Policies and measures Policies and measures to formalize the to formalize the

informal economyinformal economyPresentation for the ILO-ITC seminar Presentation for the ILO-ITC seminar

on “on “Employment and Informal Employment and Informal Economy”Economy”

March, 2009March, 2009Prof. Krastyo Petkov-BulgariaProf. Krastyo Petkov-Bulgaria

Kr.petkov@wnwe.euKr.petkov@wnwe.eu

CLASIFFICATION AND CLASIFFICATION AND FACTORSFACTORS

1. Definitions: different criteria and concepts1. Definitions: different criteria and concepts /black, shadow, underground, hidden economy/;/black, shadow, underground, hidden economy/; 2. Three sectors of the hidden economy:2. Three sectors of the hidden economy: Informal /legal/;Informal /legal/; Grey /semi legal /;Grey /semi legal /; Black / I legal /;Black / I legal /; 3. Segmentation of the labour market in the IE3. Segmentation of the labour market in the IE 4.Factors for the IE growth:4.Factors for the IE growth: Global;Global; Intraregional;Intraregional; National;National; Neo liberal reforms;Neo liberal reforms;

First partFirst part

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

Evolution of meaningsEvolution of meanings

Important massage:Important massage:

Informal Economy /IE/ is not Informal Economy /IE/ is not a temporary, transitional a temporary, transitional phenomenon , as it used to be phenomenon , as it used to be described in the theory and described in the theory and practicepractice

Past significancePast significance

Initial considerations of Informal Initial considerations of Informal Economy /IE/ were related to imaging it, Economy /IE/ were related to imaging it, as just an adjunct to the official economy.as just an adjunct to the official economy.

Gradually IE marked a certain growth. It Gradually IE marked a certain growth. It involved c branches and regions, thus, involved c branches and regions, thus, engaging numerous in figures and engaging numerous in figures and sustainable in time, labor and business sustainable in time, labor and business groups.groups.

It transformed from a safe-way for It transformed from a safe-way for unemployed and low-income groups, into unemployed and low-income groups, into a factor, adding to the overall economic a factor, adding to the overall economic growth. growth.

Present importancePresent importance

Today, informal work parallels labor, Today, informal work parallels labor, applied in the formal economy; and thus, applied in the formal economy; and thus, informal employment turns into a significant informal employment turns into a significant source of primary and/or secondary source of primary and/or secondary (marginal) incomes for individuals. This (marginal) incomes for individuals. This process happens, primarily in the process happens, primarily in the developing countries. developing countries.

National economies, especially in times of National economies, especially in times of crisis, evolve to new economic equilibria crisis, evolve to new economic equilibria and dynamics, rooted at two inter-and dynamics, rooted at two inter-dependent economic sectors: the formal dependent economic sectors: the formal and informal one. and informal one.

Second partSecond part

STATISTICSSTATISTICS

IE size in the transition IE size in the transition countriescountries

The share of informal sector in Central Europe is The share of informal sector in Central Europe is estimated at 15%-20% of the total number of employed. estimated at 15%-20% of the total number of employed. Percentage levels of this share in the Baltic Region, Percentage levels of this share in the Baltic Region, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia vary in between 20% and Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia vary in between 20% and 35%. However, in two territorially distant regions, 35%. However, in two territorially distant regions, flourishing of informal economic activity is observed. For flourishing of informal economic activity is observed. For instance, in the states of ex-Yugoslavia, this percentage instance, in the states of ex-Yugoslavia, this percentage range is 40%-50%, and in the Asian teritiries of the ex-range is 40%-50%, and in the Asian teritiries of the ex-USSR, this is a range of 50% to 80% of all employed. USSR, this is a range of 50% to 80% of all employed.

