phillip securities research pte ltd 21 july 2011...

(MICA (P) 027/12/2010) Ref No: RM2011_0140

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd 21 July 2011

Singapore Technicals & Inter-market (Short/Intermediate Term Outlook): � The STI finished 30.41points (0.98%) higher on Wednesday to close at 3,126.53.

A total of 1.68billion shares changed hands on a market turnover of S$1.90 billion as rises outnumbered falls by 355 to 179.

� The Shanghai Composite Index closed lower for the third-straight session on Wednesday, edging down 2.78 points (0.1%) to end below the psychological 2,800 level at 2,794.2 points. Test of 2,800 region going on. At this point the index is still digesting the level and likely, watching the geopolitical developments in the US and Europe as well.

� The S&P 500 shed 0.89 points (0.07%), closing at 1,325.84. Daily range was amongst the smallest we have seen, a 5 point high to low. Market participants are likely cautious going into 22July, the deadline President Obama gave to Congress to resolve the debt ceiling issue.

� The EU is also holding an Economic Summit today to find a convincing solution to Greece's debt crisis. On the U.S. economic front, existing home sales fell unexpectedly to a seven-month low in June as cancellations of pending contracts surged.

� The STI surged higher yesterday, following through the US session’s momentum from the day before, closing at 3,126. Likely, it will track Shanghai’s movement today given the very quiet US session last night. Ideally, we see 3,120 hold up as support. At 3,140 lies the 200 day average which we anticipate to act as resistance. We continue to watch for a breakout of the long standing triangle formation that we highlighted on Tuesday’s report.

� Support at 3,120 before 3,100. Resistance at 3,140, before the 3,150/55 region.

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 3126.53 30.41 0.98P/E (x) 10.49P/Bv (x) 1.60

2.83Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2800

3000

3200

3400

7/20 10/20 1/20 4/20 7/20

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong � Local stock market traded choppy yesterday and rebounded ahead of the US

corporate earnings and the oncoming debt-ceiling deadline. The HSI and HSCEI pared earlier losses and gained 101.29 points and 85.71 points to close at 22003.69 and 12382.67 respectively. Market volume was 66.82 billion.

� Although the rights issuing of CMB triggered the optimism of mainland banks to fulfilling the expected tighter capital requirement ratio, we remain bearish on their short-term performance. On the other hand, the rebound of electrical appliance production volume and automobile sales may trigger the short term nice performance of home appliance and vehicle producers in short-term. Cement and coal producers remain our top-pick in mid and long term due to the higher demand from affordable housing projects and higher energy demand.

� For near term, we reiterate our view that the HSI would demonstrate a choppy trend and fluctuate between the range of 21500-22300.

� We peg resistance for the HSI at 22120 and support at 21850-900.

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 22003.69 101.29 0.46P/E (x) 11.55P/Bv (x) 1.67

2.97Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

7/20 10/20 1/20 4/20 7/20

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Market Focus 21 July 2011

2

Thailand � The SET index extended its gains and successfully broke above 1100 in

moderate volume. Gains were led by big-cap energy and telecoms shares and profit taking emerged in the banking sector after earnings announcements despite impressive results. Foreign investors continued to be net buyers of Thai shares to the tune of Bt4,590.42m on Wed.

� The market’s uptrend remains in place while awaiting developments in Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and the oncoming US debt ceiling deadline. Yesterday foreign net buying of Thai shares nearly topped Bt4.6b, a factor that could help keep bullish sentiment intact. The Thai baht also built on its gains to 29.88 per US dollar in early Thu trade (0740 hrs Thailand time). However, it would not be surprising if the SET index could see intraday weakness after a five-day streak of positive closes but we believe the pace of decline is unlikely to be steep. Overall we expect Thai stocks to trade in a tighter band today. Domestic political developments and clarity about external uncertainties also remain the key factors to watch going forward.

� For short-term strategy, ‘trading buy’ still makes sense for the Thai market, in our view.

� Resistance on the main index is pegged at 1110-1113 and support at 1100-1095 today.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1101.37 4.60 0.42P/E (x) 14.19P/Bv (x) 2.99

3.50Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

7/20 10/20 1/20 4/20 7/20

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia � Last Wednesday, The Indonesian stock market broke into another new record

this year with the JCI closed at 4,050.63 or up 0.68% (+27.22 points). JCI moved with dominance in positive territory throughout two trading sessions. This was largely boosted by market optimism that US could prevent its default risk. During the day, JCI made an intra-day low of 4,020.82 and intra-day high of 4,055.05.

