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Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change in Portugal Instituto Superior Técnico – Universidade de Lisboa Mestrado Integrado - Engenharia do Ambiente Disciplina - Gestão de Ambiente e Território Lisbon, April 16th 2020 João Telha

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Page 1: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change in Portugal

Instituto Superior Técnico – Universidade de Lisboa

Mestrado Integrado - Engenharia do AmbienteDisciplina - Gestão de Ambiente e Território

Lisbon, April 16th 2020

João Telha

Page 2: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

Contents:

1. Basic concepts: climate change adaptation and vulnerability

2. Local climate change adaptation in Portugal

3. The ClimAdaPT.Local project: context, objectives and results

4. Methodology for the development of EMAAC – Municipal

Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation

5. New generations of municipal, intermunicipal and

metropolitan climate change adaptation plans

6. State of the art: the Lisbon Metropolitan Area Adaptation Plan

7. Lessons of experience

Page 3: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

Climate change trends and scenarios

What’s the problem?

United Nations - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Fifth Assessement Report (2013-2014)

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What are the risks?

Regional key risks and potential for risk reduction

IPCC - Fifth Assessement Report (2013-2014)

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When will it happen? Or is it already happening?

Number of natural catastrophes world wide, 1980-2017 (most relevant events , by risk type) Munich Reinsurance Co (2018)

Main consequences of extreme climate events in the Viseu Dão Lafões region, 2001-2017

Plano Intermunicipal de Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas de Viseu Dão Lafões (2017)

Page 6: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

Strategies for climate change:

mitigation and adaptation

How do we solve it?

ClimateChange

Impacts

Responses

Mitigation Adaptation

Direct effectIndirect effect

Greehouse GasConcentrations

Page 7: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

Analysis of multiple parameters that

determine climate vulnerability

So, we must adapt, but… what, where, why and when?

Climate

Exposure Sensitivity

Potential impact

Physical/natural conditions

Social/economicconditions

Adaptation capacity

Vulnerability

Page 8: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

Creation of IPCC

1992 1995 20102007 2009 20132011 201420011988 2002 2009 2015 2016 2017 2018

United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change

IPCC Second Assessment

Report

IPCC ThirdAssessment

Report

SIAMProject

IPCC FourthAssessment

reportWhite paper -

Adapting to climate change: towards a

European framework for

action

National Strategy for Climate Change

AdaptationENAAC

Europe 2020 Strategy

CommonStrategic

Framework (Cohesion

Policy)

EuropeanAdaptationStrategy

IPCC FifthAssessment

Report

National Strategy for Climate Change

AdaptationENAAC 2020

adapt.localnetwork

2015

ClimAdaPT.Local

ADAPT.17

Local climate changeadaptation in Portugal

ADAPT.18

Global

European

National

2019

ADAPT.19

Milestones:

Page 9: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

2010 2015

ENAAC AdaPT Programme

"The municipalities will have

enormous importance in

terms of adaptation to

climate change. (...) it will be

at this level that many of the

main adaptation measures

will finally be put into

practice.

"This is a project that seeks

the training of local

government agents

(municipalities and municipal

companies) for the

development of Local

Strategies for Climate Change

Adaptation"

ENAAC 2020 XXI Government Programme

"Provide for the mandatory

definition of municipal and / or

intermunicipal strategies for

adaptation to climate change,

depending on local realities,

with necessary transposition for

land use management plans, in

particular for the Municipal

Master Plans (PDM)"

"Stresses, in particular, the

importance of promoting the

integration of climate change

adaptation into territorial

management instruments at

the local level (...)

(…) This effort should be used

later to generalize the

integration of adaptation to

the entire national territory.”

