photovoltaics: “renewable” concepts for off-grid...
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EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 1 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Photovoltaics: “Renewable” concepts
for off-grid electric power supply in India
German Export Initiative ConferenceDe-centralized power and heat supply utilizing renewable energies
Bengaluru, 24 November 2015
Supported by: Unterstützt durch:
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 2 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
• How does the financing of a PV-park normally work ?
• Change in paradigm: Perception is reality ? - OR - Where does the lab-to-fab gap originate ?
• Quality related issues and possible sources for default
• Quality-audit and -assurance processes as preliminaries for insurability and bankability
• Pathways from the current mode of operation towards operational excellence and bankability
• EXXERGY
• Back up: Hybrid systems
Story line
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 3 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
A PV-park investment should be profitable –
practically this is not always a given
PV-park is an investment
Example:
• Total investment approx.
100 million EUR
• Lifespan of PV-park = 20 years
Investment needs financing and profit
• 100 million EUR need to be available in cash or
bank loan or both
• Profit should be 5% p.a. for 100 million EUR over
period of 20 years (+ initial year)
In ‘000 EUR Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 20 Assumptions
Investment 100.000 Size (MWp) 89
Income from feed-in tarif, PPA 4.830 11.570 11.547 11.138 Irradiation (kWh / kWp) 1.000
Costs of PV-park PPA (EUR / MWh) 130
Running costs of PV-park 1.106 2.678 2.712 3.461 Leverage 79%
EBITDA 3.724 8.892 8.835 7.677 Project IRR 5%
Bank interest (3,6%) 1.185 2.844 2.729 0
Depreciation of PV-park (5% p.a.) 2.083 5.000 5.000 2.917
EBT 456 1.048 1.106 4.760
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 4 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Preliminaries
• Most important components such as PV-panels and -inverters have a performance
guarantee of 20 years (modules) or 10 years (inverters)
• This means, that over the lifespan of 20 / 10 years
• The components are required to be fully functioning
• The components may have a planned – but limited - rate of degradation according to
specification
• Ideally, this should result in a positive cash-flow over 20 years because the PV-park is
earning money according to the planned performance
• The planned performance and therefore, the resulting positive cash-flow may need to be
assured by an insurance or stringent quality assurance measures so that the bank is certain
that interest to the bank loan will be paid back
=> if not, no loan may be handed out
How does financing a PV-park
normally work ?
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 5 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Re-insurer
Insurance broker /
Fronting agent
Specialized
product tester
Auditors
Time
Place
Region
Corporate coverage
Project coverage
Performance coverage
Project owner /
Operator
Project developer /
EPC
Manufacturer
PWI
Insurer
Financing Bank
Lots of businesses participate in realizing a
PV project
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 6 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Re-insurer
Insurance broker /
Fronting agent
Specialized
product tester
Auditors
Time
Place
Region
Corporate coverage
Project coverage
Performance coverage
Project owner /
Operator
Manufacturer
PWI
Insurer
Financing Bank
Possible perception of four exemplary
stakeholders…
Project developer /
EPC
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 7 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
?
Possible perception of PV park investors
• PV is a blue chip investment delivering
“automatic”, reliable, long term returns
• Quality meets industrial standards
Possible self-perception of (some)
manufacturers:
• Price matters, and so does size
• The quality level that the customer accepts is
sufficient
• Certificates and warranties are essentially a
marketing tool
Possible perception of banks
• Typical non-recourse financing structure is
non-investment grade
• Risk exposure is mitigated by
• warranties
• contingency reserve requirement
• leverage limits
Possible perception of insurance companies
• Cover may be avoided, e. g.
• Exclusion clauses (e. g. conforming
components)
• Delayed start of coverage
• Risk mitigation by principle of large policy
numbers vs. quality control
…may suggest the need for a change in
paradigm: Perception is reality ?
Any
missing
links ?
Low risk exposure ?Low risk exposure ?
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 8 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Performance gap
• Lab performance outpaces fab performance development
• Quality levels deteriorating
• Instable production processes
• Poor process control (e. g. 4PP statistically irrelevant)
Factory realities (examples)
• Non-complying materials
• Lack of manufacturing complying with SOP (“shortcuts”)
• QC intervention procedures not consistently established
• Up to 70% rework
Financials / markets / human resources
• High leverage => low investment
• Focus of investment in hardware
• Little maintenance
• Geographic diversification => New target customers less experienced
• High personnel fluctuation (particularly blue collar) => Implications on quality & attitude
Perception is reality ? Some thoughts on
where the lab-to-fab gap might originate
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
gap%
Wp
lab
fab
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 9 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Off-grid and mini-grid: When integrating PV-systems, good quality control along the lifetime is essential
Type of mistake Description Yield reduction
Planning mistake Important design criteria are disregarded or have
not been appreciated
Up to 40%
Component mistakes /
problems
Components don‘t meet name plate functionality Up to 60%
Mounting errors and
mistakes
Quality issues during mounting and construction Up to 20%
Lack of monitoring Inoperative situation or performance issues are
not detected at all or detected too late
Up to 70%
Sources: Analysis Fraunhofer Institute, Voigt & Collegen, TÜV Rheinland
• 30% of inspected operating PV power plants
show serious defects requiring immediate
corrective action
• Most prevalent causes for defects are
related to production of components and
installation
• Module defects up from 25% (previous
investigation) to 43% !Extent of performance assessments:
More than 1,5 GWp inspected
Sources of malperformance
43%
21% 18%
7%
7%
4%
Connection-
distribution boxesCabling
Modules
Mounting
structures
Inverters
Transformer
stations
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 10 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Possible quality defects of a PV-system –
What needs to be looked at …
Possible defects
• Shadowing
• Angle of installation
• Soiling, dirt
• Corrosion
• Delamination
• Cell breakage
• Non complying components
• B-Class modules
• C-Class modules
• Browning
• Cabling
• PID
• …
Cell breakage
Non complying components
12
o Module sind in der Aufständerungsvariante „Aerorack EW-B“ nicht mit der
Unterkonstruktion sicher geerdet. Module liegen nur lose auf und sind nur gegen Diebstahl und „Auswurf“ durch Wind/Schneelasten gesichert.
o Ca. 50-60% der begutachteten Module zeigen an den Busbars erste weiße Farbveränderungen, was auf eine beginnende De-Lamination oder auskristallisiertes nicht aktiviertes Flussmittel schließen lässt.
Delamination
PID
Corrosion
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 11 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Browning and delamination effects due to inferior non-specified material and sloppy lamination
Source: TÜV Rheinland
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 12 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Delamination due to non-standard
processing shortcuts
Source: TÜV Rheinland
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 13 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Delamination
12
o Module sind in der Aufständerungsvariante „Aerorack EW-B“ nicht mit der
Unterkonstruktion sicher geerdet. Module liegen nur lose auf und sind nur gegen Diebstahl und „Auswurf“ durch Wind/Schneelasten gesichert.
o Ca. 50-60% der begutachteten Module zeigen an den Busbars erste weiße Farbveränderungen, was auf eine beginnende De-Lamination oder auskristallisiertes nicht aktiviertes Flussmittel schließen lässt.
Source: EXXERGY DD
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 14 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Corrosion due to excessive use of flux
during soldering
Source: TÜV Rheinland
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 15 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Corrosion
Source: EXXERGY DD
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 16 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Repaired pre-cracked cells being used in
final module (snail trails)
Source: TÜV Rheinland
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 17 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Angle of installation
14
o Sehr starke Verschmutzung der Module auf Halle 1 durch aufsteigenden Dreck aus der Müllsortieranlage in der Haupthalle
Source: EXXERGY DD
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 18 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Cabling
Source: EXXERGY DD
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 19 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Dirt accumulation due to lack of maintenance
Source: TÜV Rheinland
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 20 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Dirt – non-cleaning effect
15
Aufgrund der geringen Dachneigung wird der Schmutz auch bei Starkregen nicht vollständig abgewaschen. Es ist im weiteren Betrieb von sich weiter aufbauenden Schmutzrand im unteren Modulbereich auszugehen, der zu Abschattungen, Moosbildung und damit zu Leistungsmindernung oder regelmäßigem Reinigungsaufwand führt.