� The upward movement was mainly led by gains in GGRM (consumer), EMTK (trade & service), ITMG (mining), and BSDE (construction & property). JCI gain was limited by losses for PGAS (infrastructure), and BMRI (finance), BNGA (finance), and ISAT (infrastructure). The breadth of the market was positive with 141 shares advancing as compared to 95 that declined. Trading value was recorded at IDR 4.7 trillion (US$ 551 million).

� We expect the JCI to trade today at support-resistance level of 4,010-4,080. Close +/- % +/-

JCI Index 4050.63 27.22 0.68P/E (x) 18.54P/Bv (x) 3.28

1.85Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

7/20 10/20 1/20 4/20 7/20

Source: Bloomberg


3

Singapore Keppel Land Ltd – Company Results Recommendation: Hold Previous close: S$3.63 Fair value: S$4.18 � Lower 2Q11 results due to absence of physical project completion in overseas residential developments � Decent sales achieved in most residential markets � Good results from fund management segment with segmental net profit increased 52% y-y in 1H11 � Ocean Financial Centre is expected to contribute maiden income and revaluation gain by end-FY11. � Maintain Hold with fair value lowered to $4.18, China residential market remains key concern Yong Xin – Company Update Recommendation: Nil (Cease Coverage) Previous close: S$0.060 Fair Value: S$0.116 � It is slow in increasing its utilisation of its stainless steel strips capacity, which formed the basis of our initial bullishness. � Selling prices in stainless steel strips have not recovered back to FY2007 highs while that of cold-rolled steel strips are back there. � Depreciation, the necessary evil in its period-cost nature, is punishing. � Customers lie in sectors that dictate low margins; 1Q11 saw these own margins lower; which could mean further squeeze. � Potential to re-focus efforts back to cold-rolled steel strips is very positive, though. � Its peer, China Gerui, which has been doing all the right things, expands chromed-plated steel strips capacity – a positive signal.

Hong Kong Angang Steel –Company Update Recommendation: Hold Previous Close: HK$8.03 Fair Value: HK$9.03 � The increase of Angang Steel’s products were below the market average and the steelmaking cost kept rising in 1H11, dragging the

Company’s profitability, which has kept low, and its net profit was down 92% y/y to RMB220 million. � Looking forward into 2H11, the plate demand could not be optimistic, but crude steel capacity limitation may drive up steel prices,

expected to hedge the rise of iron ore price. � We expect the Company to realize net profit of RMB1.243 billion in 2011 and RMB1.809 billion in 2012, which is converted to EPS of

RMB0.17 and RMB0.25 respectively, and the BVPS will hit RMB7.49 and RMB7.66. � Considering its valuation standing at low level in past years, we give it 1X P/B of 2011F BVPS and the 12-month target price of HK$9.03,

rating Hold.

Thailand Thai Oil – Company Preview Recommendation: BUY Previous close: Bt75 Fair value: Bt97 � We expect TOP to post a 2Q11 net profit of Bt3,150m or Bt1.54 a share, up as much as 193.2% YoY but down 56.4% QoQ. � In 2H11, aromatics business is likely to recover first before refinery business which is expected to pick up in late 2011. � We reiterate a 'BUY' rating on TOP with a 2011 price target of Bt97/share.

Please log in to POEMS for access to full reports


4

Market News

US � Sales of previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in June to a seven-month low as the industry struggled to overcome rising

unemployment and foreclosures. Purchases dropped 0.8 percent to a 4.77 million pace, data from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median projection in a Bloomberg News survey called for a gain to 4.9 million. Inventories increased, more contracts were canceled and 30 percent of transactions last month were of distressed dwellings, the figures showed. Stricter lending rules, unemployment above 9 percent and delays in processing foreclosures mean it may take years to reduce the number of distressed properties on the market even as all-cash purchases have recently helped buoy demand. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the decline in confidence and lack of job growth that are impeding consumer spending are also keeping real estate “depressed.” (Source: Bloomberg)

� The Obama administration signaled it may accept a short-term increase in the U.S. debt limit only if lawmakers need a few days to finish

work on a broader agreement to cut the deficit. President Barack Obama “must have a firm commitment to something big” on cutting the deficit before he would sign a short-term rise in the debt ceiling, White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters at a briefing. He released a written statement later saying Obama “does not support a short-term extension” unless “a few days” are needed “for a bill to work its way through the legislative process.” The president called congressional leaders to the White House today as the Aug. 2 deadline for raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit nears. (Source: Bloomberg)

