Planning for

the Future the Future

High StreetPaul Shuker, Director, LSH 9th May 2018

Introduction

•What are the challenges facing our centres

•Key trends

•Is UK retail planning guidance still fit for

purpose?

•Key messages and solutions

6

8

10

12

M S

Q F

T

RETAIL DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY – 2013-2022

0

2

4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 No date

M S

Q F

T

Scheme completed Under construction Planning permission granted Planning application ongoing

Source: LSH Research

40

60

80

100

%

UNDER CONSTRUCTION - SCHEME TYPE BY LOCATION

0

20

City/Town centre Out-of-town

Shopping centres Small shopping centre/arcadeRetail parks/Shopping parks/Factory outlets Leisure parks

Retail & leisure parks (mixed) Retail warehousingGrocery Other retail/leisure

Source: LSH Research

Total = 5.6m sq ft Total = 2.8m sq ft

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

£B

N

RETAIL INVESTMENT BY PROPERTY TYPE - 2013-2018

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

High Street Shops Supermarkets Shopping Centre Retail Warehouse

Source: LSH Research

400

500

600

700

800

900

£(m

)

HIGH STREET SHOP INVESTMENT - 2013-2018

Source: LSH Research

0

100

200

300

400

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Trendline - actual Trendline – exclusion Q4 2017 large deals

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

£

HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE INCOME

-

5,000

10,000

Source: ONS, Effects of taxes and benefits on household income

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ave

rag

e s

pe

nd

pe

r w

ee

k (

£)

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOUSEHOLD SPEND BY CATEGORY - 2013-2017

0

10

20

30

Food and non-

alcoholic drinks

Alcoholic drinks,

tobacco and

narcotics

Clothing and

footwear

Household goods

and services

Communication Recreation and

culture

Restaurants and

hotels

Ave

rag

e s

pe

nd

pe

r w

ee

k (

£)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: ONS, Living Costs and Food Survey

10

15

20

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

%£b

n

RETAIL SALES AND GROWTH - 2006-2036

FORECAST

-5

0

5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036

£

In-store Online Growth online (%) Growth retail (%)Source:

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%TOWN CENTRE COMPOSITION 2007 to 2018

Source:

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jun

-07

Oct

-07

Fe

b-0

8

Jun

-08

Oct

-08

Fe

b-0

9

Jun

-09

Oct

-09

Fe

b-1

0

Jun

-10

Oct

-10

Fe

b-1

1

Jun

-11

Oct

-11

Fe

b-1

2

Jun

-12

Oct

-12

Fe

b-1

3

Jun

-13

Oct

-13

Fe

b-1

4

Jun

-14

Oct

-14

Fe

b-1

5

Jun

-15

Oct

-15

Fe

b-1

6

Jun

-16

Oct

-16

Fe

b-1

7

Jun

-17

Oct

-17

Fe

b-1

8

Convenience Comparison Retail Service Leisure Service Financial & Business Service Vacant

Current Planning FrameworkNPPF (2012) Paragraph 23 (Ensuring the Vitality of Centres)

- town centres should be the heart of the community;

- define a network and hierarchy of centres;

- Define the extent of town centres the primary shopping area and primary and secondary frontages

and confirm land uses that will be permitted;

- Promote competitive town centre and customer choice and a diverse retail offer reflecting the - Promote competitive town centre and customer choice and a diverse retail offer reflecting the

individuality of the town;

- Retain and enhance markets, and re-introduce or create new markets;

- Allocate suitable sites to meet needs in full the scale of retail, leisure, commercial, office, tourism,

cultural, community and residential development needed in town centre;

- allocate appropriate edge-of-centre for main town centre uses that are well connected to the town

centre;

- Recognise that residential development can play an important role in ensuring vitality of centres;

- where town centres are in decline, plan positively for future to encourage economic activity;

Current Delivery of the FrameworkNPPF & NPPG, delivered through:

- Local Plans (Part 1 and Part 2),

- Area Action Plans;

- Neighbourhood Plans;

- Top down approach creating sound plans but formulaic land use plans, with no - Top down approach creating sound plans but formulaic land use plans, with no

localism, identity or ambition!!

- Create Investment Prospectus / Town Centre Masterplans

- work with BIDS and business and resident community;

- obtain cross party consensus and fiscal commitment;

- need to align creative industries, cultural and industry strategies

- Town Centre Pledges / Challenges

-

Extensive ‘High Street’ Research 2011 to 2018

High Street UK 2020 (HSUK202) 25 Factors Promoting Vitality and

ViabilityNPPF/NPPG/Local Plans (2012 – to date) HSUK2020

Diversity of uses Activity Hours Appearance

Proportion of vacant street level Retailer and services (private / public) Vision & Strategy

Commercial yields on non-dom property Experience Management

Customer views and behaviour Merchandise Range Necessities

Retailer representation & intentions to

change

Anchors Networks & Partnerships

change

Commercial rents Diversity Walkability

Pedestrian flows Entertainment & Leisure Attractiveness

Accessibility Place Assurance Accessible

Perception of safety and crime Place Marketing Comparison/Convenience

Environment Quality Recreational Space Barriers to Entry

Chain vs Independent Safety /Crime

Liveability Adaptability

Store Development/Investment

Draft NPPF2 (2018)Town centre planning policies consolidated to 2012 document; main changes:

• paragraph 86d clarifies that when allocating sites for town centre uses these should be considering

over 10 years (long term), and not compromised by limited site availability;

•Paragraph 86f maintain emphasis towards residential development;

•Paragraph 87 changes the sequential approach to planning applications, whereby out-of-centre sites

are only considered if suitable town centre or edge of centre sites are unavailable within a reasonable are only considered if suitable town centre or edge of centre sites are unavailable within a reasonable

period;

•Paragraph 90 removes the expectation that office development outside town centres are subject to

the impact test where development is over a certain threshold;

•Paragraph 180 introduces the ‘agent of change’ principle for music and cultural venues;

•No change to vitality and viability performance indicators by HSUK2020

Future of the high street: more than

ensuring shops are not empty• Industry Led ‘Retail Sector Council’ - 7th March 2018

‘Issues about individual high streets are for the relevant local authority to address. They are best placed to determine

how to help their local high streets, ensuring that their high streets meet the needs of the local community and

maximise local growth in their areas. Ultimately, if a high street is to flourish, then local people, businesses and maximise local growth in their areas. Ultimately, if a high street is to flourish, then local people, businesses and

councils in an area need to work together to develop their own unique offer for the high street that resonates with the

local community.’

However, this Government is committed to supporting diverse high streets with a broad range of retail, service

businesses, leisure and residential. High streets are a crucial part of our local and regional economies, and we want to

see vibrant hubs where people live, shop, use services, and spend their leisure time, and that includes a welcoming

and safe night-time economy. Since 2010, the Government has helped create over 360 town teams, and given over

£18 million to towns, funding successful initiatives such as‘ Love your Local Market’ and the ‘Great British High Street’.

Sajid Javid – Secretary of State for Housing Communities and Local Government

– 8th March 2018

Solutions to High Street• Residential Densification - Homes on our High Streets;

• Continued Application of Business Improvement Districts (BIDS);

• Digital High Street 2020 – Discoverability, connectivity and infrastructure;

• High Street UK 2020 (GHSUK2020);

• Bring Big Data to Small Users (#BDSU).

•Place Management / Making / branding;

• Genuine Authenticity, excitement and novelty;

• Focus on non-transactional activity/land uses;

• Foster co-working space and creative industries to town centres;

• Change opening times to reflect consumers needs (end nine to five mentality);

Key Messages• Town Centres are complex and need to be managed and designed holistically and in partnership ;

• Adapt of die, be foxes not hedgehogs;

• Recognise the need to re-invent the high street:

- Vision – Objectives - Strategy;

- Process of Change - Pick the priority fights;

- bricks and mortar and modern omni-channelling to work seamlessly together;- bricks and mortar and modern omni-channelling to work seamlessly together;

•Planning Policy is toothless without fiscal support and local engagement;

•Pay attention to indicators, share Intel and data;

• Develop a retail and service mix anchored on focal place of interest;

• Curate place that is accessible with a plethora of activity that purposely engages;

• Service with a smile; and

• Retail is not the panacea but neither is a ‘app’,

Planning for

the Future the Future

High StreetThank you. Pshuker@lsh.co.uk 0161 242 7056 / 07769727394