plenary i-future of nanotechnology

Mihail C. RocoNational Science Foundation and National Nanotechnology Initiative

Sustainable Nanotechnology Organization, Orlando, November 10, 2016

Nanotechnology-inspired Grand Challenges and Sustainability

Sustainability grand challenges ahead

TASS, Sept 2016

Sustainable and resilient society – many facets

• Social (population growth and needs, governance, enduring democracy

• Economic (“more with less”: knowledge, technology, materials, water, energy, food, climate, green chemistry)

MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

http://www.cnhlcms.org/uploads/hands_earth_many2_280x240.JPG

Nano 2020 Report, 2011 (Ref 4)

• Resilient (infrastructure, emergency response, for life cycle)

• Maintaining quality of life and• Environmental (clean, renewable, biodiverse)

sustainability in planetary boundaries

http://www.cnhlcms.org/uploads/

Nanotechnology Governance Principles

NANOTECHNOLOGYGOVERNANCE

- Investment policy- Science policy- Risk management- Others . . . .

Four key functions:Risk

Governance

Visionary & Anticipatory (strategy, grand challenges ...)

Reso

urce

s

Level of Development

ExistingR&DResources

ExistingCommercialization

Resources

Discovery FFE Development Commercialization

Fuzzy Front EndDecision space

between opportunitydiscovery and product

development Transformative(productivity, outcomes …)

Responsible

Inclusive

Benefit society

RiskSustainability

Ref: Societal Implications of Nanoscience & Nanotech. (Roco and Bainbridge), Springer, 2001 and 2006

Nanotechnology-inspired grand challenges

Principles for progress via grand challenges (NNI, 2000-): - Planning long-term vision-inspired research- Facilitate S&T breakthroughs - Advance sustainable development - Support convergence processes

Several U.S. priorities in 2016 - 2017 Nanotechnology Signature Initiatives (re: sustainability)Sustainable Food-Energy-Water Systems Brain research; Nanotechnology-inspired Brain-like Computing National Strategic Computing Initiative National Network for Manufacturing Innovation


Long-term vision-inspired research

MC Roco, Nov 10 2016Focus on conceptual, synthetic goals

Modified Stokes diagram

PureBasic Research

(Bohr)

Use-inspired Basic Research

(Pasteur))EEEEEE

Pure Applied Research

(Edison)

Relevance for applications

Rele

vanc

e fo

r the

adva

ncem

ent o

f kno

wle

dge

Low use

Low

High Vision-inspired

Basic Research(added in CKTS, 2013)

New use, domainsKnown use

Empirical, less useful

Vision inspired research has been essential for the long-term view of nanotechnology

Roco and Bainbridge, 2013 , Fig 9 (Ref. 1) MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

Ex: Apollo program Ex: NNI program

Nanotechnology for sustainable societyExamples of long-term targets

• Nanosystems design and separations methods for economic desalinization

• Infinitely recyclable, re-usable, and renewable industrial ecosystems (IR3) to reduce demand for virgin materials and carbon emissions

• Community, buildings and household self-sufficiency


nano12000

2010

2020

2030

nano3

1999

30 year vision to develop nanotechnology in three stages changing focus and priorities

20102013

Reports available on: www.wtec.org/nano2/ and www.wtec.org/NBIC2-report/ (Refs. 3-6)

The 30 year vision has sparked imagination in Congress and 3 WHs

President Bush Signing 21st

Century Nanotechnology R&D Act –December 2003

President Clinton announces NNI in January 2000

NNI in four administrations: Clinton, Bush, Obama,

NSF vision report March1999

WH approves 15 yrview by PCAST 2014

President Obama


2017

-202

1 Pre

siden

t

Create library of nanocomponents

2000-2010

Active Nanostructures

2000

nano1 Component basics

2030 New socio-economic capabilities,

2020-2030nano3 Technology divergence

To general purpose technology

2010-2020

nano2 System integration

Based on NANO 2020, Fig. 5 (Ref. 3)

Passive Nanostructures

Systems of Nanosystems

Molecular Nanosystems

NBIC TechnologyPlatforms

GENERATIONS OFNANOPRODUCTS

CREATING A GENERAL PURPOSE NANOTECHNOLOGY IN 3 STAGES

NanosystemConv. Networks


Increasing “active nanotechnology” publications

Suominen et al., A Bibliometric Analysis of the Development of Next Generation Active Nanotechnologies, J. Nanoparticle Research, Vol18 (9).2016 MC. Roco, Nov 3 2016

