pg.jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/res/cn_res/invest/2016/3/24/ca87284e-ff99-4627-9b1b... · abc 3...

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Disclaimer & Disclosures This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. MICA (P) 021/01/2016 MICA (P) 073/06/2015 Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Our visit to Malaysia indicates that most consumer companies remain cautious on the outlook for 2016 The instant coffee space is crowded and retailers are under pressure to offer more value Valuations remain rich at an average 20.8x 2016e P/E Cautious outlook: We have visited Malaysia on a number of occasions since the beginning of the year to meet various companies. Our key takeaways are that the outlook for consumer companies appears cautious. Most companies are not expecting improvements in 1Q16 given the high base effect in 1Q15. However, some companies expect an improvement might come as early as 2Q16. A case of having too many options: The Malaysian instant coffee market is a crowded space. The Ipoh white coffee sub-segment of the market is an example. Within this sub-segment alone, we counted 31 brands being offered by Malaysian retailers, including a total of 116 different products. And, we do not think that our survey was exhaustive. Our list of Malaysian instant white coffee products currently on the market is produced on Page 4. We think that some players will need to exit for the market to normalize. Chasing value: The retail space is generally a tough environment. Retailers are still seeing poor consumer appetite. As a result, most are not optimistic on the short-term outlook. At the same time, retailers also reported that consumers are ‘down-trading’. Hence, it is the retailers with a strong value proposition that are seeing growth in the current environment. Also, in the current weak environment, some retailers are seeing pockets of opportunity for rent negotiation. Landlords have started offering incentives by giving additional benefits to prevent tenants from leaving. Valuations remain rich: At an average 20.8x 2016e P/E, the Malaysian consumer sector is trading at a premium to the Malaysia index, which is trading at 18.1x P/E. We currently have no Buy ratings in the sector. Selected companies under coverage Name Bloomberg Ticker Ratings Price Target price Upside/ Downside AEON CO. (M) BHD. AEON Mk Hold MYR 2.65 MYR 2.82 6.4% PARKSON RETAIL ASIA LIMITED PRA SP Reduce SGD 0.157 SGD 0.12 -23.6% SUPER GROUP LTD. SUPER SP Hold SGD 1.015 SGD 0.92 -9.4% Source: HSBC 24 March 2016 Selviana Aripin*, CFA Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch [email protected] +65 6658 0610 Permada Darmono* Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch [email protected] +65 6658 0613 Erwan Rambourg* Global Co-Head Consumer & Retail Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited [email protected] +852 2996 6572 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Malaysia Consumer Rendezvous EQUITIES CONSUMER Malaysia A cautious outlook

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Page 1: pg.jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2016/3/24/ca87284e-ff99-4627-9b1b... · abc 3 EQUITIES CONSUMER 24 March 2016 Super Group (Super SP, Hold, SGD1.015, TP: SGD0.92)

Disclaimer & Disclosures This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. MICA (P) 021/01/2016 MICA (P) 073/06/2015

Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch

View HSBC Global Research at:

https://www.research.hsbc.com

Our visit to Malaysia indicates that most consumer companies

remain cautious on the outlook for 2016

The instant coffee space is crowded and retailers are underpressure to offer more value

Valuations remain rich at an average 20.8x 2016e P/E

Cautious outlook: We have visited Malaysia on a number of occasions since the

beginning of the year to meet various companies. Our key takeaways are that the

outlook for consumer companies appears cautious. Most companies are not

expecting improvements in 1Q16 given the high base effect in 1Q15. However, some

companies expect an improvement might come as early as 2Q16.

A case of having too many options: The Malaysian instant coffee market is a

crowded space. The Ipoh white coffee sub-segment of the market is an example.

Within this sub-segment alone, we counted 31 brands being offered by Malaysian

retailers, including a total of 116 different products. And, we do not think that our

survey was exhaustive. Our list of Malaysian instant white coffee products currently

on the market is produced on Page 4. We think that some players will need to exit for

the market to normalize.

Chasing value: The retail space is generally a tough environment. Retailers are still

seeing poor consumer appetite. As a result, most are not optimistic on the short-term

outlook. At the same time, retailers also reported that consumers are ‘down-trading’.

Hence, it is the retailers with a strong value proposition that are seeing growth in the

current environment. Also, in the current weak environment, some retailers are

seeing pockets of opportunity for rent negotiation. Landlords have started offering

incentives by giving additional benefits to prevent tenants from leaving.

Valuations remain rich: At an average 20.8x 2016e P/E, the Malaysian consumer

sector is trading at a premium to the Malaysia index, which is trading at 18.1x P/E.

We currently have no Buy ratings in the sector.

Selected companies under coverage

Name Bloomberg Ticker Ratings Price Target price Upside/ Downside

AEON CO. (M) BHD. AEON Mk Hold MYR 2.65 MYR 2.82 6.4%PARKSON RETAIL ASIA LIMITED PRA SP Reduce SGD 0.157 SGD 0.12 -23.6%SUPER GROUP LTD. SUPER SP Hold SGD 1.015 SGD 0.92 -9.4%Source: HSBC

24 March 2016

Selviana Aripin*, CFA Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch [email protected] +65 6658 0610

Permada Darmono* Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch [email protected] +65 6658 0613

Erwan Rambourg* Global Co-Head Consumer & Retail Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation [email protected] +852 2996 6572

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Malaysia Consumer Rendezvous

EQUITIES CONSUMER

Malaysia

A cautious outlook

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Malaysian consumer companies (pricing as at close of 23 March 2016)

Name Bloomberg Ticker Ratings Price Dividend

Yield TTM

Market Cap -

Consolidated (USDm)