Local climate changeadaptation in Portugal

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2009 – 2015: First generation of

Municipal Climate Change AdaptationPlans

• Cascais

• Sintra

• Almada

Local climate changeadaptation in Portugal

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2015 – 2016: Municipal Strategies for

Climate Change Adaptation

• 26 beneficiary municipalities, from

every NUTS III

+

• Almada, Cascais and Sintra (project

partners)

+

• Mafra (adherent)

Local climate changeadaptation in Portugal

Page 12: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

2017 – 2019: Municipal Plans for

Climate Change Adaptation

• Alfândega da Fé

• Águeda

• Ílhavo (post-ClimAdaPT)

• Leiria (post-ClimAdaPT)

• Lagos

• Loulé (post-ClimAdaPT)

• Faro

• Oeiras

• Viseu

Local climate changeadaptation in Portugal

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2017 – 2019: Dissemination of

intermunicipal (NUTS III) planning

• Metropolitan Areas of Lisboa and

Porto

• 17 Intermunicipal communities

Local climate changeadaptation in Portugal

Page 14: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

AdaPT Programme

Funding:

Web Portal with easy access, by the general

public and other project promoters, to

systematized information on climate

scenarios, of a regional nature.

Project aimed at training local administration

agents for the development of Local Strategies

for Climate Change Adaptation .

Integrate and complement environmental

education in the field of climate change, in the

aspects of mitigation and adaptation, in pilot

schools. Prize for the best project to

implement measures related to climate change

in the school environment.

5 projects to support the development of

studies or implementation of measures (pilot

or demonstration) identified as relevant in the

field of the ENAAC sectorial groups.

Project areas under the AdaPT programme:

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ClimAdaPT.Local project

Funded at 100%: 1.499.862€

Duration: from October 2014 to

December 2016

General objective of the call (AdaPT Program):

"The improvement of the capacity of Portuguese municipalities to incorporate adaptation to climate change in their planning instruments and their local interventions"

Specific objectives of the project:

• Produce 26 Municipal Strategies for Climate

Change Adaptation (EMAAC)

• Training of 52 municipal technicians in adaptation to climate change

• Communication and creation of a web platform

for municipal adaptation to climate change

• Promote the creation of a network of

municipalities for local adaptation to climate

change

• Produce guidelines for the integration of

adaptation into municipal planning

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ClimAdaPT.Local project

Technical and scientific consortium

Leader:

Consultancy companies:

Universities and research centres

Municipalities:

Non-governmental organizations:

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ClimAdaPT.Local project

Selection criteria for the beneficiary

municipalities:

• Geographic diversity (one

municipality per NUTS III)

• Diversity of climate vulnerabilities

• Diversity of socioeconomic

realities

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ClimAdaPT.Local project

Results accomplished and exceeded:

27 EMAAC - Municipal Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation concluded

and approved by the Municipal

Assemblies

Each EMAAC was developed by the

technical staff of municipalities (with training and technical and scientific

resources provided by the

ClimAdaPT.Local consortium)

The adaptation strategies were widely

discussed inside the municipalities and with local stakeholders in workshops

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ClimAdaPT.Local project

Results accomplished and exceeded:

Training and certification of 56 members of municipal staff - 2 from

each municipality, with different

backgrounds (land use management, urban planning, environmental

management and civil protection…)

Production of a methodological guide

and seven training manuals

Page 20: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

ClimAdaPT.Local project

Results accomplished and exceeded:

Creation of an Online Platform for Municipal Adaptation, that made

available to the public all the

products of the project:

• methodological guides

• local climate fiches

• videos of the technical training workshops sessions

• interviews with climate and

adaptation specialists

• Web links with ‘Portal do Clima’

and other AdaPT projects

Page 21: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

ClimAdaPT.Local project

Results accomplished and exceeded:

Foundation of the adapt.localMunicipalities Network, with a letter

of commitment and an action plan

for 2 years

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ClimAdaPT.Local project

General impact of the project

• 2,500 participants in all project events

• 100 references in national and

regional media (TV, radio and newspapers)

• Comic book “Reportagem Especial”

• Presence of ClimAdaPT.Local at COP22 (Med CCA Award)

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ClimAdaPT.Local project

Methodology to develop Municipal

Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation (EMAAC)

“ADAM – Apoio à Decisão em Adaptação Local” methodology(ClimAdaPT.Local)