Singapore � The premium for a big-car COE jumped yesterday in response to the impending 17 per cent cut in the number available for this category

from next month onwards. A certificate of entitlement for Category B (cars above 1,600 cc) surged $4,000 to $72,501. The last time a similar category was higher was exactly 16 years ago. Motor distributors attribute yesterday's tender result to last Friday's announcement of the new COE quota for the next six months, from August 2011 to January 2012. The new quota will be largely unchanged at 22,324 COEs from the 22,368 in the preceding six months. (Source: BT Online)

� Hong Kong and Singapore have become the top two business locations in the world - beating Western cities such as London and New

York - as multinational corporations seek their fortunes in Asia. A new study by CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) yielded these findings. The property consultancy tracked the office locations of 280 of the world's largest corporations, and found that 68.2 per cent of the companies had a presence in Hong Kong. Singapore was a close second with a tally of 67.5 per cent, and Tokyo was third with 63.9 per cent. In fourth position was London, with a score of 63.2 per cent. Shanghai rounded up the top five with 61.4 per cent. London was the only Western city in the top-five league. Renowned cities Paris and New York were 10th and 11th respectively. (Source: BT Online)

� Aspiring homebuyers have put in bids for more than thrice the 3,556 flats offered under the HDB's latest build-to-order projects. By 5pm

yesterday, the Housing & Development Board had received a total of 11,548 bids for the seven projects, located in Bukit Panjang, Jurong West, Sengkang, Tampines and Yishun, according to the HDB's website. (Source: BT Online)

Greater China Region � “Tweleve-five years plan” comprehensive energy reduction program approved by the principle. In July 19 morning, , the Wen Jiabao,

chaired the national response to climate change and energy conservation leadership group meeting, considered and agreed in principle to the comprehensive energy reduction work program, energy-saving target decomposition scheme and the main pollutant emission control program to study the deployment of related work. (Source: xinhuanet)

� Following Moody's, the rating agency Fitch has joined the ranks of Mainland enterprises. Recently, Fitch published a report on the 35

Mainland entreprises which is a corporate governance and accounting reports, many large state-owned shares to be included in the watch list. However,in the last two days does not appear a cliff-style crash on the stocks, the negative impact of report in the capital market is greatly reduced. In the watch list of 35 companies, there are 27 listed companies in Hong Kong, of which there are many large state-owned enterprises, the red chips and so on. (Source: ce.cn)

Thailand � Foreign investors remained net buyers of Thai shares worth Bt4,590.42m on Wed. (Source: Bisnews) � Thai Industries Sentiment Index (TISI) slipped to 107.4 in Jun 2011 from a reading of 108.3 in May, according to the Federation of Thai

Industries (FTI). The decline was attributed to the recent floods in the North, concern about political uncertainty, mounting production costs and fragile global economic recovery. (Source: Bangkok Post)

� The Joint Private Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JCCIB) is opposed to the Pheu Thai Party’s policy to raise the daily

minimum wage nationwide to 300 baht as it would impact the economy and employment. The private sector wanted the daily minimum wage to be considered in line with the market mechanism and without political interference. (Source: Bangkok Post)

� The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI)’s Automobile Industry Club said its 2011 vehicle output target of 1.8m units is likely to be met as

automakers beefed up production in Jun to offset the lost output as a result of parts supply shortage stemming from Japan’s Mar 11 catastrophe. In 1H11, car export revenue fell slightly by 4% to Bt270b. (Source: Krungthep Turakij)


5

Indonesia � Vegetable oil production may gain 4 % in 2011 following a larger increase last year as higher yields in Malaysia and Indonesia boost

palm-oil output, Oil World said. World production of palm, soy, cotton, groundnut, sun, rape, palm kernel and coconut oils will rise to 145.7 million metric tons this year, Oil World said. Palm oil production will rise 8.5 % to 49.8 million tons, according to the report. Soy oil output will gain 5.2 % to 42.3 million tons, the researcher said. Palm oil futures have lost 18 % this year on prospects for bigger inventories as better weather resulted in higher output from Indonesia and Malaysia, the biggest producers. Malaysia will produce 18.6 million tons of palm oil in 2011, up 16 % from a three-year low last year, Oil World said. Indonesia’s output this year will rise 8.1 % to 24 million tons, according to the report. Palm oil production in the second half of the year will total 26.8 million tons, up 2.2 million tons from last year, Oil World said. Malaysian output will gain 9 % from the second half of last year to 10 million tons and Indonesian production will rise 7.2 % to 13.3 million tons, according to the report. (Source: Bloomberg)

� The Indonesian government said that it would spend USD 700 million to buy the stake held by Nippon Asahan Aluminium (NAA) in their

joint venture Indonesia Asahan Aluminium. The government will purchase NAA’s 58.9 percent stake in the firm known as Inalum before its working contract ends in 2013. Inalum was set up in 1978 under a build, own and transfer contract that expires in 2013. Inalum’s production of 230,000 tons of aluminum a year accounts for 40 % of total domestic output. (Source: Jakarta Globe)

� Fitch Ratings said it sees higher prospects for Indonesia to get a positive rating action ahead of the Philippines, weeks after it lifted the

Philippines' credit rating to a notch below investment grade. In April, Fitch Ratings said in a report that Indonesia's prospects of securing an upgrade to an investment grade rating of BBB- or above would be bolstered by sustained economic growth and continued strengthening of its external balance sheet. It has positive outlooks on Indonesia's Long-Term Foreign Currency and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings of BB+. (Source: Reuters)


6

Dollar Index 74.87 +0.01%

70

75

80

85

90

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11

Source: Bloomberg

Gold 1600.50 -0.02%

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11 7/21/11

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil 98.14 +0.66%

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11

Source: Bloomberg

US Treasury 10yr Yield 2.9275 +1.64%

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11

Source: Bloomberg

FSSTI 3126.53 +0.98%

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11

Source: Bloomberg

DJI 12571.91 -0.12%

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11

Source: Bloomberg

HSI 22003.69 +0.46%

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

25000

26000

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11

Source: Bloomberg

SET 1101.37 +0.42%

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

07/21/10 10/21/10 01/21/11 04/21/11

Source: Bloomberg


7

JCI 4050.632 +0.68%

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

3550

3800

4050

4300

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11

Source: Bloomberg

SHCOMP 2794.205 -0.10%

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11

Source: Bloomberg

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH 6682.46 +0.10%

2300

2550

2800

3050

3300

3550

3800

4050

4300

7/21/10 10/21/10 1/21/11 4/21/11

Source: Bloomberg


8

Major World Indices

Indices % Chg Chg Last Indices % Chg Chg Last

TEL AVIV 100 INDEX +0.94 +10.62 1142.79 ALL ORDINARIES INDX +1.74 +79.00 4618.40

HANG SENG INDEX +0.46 +101.29 22003.69 S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX +0.06 +7.91 13340.83

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX +0.68 +27.22 4050.63 FTSE 100 INDEX +1.10 +63.83 5853.82

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI +0.45 +6.95 1562.59 CAC 40 INDEX +1.61 +59.65 3754.60

KOSPI INDEX +1.16 +24.74 2154.95 DAX INDEX +0.40 +28.69 7221.36

NIKKEI 225 +1.17 +116.18 10005.90 DOW JONES INDUS. AVG -0.12 -15.51 12571.91

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX +0.42 +4.60 1101.37 S&P 500 INDEX -0.07 -0.89 1325.84

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -0.10 -2.78 2794.21 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX -0.43 -12.29 2814.23

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX +2.13 +181.60 8706.17 NYSE Arca Gold BUGS +0.88 +4.99 573.70

BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX -0.81 -151.49 18502.38

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

+0.10 +6.76 6682.46

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Top Value & Volume

Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume

GENTING SINGAPOR

1.78 -2.73 -0.05 386,473,100 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC

1.78 -2.73 -0.05 216,696,000

OCBC BANK 9.67 +2.55 +0.24 157,123,100 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD

0.72 +2.14 +0.02 95,949,000

SINGAP TELECOMM

3.27 +1.24 +0.04 108,790,000 NEXT-GENERATION SATELLITE CO

0.03 +4.17 +0.00 61,184,000

DBS GROUP HLDGS

14.96 +1.08 +0.16 103,903,400 TIGER AIRWAYS HOLDINGS LTD

1.14 +13.50 +0.14 53,533,000

NOBLE GROUP LTD

1.82 +1.39 +0.03 72,361,640 YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING

1.37 +3.40 +0.05 46,640,000

GOLDEN AGRI-RESO

0.72 +2.14 +0.02 68,018,740 NOBLE GROUP LTD 1.82 +1.39 +0.03 39,913,000

YANGZIJIANG SHIP

1.37 +3.40 +0.05 63,636,240 SUNMOON FOOD COMPANY LTD

0.00 +0.00 +0.00 36,750,000

KEPPEL CORP LTD

10.80 +1.60 +0.17 62,201,890 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD

3.27 +1.24 +0.04 33,533,000

TIGER AIRWAYS 1.14 +13.50 +0.14 57,543,310 RAMBA ENERGY LTD

0.61 +18.63 +0.10 33,493,000

UNITED OVERSEAS

19.86 +0.91 +0.18 50,525,660 PSL HOLDINGS LTD 0.40 +1.28 +0.01 28,877,000



9

Hong Kong


CHINA MOBILE 74.55 +3.04 +2.20 3,158,176,000 ZIJIN MINING-H 4.28 -5.73 -0.26 471,334,769

CNOOC LTD 17.48 -3.21 -0.58 3,047,865,000 BANK OF CHINA-H 3.54 +0.28 +0.01 364,573,282

ZIJIN MINING-H 4.28 -5.73 -0.26 2,025,094,000 COSMO INTL 1000 0.13 +6.35 +0.01 289,180,000

HSBC HLDGS PLC 75.20 -0.07 -0.05 1,387,418,000 EFORCE HLDGS LTD

0.03 -9.68 -0.00 284,282,000

CHINA CONST BA-H 6.07 +0.00 +0.00 1,300,021,000 SEMICONDUCTOR MA

0.49 -3.00 -0.02 257,305,900

BANK OF CHINA-H 3.54 +0.28 +0.01 1,289,727,000 CHINA CONST BA-H

6.07 +0.00 +0.00 213,910,828

IND & COMM BK-H 5.71 +0.71 +0.04 1,145,731,000 SUNCORP TECH LTD

0.02 +0.00 +0.00 206,738,400

PETROCHINA CO-H 11.58 +1.05 +0.12 811,935,700 IND & COMM BK-H 5.71 +0.71 +0.04 201,092,529

HUTCHISON WHAMPO

83.35 +1.28 +1.05 763,207,800 CNOOC LTD 17.48 -3.21 -0.58 173,443,237

XINYI GLASS HOLD 6.89 -7.64 -0.57 752,016,500 CH YUNNAN TIN 0.05 +18.18 +0.01 173,320,000


Thailand


KASIKORNBANK PCL

133.50 -1.84 -2.50 1,270,000,000 NEP REALTY & IND

0.81 -2.41 -0.02 143,935,600

BANGKOK BANK PUB

169.00 +1.20 +2.00 1,230,000,000 TMB BANK PCL 2.04 +0.00 +0.00 160,434,400

PTT PCL 346.00 +1.76 +6.00 1,130,000,000 BTS GROUP HOLDIN

0.71 +0.00 +0.00 116,386,100

SIAM COMM BK PCL 118.50 -2.07 -2.50 933,760,000 INTL ENGINEERING

0.02 +0.00 +0.00 41,005,900

KRUNG THAI BANK 19.90 -0.50 -0.10 918,780,000 IRPC PCL 5.65 +0.00 +0.00 56,161,300

BANGKOK BANK-F 171.00 +2.70 +4.50 833,680,000 M LINK ASIA CORP

2.10 -4.55 -0.10 62,686,000

KASIKORNBANK-FOR

137.00 +0.37 +0.50 833,680,000 JASMINE INTL PCL

3.16 -0.63 -0.02 214,446,600

BANK AYUDHYA PCL

28.25 -1.74 -0.50 696,040,000 PROP PERFECT PCL

0.98 +6.52 +0.06 462,916,000

PTT EXPL & PROD 182.50 -0.82 -1.50 724,426,000 THAI-GERMAN PRO

0.43 +0.00 +0.00 95,138,700

IRPC PCL 5.65 +0.00 +0.00 319,722,000 RAIMON LAND PCL

1.28 -0.78 -0.01 53,726,400



10

Indonesia


BUMI RESOURCES 3075.00 0.82 25.00 210,966,800,000 BAKRIELAND DEV 167.00 3.09 5.00 939,342,500

BANK MANDIRI 7600.00 -0.65 -50.00 279,180,500,000 DARMA HENWA 114.00 -0.87 -1.00 252,420,500

ASTRA INTERNATIO 71950.00 0.63 450.00 196,486,300,000 SENTUL CITY TBK 178.00 0.56 1.00 247,444,000

BANK RAKYAT INDO 6650.00 0.00 0.00 110,761,900,000 BAKRIE & BROTHER 69.00 1.47 1.00 190,943,000

PERUSAHAAN GAS N 3925.00 -1.26 -50.00 139,745,000,000 TRUBA ALAM ENG 62.00 1.64 1.00 87,767,500

INDOFOOD SUKSES 5950.00 0.85 50.00 25,452,660,000 POLYCHEM INDONES 920.00 2.22 20.00 45,733,500

BAKRIELAND DEV 167.00 3.09 5.00 154,869,500,000 LIPPO KARAWACI 740.00 7.25 50.00 206,247,500

POLYCHEM INDONES 920.00 2.22 20.00 42,151,130,000 ALAM SUTERA REAL 405.00 6.58 25.00 180,187,500

BANK DANAMON 5650.00 0.00 0.00 15,471,060,000 BAKRIE SUMATERA 430.00 0.00 0.00 49,056,000