Source: EXXERGY DD
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 21 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Non complying modules and components
17
o Es sind unterschiedliche Modultypen mit verschiedenen Herstellern Hanwah/Scatec
(OEM) verbaut. Keine Datenblätter Scatec in der Dokumentation vorhanden.
o Module mit 2 und 3 busbars wurden in der selben Anlage (hier Ahlen 2) durchmischt verbaut
2 Busbar Modul
2 Busbar Modul
3 Busbar Modul 3 Busbar Modul
3 Busbar Modul
2 Busbar Modul
3 busbar panel 3 busbar panel
2 busbar panel2 busbar panel
16
o Es wurde ein Stecker mit Silikonresten im Kontaktbereich aufgrund von unsauberer Produktionsbedingungen gefunden.
o Die Steckerkombination MC4 zu Linyang (Hanwah) oder anderen Herstellern wird zwar üblicherweise in solchen Systemen eingesetzt, ist von Multikontakt aber nicht freigegeben!
Linyang MC4
Source: EXXERGY DD
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 22 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
B-class module B
Source: EXXERGY DD
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 23 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Cell Breakage / C-class module
Source: EXXERGY DD
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 24 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
PID-Test (85°C/85%RH)
Source: EXXERGY DD
0 1
2 3
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 25 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Construction design and maintenance –
What needs to be looked at …
300 MWp PV power plant in Qinghai province (China)
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 26 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Before purchasing PV-components, amanufacturer audit is vital to prevent possible quality issues
Top level competence team
has designed audit to further
a very high standard of quality
(also applicable for
insurability and bankability)
Mandatory elements of
manufacturer audit
1. Production audit
2. PV-park performance
3. Product quality
4. Review of structure,
processes and services
5. Review of financials,
securities
Manufacturer
audit
Production
supervision
Construction
supervision
PV-park
Start-up audit
PV-park
Production
supervision
Installer
certification
program
Random installation
checks
Residential / commercial Utility scale
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 27 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Additionally, two main issues are important
concerning India
Climate according to the Köppen-Geiger
classification scheme
Sources: The Telegraph 10.03.2009
1) The diverse climate conditions 2) Dust / sand storms in arid regions
Climate data
• Cfa up to +50 °C / 100% humidity
in June - August
• BWk between -25°C and +35°C, very dry
Topics of sand storms
• Clear definition and statistical data ?
• Frequency ?
• Intensity ?