“Adaptation Wizard” methodology(UK Climate Impacts Programme)

Page 24: Planning local and regional adaptation to climate change ... · vulnerability indexes Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites PMAAC Área Metropolitana de

Methodology to develop Municipal

Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation (EMAAC)

ClimAdaPT.Local project

Essential contents of an EMAAC

• Climate change projections

• Analysis of local climate risks, impacts and

vulnerabilities

• Identification and evaluation of adaptation responses

• Guidance for integrating climate adaptation in

local land use management plans

• Models for the management and monitoring of

the adaptation strategy

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The third generation of local adaptation planning

Evolution beyond ClimAdaPT.Local

Greater knowledge of the climate and the territory:

• Bioclimatic evaluation

• Analysis of current and future climate risks

(modeling)

• Sensitivity analysis (exposed elements)

• Analysis of current and future vulnerability

indexes (relationship between climate risks,

climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity)

Better integration of the sectoral dimension:

• Systematic analysis, by sectors, of current and future climate vulnerabilities

Better operationalization of the plans:

• Action plans and project fiches

• Financing programs

• Specific directives for the integration of adaptation in land use management and

planning

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Bioclimatic evaluation

Local Climate Zones in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

Direct data collection with thermohygrometers in the city of Leiria

Plano Municipal de Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas de Leiria (2018)

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Analysis of present and futureclimate risks

Slope instability in the AML: (1) spatialization of the current danger; (2) current susceptibility to danger; (3) future susceptibility to danger (2071-2100, RCP8.5)

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

(1)

(2) (3)

Flood risk areas in the city of Lagos

Plano Municipal de Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas de Lagos (2018)

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Analysis of present and futuresensitivity to climate risks

Costa Nova do Prado (Ílhavo): buildings and facilities sensitive to coastal flooding and storm surge in climate change scenario (2071-2100, RCP8.5)

Plano Municipal de Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas de Ílhavo (2018)

Costa da Caparica (Almada): Area sensitive to coastal flood and storm surge in present and future climate change scenarios (2071-2100, RCP8.5)

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Analysis of sectoral climatesensitivity

Energy infrastructure sensitive to forest fires

Plano Municipal de Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas de Leiria (2018)

Annual distribution of the UTCI – Universal Thermal Climate Index (frequency of days, in %)

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

Daily mortality in the Oeste region during the 2018 heat wave

Plano Intermunicipal de Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas do Oeste (2019)

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Mapping of current climate impacts

Main consequences of extreme climate events in the Viseu DãoLafões region, 2001-2017

Plano Intermunicipal de Adaptação às Alterações Climáticas de Viseu Dão Lafões (2017)

Local Climate Impacts Profile

Identification and characterization of extreme weather events in a municipality, its impacts and consequences

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Analysis of climate vulnerability indexes

Methodology to evaluate present and future climate vulnerabilites

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

Heat wave vulnerability indexes, present and future (RCP 8.5, 2071-2100)

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

Drought vulnerability indexes, present and future (RCP 8.5, 2071-2100)

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

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The fourth generation ofmunicipal planning: climate action

Areas of intervention

Adaptation Mitigation

Governance and

knowledge

• d1. Temperature increase

• d2. Precipitation reduction and

droughts

• d3. Sea level rise

• d4. Extreme precipitation events

Areas of intervention

Areas of intervention

• d8. Research

• d9. Monitoring

• d10. Awareness

• d11. Governance

• d5. Reducing GHG emissions

• d6. Energy efficiency

• d7. Energy transition

Operational approach of PMAC Loulé

PMAC Loulé (2020)

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Leader:

Partners:

Subcontractors:

The metropolitan / intermunicipal approach

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Methodological programme

Phase 1

Base scenario for adaptation

Scope, context and objectives

Phase 2

Impacts and vulnerabilities

STAGE

01.

Climate contexualizationSTAGE

02.

Bioclimatic scenarizationSTAGE

03.

Evaluation of the institutional

environment at local scale

STAGE

04.