Facilitate S&T breakthroughs


STI breakthroughs have a key role in long-term development

S&T breakthroughs underpin Grand Challenges (examples of novel concepts targeted by NNI in 2000 “in 20-30 years”)

Library of Congress in a “one cubic cm” memory device: target 30-40 atoms (2000); Realized 12-atom structure (IBM, 2012), DNA structure (Harvard, 2012; in “one cubic mm”). “Millions times smaller”

Exploit nano-photonics: change direction and frequency of light (2004, then succession of solutions); negative diffraction of light / electrons in meta-materials (2004) & 2D mat (2007). “New phenomena and devices”

Molecular cancer detection and treatment (first gold-shells, Rice, 2002 -2016 many other solutions in progress) “Not possible before”

Quasi-frictionless nanocomponents: quantum fluctuations between selected material surfaces (first Harvard, 2008). “Almost frictionless”

Magnetic computing close to the lowest Landauer fundamental limit of energy dissipation under the laws of thermodynamics (STC Berkeley, 2016). “Millions times less energy consumption” MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

S&T breakthroughs underpin Grand Challenges (examples of novel concepts targeted by NNI in 2000 “in 20-30 years”)

The promised smallest transistor in 2000 100 nm; realized 1nm in 2016 (Desei et al., Science, Stanford U): “Hundred times smaller”

Quantum communication at room temperature with few photons (STC Harvard, Westervelt et al. 2014): “Single photon memory device”

Promised to develop a predictive approach with case studies for nanotoxicity: “UC CEIN Predictive Toxicological Platforms”

Promised evaluation and governance using convergent methods: “Duke CEINT Governance Platform”

Formulation nano-ELSI and establish International nano-ELSI: “ASU and UCSB international CNS platform”

Mass-media dissemination of nanotechnology in society: “NCLT; NISE; NBC videos; Nano-Generation” MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

IBM magnetic storage is at 100 times denser than hard disk drives and solid state memory chips

Antiferromagnetic order in an iron atom array on copper nitrate revealed by spin-polarized imaging with a scanning tunneling microscope; area 4x16 nm (Bistability in Atomic-Scale Antiferromagnets, Loth, Baumann, C Lutz, Eigler and Heinrich,

Science Jan 2012)


DNA data memory system (Harvard U.)

2000: NNI goal for ~ 2025 - all information from Library of Congress in a device of size of 1 cm cube (Pres. Clinton) – was labeled as too ambitious

2012: DNA system could store it in about 1 mm cube(Church et al., Science, Aug. 2012)

DNA system (2012)

2000 NNI goal for ~2025


http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2012/08/15/science.1226355/F1.large.jpg

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2012/08/15/science.1226355/F1.large.jpg

Defining convergence


Defining S&T convergence (Ref 6: “Convergence of Knowledge, Technology and Society”, Springer, 2013)

Convergence is deep integration of knowledge, tools, techniques, and modes of thinking - into a unified ecosystem (changing the system) -

that allows to answer questions, resolve problems and build things that isolated capabilities cannot (goal oriented stage),

- as well as that creates new pathways and opportunities - competencies, knowledge, technologies, applications (divergence stage)

Convergence science – Creating or changing the unified ecosystem (based on 10 theories and 6 convergence principles)


Added Valueapplications

New K&T Systems

Integration

Evolutionary processes of convergence and divergence in S&T

B

New K&T Parts

CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCEAInnovation

evolutionary spiralKnowledge confluence

S

T

The spiral is driven by the added-value goal through the convergence of domains S, in the external context ENV (imagine a “tornado” or “hurricane” with surrounding air flow and Earth rotation). After Refs. 1 (Roco 2002) and 6 (CKTS Report 2013) MC Roco,

Nov 10 2016

ENV

Convergence of knowledge, technology and society is guided by six general principles

A. The interdependence in nature and society

B. Evolutionary processes of convergence and divergence

C. System-logic deduction in decisions

D. Higher-level cross-domain languages

E. Confluence of resources leading to system changes (S curve)

F. Vision-inspired basic research for long-term challenges

PRINCIPLES FORCONVERGENCE

Ref: Science and technology convergence, J Nanopart Res (2016) 18:211 MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

