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Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning
AndrewMills1,*,GalenBarbose1,JoachimSeel1,ChangguiDong2,TrieuMai2,BenSigrin2,Jare?Zuboy3
1LawrenceBerkeleyNaFonalLaboratory2NaFonalRenewableEnergyLaboratory
3IndependentConsultant
August2016
ThisprojectwasfundedbytheOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy(SolarEnergyTechnologiesProgram)oftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy
Project Overview
• Analystsprojectthatdistributedsolarphotovoltaics(DPV)willconFnuegrowingrapidlyacrosstheUnitedStates.
• GrowthinDPVhascriFcalimplicaFonsforuFlityplanningprocesses,potenFallyaffecFngfutureinfrastructureneeds.
• AppropriatetechniquestoincorporateDPVintouFlityplanningareessenFaltoensuringreliableoperaFonoftheelectricsystemandrealizingthefullvalueofDPV.
Context
• ComparaFveanalysisandevaluaFonofroughly30recentplanningstudies,idenFfyinginnovaFvepracFces,lessonslearned,andstate-of-the-arttools.
Approach
• Electricinfrastructureplanning(IRPs,transmission,distribuFon).• FocusonthetreatmentofDPV,withemphasisonhowDPVgrowthisaccountedforwithinplanningstudies.
Scope
2
Organization of Report
3
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
Organization of Report
4
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
High End of 3rd Party Forecasts Suggests More DPV Than Is Considered By Utilities
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
HECO PG&E LADWP APS NVP TEP PNM ELA TVA FP&L GPC DOM ISO-NE NYISO DEI NSP PAC NWPCC PSE IPC WECC
Hawaii,California,DesertSouthwest South Northeast Midwest Northwest West
DPVpenetraKon(%ofretailsales)
Near-term(~2020)planneresKmate
Long-term(~2030)planneresKmate
Near-term(~2020)3rdpartyforecasts
2020Long-term(~2030)3rdpartyforecasts
Customer-adoption Modeling Brings Customer Decisions Into DPV Forecasting
6
Method DescripFon
Predic)veFactorsUsed
RecentinstallaFonrates
IncenFveprogramtargets
TechnicalpotenFal
PVeconomics
End-userbehaviors
S)pulatedForecast
Assumesend-pointDPVdeployment
HistoricalTrend
Extrapolatesfuturedeploymentfromhistoricaldata
X
Program-BasedApproach
Assumesprogramdeploymenttargetsreached
X
Customer-Adop)onModeling
UsesadopFonmodelsthatrepresentend-userdecisionmaking
X X X X
Shading
TiltAzimuth
Some Planners Use Customer-adoption Models for DPV Forecasting
TechnicalPotenFal
Willingness-to-adopt
Diffusion7
0Payback Period(Years)
2010Ult
imate
Share
(%
)
100%
50%
0%
0Years Since Introduction
3015
Realiz
ed M
ark
et
Pen.
100%
50%
0%
Adaptedfrom:Gagnonetal.2016
*illustra:ve
*illustra:ve
Organization of Report
8
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
Multiple Per-scenario Plans Help Identify Resources that Depend on DPV Forecast
9
Method DescripFon
FactorsAddressed
Netloadchanges
GeneraFonporgoliochanges
Resource-acquisiFonstrategychanges
SingleForecast OneDPV-adopFonforecastused
SubjecttoSensi)vity
CostandperformanceofporgoliosevaluatedunderdifferentsensiFviFes
X
Per-ScenarioPlan
Capacityexpansionmodelsusedtodevelopleast-costplansforvariousscenarios
X X
Acquisi)onPathAnalysis
MulFpleper-scenarioplanscombinedwithtriggereventstoshaperesource-acquisiFonstrategy
X X X
Robustness of Decisions to Uncertainty in DPV Quantity
10
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
MW
2015
2020
2025 ...
...
Existing Resources
A
C
B
D
E
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
MW
2015
2020
2025 ...
...
Existing Resources
A
C
B
D
E
F
Candidateportfolio
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
MW
20
15
20
20
20
25 ...
...
Existing Resources
Load Net Load w/ low DPV
Net Load w/ high DPV
PlanwithLowDPV
PlanwithHighDPV
ForecastsofDPVAdopFonareUncertainàDevelopScenario-SpecificPlans
*illustra:ve
Use Difference In Plans to Identify Trigger Events and Resulting Changes to Plan
11
Source:PacifiCorp(2015)
TriggerEvent PlanningScenario ResourceAcquisi)onStrategy
NearTerm(2015-24) Long-Term(2025-34)
HighersustainedDGpenetraFonlevels
MoreaggressivetechnologycostreducFons,improvedtechnologyperformance,andhigherelectricityretailrates
• ReduceforwardcontractacquisiFon
• ConFnuetopursueEE
• Reduceacquisi:onofgas-firedresources
• BalanceFmingofthermalacquisiFonwithforwardcontractsandEE
LowersustainedDGpenetraFonlevels
LessaggressivetechnologycostreducFons,reducedtechnologyperformance,andlowerelectricityretailrates
• IncreaseforwardcontractacquisiFon(primarilybeginning2024)
• ConFnuetopursueEE
• Increaseacquisi:onofgas-firedresources
• BalanceFmingofthermalacquisiFonwithforwardcontractsandEE
Organization of Report
12
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
Characterize DPV as a Resource Option
13
OnlyabouthalfoftheuFlityIRPsincludedDPVasaresource.TheprimarychallengeisdetermininghowtorepresentthecostsandbenefitsofDPVanddisFnguishitfromotherresourceslikeuFlity-scalePV(UPV).