Socioeconomic contextualizationSTAGE

05.

Evaluation of present climate

impacts and vulnerabilities

STAGE

06.

Evaluation of future climate

impacts and vulnerabilities

STAGE

07.

Phase 3

Adaptation options

Adaptation measures at metropolitan,

municipal and sectoral level

STAGE

08.

Integration of adaptation in municipal,

intermunicipal and metropolitan planning

STAGE

09.

Models, processes and instruments for

management, governance and monitoring

STAGE

10.

February 2018 – July 2018 May 2018 – December 2018 January 2019 – December 2019

ENAAC sectors approach

▪ Agriculture and forestry

▪ Biodiversity and landscape

▪ Economy

▪ Energy

▪ Water resources

▪ Human health

▪ Civil protection

▪ Transports and

communications

▪ Coastal areas and

sea

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Complementary approaches toclimate vulnerability analysis

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Information system

CLIMATE VULNERABILITY

Climatevariability

Exposure to climate risks

Local climateimpacts

Adaptivecapacity

Social andeconomic

contexts andscenarios

Sensitivity to climate

stymulus

Climatescenarios

PMAAC-AMLInformation System

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Bioclimatic scenarization

URCH - Homogeneous Climate Response Units in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

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Analysis of present and futureclimate risks

Slope instability in the AML: (1) spatialization of the current danger; (2) current susceptibility to danger; (3) future susceptibility to danger (2071-2100, RCP8.5)

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

(1)

(2) (3)

Forest fires – Heuristic model (PMDFCI)

Soil erosion – Universal Soil Loss Equation

Landslides – Modelling with informative value (REN)

Fast floods – Hidrogeomorfologic modelling + Municipal maps of flood areas

Estuarine floods – Hidrodinamic modelling

Coastal floods, erosion and cliff retreat – Coastal landuse management plans

Wind storms – WAsP Eng modelling

Heat Waves – Combination of very hot days andtropical nights

Droughts – Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

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Analysis of climate sensitivity

1. Analysis of the strategic importance of each sector for

the metropolitan area

2. Analysis of the present context of each sector in AML

and its future perspectives

3. Analysis of the importance of the climate and the

potential impacts of climate change in each setor

4. Evaluation of the territorial sensitivity of AML and its

municipalities to climate stymulus

• Bibliography

• Statistics

• Spatial analysis (sensitivity indicators, GIS)

• Specific methodologies of analysis for certain

sectors

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Analysis of climate sensitivity

Exposição a riscos climáticos

Indicadores de sensibilidade a estímulos climáticos

Elementos expostos analisados

Área (%) suscetível a incêndios rurais/florestais

Floresta sensível a fogos florestais (ha)

Espaços de florestas e de florestas

abertas e vegetação arbustiva e

herbácea - Carta de Uso e Ocupação do

Solo COS2010 (DGT – Direção Geral do

Território)

Património classificado sensível a fogos florestais (ha)

Património classificado e em vias de

classificação e zonas especiais de

proteção do património cultural (DGPC –

Direção Geral do Património Cultural)

Valores ecológicos sensíveis a fogos florestais (ha)

Áreas Protegidas, Rede Natura e Sítios

Ramsar (ICNF – Instituto de

Conservação da Natureza e das

Florestas)

Alojamentos sensíveis a fogos florestais (nº)

Censos 2011 - Base Geográfica de

Edifícios (INE – Instituto Nacional de

Estatística)

População sensível a fogos florestais (Pop/km2)

Censos 2011, Densidade populacional

segundo as subsecções estatísticas -

Base Geográfica de Referenciação de

Informação (INE – Instituto Nacional de

Estatística)

Infraestruturas de transporte sensíveis a fogos

florestais (m)

Rede viária principal e rede ferroviária –

Planos Diretores Municipais (Câmaras

Municipais)

Área (%) inundável por cheias rápidas, cheias progressivas e inundações estuarinas

Património classificado sensível a cheias (ha)

Património classificado e em vias de

classificação e zonas especiais de

proteção do património cultural (DGPC –

Direção Geral do Património Cultural)

Zonas de localização de atividades económicas

(indústria, comércio e serviços) sensíveis a cheias

(ha/nº)

Áreas industriais, comerciais e de

serviços – Planos Diretores Municipais

(Câmaras Municipais)

Alojamentos sensíveis a cheias (nº)

Censos 2011 - Base Geográfica de

Edifícios (INE – Instituto Nacional de

Estatística)

População sensível a cheias (Pop/km2)

Censos 2011, Densidade populacional

segundo as subsecções estatísticas -

Base Geográfica de Referenciação de

Informação (INE – Instituto Nacional de

Estatística)

Infraestruturas de transporte sensíveis a cheias (m)

Rede viária principal e rede ferroviária –

Planos Diretores Municipais (Câmaras

Municipais)

Área (%) em zona de risco de inundações e galgamentos costeiros em litoral

Atividades turísticas sensíveis a inundações costeiras

(nº)

Empreendimentos turísticos existentes

(Turismo de Portugal)

Alojamentos sensíveis a inundações costeiras (nº)

Censos 2011 - Base Geográfica de

Edifícios (INE – Instituto Nacional de

Estatística)

Indicators of sensitivityto climate stymulus, per risk type (excerpt)

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

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Evaluation of the adaptivecapacity

Territorial basedadaptive capacityindicators and index: values and relativeposition in themetropolitan context(example for themunicipality of Setúbal)

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

Sector Indicadores de capacidade adaptativa Valor Posição

AML

Agricultura e florestas Proporção de produtores agrícolas singulares (%) com escolaridade

de nível secundário ou superior 18,43 3º

Biodiversidade e

paisagem Áreas protegidas (%) 53,6 1º

Economia

VAB/empresa (índice, AML=100) do sector indústria 243 2º

VAB/empresa (índice, AML=100) do sector comércio 56 8º

VAB/empresa (índice, AML=100) do sector serviços 60 6º

Energia Capacidade adaptativa no sector energético 2,8 13º

Recursos hídricos

Garantia intrínseca da disponibilidade de água (índice, AML=100) 143 1º

Índice de conhecimento infraestrutural (AML=100) 115 6º

Saúde humana

Habitantes por centro saúde do SNS (n.º) 121.061 3º

Proporção (%) de população residente sem ar condicionado 83,9 8º

Segurança de pessoas

e bens

Bombeiros/1.000 residentes (n.º ) 1,9 8º

Bombeiros/população sensível a riscos (n.º ) 0,02 17º

Zonas costeiras e mar

Investimento em defesa costeira 2003-2023 (M€) 1,155 6º

População residente no litoral “em risco” com mais de 65 anos (%) 23,12 13º

População residente no litoral “em risco” com ensino superior (%) 8,31 14º

Índice de capacidade adaptativa 0,43 4º

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Analysis of present climateimpacts

Extreme weather events in AML, 2000-2018

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

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Evaluation of present climatevulnerabilities

3. Analysis of recent climate impacts(validaton)

1. Analysis of present climaterisks (exposure)

2. Analysis of sensitivity to climate stymulus

4. Analysis of adaptive capacity

5. Climate vulnerability indexes (per type of climate risk)

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Evaluation of present climatevulnerabilities

Índice de vulnerabilidade

Exposição a riscos climáticos (40%)

Indicadores de sensibilidade a estímulos climáticos (40%)

Indicadores de capacidade adaptativa (20%)

Incêndios rurais/florestais

Área (%) suscetível a incêndios rurais/florestais

– Floresta sensível a fogos florestais (ha)

– Património classificado sensível a

fogos florestais (ha)

– Valores ecológicos sensíveis a fogos

florestais (ha)

– Alojamentos sensíveis a fogos

florestais (nº)

– População sensível a fogos florestais

(Pop/km2)

– Infraestruturas de transporte sensíveis

a fogos florestais (m)

– Áreas protegidas (%)

