planning climate adaptation in agriculture: advances in research, policy and finance
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Presentations by speakers at the CCAFS' "Planning Climate Adaptation in Agriculture" Side Event during the UNFCCC SB 40 climate negotiations in Bonn. Speakers are: Gabrielle Kissinger, David Kaluba, David Howlett and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya. http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/mainstreaming-agriculture-national-adaptation-plans-0#.U7jmRPldW8wTRANSCRIPT
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Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to
successful national adaptation plans
Gabrielle Kissinger, Lexeme
Consulting
Side-event: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture: Advances in research, policy and financeSBSTA 40 - Bonn Germany - 7 June 2014
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Agricultural adaptation: Are countries ready?
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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IPCC: Negative impacts of climate change on crop yields are more common than positive ones
Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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IPCC: Summary of projected changes in crop yields due to
climate change
Note: Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels
Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014 Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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Growing demand and pressure on agriculture
• US $70 billion to $100 billion a year is needed between 2010 and 2050 to adapt to a 2oC warmer world (World Bank, 2011)
• US$83 - $90 billion annual agricultural investment gap in the agricultural sector of developing countries, to meet food security needs up to 2050 (FAO 2011, Global Harvest Initiative 2011)
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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How NAPs evolved
• Established in 2010 (Cancún) by the UNFCCC. Purpose:Ø Facilitate effective medium- and long-term adaptation planning
and implementation in developing countries, in particular LDCs (FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1)
• Adaptation Committee est. under Cancun Adaptation Framework. Purpose:
Ø Implement enhanced action on adaptation and facilitation of NAPs by non-LDC developing country Parties. Contributes to (not duplicate work of) the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) to support LDC national adaptation plan processes and the SBI on the work programme on loss and damage.
• LEG Technical Guidelines for NAPs: released 2012.
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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NAPAs and NAPs
COP 17 in Durban defined NAP process objectives (FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1):(a) “reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience,” and(b) ” facilitate integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate”.…And recognised that adaptation planning will be “continuous, progressive and iterative.”
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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NAPAs and NAPs
2013. NAPAs and NAPS in Least Developed Countries. IIED LDC Paper Series.
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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Countries reviewed
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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10 country workshop
• 37 policy makers, 10 different countries • two-day workshop on November 13-14, 2013 at COP in Warsaw,
Poland
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NAP Dashboard
Source: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture. CCAFS Report No. 10
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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Areas of concern:
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
• Many countries lack consistent, comprehensive and coordinated approaches in their vulnerability and risk assessments (affects ranking)
• Most of the countries conducted impact assessments—the foundation of the planning process—on a purely sectoral basis
• Cross- or multisectoral analyses to prioritize adaptation actions can be useful, many countries have difficulties performing such strategic studies
• Most did not assess the economic implications of climate risks, which compromises the design of adaptation strategies and measures:
Ø Kenya: Annual cost of climate change impacts USD $1 to 3 billion/yr. by 2030.• Institutional frameworks and governance structures are lacking to effectively
coordinate and implement adaptation activities, particularly cross-sectoral ones• Many adaptation and food security programs currently being implemented are
not well integrated into a broader national strategy, and are often driven by bilateral and/or multilateral funding sources.
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The adaptation finance gap
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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Identification of barriers and conflicts basis for assessing future research and capacity needs:
Workshop results:
Barrier Frequency
Lack of organization in access to finance 5
Lack of dedicated finance instruments for CC at national level 5
Insufficient consideration of climate issues in national policies and programmes
4
Unclear funding for implementation 3
Inadequate appreciation of investments in adaptation 3
Lack of long-series climate data 2
Lack of baseline data/information 2
High cost of international expertise, infrastructure and tools for climate research
2
Need for financial planning 2
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Success in cross- or multisectoral planning:
• Nepal (NAPA): “Thematic working groups” – Agriculture and Food Security, Forest and Biodiversity, Water Resources and Energy, Climate Induced Disasters, Public Health, Urban Settlements and Infrastructure. Stakeholder comprised, identified priority activities + combined project profiles.
• Ghana: “Akropong Approach” – results in cross-sectoral project plan. Logical framework analysis + multi-criteria analysis to rank importance of activities.
• Tanzania’s 2012 “Guidelines for Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into National Sectoral Policies, Plans and Programmes of Tanzania,” issued by the Vice President’s Office.
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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Design of institutional structures should consider who can have greatest influence in adaptation and NAP policy environment:• OECD experience: Success of adaptation plans and measures may
be attributed more to their prominence in national-level priorities and commitment than where such plans sit in the organizational structure of government (Mullan et al. 2013)
• Ethiopia: coordination of climate change activities was moved from the National Meteorological Agency to the Office of the Prime Minister
• Kenya: the National Climate Change Framework Policy and a draft Bill being deliberated in Parliament envisions the National Climate Change Council (NCCC) being anchored in the Presidency, with the NCCC being chaired by the Deputy President.
