physical mechanism underlying opinion spreading
DESCRIPTION
Physical Mechanism Underlying Opinion Spreading. Jia Shao Advisor: H. Eugene Stanley. J. Shao, S. Havlin, and H. E. Stanley, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103 , 018701 (2009). Questions. How do different opinions influence each other in human society? Why minority opinion can persistently exist?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Physical Mechanism Underlying Opinion Spreading
Jia Shao
Advisor: H. Eugene Stanley
J. Shao, S. Havlin, and H. E. Stanley, Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 018701 (2009).
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Questions
• How do different opinions influence each other in human society?
• Why minority opinion can persistently exist?
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Motivation• Public opinion is important.• Simulation of opinion
formation is a challenging task, requiring reliable information on human interaction networks.
• There is a gap between existing models and empirical findings on opinion formation.
Instead of using individual level network, we propose a community level network to study opinion dynamics.
US presidential elections
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Outline
• Part I: Empirical findings from presidential election
• Part II: Invasion Percolation
• Part III: We propose a dynamic opinion model which can explain the empirical findings
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2008 Presidential ElectionPart I
fDem
fT=0.5
fT=0.3
fT=0.8
We study counties with f>fT
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2008/
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Counties in southern New EnglandPart I
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Counties in southern New EnglandPart I
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Counties in southern New EnglandPart I
Barnstable f=55%Polymouth f=54%Norfolk f=54%Worcester f=57%Fairfield f=52%Litchfield f=47%Windham f=53%Kent f=56%
Vote for Obama
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Counties in southern New EnglandPart I
County network of f>fT=0.6
Number of counties:17Size of largest cluster: 10
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County Network of ObamaPart I
Counties of fObama>fT
50% decrease
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County Network of McCainPart I
Counties of fMcCain>fT
30% decrease
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Clusters formed by counties when fT=fc
Fractal dimension: dl=1.56 =1.86
The phase transition in county network is different from randomized county network.
Part I
County network
Diameter
Clu
ster
Siz
e
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• The real life county election network demonstrates a percolation-like phase transition at fT=fc.
• This phase transition is different from random percolation.
What class of percolation does this phase transition belong to?
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Invasion Percolation
• Invasion percolation describes the evolution of the front between two immiscible liquids in a random medium when one liquid is displaced by injection of the other.
• Trapped region will
not be invaded.
Example: Inject water into earth layer containing oil
A: Injection Point
D. Wilkinson and J. F. Willemsen, J. Phys. A 16, 3365 (1983).
Part II
P. G. de Gennes and E. Guyon, J. Mech. 17, 403(1978).
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Invasion PercolationTrapped Region of size s P(s) ~ s-1.89
Fractal dimension: 1.51 s ~l1.51
S
S. Schwarzer et al., Phys. Rev. E. 59, 3262 (1999).
Part II
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• The phase transition of the county election network belongs to the same universality of invasion percolation.
• Why invasion percolation?
• How can we simulate the dynamic process of opinion formation?
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Evolution of mutually exclusive opinions
Time 0
Time 1
Time 2
: =2:3
: =3:4
stable state(no one in local minority opinion)
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A. Opinion spread for initially : =2:3
stable state : =1:4
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B. Opinion spread for initially: =1:1
stable state : =1:1
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“Phase Transition” on square lattice
critical initial fraction fc=0.5
size of the second largest cluster ×100
Phase 1 Phase 2
A
B
larg
est
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2 classes of network: differ in degree k distribution
Poisson distribution: Power-law distribution:
P(k
)
k
Poisson distribution
Scale Free
Log(
P(k
))Log(k)
Power-lawdistribution
Edges connect randomly Preferential Attachment
(ii) scale-free (i) Erdős-Rényi
( ) ~ exp( )!
ktP k t
k ( ) ~P k k
µ Log
P(k
)Log k
µ µ
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“Phase Transition” for both classes of network
fc≈0.46
Q1: At fc , what is the distribution of cluster size “s”? Q2: What is the average distance “r” between nodes
belonging to the same cluster?
(a) Erdős-Rényi (b) scale-free
fc≈0.30
µ
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Clusters formed by minority opinion at fc
Cumulative distribution function P(s’>s) ~ s-0.89
PDF P(s) ~ s-1.89
r/s(1/1.84) Const.
s ~ r1.84
Conclusion: “Phase transition” of opinion model belongs to the same universality class of invasion percolation.
r
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Summary
• There exists a phase transition in the county election network when changing fT.
• The phase transition of county network can be mapped to oil-field-inspired physics problem, “invasion percolation”.
• We propose a network model which can explain the empirical findings.