*illustra:ve
Plan Characteris)cCapitalCostDiffersfromUPV?
CapacityFactorDiffersfromUPV?
CapacityCreditDiffersfromUPV?
AvoidedLosses
AvoidedTransmission
AvoidedDistribuFon
DEI(2015) X
GPC(2016) X X
HECO(2013) X X
IPC(2015) X
LADWP(2014)
X X
NSP(2015) X X X X
PG&E(2014) X X X X X X
PSE(2015) X X
TVA(2015) X
Organization of Report
14
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
Evolving Approaches to Capture Non-dispatchability of DPV in Planning
• Hourly DPV generation profiles capture some potential integration issues, including multi-hour ramping impacts and overgeneration.
• Sub-hourly variability and uncertainty can be addressed through detailed integration studies.
• DPV’s resource adequacy contribution is estimated by the capacity credit. 15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
DEC IPC TEP APS NWPCC
SolarP
VIntegra;
onCost
($/M
Wh)
Organization of Report
16
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
Propensity to Adopt Accounts for Factors Like Customer Demographics
17
Method DescripFon
Predic)veFactorsUsed
LocaFonofexisFngloadorpopulaFon
LocaFonofexisFngDPV
DetailedcustomercharacterisFcs
Propor)onaltoLoad
AssumesDPVisdistributedinproporFontoloadorpopulaFon
X
Propor)onaltoExis)ngDPV
AssumesDPVgrowsinproporFontoexisFngDPV X
PropensitytoAdopt
PredictscustomeradopFonbasedonfactorslikecustomerdemographicsorcustomerload
X X X
Predicting the Location of DPV Adoption Using Propensity to Adopt
18
C - 39
FIGURE 3-8 PG&E SERVICE AREA – SCENARIO 1 - ESTIMATED PV INSTALLED IN 2020 AND 2025
Source:PG&E2015DRP
Organization of Report
19
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
Impact of DPV on T&D Investments: Potential Deferral Value
20 Source:AdaptedfromCohenetal.2016
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Maxim
umFeede
r
Volta
ge(p
u)
FeederPVPenetra@on(kW)
Allpenetra@onsacceptable,regardlessofloca@on
Somepenetra@onsacceptable,dependingontheloca@on
Nopenetra@onsacceptable,regardlessoftheloca@on
ImpactThreshold
MinimumHos@ngCapacity
MaximumHos@ngCapacity
Impact of DPV on T&D Investments: Hosting Capacity Analysis
21 Source:AdaptedfromEPRI2015
Impact of DPV on T&D Investments: Proactive Planning for DPV
22
$-
$0.1
$0.2
$0.3
$0.4
$0.5
$0.6
0 20 40 60 80 100
Upgrade
Cost($/W
pv)
PVPenetra@on(%ofFeederThermalRa@ng)
Cluster11AllOtherClusters
$-
$0.1
$0.2
$0.3
$0.4
0 20 40 60 80 100
Upgrade
Cost($/W
pv)
PVPenetra?on(%ofFeederThermalRa?ng)
Tradi?onalAdv.InverterAdv.Inverter+Storage
CoststoIncreasetheHosFngCapacityof
FourteenRepresentaFveFeederswith
TradiFonalGridUpgrades
CoststoIncreasetheHosFngCapacityofCluster11Comparing
TradiFonalGridUpgradesto
EmergingOpFons
Source:AdaptedfromNavigant2016a
Organization of Report
23
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
Non-linear Relationship of Losses with Load Is Not Fully Captured in Average Loss Rate
24
Method DescripFon
LossCharacteris)csAddressed
VariedlossesoverFme
Marginallossratediffersfromaverage
Circuit-levellosses
AverageLossRate Appliessingleaveragelossrateacrossallhoursoftheyear
Time-Differen)atedAverageLossRate
DifferenFatesaveragelossratebasedonFmingofavoidedlosses X
MarginalAverageLossRate
Appliesandaveragemarginallossratebasedonlineloading X
Time-Differen)atedMarginalLossRate
DifferenFatesmarginallossratebyhour,month,or“peak”vs.“energy” X X
DetailedAnalysisofLosses
Useacircuit-levelmodeltoanalyzelosses X X X
MostuFliFesappeartouseanaveragelossrate,someuseaFme-differenFatedaveragelossrate,noneappeartousemarginallosses.
Organization of Report
25
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
Studies Contain Few Detailed Discussions of Changes in Value at High Penetration
• Georgia Power estimates value for different tranches of solar penetration, though details are often redacted.
• LADWP identifies challenges with overgeneration on some low-load days with high solar.