• Dust / sand specification and quantity moved
• >>15% performance lossSources: Weatherbase, TÜV Rheinland
Source: UN OCHA Regional Office for Asia-Pacific
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 28 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
1) Different harsh climate zones -
Origin of performance losses in PV-systems
Temperature Dust / sand
Relative humidity /
salt
Type of radiation /
DNI
Wind/ wind gusts
Losses
Performance losses (reversible / partially reversible)
Sand disposal
Hot spots
Short term temperature, humidity and wind
effects
Degradation (aging) (non reversible):
complex phenomena,variable between different module technologies
Light induced degradation (LID)
Temp induced degradation (TID)
Potential induced degradation (PID)
Staebler-Wronski effect:
amorphous silicon cells
Damage
Main PV-system
components
• PV-module
(wafer, cells, back
sheet, …)
• Inverter
• Cabling
• Mounting devices
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 29 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
1) The general hot and harsh climate -
The current standards are technically insufficient
Standard insufficiencies
• Characterization with focus on
different climate (IEC 61853 energy
matrix)
• Unrealistic Nominal Operating Cell
Temperature (NOCT) at 800 W/m² /
20° C
• Temperature range of tests -40° C to
+85°
• Module temperature for stress test
75° C
• Max irradiance for tests 1000 W/m²
• Insufficient UV test
• No sand abrasion test
• Max. temp. determination
parameters
Normalized temperatures [°C]
BacksheetJunction
boxTerminal Diode
1000 W/m²/
40 °C79,3 72,1 70,2 79,6
1100 W/m²/
50 °C102,6 86,6 82,2 92,9
Source: TÜV Rheinland
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 30 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
2) Example desert storms –
Possible destruction from dust / desert storms
Possible defects Possible effect
• Coverage of PV-systems by dust / sand Significant
performance loss
• Deformation or destruction of parts or whole Complete destruction
PV-system
• Sand blowing of glass panels => abrasion High performance loss, destruction of modules
• Corrosion of mounting structure Partial / complete destruction
• Back-sheet delamination Significant performance loss
• Corrosion of plastics Significant performance loss,
(junction box, connecting cables, safety hazards
EVA, backsheet, …) (e. g. destruction of electric insulation)
• …
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 31 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
2) Desert storms or just simple deposition –
soiling causes significant performance losses
Scenarios
• Daily cleaning of one
system, no cleaning of
the other
• Section 1: both
systems cleaned
• Section 2,3,4: one
system not cleaned
• From „D“ on rainfall
and no manual
cleaning
Cleaning
period [d]
Power
degradation [%]
0 0
2-5 5
13 10
18 15
25 20
35 25
45 30
Source: TÜV Rheinland
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 32 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
What are the unsolved challenges concerning
PV-systems in India ?
• Is there a general awareness for quality, processes, and audits ensuring that PV-systems
in India are built to high quality standards ?
• If yes, are these processes sufficient ?
=> SOLUTION: Audit and project supervision meeting state-of-the-art standards
• How to define suitable products for India’s climate zones ?
• Is there a suitable standard for each component for each extreme climate zone ?
• How to define and measure the standards ?
=> SOLUTION: Proposal for test standards and product development
• Can the performance of PV-systems be insured in India ?
=> SOLUTION: Modification of current solutions to suit market and insurance needs
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 33 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Photovoltaics: Considerations, requirements, and
applications for off-grid energy supply
=> Conclusions
• Photovoltaic is a viable technology and can deliver reliable returns and is competitive versus
diesel power generators in many regions
• Hybrid electricity systems combine advantages compared to pure diesel power generators
because they are cleaner, more flexible, more cost efficient, less depending on diesel and its
cost and logistics
• Reliable investment returns for PV-systems can be realized by diligence and quality
assurance during the entire lifecycle (planning, construction, and operation and
maintenance)
• There are special quality requirements for India:
• Current certification standards are not suitable for product qualification for extreme climates
• Current quality assurance standards and compliance practice are generally largely
insufficient
• Soiling can have a huge impact on system performance
=> Cleaning intervals and technology must be identified for the site
• Sandstorm testing is only a small part of the qualification and must be adapted for the target
region
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 34 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
• EXXERGY
Agenda
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 35 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
EXXERGY covers business fields
with competence
Corporate
Strategy
Markets
Finance
Human
Resources
Technology
Processes
Regional focus:
• China
(Shanghai, Hong Kong)
• Europe (Frankfurt, Munich)
• North America
(New York, San Francisco)
• South America (São Paulo)
• Upcoming: Middle East
Sales and marketing
Organizational development
Mergers and acquisitions
Market analysisConcept development
New markets and market entryProduct development
Business planning
Tailor-made financing structures
Fund raising
Performance warranty Insurance
Leadership and HR -development
Management assessment
Recruitment
Technology transfer
Innovation control
Process optimization
Comprehensive manufacturer audits
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 36 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
• Well established consulting company
• Consultancy competencies: Technology, market intelligence, management, strategies
• Focus on: Companies in the energy and glass industries
Renewable energy and energy efficiency
• Thorough understanding of the industry, it’s cycles, business rules,
trends (political, technological, demand, supply, …)
• Listening to and understanding our customers; tailor made approach and solutions
• Qualified and comprehensive solutions from one single source
for all relevant strategic and operational areas
• Years of operational industry experience, extensive expertise and
thorough understanding of critical business processes
• Experts in working out sustainable strategies
• Wide network of experienced consultants (app. 60) and specialized cooperating companies
• Alliance of competences ensures flexibility
Who is EXXERGY ?
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 37 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
• Focus on the renewable energy market
• Well connected in the industry and clear understanding of the industry
• Holistic business approach, no stand alone solutions
• Customer focused, tailor-made solutions, flexibility
• Working in a network structure of experts
• All consultants with long standing operative experience and international back-ground
• Present in all major markets (Asia, EU, USA)
What we do different from
competing consultancies
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 38 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Technical auditor
• Due to harsh climate, development of new and
appropriate product and production standards
• Auditor is / could be the, or one of the leading
forces to develop and supervise those
standards
Idea: Technical auditor and EXXERGY ?
EXXERGY
• With the performance warranty product,
EXXERGY conceptualized and realized in
practice a holistic, measurable approach
towards total quality assurance from modules
to PV-parks along the entire value chain
• Broader business and problem solving
approach leading to longer consultancy
value chains
Business idea
• Integrating new standards in India in the
“broader” framework of “PWI” quality process
• Adapting PWI from “Focus on financing” to
“Focus on “fit for climate PV value chain””
Ultimate goal auditor / EXXERGY
• More and broader consultancy work
• Better visibility of Auditor and EXXERGY
in India
• Establishing benchmark for all
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 39 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
• Unbiased consulting
• Experience, know-how and track record for QA from PWI-project
• Through FLYTEX / Koch Membranen activity
• Experience, know-how and track record from environmental conditions simulation for
special materials (composites)
• Experience in design and construction of textile architectures in regions with harsh
climates (e. g. Burj al Arab in Dubai)
• High level contacts to major module manufacturers
• India local content policy:
• If required: EXXERGY can support establishing manufacturing and EPC operations
• If not: EXXERGY can help winning and developing top Chinese module manufacturer
to produce modules according to standards suiting the climates fitting regional
requirements (technical auditor)
• Holistic consulting approach: Leveled approach concerning all aspects of business
(Quality-technical-production related topics, human resource, strategy, sales, distribution, …)
• Experience and know-how from the performance warranty insurance product development
process
• Different market player communication
(more / other topics and different style of communication)
• …
What does EXXERGY bring to the party ?
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 40 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Imprint
Thomas C. Sauer, CEO
T +49 69 9510319-20
EXXERGY GmbH
Am Wasserbogen 28
D 82166 Gräfelfing
T +49 89 57954530
F +49 89 57954531
Office Frankfurt
Dillenburger Str. 23
D 60439 Frankfurt
T +49 69 - 9510319-0
F +49 69 - 9510319-10
Internet
www.exxergy.com
EXXERGY Inc.