P/E

TTM

P/E

FY2016

P/E

FY2017

EV/EBITDA

TTM

EV/EBITDA

FY2016

EV/EBITDA

FY2017

Net Debt/ Equity

FY2015

ROE

TTM

AEON CO. (M) BHD. AEON Mk Hold MYR 2.65 1.8% 867 27.9 25.2 25.7 9.6 9.4 9.5 0.3 7% BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (MALAYSIA) BERHAD ROTH MK Not rated MYR 55.30 5.6% 3,684 17.4 17.8 17.6 12.6 13.0 12.9 0.5 170% CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA BERHAD CAB MK Not rated MYR 13.96 5.3% 973 19.2 18.0 17.0 13.6 13.0 12.3 (0.0) 67% DUTCH LADY MILK INDUSTRIES BERHAD DLM MK Not rated MYR 50.42 2.2% 753 22.9 18.8 - 15.0 - - (1.0) 90% FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BHD. FNH MK Not rated MYR 19.76 2.9% 1,686 20.0 20.1 18.8 13.3 13.6 12.9 (0.1) 19% GUINNESS ANCHOR BERHAD GUIN MK Not rated MYR 13.98 5.1% 981 17.7 17.0 16.4 11.9 11.3 11.0 0.2 65% KAREX BERHAD KAREX MK Not rated MYR 3.70 0.7% 577 31.6 28.3 22.8 23.1 20.1 16.0 (0.3) 22% NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BHD NESZ MK Not rated MYR 75.48 3.2% 4,113 29.9 27.6 25.7 20.3 18.5 17.5 0.5 80% PARKSON RETAIL ASIA LIMITED PRA SP Reduce SGD 0.157 12.8% 74 183.5 12.7 31.2 NEG 0.8 2.1 (0.7) 0% PADINI HOLDINGS PAD MK Not rated MYR 2.06 5.0% 316 12.4 12.3 11.2 5.8 5.8 5.3 (0.6) 26% SHANGRI-LA HOTELS (MALAYSIA) BERHAD SHMB MK Not rated MYR 5.67 2.5% 600 19.8 - - 14.3 - - 0.0 13% SUPER GROUP LTD. SUPER SP Hold SGD 1.015 2.1% 810 24.3 21.0 19.7 11.7 10.3 9.5 (0.2) 9% Weighted average 3.8% 23.7 20.8 18.9 14.9 13.0 12.4 Source: Thomson Reuters, HSBC estimates for covered stocks. TTTM denotes Trailing Twelve Months

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EQUITIES CONSUMER

24 March 2016

Super Group (Super SP, Hold, SGD1.015, TP: SGD0.92)

We visited a modern retail outlet in Malaysia to assess the development of the hot beverage

space. We think that competition in the hot beverage space in Malaysia is intense. While

Super Group does not break out its revenue by country and product line, we estimate that

the company derives around 4% of its FY15 revenue from the hot beverage segment in

Malaysia. Within the coffee space, besides Super Group, players include Nestle Malaysia

(NESZ MK, MYR75.48, not rated), Power Root Malaysia (PWRT MK, MYR2.14, not rated),

and other privately owned companies, such as White Café, Sari Incofood, Aik Cheong

Coffee Roaster, Boncafe, UCC Ushima, and Gold Choice. When we expand the universe to

include other hot beverages (including tea and other categories of hot drinks), the direct

competitors include GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Sdn Bhd, which is part of

GlaxoSmithKline Plc (GSK LN, Buy, GBp 1,396.5, TP: GBp 1,800) and privately-owned

companies, such as Boh Plantations and Unilever Malaysia.

Market share of hot beverage players in Malaysia (%)

2006a 2007a 2008a 2009a 2010a 2011a 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015aNestlé SA 55.7 52.9 51.5 50.8 50.2 49.5 49.3 48.9 48.5 48.6GlaxoSmithKline Plc 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3White Café Sdn Bhd 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.9 7.4 7.7 8.1 7.7Boh Plantations Sdn Bhd 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3Power Root (M) Sdn Bhd 4.6 7.1 9.2 10.9 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.9Unilever Group 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2Sari Incofood Corp PT 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 3 3.1 3.2 3.3Super Group Ltd 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2Aik Cheong Coffee Roaster Sdn Bhd 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3Gold Choice Coffee Co 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3Associated British Foods Plc 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7UCC Ueshima Coffee Co Ltd/ UCC Holdings Co Ltd

1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Boncafé International Pte Ltd/ Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group SpA

0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3

Others 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.7 10.7Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Source: Euromonitor

The extent of the competition is visible across the supermarket shelves as customers are

offered a variety of choices. To illustrate how crowded the space is, we examined the white

coffee space (often called Ipoh white coffee), which is a popular sub-segment of the coffee

category. White coffee refers to coffee that is traditionally brewed from beans which are

roasted with margarine and often served with condensed milk. The instant version that is

sold in supermarkets today attempts to replicate that traditional favour. In a by-no-means-

exhaustive survey of Malaysian supermarkets, we counted 31 brands of instant white coffee

with a total of 116 different products (see the following two pages). We believe the myriad of

instant white coffee options available to consumers is indicative of how crowded the overall

coffee space has become.

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A look at the white coffee market in Malaysia

