Planet Earth in the 21st CenturyPresentation, Kiwanis Club Valdosta

08-08-2014Dr. Michael G. Noll

Graph on the left is based on comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores. It provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased dramatically since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and is now above 400 ppm. (Source: NOAA)

Global Climate Change?

Muir Glacier in Alaska in 1941 and in 2004

The Earth’s History in PerspectiveThe Earth’s History in Perspective

The Earth’s History in One Calendar YearThe Earth’s History in One Calendar Year

- The earth needs until May before “life” appears in the form of microorganisms (Proterozoic Eon / 2500-542 Million BP)

- It only gets interesting in mid November with invertebrates & algae in ancient oceans (Cambrian Period / 542-488 million BP)

- As November progresses, fish and the first terrestrial plants appear (Silurian Period / 444-416 million BP)

- December 12: the dinosaurs have made it! (Triassic Period / 251-200 Million BP)

- In early December reptiles evolve and great swamps form (Carboniferous Period/ 360-300 Million BP)

- End of November, amphibians & first trees appear (Devonian Period / 410-360 Million BP)

The Earth’s History in One Calendar YearThe Earth’s History in One Calendar Year

- December 31, 8PM: first hominids in Africa (Pliocene Epoch / 5.3-2.6 million BP)

- December 20: dinosaurs extinct; mammals rule (Cretaceous Period / 146-66 million BP)

- December 16: first mammals join dinosaurs (Jurassic Period / 200-146 Million BP)

The Earth’s History in One Calendar YearThe Earth’s History in One Calendar Year

- December 31, 11:59PM: humans become agriculturalists (Holocene / 12,000 BP – now)

- 22 seconds before midnight: the pyramids are built

- 1 ½ seconds before midnight: Declaration of Independence is signed

- December 31, 10PM: beginning of last Ice Age (Pleistocene Epoch / 2.6 million - 12,000 BP)

The Earth’s History in One Calendar YearThe Earth’s History in One Calendar Year

Population Growth in PerspectivesPopulation Growth in Perspectives

• > 7 billion today

• 8 billion by 2025?

• 9 billion by 2045?

• 10 billion?

• more?

- Agricultural and industrial revolutions as catalysts for exponential population growth

- Rich global minority (20%) produces 90% of all hazardous waste, consumes 50% of all resources (fossil fuels, metals, etc.), and tells others to just be like them.

Dependence on Fossil FuelsDependence on Fossil Fuels(Fossil Fuels Are Subsidizing an Unsustainable Way of Life)(Fossil Fuels Are Subsidizing an Unsustainable Way of Life)

Fossil Fuels, Pollution & ExternalitiesFossil Fuels, Pollution & Externalities

Heart Disease

Asthma

Cancer

ADHD

Mortality

2050

Barr

els

of

oil p

er

year

(billion

s)

01234

56789

1011121314

Projected U.S.oil consumption

ANWR oil output over 50 years

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Trends and PrioritiesTrends and Priorities

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge? Keystone XL Pipeline? Ethanol? Fracking?

> 70% of the world’s energy demand is > 70% of the world’s energy demand is still covered by fossil fuelsstill covered by fossil fuels

Subsidies on Subsidies on finitefinite sources (fossil fuels) still sources (fossil fuels) still larger than renewable sources (e.g. solar)larger than renewable sources (e.g. solar)

Energy Efficiency and ConservationEnergy Efficiency and Conservation

The US could save more than > 30% of the energy it consumes by improving The US could save more than > 30% of the energy it consumes by improving energy efficiency of buildings, industrial operations, and motor vehicles. energy efficiency of buildings, industrial operations, and motor vehicles.

Part of US East Coast at night as seen from the International Space Station. Starting from the bottom-left and moving to the right, regions include cities in Virginia, the District of Columbia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York. (NYC is on the lower right)

Energy Consumption Made Visible

Cube volumes represent amount of energy theoretically available for geothermal, hydro, wind & solar in terawatt (TW / 1012 watts);small red cube shows the proportional global energy consumption.

How Much Renewable Energy?How Much Renewable Energy?

