places in need: the geography of poverty and the american safety … · 2019-12-16 · places in...
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Places in Need: The Geography of Poverty and the American Safety Net
Scott W. AllardProfessor, Evans School of Public Affairs
University of Washington
Nonresident Fellow, Brookings Institution
Co‐Director, Family Self‐Sufficiency Data Center
[email protected] www.scottwallard.com@scottwallard
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Conventional Spatial Discourse around Poverty and Opportunity
Informs scholarship
Guides journalism
Shapes popular understandings
Targets policy discussions and tools
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
Urban = poor Suburban = opportunity
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My Research Questions
• How has the spatial distribution and concentration of poverty shifted across urban and suburban places since 1990?
• How has the safety net responded to the changing geography of poverty in the past decade?
• How should communities organize local safety net activity?
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Data Sources• Demographic and Employment Data
– Census 1990/2000; 2006‐10 American Community Survey– Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics (LEHD),
2002‐10» Metropolitan area, place, county, and tract
• County‐level safety net database, 2000‐10– Administrative data: EITC, TANF, SNAP, SSI– Nonprofit expenditure and revenue data from 990 forms
• Primary data collection ‐ detailed suburban cases– Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington DC– In‐depth interviews with suburban leaders– Pilot survey – Suburban Social Service Providers
• Michigan Recession and Recovery Survey (MRRS)
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What is a Suburb?
No formal definition
Definitions contain key assumptions
Different definitions for different questions
More than just geography
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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What is a Suburb?
All US Metro Counties
Tracts in Largest 100 metro areas
Municipality = urban or suburban?
Inner‐tier suburbs and rural exurbs
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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What Has Happened Since 1990?
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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More than Just More Poor People
Poverty Rates are about twice as high in cities, but have increased twice as fast in suburbs since 1990
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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More than Just More Poor People
More people in extreme poverty in suburbs than in cities
(Less than 50% of federal poverty line, or under $8,784 for family of three in 2010)
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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More than Just More Poor People
Concentrated poverty more prominent in cities, but number of high‐poverty tracts almost doubled in suburbs since 1990
(high‐poverty = +20% poor)
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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What Explains the Trends?
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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What Explains the Trends?
Changes in the Labor Market
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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What Explains the Trends?
Demographic Changes in Population
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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What Explains the Trends?
Immigration and Migration
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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What Explains the Trends?
Collapse of Housing Market
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Why Does It Matter?
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Rising Poverty+
Rising Extreme Poverty+
Rising Concentrated Poverty=
Challenge for Suburban Safety Nets
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Welfare Food Stamps EITC Medicaid
Social Services
Public Private
(≈$15‐20 billion) (≈ $80 billion) (≈ $60 billion) (≈ $70 billion*)
*Able‐bodied Working Age Adults
$150‐200 billionin public & privateexpenditures
Figures reported areannual expendituresin current dollars
≈$100‐200 billionIn expenditures
≈$100 billionin revenues
How the Safety Net Helps
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Safety Net is Inherently Local
Role of Nonprofit Organizations
Local Variation in Capacity
Local Leadership and Political Will
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Some evidence that Public Programs Have Expanded
Similarly in Suburbs and Cities
Suburban Nonprofit Sector Lags Far Behind
Urban Nonprofit Sector
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Challenges Confronting Local Safety Nets
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Challenges Confronting Local Safety Nets
Limited Capacity$, Orgs, & Leadership
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Challenges Confronting Local Safety Nets
Competitive Pressures
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Challenges Confronting Local Safety Nets
Perception Gap
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Challenges Confronting Local Safety Nets
Distance and Transportation
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Challenges Confronting Local Safety Nets
Anti‐Immigrant Sentiment
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Can the Safety Net Adapt?
Scott W. Allard – Places in Need
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Defining Suburbs in the Minneapolis‐St. Paul Metro Area
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41 4254
3727
10 7
4
18
11
86
77
8
66
23
8
26
2
13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Substance Abuse Mental Health EmploymentServices
Food Assistance Human Services
Num
ber o
f Mun
icipalities (N
=67)
Number of Registered Nonprofits in Selected Suburban Municipalities of Chicago, L.A., and D.C.,
by Type of Service Provider and Size of Per‐Poor‐Person Revenues
+$1000
$251 to $1000
$51 to $250
$1 to $50
No RegisteredNonprofits
Note: Figures reported are rounded to the nearest dollar. Values of zero indicate no reported revenues. Service categories reflect the following National Taxonomy of Exempt Entities (NTEE) codes for registered nonprofits: Substance Abuse (F20, F21, F22); Mental Health Treatment (F30, F32); Employment Services (J20, J21, J22); Food Assistance (K30, K31, K35, K36); and, Human Services (P20, P22, P24, P26, P27, P28, P297).
Number of Municipalities by Size of Nonprofit Revenues Per Poor Person
No to Low Nonprofit Capacity in Suburbs
Source: Allard and Roth (2010)