White coffee options available 1 Old Town Old Town 3-in-1 Classic White Coffee Mix2 Old Town 3-in-1 Hazelnut White Coffee Mix 3 Old Town 2-in-1 Coffee and Creamer White Coffee Mix 4 Old Town Nanyang 2-in-1 White Coffee O5 Old Town Nanyang White Coffee O (No Added Sugar) 6 Old Town 3-in-1 Ice Cold White Coffee 7 Old Town 3-in-1 Less Sugar8 Old Town 3-in-1 Natural Cane Sugar White Coffee 9 Super Super Charcoal Roasted White Coffee10 Super 3-in-1 Charcoal Roasted White Coffee with Brown Sugar 11 Super 2-in-1 Charcoal Roasted White Coffee (No Sugar added) 12 Super 3-in-1 Charcoal Roasted Hazelnut White Coffee 13 Super 3-in-1 Charcoal Roasted White Coffee Classic 14 Nescafe Nescafe Menu 3-in-1 Ipoh White Coffee15 Nescafe Menu Ipoh 4-in-1 White Coffee Hazelnut Flavour 16 Nescafe Menu Brown Sugar Flavour Ipoh White Coffee 17 Nescafe Ipoh White Original Coffee18 Nescafe Ipoh Brown Sugar Coffee19 Nescafe Ipoh Hazelnut Coffee20 Owl Owl Original 3-in-1 White Coffee Tarik21 Owl Hazelnut 3-in-1 White Coffee Tarik22 Owl Nanyang 2-in-1 White Coffee (No Sugar Added) 23 Owl Nanyang 3-in-1 White Coffee 24 Owl Nanyang 3-in-1 White Coffee with Gula Melaka 25 Indocafe Indocafe White Coffee26 BKC BKC Nanyang White Coffee 2-in-1 Cappuccino 27 Koon Kee Koon Kee Premium Durian White Coffee28 Koon Kee Coconut Flavour White Coffee29 Koon Kee Original Flavour White Coffee30 Koon Kee Lingzhi White Coffee31 Koon Kee Tongkat Ali White Coffee32 Koon Kee Soluble Fibre Added White Coffee 33 Koon Kee Mocha Flavour White Coffee34 Koon Kee Vanilla Flavour White Coffee35 Koon Kee Sugar Free White Coffee36 Koon Kee Low Sugar White Coffee37 Koon Kee Reduced Sugar White Coffee38 Nanyang Essence Nanyang Essense Super Rich White Coffee 39 Nanyang Essense Nanyang Coffee40 Nanyang Essense Charcoal Roasted Coffee 41 Ah Huat Ah Huat 3-in-1 Classic White Coffee42 Ah Huat 3-in-1 Extra Rich White Coffee43 Ah Huat 3-in-1 Low Fat White Coffee44 Ah Huat 2-in-1 Low Fat White Coffee (No Sugar Added) 45 Ah Huat 3-in-1 Gold Medal White Coffee 46 Ah Huat 4-in-1 Hazelnut & Cane Sugar White Coffee 47 Aik Cheong Aik Cheong 3-in-1 White Coffee tarik48 Alicafe Alicafe 3-in-1 White Coffee49 Apache Apache 3-in-1 Black and White Coffee50 Apache 3-in-1 Green and White Coffee51 Apache 3-in-1 White Coffee52 Cafe99 Cafe99 2-in-1 White Coffee (No Sugar)53 Cafe99 3-in-1 Hazelnut White Coffee54 Cafe99 3-in-1 White Coffee (Less Sweet)55 Cafe99 Original 3-in-1 White Coffee 56 Chek Hup Chek Hup 2-in-1 Ipoh White Coffee (Coffee & Creamer) 57 Chek Hup 3-in-1 Ipoh White Coffee King58 Chek Hup 3-in-1 Original White Coffee 59 Chek Hup 3-in-1 Ipoh White Coffee - Less Sweet 60 Combywide Combywide 3-in-1 White Coffee Mild61 Combywide 3-in-1 White Coffee Rich62 Combywide 3-in-1 White Coffee Smooth63 Combywide Charcoal Roasted White Coffee Rich 64 Combywide Mocha White Coffee 65 Combywide Sugar Cane White Coffee Smooth 66 Combywide White Coffee Smooth67 Combywide White Coffee Ginseng68 DEBES DEBES White Coffee69 Eight Kingdom Eight Kingdom Penang Original Durian White Coffee

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EQUITIES CONSUMER

24 March 2016

A look at the white coffee market in Malaysia

White coffee options available 70 De Blenz De Blenz 2-in-1 White Coffee (No Sugar Added) 71 De Blenz 3-in-1 White Coffee72 Fruits Coffee Café Fruits Coffee Café 3-in-1 Classic Ipoh White Coffee 73 Fruits Coffee Café 4-in-1 Blackcurrant White Coffee 74 Fruits Coffee Café 4-in-1 Coconut White Coffee 75 Fruits Coffee Café 4-in-1 Durian White Coffee 76 Fruits Coffee Café 4-in-1 Orange White Coffee 77 Fruits Coffee Café 4-in-1 Strawberry White Coffee 78 Gold Choice Gold Choice Cappucino White Coffee79 Gold Choice Jinbao 3-in-1 White Coffee80 Gold Roast Gold Roast 2-in-1 White Coffee (No Sugar Added) 81 Gold Roast 3-in-1 White Coffee 82 Hei Hwang Hei Hwang 2-in-1 White Coffee (No Sugar Added) 83 Hei Hwang 3-in-1 White Coffee84 Hei Hwang White Coffee Cappucino85 Home's Café Home's Café 3-in-1 Original White Coffee86 Home's Café 2-in-1 White Coffee (No Sugar Added) 87 Home's Café 3-in-1 Hazelnut White Coffee88 Home's Café 3-in-1 Light Sugar White Coffee 89 Home's Café 3-in-1 Orange White Coffee90 In Comix In Comix 3-in-1 White Coffee91 King Street King Street Hazelnut White Coffee92 King Street Original White Coffee93 King Street Original White Coffee (No Sugar) 94 Malco Malco 2-in-1 Sugar Free White Coffee95 Malco 2-in-1 White Coffee & Skim Milk Powder 96 Malco 3-in-1 Cappuccino White Coffee97 Malco 3-in-1 Durian White Coffee98 Malco 3-in-1 Green Tea White Coffee99 Malco 3-in-1 Hazelnut White Coffee100 Malco 3-in-1 Ipoh Original White Coffee101 Malco 3-in-1 Latte White Coffee102 Malco 3-in-1 Mocha White Coffee103 Malco 3-in-1 White Coffee King104 Meet U Meet U 2-in-1 White Coffee (No Sugar Added) 105 Meet U 3-in-1 White Coffee Tarik106 Meet U 4-in-1 Black White Coffee107 Meet U 4-in-1 Gold White Coffee108 Meet U 4-in-1 White Coffee Tongkat Ali Ginseng 109 My Cofe My Cofe 2-in-1 Ipoh White Coffee110 My Cofe 3-in-1 Ipoh White Coffee111 Origin Origin 3-in-1 White Coffee Original112 Origin Latte White Coffee113 Origin Mocha White Coffee114 Origin Nanyang White Coffee O115 Salute Salute Penang Cappuccino White Coffee116 Sin Sing Sin Sing 3-in-1 Cappuccino White CoffeeSource: Various sources, HSBC

As part of the product rebranding in Malaysia, Super Group identified gaps in the Malaysian

market, by tweaking the profile of celebrities it uses for endorsement and highlighting the

fact that its products are Halal-certified.