IE in 21 OECD countriesIE in 21 OECD countries

Factors for the IE growth:Factors for the IE growth:

-Global /including financial -Global /including financial and economic crisis/;and economic crisis/;

- Intraregional /common - Intraregional /common past, present links/;past, present links/;

- National /traditions,; - National /traditions,; regulations/;regulations/;

-Neo liberal reforms -Neo liberal reforms deregulation deregulation paradigm/;paradigm/;

Third partThird part

DEFINITIONSDEFINITIONS

General definitionsGeneral definitions

Mixed criteria-many definitions:Mixed criteria-many definitions: IE is a ‘market-based production of goods IE is a ‘market-based production of goods

and services, whether legal or illegal, and services, whether legal or illegal, that escapes detection in the official that escapes detection in the official

estimates of GDP’. estimates of GDP’. Or to put it in another way, one of the broadest Or to put it in another way, one of the broadest

definitions of IE includes:definitions of IE includes:

’’those economic activities and the income derived those economic activities and the income derived from them that circumvent or otherwise avoid from them that circumvent or otherwise avoid

government regulation, taxation or observationgovernment regulation, taxation or observation’.’.

Concrete definitionConcrete definition

II “ “ The Informal Economy includes all market-based The Informal Economy includes all market-based

legal production of goods and services that are legal production of goods and services that are deliberately concealed from governments for the deliberately concealed from governments for the following reasons:following reasons:

1. to avoid payment of income, value added or other taxes,1. to avoid payment of income, value added or other taxes, 2. to avoid payment of social security contributions,2. to avoid payment of social security contributions, 3. to avoid having to meet certain legal labour market 3. to avoid having to meet certain legal labour market

standards, such as minimum wages, standards, such as minimum wages, maximum working hours, safety standards, etc.,maximum working hours, safety standards, etc., 4. to avoid complying with certain administrative 4. to avoid complying with certain administrative

procedures, such as completing statistical questionnaires or procedures, such as completing statistical questionnaires or other administrative forms.other administrative forms.

-------------------------- Source:

The Shadow Economy in Germany: A Blessing or a Curse for the Official Economy? Friedrich Schneider ECONOMIC ANALYSIS & POLICY, VOL. 38 NO. 1, MARCH 2008

PERC project typologyPERC project typology

In general, there are two types of underground In general, there are two types of underground economic activities: illicit employment and the economic activities: illicit employment and the production of goods and services consumed production of goods and services consumed within the household. PERC methodology focuses within the household. PERC methodology focuses on the former type and excludes illegal activities on the former type and excludes illegal activities such as drug production, crime and human such as drug production, crime and human trafficking. trafficking.

The latter type includes the production of goods The latter type includes the production of goods and services, consumed within the household or and services, consumed within the household or childcare and is not part of this analysis either.childcare and is not part of this analysis either.

Thus, PERC analysis only focuses on economic Thus, PERC analysis only focuses on economic activities that would normally be included in activities that would normally be included in national accounts but which due to tax or national accounts but which due to tax or regulatory burden remain underground. regulatory burden remain underground.

Forth partForth part

WHY WHY I E I E GROWS?GROWS?

Main Causes of IE growth-1Main Causes of IE growth-1

1. Tax and Social Security Contribution Burdens 1. Tax and Social Security Contribution Burdens

Since taxes affect labour-leisure choices, and also Since taxes affect labour-leisure choices, and also stimulate labour supply in the shadow economy, the stimulate labour supply in the shadow economy, the distortion of the overall tax burden is a major concern distortion of the overall tax burden is a major concern for economists. The bigger the difference between the for economists. The bigger the difference between the total cost of labour in the official economy and the total cost of labour in the official economy and the after-tax earnings (from work), the greater is the after-tax earnings (from work), the greater is the incentive to avoid this difference and to work in the incentive to avoid this difference and to work in the shadow economyshadow economy

2. Intensity of Regulations 2. Intensity of Regulations

Increased intensity of regulations is another important Increased intensity of regulations is another important factor which reduces the freedom (of choice) for factor which reduces the freedom (of choice) for individuals engaged in the official economy / labour individuals engaged in the official economy / labour market regulations, trade barriers, and labour market regulations, trade barriers, and labour restrictions for foreigners./ restrictions for foreigners./

Main causes of IE growth-2Main causes of IE growth-2

3. Public Sector Services 3. Public Sector Services

An increase of the shadow economy can lead to reduced An increase of the shadow economy can lead to reduced state revenues which in turn reduce the quality and state revenues which in turn reduce the quality and quantity of publicly provided goods and services. quantity of publicly provided goods and services. Ultimately, this can lead to an increase in the tax rates for Ultimately, this can lead to an increase in the tax rates for firms and individuals in the official sector, quite often firms and individuals in the official sector, quite often combined with a deterioration in the quality of the public combined with a deterioration in the quality of the public goods (such as the public infrastructure) and of the goods (such as the public infrastructure) and of the administration, with the consequence of even stronger administration, with the consequence of even stronger incentives to participate in the shadow economy.incentives to participate in the shadow economy.

