Physical Climatology of Indonesian Maritime Continent:An Observational Overview

Manabu D. Yamanaka (JAMSTEC / Kobe-U)

(Photo by Y. Kashino, near Timor)

(Halley, 1686)(Hadley, 1735; reproduced by Lorenz, 1967)

Dawn of scientific description of monsoon and Hadley circulations

(Coffin, 1876;Copied by Yoshino, 1989)

(Discovery/utilization of monsoon: Greek /Arabian sailors >2,400/1,400 years ago;Trade wind recognition/utilization: Polynesian/European >2,000/600 years ago) 

L

H

H

L

H

Geostrophic equilibrium (f u = －ρ-1∂ p/∂y）→ Tropical Easterly

(“Trade Wind”)

Ekman flow (Zonal mom. eq： －f v = －αu） → ITCZ

Annual Mean (Symmetric to Eq)⇒ Hadley Circulation

EquatorSummer

Earth has an almost circular

orbit！

（cf. Mesosphere, Mars）

Winter

Annual Osci. (Eq. Anti-Symmetric)

⇒ Monsoon Circulation

Thermodynam

ics (Adiabatic change ＝

Heating)

Hadley and (“astronomical”) monsoon circulationsAxi-Symmetric Meridional Circulation due to Differential Solar Heating

Seasonal/interannual variation of rainfall distribution

(Murakami and Matsumoto, 1994)(Matsumoto and Murakami, 1992)

intraseasonal variation (ISV) or Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)

or super cloud cluster (SCC) or Matsuno-Gill pattern observed during HARIMAU2011 IOP

L

L(Recalculated from Gill, 1980)

L

L

Boreal winter monsoon (so‐called cold surge) 

Diurnal cycle (clear land after midnight) 

EQ

EQ

EQ

“Hot spot” (aligned  or isolated)

“Eath Simulator” (M.Sato et al., NICAM）MTSAT-IR (August 2010）

Earth and “Aqua-Planet”Convection produces uneven earth

(by IFREE/JAMSTEC)

(Bigg 2005, 2003; Brocker, 1996; Harvey & Oliver 2005)

Surface (wind-driven) & deep (thermohaline) Ocean Circulation

Without landsalmost zonal circulations

(such as in Jupiter, in circum-Antarctic, in the stratosphere)

Indian Ocean － Indonesia － Pacific Ocean

El NiñoDipole mode +

SAIMCAF

La NiñaDipole mode +

SAIMCAF

La Niña

SAAF

Dipole mode −

El Niño

SAAF IMC

Dipole mode −

IMC

Seasonal cycle modification by ENSO

(Hamada , et al., 2002, J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan)

A-I A-II B-I C

JUL JUN

El Nino year (solid )

La Nina year (dashed)

Pontianak BiakBalikpapanKalijeruk

JAN

Jakarta rainfall vs. SST in the dry season

E: El Nino, : Positive IODL: La Nina, : Negative IOD

Jakarta (9 stations) in the dry season (ASO)

Rainfall amountRainfall daysHeavy rainfall days

(Hamada, Urip, Sopia,  et al., 2012, SOLA)

IOD effects (boreal summer/autumn) El Nino effects (boreal summer/autumn)

Global / local effects of IOD / ENSO

Hot Cold Rainy Dry

Forest fires and transbounbdary haze (1994, 1998, 2006)

After JICA

Low wheat production in Australia in El Nino/IOD years

(Watanabe et al., 2014)

El N

inoL

a Nina

1970s

La Nina

El Nino

Warmer water

Cooler water

(NOAA)

Around 2000s“Hiatus”

http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/ENSO/soi-shade-ncep-b.gif

Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti-Darwin pressure difference; 1 year smoothed)

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

−2

−1

0

1

2

War

m(E

l Niñ

o)C

ool

(La

Niñ

a)

−2

−1

0

1

20 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Roman Warm Period Dark Ages Cold Period Medieval Warm Period Little Ice Age

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 BP

Minimum event number required to produce variance

30

20

10

0

Southern Oscillation Index proxy(Indonesia-Galapagos rainfall difference) (Yan et al, 2011: data from Oppo et al., 2009; Conroy et al., 2008)

ENSO event number from geological analysis in Ecuador

EN

SO

eve

nts/

100

year

s

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ts.gif

(Moy et al, 2002)

3

2

1

0

−1

−2

La N

iña

E

l Niñ

o

（NASA, 1992)Recent 1 Myear history of Climate and IMC

Pitecantropes

Solo man

Toba eruptionWajak

ProtoMalay

Austronesina

MajapahitZhèngHé

VOCWW-IIMurdeka

Littl

e G

laci

al

Srivijaya

Ocean: Continent ~ 7: 3 concerved for 400 MYears

http://www.scotese.com/

Rainy (Dec-Feb) Dry (Jul-Sep)

N E S W N N E S W N

QBO

Monsoon

Sea Breeze06 12 18 00 LT

van Bemmelen (1913, 1922)

06‐24 LT hourly for May‐Nov; 08, 14,  19 LT for Dec‐Aprduring 1905‐15 

Lessons from Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda, T1330)

(credit: Dr. Cayanan/PAGASA)

(credit: Dr. Kubota/JAMSTEC)

Not new (not due to global warming)

Radar operated Prediction correct

L

H

H

L

H

Geostrophic equilibrium (f u = －ρ-1∂ p/∂y）→ Tropical Easterly

(“Trade Wind”)

Ekman flow (Zonal mom. eq： －f v = －αu） → ITCZ

Annual Mean (Symmetric to Eq)⇒ Hadley Circulation

EquatorSummer

Earth has an almost circular

orbit！

（cf. Mesosphere, Mars）

Winter

Annual Osci. (Eq. Anti-Symmetric)

⇒ Monsoon Circulation

Thermodynam

ics (Adiabatic change ＝

Heating)

“Astronomical” MonsoonAxi-Symmetric Meridional Circulation due to Differential Solar Heating

Monsoon-driven Seasonal Ocean Current

(Webster, 1999)

“Terrestrial” MonsoonSea-Land Breeze Analogue

Sea Breeze

Land Ocean

Hot

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 0 100 200 300Days from January 1

Diu

rnal

-mea

n in

sola

tion

/ Sol

ar c

onst

ant

90N

EQ

(b)

80S 40S EQ 40N 80NLatitude

Diu

rnal

-mea

n in

sola

tion

/ Sol

ar c

onst

ant

Summer Solstice

Winter Solstice

(c)

0 6 12 18 24Local time on the day of spring equinox

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

Inso

latio

n/ S

olar

con

stan

t

90N

EQ

Diurnal mean at EQ

(d)1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

00 6 12 18 24

Local time on the day of summer solstice

Inso

latio

n/ S

olar

con

stan

t

90N

EQ

Diurnal mean at EQ

20N(e)

80S 40S EQ 40N 80NLatitude

Noo

ntim

e In

sola

tion

/ Sol

ar c

onst

ant

(f)

JAN APR JUL OCT

lat N J/m2(a)

Solar heating on earth with revolution and rotation

Annual cycle dominant in polar region

Diurnal cycle dominant in tropics

1 year

1 day 1 day

Annual & Diurnalcycles around lands

Interannual & intraseasonalvariations over oceans

TRMM Morning－Evening RainMon. mean GMS clouds

Spectral distribution of GMS cloud height

“Find the continents” game

July ‒ January (Wallace & Hobbs, 2006; original  by 

Mitchel)

(Mori et al , 2004)

Southern-hemispheric summer pushed northward

“Aqua Planet”

With Eurasia & Australia

With Eurasia, Australia and IMC

NH summer / SH winter NH winter / SH summer

N EQ S N EQ S

N EQ S N EQ S

N EQ S N EQ S

Monsoon Monsoon

Rain-cooled Air Over Land

Colder Air Over Inland

Warm Air Over Land

Mechanism of Seasonal and Diurnal Cycles

Sea-Land Breeze circulation with cloud “sprinkler” effect

(Wu, Yamanaka & Matsumoto., 2008)

Solar rad. at Serpong/WJawa11-13LT (1993-2002)