Valuations and risks

Our DCF-based target price of SGD0.92 implies 24.2x 2016e PE and 18.4x 2016e EV/EBITDA.

This is roughly in line with its historical average valuation and is at a discount relative to its

peers. Our key DCF assumptions include: 4.2% FCF CAGR 2016e-2025e, cost of equity of

8.6% (which is the weighted cost of equity of the various countries where Super Group

operates), 8.6% WACC (Super Group is net cash) and 2.5% terminal growth rate. With a

downside of 9.4% we maintain our Hold rating.

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Upside risks: faster-than-expected recovery in Super Group’s key markets, higher-than-

expected penetration in East Asia, successful launch of new products, and decline in

commodity prices having a more favourable impact on margins than originally expected.

Downside risks: unfavourable sales mix (if Food Ingredients grows significantly faster than

Branded Consumer), unfavourable currency movement, a slower materialization of the

rebranding programme than we forecast, and weaker-than-expected economic growth in Asia.

Parkson Retail Asia (PRA SP, Reduce, SGD0.157, TP: SGD 0.12)

The main operations in Malaysia have not done well so far. Same store sales growth came

to -11.2% in 1H FY16 ended June (vs -5.6% in the same period a year earlier). Strategies

to attract footfall include an F&B partnership, an ‘edutainment’ park, and operating a

supermarket. At the same time, Parkson is building up its range of private labels and

agency lines as part of its store revamp strategy.

We perceive that general sentiment among consumers has not improved. The cost of living

is widely perceived to have increased since the end of 2015, including an increase in toll

rates in Klang Valley (by 18% to 100%, depending on which route) and the excise tax hike

(by around 40%).

Leases in Malaysia are generally long at between 15 to 20 years but the lease contract is

renewed every three years. As most contracts come with an exit clause, it is generally

considered easy to exit contracts, if there is a need to.

Indonesian market stands out versus other geographies given its robust same store sales

growth of +5.5% 1H FY16 ended June (vs +7.3% in the same period a year earlier). In

Indonesia, Parkson operates under two brands, Centro department store and Parkson.

While Centro is targeted at the middle-income segment and is comparable to Matahari

Department Store (LPPF IJ, Buy, IDR18,100) in its market positioning, Parkson is targeted

at the middle-to-high-end segment of the population. Leases in Indonesia are generally

longer, at 10 plus 10 years, with a fixed rental increase. The leasing agreement usually

does not allow for an easy exit.

Valuations and risks

Given the negative sentiment surrounding the Malaysian consumer discretionary sector,

uncertainty over Parkson’s turnaround plan and heightened corporate governance concerns, we

believe that Parkson should be valued based on its ‘floor value’ and value the company based

on liquidation value. We estimate Parkson’s liquidation value – assuming PRA is not given

sufficient time to sell its assets in the open market – at SGD0.12. Our target price is set at

SGD0.12 as we see potential for the shares to sell down to this level amid weak sentiment. With

a downside of 23.6% we maintain our Reduce rating.

Upside risks: (1) better-than-expected performance in Malaysia and Vietnam: the turnaround of

its operations in Malaysia, where PRA derives most of its revenue, and Vietnam, where PRA

has performed poorly in recent years, could renew investors’ interest in PRA; (2) take-out offer

for PRA’s shares: a take-out offer is one possible remedy for correcting the violation of SGX

rule regarding a minimum trading price of SGD 20 cents; (3) special dividends payment: a

special dividends payment is a signal that PRA is doing well and that management is confident

of the future ; (4) significant insider buying: this would likely to be interpreted as a positive signal

by investors.

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EQUITIES CONSUMER

24 March 2016

AEON Co Malaysia Bhd (AEON MK, MYR2.65, Hold, TP: MYR2.82)

AEON is a leading retailer in Malaysia and operates a dual business model consisting of retail

and property management. AEON’s same store sales growth for FY15 was down 2% and for

4Q15 was down 4%. Across the various product types, food and beverage tenants are doing

well while the sales of electrical products and fashion-related items are generally soft.

Management appears cautious on the outlook for 2016. Even though the results in early

2016 gave some comfort, management does not think that appetite for spending does not

appear to have returned. In particular, AEON does not expect a recovery in 1Q16 given the

high base effect from 1Q15 as a result of aggressive buying prior to the introduction of GST

in 1 April 2015.

AEON’s business model has been to build new malls, set itself up as an anchor tenant and

lease the other spaces. Management says it does not have any plan to turn the company

into a property management company.

Given AEON’s business model of catering to local families, AEON is unlikely to benefit from

the loosening of visa requirements for tourists from mainland China. For reference, the

Malaysian government previously announced visa-free entry from 1 March to 31 December

2016 for Chinese tourists traveling to Malaysia for a period of up to 15 days. In addition,

Malaysia also launched the e-Visa programme, which allows Chinese tourists to travel and

visit relatives and friends for a period of up to 30 days on a single-entry basis. There are

plans to roll out the Malaysian e-Visa programme to other countries such as India,

Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

On the popularity of fast fashion, with brands such as H&M and Uniqlo, AEON does not see

these major houses as a threat given the different market segments. AEON sees its main

market as the middle-income family segment, while fast fashion largely caters to teenagers.

On strategic decisions, AEON’s management follows concepts from and consults the head

office in Japan. Given the current subdued environment, management is looking to push

back some of the planned capital expenditure that have not been contracted for, even

though most of them will be in 2018.

Occupancy rate for FY December 2015 was 91% down from 94% in FY December 2014.

Historically, the occupancy rate has hovered around 94-95% level in the last few years.