Regions of Renewable Energy in the USRegions of Renewable Energy in the US

How Much Electricity From Renewable Sources?How Much Electricity From Renewable Sources? (An International Comparison as of 2011) (An International Comparison as of 2011)

Iceland: 100% (geothermal and hydroelectric)

Norway: 97% (mostly hydroelectric)

Canada: 63% (mostly hydroelectric)

Portugal: 47% (hydroelectric, wind)

Germany: 21% (wind, hydroelectric, solar)

United States: 13% (hydroelectric, biomass, wind, solar)

(Source: “How Much Electricity Comes From Renewable Sources”, NYT, March 23, 2013)

Smart Grids & Decentralized ProductionSmart Grids & Decentralized Production

- 2013 WSJ article on distributed solar as “mortal threat” to utilities

(CHP: combined heat and power systems, also known as cogeneration, generate electricity and useful thermal energy in a single integrated system.)

Planned 450 MW offshore wind farms near Nantucket Sound, MA

20 MW thermo-solar plant in Spain with molten salt heat storage technology

Energy Alternatives/Technologies

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

History of the Battery

Algae-powered (biogas) net-zero apartment complex in Hamburg

World's largest thermo-solar plant (377MW) under construction in the Mojave, CA

- Walgreens to build first solar-powered (net-zero) retail store in the US in Evanston, IL

►The renewable energy source in Georgia with the largest potential is solar►Solar Energy Industries Association named Georgia the fastest-growing

solar market in the US 225% increase in solar-related jobs in 2013 In 2013 Georgia reached a capacity of 90MW of solar energy production There are 381 clean energy firms in Georgia, employing thousands of people Georgia’s solar sector generated $279 million gross revenue in 2012; by

comparison

North Carolina’s solar sector with 335MW solar capacity generated > $1 billion Georgia spends billions of dollars a year to import energy (oil, natural gas, coal) Investments in clean energy will allow us to keep a large portion of

money spent on energy within the state, while providing thousands of

jobs for Georgians and protecting the health of our citizens

►Georgia Power’s Advanced Solar Initiative: 900MW by the end of 2016!

Georgia Trend: Growing Green (August 2014)

Growth of US Solar Industry

Solar Energy in Valdosta & Lowndes County

VSU installed its first solar panel array (10 KW) behind Odum Library in 2013.

1.5 MW solar power array near Mud Creek Water Treatment Facility.

Divestment from Fossil Fuels?Divestment from Fossil Fuels?((SourceSource: “Resilient Portfolios & Fossil-Free Pensions”, HIP Investor & GoFossilFree.org): “Resilient Portfolios & Fossil-Free Pensions”, HIP Investor & GoFossilFree.org)

I) “If it is wrong to wreck the planet, then it is also wrong to profit from that wreckage.”

II) “A sustainability-focused portfolio can reduce risk and enhance financial returns.”

III) “Climate change and our overreliance on fossil fuels pose dramatic risks to the health

of our planet and economy.” Like it or not, fossil fuels are finite.

IV) “From Massachusetts to California, universities, communities and churches are realizing

the importance of divesting from fossil fuels.”

V) The inspiration for the divestment campaign comes from successful movements like the

1980s divestment campaign that focused on South Africa, eventually ending Apartheid.

Can We Do It? A History of Human FlightCan We Do It? A History of Human Flight

1783 in Paris, France1903 in North Carolina, USA

Apollo Mission in 1969First solar flight across the US in 2013

How about Rosetta?

Let’s put this journey of a space probe to catch up with a moving target after a

ten year journey of millions of miles through space into perspective.

A brief look at Sabal Trail Pipeline:

“When we tug at a single thing in nature, we find it attached to the rest of the world.” (John Muir)

“We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us. When we see land as a community to which we belong, we may begin to use it with love and respect.” (Aldo Leopold)

“The human race is challenged more than ever before to demonstrate our mastery - not over nature but of ourselves.” (Rachel Carson)

“The nation behaves well if it treats the natural resources as assets which it must turn over to the next generation increased, and not impaired in value. (Theodore Roosevelt)

“Preservation of our environment is not a liberal or conservative challenge, it's common sense.”(Ronald Reagan)

Reflections

“I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” (Thomas Edison)

“No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris …[because] no known motor can run at the requisite speed for four days without stopping.” (Orville Wright)