– VAB/empresa indústria

– VAB/empresa comércio

– VAB/empresa serviços

– n.º Bombeiros/1000 residentes

– n.º Bombeiros/pop sensível

(residente em área de risco)

Cheias rápidas Área (%) inundável por cheias rápidas

– Património classificado sensível a

cheias (ha)

– Zonas de localização de atividades

económicas (indústria, comércio e

serviços) sensíveis a cheias (ha/nº)

– Alojamentos sensíveis a cheias (nº)

– População sensível a cheias (Pop/km2)

– Infraestruturas de transporte sensíveis

a cheias (m)

– VAB/empresa indústria

– VAB/empresa comércio

– VAB/empresa serviços

– n.º Bombeiros/1000 residentes

– n.º Bombeiros/pop sensível

(residente em área de risco)

Cheias progressivas

Área (%) inundável por cheias progressivas

– Património classificado sensível a

cheias (ha)

– Zonas de localização de atividades

económicas (indústria, comércio e

serviços) sensíveis a cheias (ha/nº)

– Alojamentos sensíveis a cheias (nº)

– População sensível a cheias (Pop/km2)

– Infraestruturas de transporte sensíveis

a cheias (m)

– VAB/empresa indústria

– VAB/empresa comércio

– VAB/empresa serviços

– n.º Bombeiros/1000 residentes

– n.º Bombeiros/pop sensível

(residente em área de risco)

Inundações estuarinas

Área (%) inundável por inundações estuarinas

– Património classificado sensível a

cheias (ha)

– Zonas de localização de atividades

económicas (indústria, comércio e

serviços) sensíveis a cheias (ha/nº)

– Alojamentos sensíveis a cheias (nº)

– População sensível a cheias (Pop/km2)

– Infraestruturas de transporte sensíveis

a cheias (m)

– VAB/empresa indústria

– VAB/empresa comércio

– VAB/empresa serviços

– n.º Bombeiros/1000 residentes

– n.º Bombeiros/pop sensível

(residente em área de risco)

Inundações e galgamentos costeiros em litoral arenoso

Área (%) em zona de risco de inundações e galgamentos costeiros em litoral arenoso

– Atividades turísticas sensíveis a

inundações costeiras (nº)

– Alojamentos sensíveis a inundações

costeiras (nº)

– Equipamentos sensíveis a inundações

costeiras (nº)

– População sensível a inundações

costeiras (Pop/km2)

– Infraestruturas de transporte sensíveis

a inundações costeiras (m)

– VAB/empresa comércio

– VAB/empresa serviços

– n.º Bombeiros/1000 residentes

– n.º Bombeiros/pop sensível

(residente em área de risco)

– Investimento em defesa

costeira 2003-2023

– População residente no litoral

“em risco” com mais de 65

anos (%)

– População residente no litoral

“em risco” com ensino superior

(%)

Climate vulnerability indexes (per type of climate risk)

Matrix for theconstruction of presente and future climatevulnerabilityindexes(excerpt)

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

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Evaluation of future climatevulnerabilities

1. Present climate vulnerabilityindexes (per risk type)

2. Future climate risks(projection of climate scenarios)

3. Future climate vulnerabilityindexes (per risk type)

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Evaluation of future climatevulnerabilities

For each sector:

• Identification of the main future impacts for the sector (positive

and negative, direct and indirect)

Syntesis of the mainfuture climate impacts in the agriculture andforestry sector, in AML

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

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Evaluation of future climatevulnerabilities

For each sector:

• Evaluation of climate risks for the sector (present, mid-term, long-

term and general tendency)

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Evaluation of future climatevulnerabilities

For each sector:

• Matrix of evolution of every climate risk for the sector

• Hierarchy of adaptation priorities

for the sector

• Identification of adaptation

thresholds (red line)

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Metropolitan strategy forclimate change adaptation

Metropolitan adaptation agenda:

• 4 Prioritary climate risks

• 13 Strategic objectives

• 76 Adaptation measures

A metropolis prepared to deal with climate change, promoting adaptation as an instrument

to build a more sustainable territory, to guarantee a more equitable and territorially fairer

development model, to affirm its capacity for innovation and its global attractiveness.