Some tenants have expressed an interest in moving away. To put these numbers into

context, average occupancy was 95% in 2009 when the Malaysian consumer sentiments

dipped significantly. The occupancy rate was less of an issue in 2008-2009 because (1)

AEON had fewer properties in 2009; and (2) Malaysia recovered quickly enough in 2009

that tenants that were locked in for 2-3 years did not leave.

To retain tenants, AEON has the following tools at its disposal: lowering fixed rent and

charging a higher variable component based on sales generated, charging commission

sales, and offering the use of centre court free-of-charge (for tenants to put up banners and

promotional materials, and set up stands).

Valuations and risks

We value AEON on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) basis using DCF for its retail arm and NAV for

its property arm. Our DCF assumptions include 7.5% cost of equity, 5.7% cost of debt, WACC

of 6.8%, terminal growth rate of 2.5%. Our NAV assumptions include 6.75% Malaysian property

sector yield. Our TP of MYR2.82 implies an upside of 6.4%. We maintain our Hold rating as.

Management guides for capital expenditure of MYR600m in FY16e and MYR550m in FY17e,

versus our forecast of MYR622m in FY16e and MYR576m in FY17e.

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EQUITIES CONSUMER

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Upside risks: improvement in Malaysia’s economic outlook and industry consolidation.

Downside risks: continued Ringgit weaknesses and political uncertainty resulting in poor

consumer confidence and a bleak economic outlook.

Padini Holdings (PAD MK, MYR2.06, not rated)

Padini is engaged in textile and garment industry in Malaysia. Padini operates speciality

store selling ladies’ shoes and accessories as well as brands outlets.

Padini has started adopted a new pricing system. Padini’s core brands stores recently

started price-bundled promotions (for example, buy one and get the second one for 50%

off) on its core brands. Previously, the strategy was only adopted by its multi-brands outlets.

The company has received a positive response to the new pricing strategy. As a result,

Padini was optimistic about its prospects for FY June 2016.

Padini is pessimistic on the outlook for FY June 2017. Padini expects the depreciation of

the MYR against the CNY – the currency in which most of its inventory supplies are sourced

– to result in some margin compression for the year. Even though MYR recently

strengthened against the CNY, management regards the long-term trend of CNY

appreciation against MYR as a potential risk for Padini.

Over the longer term, Padini is looking to close down consignment outlets in department

store and open new standalone concept stores. Padini believes that there is a sufficient

number of attractive shopping malls to enable it to pursue its speciality store concept. Aside

from outlets at the well-located SOGO, Padini believes it can replace department store

outlets that it plans on closing down with standalone stores. This appears to be part of long-

term trend of brand owners moving out of department stores into standalone stores. If the

momentum picks up, this development is potentially negative for Malaysian department

stores such as AEON and Parkson Retail Asia. Between the two department store

operators, we think that this trend will hurt Parkson more than it will AEON. This is because

Parkson’s stores are largely located near or around the city centre where an alternative real

estate can be obtained. In contrast, AEON’s stores are typically located away from the city

centre and cater to the local community.

Despite the Malaysian Price Control and Anti-Profiteering Act ending on 30 June 2016,

Padini does not expect to immediately raise prices. Padini emphasizes customer

engagement and maintaining customer loyalty.

British American Tobacco Malaysia (ROTH MK, MYR55.30, not rated)

British American Tobacco Malaysia (BAT Malaysia) is the leading tobacco company in

Malaysia, controlling over 60% of the legal tobacco market. The other significant players in

Malaysia include Japan Tobacco International Malaysia, which is part of Japan Tobacco

Inc. (2914 TO, JPY 4,745, Not rated) and Philip Morris Malaysia, which is part of Philip

Morris International (PM US, USD 96.74, Not rated). BAT Malaysia sells under various

brands including Dunhill, Peter Stuyvesant and Pall Mall.

Management believes that the weak domestic volume is driven by the illicit market and

weak consumption appetite. In addition, it believes the 40% increase in the excise tax rate

in November 2015 dampened demand and drove smokers to the illicit market.

Tobacco leaves are sourced from the global BAT pool including British American

Tobacco GLP.

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On management change, BAT Malaysia has had a number of finance heads in the past

decade, including Robert James Clark, Stephen James Rush, Andreas Michael Thompson,

and currently Pablo Sconfianza. The internal arrangement with head office is that each

finance director would spend not less than three years of their time in the role.

On the excise tax hike, management sees the excise tax hike as an attempt by the government

to use all possible means to make up the budget shortfall. On the issue of plain packaging,

management thinks that it is unlikely to materialize in Malaysia over the short term.

On the rise of vaping, management bemoans the fact that there is no existing regulation on

the sale of e-cigarettes. Short of a complete ban of e-cigarettes, the existence of legislation

may be a good development for BAT Malaysia because it sets the framework on what is

allowable and what is not allowed.

Capex guidance from management for 2016/ 2017 is around MYR25-40m.

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Financials & valuation: Super Group Ltd Hold Financial statements Year to 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e

Profit & loss summary (SGDm)

Revenue 509 550 576 588EBITDA 88 100 105 106Depreciation & amortisation -25 -26 -27 -28Operating profit/EBIT 63 74 78 78Net interest 2 2 3 4PBT 65 76 81 83HSBC PBT 65 76 81 83Taxation -16 -19 -20 -21Net profit 47 55 58 60HSBC net profit 47 55 58 60Cash flow summary (SGDm)

Cash flow from operations 0 67 80 87Capex -18 -18 -18 -18Cash flow from investment -16 -13 -19 -19Dividends -35 -24 -27 -29Change in net debt -15 -28 -32 -36FCF equity 43 49 61 69Balance sheet summary (SGDm)

Intangible fixed assets 3 3 3 3Tangible fixed assets 274 261 252 242Current assets 374 420 458 493Cash & others 124 151 176 206Total assets 665 694 723 749Operating liabilities 92 93 98 100Gross debt 27 26 20 13Net debt -97 -125 -157 -193Shareholders' funds 522 541 572 602Invested capital 435 440 439 432

Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e

Y-o-y % change

Revenue -5.6 8.1 4.7 2.0EBITDA -10.0 13.3 5.1 1.0Operating profit -21.8 16.8 5.4 0.0PBT -19.7 16.0 6.7 2.2HSBC EPS -31.3 15.5 6.7 2.2Ratios (%)

Revenue/IC (x) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3ROIC 11.0 12.7 13.3 13.4ROE 9.3 10.3 10.5 10.1ROA 7.6 8.5 8.6 8.5EBITDA margin 17.4 18.2 18.3 18.1Operating profit margin 12.5 13.5 13.6 13.3EBITDA/net interest (x) Net debt/equity -17.9 -22.3 -26.6 -31.2Net debt/EBITDA (x) -1.1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8CF from operations/net debt Per share data (SGD)

EPS Rep (diluted) 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05HSBC EPS (diluted) 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05DPS 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03Book value 0.47 0.49 0.51 0.54

Key forecast drivers Year to 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e

Branded Consumers sales growth -3.48 5.38 5.58 2.00Food Ingredients sales growth -9.56 13.47 3.08 2.03EBITDA growth -0.01 12.97 4.81 0.68Core earnings Growth -21.52 15.06 6.32 1.71

Valuation data Year to 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e

EV/sales 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6EV/EBITDA 11.7 10.1 9.3 8.8EV/IC 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2PE* 23.8 20.6 19.3 18.9PB 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9FCF yield (%) 3.8 4.3 5.4 6.1Dividend yield (%) 3.1 2.1 2.4 2.6

* Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)

Issuer information Share price (SGD) 1.01 Free float 40%Target price (SGD) 0.92 Sector Food ProductsReuters (Equity) SPGP.SI Country SingaporeBloomberg (Equity) SUPER SP Analyst Selviana AripinMarket cap (USDm) 827 Contact +65 6658 0610

Price relative

Source: HSBC

Note: Priced at close of 23 Mar 2016

0.510.710.911.111.311.511.711.912.11

0.510.710.911.111.311.511.711.912.11

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16Super Group Ltd Rel to STRAITS TIMES INDEX

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Financials & valuation: Parkson Retail Asia Reduce Financial statements Year to 06/2015a 06/2016e 06/2017e 06/2018e

Profit & loss summary (SGDm)

Revenue 445 394 389 400EBITDA -20 34 25 42Depreciation & amortisation -20 -17 -17 -18Operating profit/EBIT -40 16 8 24Net interest -1 -2 -3 -3PBT -41 60 5 21HSBC PBT -41 14 5 21Taxation -12 -4 -1 -6Net profit -35 54 3 14HSBC net profit -35 8 3 14Cash flow summary (SGDm)

Cash flow from operations -27 -5 14 32Capex -32 -59 -43 -28Cash flow from investment 4 -59 -43 -28Dividends -44 -14 -14 -6Change in net debt 13 79 27 -5FCF equity -64 -64 -29 4Balance sheet summary (SGDm)

Intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0Tangible fixed assets 105 147 172 155Current assets 226 209 194 200Cash & others 139 99 85 88Total assets 374 391 400 386Operating liabilities 244 240 241 257Gross debt 1 40 54 52Net debt -138 -58 -31 -36Shareholders' funds 130 171 161 169Invested capital -51 17 40 10

Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to 06/2015a 06/2016e 06/2017e 06/2018e

Y-o-y % change

Revenue -0.3 -11.3 -1.5 2.9EBITDA -129.3 -24.7 66.3Operating profit -186.4 -49.6 199.3PBT -187.3 -91.7 325.7HSBC EPS -201.3 -59.2 325.8Ratios (%)

Revenue/IC (x) -23.9 -23.0 13.6 15.9ROIC 279.6 161.4 20.0 67.9ROE -18.8 5.5 2.0 8.8ROA -10.8 16.5 2.2 5.1EBITDA margin -4.4 8.5 6.5 10.5Operating profit margin -9.0 4.1 2.1 6.1EBITDA/net interest (x) 17.9 8.0 13.3Net debt/equity -123.0 -38.6 -22.4 -24.9Net debt/EBITDA (x) 7.1 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9CF from operations/net debt Per share data (SGD)

EPS Rep (diluted) -0.05 0.08 0.00 0.02HSBC EPS (diluted) -0.05 0.01 0.00 0.02DPS 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.01Book value 0.19 0.25 0.24 0.25

Key forecast drivers Year to 06/2015a 06/2016e 06/2017e 06/2018e

Malaysia revenue 322 280 266 266Vietnam revenue 45 44 44 46Indonesia revenue 59 67 75 84Cambodia revenue 0 1 1 1Myanmar revenue 2 2 2 3

Valuation data Year to 06/2015a 06/2016e 06/2017e 06/2018e

EV/sales -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2EV/EBITDA 0.9 2.2 1.7EV/IC 1.8 1.4 7.3PE* 13.1 32.0 7.5PB 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6FCF yield (%) -71.0 -72.7 -32.9 3.4Dividend yield (%) 37.5 12.5 12.5 6.0

* Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)

Issuer information Share price (SGD) 0.16 Free float 25%Target price (SGD) 0.12 Sector Multiline RetailReuters (Equity) PRAL.SI Country MalaysiaBloomberg (Equity) PRA SP Analyst Selviana AripinMarket cap (USDm) 80 Contact +65 6658 0610

Price relative

Source: HSBC

Note: Priced at close of 23 Mar 2016

0.05

0.25

0.45

0.65

0.85

1.05

0.05

0.25

0.45

0.65

0.85

1.05

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16Parkson Retail Asia Rel to KLSE COMPOSITE INDEX

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Financials & valuation: AEON Co Bhd Hold Financial statements Year to 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e

Profit & loss summary (MYRm)

Revenue 3,835 4,060 4,208 4,362EBITDA 360 470 498 529Depreciation & amortisation -204 -211 -228 -238Operating profit/EBIT 156 259 270 291Net interest -16 -45 -61 -71PBT 140 214 210 220HSBC PBT 140 214 210 220Taxation -79 -66 -65 -68Net profit 60 148 145 152HSBC net profit 133 148 145 152Cash flow summary (MYRm)

