policy applications of rains/gains in europe
DESCRIPTION
Janusz Cofala and Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Application of GAINS model for integrated assessment of air pollution in Europe and in non-European EECCA countries. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Janusz Cofala and Markus AmannCentre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Application of GAINS model for integrated assessment of air pollution in Europe and in
non-European EECCA countries
Policy applications of RAINS/GAINS in Europe
• GAINS/RAINS for air pollution
Protocols to the LRTAP Convention:
- 2nd S Protocol, Gothenburg Protocol and its revision
Support to EU policies:
- CAFE Programme and Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP)
- National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive and its revision
- Air pollution consequences of updated EU energy scenarios
• GAINS for climate policy analysis- Non-CO2 cost curves for Climate and Energy Package (C&E)
- Air pollution effects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenarios
- Co-benefits on air pollution for C&E Package
Targets from the EU Thematic Strategy on AP
Indicator Unit Improvement relative to 2000
Life years lost from particulate matter (YOLLs)
Years of life lost 47%
Area of forest ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification km2 74%
Area of freshwater ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification km2 39%
Ecosystems area where nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads for eutrophication km2 43%
Premature mortality from ozoneNumber of cases 10%
Revision of the NEC Directive
• Targets to be achieved in 2020 based on
– C&E energy package scenario (PRIMES)
– National projections (or CAPRI results) for agriculture
• Ceilings determined with GAINS optimization routine
– Starting point: “Current policies” emission control legislation
Revision of the NEC Directive – emissions reduction
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC
2000 2020 Baseline 2020 NEC
Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months
2020 (4.2 months)
2000 (8 months)
Forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, %
2020 (3% of total)
2000 (19 % of total)
GAINS coverage
• Emissions and costs modules:– All larger countries included– Russia: four regions for the European part, for Asian part
of Russia available by oblast– Calculations can be done on-line
• Optimization and impact modules implemented for Europe, China and India
• GHG mitigation efforts calculator available for all Annex I countries
Inclusion of EECCA countries
• Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova– (some) contacts with national experts
• Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic.– No contacts with national teams
• Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan aggregated to “Other FSU Asia”– No contacts with national teams
Emission scenarios for EECCA countriesEconomic activities
Energy– National scenarios supplied by experts from Russia (2002) and
Ukraine (2004)– Other countries IEA energy statistics, projections based on
scaling down of SRES B2 scenario
Agriculture– FAO statistics and projections
Emission scenarios for EECCA countriesControl measures
Baseline: • controls only for PM from stationary sources
“With measures” scenario:• FGD for new and retrofit of 50% of old power plants in 2020• Low sulphur fuels: 1% heavy fuel oil, 0.1% light fuel oil, 0.05%
diesel• Industrial processes: -50% SO2 , -40% NOx, PM as current
standards for new Member States • Primary NOx measures for boilers • Euro 4/IV for new vehicles• Improved electrostatic precipitators for large boilers
Maximum reductions included in RAINS (MRR)• All technical end-of-pipe controls• No pre-mature scrapping of existing installations• Does not include structural and behavioural changes
EECCA - emissions of air pollutants and CO2 in 2000 and 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
SO2 NOx PM2.5 CO2
10^6
tons
, CO
2 in
10^
9ton
s
2000 Baseline With Measures MRR
EECCA - emissions of SO2 in 2020 by country relative to 2000
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Armenia Belarus FSU Asia Georgia Kazakhstan KyrgyzRep.
Moldova RussianFed.
Ukraine EECCA
Baseline With Meas. MRR
EECCA - emissions of NOx in 2020 by country relative to 2000
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Armenia Belarus FSU Asia Georgia Kazakhstan KyrgyzRep.
Moldova RussianFed.
Ukraine EECCA
Baseline With Meas. MRR
EECCA - emissions of PM2.5 in 2020 by country relative to 2000
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Armenia Belarus FSU Asia Georgia Kazakhstan KyrgyzRep.
Moldova RussianFed.
Ukraine EECCA
Baseline With Meas. MRR
Loss in statistical life expectancydue to anthropogenic PM2.5
Baseline projection 2020 With measures scenario 2020
Data needs for further improvement
• Macroeconomic projections• Projections of emission generating activities:
– Energy – Transport– Agricultural projections (livestock numbers)– Activities of heavy industries– Growth of NMVOC generating sectors
• Fuel quality, country-specific emission and cost factors• ‘Current legislation’ penetration of control technologies
Also (if possible)• Potentials for switching to energy efficient and low CO2
technologies
Conclusions
• GAINS has been used in many policy-relevant studies at the CLRTAP and EU level
• Depending on the purpose, different model features are applied• Preliminary databases and assessment available also for EECCA
countries• Data and results can be viewed via the internet• Tutorial is available also in Russian• Important updates of database for EECCA countries needed• Can be done only in close collaboration national experts
PLEASE HELP!!!
Пожалуйста помогите!!!
More information:http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains
Access to the on-line model:http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains/