planning and policy or planning by surprise wim timmermans wageningen ur, vhl
TRANSCRIPT
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Planning and policyor
Planning by surprise
Wim TimmermansWageningen UR, VHL
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1. Technical planning
Outcome of planning process depends on rational aspects as technical skills, equipment, budget.
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1. Technical planning2. Communicative planning
We build our own living
area
Outcome also depends on communication, power,group dynamics
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Tom Wild: ‘Green adds value to the build environment’
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We had some doubts. We had the idea that policy decisions are often ‘fact free decisions’
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Is it crucial for your project that we prove that green adds Value?
Interviews with some high level key playersin investment projects In VALUE
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Approach: Open interviews
• Data gathering by– In depth interviews (open, informal)– Focus on soft and unofficial information
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Soft information
• ‘Then suddenly..’• ‘However I had the opinion..’• ‘We put them under pressure..’• ‘Then I felt that..’• ‘After the meeting drinking a glass of wine, it
came up that he was not at all convinced of ..’
• ‘The new governor however..’
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Narrative: Development company,Manchester
• We invest in sustainable energy• We consider well designed and maintained green
infrastructure not as a value increase but as preventing value decrease
• We believe in sustainable innovations; we want to be front runner.
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Narrative: Esslingen
• We made a development strategy for the future. ‘Esslingen 2027’ with a lot of possible projects
• For our investment we talked about local economy, fish in the river instead of a green biking route
• On the realization of projects we wait for the right moment
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Narrative Amersfoort
• Arno made strong calculations to combine green development with housing
• Suddenly (after elections) a new vice major decided that Randenbroek would just be a green development. “I was convinced that we would find money somewhere”.
• Again one year later, suddenly she was gone
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Outcome of interviews:
Decisions are not always based on rational calculations.
Decisions can be taken by chance, intuition, pragmatismor ideology; sometimes without data.
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routine
routine
crisis
Time
13
2
2
4
5
6
7
2
Moment of transition or tipping point
Planning process
Level of complexity
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Two types of governance• Efficiency driven
– Calculate – Linear– Make a structure plan– Plan
• Adaptive, design– Intuition– Non linear– Ideas– Ideology– Believe– Sudden change of government
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Two types of governance• Efficiency driven
– Calculate – Linear– Make a structure plan– Plan
• Adaptive, design– Intuition– Non linear– Ideas– Ideology– Believe– Sudden change of government
??
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1. Technical planning2. Communicative planning3. Planning by surprise
Outcome depends on intuition, belief and pragmatism and can be highly unpredictable
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Results for the project
• Is it crucial for your project that VALUE proves that green adds Value?
• Efficiency driven:– Project level: yes, calculations show that green
infrastructure works
• Adaptive, by design:– Level of ideas: yes, calculations support ideology and
belief, that economy needs green infrastructure
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Thank you for your attention