Three implemented stages of S&T Convergence

- Nano, NBIC, society ecosystem -


Three stages of convergence(Ref 6: CKTS, Springer, 2013)

I. Nanoscale Science, Engineering and Technology “Nanotechnology”

Integrates disciplines and knowledge of matter from the nanoscale

II. Nano-Bio-Info-Cognitive Converging Technologies “NBIC”

Integrates foundational and emerging technologies from basic elements using similar system architectures

III. Convergence of Knowledge, Technology and Society“CKTS”

Integrates the essential platforms of human activity using five convergence principles

MC. Roco, Nov 10 2016

NSFHHS/NIH

DHS

NRC

HHS/FDA

CPSC ITC

DOC/ USPTO

HHS/CDC/NIOSH

DOC/BIS

USDA/FS

DOEd

DODDOE

NASA

DOC/NIST

EPA

DOT

DOTr

DOJ

IC/DNI

DOS

USDA/NIFAUSDA/ARS

DOI/ USGS

OMBOSTP

DOC/EDA

DOL

U.S. National Nanotechnology Initiative, 2000-2030

I. Nanotechnology divergence

OSTP

Breakout of NNI funding by program component areas in the 2017 Budget Request: evolving with priorities


EHS budget share– 7%

I. National Nanotechnology Initiative, 2016 Nanotechnology Signature Initiatives

Sustainable Nanomanufacturing www.nano.gov/NSINanomanufacturing

Nanoelectronics for 2020 and Beyond www.nano.gov/NSINanoelectronics

Water Sustainability through Nanotechnology www.nano.gov/node/1577

Nanotechnology Knowledge Infrastructure www.nano.gov/NKIPortal

Nanotechnology for Sensors www.nano.gov/SensorsNSIPortal

Other considered topics are related to: nanomodular systems, nanomedicine, nanocellulose, nanophotonics, nano-city. Completed: Nanotechnology for Solar Energy (2011-2015)


NanoModular Materials andSystems by Design, NSF/WTEC, 2016

http://www.wtec.org/nmsd/docs/NMSD-FinalReport-Web-Lowres.pdfMC Roco, Nov 10 2016

Energy-Efficient Computing: from Devicesto Architectures (E2CDA)

port data

E2CDA invests in radical new approaches –from brain- inspired architectures to hybriddigital-analog designs

Partnership between NSF (ENG and CISE) andSemiconductor Research Corporation (SRC)

I. Nanotechnology-inspired Grand Challenge “Brain like computing”

combining National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI), National Strategic Computing Initiative (NSCI) & BRAIN Initiative

• Nanotechnology-Inspired Grand Challenge for Future Computing (DOD, DARPA, DOE, IARPA, NSF), announced by OSTP on Oct 21, 2015: http://www.nano.gov/futurecomputing

• Purpose: “Create a new type of computer that can proactively interpret and learn from data, solve unfamiliar problems using what it has learned, and operate with the energy efficiency of the human brain.”

Also: pattern recognition, human like simultaneous perception of information from various sources including the five senses, intelligence from the bottom with materials that compute (like tissues & neuromorphics), simultaneous actions, natural communication.


Ref: Intelligent Cognitive Assistants (ICA) report, 2016The report is available on www.nsf.gov/nano (4th item) and www.semiconductors.org/issues/research/research/

Intelligent cognitive assistants2016 workshop (sponsored by NSF, SIA, SRC)

Systems that are highly useful to humans, specifically on the topic of Harnessing Machine Intelligence to Augment Human Cognition and Human Problem-Solving Capabilities – e.g., research that drives towards “Intelligent Cognitive Assistants”


MachinesHuman Centered Cognitive

Engineered SystemsSmart Machines

Achieve functionality Improve

productivity/consistency/quality

Achieve functionality Improve productivity/

consistency/ quality Has some learning/decision

making capacity

Achieve functionality Improve productivity/

consistency/quality Has greater learning/decision

making capacity Collaborate with humans Evolve in time as they learn

Human Centered Cognitive Engineered System

NSF/ENG, Oct 2016

Water Sustainability through Nanotechnology

Research thrusts

• Increase water availability (ex: double the throughput membrane separation systems within 5 years)

• Improve the efficiency of water delivery and use (ex: Develop within 5 years nanotechnology-enabled coatings that reduce by 50% the amount of energy)

• Enable the next-generation water monitoring systems with nanotechnology (ex: continuous, real-time measurement of water quality that are more sensitive, more reliable, use sensors)


http://nanoinformatics.org/2015/agenda/MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

http://nanoinformatics.org/2015/agenda/

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

NSF

-NSE

Aw

ard/

Pape

r/Pa

tent

Per

cent

age

Year

Top 20 Journals' Nano Paper Percentage 3 Selected Journals' Nano Paper Percentage Title-claim Search's Nano Patent Percentage NSF Nano New Award Percentage Revenues Market / GDP

•NSE Awards started to use Combined Keywords from 2011•For Top 20 journals, 3 selected journals, title-claim search of nano patents, Combined keywords are used since 2014.