Important note: Countries with more general regulation of Important note: Countries with more general regulation of their economies tend to have a higher share of the their economies tend to have a higher share of the unofficial economy in total GDP, is found in their empirical unofficial economy in total GDP, is found in their empirical analysis. analysis.

Some Intermediate Some Intermediate ConclusionsConclusions

1.Smaller shadow economies appear in 1.Smaller shadow economies appear in countries with higher tax revenues if achieved countries with higher tax revenues if achieved by lower tax rates, fewer laws and regulations by lower tax rates, fewer laws and regulations and less bribery facing enterprises. Countries and less bribery facing enterprises. Countries with a better rule of law, which is financed by with a better rule of law, which is financed by tax revenues, also have smaller shadow tax revenues, also have smaller shadow economies.economies.

2. Transition countries have higher levels of 2. Transition countries have higher levels of regulation leading to a significantly higher regulation leading to a significantly higher incidence of bribery, higher effective taxes on incidence of bribery, higher effective taxes on official activities and a large discretionary official activities and a large discretionary framework of regulations and consequently a framework of regulations and consequently a higher shadow economy. higher shadow economy.

Intermediate Conclusions-2Intermediate Conclusions-2

The overall conclusion is that ‘wealthier countries of the The overall conclusion is that ‘wealthier countries of the OECD, as well as some in Eastern Europe, find OECD, as well as some in Eastern Europe, find themselves in the ‘good equilibrium’ of relatively low themselves in the ‘good equilibrium’ of relatively low tax and regulatory burden, sizeable revenue tax and regulatory burden, sizeable revenue mobilization, good rule of law and corruption control, mobilization, good rule of law and corruption control, and a [relatively] small unofficial economy.and a [relatively] small unofficial economy.

By contrast, a number of countries in Latin America By contrast, a number of countries in Latin America and the former Soviet Union exhibit characteristics and the former Soviet Union exhibit characteristics consistent with a ‘bad equilibrium’: tax and regulatory consistent with a ‘bad equilibrium’: tax and regulatory discretion and burden on the firm are high, the rule of discretion and burden on the firm are high, the rule of law is weak, and there is a high incidence of bribery law is weak, and there is a high incidence of bribery and a relatively high share of activities in the and a relatively high share of activities in the unofficial economy.unofficial economy.

Fifth partFifth part

IE in the IE in the CEE/SEE regionsCEE/SEE regions

Informal Economy StagesInformal Economy Stages

What is behind this trajectory?What is behind this trajectory?/Some arguments from PERC analysis//Some arguments from PERC analysis/

Informal employment appeared simultaneously with the political changes in the Informal employment appeared simultaneously with the political changes in the 80s, which period of time is known as the “perestroika”. During the totalitarian 80s, which period of time is known as the “perestroika”. During the totalitarian period of time, each informal activity (excluding home-centered activities), was period of time, each informal activity (excluding home-centered activities), was considered, as a rule, to be illegal and was penalized by official authorities. considered, as a rule, to be illegal and was penalized by official authorities. Another exception to this generalization are the small segments of agricultural Another exception to this generalization are the small segments of agricultural activities in the field of land cultivation, mutual service exchanges among house-activities in the field of land cultivation, mutual service exchanges among house-holds, where there is relatively no direct state intervention in labor market holds, where there is relatively no direct state intervention in labor market relations of private/family nature (Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, and others). relations of private/family nature (Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, and others).

