1)– Time in Prison = 1/kTime in Prison = 1/kPRISPRIS = =

Outflow/PrisonersOutflow/Prisoners

• Equilibrium: outflow = inflowEquilibrium: outflow = inflow– Time in Prison = 1/kTime in Prison = 1/kPRISPRIS = =

Inflow/PrisonersInflow/Prisoners

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Model of CJS, Model of CJS, InefficiencyInefficiency

California Population

Felon New Admissions from Court Per Capita

Prison Population;Time in Prison Before

First Release

Parole Population;Time on Parole Before

DischargeDischarges;

1/Total Time

Probability of Moving from CA Pop. To CJS = Felon New Admissions Per Capita

Probability of Moving from CJS to CA Pop. = 1/Total Time

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Time in Prison, p. 9Time in Prison, p. 9Figure 3: Years Served in Prison, Observed Compared to Estimated

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ye

ars

Prisoners/Inflow

Reported Mean

Prisoners/Outflow

Reported Median, Men

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Creation of the Revolving Creation of the Revolving Door, p. 11Door, p. 11

Figure 4: Number of Felons Flowing Into California Prisons By Source

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Nu

mb

er

Felons Newly Admitted FromCourt

Parole Violators With A newTerm

Parole Violators Returned ToCustody

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Deteriorating Performance Deteriorating Performance of the California Parole of the California Parole

System, p.12System, p.12• Parole Violators Returned to Parole Violators Returned to

Custody, PVRTCCustody, PVRTC• Parolees Absconding from Parolees Absconding from

SupervisionSupervision• Parolees At Large, PALParolees At Large, PAL• Shorter Time on ParoleShorter Time on Parole

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Time On ParoleTime On ParoleYears Served On Parole

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Yea

rs

Reported Mean

Parolees/Outflow

Reported Median, Men

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Absconding from Parole as Percent of Total Outflow from Parole, 1987-2004

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Year

Per

cen

t

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What Caused the What Caused the Deteriorating Performance Deteriorating Performance

of the Parole System?of the Parole System?

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Caseloads: Prison Vs. Caseloads: Prison Vs. Parole, p.13Parole, p.13

Figure 5: Caseloads In California Corrections: Parole Vs. Prison

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Year

Rat

e

Parolees per Parole Officer

Prisoners Per CorrectionalOfficer

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What Caused Such High What Caused Such High Prison and Parole Prison and Parole

Populations?, p. 15Populations?, p. 15• The Minimal (Prison + Parole) PopulationThe Minimal (Prison + Parole) Population

– Perfect efficiency: no revolving doorPerfect efficiency: no revolving door

• (Prison + Parole) Pop. = (t(Prison + Parole) Pop. = (tPRIS + tPAR ) * New Admits

• ? (2004) = (1.67 + 1.39) * 46,812• Prisoners and Parolees (est. 2004) = 143, 245• Prisoners & Parolees (obs. ‘04) = 162,352 +

110,130• = 272,482• Ratio of Actual/Minimal = 1.90

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Another View: Estimated Another View: Estimated Time Spent in California Time Spent in California

CorrectionsCorrections• Turning the stock/flow relation aroundTurning the stock/flow relation around• Estimated total time = (Prisoners + Estimated total time = (Prisoners +

Parolees)/New AdmitsParolees)/New Admits– Total time includes spins inside the revolving Total time includes spins inside the revolving

doordoor

• Estimated total time = (Prisoners + Estimated total time = (Prisoners + Parolees)/(Discharges From Parole + Parolees)/(Discharges From Parole + Deaths)Deaths)

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Total Years Spent In Corrections, 1960-2004

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Ye

ars

Est. Total Time: Stocks/Admits

Est. Total Time: Stocks/Discharges &Deaths

Efficient Total Time, Median, Men

Indeterminate Sentence Law

Determinate Sentencing Law

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Where Does the Increase in the StocksWhere Does the Increase in the StocksCome From? Inflow or System Come From? Inflow or System

Inefficiency? Inefficiency? [Prisoners + Parolees = New [Prisoners + Parolees = New

Admits*Total Time]Admits*Total Time]YearYear Prisoners Prisoners

+ + Parolees Parolees p.c.p.c.

New New Admits Admits p.c.p.c.

Total Total Time Time (years)(years)

20042004 0.007540.00754 0.0012710.001271 5.95.9

19801980 0.001810.00181 0.0004770.000477 3.43.4

ratioratio 4.17 4.17 ~~ 2.662.66 1.71.7

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Policy?Policy?

Source: California Department of Corrections, Historical Trends ….1978-1998, www.corr.ca.gov

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Prisoners + Parolees = New Prisoners + Parolees = New Admits*Total TimeAdmits*Total Time

YearYear Prisoners Prisoners + + Parolees Parolees p.c.p.c.

New New Admits Admits p.c.p.c.

Total Total Time Time (years)(years)

20042004 0.007540.00754 0.0012710.001271 5.95.9

19801980 0.001810.00181 0.0004770.000477 3.43.4

ratioratio 4.17 4.17 ~~ 2.662.66 1.71.7

2004 @ 2004 @ 1980 1980 Drug Drug AdmitsAdmits

% of total% of total

0.00340.0034 0.00100 0.00100 p. c.p. c.

3.43.4

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SummarySummary• The increase in prison populations is only The increase in prison populations is only

partly due to increases in new admissions partly due to increases in new admissions from court, and hence the crime rate.from court, and hence the crime rate.

• The total time spent cycling back and The total time spent cycling back and forth between prison and parole before forth between prison and parole before discharge has increased by 70% between discharge has increased by 70% between 1980 and 2004.1980 and 2004.

• The “war on drugs” has inflated new The “war on drugs” has inflated new admissions to prison in 2004 by 25% admissions to prison in 2004 by 25% compared to the policy on imprisoning compared to the policy on imprisoning drug offenders in 1980drug offenders in 1980

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What Caused Such High What Caused Such High Populations of Prisoners Populations of Prisoners

and Parolees?and Parolees?• New Admissions per capita = new New Admissions per capita = new

admissions per offense * offenses admissions per offense * offenses per capitaper capita– The per capita California Crime Index The per capita California Crime Index

fell from ~0.04 in 1980 to ~0.02 in fell from ~0.04 in 1980 to ~0.02 in 20042004

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It Was Not the Inflow from It Was Not the Inflow from CourtCourt

California Felon New Admissions Per Index Offense

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0.2000

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0.4000

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0.6000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

Rat

io