Percentage rate of penetration of nanotechnology in NSF awards, WoS papers and USPTO patents (1991-2015)

Searched by keywords in the title/abstract/claims (update Encyclopedia Nanoscience, Roco, 2016)

2015 NSF grants ~ 14%

2015 Top 20 nano J. ~ 12%

2015 All journals ~ 5.2%

2015 USPTO patents ~ 2.5%

Est. Market / US GDP: 2014 ~ 2% ; 2015 ~ 2.6% ; 2020 ~ 7% (if 25% market growth rate)MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

Nanotechnology penetration in economy(Nano 2020 study)

U.S. 2000 2010 Est. in 2020

Semiconductor industry 0 60% 100%

New nanostructured catalysts 0 ~ 35% ~ 50%

Pharmaceutics 0 ~ 15% ~ 50%

Wood 0 0 ~ 20%


U.S.: Return on Annual Federal Investment in Nanotechnology R&D (2014)

* The corresponding R&D input was about 10 times smaller ten years ago, while the effects are measured now

** Estimated taxes 20%

$1.8B* NNI +states R&D

~ $4.0B industry R&D

$Bindustry operating cost

~$370B** Final Products

~740,000 Jobs***

~$74B Taxes

~$4.0B industry R&D*** Est. $500,000/ year/ job

Use NSF and Lux Research dataMC Roco, Nov 10 2016

Conceptualization of “Nanomanufacturing” and “Digital Technology” megatrends (S-curves)

(GAO-14-181SP Forum on Nanomanufacturing, Report to Congress, 2014)

- A general purpose technology- Could eventually match or

outstrip the digital revolutionin terms of economic and societal impact once have been prepared the people, methods & infrastructure

~ 20102014

~ 2% of GDP in US ( est. ~$400B, ~ 40% ann. rate in 20011-2014, Lux Research)


Twelve global trends to 2020 10 year perspective, www.wtec.org/nano2/

• Theory, modeling & simulation: x1000 faster, essential design• “Direct” measurements – x6000 brighter, accelerate R&D&use• A shift from “passive” to “active” nanostructures/nanosystems• Nanosystems- some self powered,self repairing, dynamic, APM• Penetration of nanotechnology in industry - toward mass use;

catalysts, electronics; innovation– platforms, consortia• Nano-EHS – more predictive, integrated with nanobio & env.• Personalized nanomedicine - from monitoring to treatment• Photonics, electronics, magnetics – new integrated capabilities• Energy photosynthesis, storage use – solar economic • Enabling and integrating with new areas – bio, info, cognition• Earlier preparing nanotechnology workers – system integration• Governance of nano for societal benefit - institutionalization


Workshop (NSF, 2001): “Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nano-Bio-Information-Cognitive”

NBIC: Synergistic combination of four foundational emerging fields from their basic elements (atoms, bits, genes, and neurons) up and using similar system architecture concepts, for common core goals such as learning, productivity & aging

On this basis: 20 visionary scenarios for 20 years ahead

II. Nano-Bio-Info-CognitiveConverging Technologies

(December 2001 -)


NanobiomedicineNanobiotechnologySynthetic biology; epigeneticsBio-photonics; Microbiome;…

Neuromorphic engng.Synapses to mindSmart environments,Cogno aid devices ..

NanobioinformaticsDNA computingProteomics, ….

Brain simulationCyber networkingPersonalized education..

Nanotechnology Spin-offs : Nanophotonics, plasmonics, materials genome, mesoscale S&E, metamaterials, nanofluidics, carbon electronics, nanosustainability, wood fibers, DNA NT, ..

Spin-offs

Spin-offs

Spin-offs

Spin-offs

Information Technology Spin-offs: Large databases, cyber-physical-social infrastructure, Internet of Things, connected sensorial systems, topical computer-aided design, cyber networks, ...