Since 1989 a period of forced and chaotic informalization came, due to the Since 1989 a period of forced and chaotic informalization came, due to the neoliberal economic reforms, imposed in the 90s within the whole vast region of neoliberal economic reforms, imposed in the 90s within the whole vast region of the Central and Eastern European Countries. The boom of unregulated the Central and Eastern European Countries. The boom of unregulated employment is a result of the specific and compressed in time processes of employment is a result of the specific and compressed in time processes of privatization and economic restructuring of the big state-owned and state-privatization and economic restructuring of the big state-owned and state-managed companies in a large scale. These processes were coupled with mass managed companies in a large scale. These processes were coupled with mass liberalization of labor force without applying adequate measures for support of liberalization of labor force without applying adequate measures for support of the emerging labor markets. Some of these measures, which were never applied the emerging labor markets. Some of these measures, which were never applied as economic tools are requalification of individuals, labor market brokerage, as economic tools are requalification of individuals, labor market brokerage, labor market funneling of the labor force, stimulation of self-employment and labor market funneling of the labor force, stimulation of self-employment and other tools. other tools.

The next, third wave, which occurred during the first decade of the 21The next, third wave, which occurred during the first decade of the 21 stst century, is century, is a period of time, when most of the national economies of the Eastern and South-a period of time, when most of the national economies of the Eastern and South-East Europe were modified into a test-field to apply the principles and policies of East Europe were modified into a test-field to apply the principles and policies of the Washington Consensus and its relevant tools for imposing shock therapies. the Washington Consensus and its relevant tools for imposing shock therapies.

  

How it happened in the CEE / How it happened in the CEE / PERC Project/PERC Project/ Countries from the first round/circle, included in the Countries from the first round/circle, included in the

ITUC/PERC project /SEE–former Yugoslavia/ and in the ITUC/PERC project /SEE–former Yugoslavia/ and in the second circle /NIS-ex-USSR/ conducted two interlinked second circle /NIS-ex-USSR/ conducted two interlinked changes:changes:-Transformation One – it was typical for the ex-Soviet area: and -Transformation One – it was typical for the ex-Soviet area: and

transition from state-planned to market-driven economy was transition from state-planned to market-driven economy was completed;completed;

-Transformation Two – represents transition from one-party -Transformation Two – represents transition from one-party governance to political and trade unionist pluralism;governance to political and trade unionist pluralism;

National Mapping Reports show that both transformations National Mapping Reports show that both transformations were conducted in parallel, and there were times, where they were conducted in parallel, and there were times, where they were discontinued every now and then by economic cycle were discontinued every now and then by economic cycle crises or corrections in the models for reforms /Ukraine, crises or corrections in the models for reforms /Ukraine, Serbia, Georgia/; by political crisis – and more specifically, Serbia, Georgia/; by political crisis – and more specifically, by local destabilization /including ethnic-based conflicts/ and by local destabilization /including ethnic-based conflicts/ and by external inter-state tensions and collision /typical to all by external inter-state tensions and collision /typical to all countries, included in the project/.countries, included in the project/.

Chronology of the eventsChronology of the events

Emerging of IE is related to increasing insecurity and freedoms of Emerging of IE is related to increasing insecurity and freedoms of movement of people and work force.. Transition from regulated movement of people and work force.. Transition from regulated employment, mainly from occupations in state-owned companies to employment, mainly from occupations in state-owned companies to occupations in the emerging informal private businesses is a result of the occupations in the emerging informal private businesses is a result of the spontaneously derived strategy for survival in crisis situations. spontaneously derived strategy for survival in crisis situations.

The other impulse for spontaneous informalization is due to the prevailed The other impulse for spontaneous informalization is due to the prevailed economic chaos, which occurred after the elimination of the party-state, economic chaos, which occurred after the elimination of the party-state, top-to-bottom control mechanisms /that is, elimination of the command-top-to-bottom control mechanisms /that is, elimination of the command-administrative system/. The embargo regiments, applied in the region of administrative system/. The embargo regiments, applied in the region of the Western Balkans are the other generator of unregulated trade, illegal the Western Balkans are the other generator of unregulated trade, illegal migration and proliferation of trans-border informal economic networks.migration and proliferation of trans-border informal economic networks.

In terms of chronological order, ethnic and religious conflicts (including In terms of chronological order, ethnic and religious conflicts (including armed conflicts in the Western Balkans and the Caucasus) were first, then armed conflicts in the Western Balkans and the Caucasus) were first, then transition times came (time of economic reforms, imposed by the IFI’s and transition times came (time of economic reforms, imposed by the IFI’s and applied by the respective national governments, who followed the applied by the respective national governments, who followed the neoliberal doctrine for building “free and perfect” markets). neoliberal doctrine for building “free and perfect” markets).