Cash flow from operations 360 470 498 529Capex -598 -622 -576 -349Cash flow from investment -594 -627 -577 -348Dividends -70 -56 -62 -61Change in net debt 496 175 291 31FCF equity -333 -264 -204 41Balance sheet summary (MYRm)

Intangible fixed assets 18 0 0 0Tangible fixed assets 3,032 3,423 3,772 3,883Current assets 948 1,031 1,115 1,185Cash & others 214 219 236 249Total assets 4,042 4,500 4,933 5,113Operating liabilities 1,570 1,645 1,690 1,736Gross debt 770 950 1,257 1,301Net debt 556 731 1,021 1,052Shareholders' funds 1,834 1,878 1,959 2,049Invested capital 2,215 2,591 2,962 3,083

Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e

Y-o-y % change

Revenue 3.5 5.9 3.6 3.7EBITDA -26.1 30.5 6.0 6.2Operating profit -48.6 66.2 4.3 7.6PBT -53.8 53.3 -2.0 5.1HSBC EPS -37.3 10.6 -2.0 5.1Ratios (%)

Revenue/IC (x) 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4ROIC 3.6 7.4 6.7 6.6ROE 7.4 8.0 7.5 7.6ROA 1.8 4.2 4.0 4.0EBITDA margin 9.4 11.6 11.8 12.1Operating profit margin 4.1 6.4 6.4 6.7EBITDA/net interest (x) 21.9 10.4 8.2 7.5Net debt/equity 30.1 38.7 51.8 51.1Net debt/EBITDA (x) 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.0CF from operations/net debt 64.7 64.3 48.8 50.3Per share data (MYR)

EPS Rep (diluted) 0.04 0.11 0.10 0.11HSBC EPS (diluted) 0.10 0.11 0.10 0.11DPS 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04Book value 1.31 1.34 1.40 1.46

Key forecast drivers Year to 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e

Retailing sales growth 3 6 3 3Retailing operating margin 2 2 3 3Property Management services 33 35 37 37

Valuation data Year to 12/2015a 12/2016e 12/2017e 12/2018e

EV/sales 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1EV/EBITDA 11.8 9.4 9.4 9.0EV/IC 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5PE* 27.9 25.2 25.7 24.5PB 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8FCF yield (%) -9.0 -7.2 -5.5 1.1Dividend yield (%) 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.6

* Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)

Issuer information Share price (MYR) 2.65 Free float 45%Target price (MYR) 2.82 Sector Multiline RetailReuters (Equity) AEOM.KL Country MalaysiaBloomberg (Equity) AEON MK Analyst Selviana AripinMarket cap (USDm) 929 Contact +65 6658 0610

Price relative

Source: HSBC

Note: Priced at close of 23 Mar 2016

2.20

2.70

3.20

3.70

4.20

2.20

2.70

3.20

3.70

4.20

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16AEON Co Bhd Rel to KLSE COMPOSITE INDEX

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Disclosure appendix

Analyst Certification

The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the

opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their

personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific

recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Selviana Aripin, Permada Darmono and Erwan Rambourg

Important disclosures

Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis

HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's

existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons

when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice. Different

securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations and

therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. Further, investors should

carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating because research reports contain more

complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating.

From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis:

The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take six to 12

months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stock will

be classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy or a

Hold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it is

between 5% and 20% below the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Hold or a Reduce; and when it is more

than 20% below the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Reduce.

Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage,

change in target price or estimates).

Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price.

Prior to this date, HSBC’s rating structure was applied on the following basis:

For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stock’s domestic or, as appropriate,

regional market established by our strategy team. The target price for a stock represented the value the analyst expected the

stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon was 12 months. For a stock to be classified as

Overweight, the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price,

including the forecast dividend yield when indicated, had to exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the

succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight,

the stock was expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or

10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands were classified as Neutral.

*A stock was classified as volatile if its historical volatility had exceeded 40%, if the stock had been listed for less than 12

months (unless it was in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expected significant volatility. However,

stocks which we did not consider volatile may in fact also have behaved in such a way. Historical volatility was defined as the

past month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating,

however, volatility had to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.

As of 24 March 2016, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows: Buy 46% (27% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Hold 40% (28% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Sell 14% (19% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

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For the purposes of the distribution above the following mapping structure is used during the transition from the previous to

current rating models: under our previous model, Overweight = Buy, Neutral = Hold and Underweight = Sell; under our current

model Buy = Buy, Hold = Hold and Reduce = Sell. For rating definitions under both models, please see “Stock ratings and basis

for financial analysis” above.

Share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunities

Super Group Ltd (SPGP.SI) share price performance

SGD Vs HSBC rating history

Rating & target price history

From To Date

N/A Buy 08 April 2015 Buy Hold 09 June 2015 Target price Value Date

Price 1 1.73 08 April 2015 Price 2 1.36 09 June 2015 Price 3 0.95 23 September 2015 Price 4 0.95 24 November 2015 Price 5 0.70 21 January 2016 Price 6 0.75 24 February 2016 Price 7 0.92 14 March 2016 Source: HSBC

Source: HSBC Parkson Retail Asia (PRAL.SI) share price performance

SGD Vs HSBC rating history

Rating & target price history

From To Date

Overweight Neutral 08 April 2013 Neutral Overweight 28 August 2013 Overweight Neutral 08 January 2015 Neutral Buy 28 April 2015 Buy Restricted 13 August 2015 Restricted Buy 02 November 2015 Buy Hold 20 November 2015 Hold Reduce 22 February 2016 Target price Value Date

Price 1 1.78 08 April 2013 Price 2 1.65 14 May 2013 Price 3 1.60 28 August 2013 Price 4 1.36 16 February 2014 Price 5 1.10 20 May 2014 Price 6 1.12 25 August 2014 Price 7 1.08 16 November 2014 Price 8 0.79 08 January 2015 Price 9 0.88 27 May 2015 Price 10 Restricted 13 August 2015 Price 11 0.88 02 November 2015 Price 12 0.30 19 November 2015 Price 13 0.21 04 February 2016 Price 14 0.12 22 February 2016 Source: HSBC