BANK CENTRAL ASI 8000.00 0.00 0.00 52,904,140,000 ASIA PACIFIC 590.00 7.27 40.00 97,842,000


Sri Lanka


COMMERCIAL BK 258.00 0.39 1.00 4,896,180 EXPOLANKA HOLDIN 14.60 -2.67 -0.40 1,327,300

SOFTLOGIC HOLDIN 25.20 -3.08 -0.80 38,423,830 SOFTLOGIC HOLDIN 25.20 -3.08 -0.80 1,511,300

CEYLON TOBACCO 375.00 3.91 14.10 21,175,400 PANASIAN POWER L 4.40 0.00 0.00 4,384,000

JOHN KEELLS HLDG 202.60 0.30 0.60 187,677,800 EAST WEST PROPER 12.70 -0.78 -0.10 458,900

CITIZEN DEV BUS 81.00 0.75 0.60 1,141,040 AMANA TAKAFUL 2.20 0.00 0.00 1,039,400

EXPOLANKA HOLDIN 14.60 -2.67 -0.40 19,472,000 VALLIBEL ONE LTD 29.90 0.34 0.10 1,239,800

VALLIBEL ONE LTD 29.90 0.34 0.10 37,257,920 TOUCHWOOD INV PL 22.70 -1.73 -0.40 269,100

ORIENT GARMENTS 35.00 1.16 0.40 40,091,580 ORIENT GARMENTS 35.00 1.16 0.40 1,149,800

TOUCHWOOD INV PL 22.70 -1.73 -0.40 6,098,640 SMB LEASING PLC 2.30 0.00 0.00 1,034,000

NATION LANKA FIN 20.60 -2.37 -0.50 6,062,840 FREE LANKA CAPIT 3.80 -2.56 -0.10 2,437,000



11

Commodities & Currencies

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Currencies Price of FX to

S$ Price of FX to

US$

GOLD SPOT US$ / OZ -0.02 -0.28 1,600.50 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 0.7662 1.0750

SILVER SPOT US$ / OZ +0.01 +0.01 40.04 CANADIAN DOLLAR 0.7804 0.9474

WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Px +0.66 +0.64 98.14 EURO 0.5794 1.4215

BRITISH POUND 0.5098 1.6154 Source: Bloomberg

US DOLLAR 0.8237 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last CHINA RENMINBI 5.3200 6.4588

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard +0.74 +10.00 1368.25 HONG KONG DOLLAR 6.4193 7.7925

PALM OIL (RM$/METRIC TON) -0.50 -15.50 3101.00 JAPANESE YEN 64.8900 78.7800

Source: Bloomberg KOREAN WON 869.2036 1055.3000

Index % Chg Chg Last MALAYSIAN RINGGIT 2.4717 3.0005

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.01 +0.00 74.87 THAI BAHT 24.6189 29.8900


US Treasury Yields

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

6 Months 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.07

2 Years 0.38 0.37 0.35 0.37

3 Years 0.64 0.62 0.61 0.67

5 Years 1.47 1.43 1.44 1.53

10 Years 2.93 2.87 2.88 2.95

30 Years 4.25 4.19 4.17 4.20

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths) 2.93

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs) 2.55

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://www.valubond.com

Economic Announcement

US Singapore

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

7/21/11 Initial Jobless Claims 16-Jul 410K 405K 7/25/11 CPI (MOM) - NSA JUN -0.4% 0.6%

7/21/11 Continuing Claims 9-Jul 3710K 3727K 7/25/11 CPI (YoY) JUN 5.1% 4.5%

7/21/11 Bloomberg Economic Expectations

JUL - - -31 7/26/11 Industrial Production MoM SA

JUN 3.8% -3.8%

7/21/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

17-Jul - - -43.9 7/26/11 Industrial Production YoY JUN 10.0% -17.5%

7/21/11 House Price Index MoM MAY 0.1% 0.8% 7/29/11 Credit Card Bad Debts JUN - - 14.6M