The second period lasted until the economic crisis of 2007-2010. However, The second period lasted until the economic crisis of 2007-2010. However, the EME’s do have neither automatic stabilizers, nor buffers, nor networks the EME’s do have neither automatic stabilizers, nor buffers, nor networks to protect the affected by the crisis professional groups and businesses.to protect the affected by the crisis professional groups and businesses.

The Informal Economy The Informal Economy BoomBoom

All countries without exceptions, in All countries without exceptions, in both sub-regions, are turning from both sub-regions, are turning from industrial-agricultural or mainly industrial-agricultural or mainly agricultural states into economic areas agricultural states into economic areas with domination of services, retailing with domination of services, retailing and dispersed micro-production and dispersed micro-production factories, based on sub-contractual factories, based on sub-contractual relations. relations.

This is demonstrated by the branch This is demonstrated by the branch distribution of informal activities in all distribution of informal activities in all nine countries, subject to the nine countries, subject to the ITUC/PERC projectITUC/PERC project

Positive EffectsPositive Effects

- finding jobs (which diminishes unemployment - finding jobs (which diminishes unemployment rates); the process of accruing additional incomes rates); the process of accruing additional incomes for individuals (which diminished poverty; for individuals (which diminished poverty;

- evolving the way services are provided to the - evolving the way services are provided to the market (which was limited by the party-state market (which was limited by the party-state system ); system );

- producing demanded goods – mainly in the - producing demanded goods – mainly in the processing industry, information industries processing industry, information industries (internet, and mobile technologies, which allow (internet, and mobile technologies, which allow individuals to work from their homes, or from a individuals to work from their homes, or from a distance; the e-economy, in general); distance; the e-economy, in general);

- greater use of labor potential of households and - greater use of labor potential of households and so on…so on…

Negative effectsNegative effects

To the negative effects all national analysts relate:To the negative effects all national analysts relate:

- at first place, direct and indirect practices - at first place, direct and indirect practices to circumvent labor and social standards and acts. to circumvent labor and social standards and acts.

-diminishing tax incomes and social security -diminishing tax incomes and social security proceedings into national treasury turns into proceedings into national treasury turns into financial burden for the state and social burden for financial burden for the state and social burden for the individuals.the individuals.

More examples of negative effects may be given More examples of negative effects may be given here, such as non-loyal business competition here, such as non-loyal business competition /social dumping/, woman and child labor /social dumping/, woman and child labor exploitation, criminalization of businesses /where exploitation, criminalization of businesses /where shadow and black segments are organically inter-shadow and black segments are organically inter-mingled/, administrative corruption, and others.mingled/, administrative corruption, and others.

Sixed partSixed part

FORMALISATION FORMALISATION

OR OR

IDENTIFICATION?IDENTIFICATION?

Evolution of concepts and Evolution of concepts and policespolices Transformation by economic sectors takes Transformation by economic sectors takes

comparatively long time /half a century, at least/; during comparatively long time /half a century, at least/; during this period of time economic theories and political views this period of time economic theories and political views evolve, in terms of their relation to informal activities. evolve, in terms of their relation to informal activities.

Although official data for developing countries show Although official data for developing countries show that even today the share of unregulated labor is that even today the share of unregulated labor is comparatively low , the phenomenon “informal comparatively low , the phenomenon “informal economy” becomes a focal point for the strategic economy” becomes a focal point for the strategic analysts and decision-makers.analysts and decision-makers.

Processes of the last decade changed significantly EU’s Processes of the last decade changed significantly EU’s official position and attitude towards the process of official position and attitude towards the process of “informalization” of the economy. The very accent of the “informalization” of the economy. The very accent of the EU policy altered the banning norms /restrictive / into EU policy altered the banning norms /restrictive / into curative regulations and gradual legalization of some curative regulations and gradual legalization of some segments of the informal employment. segments of the informal employment.