Necessary influence and leverage for NAPs:
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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Workshop: Most relevant actors and institutions to influence NAP
policy environment
Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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Recommendations
• Bring local levels into planning and prioritization, where much climate adaptation implementation occurs.
• Governance institutions need to be adaptive, in order to adjust response measures as new information on climate impacts develops over time.
• Developing countries and LDCs need to strengthen capacity to identify and rank climate risks and prioritize response activities.
• Identify sources of NAP implementation finance during the planning phase.
– Implementation funding should be separate from NAP planning.
– Devote some national budgetary allocations towards implementation (stronger commitment to outcomes and more effective for mainstreaming)
• Increased capacity for integrated approaches to adaptation planning
– Key for relationships and trade-offs between sectors + climate adaptation and mitigation synergies
• Countries should widen stakeholder engagement in assessment, design, implementation and monitoring of adaptation plans, particularly the private sector, which is critical in many contexts for implementation. Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national
adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014
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Planning Climate Adaptation in Agriculture UNFCCC SB 40 in Bonn, Germany
By David C. Kaluba
National Coordinator-Interim SecretariatMinistry of Finance –Zambia
2014
REPUBLICREPUBLIC OF ZAMBIAOF ZAMBIA
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What are Development Priorities
Strong Economic Growth…GNI per capita: US$1,280/yearGDP Growth: 6.4%
Population 13 million61% ruralLand: 750,000 km2 Two large river basins: Zambezi and CongoThe name is derived from river Zambezi
But Growth is Uneven… Poverty level in rural areas: 77% (59% at national level)UN HDI: 150 out of 169
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Example 2. Identify Climate Change Risks on Development
Over past 30 years, floods and droughts have cost Zambia US$13.8 billion – equivalent to 0.4 % of annual GDP growth
In the absence of adaptation, rainfall variability could keep an additional 300,000 more Zambians below the poverty line
Climate variability could cost Zambia US$4.3 billion in lost GDP over the next decade, reducing annual growth by 0.9%
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Impact on the Most Vulnerable
Women-headed Households, the Elderly, Incapacitated, and those taking care of AIDS-orphans are most vulnerable. Single or divorced male-headed HHs are also highly vulnerable (due to malnutrition)
When hit with floods or droughts, vulnerable HHs cope by reducing food or essential expenditures (health, education). They also increase their level of indebtness and rely further on casual labor – however, this is mostly food-for-works which is similarly impacted by the weather.
Many traditional coping mechanisms (e.g. indigenous early warning, two house system) are no longer working due to weather unpredictability and changing economic conditions
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Zambia: Major Exposure to Climate
Droughts FloodsFood Needs Areas – 2005/06 Drought
The Southern part of Zambia is generally considered to be the most vulnerable
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Green Climate Fund- Readiness
Project-based and programmatic approaches in accordance with climate change strategies and plans, such as low-emission development strategies or plans, nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs), national adaptation plans of action (NAPAs), national adaptation plans (NAPs) and other related activities
NAPs as Readiness tool
To reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience;
To facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate
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LINKAGES ARE IMPORTANT
mainstream ed climate change into the most economically and vulnerable sectors of the economy in order to ensure sustainable economic development towards the attainment of Zambia’s Vision 2030Mainstreaming strengthened country ownership and drivenessLocal level Integrated Development Plans crucial to adaptation among the most vulnerable – processes commenced
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Zambia’s Climate Change Programme Institutional Arrangements
Board (Ministries, House of Chiefs, Civil Society, Private Sector, Academia)
Technical CommitteeSecretariat-CCFU
Theme 2:Mitigation/Low Carbon Developmente.g. CDM, UN-REDD
Theme 1:Adaptation & Disaster Risk Reductione.g. PPCR, NAPA
Theme 3:Research & Development, Capacity Buildinge.g. ILUA, Technology Development
Theme 4:Policy Development, Mainstreaming & Negotiationse.g. UNFCCC, CIFs
Theme 5Finance:Identification & Resource Mobilizatione.g. Adaptation Fund, Carbon Tax & others
Technical Committee Platforms:1) Resilient Agriculture2) Resilient Infrastructure
Constituency: Implementing Ministries, Local Government, Community Groups, NGOs, Private Sector
Community groups, NGOs
Committee of Ministers
Future Climate Change Council
TC Platforms: 3) REDD
TC Platforms: 4) Climate
Information TC Platforms:
6) Management and Finance
TC Platforms: 5) Others
The main themes of the programme are supported by stakeholder platforms
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1. PARTICIPATORY ADAPTATION (Examples)
Current Plans now include:
100% Government baseline
Climate Resilient Plans would also include:
+ 30% increment
Livestock and poultry rearing Climate resilient agriculture, livestock and fisheries
Agriculture inputs Natural resources management
Wells, water supply systems Water harvesting, flood control
Education and health facilities Retrofitting/construction to climate resilient standards
Feeder community roads Upgrading or retrofitting to climate resilient standards
Community facilities Community preparedness
This would promote community-driven, climate resilient development based on decentralized budget processes
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Targeting Gender and Vulnerable Groups
• As a condition for eligibility, at least 50% of the activities funded under climate resilient plans will be targeted to socially vulnerable groups – women-headed households, elderly, and the incapacitated.