7/21/11 Leading Indicators JUN 0.2% 0.8% 7/29/11 Credit Card Billings JUN - - 2959.8M

7/21/11 Philadelphia Fed. JUL 2.0 -7.7 7/29/11 Bank Loans & Advances (YoY)

JUN - - 24.2%

7/25/11 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index

JUN - - -0.37 7/29/11 M1 Money Supply (YoY) JUN - - 19.4%

7/25/11 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity

JUL - - -17.5 7/29/11 M2 Money Supply (YoY) JUN - - 10.8%

7/26/11 S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA

MAY - - -0.09%

7/29/11 Unemployment Rate (sa) 2Q p - - 1.9%



12

Thailand Hong Kong


20-25 JUL

Customs Exports (YoY) JUN 10.0% 17.6% 7/21/11 CPI - Composite Index (YoY)

JUN 5.6% 5.2%

20-25 JUL

Customs Imports (YoY) JUN 24.9% 33.8% 7/28/11 Exports YoY% JUN - - 10.1%

20-25 JUL

Customs Trade Balance JUN $325M $278M 7/28/11 Imports YoY% JUN - - 13.0%

18-22 JUL

Total Car Sales JUN - - 55851 7/28/11 Trade Balance JUN - - -35.7B

7/22/11 Forward Contracts 15-Jul - - $25.6B 7/29/11 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUN - - 11.4%

7/22/11 Foreign Reserves 15-Jul - - $184.2B 7/29/11 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$

JUN - - -7.9B

7/28/11 Total Capacity Utilization ISIC

JUN - - 58.7 7/31/11 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUN - - 12.5%

7/28/11 Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY)

JUN - - -3.88 7/31/11 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY)

JUN - - 11.5%

7/28/11 Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA)

JUN - - 181.32 8/1/11 Retail Sales - Value (YoY)

JUN - - 27.8%

7/29/11 Total Exports YOY% JUN - - 17.3% 8/1/11 Retail Sales - Volume (YoY)

JUN - - 21.6%

7/29/11 Total Exports in US$ Million

JUN - - $19284M 03-04 AUG

Purchasing Managers Index

JUL - - 50.3

7/29/11 Total Imports YOY% JUN - - 34.4% 8/12/11 GDP sa (QoQ) 2Q - - 2.8%

7/29/11 Total Imports in US$ Million

JUN - - $19010M 8/12/11 GDP (YoY) 2Q - - 7.2%

7/29/11 Total Trade Balance JUN - - $274M 8/18/11 Unemployment Rate SA JUL - - - -

7/29/11 Current Account Balance (USD)

JUN - - -$511M 19-22 AUG

Composite Interest Rate JUL - - - -



13

Indonesia Sri Lanka


8/1/11 Inflation (YoY) JUL - - 5.54% 25-29 JUL

Exports YoY% MAY - - 37.2%

8/1/11 Inflation NSA (MoM) JUL - - 0.55% 25-29 JUL

Imports YoY% MAY - - 53.7%

8/1/11 Core Inflation (YoY) JUL - - 4.63% 7/31/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

JUL - - 6.7%

8/1/11 Exports (YoY) JUN - - 45.3% 7/31/11 CPI (YoY) JUL - - 7.1%

8/1/11 Total Imports (YoY) JUN - - 48.5% 07-15 AUG

Exports YoY% JUN - - - -

8/1/11 Total Trade Balance JUN - - $3509M 07-15 AUG

Imports YoY% JUN - - - -

01-11 AUG

Consumer Confidence Index

JUL - - 109 8/19/11 Repurchase Rate 19-Aug - - 7.000%

02-10 AUG

Danareksa Consumer Confidence

JUL - - 91.8 8/19/11 Reverse Repo Rate 19-Aug - - 8.500%

03-09 AUG

Foreign Reserves JUL - - $119.66B 8/31/11 CPI Moving Average (YoY)

AUG - - - -

03-09 AUG

Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)

JUL - - 995.25T 8/31/11 CPI (YoY) AUG - - - -

08-12 AUG

GDP Constant Price (YoY)

2Q - - 6.46% 07-15 SEP

Exports YoY% JUL - - - -

08-12 AUG

GDP Constant Price (QoQ)

2Q - - 1.53% 07-15 SEP

Imports YoY% JUL - - - -

08-12 AUG

Money Supply - M1 (YoY) JUN - - 19.0% 15-25 SEP

GDP (YoY) 2Q - - 7.9%

08-12 AUG

Money Supply - M2 (YoY) JUN - - 15.5% 9/16/11 Repurchase Rate 16-Sep - - - -

8/9/11 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate

9-Aug - - 6.75% 9/16/11 Reverse Repo Rate 16-Sep - - - -


PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS

BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

SELL >15% downside from the current price

We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors

like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or

absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final

recommendation

GENERAL DISCLAIMER

This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this

publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below.