• LADWP also notes that electric car charging during the day may mitigate some of the overgeneration challenges.
• Planners may also want to consider bundling DPV with other enabling technologies to prevent changes in value with high penetration.
26
Source:AdaptedfromGPC2016
Organization of Report
27
Forecas)ngquanFtyofDPV• SecFon3
RobustnessofdecisionstouncertaintyinDPVquanFty• SecFon4
CharacterizeDPVasaresourceop)on• SecFon5
Non-dispatchabilityofDPV• SecFon6
Loca)on-specificfactorsofDPV• SecFon7
ImpactofDPVonT&Dinvestments• SecFon8
AvoidedlossesassociatedwithDPV• SecFon9
ChangeswithDPVpenetra)on• SecFon10
IntegraFonofDPVacrossplanningforums• SecFon11
Integrating DPV Into Planning Requires Coordination Across Generation,
Transmission, and Distribution Planning
• One approach is to ensure that consistent scenarios, assumptions, and data are passed between different planning entities.
• Some utilities are developing iterative planning practices that directly link the different planning forums.
• Emerging tools can help to more fully evaluate the impacts and benefits of DPV and other DER from the distribution system up.
28
Highlights for Innovative Practices • Forecasting: Customer-adoption modeling for DPV forecasts.
• Robustness: Develop scenario-specific plans. Use differences in plans to identify “trigger events” that will result in changes to plan.
• DPV as a Resource: Fully characterize DPV as a resource option. Consider in resource, transmission, and distribution planning.
• Location of DPV: Forecast location of DPV to improve estimates of the T&D impact and location-specific value of DPV. Use propensity to adopt based on household/customer characteristics.
• Impacts to T&D: Include DPV in forecast of peak load for transmission and distribution planning. Use hosting capacity analysis to identify needs for proactive distribution investments.
• Non-dispatchability: Use hourly DPV profiles from SAM, CPR, or PVSyst. Calculate contribution to adequacy with ELCC. Use detailed integration studies to investigate sub-hourly challenges and costs.
• Avoided Losses: Account for time-varying loss rates.
• Changes with penetration: Identify costs and benefits for different tranches of DPV. Consider charging EVs when solar output is high. 29
Contact Information
For more information: Andrew D. Mills | [email protected] | 510.486.4059 http://emp.lbl.gov/reports/re
30
Sample of Integrated Resource Plans En)ty TitleandYearArizonaPublicService(APS) 2014IntegratedResourcePlanDominion(DOM) 2015IntegratedResourcePlanDukeEnergyCarolinas/Progress(DEC/DEP) 2014IntegratedResourcePlanDukeEnergyIndiana(DEI) 2015IntegratedResourcePlanEntergyLouisiana(ELA) 2015IntegratedResourcePlanFloridaPower&Light(FPL) TenYearPowerPlantSitePlan:2015-2024GeorgiaPower(GPC) 2016IntegratedResourcePlanHawaiianElectricCompanies(HECO) 2013IntegratedResourcePlanningReportIdahoPower(IPC) 2015IntegratedResourcePlanLosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower(LADWP) 2014IntegratedResourcePlanNevadaPower(NVP) 2015IntegratedResourcePlanNorthernStatesPower(NSP) 2015ResourcePlanNorthwestPowerandConservaFonCouncil(NWPCC) SeventhConservaFonandElectricPowerPlan(2016)PacificGas&Electric(PG&E) 2014BundledProcurementPlanPacifiCorp(PAC) 2015IntegratedResourcePlanPublicServiceNewMexico(PNM) 2014IntegratedResourcePlanPugetSoundEnergy(PSE) 2015IntegratedResourcePlanTennesseeValleyAuthority(TVA) IntegratedResourcePlan-2015FinalReportTri-StateG&T 2015IntegratedResourcePlan/ElectricResourcePlanTucsonElectricPower(TEP) 2014IntegratedResourcePlan
31
Sample of Transmission Planning Studies
32
En)ty TitleandYearCaliforniaISO(CAISO) 2015-2016TransmissionPlanningProcessUnifiedPlan.AssumpFonsandStudyPlanISONewEngland(ISO-NE) 2015RegionalSystemPlanNewYorkISO(NYISO) 2015LoadandCapacityDataReport:“GoldBook”PJM 2015RegionalTransmissionExpansionPlanWesternElectricityCoordinaFngCouncil(WECC)
IntegratedTransmissionandResourceAssessment:Summaryof2015PlanningAnalyses
Sample of Distribution Planning Studies En)ty TitleandYearCalifornia:PG&E 2015DistribuFonResourcesPlanCA:SouthernCaliforniaEdison(SCE) 2015DistribuFonResourcesPlanCA:SanDiegoGasandElectric(SDG&E) 2015DistribuFonResourcesPlanHawaii:HECO 2014DistributedGeneraFonInterconnecFonPlanHI:HECO 2015Circuit-LevelHosFngCapacityAnalysisMassachuse?s:NaFonalGrid 2015GridModernizaFonPlanNewYork:NYDepartmentofPublicService 2015DistributedSystemImplementaFonPlanGuidance
33