II. Emergence & divergence of foundational N B I CRe

-com

bine

Ref: 1: Roco & Bainbridge 2013

National Robotics Initiative

InfoCogno Bio

Nano

National Nanotechnology Initiative(nano.gov) (with coordinating office)

Materials Genome

BRAIN Initiative(whitehouse.gov/share/brain-initiative)

National Information Technology R&D(nitrd.gov)(with coordinating office)

Biomedical /Health focus

National Strategic Computing Initiative

Converging foundational technologies (NBIC) leads to II. U.S. emerging S&T initiatives

Ref 9: Roco, “NBIC”, in Handbook of S&T Convergence, 2015

Big Data

NNI Grand Challenges

Brain

–like

Com

putin

g; S

mart

syste

ms

Precision Med

Photonics

Biologycentered

Microbiome

Artificial Intelligence

Genome(s)

OSTP


Architecture, Life, Human-technology

II. NBICExamples initiatives in 2016

Spin-offs enabled by NBIC (in U.S.)• National Nanotechnology Initiative (Brain-Inspired Computation)• National Information Technology R&D (NSCI, Supercomputing)• Human health; Precision Medicine; Microbiome Initiative • BRAIN Initiative (also international)In Core NBIC system:- Requirements for life- DNA control and implications- Human-technology frontier - Digital society and universal big data


Nature (2002): “Futurists predict body swaps for planet hops”

NATURE|VOL 418 | 25 JULY 2002 |www.nature.com/nature

“Direct brain-to-brain communication and the transfer of minds between bodies seem more like the stuff of Hollywood movies than of government reports — but these are among the advances forecast in a recent report by the US National Science Foundation and Department of Commerce. “Improving human performance has been a dream for centuries,” says Mihail Roco, chairman of the government-funded National Nanotechnology Initiative, and lead author of the study. … the report — Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance, released on 8 July — says that the convergence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, computer science and cognitive science may help to break those limits in the next 20 years.”

“Big Data”Data Analytics

High-PerformanceModelingAnd Simulation

Large ScaleData Driven

ModelingAnd Simulation

Data

Inte

nsity

Computational Intensity

Aspirations for Convergence

National Strategic Computing Initiative: Convergent Computing Trends

NBIC2

Personalized

PreventativeParticipatory

Predictive

• Advance cancer detection and treatment w/ reduced side effects• Health data analysis and delivery for real-time health monitoring • Regenerative medicine and advanced prosthetics• Next generation vaccines• Wellness-focused: distributed P4 medicine

Human Health and Physical PotentialGoals Enabled by Convergence

CKTS, 2013MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

United States (2013- )• Federal agencies: NSF, NIH,

DARPA, FDA• Private partners: Allen Institute for

Brain Science, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Kavli Foundation

BRAIN Initiative

NSF

International Brain Initiative, United Nations (19 Sept. 2016 - )

EU: Human Brain ProjectCanada: CBRAINJapan, China brain projects

Glasser et al 2016


What are the indispensable requirements for Life?- Convergence of Chemistry, Synthetic Biology, Nanotechnology, Philosophy, … -

What are:• The physical rules for cell assembly?• The minimum genome required to

sustain life?• The interrelationships of genome and

phenome?• The environmental applications and

implications of synthetic biology?

MembraneEncapsulation

Information Stability

RNA World

DNA

Pre-biotic Chemistry

O2 from Photosynthesis

Ocean

Land

The Living Environment

UC CEIN Predictive Toxicological Platforms and HTSNanomaterial libraries High throughput screening

(adverse outcome pathway or AOP based)

Tier 2Select animal & organism

testing(short-terms protocols that

reflect the In vitro AOP)

Tier 1Compare Rank

Prioritize

RapidHigh volume

Tiered hazard/risk assessment &exposure-based decision analysis for: Safe implementation, Regulatory decisions, Reduced animal use, Reduced Tier 3 testing, Establishing exposure limits, Structure-activity analysis, Safer design

Cells, bacteria, yeasts, zebrafish

embryos

Similar behavior(Cluster)

