phd project plan: crowding-out or crowding-in?
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VU-GSSS PhD Evaluation Day, February 11, 2014TRANSCRIPT
Arjen de WitVU-GSSS PhD Evaluation Day
February 11, 2014
Mechanisms of crowding-out and crowding-in
How and when does government support affect private contributions?
Thanks to…
René Bekkers
Marjolein Broese van Groenou
Crowding-out
Lower government support, higher private contributions (giving and volunteering)
Previous studies are not conclusive
Estimated effects of a change in government support vary strongly between studies
What do economists say?
You have a preferred level of public good provision (PREF)
The government provides a certain level of the public good (GOV)
You provide what’s left (PRIV = PREF – GOV)
What do economists say?
You have a preferred level of public good provision (PREF)
The government provides a certain level of the public good (GOV)
You provide what’s left (PRIV = PREF – GOV)
‘Perfect crowding-out’
But there is more (1)
The need in society changes because of changes in government support
But there is more (2)
Non-profit organizations increasingly raise funds and recruit volunteers when receiving less subsidies
Subsidies change the reputation of non-profit organizations
But there is more (3)
Government support changes your awareness of the need
Government support changes resources like income and education
The model
Paper 1: A meta-analysis
Systematic review of previous studies
Paper 1: A meta-analysis
Systematic review of previous studies
First results in a minute!
Paper 1: A meta-analysis
Systematic review of previous studies
First results in a minute!
Paper 2: Dutch charities
Y = Giving to 15 charitable organizations
Tests mechanisms of solicitation, efficacy and awareness of need
Micro data: Giving in the Netherlands Panel Survey 2002-2012 (6 waves)
Meso data: Dutch Bureau on Fundraising (CBF)
Paper 3: Need or demand?
Y = Giving and volunteering in public/social sector
Tests mechanisms of need and resources
Micro data: Giving in the Netherlands Panel Survey 2002-2012 (6 waves)
Macro data: Statistics Netherlands (CBS)
Paper 4: Volunteering in Germany
Y = Volunteering in education and childcare
Tests mechanisms of need
Micro data: German Survey on Volunteering 1999-2014 (4 cross-sections, nested in 16 states)
Macro data: Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)
Paper 5: Field experiment
Y = Giving to cultural organizations
Tests conditions under which mechanism of need is stronger
Information vs. no information about giving law (‘Geefwet’)
Specific need (stage lights) vs. infinite need (the future of the theatre) to donate to
Meta-analysis
Meta-analysis
Systematic literature review
We collect effect sizes published in previous research
We seek to explain differences in effect sizes between studies by characteristics of samples and publications
Meta-analysis: collecting studies
Y = Amount of private donations
X = Government support
Retrieval in Web of Science through EndNote
Our search now extends back to 1990
We include only original empirical quantitative results
N = 259 in 47 studies
Our meta-analysis sample
Our meta-analysis sample
Books
Our meta-analysis sample
Dissertations
Books
Our meta-analysis sample
Dissertations
Theses
Books
Our meta-analysis sample
Dissertations
Not in Web of Science
Theses
Books
Our meta-analysis sample
Dissertations
Not in Web of Science
Not accepted
Theses
Books
Our meta-analysis sample
Dissertations
Not in Web of Science
Not accepted
Theses
Books
Not submitted
Our meta-analysis sample
Dissertations
Not in Web of Science
Not accepted
Theses
Books
Not submitted
Non-English
Crowding-out estimates
Mean crowding-out effect
Stronger crowding-out in lab experiments…
…in studies outside the USA…
…and in the public/social sector.
Discussion
Random sample?
Are we comparing apples and oranges?
‘Bad studies’ in the sample?
Multicollinearity
Between-study variance
Multilevel random-effects model on
crowding-out estimates (excl. outliers)
(Constant) -0.236
Between-study SD 0.38
Rho 0.58
No. of studies 35
Observations 191
Conclusions of meta-analysis (so far)
• On average, a $1 reduction in government support is associated with a $0.21 increase in private contributions.
• However, crowding-out estimates vary considerably from study to study.
• Differences in the methodology used to measure the influence of government contributions on private giving are driving these differences.