  

Three Competing Views of the Informal Three Competing Views of the Informal Economy and Economic DevelopmentEconomy and Economic Development

By definition, informal businesses are By definition, informal businesses are hidden from the eyes of the state and so hidden from the eyes of the state and so most of what we have relies on most of what we have relies on estimations and very micro-level estimations and very micro-level studies.studies.

AAnn crocross-country report that appeared ss-country report that appeared in the Brookings Papers on August 2008 in the Brookings Papers on August 2008 aims to improve the understanding of aims to improve the understanding of the relationship between economic the relationship between economic development and the informal economy. development and the informal economy.

TThe romantic view he romantic view

According to this view informal firms According to this view informal firms are actually or potentially extremely are actually or potentially extremely productive, but held back by productive, but held back by government taxes and regulations as government taxes and regulations as well as by the lack of safe property well as by the lack of safe property rights and access to finance. rights and access to finance. If such barriers were lowered, informal If such barriers were lowered, informal businesses would register and take businesses would register and take advantage of the benefits of their formal advantage of the benefits of their formal status. Thus, this view assumes that status. Thus, this view assumes that unofficial firms are fundamentally unofficial firms are fundamentally similar to official ones.similar to official ones.

The parasite viewThe parasite view

The parasite view states that informal firms The parasite view states that informal firms need to stay small to avoid detection.need to stay small to avoid detection. The decision to remain in the informal The decision to remain in the informal economy is a rational one, because the cost economy is a rational one, because the cost advantage of avoiding taxes and regulations advantage of avoiding taxes and regulations allows unofficial firms to undercut official allows unofficial firms to undercut official firms in prices.firms in prices. Informal firms are thus hurting growth Informal firms are thus hurting growth because their small scale makes them because their small scale makes them unproductive and because they take away unproductive and because they take away market share from more productive, formal market share from more productive, formal competitors. Government policy should aim competitors. Government policy should aim to eradicate informal firms by reducing tax to eradicate informal firms by reducing tax evasion and increasing government evasion and increasing government regulation enforcement.regulation enforcement.

The dual viewThe dual view

IInformal and formal firms are operating nformal and formal firms are operating in different markets and have different in different markets and have different customers so they do not compete customers so they do not compete against each other. against each other. Since informal firms provide livelihoods Since informal firms provide livelihoods to millions of people, government to millions of people, government policies should not raise the costs of policies should not raise the costs of doing business for them. doing business for them. Instead, the role of government policies Instead, the role of government policies should be to promote the creation of should be to promote the creation of official firms and let the informal ones official firms and let the informal ones die as the economy develops.die as the economy develops.

Additional arguments for the new Additional arguments for the new identityidentity

SSince there is such a productivity gap ince there is such a productivity gap between formal and informal firms and between formal and informal firms and considering that there is no evidence considering that there is no evidence that informal firms become formal as that informal firms become formal as they grow, stimulation of formal firms they grow, stimulation of formal firms is necessary for economic growth.is necessary for economic growth.

The evidence points out that a best The evidence points out that a best move would be to support the creation move would be to support the creation of formal firms run by educated of formal firms run by educated managers and utilizing modern managers and utilizing modern practices to stimulate economic practices to stimulate economic developmentdevelopment..

IE-CrisisIE-Crisis

Figures published by the Organization for Economic Figures published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) show that the Cooperation and Development (OECD) show that the world has more people working informally than world has more people working informally than formally. formally.

Campaigners emphasize that informal workers are not Campaigners emphasize that informal workers are not necessarily illegal workers. The OECD says that a necessarily illegal workers. The OECD says that a record 1.8 billion workers are employed in underground record 1.8 billion workers are employed in underground activities, compared with 1.2 billion in the formal sector.activities, compared with 1.2 billion in the formal sector.

During a recession, “dismissed workers frequently have During a recession, “dismissed workers frequently have to move to the first available job, even if it is of a lower to move to the first available job, even if it is of a lower quality than the one they have lost”. It says that this will quality than the one they have lost”. It says that this will have a profoundly negative effect on the United have a profoundly negative effect on the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goal to halve the Nations’ Millennium Development Goal to halve the number of people who live on less than $1 (69p) a day.number of people who live on less than $1 (69p) a day.