Computational ranking/ modeling/ predictions

In vivo hazard ranking and prediction testing

Compositionsmetals, metal oxides,CNTs, graphene, silica,

quantum dots, etc

Combinatorial propertiessize, shape, aspect ratio,

dissolution, band gap, charge,functionalities, coatings etc

New Commercial nanoproductsprofiled against a grid of library

materials or data repository

Andre Nel et al., UCLA

RISK

Hazard

NanoparticleProperties

SystemPropertiesSocial Properties

Functional Assays

Exposure

• Measurement in prescribed system

• Quantifies a meaningful process for exposure, hazard or both

Example of convergent approach in nano-EHS (risk estimation, CEINT, Duke University)

Biouptake / System Transfer

Mark Wiesner et al., Duke U.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Number of NBIC Awards at NSF (1987-2015)Search by combined keywords

About 5% of total NSF new awards since 2009

Fiscal Year

Num

ber

of n

ew N

BIC

aw

ards


Twelve challenging ideas from 2001 NBIC Report for 2030 that are reality or in development in 2015• Hierarchically interconnected world – a reality in 2015• Non intrusive brain-to-brain communication – accepted• Computer Personal advisor – as laptop or cell – at beginning • Brain machine and brain robotics systems – in development• From physics/chemistry to mind and education – in BRAIN R&D• Centers of leaning: for brain to education methods – in function• Regenerative medicine, Gene editing, 3-D print parts - accepted• Nano-info-biomedical developments• Proteases activated by brain - done• Education earlier for NBIC - modules• Intelligent environments – in development• ELSI community – organized in 2013

MC Roco, July 6 2016 MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

Foundational tools – NBIC+

Earth scale platform

Human scale &quality of life

Innovative & responsible governance- System behavior

For societal benefit, human development

Societal values and needs

The conductor suggests societal governance of K&T converging platforms for societal benefit.

Ref: 6: “Convergence of knowledge, technology and society: Beyond NBIC” 2013

Human activity system

Societal scale platform

III. Convergence of Knowledge, Technology and Society

Innovation circuit

Syste

m fee

dbac

k


Convergence of Knowledge and Technology (CKTS) leads to III. U.S. global society-oriented initiatives

Societal

Earth Human

NBIC+

SunShot GC (DOE..)

Asteroid GC (NASA..)

Global Change Research Program(Global Change.gov) (with coord office)

Advanced manufacturing: National Network for Manufacturing Innovation (NNMI)

(http://www.manufacturing.gov/nnmi) (with program office)

Smart and Connected Communities

Strategy for Arctic Region

STEAM EducationInitiative (NSF, DoEd)

(Ref 8: “Principles and methods that facilitate convergence”)

Climate Action Plan Innovation

Space Station (NASA..)

Aging Population

Productivity, Sustainability, Equality, Safe

I-Corps

OSTP


III. Global Society: Examples of initiatives in 2016

Spin-offs enabled by CKTS (in U.S.)• Global Change: Clean Energy• The National Network for Manufacturing Innovation• STEAM Education• Smart and Connected CommunitiesIn CKTS core system- Origin of Universe and Earth evolution- Societal sustainability and stability - Production and wellness convergence- Morality aspects (conflict resolution, inequalities, safety)


The National Network for Manufacturing Innovation (NNMI) – 7 year plans

Experiment in ecosystem establishment in “valley of death” All the institutes will deal with nanotechnology to some extent Current list - 10 institutes (http://manufacturing.gov/ ):

• National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute (DoD/DOE) FY12• Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation (DoD) FY14• Lightweight and Modern Metals Manufacturing (DoD) FY14• Next Generation Power Electronics Manufacturing (DOE) FY14• Clean Energy Manufacturing Innovation Institute for Composites

Materials and Structures (DOE) FY15• Photonics (DoD) FY15• Hybrid Flexible Electronics (DoD) FY15• Revolutionary Fibers and Textiles (DoD) FY16• Two open competition centers (NIST) FY16-17


Global Action Possibilities • International Grand Challenges: Nano, Brain, others

• An international convergence CKTS network

• Government coordination needed: “science of convergence”, “convergence technology platforms”, “collaborative culture”