This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip

Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this

publication.

The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason

to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”)

contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not

verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research

is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this

publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or

Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip

Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of

the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date

indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice.

This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives,

financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable

for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the

suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of

that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.

This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent

verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a

recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is

suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in

this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into

transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent

determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein

with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.

Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to

purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any

registered prospectus in respect of such security.

Disclosure of Interest

Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as

an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report.

Firm’s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered

in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no

executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation.

Phillip Securities (HK)Phillip Securities (HK)Phillip Securities (HK)Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Ltd Ltd Ltd

2

Availability

The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or

entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the

applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement,

or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.

© 2011 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited

Phillip Capital – Regional Member Companies

SINGAPORE

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd

Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00

Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax : (65) 6535 6631

Website : www.poems.com.sg

MALAYSIA

Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd

B-2-6 Megan Avenue II 12 Jln Yap Kwan Seng 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel : (603) 2166 8099 Fax : (603) 2166 5099

Website : www.poems.com.my

HONG KONG

Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd

11-12/F United Centre 95 Queensway, Hong Kong

Tel : (852) 2277 6600 Fax : (852) 2868 5307

Website : www.poems.com.hk

THAILAND

Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co Ltd

15/F, Vorawat Building 849 Silom Road

Bangkok Thailand 10500 Tel : (622) 635 7100 Fax : (622) 635 1616

Website : www.poems.in.th

JAPAN

The Naruse Securities Co Ltd

4-2, Nihonbashi Kabutocho Chuo Ku, Tokyo Japan 103-0026

Tel : (81) 03-3666-2101 Fax : (81) 03-3664-0141

Website : www.naruse-sec.co.jp

UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd

6th Floor, Candlewick House

120 Cannon Street London EC4N 6AS

Tel : (44) 207 426 5950 Fax : (44) 207 626 1757

Website : www.kingandshaxson.com

15

persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this material, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this material. The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Section 27 of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore and the MAS Notice on Recommendations on Investment Products (FAA-N01) do not apply in respect of this publication. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. Please contact Phillip Securities Research at [65 65311240] in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. This report is only for the purpose of distribution in Singapore.

Contact Information

Singapore Research Chan Wai Chee CEO, Research Special Opportunities +65 6531-1232 [email protected]

Lee Kok Joo, CFA Head of Research S-chips, Strategy +65 6531-1685 [email protected]

Joshua Tan Strategy & Macro Singapore, US, China +65 6531-1249 [email protected]

Magdalene Choong Investment Analyst SG & US Financials, Gaming +65 6531-1791 [email protected]

Phua Ming-weii Technical and Market Analyst +65 6531-1735 [email protected]

Go Choon Koay Bryan Investment Analyst Property +65 6531-1792 [email protected]

Derrick Heng Investment Analyst Transportation +65 6531-1221 [email protected]

Nicholas Low, CFA Investment Analyst Offshore & Marine +65 6531-1535 [email protected]

Travis Seah Investment Analyst REITs +65 6531 1229 [email protected]

Regional Member Companies

SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax : (65) 6535 6631 Website: www.poems.com.sg

MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) 21628841 Fax (603) 21665099 Website: www.poems.com.my

HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 22776600 Fax (852) 28685307 Websites: www.phillip.com.hk

JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, 2-4-3 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0014 Tel (81-3) 35953631 Fax (81-3) 35953630 Website:www.phillip.co.jp

INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia Tel (62-21) 57900800 Fax (62-21) 57900809 Website: www.phillip.co.id

CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318, Postal code 200001 Tel (86-21) 51699200 Fax (86-21) 63512940 Website: www.phillip.com.cn

THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand Tel (66-2) 6351700 / 22680999 Fax (66-2) 22680921 Website www.phillip.co.th

FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France Tel (33-1) 45633100 Fax (33-1) 45636017 Website: www.kingandshaxson.com

UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-20) 7426 5950 Fax (44-20) 7626 1757 Website: www.kingandshaxson.com

UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel +1.312.356.9000 Fax +1.312.356.9005

AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) 96298380 Fax (613) 96148309 Website: www.phillipcapital.com.au

phillip securities research pte ltd 21 july 2011...

Documents