IE-MigrationIE-Migration

Between 4 million and 8 million people reside illegally Between 4 million and 8 million people reside illegally in Europe. Ilegal migration is a top priority in European in Europe. Ilegal migration is a top priority in European politics for the past few years. politics for the past few years.

Illegal migrants come mainly to the Mediterranean Illegal migrants come mainly to the Mediterranean countries from Africa, Eastern Europe, and the Middle countries from Africa, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. Most of them also choose to stay permanently. East. Most of them also choose to stay permanently. Low fertility rates and aging populations coupled with Low fertility rates and aging populations coupled with a higher level of education have led to labor shortages a higher level of education have led to labor shortages in low-paying sectors. in low-paying sectors.

Italian sociologist Emilio Reyneri's : the IE in Southern Italian sociologist Emilio Reyneri's : the IE in Southern Europe has a pull-effect on migration. The IE has deep Europe has a pull-effect on migration. The IE has deep social and historical roots and has not been caused by social and historical roots and has not been caused by immigration. The opportunities for informal work, immigration. The opportunities for informal work, strengthened by the fact that there are labor shortages strengthened by the fact that there are labor shortages in sectors where natives no longer want to work, has in sectors where natives no longer want to work, has made these countries attractive for migrants.made these countries attractive for migrants.

The endThe end

Thanks for the Thanks for the attention!attention!

Any questions?Any questions?

Над 14% е сивата икономика в Германия, според анализаторите на ”Дойче банк”Над 14% е сивата икономика в Германия, според анализаторите на ”Дойче банк”          Сивата икономика в европейските страни им е помогнала да оцелеят по време на рецесията, Сивата икономика в европейските страни им е помогнала да оцелеят по време на рецесията,

съобщава Financial Times, цитиран от Economynews. Британският вестник се позовава на съобщава Financial Times, цитиран от Economynews. Британският вестник се позовава на изследване на "Дойче банк".изследване на "Дойче банк".

      Експертите на банката са уверени, че икономиките с предимно съмнителни структури, с голям Експертите на банката са уверени, че икономиките с предимно съмнителни структури, с голям

обем недекларирани средства, използващи утвърдени схеми за избягване на данъци са обем недекларирани средства, използващи утвърдени схеми за избягване на данъци са преживели по-малко негативи в сравнение с “честните“ си конкуренти.преживели по-малко негативи в сравнение с “честните“ си конкуренти.

      Анализаторите уточняват, че този извод важи предимно за страните, в които този тип икономика е Анализаторите уточняват, че този извод важи предимно за страните, в които този тип икономика е

много разпространена. Като пример експертите посочват Гърция, чиято икономика, независимо от много разпространена. Като пример експертите посочват Гърция, чиято икономика, независимо от финансовата криза, се сви с 1% в сравнение с 4-те процента спад в страните в ЕС.финансовата криза, се сви с 1% в сравнение с 4-те процента спад в страните в ЕС.

      Страни като Австрия, Франция и Холандия, които са пример за другата крайност на “изцяло пълна Страни като Австрия, Франция и Холандия, които са пример за другата крайност на “изцяло пълна

честност“ също се справят относително успешно от кризата.честност“ също се справят относително успешно от кризата.       Оказва се, че най-много са пострадали от икономическата криза тези, които не са в нито една от Оказва се, че най-много са пострадали от икономическата криза тези, които не са в нито една от

крайностите, а именно германците. Анализаторите определят, че показателят на сивата крайностите, а именно германците. Анализаторите определят, че показателят на сивата икономика е сравнително висок 14,3318% за Германия. В същото време страната е била икономика е сравнително висок 14,3318% за Германия. В същото време страната е била изправена пред реализацията на един от най- рисковите сценарии за изход от кризата.изправена пред реализацията на един от най- рисковите сценарии за изход от кризата.

     

Re-conceptualization of IERe-conceptualization of IE

•Органичната връзка между формалния и неформалния сектор;•От неформалния капан към нов еквалибриум /информализацията като глобален тренд/;•Вложенията се отплащат: НЕ като естествен стабилизатор: а/ в период на развитие /случаят с Индия/; б/ в период на криза;•Извод за синдикатите: да се учат на партньорство с неформалните работници и техните мрежи;