• Production- , cognition-, biomedicine- current convergence

• Cross-domain programs in universities & funding agencies

• Principles of convergence & culture for conflict resolution

• OECD new committee on convergence created in 2014MC Roco, Nov 10 2016

NSF/NNI and International Perspective


AK - $0

$1.21$1.73

HI - $0.74

$2.22$1.12

$1.89 $3.44

$0.42 $0.89

$1.50

------MA - $4.67

$1.40

------MD - $2.17

$0.11

$2.23

$1.73

$2.44

$4.63

$1.80

$1.92

$1.41

$7.48

$1.78

------NH - $1.86

------------------NJ - $1.57

$3.65

$0.25

$4.12

$1.64

$1.11

$2.41

$6.00

PR - $0.58

$2.34

-------RI - $3.48

$3.01

$4.24

$0.95

$1.53

$2.06$3.80

---------------------VT - $1.52

$2.40

$1.95

$6.80$1.24

$0.00

---------CT - $3.21

----------------------DC - $7.14------------DE - $9.8

$0.81

Per Capita NEW FY16 Nano$<= 1.11 1.11 - 1.531.53 - 1.92 1.92 - 2.412.41 - 4.12 4.12 - 9.8

AK 0; AL 1.21; AR 1.4; AZ 1.78; CA 2.34; CO 6.80; CT 3.21; DC 7.14; DE 9.80; FL 0.81; GA 1.73; HI 0.74; IA 2.22; ID 1.12; IL 1.89; IN 3.44; KS 0.42; KY 0.89; LA 1.50; MA 4.67; MD 2.17; ME 0.11; MI 2.23; MN 1.73; MO 2.44; MS 4.63; MT 1.80; NC 1.92; ND 1.41; NE 7.48; NH 1.86; NJ 1.57; NM 3.65; NV 0.25; NY 4.12; OH 1.64; OK 1.11; OR 2.41; PA 6.0; PR 0.58; RI 3.48; SC 3.01; SD 4.24; TN 0.95; TX 1.53; UT 2.06; VA 3.8; VT 1.52; WA 2.4; WI 1.95; WV 1.24; WY 0

NSF’s NSE amount for NEW awards per capita, by state

FY 2016: U.S. average amount = $2.41 / capita

#1 DE $9.8/capita in 2016

Rank

FY 16 NEWAmt.

1 DE2 DC3 NE4 PA5 MA6 MS

AK - $5.34

$34.11$22.18

HI - $3.01

$23.90$15.88

$48.96 $43.10

$23.23 $17.38

$17.27

------MA - $128.49

$29.91

------MD - $46.46

$9.34

$26.99

$34.47

$16.38

$23.83

$24.72

$34.49

$32.60

$58.68

$35.69

------NH - $24.16

------------------NJ - $27.58

$33.35

$7.58

$62.88

$29.30

$18.41

$27.65

$53.82

PR - $18.48

$38.67

-------RI - $86.49

$21.76

$45.86

$16.02

$21.84

$30.02$28.00

------------------VT - $21.35

$26.25

$44.48

$60.10$24.11

$21.37

---------CT - $36.19

----------------------DC - $115.24------------DE - $78.49

$12.28

PerCap NEW NANO$ FY00-16<= 17.27 17.27 - 23.2323.23 - 27.65 27.65 - 34.4734.47 - 48.96 48.96 - 128.5

AK 5.34; AL 34.11; AR 29.91; AZ 35.69; CA 38.67; CO 60.1; CT 36.19; DC 115.24; DE 78.49; FL 12.28; GA 22.18; HI 3.01; IA 23.9; ID 15.88; IL 48.96; IN 43.1; KS 23.23; KY 17.38; LA 17.27; MA 128.49; MD 46.46; ME 9.34; MI 26.99; MN 34.47; MO 16.38; MS 23.83; MT 24.72; NC 34.49; ND 32.6; NE 58.68; NH 24.16; NJ 27.58; NM 33.35; NV 7.58; NY 62.88; OH 29.3; OK 18.41; OR 27.65; PA 53.82; PR 18.48; RI 86.49; SC 21.76; SD 45.86; TN 16.02; TX 21.84; UT 30.02; VA 28; VT 21.35; WA 26.25; WI 44.48; WV 24.11; WY 21.37

NSF’s NS&E amount new awards per capitaFYs 2000 - 2016: U.S. average amount ~ $35 / capita

2015: Over 6,000 active awards(abstracts on www.nsf.gov/nano)

Rank

FY 2000-2016 NEWAmt.