98 Pipers Hill Road
Wilton, CT 06897, USA
T +1 203 665 0390
Office Shanghai
8/F Shanghai Yueda 889
1111 Changshou Road
Jing'An District
Shanghai, 200042
PR China
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 41 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
• Back up: Hybrid systems
Agenda
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 42 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Story line
• Definition off-grid, mini-grid, main-grid
• Diesel power generators as the main source of energy in off-grid and mini-grid systems
• PV-systems as a viable alternative to diesel power generators in a hybrid energy system
• Quality related issues and possible sources for default in PV-systems
• Special circumstances concerning India due to harsh climate
• Quality assurance for PV-systems as a very important topic
• EXXERGY
• Back up: Quality issues
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 43 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Definition of
off-grid, mini-grid, and main grid
Off-grid: Several kW only; 1 energy source 1 user;
i.e. single home or single purpose
Home, Mongolia Pumping station, Nigeria Radio tower supply, Austria Hospital and schools, Cambodia
Mini-grid: Several kW up to several MW; several energy sources and users;
i.e. electrification of remote areas and islands
Main grid: GWs; multiple energy sources and users;
i.e. national grid of Germany
Sources: IBC Solar, ZVEI
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 44 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Today, off-grids and mini-grids mainly use
diesel power generators as a source of energy
Advantages
• Supply on demand with high turn-down capability
(but min. approx. 25%)
• In the past, cheap power source
• Commonly known technology
Disadvantages
• Increasing cost of oil
• Either direct cost (oil importers) or
• Revenue gap (oil exporters)
• Logistics / transport of diesel and its cost
• Requires high utilization rate
• Response time to major load jumps
• Pollution (noise, air, spilling of diesel)
• High maintenance requirement
• Many old and inefficient generators operating
• …
Diesel power generator in IndiaSource: Noida, Uttarpradesh - ZVEI
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 45 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Compared to diesel power generators,
PV-systems are increasingly competitive
Sources: EIA, DOE NREL Solar Technologies Market Report Jan 2010, BSW, ECB, EXXERGY own estimates and calculations
Assumptions:
Genset efficiency 3.5 kWh/l (net electricity production) @ 1 USD/l; Capex and maintenance cost for Diesel not included (incumbent system)
PV power cost based on 1500 kWh/kWp at EU market system price (EPC cost base), 30% equity, 3.6% interest rate, 20 years period, 5% IRR
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Diesel power generation (USD/kWh) Solar power generation (USD/kWh)
$/kWh
Diesel power generation
Solar power generation
Ele
ctr
icity
genera
tion c
ost
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 46 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
PV-systems offer attractive, long term
paybacks …
Sources: SMA, German Development Agency, GlobalPetrolPrices.com (30-10-2015), EIA, EXXERGY own calculations
Effective cost at point of consumption on an all-in cost basis
Assumptions: 1 MWp PV plant; 100% of PV power utilization, Capex 2,000 USD/kWp; Opex = 2% of Capex; PV financing with 30% equity, 7% interest rate
Genset efficiency 3.5 kWh/l (net electricity production); Capex and maintenance cost for Diesel not included (incumbent system)
Saudi Yemen India
Arabia USA worldwide average
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5
Pa
yb
ack t
ime
(ye
ars
)
Diesel cost (USD/l)
900 kWh/kWp 1500 kWh/kWp 2100 kWh/kWp
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 47 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Adopting renewables for power supply requires
careful design to follow actual demand
Challenges
• Renewable energy generators are
typically not available 24/7
(exceptions: hydro, biomass)
• In a “renewable only” scheme, system
voltage may fluctuate already under
normal operating conditions
clouds, high wind speeds, high wind
fluctuations
• Existing standards may be insufficient
and / or incompatible to meet the
requirements for potential future
upgrades (increasing demand or grid
mergers)
• Turn-down capability may be limited
resulting in system voltage and/or in
frequency fluctuations
=> Possible damage to point-of-use
devices
Solutions
• For continuous electricity supply,
renewable electricity generation needs
to be complemented
=> Hybrid system to support stable
frequency and system voltage
• Battery systems
• Co-generator of heat and power
• Diesel generators
• Fly wheels
• Robust and intelligent design with a
suitable working interaction is key for
hybrid systems
• Off-grid and mini-grid systems can
merge to a local grid with increasing
interconnection
=> uniform standards are a pre-
requisite
• Solid planning and framework at the
outset are essential pre-requisites for
stable power supply
EXX India 24112015 FINAL.pptx 48 Business Confidential I © 2015 by EXXERGY GmbH
Changing from diesel genset to hybrid electricity
supply is a viable solution
Renewable energy source
(solar, wind)
Diesel
power generator
Power
storage system
(batteries, flywheels …)
System control
Diesel generator only Hybrid electricity system
Advantages: Cleaner, more flexible, more cost efficient, easier logistics,
less depending on diesel and its cost
Focus