• This pre-targeting would be mapped through a Comprehensive Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis, as per standard guidelines of the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit
• Youth groups would also be targeted due to their access to sub-standard land (typically away from irrigated areas)
• In districts with active cash (child) transfers, the SPCR would link with the social protection program for complementary support (through social infrastructure, micro-credit, and assistance to producer groups)
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For More Information, please [email protected] or [email protected]
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Slide 1
Development partner perspective on agriculture and adaptation
David HowlettUK Department for International Development (DFID)
7th June 2014, Bonn
Women and children are often affected the most by
climate
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Slide 2
• Recognise the problem and challenges
• Need to have evidence on what to invest in and policies to improve
• Want to know if these are successful
What is needed to adapt to a changing climate
Three points
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• Set up the International Climate Fund in 2011
• £3.83 bn over four years:– 50% on adaptation– 30% on low carbon development
– 20% on forestry• Agriculture a priority
Slide 3
What is UK doing?
A changing climate will affect the poor the most
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Slide 4
• Enhance farmers livelihoods • Produce the food farmers & consumers need
• Improve people’s nutrition – especially that of women and children
• Help farmers adapt and build resilience to current & future climate risks
• Sustain the health of the land and increases its productivity
• Avoid loss of forests & biodiversity • Sequester carbon in soil and reduce emissions of GHGs from agric.
We want to:
Irrigation helping Kenyan farmer increase her income
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Slide 5
• £150m to IFAD’s Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme (ASAP) to benefit six million farmers, men and women and help build their resilience to climate change, and help improve their incomes.
• £140m Building Resilience and Adapting to Climate Extremes and Disasters Programme (BRACED) to increase the resilience of over 5m people in the Sahel, other African countries and South Asia A Father and son escaping floods in
Pakistan
Two examples
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Supporting Climate Change Adaptation
Pradeep Kurukulasuriya Head, Climate Change Adaptation
UNDP-‐GEF
Laos/LDCF
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Vanuatu/SCCF Niger/LDCF
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Cambodia/LDCF Guatemala/SPA
Vanuatu/SCCF Laos/SCCF
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Our Journey
Adaptation in Practice
Lessons Learned
The Way Forward
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Empowering Communities
De-‐risking through Public
Policy
Nurturing and Promoting Enterprise
Empowering Communities
Lessons Learned
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Cambodia/LDCF
Bhutan/LDCF
Zimbabwe/SCCF
Niger/LDCF
Samoa/SCCF
Rwanda/LDCF
Bangladesh/LDCF
Empowering Communities
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De-‐risking barriers
Lessons Learned
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FS Micronesia/SCCF
Lesotho/NAP-‐GSP
Afghanistan/NAP-‐GSPLesotho/NAP-‐GSP
De-‐risking through Public Policy
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Bhutan/NAP-‐GSP
Zimbabwe/SCCF De-‐risking through Public Policy
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Nurturing and Promoting Enterprise
Lessons Learned
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Namibia/SPA
Nurturing and Promoting Enterprise
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Cambodia/LDCF
Nurturing and Promoting Enterprise
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Our Journey
Adaptation in Practice
Lessons Learned
The Way Forward
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Integrated Approaches
Cambodia/LDCF
Ethiopia/LDCF
Samoa/LDCF
Vietnam/LDCF
The Way Forward
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Evidence-‐Based Learning
Samoa/SPA Namibia/SPA
Bolivia/SPA
The Way Forward
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(a) Enhance the capacity of policy makers to identify appropriate mix of public instruments including public finance to catalyze larger private investments !
(b) Create an enabling environment including national/sub-‐national/ sectoral policy frameworks, domestic technical expertise, financing channels, and administrative procedures !
(c) Attract innovative finance to provide additional financial incentives
(II) to identify barriers to priority investments
(III) identify risks generated by these barriers that prevent the requisite investment
(IV) what are the de-‐risking instruments
(V) What are source of finance to support de-‐risking strategy
(I) Assist Governments (e.g. through national adaptation plans) to identify priorities from perspective of: (a)preserving existing infrastructure, businesses and livelihoods; (b)new business opportunities (c)no regret options
Theory of Change The Way Forward
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Scaling Up
Morocco/SPA
Niger/LDCF
The Way Forward
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!Transforming
1,800,000 million lives directly
!