Metropolitan governance Planning and regulation Sectorial integration

Increase the metropolitan adaptive capacity

High temperatures Sea level riseFloods

Reduce the prioritary vulnerabilities

Droughts

Metropolitan vision for climate change adaptation

Guidelines for land use

management planning

Sectorial agendas for

metropolitan adaptation

Strategic

Metropolitan

Projects (2030)

Management,

accompaniement

and monitoring

Metropolitan agenda for climate change adaptation

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PMAAC-AML

Metropolitan Adaptation Agenda01.

Guidelines for Integrating Adaptation

in Land Use Management 02.

Sectorial agendas for metropolitan adaptation03.

▪ Agriculture and forestry

▪ Biodiversity and

landscape

▪ Economy

▪ Energy

▪ Water resources

▪ Human health

▪ Civil protection

▪ Transports and

communications

▪ Coastal areas and

sea

Strategic Regional Framework

Municipal scope of implementation

Municipal plans for climate change

adaptation01.

Adaptation plans, strategies and projects

by sectorial stakeholders03.

Municipal, Metropolitan and Sectorial Implementation

Sectorial scope of implementation

Integration of adaptation in

municipal policies11.

Integration of adaptation in land

use management12.

Municipal adaptation interventions13.

Metropolitan scope of impementationMunicipal Risk and Vulnerability Plans03.

Planning, animation and monitoring02.

Management, monitoring and

accompaniement of PMAAC-AML21.

Strategic Metropolitan Projects22.

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Guidelines for integratingclimate change adaptation in land use managementplanning

The main ways of integrating climate change adaptation in spatial planning

fit into four major dimensions:

• Strategic

• Regulamentar

• Operational

• GovernanceDirectives for integratingthe PMAAC-AML climatechange adaptationagenda in municipal landuse management plans(excerpt)

PMAAC Área Metropolitana de Lisboa (2019)

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Training of local officials and stakeholder engagement

Training programme

• 6 training workshops with local officials

Stakeholder engagement

• 18 municipal workshops

• 9 sectoral workshops

• 3 thematic/sectoral workshops

• 2 intermunicipal workshops

Public awareness and communication

• 3 international conferences

Results:

2.000 participants

40 events

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Main outputs of theMetropolitan Adaptation Plan

• Final reports of the Metropolitan

Plan

• Municipal reports on local risks

and vulnernabilities

• Guidelines for the integration of adaptation in municipal land use

planning

• Online information platform based on GIS Webmapping

• Online forms to collect monitoring

data

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Lessons of experience:

• External financing is still a decisive boost for local and regional

adaptation planning processes

• It is possible for municipalities to develop simple adaptation strategies

internally, but external technical and scientific support resources (training, manuals, data...) need to be previously available

• The quality of adaptation plans improves with the densification of knowledge of the local climate, territory and affected sectors

• The involvement of local and sectoral stakeholders is essential for the adaptive strategy to be assumed by local communities and well

succeeded

• Networking between municipalities is very important for learning and

sharing experiences, developing joint projects, but also for lobbying.

• It is essential that plans are fully operational, and oriented towards

actions and the collection of financial resources for local adaptation

• Municipal adaptation plans must evolve towards Local Climate Action

Plans (4th generation, pioneered by the Loulé PMAC).

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References:

National projects

• ClimAdaPT.Local

• adapt.local network

Metropolitan/intermunicipal adaptation plans

• Área Metropolitana de Lisboa - PMAAC-AML (EN resume)

• Alentejo Central – PIAAC-AC

• Oeste - Oeste PIAAC

• Viseu Dão Lafões – PIAAC VDL

Municipal adaptation plans

• Leiria – PMAAC Leiria

• Ílhavo – PMAAC Ílhavo

• Lagos – PMAAC Lagos

Municipal climate action plans

• Loulé – PMAC Loulé (ongoing)

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obrigado!

[email protected]