(Araki et al., 2007)

Maximum observed solar radiation

Maximum temperature

Astronomicalcalculation

Rainy season

Solar constant

Strong solar radiation in the morning of “rainy season”

(Wu et al., 2007)

Surface Temp. at Pontianak/WKalimantan (Apr 2002)

No “tropical night” in tropics

IMC coastal diurnal-cycle rainfall controlling global climate

(Mori et al., 2004, Mon. Wea. Rev.)Morning Rain － Evening Rain

(S.-Y. Ogino)

3,000                2,000                 1,000                    0                     1,000                 2,000         3,000 km

mm1,300

1,000

700

East Asian TRMM-rainfall as a function of coastline distance

Sea‐side                                                                 Land‐side

(Sulistyowati et al., 2014)

(a)

(b)

(c)Diurnal cycle of river water level (Ciliwung in Jakarta)

Diurnal amplified by monsoon/intraseasonal → Jakarta flood

可搬型マルチパラメタレーダー ウインドプロファイラ―

MIA XDR

気象レーダー 気候観測（InaTRITON）ブイ

インドネシア国立海大陸研究所 (MCCOE)

文科省地球観測システム構築推進プラン（平成17～21年度）地球規模課題国際科学技術協力事業（平成21～25年度）

（安藤ら,  2014）

Contribution to accurate climate prediction Global ocean-atmosphere model

（SINTEX-F）

Local weather forecast （NHM）

(Hattori, Mori, et al., 2014, in preparation)

Hydrological model （CDRMV5）

(Sulistyowati, Hapsari, Mori, Oishi, Yamanaka, 2014, in preparation)

(Hidayat & Ando, 2013, J. Indo.Agroclimat.)

InaTRITON Global analysis (JRA)Obs.Rain / Model Rain / Rice Production

MPR

CDR

MPR

XDR

Satellite obs (MTSAT) Obs / Model - rainfall

Obs /Model ‒ River water

10 years

1 month

1 day

Global weather forecast （GSM）

2013 Janflood

LNIOD－rainy

Simulated by radar obs

Geographical variety of diurnal-cycle “rainfall observed by WPR”Ra

infall am

ount (m

m/h)

Rain freq

uency

Deep ConvectiveShallow Convective

Mixed Stratiform / ConvectiveStratiform

Deep ConvectiveShallow Convective

Mixed Stratiform / ConvectiveStratiform0 0

Pontianak Manado Biak

Local time

Deep convective

Shallowconvective

Mixedconvectivestratiform

Stratiform

(Tabata et al, 2011a, b)★ ★★

(Sumi, 2011, presentation at BMKG)

Downscaling of climate/weather prediction

Climate Researches at MCCOEInternational Project ASEAN Collaboration Year of Maritime Continent (YMC)

(2017‐8, with US, Aus, France, …)(AHA Center)

Basic Research (with JAMSTEC, JAXA, …)

(Arbein et al., 2014, JAXA‐GPM ASIA WS)

Disaster Prevention (with BMKG, BNPB, PU, DKI,…)

(Yoneyama) 

Additional important lesson (from technical failures)Fukushima‐1st Nuclear Power Plant

Made by GE (US) in 1971 and 1974

Pollutant diffusion predicted but not utilized

HARIMAU‐CDR at Serpong stoppage by connector shortage (in humid dusty situation) 

Summary

“Aqua-planet” generates Hadley, (astronomical) monsoon, (global) tides and ISV/MJO.

Lands in oceans turns currents poleward, and reflects waves (making interannual ENSO/IOD)

Indonesian maritime continent with longest coastlines have largest rainfall mainly through

diurnal cycle (sea-land breeze circulation) induced by liquid-solid contrast for solar heating.

High-resolution observation/modeling (< 100 km) over islands/seas resolving coastlines are

necessary to watch/understand/predict the global climate over our planet Earth.

Multi-lateral international collaboration promoted by scientifically established countries must

be promoted to cover both lands and seas by high resolutions.

Tropically/equatorially specialized science/technology different from extratropics must be

developed/established by Indonesia and surrounding ASEAN countries.