MARKETVIEW

Portfolio deals dominated the

Polish investment market

Poland Investment, Q4 2017

*Arrows indicate change from the corresponding quarter in the previous year

Figure 1: Investment market in Poland – breakdown by type of property (in EUR million)

Source: CBRE Research, 2017

Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 1

SUMMARY

• The last quarter of 2017 was the most active quarter since the end of 2015 with total volume amounting

to more than EUR 2.5 bn. Investment activity in the whole year exceeded EUR 5.00 bn., equating to the

highest volume since the peak in 2006.

• Investor activity focused mainly on the retail and office sectors which amounted to EUR 2.15 bn. and

EUR 1.55 bn., respectively.

• Industrial & logistics was dominated by one single pan-European portfolio transaction, which accounted

for 81% of total volume in the sector.

• New record volume was registered in the hotel sector, with total activity higher than EUR 0.35 bn.

• Investor interest was also directed towards alternative investment–new single PRS deals were recorded on

the market.

• Prime yields are on a continuous compression path in all sectors of the commercial real estate market in

Poland.

• Almost 55% of total volume was traded in portfolio transactions representing the greatest share in the

history of the Polish investment market.

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Office Industrial Retail Other Number of transactions

5.15%EUR 5 billion 5.20% 6.00%

MARKETVIEW

Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 2

POLAND INVESTMENT

ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Germany France UK USA Poland

Figure 3: Ten-year government bond yields (2012 – 2021)

Source: Oxford Economics, 2017

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

UK

Italy

France

EU 28

Eurozone

Germany

Spain

Czech Republic

Poland

Romania

GDP growth (y-o-y)

Figure 2: GDP growth in selected countries

(Q3 2017, y-o-y)

Source: Eurostat, Q3 2017

MARKETVIEW

Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 3

POLAND INVESTMENT

INVESTMENT MARKET SUMMARY

20%

18%

15%

11%

9%

8%

5%

14%

South Africa Germany China USA

UK Czech Republic Israel Other

Source: CBRE Research, 2017

Figure 4: Origin of investors in 2017 (%)

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Industrial Office Retail Office - Regional Cities

Source: CBRE Research, 2017

Source: CBRE Research, 2017

EUR 0.37 bn.OTHER

Figure 5: Poland prime yields

Figure 6: Property turnover divided by segments in 2017

EUR 0.94 bn.INDUSTRIAL

EUR 1.55 bn.OFFICE

EUR 2.15 bn.RETAIL

19% 31% 43% 7%

MARKETVIEW

Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 4

POLAND INVESTMENT

RETAIL MARKET

Galeria Sloneczna

INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS

Source: CBRE

MARKETVIEW

Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 5

POLAND INVESTMENT

OFFICE MARKET

Proximo

Warsaw Spire (B)

Source: CBRE

Source: CBRE

MARKETVIEW

Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 6

POLAND INVESTMENT

HOTELS & PRS

Sheraton Hotel in Krakow

Source: CBRE

MARKETVIEW

Q4 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE sp. z o.o. | 7

POLAND INVESTMENT

OUTLOOK

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Portfolio deals Single asset deals

Source: CBRE Research, 2017

Figure 9: Share of portfolio deals

23%

77%

Warsaw Regional

Figure 10: Investment market volume in Warsaw and regions

Source: CBRE Research, 2017

Figure 7: Office investment volume in Polish cities

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017

<100 000 100 000 - 400 000 > 400 000

Figure 8: Retail investment by city size

Source: CBRE Research, 2017Source: CBRE Research, 2017

38%

21%

11%

8%

8%

7%

7%

Warsaw

Krakow

Wroclaw

Lodz

Gdansk

Katowice

Other

MARKETVIEW

Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy,

we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness.

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