planetary stewardship (sybil seitzinger)
TRANSCRIPT
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PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations
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PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations
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Planetary and societal risks
Why we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil SeitzingerExecutive Director
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
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Antarctic ice core
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
Carbon dioxide
MethaneModern humans appear in Africa
Carbondioxide
Temperature
Methane
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Antarctic ice core
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
Carbondioxide
Methane
Beyond natural boundaries
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Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
First migration of fully modern
humans out of Africa
Modern humansarrive in
Australia
Migrations of fully modern humans from South Asia to Europe
Beginningof agriculture
Great Europeancivilizations:
Greek, Roman
The Holocene
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IGBP Climate-change indexGlobal carbon dioxide Arctic sea-ice minimum
Global surface temperature Global sea level
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IGBP Climate-change index
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The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure
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Population
US Bureau of the Census (2000) International databaseIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Total real GDP
Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago PressIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Foreign direct investment
World Bank (2002) data and statisticsIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Damming of rivers
World Commission on Dams (2000)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Water use
Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water ResourcesIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Fertiliser consumption
International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Urban population
The State of the World’s Cities (2001)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Paper consumption
Pulp and paper international (1993)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Motor vehicles
Global environmental outlook (2000)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Telephones
Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World BankIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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International tourism
World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trendsIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Shrimp farm production
IAnnual shrimp production as a proxy for coastal zone alteration. Sources: WRI (2003) A guide to world resources, 2002-2004
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Domesticated land
Amount of land converted to pasture and cropland. Source: Klein Goldewijk and Battjes (1997) National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Bilthoven, Netherlands
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Planetary response
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Atmospheric CO2 concentration
Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Atmospheric N2O concentration
Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Atmospheric CH4 concentration
Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Northern hemisphere average surface temperature
Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Ozone depletion
percentage total column ozone loss over Antarctica, using the average annual total column ozone, 330, as a base. Image: J.D. Shanklin, British Antarctic Survey
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Tropical rainforest and woodland loss
Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland, as estimated for tropical Africa, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. Sources: Richards (1990) In: The Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge
University Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Natural climatic disasters
Decadal frequency of great floods (one-in-100-year events) after 1860 for basins larger than 200 000 km2 with observations that span at least 30 years. Source: Milly et al. (2002) Nature 415:514-517 IGBP synthesis:
Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Fisheries exploitation
Percentage of global fisheries either fully exploited, overfished or collapsed. Source: FAOSTAT (2002) Statistical databases
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Coastal zone nitrogen flux
Model-calculated partitioning of the human-induced nitrogen perturbation fluxes in the global coastal margin for the period since 1850. Source: Mackenzie et al. (2002) Chem. Geology 190:13-32
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Biodiversity loss
Mathematically calculated rate of extinction. Source: Wilson (1992) The diversity of life, the Penguin Press.IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Great acceleration
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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“Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”
Ban Ki-Moon
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A resilient Earth System
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Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament
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Photograph by Annie Griffiths BeltNational Geographic, February 2008 – © National Geographic Society, All rights reserved.
Where are the thresholds in the Earth system?
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Climate Change
Ocean Acidification
Ozone Depletion
Global Freshwater Use
Rate of Biodiversity Loss
Phosphorus
Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
Land System Change
Chemical Pollution
Nitrogen
Rockström et al. 2009
A safe operating space for humanity
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2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum
“The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”
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Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity
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Planetary Stewardship2020 2040 20502030
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New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012
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Planetary and societal risks
Why we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil SeitzingerExecutive Director
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programmewww.igbp.net