Source: HSBC

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

2

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

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AEON Co Bhd (AEOM.KL) share price performance MYR

Vs HSBC rating history

Rating & target price history

From To Date

N/A Underweight 01 April 2014 Underweight Neutral 05 January 2015 Neutral Hold 28 April 2015 Target price Value Date

Price 1 3.19 01 April 2014 Price 2 3.20 19 June 2014 Price 3 3.35 13 October 2014 Price 4 3.33 23 November 2014 Price 5 3.33 05 January 2015 Price 6 3.39 26 February 2015 Price 7 3.39 28 April 2015 Price 8 3.46 05 June 2015 Price 9 3.11 30 November 2015 Price 10 2.73 02 February 2016 Price 11 2.82 26 February 2016 Source: HSBC

Source: HSBC

HSBC & Analyst disclosures

Disclosure checklist

Company Ticker Recent price Price date Disclosure

PARKSON RETAIL ASIA PRAL.SI 0.16 23-Mar-2016 5

SUPER GROUP LTD SPGP.SI 1.02 23-Mar-2016 7

Source: HSBC

1 HSBC has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months.

2 HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months.

3 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this company.

4 As of 29 February 2016 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company.

5 As of 31 January 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services.

6 As of 31 January 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking securities-related services.

7 As of 31 January 2016, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services.

8 A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months.

9 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as detailed below.

10 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this company, as detailed below.

11 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-US Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in securities in respect of this company

HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments, both equity and debt

(including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis.

Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment

banking, sales & trading, and principal trading revenues.

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

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Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance.

Economic sanctions imposed by the EU and OFAC prohibit transacting or dealing in new debt or equity of Russian SSI entities.

This report does not constitute advice in relation to any securities issued by Russian SSI entities on or after July 16 2014 and as

such, this report should not be construed as an inducement to transact in any sanctioned securities.

For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that

company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research.

Additional disclosures

1 This report is dated as at 23 March 2016.

2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 22 March 2016, unless otherwise indicated in the report.

3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its

Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research

operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier

procedures are in place between the Investment Banking, Principal Trading, and Research businesses to ensure that any

confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.

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Disclaimer

Legal entities as at 30 May 2014

‘UAE’ HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; ‘HK’ The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Hong

Kong; ‘TW’ HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; 'CA' HSBC Bank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch;

HSBC France; ‘DE’ HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; ‘IN’ HSBC Securities and

Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; ‘JP’ HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; ‘EG’ HSBC Securities Egypt

SAE, Cairo; ‘CN’ HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai

Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul

Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South

Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; ‘US’ HSBC Securities (USA)

Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC México, SA, Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo

Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Brasil SA – Banco Múltiplo; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC

Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in

Hong Kong SAR; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Bangkok Branch

Issuer of report

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Europe

Consumer Brands & Retail

Head of Consumer Brands and Retail Equity Research Antoine Belge +33 1 56 52 43 47 [email protected]

Analyst Anne-Laure Bismuth +44 207 991 6587 [email protected]

Head of Consumer Retail, Europe David McCarthy +44 207 992 1326 [email protected]

Analyst Andrew Porteous +44 20 7992 4647 [email protected]

Analyst Paul Rossington +44 20 7991 6734 [email protected]

Analyst Jérôme Samuel +33 1 56 52 44 23 [email protected]

Analyst Emmanuelle Vigneron +33 1 56 52 43 19 [email protected]

Analyst Graham Jones +44 20 7992 5347 [email protected]

Analyst Damian McNeela +44 20 7992 4223 [email protected]

Analyst - Beverages Anthony Bucalo +44 20 7991 9815 [email protected]

Analyst Lena Thakkar +44 20 7991 3448 [email protected]

Analyst Joe Thomas +44 20 7992 3618 [email protected]

CEEMEA

Consumer Brands & Retail

Analyst Bulent Yurdagul +90 212 3764612 [email protected]

Analyst Jeanine Womersley +27 21 6741082 [email protected]

Analyst Ankur P Agarwal +966 11 299 2103 [email protected]

Analyst Yazeed Al Turki +966 11 299 2260 [email protected]

Asia

Consumer Brands & Retail

Head of Consumer Brands and Retail Equity Research Erwan Rambourg +852 2996 6572 [email protected]

Analyst Christopher Leung +852 2996 6531 [email protected]

Analyst Lina Yan +852 2822 4344 [email protected]

Analyst Catherine Chao +852 2996 6570 [email protected]

Analyst Charlene Liu +65 6658 0615 [email protected]

Scott Chan +852 3941 7005 [email protected]

Analyst Karen Choi +822 3706 8781 [email protected]

Analyst Permada (Mada) Darmono +65 6658 0613 [email protected]

Analyst Selviana Aripin +65 6658 0610 [email protected]

Analyst Amit Sachdeva +91 22 2268 1240 [email protected]

Analyst Kuldeep Gangwar +91 22 3396 0686 [email protected]

Analyst Chloe Wu +8862 6631 2866 [email protected]

Associate Jenny Chae +822 3706 8774 [email protected]

North & Latin America

Consumer & Retail

Analyst Richard Cathcart +55 11 2169 4429 [email protected]

Associate Ana C Hernandez +52 55 5721 2745 [email protected]

Associate Mariana Vergueiro +55 11 3847 6066 [email protected]

Food & Beverage

Global Head of Beverages Research Carlos Laboy +1 212 525 6972 [email protected]

Analyst Andrew Muench +1 212 525 4866 [email protected]

Agricultural Products

Analyst Ravi Jain +1 212 525 3442 [email protected]

Analyst Gustavo Gregori +55 11 3847 9881 [email protected]

Specialist Sales

David Harrington +44 20 7991 5389 [email protected]

Jean Gael Tabet +44 20 7991 5342 [email protected]

Global Consumer Brands & Retail Research Team