1 MA2 DC3 RI4 DE5 NY6 CO

#1 MA $128.49/capita (2000-2016)

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,00038,00040,00042,00044,00046,00048,00050,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

# o

f pu

blic

atio

ns

USAJapanEU27P.R. ChinaKorea

Nanotechnology publications in the WoS: 1990 - 2015“Title-abstract” search for nanotechnology by keywords for six regions

(update of NANO2, Fig 1 (Ref. 3) using the method described in (Ref. 6))

2000 - 2015 Worldwide annual growth rate ~ 16%

U.S./World ~ 29.5%

in 2001-2005 U.S./World~ 21% in 2015

Rapid, uneven growth per countriesMC. Roco, Nov 10 2016

61* Started to use Combined Keywords from 2014

U.S. leads with about 66% (at least one author from US)

Five countries’ contributions to Top 3 Journals (Nature, Science, PNAS) in 2015, by individual journals

USA

Germany

MC. Roco, Dec 9 2016

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

USAJapanP.R. ChinaGermanyFranceKorea

Global revenue from nano-enabled products by sector (Lux Research, updated in January 2016) (US / World ~ 32%)

Sector (all in US$ Billion)

2012 (survey)

2013 (survey)

2014 (survey)

Building materials $28.837 $44.564 $66.891

Materials & manufacturing $457.936 $625.508 $826.704

Electronics & IT $265.306 $377.631 $527.137

Healthcare & life sciences $74.742 $103,350 $139,597

Energy & Environment $25,668 $38.478 $55.737

Total (world) $853 $1,190 $1,616Annual Increase Rate (%) 40% 36%


Other NSF specific initiative in 2016-

• Innovations at the Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water Systems

• Risk and Resilience• Smart and Connected Communities• Clean Energy Technology• Cyber-Enabled Materials, Manufacturing, and Smart

Systems - Advanced Manufacturing• Innovation Corps (I-Corps)


Innovations for Food, Energy, andWater Systems

Quantitative and computational modeling

Real-time, cyber-enabled interfaces

Innovative solutions to critical FEWproblems

Workforce and education

Illustration credit: Nicolle R. Fuller, Sayo-Art LLC

NSF/ENG

10 big ideas (NSF, 2016-)

• Understanding the Rules of Life: Predicting Phenotype• Work at the Human-Technology Frontier: Shaping the Future• Windows on the Universe: The Era of Multi-messenger Astrophysics• Navigating the New Arctic• Harnessing Data for 21st Century Science and Engineering• The Quantum Leap: Leading the Next Quantum Revolution

• Growing Convergent Research and Education at NSF• NSF INCLUDES: Enhancing Science and Engineering through Diversity• Mid-scale Research Infrastructure• NSF 2050: The Integrative Foundational Fund


Several sustainability challenges

• Are renewable water/energy/food/materials sources sufficient?• Thermonuclear energy will be controlled, economically used?• New technology convergence platforms will be sustainable?• How “smart systems” (incl. AI, NBIC) will change sustainability• DNA control and hybrid nanobiodevices will have safe

regulations and suitable organizations? Life security.• International collaboration and competition: NBIC production

(OECD), US-EU collaboration, databases, labeling

Others topics to be discussed in the following SNO PanelsMC Roco, Nov 10 2016

Related publications1. “Coherence and Divergence of Megatrends in Science and Engineering”

(Roco, JNR, 2002)2. “Nanotechnology: Convergence with Modern Biology and Medicine”,

(Roco, Current Opinion in Biotechnology, 2003) 3. NANO1: “Nanotechnology research directions: Vision for the next decade”

(Roco, Williams & Alivisatos, WH, 1999, also Springer, 316p, 2000)4. NANO 2020: “Nanotechnology research directions for societal needs in

2020” (Roco, Mirkin & Hersam, Springer, 690p, 2011a)5. NBIC: “Converging technologies for improving human performance: nano-

bio-info-cognition” (Roco & Bainbridge, Springer, 468p, 2003)6. CKTS 2030: “Convergence of knowledge, technology and society:

Beyond NBIC” (Roco, Bainbridge, Tonn & Whitesides; Springer, 604p, 2013b) 7. The new world of discovery, invention, and innovation: convergence of

knowledge, technology and society” (Roco & Bainbridge, JNR 2013a, 15)8. “Principles and methods that facilitate convergence” (Roco, Springer

Reference, Handbook of Science and Technology Convergence, 2015) 9. HSTC: “Handbook of Science and Technology Convergence”

(Bainbridge & Roco, 2016)

(5 re

ports

with

R&D

reco

mm

enda

tions

for 2

020)

plenary i-future of nanotechnology

Documents